A Clash of Crooks: Littlefinger hiding behind Varys' shadow?

[Daeron the Daring]

Littlefinger, ever since he was bested by Brandon Stark in that infamous duel, has been constantly seeking ways of securing more and more power to his name.

He succeeded at breaking the steps of the societal ladder, but couldn't get what he ultimately wanted: Catelyn.

It doesn't take much to figure out that his ultimate goal had always been Catelyn's hand. However, since she's in her Lady Stoneheart period, and considered dead, it is Sansa who is the 'furtunate' inheritor of Littlefinger's attention and care. It does seem genuine (may or may not be romantic as well), and it feels like Petyr once again sees noone ahead of him he couldn't cross, or wouldn't want to. 

He wants Tyrion dead, but he harbors Joffrey's murderer, whom he intends to put in charge of Winterfell. It's easy to see he wants to get on Sansa's good side: His power comes from the Lordship of Harrenhal and the overlordship of the Riverlands, but it was given to him by the Lannisters, who don't seem too likely to keep the crown. There's nothing and noone to reassure him of this position thou, and considering that the other half of his power comes from his regency over Robert Arryn (whom he sees as a dead man walking), it's easy to se4e he can lose it all.

But that's just another reason to be on Sansa's good side, once she becomes a player, who, besides the North and Winterfell, has a good claim on the Riverlands as well as on Harrenhal (altough an alive Edmure is much more likely to get all that back), through her grandmother, Minisa Whent (altough Robert Arryn is already a stronger claimant, being a male). Just the domains of Petyr.

Either way, the ground is slippery under him, and he desperately needs a confirmation of his authority over almost everything he owns, once the Lannisters are done in King's Landing. But it's not like they aren't in his way too.

So what I'm ultimately asking is: Is there a reason why he, and his plans couldn't fit into whatever Varys has been planning for the Targaryens? 

The two reasons I see are Tyrion and Daenerys' thirst for blood.

Tyrion IS married to Sansa, but that marriage is relatively easy to dispose of, even with a Tyrion who returns to Westeros.

And of course, if Daenerys ever gets to Westeros, she should be over her "I will avenge my family on anyone I find" period, especially because of Tyrion.

So, does anyone see why wouldn't Littlefinger couldn't fit his own visions and plans into Varys'/an invading Targaryen's? Or why Varys wouldn't allow that?

And could he actually dodge all the bullets, and make it to the 'winning' side, along with his protegee, Sansa? He is a player, after all, and his skillset makes him more than capable of pulling this much off.

 

[Craving Peaches]

23 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

So what I'm ultimately asking is: Is there a reason why he, and his plans couldn't fit into whatever Varys has been planning for the Targaryens? 

Crack Theory: Littlefinger has become aware that Varys is a part of the cabal secretly purging the middle classes of Westeros, in order to stall any societal progress and keep Westeros in the late medieval era forever.

In all seriousness, I think Littlefinger could maybe make it work under the Targaryens, but based on how Varys speaks of him I get the impression Varys doesn't trust him, which means that he could pre-emptively poison F/Aegon's opinion of him. Tyrion didn't trust him either, so Daenerys might be biased against him by the time she gets there. So he would have a lot of work to do to get them to see him in a favourable light.

26 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

And could he actually dodge all the bullets, and make it to the 'winning' side, along with his protegee, Sansa? He is a player, after all, and his skillset makes him more than capable of pulling this much off.

Maybe, but he has donned so much plot armour already, it needs to fall off at some point. Though it would be funny since we have all these people eagerly awaiting his downfall, if the books ended with Littlefinger still in power and doing better than ever.

"All rise for his Grace, Petyr of the House Baelish, First of his name..."

[Daeron the Daring]

38 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

In all seriousness, I think Littlefinger could maybe make it work under the Targaryens, but based on how Varys speaks of him I get the impression Varys doesn't trust him, which means that he could pre-emptively poison F/Aegon's opinion of him. Tyrion didn't trust him either, so Daenerys might be biased against him by the time she gets there. So he would have a lot of work to do to get them to see him in a favourable light.

Both Littlefinger and Varys think they are one step ahead of the other, and while we know how deep Varys can see, Petyr is a bigger mistery in these matters.

He's confident, and he is yet to make a mistake.

To me it seems, he is at the very leats a big enough obstacle that Varys wouldn't want to tackle, especially if he doesn't have to. 

And if the triple alliance of the Starks, Arryns and Tullys goes in motion (fully or partially), his death will hardly solve anything for Aegon/Daenerys, and with an increasing amount of attention needed to be paid to what's coming from beyond the Wall, it becomes quite obvious that all sides better reconcile than wage war in the Winter. Something they don't need the Others to see is  easily beneficial for both sides, with a little sacrifice and the burial of grudges.

[Aebram]

11 hours ago, Daeron the Daring said:

he harbors Joffrey's murderer, whom he intends to put in charge of Winterfell.

Who are you referring to? I thought that the details of the murder conspiracy are still something of a mystery.

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

I think the question is, what is little finger willing to be content with?

I don't think he believed Cersei would muck everything up so much. The Death of Tywin was an unexpected variable. His living would have meant a relative time of peace.

A peace where little finger could: 

1. Secure the north via Sansa

2. The Vale via Sansa marrying Harry the Heir

3. His own ownership as lord paramount of the Riverlands

4. Uniting these lands by impregnating Sansa with is own child, and leaving his lands to that child. (I know its disturbing, but he is attracted to her and seems likely to be planning this)

From there, he very well might conspire to make his secret child the new king, but I doubt he believes he could seize the crown himself.

Varys plans do not exclude his own. 

Maybe little finger and Varys are then more like two schemers who only haven't butt heads because their plans are for different halves of the kingdom.

Edited July 27, 2023 by Targaryeninkingslanding

[Nevets]

I think Littlefinger's ultimate goal is to gain as much power as possible while assuming the least amount of responsibility as he can get away with.  He doesn't want to be King.  He wants to be the guy standing behind the king whispering in his ear.

Lord of Harrenhal is a title, and a very useful one.  It gave him the status he needed to be able to marry Lysa and become Robert's guardian and Lord Protector of the Vale.  That title does not depend on the Lannisters.  Harrenhal isn't worth that much to him. He has no desire to be in charge of the Riverlands; it's an economically wrecked war zone.

Catelyn/Sansa isn't so much an ultimate goal as an unhealthy obsession.  And it's an obsession that will lead to his doom.  He regards Sansa as his protege and future partner.  He'll teach her everything he knows, and she'll turn around and use those skills and knowledge to take him down.  She will realize he is venal, uncaring, depraved, and dangerous.

Any plans Littlefinger might have for supporting Aegon would depend on Sansa's cooperation, which would not necessarily be forthcoming.  Her interest is the North.  Kings Landing is in the rear view and likely to stay there.  By the way, her marriage to Tyrion could still be an obstacle to a remarriage.  It might get annulled, but that's not a foregone conclusion.  And if Sansa doesn't wish to remarry, she could easily drag her feet on the matter.

 

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

I feel like Sansa wouldn't mind marrying handsome prince faegon though. Them already having Tyrion will make it easier to get annulled, especially if the high septon decides he likes faegon as well.

I think rulership of the riverlands is just another pride thing. Lord Tully would never let him have his daughters, for his low birth, and is now ruler of the riverlands.

I do agree Sansa is his doom though. Just like the robin's toy giant she defeated, the man whose sigil is a titan of bravos is similarly doomed

[Daeron the Daring]

5 hours ago, Aebram said:

Who are you referring to? I thought that the details of the murder conspiracy are still something of a mystery.

It isn't. The Tyrells did it, and Petyr at least knew around everything about it.

But what I was saying is that the Crown deemed Sansa as Tyrion's right hand in Joffrey's murder, making Sansa a public enemy of the Lannisters. 

Which makes Littlefinger lose his partnership with them, once he reveals who Alayne is.

[Daeron the Daring]

5 hours ago, Nevets said:

That title does not depend on the Lannisters.

It does thou. Lady Shella Whent wa stripped of her title, and Petyr just recently got his hands on Harrenhal. There is noone in the world who would reinforce his claim over Harrenhal but the Lannisters, because he got it for doing something for them. My point is that if the Tullys were to be restored by anyone, he could hardly keep anything.

5 hours ago, Nevets said:

Harrenhal isn't worth that much to him.

Harrenhal and the lands belonging to it are jackpot. A long-term investment, sure, and it served his short-term goals well, but that doesn't mean he would just throw away a literal fortune because he simply doesn't care.

Harrenhal is worth to him as much as it is worth. And once things settle, it becomes much more than what it nowadays is.

5 hours ago, Nevets said:

Catelyn/Sansa isn't so much an ultimate goal as an unhealthy obsession.

I don't see how or why couldn't it be both.

 

5 hours ago, Nevets said:

He regards Sansa as his protege and future partner.  He'll teach her everything he knows, and she'll turn around and use those skills and knowledge to take him down.  She will realize he is venal, uncaring, depraved, and dangerous.

Any plans Littlefinger might have for supporting Aegon would depend on Sansa's cooperation, which would not necessarily be forthcoming.  Her interest is the North.  Kings Landing is in the rear view and likely to stay there.  By the way, her marriage to Tyrion could still be an obstacle to a remarriage.  It might get annulled, but that's not a foregone conclusion.  And if Sansa doesn't wish to remarry, she could easily drag her feet on the matter.

I am yet to see why things should play out this way. Because it's meant to be? 

What I'm saying is that bad people, for example, and especially people like Petyr could very easily end up on the ultimately winning side. We almost take it for granted that villains will all pay for what they did, but they almost never do. Not IRL, nor in Westeros.

[The hairy bear]

24 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

We almost take it for granted that villains will all pay for what they did, but they almost never do. Not IRL, nor in Westeros.

You are right, of course, but I don't think Littlefinger can manage to survive. He has betrayed far too many people, and his lies will eventually surface.

He betrayed all his benefactors: first Hoster Tully by deflowering his daughter, then Jon Arryn and Lysa by murdering them. He also betrayed the Starks (leading to Ned's execution), the Lannisters (playing a part in Joffrey's murder), and the Tyrells (by helping Sansa Stark escape).

If Stannis prevails, he'll have something to say about the man who spread the rumour that Shireen had been fathered by Patchface. And if it's Dany who comes out on top, Varys will tell her that he advocated for her assassination on Robert's Small Council, and Tyrion will not have forgotten about the dagger.

IMHO, he is already in a dire situation, even if he doesn't realize it.

Edited July 27, 2023 by The hairy bear

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

9 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

If Stannis prevails, he'll have something to say about the man who spread the rumour that Shireen had been fathered by Patchface. And if it's Dany who comes out on top, Varys will tell her that he advocated for her assassination on Robert's Small Council, and Tyrion will not have forgotten about the dagger.

 

do we have any indication that Stannis knows it was little finger who came up with that rumor? alive, only Cersei and Tyrion and Varys should know besides little finger, and how likely are any of the three to tell that to stannis? and if they do, how likely is stannis to trust them? 

[Daeron the Daring]

On 7/27/2023 at 1:01 PM, The hairy bear said:

He betrayed all his benefactors:

True, but:

On 7/27/2023 at 1:01 PM, The hairy bear said:

first Hoster Tully by deflowering his daughter,

Doesn't matter.

On 7/27/2023 at 1:01 PM, The hairy bear said:

Jon Arryn and Lysa by murdering them.

Doesn't matter either.

On 7/27/2023 at 1:01 PM, The hairy bear said:

He also betrayed the Starks (leading to Ned's execution)

Doesn't matter.

On 7/27/2023 at 1:01 PM, The hairy bear said:

the Lannisters (playing a part in Joffrey's murder),

He betrayed them in far too many ways to count, but they still don't matter.

Littlefinger made the mistake of actually entrusting Sansa with a lot of shit. If he can handle her, or at least be far enough to not suffer from the possible nuclear meltdown of intricacies caused by Sansa.

Varys, as we see it, shouldn't have anything against him, except the possible petty rivalry they may have had at court. If Petyr can offer a third of Westeros to Daenerys/Aegon, with possibly no strings attached, just for his survival and prevail, then I find no reason why anyone would object.

Edited August 4, 2023 by Daeron the Daring

[The hairy bear]

1 hour ago, Daeron the Daring said:

 If Petyr can offer a third of Westeros to Daenerys/Aegon

But he can't, can he? If the Lannister regime falls, exactly 0 riverlords and at most a couple of lords from the Vale would follow him.

For a Targaryen invader who wants the backing of the lords of the Vale, it seems to me that it would be wiser to negotiate with Lord Royce than with Littlefinger.

1 hour ago, Daeron the Daring said:

 then I find no reason why anyone would object.

The story seem to lead to Jon Snow becoming Dany's lover (the HotU prophecy) and Tyrion becoming a trusted advisor of hers (her knowledge about dragons and saddles). They would object.

And as you say, Littlefinger has foolshly confided a lot of his crimes to Sansa, and she is also likely to object.

[Daeron the Daring]

9 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

But he can't, can he? If the Lannister regime falls, exactly 0 riverlords and at most a couple of lords from the Vale would follow him.

For a Targaryen invader who wants the backing of the lords of the Vale, it seems to me that it would be wiser to negotiate with Lord Royce than with Littlefinger

No, not necesarilly.

If Harry does become Lord of the Vale, he will be indebted by Petyr. The reason is Sansa. At the same time, once a Stark restoration rolls trough the North, it becomes inevitable that the Vale and the North Act together. And he wouldn't even need Sansa to be Lady of Winterfell. Family all around, and the same goes for the Riverlands, as she is a Tully trough Catelyn.

The point I'm making is that Sansa is his most valuable asset, once and if the Lannister regime is out of picture.