Renly was never going to succeed as king

[sifth]

The one thing I don't like about Renly, is the fact that he doesn't believe in the incest and is just taking the crown, because he wants it. It's not even a survival thing, because he could have linked up his army with Stannis or Robb, without ever declaring himself king. Instead he takes advantage of Robb and Tywin fighting each other, to gain power for himself.

[James Steller]

19 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

secondly, he could 'extract' a confession from Cersei (or if Cersei kills herself like she suggested when Stannis was coming it makes her look guilty).

So, his claim to the throne rests on the use of brute force and torture. The only way he seems better than any of the others so far is because he’s more charming than them.

19 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

 

It is a fact the religion of R'hlorr is actively hostile to all other religions though. They go around burning Septs and Weirwoods and people and Stannis is promoting this. It is awful PR for Stannis. The followers of the Seven and the Old Gods have been tolerating  each other for a while now. We don't see Septons chopping down Weirwoods or Old Gods followers burning down Septs. The only other religion that reaches this level of intolerance is the Faith of the Drowned God.

 

The Faith of the Seven was horrifically bigoted. They burned or cut down most of the weirwoods during the Andal conquest. That’s like saying Christianity is pretty tolerant of pagan faiths nowadays while discounting hundreds of years of colonization, appropriation, and persecution prior to the milder present day. 
 

 

[sweetsunray]

32 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

The followers of the Seven and the Old Gods have been tolerating  each other for a while now. We don't see Septons chopping down Weirwoods or Old Gods followers burning down Septs.

They did those things though. And at the Wall it's used to foment mutinous sentiment against a FM LC who keeps to the Old Gods.

[sweetsunray]

37 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

That gave Renly nothing, because Renly is already legally the heir as brothers come before daughters when it comes to the Throne, which you'd think Stannis would know since he knows about the Dance and its consequences.

Why should Renly get more than what he has a legal right to? Stannis' generosity is that he will forgive his brother's illegal claim to rule as a younger brother. Given that Stannis did chop off the fingers of the man who saved him by smuggling onions, that is very generous from Stannis.

[Craving Peaches]

1 minute ago, sweetsunray said:

They did those things though. And at the Wall it's used to foment mutinous sentiment against a FM LC who keeps to the Old Gods.

Yes they did bad things, just like the followers of the Old God's practiced human sacrifice, but they don't anymore, unlike the followers of R'hlorr and the Drowned Gods.

[Craving Peaches]

@sweetsunray and @James Steller the point I was trying to make is the the Faith and religion of the Old Gods have 'reformed' and no longer carry out brutal practices such as human sacrifice and destruction of religious property and persecution of each other but the Red Faith and Religion of the Drowned God have not. So I don't really accept the argument that the Faith is just as bad or the Red Faith is not that bad.

[sifth]

1 minute ago, Craving Peaches said:

Yes they did bad things, just like the followers of the Old God's practiced human sacrifice, but they don't anymore, unlike the followers of R'hlorr and the Drowned Gods.

I mean thanks to Cersei the Faith of the Seven, is back to doing f'd up stuff. Every religion in the series has it's dark parts, just like the real world, lol

Plus the R'hllor religion isn't all so bad. Thoros and Beric seem like really nice and honorable guys and they worship the red god. I'm not a huge fan of Mel either, but I blame her using the religion as an excuse to do the f'd up things she does, than I do the religion itself.

[sweetsunray]

39 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

the fact that Renly is likeable and charismatic unlike Stannis.

Charisma is irrelevant in a feudal society with ruling being based primarily on birth right and birth order. It's the one thing it's actually got going: no populistic charmers that con a majority of a population at least. A person can be boring, ugly, and lacking social skills and still be king and perhaps even good at it.

As for likeable: who really "likes" Renly? It seems that most people who "like" Renly are opportunists, greedy vain power seekers (Mace Tyrell), conmen like LF, and in its most benign form summer knight seeking glory and fame. The question is why do so many opportunists "like" Renly? Because they believe he is coruptable and amenable. I really don't think that's what you want in a king. Westeros already had that with Robert and other Targ kings (Aegon IV, Viserys I)

It's interesting that when Renly makes this argument to Cat he adds at the end he wants loyalty, fealty and service.

Of the 20000 men Renly had with him at SE, only a 5th remained loyal, aka 4000 men. The other 16000 went over to Stannis. And then the family he married into, arranges for a new marriage to the King that they were marching on with Renly, and gain offices of power on Joff's small council, and eventually Tommen's.

So, I don't see Renly having had much people who were loyal to him at all. Heck even Cortnay Penrose held out on surrendering SE because of loyalty to Renly. It was for Edric Storm.

There are truly only two people who loved Renly, and their love was a romantic one - Brienne and Loras.

Surprisingly enough Stannis actually manages to acquire more men who are deeply loyal to him, who actually give him fealty and service. And it's not because they "fear" him. It's because they have "respect" for Stannis. And those who "love" him, do so without romantic feelings.

 

 

[Craving Peaches]

51 minutes ago, sifth said:

I mean thanks to Cersei the Faith of the Seven, is back to doing f'd up stuff

What exactly has it done? So far they have provided aid to the poor. The only immortal thing they have done so far to my knowledge is torture a confession out of a murderer and imprison and punish a guilty woman. The Walk of Shame was not nice but I really cannot muster much sympathy for Cersei.

1 hour ago, James Steller said:

So, his claim to the throne rests on the use of brute force and torture. The only way he seems better than any of the others so far is because he’s more charming than them.

Stannis would have to do the exact same if he wanted any proof, otherwise in the eyes of everyone he is just doing exactly what Renly was. Also, multiple other people's claims rest on 'brute force' both in universe and in the real world.

1 hour ago, James Steller said:

That’s like saying Christianity is pretty tolerant of pagan faiths nowadays while discounting hundreds of years of colonization, appropriation, and persecution prior to the milder present day. 

Pagan faiths weren't always tolerant of Christians either. Look at the Roman Empire. The point is they have become tolerant, unlike the Red Faith.

51 minutes ago, sifth said:

but I blame her using the religion as an excuse to do the f'd up things she does, than I do the religion itself.

Burning things does not seem to be restricted to Mel though. Salladhor Saan mentions they are always burning things. 

Edited September 10, 2023 by Craving Peaches

[sweetsunray]

3 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

The point is they have become tolerant, unlike the Red Faith.

As far as we know, the Red Faith operates alongside a whole lot of other religions in most of the Free Cities. The only real zealous one is Mel, who basically seems to "melfunction"

[sifth]

1 minute ago, Craving Peaches said:

What exactly has it done? So far they have provided aid to the poor. The only immortal thing they have done so far too my knowledge is torture a confession out of a murderer and imprison and punish a guilty woman. The Walk of Shame was not nice but I really cannot muster much sympathy for Cersei.

Nothing major as of yet, but it's clear they are a powder cage waiting to go off.

You actually think the High Sparrow is anything less than an insane zealot? The history books make it pretty clear what happened the last time, the Faith had it's own military and the high sparrow loves what they did.

[Alester Florent]

4 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Just like Aegon I and Maegor Aegon II and Robert then? Not to mention multiple real life examples such as Macbeth. Yet we don't see the Realm deciding to go into civil war every generation from then on. Also, Renly can very easily set himself up as the 'true heir' by adopting the incest story but with better proof (i.e. the book of lineages and confession from Cersei obtained under interrogation), and excluding Stannis based on religion, as King Jaehaerys promised the Crown would defend the Faith and Stannis attacked the Faith.

 

Perhaps not the best example you could have chosen in Macbeth, given that the next forty years after his death saw every succession disputed and all the next four kings killed violently!

I think the success of Renly's venture rests entirely on his performance as king. His position as younger son is not insuperable: it's not that long since Aegon V was crowned, bypassing Maegor and Aemon, who undoubtedly had better dynastic claims, and that didn't cause a massive upheaval in Westerosi noble society or major civil wars (save for the perennial Blackfyres, who are unrelated). If Renly reigns for forty-odd years, is generally popular, and leaves behind a clear adult heir then it probably passes off without a hitch. Retrospective justifications like those you mention will be applied to his accession. But if he goes for only ten or so (or less), and leaves behind an unclear succession or a child heir, you're going to see the same chaos as on Robert's death.

I do think Renly has the ingredients to be a good and successful king, including the youth necessary to rule for a long time. Unfortunately, there are some factors outside his control that are going to give him problems: firstly, the impending winter, which would sorely test him and might be taken by some more superstitious subjects as a divine judgement on him for the usurpation, potentially eroding his support; secondly, the coming attack of the Others; thirdly, at some point presumably Dany is going to pitch up with actual dragons. I don't know if he could realistically deal with all of that... because I'm not sure anyone could.

Edited September 10, 2023 by Alester Florent

[sifth]

5 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Burning things does not seem to be restricted to Mel though. Salladhor Saan mentions they are always burning things. 

Yea, but the guy is also full of crap, a lot of times also. Advising Stannis to take Kings Landing and how easy it would be, because Tyrion is such a weak and stupid Hand. I trust his info as conjecture at best.

[Craving Peaches]

43 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Charisma is irrelevant in a feudal society

No it is not. If you lack it people are far less likely to follow you. Charisma was not irrelevant in real life feudal society so why would it be so in the books? Lack of charisma is one of the reasons for Stannis' lack of support.

43 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

As for likeable: who really "likes" Renly?

Quote

When Lord Renly climbed to his feet, the commons cheered wildly, for King Robert's handsome young brother was a great favorite. 

Quote

"Those swords are sworn to Renly. They love my charming young brother, as they once loved Robert . . . and as they have never loved me."

Quote

"Is their love for us any greater?" asked Cersei.

"Scarcely," said Tyrion. "They loved Renly, clearly, but Renly is slain. Perhaps we can give them good and sufficient reasons to prefer Joffrey to Stannis . . . if we move quickly."

Quote

"If that is so, why is the Knight of Flowers not among you? And where is Mathis Rowan? Randyll Tarly? Lady Oakheart? Why are they not here in your company, they who loved Renly best? Where is Brienne of Tarth, I ask you?"

Quote

What do the smallfolk say of Renly's death?"

"They grieve. Your brother was well loved."

The books are really clear that people genuinely loved Renly, we are told so multiple times.

43 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Of the 20000 men Renly had with him at SE, only a 5th remained loyal, aka 4000 men. The other 16000 went over to Stannis

Quote

His own men hardly fought, they say. Some ran but more bent the knee and went over, shouting for Lord Renly

Edited September 10, 2023 by Craving Peaches

[Alester Florent]

32 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Of the 20000 men Renly had with him at SE, only a 5th remained loyal, aka 4000 men. The other 16000 went over to Stannis. And then the family he married into, arranges for a new marriage to the King that they were marching on with Renly, and gain offices of power on Joff's small council, and eventually Tommen's.

So, I don't see Renly having had much people who were loyal to him at all. Heck even Cortnay Penrose held out on surrendering SE because of loyalty to Renly. It was for Edric Storm.

Renly's dead. There's nothing left for them to be loyal to. He didn't leave a real heir. Remember that Renly's followers think he was killed by Brienne and/or Cat; Stannis is not a suspect. For the Stormlords in particular, they're completely leaderless and casting around for someone else to rally them: it's not surprising they turn to Stannis.

Ser Cortnay was clearly loyal to Renly, but like the other Stormlanders, Renly's death left him bereft and with nowhere obvious to turn.

If Renly had left a child, even a young one, I can absolutely imagine the Stormlords backing them in preference to Stannis, out of residual loyalty to Renly and to their rightful lord, in much the same way that the Flints are willing to march through a blizzard for the sake of the Ned's little girl.

Almost all those same Stormlords who went over to Stannis desert him immediately the moment they get an inkling that Renly might in fact be alive.

That doesn't speak to someone who doesn't command loyalty.

[Craving Peaches]

30 minutes ago, sifth said:

Yea, but the guy is also full of crap, a lot of times also.

There's nothing to indicate he was lysing in this instance though.

34 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Perhaps not the best example you could have chosen in Macbeth, given that the next forty years after his death saw every succession disputed and all the next four kings killed violently!

I was thinking of another Scottish king but I couldn't remember. The point I was trying to make is that multiple people have all done what Renly was trying to do before and it does not lead to what people say will happen with everyone ever suddenly deciding to permanently forgo law and order, plus Renly has a way to set himself up as the 'legitimate' heir anyway.

36 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

As far as we know, the Red Faith operates alongside a whole lot of other religions in most of the Free Cities. The only real zealous one is Mel, who basically seems to "melfunction"

Because they are forced to by city authorities, not because they chose to.

Quote

 in Qohor followers of the red priests had rioted and tried to burn down the Black Goat.

[Craving Peaches]

1 hour ago, sifth said:

The one thing I don't like about Renly, is the fact that he doesn't believe in the incest and is just taking the crown, because he wants it. It's not even a survival thing, because he could have linked up his army with Stannis or Robb, without ever declaring himself king. Instead he takes advantage of Robb and Tywin fighting each other, to gain power for himself.

He could not have linked up with Stannis initially because Stannis told him nothing. By the time he can actually link up with Stannis he risks throwing away ~80,000 just for ~5000. And the timeline suggests he was king before word of Robb's victories reached anyone and certainly before Robb crowned himself king. He might even have been crowned before he knew for sure Robb and Tywin were fighting.

[Alester Florent]

4 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I was thinking of another Scottish king but I couldn't remember.

Edgar, perhaps? Overthrew his uncle, imprisoned his elder brother, and thereafter the succession was stable for nearly 200 years until Alexander III selfishly rode off a cliff.

[Craving Peaches]

5 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Alexander III selfishly rode off a cliff

I have a completely unsubstantiated theory that he was murdered but...

[sweetsunray]

8 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Renly's dead. There's nothing left for them to be loyal to. He didn't leave a real heir. Remember that Renly's followers think he was killed by Brienne and/or Cat; Stannis is not a suspect. For the Stormlords in particular, they're completely leaderless and casting around for someone else to rally them: it's not surprising they turn to Stannis.

Ser Cortnay was clearly loyal to Renly, but like the other Stormlanders, Renly's death left him bereft and with nowhere obvious to turn.

If Renly had left a child, even a young one, I can absolutely imagine the Stormlords backing them in preference to Stannis, out of residual loyalty to Renly and to their rightful lord, in much the same way that the Flints are willing to march through a blizzard for the sake of the Ned's little girl.

Almost all those same Stormlords who went over to Stannis desert him immediately the moment they get an inkling that Renly might in fact be alive.

That doesn't speak to someone who doesn't command loyalty.

1) Why then did 4000 not go over to Stannis

2) Ser Cortnay offered to bend the knee to any king who would send him help, because he feared for Edric Storm. This was not out of loyalty to Renly or to a potential other Baratheon heir. If that was the case he could have attempted to proclaim Edric Storm as claimant and get the Tyrells to smash Stannis at the Walls of SE. 

3) I did not claim that the 16000 who went over to Stannis were loyal ones. Even Stannis did not believe that or expected they would be. My point was that those 16000 were opportunistic. 

4) A man who manages to get 4000 men to march in the freezing cold to a crofter's village and have them remain there as they starve without mutiny commands loyalty, period. That's why they ended up being dubbed as King's Men. On top of that both castellans of Dragonstone and Storm's End remain loyal as well. They know that Stannis will not return and basically abandoned them. Heck he even has the Antler Men inside KL working of their own volition to try and help him acquire KL.

Note: I'm not claiming that Stannis is popular or better. I'm saying that Stannis proves to be far better in acquiring exactly what Renly desires from bannermen than Renly made Stannis out to be capable of to Cat before he was assassinated. And that Renly's popularity and charm didn't do much for him in that department than could be expected from his opportunistic in-laws and bannermen.

Edited September 11, 2023 by sweetsunray