How much does Shadrich know?

[Sandy Clegg]

The Shadrich/HR theory kind of assumes that he is playing a role, not acting strictly as himself. That’s kind of the point. His stature and seemingly above average cunning are the key here, not superficial looks that can be part of mummers gear.

Also worthy of note is the fact that he makes it to Sansa where Brienne falls short. If he is a mere sellsword this feels a little odd, narratively. His success marks him out for scrutiny therefore.
 

He tests Brienne out but ultimately decides her blunt bull-headed approach is counterproductive and might put Sansa in jeopardy even. It’s kind of important to this guy that he do this mission properly. As HR might feel about the safety of one of Ned’s children.

As for seeing no narrative purpose? I think this is just called ‘not being GRRM’. A problem we must all face. If there’s a story to be told, George will tell it. 

Edited November 14, 2023 by Sandy Clegg

[Nevets]

1 hour ago, Sandy Clegg said:

The Shadrich/HR theory kind of assumes that he is playing a role, not acting strictly as himself. That’s kind of the point. His stature and seemingly above average cunning are the key here, not superficial looks that can be part of mummers gear.

Also worthy of note is the fact that he makes it to Sansa where Brienne falls short. If he is a mere sellsword this feels a little odd, narratively. His success marks him out for scrutiny therefore.
 

He tests Brienne out but ultimately decides her blunt bull-headed approach is counterproductive and might put Sansa in jeopardy even. It’s kind of important to this guy that he do this mission properly. As HR might feel about the safety of one of Ned’s children.

As for seeing no narrative purpose? I think this is just called ‘not being GRRM’. A problem we must all face. If there’s a story to be told, George will tell it. 

Why would Howland change his appearance?  Nobody is looking for him, and no one knows what he looks like anyway.  I'm looking for clues to point me to him being Howland and I'm not finding anything.  And appearance is a clue GRRM likes to use.  His stature and (supposed) cunning are nowhere near specific enough.

He straight out tells Brienne he's interested in Sansa and offers to bring her along, and Brienne is the one being obvious?  At least she isn't telling total strangers what she's up to and inviting them along.  What if she accepts?  He has to ditch her, or maybe try to kill her if she's too persistent, which might be difficult. She's bigger, better equipped, and probably more skilled than he is.

I can figure out a clear narrative purpose for just about every secret identity that is taken halfway seriously. I can't figure one out here.  It makes far more sense that Howland is in the North somewhere and that Shadrich is a hedge knight that maybe got lucky.  

[Phylum of Alexandria]

On 11/13/2023 at 2:00 PM, Nevets said:

GRRM is pretty good about giving us hints about secret identities.  These revolve around descriptions, locations, and activities that clearly match up.  We have no description for Howland himself, but we do for his children, and they don't match up well.

Sometimes GRRM uses looks for the purpose of deflection though, to make his secret identity less obvious. Jon resembles Ned and Arya, so he passes both in-story and to many readers as Ned's son. We don't see anything in Jon that's obviously reflective of Rhaegar. 

On 11/13/2023 at 2:00 PM, Nevets said:

I think Shadrich is simply a hedge knight in search of a payday.  I doubt he's actively searching for Sansa, though he'd be happy to take the reward if he found her.  I think he is in the Vale because it's a steady job.  That Sansa is there is coincidental (GRRM does like his coincidences).  Storywise, he's a red herring to distract us from other more real threats, most likely including Baelish.

I'd say this passage from TWOW suggests otherwise.

Spoiler

Just thinking about it was enough to make her head spin. Alayne turned abruptly from the yard… and bumped into a short, sharp-faced man with a brush of orange hair who had come up behind her. His hand shot out and caught her arm before she could fall. “My lady. My pardons if I took you unawares.”

[This wasn't a chance stumble; he zeroed in on Sansa]

“The fault was mine. I did not see you standing there.”

“We mice are quiet creatures.” Ser Shadrich was so short that he might have been taken for a squire, but his face belonged to a much older man. She saw long leagues in the wrinkles at the corner of his mouth, old battles in the scar beneath his ear, and a hardness behind the eyes that no boy would ever have. This was a man grown. Even Randa overtopped him, though.

“Will you be seeking wings?” the Royce girl said.

“A mouse with wings would be a silly sight.”

“Perhaps you will try the melee instead?” Alayne suggested. The melee was an afterthought, a sop for all the brothers, uncles, fathers, and friends who had accompanied the competitors to the Gates of the Moon to see them win their silver wings, but there would be prizes for the champions, and a chance to win ransoms.

“A good melee is all a hedge knight can hope for, unless he stumbles on a bag of dragons. And that’s not likely, is it?” (wink wink)

 

[Hippocras]

15 hours ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

 

I'd say this passage from TWOW suggests otherwise.

  Hide contents

Just thinking about it was enough to make her head spin. Alayne turned abruptly from the yard… and bumped into a short, sharp-faced man with a brush of orange hair who had come up behind her. His hand shot out and caught her arm before she could fall. “My lady. My pardons if I took you unawares.”

[This wasn't a chance stumble; he zeroed in on Sansa]

“The fault was mine. I did not see you standing there.”

“We mice are quiet creatures.” Ser Shadrich was so short that he might have been taken for a squire, but his face belonged to a much older man. She saw long leagues in the wrinkles at the corner of his mouth, old battles in the scar beneath his ear, and a hardness behind the eyes that no boy would ever have. This was a man grown. Even Randa overtopped him, though.

“Will you be seeking wings?” the Royce girl said.

“A mouse with wings would be a silly sight.”

“Perhaps you will try the melee instead?” Alayne suggested. The melee was an afterthought, a sop for all the brothers, uncles, fathers, and friends who had accompanied the competitors to the Gates of the Moon to see them win their silver wings, but there would be prizes for the champions, and a chance to win ransoms.

“A good melee is all a hedge knight can hope for, unless he stumbles on a bag of dragons. And that’s not likely, is it?” (wink wink)

 

I think it is probably true that he is looking for Sansa. I just don't think he needs to be hiding his identity to do that. He can be looking for Sansa, be selling information to some other player (so acting as a spy), and still himself be just Shadrich.

Basically the only secret identity for Shadrich that I am somewhat warm to is a Frey identity. That would make sense, given that some branches of the Frey family that are high up on the line of succession are deeply connected via mothers to Vale families. So it might be that those Freys were in the Vale rather than the Riverlands when the Red Wedding went down. Since the Freys are, at this point in the story, all out to murder each other, it would make sense that a Frey might see an opportunity to hide their identity and seek out cousins or half-brothers in the Vale who might need to be eliminated if they are to inherit.

There are several Freys who may not be well-known by appearance in the Vale. For example, Aegon Bloodborn. He has been living as an outlaw for an unknown amount of time. He is the son of the third son of Lord Walder and his first wife (a Royce), and in order to inherit the Twins, his two older uncles and their sons would need to die. Several already have. The younger of those older uncles (Walton) and/or his sons might well be expected to show up in the Vale for the tournament as his mother was a Waynwood and his wife a Hardyng. Walton's grandmother was of course a Royce. As an outlaw, Bloodborn could easily have been living as a hedge knight. He would also have heard about a reward for finding Sansa and would see finding her as a way to regain legitimacy and his place in the Twins succession. I even get the sick creepy feeling that if this notion turns out to be right, Sansa will end up forced to marry a Frey to keep her presence in the Vale and her identity secret from Cersei.

Shardich is fox-faced. Freys are fox-faced.

Frey Succession (crossed out means dead):
Stevron
Ryman
Edwyn
Black Walder
Petyr
Aegon Jinglebell
Walton - Might be in the Vale
Steffon - Might be in the Vale
Bryan - Might be in the Vale
Emmon - Married to Genna Lannister
Cleos
Tywin - Might be in Westerlands
Willem - Might be in Westerlands
Lyonel - Might be in Westerlands
Tion
Red Walder - Might be in Westerlands
Aenys
Bloodborn (assuming he becomes legit first, which means not pissing off the Lannisters)

 

If we were to follow the idea to see where it leads, I would say that if Shadrich turned out to be Bloodborn then it would mean that he is probably an ally of Black Walder, for now at least. Black Walder will find a way to kill Edwyn soon no doubt. The Lannister branch of Freys is protected by Cersei and controls Riverrun, so not a threat. Only the Vale branch consisting of Walton and his children would truly stand in Bloodborn's path.
 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Hippocras

[Phylum of Alexandria]

3 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I think it is probably true that he is looking for Sansa. I just don't think he needs to be hiding his identity to do that. He can be looking for Sansa, be selling information to some other player (so acting as a spy), and still himself be just Shadrich.

Fair enough. That passage doesn't get at any hidden identity of Shadrich. Instead, it is important to suggest that Sansa is not an incidental concern for Shadrich, but the reason why he's in the Vale. It also opens up the question of why choose the Vale as a place of interest when Sansa's aunt just died, and also how this man has the ability to identify Alayne as Sansa on sight.

To quote the essay that kick-started this discussion:

There are a few key points we should keep in mind for the hedge knight team even if they are exactly what they appear to be and only out to kidnap Sansa for a ransom:

• For any plan, rescue or kidnapping, to work Littlefinger must believe they are exactly the hired swords they appear to be for him to be completely at ease and to allow them around “his daughter.”
• Littlefinger must believe that there’s no way the hedge knights could know who Alayne really is.
• Logically, there must be at least one member of the team that can positively ID Sansa through a disguise or physical changes brought on by time and puberty.  Even if they are kidnapping her, there’s no reward for bringing the wrong girl back to King’s Landing.

We know by the fact that they were hired, came back with Littlefinger from Gulltown, spent hours in his solar drinking and talking, have been personally introduced to Alayne, and they have by TWOW sample chapter spent months at the Gates of the Moon without any cause for suspicion means all of the above points are true.

...Shadrich succeeded in finding Sansa where all others had failed.  This means he found the right information that lead him to Sansa.  How he got that information is critically important question to answer.

 

 

[Hippocras]

39 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

Fair enough. That passage doesn't get at any hidden identity of Shadrich. Instead, it is important to suggest that Sansa is not an incidental concern for Shadrich, but the reason why he's in the Vale. It also opens up the question of why choose the Vale as a place of interest when Sansa's aunt just died, and also how this man has the ability to identify Alayne as Sansa on sight.

To quote the essay that kick-started this discussion:

There are a few key points we should keep in mind for the hedge knight team even if they are exactly what they appear to be and only out to kidnap Sansa for a ransom:

• For any plan, rescue or kidnapping, to work Littlefinger must believe they are exactly the hired swords they appear to be for him to be completely at ease and to allow them around “his daughter.”
• Littlefinger must believe that there’s no way the hedge knights could know who Alayne really is.
• Logically, there must be at least one member of the team that can positively ID Sansa through a disguise or physical changes brought on by time and puberty.  Even if they are kidnapping her, there’s no reward for bringing the wrong girl back to King’s Landing.

We know by the fact that they were hired, came back with Littlefinger from Gulltown, spent hours in his solar drinking and talking, have been personally introduced to Alayne, and they have by TWOW sample chapter spent months at the Gates of the Moon without any cause for suspicion means all of the above points are true.

...Shadrich succeeded in finding Sansa where all others had failed.  This means he found the right information that lead him to Sansa.  How he got that information is critically important question to answer.

 

 

I don't agree with any of the conclusions in what you post.

1. Littlefinger is too smart to truly believe anyone would not suspect she is Sansa. He would ALWAYS be prepared for that contingency especially when he knows how well Cersei would reward anyone who found her.
2. Littlefinger is never completely at ease or trusting of anyone, especially anyone whose motives he is not fully aware of. For him, trust is something he has when he has in his power a reason to ensure betrayal would be severely punished.
3. We do NOT know by the fact that "...." that the above points are true. Rather, we can simply surmise that while they may indeed know who Sansa is, Littlefinger has made the pot sweeter for them if they go along with his plans than if they work against him. Such as, for example, a secret betrothal and a promise to ensure that a marriage between Sansa and Harry will never happen.
 

[Phylum of Alexandria]

6 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

We do NOT know by the fact that "...." that the above points are true. Rather, we can simply surmise that while they may indeed know who Sansa is, Littlefinger has made the pot sweeter for them if they go along with his plans than if they work against him. Such as, for example, a secret betrothal and a promise to ensure that a marriage between Sansa and Harry will never happen.

So, for clarity: you're saying that LF was the one who identified Alayne as Sansa to Shadrich for some purpose? Or he simply recruited him for something involving "Alayne," and Shad still has no idea that she's Sansa?

If it's the second one, I can concede that this passage on its own could possibly be interpreted that way. The first just seems way too implausible.

But it's also pretty clear you haven't read the article I mentioned in full. Give it a try and see what you think. It saves me the effort of rehashing the points they already made.

https://sweeticeandfiresunray.com/2017/07/13/their-gallantry-is-yet-to-be-demonstrated-shadrich-morgarth-and-byron/

[Hippocras]

9 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

So, for clarity: you're saying that LF was the one who identified Alayne as Sansa to Shadrich for some purpose? Or he simply recruited him for something involving "Alayne," and Shad still has no idea that she's Sansa?

If it's the second one, I can concede that this passage on its own could possibly be interpreted that way. The first just seems way too implausible.

But it's also pretty clear you haven't read the article I mentioned in full. Give it a try and see what you think. It saves me the effort of rehashing the points they already made.

https://sweeticeandfiresunray.com/2017/07/13/their-gallantry-is-yet-to-be-demonstrated-shadrich-morgarth-and-byron/

No, I am saying that Littlefinger recruited him BECAUSE he knew or suspected, regardless of who he turns out to be. Littlefinger found out from the ship captain or from whoever else that Shadrich was looking for Sansa, didn't want him to make unplanned trouble, so recruited him precisely because he knew by promising rewards greater than anything Cersei could offer.

Probably without ever once actually mentioning Sansa. So Shadrich is likely unaware that Littlefinger knows he knows.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Hippocras

[Phylum of Alexandria]

1 minute ago, Hippocras said:

No, I am saying that Littlefinger recruited him BECAUSE he knew or suspected, regardless of who he turns out to be. Littlefinger found out from the ship captain or from whoever else that Shadrich was looking for Sansa, didn't want him to make unplanned trouble, so recruited him precisely because he knew by promising rewards greater than anything Cersei could offer.

Okay. You are welcome to that take. If you'd like to discuss further, get back to me with your thoughts on the essay's argument. 

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

Okay. You are welcome to that take. If you'd like to discuss further, get back to me with your thoughts on the essay's argument. 

The essay has way too much riding on mentions of gold, or things like the colour of an unrelated horse. Gold is the currency so will be mentioned by anyone. There is no hidden meaning to it, unless we speak of hair. As for horses, none of them are blue or green etc. The selection is limited, and chestnut is less remarkable than piebald or black or white.

So while it is a good investigation of the details, the conclusions remain very unconvincing. Mentions of gold are nit evidence.

[Phylum of Alexandria]

6 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

The essay has way too much riding on mentions of gold, or things like the colour of an unrelated horse. Gold is the currency so will be mentioned by anyone. There is no hidden meaning to it, unless we speak of hair. As for horses, none of them are blue or green etc. The selection is limited, and chestnut is less remarkable than piebald or black or white.

So while it is a good investigation of the details, the conclusions remain very unconvincing. Mentions of gold are nit evidence.

I agree that not all of the evidence it presents is strong, but I disagree that anything rides solely on those symbolic items. It's one type of detail, riding along with many other strong points and observations.

[Hippocras]

Well I, for one, would like to entertain the Frey idea a bit further. Obviously no Frey, or Lannister for that matter, would walk into the Vale under their true identity. The reason for disguise is clear. With the Freys at least we have the fox-faced thing to go on. It isn't much, but it is more solid than chestnut horses or bags of gold.

So which 3 Freys are likely to match the descriptions of Shadrich, Morgarth and Byron, and not be recognized in the Vale?

Edited November 16, 2023 by Hippocras

[Phylum of Alexandria]

59 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

With the Freys at least we have the fox-faced thing to go on.

Only one Frey has been described as fox-faced: Big Walder. It's not a common description in the series, let alone a shared feature of the Frey family. Other than BW and Shadrich, the only other fox-faced person mentioned is Tom of Sevens, described from the POV of Merritt Frey.* I really see no reason to assume that any Freys are involved in this plot.

It's also important to ask why anyone would choose the Vale as a place of interest, given that Sansa has no living heirs there. Or Gulltown, though I concede that someone could anticipate ships returning to the Vale following Lyn Corbray's wedding. But why would a Frey, or anyone, be there asking around for Sansa and expect to find a reasonable clue? Especially because this Shadrich character has been introduced to us as clever. That's not clever, that's random. Unless there's more information he's working with.

Speaking of clever, Petyr prides himself in his clever cover-up of Sansa's whereabouts, but he's okay with this hedge knight visiting Gulltown and asking around for his precious daughter-bride? He would want to know what information this hedge knight was working off of, and we should want to know as well. 

Also, why wouldn't he simply explain his deal with the knights to Sansa when she asked about how they met and came along with him? Granted, Petyr doesn't tell Sansa everything, but he tells her a lot. He loves showing how clever he can be, how in control. Even if he doesn't want to let her in on the details of something planned for Harry the Heir, it seems prudent to let her know that the new guards actually know who she is, and don't worry about it. At least to keep his game pieces as predictable as possible as he moves them into play.

I don't put much stock in the mention of chestnut coursers (while fully admitting that GRRM does play with symbols in this way), but I am expecting my clever characters to actually be clever, I'm expecting there to be a good reason why Shadrich went to Gulltown and ultimately the Vale, and I'm expecting his two companions will serve important roles in this mystery as well--otherwise GRRM simply would have had Shadrich operating alone.

 

Edit: The widow of the waterfront is said to have "vulpine" qualities, but she is not a Frey.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Phylum of Alexandria

[Hippocras]

37 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

Only one Frey has been described as fox-faced: Big Walder. 

Pretty sure it was in fact described as a typical feature for Freys, in the context of someone (Roslin? Hosteen?) being noticed to be remarkably NOT fox-faced like most Freys. Would not know where to tell you to look though so hoping someone else remembers.

I think it is quite obvious why farther back Freys might want to find Sansa: Their family is having a civil war. Anyone who is not on line to inherrit Darry, Riverrun or the Twins as things stand is probably looking to murder those who are, or find some other seat for themselves ( Harrenhal, Winterfell...) . And as I said there is a key branch of the Frey family in the Vale.

Tom O Sevens being described as fox-faced might after all also be hinting at a connection, not invalidating it.

I, personally, do not believe as you do that LF is honest and open with Sansa. We even directly hear of quiet little meetings he has that she is not part of. He is hiding a LOT from her and she is trying to piece it together, subconsciously.

[Phylum of Alexandria]

2 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Pretty sure it was in fact described as a typical feature for Freys, in the context of someone (Roslin? Hosteen?) being noticed to be remarkably NOT fox-faced like most Freys. Would not know where to tell you to look though so hoping someone else remembers.

If anything, they're described as weasel-like, but I'm happy to look at passages that say otherwise.

4 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Tom O Sevens being described as fox-faced might after all also be hinting at a connection, not invalidating it.

If so, it would be in a very indirect way, i.e., just as strong as a "chestnut courser" kind of argument.

3 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

I, personally, do not believe as you do that LF is honest and open with Sansa.

That is a distortion of what I actually said. I said he doesn't tell her everything, but he tells her a lot, especially when it makes him look clever and in control, and when it helps him control her actions. It seems very sensible to tell Sansa that these strange hedge knights now working for him know who she really is, but don't worry, just do as he instructs.

 

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

If anything, they're described as weasel-like, but I'm happy to look at passages that say otherwise.

If so, it would be in a very indirect way, i.e., just as strong as a "chestnut courser" kind of argument.

That is a distortion of what I actually said. I said he doesn't tell her everything, but he tells her a lot, especially when it makes him look clever and in control, and when it helps him control her actions. It seems very sensible to tell Sansa that these strange hedge knights now working for him know who she really is, but don't worry, just do as he instructs.

 

It is possible they were described as weasels, not foxes and I am remembering incorrectly. I am not particularly attached to this idea, I just wanted to explore it a bit more, collaboratively.

As for him telling Sansa, I think that rather depends on if she would be ok with them knowing, if she knew who they were. So I remain unconvinced he has good reason to tell her his plans in this case.

[Phylum of Alexandria]

3 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

As for him telling Sansa, I think that rather depends on if she would be ok with them knowing, if she knew who they were. So I remain unconvinced he has good reason to tell her his plans in this case.

Well, inferring that this young girl would know these random hedge knights would require them to be people that she would have seen in Winterfell or at Court. If that were the case, they would not be people Petyr would want wandering about, as they would draw the suspicion of the Royces and others, who are more privy to Westerosi politics than Sansa.

Petyr says nothing on the matter, and GRRM doesn't even plant an interesting detail in his response that might reveal more upon re-read (like he possibly did with Shadrich's "for love --> aye, love of gold" response). No pause or anything, Petyr just talks about the news of Westeros, because that's what's on his mind.

There is also the point of why Littlefinger would not be immediately suspicious about how and why Shadrich came to Gulltown in search of Sansa, which I have mentioned and you did not address. The lack of a known connection between Petyr and Sansa is a big part of Petyr's cover. Even if someone stumbled around to Gulltown in a haphazard search for Sansa (unlikely as it is), Petyr would assume that they got information from someone such as Cersei or Varys, and would feel threatened by this connivery. How clever Shadrich knew to get to Gulltown and the Vale is something that can't be explained by happenstance.

 

 

[Hippocras]

1 minute ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

Well, inferring that this young girl would know these random hedge knights would require them to be people that she would have seen in Winterfell or at Court. If that were the case, they would not be people Petyr would want wandering about, as they would draw the suspicion of the Royces and others, who are more privy to Westerosi politics than Sansa.

Petyr says nothing on the matter, and GRRM doesn't even plant an interesting detail in his response that might reveal more upon re-read (like he possibly did with Shadrich's "for love --> aye, love of gold" response). No pause or anything, Petyr just talks about the news of Westeros, because that's what's on his mind.

There is also the point of why Littlefinger would not be immediately suspicious about how and why Shadrich came to Gulltown in search of Sansa, which I have mentioned and you did not address. The lack of a known connection between Petyr and Sansa is a big part of Petyr's cover. Even if someone stumbled around to Gulltown in a haphazard search for Sansa (unlikely as it is), Petyr would assume that they got information from someone such as Cersei or Varys, and would feel threatened by this connivery. How clever Shadrich knew to get to Gulltown and the Vale is something that can't be explained by happenstance.

 

 

You misunderstand me. I am not implying they are people she has ever seen before. I am implying they are people whose real names she would know and be very unhappy to hear spoken, and that hearing them would not be good for her trust in Littlefinger.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Hippocras

[Northern Sword]

3 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Well I, for one, would like to entertain the Frey idea a bit further. Obviously no Frey, or Lannister for that matter, would walk into the Vale under their true identity. The reason for disguise is clear. With the Freys at least we have the fox-faced thing to go on. It isn't much, but it is more solid than chestnut horses or bags of gold.

So which 3 Freys are likely to match the descriptions of Shadrich, Morgarth and Byron, and not be recognized in the Vale?

I do see your line of thought on how and why it could be one of those dirty, thieving Frey's.

Yet, I come down on the other side here. Simply because I like the scenario of HR going under cover to help Ned's little girl and mess with Little Finger's plans. 

If he is a Frey, what's the plan ? Steal her away and give her to the Lannister's ? Keep her for themselves(forced marriage) for a claim? Ransom to the highest bidder ? Kill her off to continue the RW work ?

Also, with those family ties in The Vale, what is the need for hiding their identities?

 

In the end it'll probably be neither of these two. Imagine if Shadrich is just Shadrich, such a let down. lol 

[Phylum of Alexandria]

1 hour ago, Hippocras said:

You misunderstand me. I am not implying they are people she has ever seen before. I am implying they are people whose real names she would know and be very unhappy to hear spoken.

But he wouldn't have to tell them their real names. He would simply say: "This Mouse and his men came to Gulltown in search of you, but I made them an offer that made the Spider's gold look like a sack of dried nuts in comparison. You need not worry about them, my pet. Just keep your mind on wooing our dear Harry."

Edited November 16, 2023 by Phylum of Alexandria