How much does Shadrich know?

[Hugorfonics]

2 hours ago, Ser Arthurs Dawn said:

I think you're minimizing the impact Ned and Howland had on each other's lives. If you don't think they're friends, that's of course totally fair. But I like to think that something gave even Robb reason to consider Ned's and Howland's relationship as a friendship. Howland and Ned fought together, Howland saved Ned's life, Howland sent his own children to Winterfell, and, if R+L=J is true, Howland kept Jon's parentage a secret. Perhaps that's why Ned kept contact with him to a minimal.

She's mistrustful of everybody right now. And again, I haven't said anything beyond "it would be poetic if a knight came to her rescue." Obviously anyone who wanted to help her would need to earn her trust. Like I said before, you can call me delulu because the "Brienne/Howland protects Arya/Sansa" is a headcanon for me personally. It's not serious enough for me to have a debate over. Although I do personally go for the SS=HR theory, but I'm not treating it as fact.

Definitely possible. 

lol, like, Bards, relatives and fiancees? Whered she get those ideas lol. My headcanon is that both girls, at the ripe age of still children, will be super mature and independent. More Sansa then Arya who easily makes friends and creates the pack mentality easier. 

2 hours ago, Ser Arthurs Dawn said:

And thank you, really.  It's been in my system for so long that it's triggered some autoimmune responses, but I'll be seeing a specialist next month. Just pray that I don't go broke trying to pay for supplements lol.

Yea np, that sucks to hear, but keep your head up!

[sweetsunray]

7 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Why would his wife leading mean "lack of initiative"? That's a pretty blatantly sexist assumption on your part.

It's not about the one left leading being a woman, but an interim temporary ruler versus the actual ruler of the area or house. An interim ruler is more likely to maintain a status quo than take the initiative. For the same reason I suspect that Alysanne Mormont received instructions from Maege Mormont sent to Bear Island from Greyguard, before Maege and Glover sailed off into the Neck, over Alysanne deciding on her own initiative to liberate Deepwood Motte around the time that she did, which is supported by Alysanne's younger sister Lyanna answering Stannis' letter (Alysanne was gone already from Bear Island) and mentioning the KitN. It was the same thing with Rodrik Cassel (castellan) and Measter Luwin. While they did respond to physical internal issues (as leading house of the North), they dared not make any political decisions such as who was to be the heir of House Hornwood, or tell Wyman Manderly to go ahead and make a fleet, without referring these proposals to Robb first.

I hope you do know that I'm a woman myself, btw. It says so on my bio. Not that women cannot be sexist. But anyway, you jumped the gun here.

[sweetsunray]

6 hours ago, Ser Arthurs Dawn said:

Yeah tbh, she may as well have been waving a banner with her face painted on it with a caption that read, "HAVE YOU SEEN THIS GIRL? SHE IS NOT SANSA STARK."  

this.

 

6 hours ago, Ser Arthurs Dawn said:

Maybe her prayer hasn't technically been answered yet. But I just had a thought, if Brienne meets up with Arya in the Riverlands, Arya would be protected by her mother's sworn knight. If Howland is Shadrich, then Sansa would be protected by her father's truest friend. Call me delulu but this is my new headcanon. No, I will not be accepting criticism. Auf Wiedersehen. 

Well, as I mentioned, if HR sent his two children to WF to liberate a potential chained winged wolf, and he went south to liberate the sole known captive wolf, Sansa, then it might actually be have been in response to Sansa's prayer in aCoK. Around the same time, Arya wanders around the Gods Eye and feels as if it's calling out to her.

[sweetsunray]

6 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Ok, more things that dont make sense. Winged Wolf, cool story. Are the kids "dead" like that? Ramsay hung the bodies of "Bran and Rickon" above that gate so in all likelhood the greiving father would want to war on Bolton and not kick it with Sansa. Or is she like the second option now that Bran and Rickon have died for Reed to witness a Super Stark Sayin or whatever the plan is?
Speaking of Sansa not being the second plan. Shes not. Robb cut her out the will like a cancer, sending Riverlords and Northern lords to Reed to both prepare for Prince Jon and also get ready for Robb's northern campaign, obviously the RW changed that but not the will. For Robb's knights to approach Reed only for him to immediately leave and shoot the breeze with the exact persons disqualified from the will is a dick move.
We dont know if HR is a dick, we know the Mouse is though. We also though know that HR's kids are like the most polite and sweetest kids you'll ever meet which makes me think the HR has manners which surely the Mouse does not.

The grieving father would have known that Jojen believes that what is dreamed cannot be undone, and therefore the chances of his children in preventing the worst were slim. That danger was expected is evident by both children going there: Jojen the green dreamer, but who is weak, and his sister who has physical skills to help Jojen as best as she can.

It's not widely known that Ramsay burned WF. It's widely believed that was Theon's doing.

No, Sansa is not "the second plan". The winged wolf was chained. At the time Jojen and Meera departed for WF, the sole known wolf who was actually a captive was Sansa. Jojen was not sure whether that chained wolf was Bran.

Quote

Jojen's eyes were the color of moss, and sometimes when he looked at you he seemed to be seeing something else. Like now. "I dreamed of a winged wolf bound to earth with grey stone chains," he said. "It was a green dream, so I knew it was true. A crow was trying to peck through the chains, but the stone was too hard and his beak could only chip at them." [...]"You are the winged wolf, Bran," said Jojen. "I wasn't sure when we first came, but now I am. The crow sent us here to break your chains." (aCoK, Bran IV)

If Jojen was not sure when he first came, then he wasn't sure either before he left the Neck, wasn't sure when he told his father. And so HR wasn't sure either. So, when Jojen and Meera departed for WF, then yes it is logical that HR would send either someone else or go himself into what he would have believed even a far more dangerous situation. So, no, Sansa does not come second, but was the alternative, that early on in the aCoK timeline.

This matches with Shadrich's claim of fighting on the Blackwater for Stannis' side. And he was taken captive or surrendered, along with many more.

But regardless, HR would be far away from the Neck since around Arya/Sansa/Bran 2. He wouldn't have a clue about Robb's will. Would he be angry over what happened in WF? For sure. But there was little he could do about it from KL, right? Except continue his quest to find Sansa. BTW one of the common rumors about Sansa's disappearance after the Purple Wedding is that she grew bat wings and flew away on them.

Quote

"I forgot, you've been hiding under a rock. The northern girl. Winterfell's daughter. We heard she killed the king with a spell, and afterward changed into a wolf with big leather wings like a bat, and flew out a tower window. But she left the dwarf behind and Cersei means to have his head." (aSoS, Arya XIII)

And Shadrich makes a reference to a mouse with wings, being a silly thing.

Quote

Spoiler

“Will you be seeking wings?” the Royce girl said.
“A mouse with wings would be a silly sight.” (tWoW, Alayne I)

 

So, yeah, Sansa as a winged wolf is hinted at.

The anger over what befell his children and the Starks could influence HR to talk more flippant, and as Shadrich he would be more crass, mimicking the general crass behaviour of plenty of hedge knights as wel as landed knights.

Edited October 30, 2023 by sweetsunray

[sweetsunray]

5 hours ago, Northern Sword said:

Well @sweetsunray my apologies for not crediting you directly as it was your blog. @LemonyBlues wrote a great piece, it convinced me (  I wanted to be convinced ) haha. 

I can tell you, I thoroughly enjoyed your whole blog. Loved the comparisons to George's earlier works concerning the Sandkings. With the length of time between books, finding new takes and predictions on a blog like yours was such a great find. 

Hopefully you have more coming. lol

 

Cheers

Yup: more coming on the Blood Seal, but also on the Band of Exiles: namely Aurane Waters

[Hugorfonics]

On 10/30/2023 at 5:09 PM, sweetsunray said:

The grieving father would have known that Jojen believes that what is dreamed cannot be undone, and therefore the chances of his children in preventing the worst were slim. That danger was expected is evident by both children going there: Jojen the green dreamer, but who is weak, and his sister who has physical skills to help Jojen as best as she can.

It's not widely known that Ramsay burned WF. It's widely believed that was Theon's doing.

No, Sansa is not "the second plan". The winged wolf was chained. At the time Jojen and Meera departed for WF, the sole known wolf who was actually a captive was Sansa. Jojen was not sure whether that chained wolf was Bran.

If Jojen was not sure when he first came, then he wasn't sure either before he left the Neck, wasn't sure when he told his father. And so HR wasn't sure either. So, when Jojen and Meera departed for WF, then yes it is logical that HR would send either someone else or go himself into what he would have believed even a far more dangerous situation. So, no, Sansa does not come second, but was the alternative, that early on in the aCoK timeline.

This matches with Shadrich's claim of fighting on the Blackwater for Stannis' side. And he was taken captive or surrendered, along with many more.

But regardless, HR would be far away from the Neck since around Arya/Sansa/Bran 2. He wouldn't have a clue about Robb's will. Would he be angry over what happened in WF? For sure. But there was little he could do about it from KL, right? Except continue his quest to find Sansa. BTW one of the common rumors about Sansa's disappearance after the Purple Wedding is that she grew bat wings and flew away on them.

And Shadrich makes a reference to a mouse with wings, being a silly thing.

So, yeah, Sansa as a winged wolf is hinted at.

The anger over what befell his children and the Starks could influence HR to talk more flippant, and as Shadrich he would be more crass, mimicking the general crass behaviour of plenty of hedge knights as wel as landed knights.

Im not sure how common it is, tmk we hear it once which Arya immediately refers to as "stupid" lol. 
 

On 10/30/2023 at 5:09 PM, sweetsunray said:

Jojen believes that what is dreamed cannot be undone, and therefore the chances of his children in preventing the worst were slim.

Wait, Slim? I think you mean guaranteed?

Jojen dreamed of a liberated north and dreamed of breaking the ww's chains. So even if Bran was not the correct option then HR would know his kids would continue their journey and free Sansa. Right? Jojen didnt dream of his dad breaking chains. 

[sweetsunray]

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Jojen dreamed of a liberated north and dreamed of breaking the ww's chains. So even if Bran was not the correct option then HR would know his kids would continue their journey and free Sansa. Right? Jojen didnt dream of his dad breaking chains. 

Jojen didn't dream of liberating the north or succesfully breaking the chains. He dreamed about a winged wolf who was chained and a crow unable to liberate the winged wolf himself, and requiring help.

Quote

"I dreamed of a winged wolf bound to earth with grey stone chains," he said. "It was a green dream, so I knew it was true. A crow was trying to peck through the chains, but the stone was too hard and his beak could only chip at them."

His dream does not describe whether he can be liberated or who will liberate him. Where do you see in the above description of the dream that Jojen is the liberator and that the liberation will succeed?

Edited November 1, 2023 by sweetsunray

[Hugorfonics]

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

Jojen didn't dream of liberating the north or succesfully breaking the chains. He dreamed about a winged wolf who was chained and a crow unable to liberate the winged wolf himself, and requiring help.

His dream does not describe whether he can be liberated or who will liberate him. Where do you see in the above description of the dream that Jojen is the liberator and that the liberation will succeed?

No, sorry. Different passage, in fact different book.

Quote

"It was different when there was a Stark in Winterfell. But the old wolf's dead and young one's gone south to play the game of thrones, and all that's left us is the ghosts."

"The wolves will come again," said Jojen solemnly.

"And how would you be knowing, boy?"

"I dreamed it."

 

 

Jojen dreamt the crow needing him and his sister to break chains and take the wingwolf beyond the wall, so there's no role for their father to play, because they got it covered 

[sweetsunray]

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

No, sorry. Different passage, in fact different book.

Jojen can have green dreams later on. The later mentioned green dream in a later book therefore was not one he had when he convinced his father in the Neck to let him go to WF. In fact, his green dream of seeing the dead bodies of Bran and Rickon (or at least their surrogates) in aCoK, would negate any pursuing of the argument that he dreamed in the Neck that the wolves would come again.

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Jojen dreamt the crow needing him and his sister to break chains and take the wingwolf beyond the wall, so there's no role for their father to play, because they got it covered 

No, I repeat again that is not exactly what Jojen dreamt. Jojen as a green dreamer, dreamt a dream of a chained winged wolf and the crow trying to break those chains but unable to do it himself. It is implied that the crow asks for help, but the dream does not indicate that Jojen is the one who must break those chains, or that his sister must do it, let alone that they need to take Bran beyond the Wall. In fact, that Jojen admits that he was not sure who the winged wolf was upon arrival contradicts your piling on certainty into a dream that does not say what you turned it into.

As far as Jojen, Meera and Howland Reed know in the Neck when Jojen reveals his green dream about the winged wolf is that the "help" that the crow may require is just Jojen being a messenger who informs the right people about his dream. After all, that is basically what the Ghost of High Heart does. She has green dreams, and shares them with the people who visit her hill.

I'm sorry, but you make the mistake of conflating certain later dreams and actions and choices into one, while forgetting and excluding other dreams and statements by Jojen at Winterfell that contradict this.

The facts point to uncertainty

• the winged wolf dream does not say who the winged wolf is, why or how the wolf is chained, and how or who is to help the crow
• Jojen was not sure who the winged wolf was initially, not even upon arrival at WF. Jojen only became sure after he was at WF for weeks already, figuring out that Bran was a warg and a greenseer and that the maester and Bran himself blocked Bran from accepting and using his talents.

So, no your assertions are denied by the text

[Hippocras]

On 10/30/2023 at 9:17 PM, sweetsunray said:

It's not about the one left leading being a woman, but an interim temporary ruler versus the actual ruler of the area or house. An interim ruler is more likely to maintain a status quo than take the initiative. For the same reason I suspect that Alysanne Mormont received instructions from Maege Mormont sent to Bear Island from Greyguard, before Maege and Glover sailed off into the Neck, over Alysanne deciding on her own initiative to liberate Deepwood Motte around the time that she did, which is supported by Alysanne's younger sister Lyanna answering Stannis' letter (Alysanne was gone already from Bear Island) and mentioning the KitN. It was the same thing with Rodrik Cassel (castellan) and Measter Luwin. While they did respond to physical internal issues (as leading house of the North), they dared not make any political decisions such as who was to be the heir of House Hornwood, or tell Wyman Manderly to go ahead and make a fleet, without referring these proposals to Robb first.

I have a pretty different take on it. I think a guerilla warfare campaign has begun and that Maege and Glover are back in the North. They are giving instructions directly, not via letters. However they want it to remain a secret that they are back because it is useful for their purposes that the Boltons believe them to be dead or missing, and it creates deniability for those acting in their stead, as whatever they do, their Lords were absent.

This is why I think Howland Reed wandering Westeros theories are bogus I guess. I think he is with them in the North and together they are directing the guerilla campaign. The Hooded Man of course is the most direct evidence we have of a guerilla campaign, along with the deaths of the Freys in various circumstances. The poison arrows at Moat Cailin were part of it of course, but not the extent of it.

In short I see no need to imagine some kind of ineffective interim leader of Greywater Watch. The Reeds ARE doing something, they are just not yet where we can see them, and their talents lie in this more background sort of warfare rather than in open conflict with armies and swords.

  

On 10/30/2023 at 9:17 PM, sweetsunray said:

I hope you do know that I'm a woman myself, btw. It says so on my bio. Not that women cannot be sexist. But anyway, you jumped the gun here.

I kinda just feel like you assumed too much. Whether being sexist or not, it just a huge jump to a tenuous conclusion to believe there is an interim leader at all, or that they are necessarily ineffective just because they are interim. 

[sweetsunray]

On 11/2/2023 at 10:47 AM, Hippocras said:

The Hooded Man of course is the most direct evidence we have of a guerilla campaign, along with the deaths of the Freys in various circumstances.

I think HM is Theon Durden.

The Freys of WH were killed on Manderly's orders and put in a pie.

The only Frey killed at WF was little Walder (the meanest and largest one, and with big Walder having all the blood on him it's very much suggested he may have been involved in the death of his cousin)

One of the Ryswell brothers was found dead in the bottom of a moat, buried beneath snow (and wouldn't have been found for months even if not for Ramsay's dogs). It might have been one of Mance's spearwives, as one of them was last seen with one of them. But it also might be a brother who hopes to be rid of a potential rival to acquiring the seat of Ryswell if and when their father dies. It also might be, because he's the brother who's actually pro-Boltons whereas Barbrey and her brother may be plotting against Bolton. Or it might have been Theon Durden who killed him.

The others that are killed are Ramsay's men: men who hunt with Ramsay, guard Jeyne Poole's door or are cruel to Theon. There are once again several potential murdering candidates for those murders of those within the walls of WF: Theon, Mance's spearwives, whomever Manderly or Mance helped convince to cooperate, heck even Roose or Ramsay themselves.

Not one of them are direct evidence of Maege or Lord Glover, let alone HR, leading and taking a guerilla warfare in hands inside the walls of WF. While Manderly and Robett Glover were working together at White Harbor, Robett himself was captured by the Mountain between Duskendale and Robett's retreat to the Riverlands, then exchanged for Martyn Lannister by King Robb and put on a ship to White Harbor at Duskendale. He hasn't seen his brother since Robb marched from Moat Cailin to the Twins and split his forces between making for Riverrun and the feign battle as bait for Tywin (the battle of the green Fork). This shows in how he openly attracts attention to himself at White Harbor in rebellious talk. 

The sole hint that there is a directive to act is via Alysanne who ends up attacking the shores and woods around Deepwood Motte about the same time as Stannis does. Alysanne is the eldest sister left at Bear Island, after Maege and her firstborn Dacey left south with Robb. She would have been the one left in charge to lead Bear Island, especially since she is Maege's sole daughter with children of her own, the next generation heirs to Bear Island. And yet, it is not Alysanne who answers Stannis' letters, but her younger sister Lyanna Mormont, which is a strong indication that Alysanne had left Bear Island already before any letter of Stannis arrived. Her intention had always been to free Deepwood Motte. Alysanne having left Bear Island is quite early in the timeline, and liberating Deepwood Motte would fit in with Robb's plans when he sent Maege and Galbert away to deal with the Ironborn in the north. Galbert is the lord of Deepwood Motte, Sybelle his sister in law, and her children are his nephews and nieces, heirs after his brother Robett (who was exchanged for Martyn Lannister). So, why did Alysanne wait so long before actually executing a rescue? It didn't have anything to do with Stannis, but everything with Asha Greyjoy sailing for the kingsmoot and taking Sybella and her children along to the Iron Islands as hostages. Alysanne could have taken Deepwood Motte easily while Asha was gone, but with Galbert's ultimate heirs in Asha's hands that would have been a dumb move.

That early on, Maege nor Galbert could have been acting in the North whatsoever: Ramsay's on a rampage, the Karstarks abandoned Robb, and the Ironborn hold Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte and Torrhen Stark, and there's the claim that Arya Stark is to be Ramsay's bride and coming north alongside Roose. The sole people aware that this cannot be the real Arya Stark are the BwB and LS, who indeed end up journeying into the Neck for a short while according to witnesses, before Roose crosses the neck and while Maege, Galbert and whomever is in charge of Reed's floating castle are in the Neck. Since the Neck doesn't operate with ravens, Maege and Galbert sent instructions before sailing for the Neck, which would have been from the Mallister "port" in the Riverlands. And yes, that timing would fit Lyanna being alone at Bear Island and writing an answer to Stannis this early on in aDwD.

So, the "indirect" evidence that points to Maege's and Galbert's involvement into any combative actions in the North is Alysanne sailing from Bear Island to leave her sister and minor in charge, to leave her children and ultimate heirs of Bear Island, for the bay where the Ironborn ships are and her admittance that she was there to liberate Deepwood Motte from the Ironborn. Liberating the north of the Ironborn was Robb's intent before he died. And Alysanne as a Mormont and Deepwood Motte being the seat of Galbert fit with Maege and Galbert planning together. Notice how it does not need and shows no evidence of the involvement of any Reed. It's just that Alysanne didn't dare to execute the liberation of Deepwood Motte, while Asha had sailed away for the Iron Islands with Sybelle and her children as hostages. This certainly threw a wrench in the initial plans, delayed them, and likely caused the alteration - capture Asha Grejoy herself to force an exchange for Sybelle's children who are still hostages at the Iron Islands. Asha only returned with Sybelle to Deepwood Motte after the Kingsmoot. Hence, Alysanne becomes Asha's unofficial guard. Asha's not just Stannis' prize, but ultimately the KitN's hostage to get Sybelle's children back. This is also the reason why Sybelle dealt with Tycho Nestoris to bring Asha a gift: her crew.

George writes rebellions and campaigns in a realistic way: several factions are acting simultaneously in consideration of their own house, heirs, people and the orders and plans made upon being last seen or mentioned. There is no grand secret coordination coming from one faction alone who leads everyone else, especially as long as there is no particular Stark in charge. Just symbolically, George is not going to write any lord or lady of any house of the North - whether it's the Neck, Bear Island, White Harbor, Last Hearth, Deepwood Motte - except for one of the main Stark protagonists, be the successful leader of the whole north. Doing that would basically make the Starks a superfluous house. If Howland Reed, Maege and Galbert lead everybody else of the North in a successful rebellion against the Boltons, Stannis and the Lannisters while knowing everything, then there's no need for Staks to rule the North. And there's no way that nobody would end up blabbing and revealing Robb's plans, secrets, etc. Someone always talks and brags if too many people know of one big ambitious conspiracy plan.

No, instead, George ensures cover up and preservations of secrets, by creating several factions within the north having a similar sentiment (rebel against the Boltons and reluctance to submit to Stannis, bringing a Stark back into power, securing the freedom of hostages) but with only partial knowledge. 

• So, we have Mormonts and Glovers doing one thing west of the Neck, which is an extension of Robb's original plans and includes awareness of Robb's appointed heir, most likely Jon Snow. Alysanne had the opportunity to update Sybelle and the mountain clans after the capture of Deepwood Motte. And so, the leaders of the mountain clans show up at CB to appraise Jon Snow.
• We have Manderly and Robett concocting their own plans in the spirit of a Stark reinstallment, by sending Davos to fetch Rickon. They had the opportunity to inform Barbrey, her brother and Whoresbane, inside WF, possibly even Mance. Hence Barbrey wants to see those missing swords in the crypts herself, and potentially a Ryswell covering for Theon who is under suspicion of killing people inside WF, and is to liberate Arya (a hostage against Rickon).
• The mountains clans know that Bran and the Reeds survived, but not necessarily where he disappeared off to, and Alysanne's update about Robb's heir may have persuaded them to preserve Bran's secret. It's possible the mountain clans know Bran is a greenseer and this may be one of the reasons why they are so adamant about bringing Theon in front of a ww tree.
• Whomever is in charge in the Neck was informed by LS that Arya Stark with Roose Bolton is not the true Arya Stark. LS and BwB know the Freys were never aware that Arya was at the Twins (no Frey they hanged who confessed to their own part in the RW saw her), and they know that the boy with Sandor at the Crossroads was Arya, and that they made for Saltpans afterwards. We can safely assume LS and BwB questioned whomever they captured for the Saltpans gave similar answers as the Freys when it came to having seen a boy or girl befitting Arya's description at Saltpans. LS, Tom and several others went into the Neck before Roose crossed the Neck and questioning and hanging several Freys already.

But Alysanne and Sybelle and mountain clans do not know about Rickon or fake Arya. They might know about Bran, but likely do not. Manderly et all have no clue about Jon Snow as Robb's heir yet. The Neck is not aware of Bran and the Reeds and Rickon surviving.

[Hippocras]

@sweetsunray

I do not at all buy in to Theon Durden. So that changes my perspective quite a bit. I am not sure which other candidates for HM you are actually considering, if any, but all possible candidates point to underground rebellion against Bolton rule.

Freys were killed on Manderly's orders, yes, after we see him acting secretively against the Freys with Robett Glover who is of course Galbart Glover's brother.

I think you should try reviewing your ideas on who did what, and see what ideas you come up with when you assume Theon Durden is wrong.

[sweetsunray]

44 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Freys were killed on Manderly's orders, yes, after we see him acting secretively against the Freys with Robett Glover who is of course Galbart Glover's brother.

I already pointed out that we should regard Robett Glover as acting on his own. He's been apart from Galbert and Robb since before they split at the Twins just coming south of Moat Cailin (the end of aGoT). Robett is oblivious to most of Robb's plans and Maege and Galbert: after Arya freed him with the Weasel soup at Harrenhal, he went to Duskendale to attack that on Roose's orders and never second guessed it. His rallying actions and open rebellion clamoring right after arrival in White Harbor is in line with the portrayal of Robett - honest, heart on his sleeve, brave, but not the brightest and strategic thinker. Manderly taking him under his wing with regards to Rickon has calmed him down. But I'm going with Arya's gut when it comes to secret plotting. The Freys may be stupid, but Roose isn't

 

53 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

I think you should try reviewing your ideas on who did what, and see what ideas you come up with when you assume Theon Durden is wrong.

Right back at you. Maybe you should try to apply your own advice in the other way.

In fact I used to consider the other ideas for years prior to Theon Durden: HM as HR, Crowfood and Whoresbane meetings, Grand Northern Conspiracy. Which only loosely passes for a plot on superficial reading and impressions and especially hopes. It falls apart on deeper analysis, timeline, etc. 

[Hippocras]

4 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Right back at you. Maybe you should try to apply your own advice in the other way.

In fact I used to consider the other ideas for years prior to Theon Durden: HM as HR, Crowfood and Whoresbane meetings, Grand Northern Conspiracy. Which only loosely passes for a plot on superficial reading and impressions and especially hopes. It falls apart on deeper analysis, timeline, etc. 

The point is simply that by assuming it is true, a lot of things don't require other explanations. But if you believe it COULD be true, but that it also might not be, a lot of things need different explanations.

[sweetsunray]

6 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

The point is simply that by assuming it is true, a lot of things don't require other explanations. But if you believe it COULD be true, but that it also might not be, a lot of things need different explanations.

The point is that you assume too much about the process on how I end up going with one explanation over another, how you assume that someone else than you may have taken years to make a decision of leaning towards one explanation over another. Your assumption says way more about your process than it does about mine.

Edited November 9, 2023 by sweetsunray

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

The point is that you assume too much about the process on how I end up going with one explanation over another, how you assume that someone else than you may have taken years to make a decision of leaning towards one explanation over another. Your assumption says way more about your process than it does about mine.

I really was not trying to be hostile. This thread is about Shadrich, which evolved into a discussion of what people think Howland Reed has been up to. The basis for believing Shadrich is HR is that some people think he has been doing nothing.

But, if you assume he has not in fact been doing nothing, then either you end up in tinfoil territory (tinfoils can always of course turn out true, just unlikely) or, you assume that whatever he has been up to, it has been very far from the sight of any POV character. In other words, just because we can't see his actions through a POV character yet, does not mean that he has been idle. I think that assumption is a logical fallacy.

The best way IMO to go about theorizing when it comes to HR, is to root each idea in which POV character he is going to come into contact with. For example, if people believe he has good cause to try to find Sansa, they will develop theories, such as the Shadrich theory, of how he will end up there. I personally do not think that Sansa is the top bet for which, if any, Stark HR will seek out. It simply does not make sense in the context of his own story and the little we know of it.

I think he has good cause to go North. He has a decades old conflict with certain Freys for one thing, and they have gone there. For another, the North is where his kids went. It is unclear if he knows that Bran and Rickon are alive, but he might if he has contact with the Northern mountain clans, in which case word might have reached him via the Liddles who saw them travelling North. Finally, of all the Stark kids, Jon is the only one who is connected to his own personal history.

But if he did go North, where did he go? Obviously not to join the Boltons out in the open. He would be hiding somewhere, and most likely in a place where neither the Boltons, nor Stannis would ever go. Which would mean that he is in contact with one or more of our known characters, just not a POV yet, and that his way of acting is to assist them in undermining Bolton rule of the North.

One possibility I have considered is Torrhen's Square. Supposedly this is still being held by Dagmer Cleftjaw. On the other hand, how would anyone actually know? Dagmer is not the type to write letters and there has been a great deal of upheaval in the Iron Islands, so even if he did want to get word out that he was being attacked, who would he write to?

Torrhen's square is where the Ironborn assault began. With the Boltons claiming (sort-of) Moat Cailin and the Ironborn defeated, Torrhen's square is the next stop. So until we hear word about anyone else holding Torrhen's Square, I think it is a decent guess to assume that our loyal rebels, HR MM and GG, have made that their base without either Stannis or the Boltons becoming aware.

Edited November 9, 2023 by Hippocras

[Gilbert Green]

- He is hunting Sansa; and he "knows" or at least suspects, that Sansa is his target.

- He is willing to join forces with a larger warrior for a share of the spoils.

- He is small enough to be mistaken for a 12 year old boy, in the dark or from a distance.

So we should keep a sharp lookout for big mystery knights and their small mystery companions and not assume too quickly that we know who they are.

Is the big knight Sandor?  or Brienne?  Or Lem?  Or someone else?

Is the small companion Podrick? Or Shadrick?  Or Edric?  Or someone else?

[Hippocras]

On 11/9/2023 at 2:24 AM, sweetsunray said:

I think HM is Theon Durden.

The Freys of WH were killed on Manderly's orders and put in a pie.

The only Frey killed at WF was little Walder (the meanest and largest one, and with big Walder having all the blood on him it's very much suggested he may have been involved in the death of his cousin)

One of the Ryswell brothers was found dead in the bottom of a moat, buried beneath snow (and wouldn't have been found for months even if not for Ramsay's dogs). It might have been one of Mance's spearwives, as one of them was last seen with one of them. But it also might be a brother who hopes to be rid of a potential rival to acquiring the seat of Ryswell if and when their father dies. It also might be, because he's the brother who's actually pro-Boltons whereas Barbrey and her brother may be plotting against Bolton. Or it might have been Theon Durden who killed him.

The others that are killed are Ramsay's men: men who hunt with Ramsay, guard Jeyne Poole's door or are cruel to Theon. There are once again several potential murdering candidates for those murders of those within the walls of WF: Theon, Mance's spearwives, whomever Manderly or Mance helped convince to cooperate, heck even Roose or Ramsay themselves.

Not one of them are direct evidence of Maege or Lord Glover, let alone HR, leading and taking a guerilla warfare in hands inside the walls of WF. While Manderly and Robett Glover were working together at White Harbor, Robett himself was captured by the Mountain between Duskendale and Robett's retreat to the Riverlands, then exchanged for Martyn Lannister by King Robb and put on a ship to White Harbor at Duskendale. He hasn't seen his brother since Robb marched from Moat Cailin to the Twins and split his forces between making for Riverrun and the feign battle as bait for Tywin (the battle of the green Fork). This shows in how he openly attracts attention to himself at White Harbor in rebellious talk. 

The sole hint that there is a directive to act is via Alysanne who ends up attacking the shores and woods around Deepwood Motte about the same time as Stannis does. Alysanne is the eldest sister left at Bear Island, after Maege and her firstborn Dacey left south with Robb. She would have been the one left in charge to lead Bear Island, especially since she is Maege's sole daughter with children of her own, the next generation heirs to Bear Island. And yet, it is not Alysanne who answers Stannis' letters, but her younger sister Lyanna Mormont, which is a strong indication that Alysanne had left Bear Island already before any letter of Stannis arrived. Her intention had always been to free Deepwood Motte. Alysanne having left Bear Island is quite early in the timeline, and liberating Deepwood Motte would fit in with Robb's plans when he sent Maege and Galbert away to deal with the Ironborn in the north. Galbert is the lord of Deepwood Motte, Sybelle his sister in law, and her children are his nephews and nieces, heirs after his brother Robett (who was exchanged for Martyn Lannister). So, why did Alysanne wait so long before actually executing a rescue? It didn't have anything to do with Stannis, but everything with Asha Greyjoy sailing for the kingsmoot and taking Sybella and her children along to the Iron Islands as hostages. Alysanne could have taken Deepwood Motte easily while Asha was gone, but with Galbert's ultimate heirs in Asha's hands that would have been a dumb move.

That early on, Maege nor Galbert could have been acting in the North whatsoever: Ramsay's on a rampage, the Karstarks abandoned Robb, and the Ironborn hold Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte and Torrhen Stark, and there's the claim that Arya Stark is to be Ramsay's bride and coming north alongside Roose. The sole people aware that this cannot be the real Arya Stark are the BwB and LS, who indeed end up journeying into the Neck for a short while according to witnesses, before Roose crosses the neck and while Maege, Galbert and whomever is in charge of Reed's floating castle are in the Neck. Since the Neck doesn't operate with ravens, Maege and Galbert sent instructions before sailing for the Neck, which would have been from the Mallister "port" in the Riverlands. And yes, that timing would fit Lyanna being alone at Bear Island and writing an answer to Stannis this early on in aDwD.

So, the "indirect" evidence that points to Maege's and Galbert's involvement into any combative actions in the North is Alysanne sailing from Bear Island to leave her sister and minor in charge, to leave her children and ultimate heirs of Bear Island, for the bay where the Ironborn ships are and her admittance that she was there to liberate Deepwood Motte from the Ironborn. Liberating the north of the Ironborn was Robb's intent before he died. And Alysanne as a Mormont and Deepwood Motte being the seat of Galbert fit with Maege and Galbert planning together. Notice how it does not need and shows no evidence of the involvement of any Reed. It's just that Alysanne didn't dare to execute the liberation of Deepwood Motte, while Asha had sailed away for the Iron Islands with Sybelle and her children as hostages. This certainly threw a wrench in the initial plans, delayed them, and likely caused the alteration - capture Asha Grejoy herself to force an exchange for Sybelle's children who are still hostages at the Iron Islands. Asha only returned with Sybelle to Deepwood Motte after the Kingsmoot. Hence, Alysanne becomes Asha's unofficial guard. Asha's not just Stannis' prize, but ultimately the KitN's hostage to get Sybelle's children back. This is also the reason why Sybelle dealt with Tycho Nestoris to bring Asha a gift: her crew.

George writes rebellions and campaigns in a realistic way: several factions are acting simultaneously in consideration of their own house, heirs, people and the orders and plans made upon being last seen or mentioned. There is no grand secret coordination coming from one faction alone who leads everyone else, especially as long as there is no particular Stark in charge. Just symbolically, George is not going to write any lord or lady of any house of the North - whether it's the Neck, Bear Island, White Harbor, Last Hearth, Deepwood Motte - except for one of the main Stark protagonists, be the successful leader of the whole north. Doing that would basically make the Starks a superfluous house. If Howland Reed, Maege and Galbert lead everybody else of the North in a successful rebellion against the Boltons, Stannis and the Lannisters while knowing everything, then there's no need for Staks to rule the North. And there's no way that nobody would end up blabbing and revealing Robb's plans, secrets, etc. Someone always talks and brags if too many people know of one big ambitious conspiracy plan.

No, instead, George ensures cover up and preservations of secrets, by creating several factions within the north having a similar sentiment (rebel against the Boltons and reluctance to submit to Stannis, bringing a Stark back into power, securing the freedom of hostages) but with only partial knowledge. 

• So, we have Mormonts and Glovers doing one thing west of the Neck, which is an extension of Robb's original plans and includes awareness of Robb's appointed heir, most likely Jon Snow. Alysanne had the opportunity to update Sybelle and the mountain clans after the capture of Deepwood Motte. And so, the leaders of the mountain clans show up at CB to appraise Jon Snow.
• We have Manderly and Robett concocting their own plans in the spirit of a Stark reinstallment, by sending Davos to fetch Rickon. They had the opportunity to inform Barbrey, her brother and Whoresbane, inside WF, possibly even Mance. Hence Barbrey wants to see those missing swords in the crypts herself, and potentially a Ryswell covering for Theon who is under suspicion of killing people inside WF, and is to liberate Arya (a hostage against Rickon).
• The mountains clans know that Bran and the Reeds survived, but not necessarily where he disappeared off to, and Alysanne's update about Robb's heir may have persuaded them to preserve Bran's secret. It's possible the mountain clans know Bran is a greenseer and this may be one of the reasons why they are so adamant about bringing Theon in front of a ww tree.
• Whomever is in charge in the Neck was informed by LS that Arya Stark with Roose Bolton is not the true Arya Stark. LS and BwB know the Freys were never aware that Arya was at the Twins (no Frey they hanged who confessed to their own part in the RW saw her), and they know that the boy with Sandor at the Crossroads was Arya, and that they made for Saltpans afterwards. We can safely assume LS and BwB questioned whomever they captured for the Saltpans gave similar answers as the Freys when it came to having seen a boy or girl befitting Arya's description at Saltpans. LS, Tom and several others went into the Neck before Roose crossed the Neck and questioning and hanging several Freys already.

But Alysanne and Sybelle and mountain clans do not know about Rickon or fake Arya. They might know about Bran, but likely do not. Manderly et all have no clue about Jon Snow as Robb's heir yet. The Neck is not aware of Bran and the Reeds and Rickon surviving.

This post is quite huge, but mostly just being thorough. I appreciate the clarity.

We are definitely in a maddening phase in this series where there are so many moving parts and things that are happening in the background. Evidence for anything is scarce, which is why I am not married to any particular theories.

From this post, I get that you agree broadly that several characters are acting against the Boltons, but you see it as not particularly coordinated. Which is fine, and i did not really mean to imply anyway that the capacity for coordinated action is unlimited. There are certainly holes in what most of the characters know, and other characters are working from different knowledge.

So it is not really so much that it is a broad consensus effort that is underway, under GG, MM and HR's leadership. I also see that as in fact unlikely. It is just that they are the ones, out of everyone who is discontented with the Boltons, who have the most freedom to act as information conduits and behind-the-scenes players because their presence in the North (if true of course) is not known.

They are the ones who are fighting for Robb's will, but even so, Robb's will was based on the assumption the Bran and Rickon were dead. Those who know they are alive have no particular reason for allowing that information to go beyond a very small circle of allies. So the question really is whether the Liddles are allies of HR GG and MM. I think that seems likely actually. So they have the will to consider on the one hand, but also probably the knowledge that the most direct heir Robb hand, Bran, is also alive.

Also, I see no reason to assume that the Glovers have not been in touch. Robett was actively trying to raise forces and did not hide his presence. And White Harbour is relatively close to the Neck. So I don't think it is that much of a stretch to consider they might have been in touch.

[Nevets]

I am quite skeptical of the idea that Shadrich is Howland Reed in disguise.  We've been given no obvious (at least in retrospect) clues suggesting they are the same person.  In fact, what we have leads to the conclusion they aren't the same person.  His actions towards Brienne make no sense if he's Howland.  And I fail to see how his being Howland helps advance Sansa's story.

GRRM is pretty good about giving us hints about secret identities.  These revolve around descriptions, locations, and activities that clearly match up.  We have no description for Howland himself, but we do for his children, and they don't match up well.  Meera has brown hair and green eyes, and Jojen's eyes are described as a deep green.  Neither is described as "fox-faced".  Shadrich's eyes aren't mentioned, and his hair is orange (could be dyed, but why?).  Also, Howland was known to use a spear and net, which he taught to Meera.  Nothing about a sword, which Brienne assesses Shadrich is skilled with.  Obviously, none of this prevents him from being Howland, but it certainly does nothing to help lead to that conclusion.

Yes, Brienne might be a bit obvious, but so what?  She's mostly asking smallfolk, who may or may not have been given Sansa's description.  I kind of doubt it; we've seen from Arya's story that information for commoners is often unreliable.  Even if connected to Sansa, the worst that could happen would be someone following her.  Which did happen, but both Podrick and Hyle knew about her search already.

He makes no attempt to find out her interest, or even if she is aware of the reward.  She has the potential to be a useful ally, given that she is well equipped, capable in a fight, and though he doesn't know it, knew Sansa's mother.  In fact, a smart conversation might tease that out.  If he's worried about her attracting attention, simply tell her to keep her mouth shut.

How does Howland being in the Vale help Sansa's story.  She needs to start making stuff happen on her own, not being rescued by unknown benefactors.  She's becoming a player, and that means identifying allies and seeking them out.  I'm not sure how Howland's presence helps with that.  Also, as others have pointed out, he's of more use causing trouble for the Boltons, Freys, and Lannisters in the North than anything he might accomplish in the Vale.

I think Shadrich is simply a hedge knight in search of a payday.  I doubt he's actively searching for Sansa, though he'd be happy to take the reward if he found her.  I think he is in the Vale because it's a steady job.  That Sansa is there is coincidental (GRRM does like his coincidences).  Storywise, he's a red herring to distract us from other more real threats, most likely including Baelish.

[Hippocras]

@Nevets

your post had me thinking who else is described as fox-faced.

Freys.

So now I am wondering, if Shadrich does have a secret identity, it might be a Frey identity. Walton might be a good bet, given all the Vale relatives he has. Otherwise it might be a Frey who wants Walton dead so that he can move up the chain of succession.

Edited November 14, 2023 by Hippocras