Myrcella I...Queen for a Day???

[Hippocras]

I think for this thread maybe it would be better to get past the question of IF Myrcella will ever be queen and focus on the HOW.

IF remains an open question we can’t answer. But looking at the how of it all makes for much more speculative fun when you just assume she will be queen, however briefly. You can, after all, never come up with good scenarios for how she becomes queen if you assume she will not.
 

The pieces are moving on the board.

Myrcella is in transit. she could be held up indefinitely in Dorne. She could be captured on the road just as Cersei had planned, but by different people. She could be captured at sea by Aurane Waters in the Stepstones, or by the Redwyne fleet going from Dragonstone to Oldtown. She could just as easily be captured by the Golden Company, who also have plenty of boats and just arrived. She could even, miraculously, make it back to KL safely though I would not bet on it.

Reach armies are in KL awaiting Margaery’s trial. If the trial goes badly, those armies will attack the Sparrows and Faith Millitant. What a mess. If the trial result is more favourable for Margaery then the armies will leave for Storm’s End, and the Faith will largely control KL. Predicament for Cersei.

Euron controls the Shield Islands, and so the Mander. Willas has gathered an army that he can’t move because Cersei refused him ships. An attack on Oldtown is imminent, and the Redwyne fleet may not arrive in time to help. Nor, it seems, will Willas Tyrell. Once Oldtown falls, which seems likely, everything along the Honeywine will also be vulnerable to Ironborn raids.

Stomlands armies are busy defending the Stormlands against the Golden Company. Only Dorne and the Vale are relatively unoccupied and theoretically available to help the Reach, but their leaders may have other plans.

 

Edited January 10 by Hippocras

[Lord Varys]

12 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Yes, the Hand of the King is also an agent of the king.  The only reason you would not count him as a "field agent", is because he remains at court and does not venture out into the field.

LOL, what? The Hand has led the armies of the king in more than one occasion. And, again, in the king's absence he is effectively the king himself.

12 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

A person sent abroad to speak for you is often called an "ambassador".  And yes, your ambassadors are also your agents.  It is fair to say that Doran has asked Arianne to be his ambassador.   He also asked her to send a coded message on his behalf.   That's all we know for sure.  Everything else is theory.

There is no theory there. Arianne is told to gather information on Aegon and then decide by herself if the guy is the one they should go to war with or not. And she acts independently from Doran there, as his heir and successor.

12 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

How much he truly trusts her is another question.  I would not be surprised if he is just testing her.  I would not be surprised if he has other agents in that company, and some are tasked with keeping tabs on her.   Nor would it surprise me if he has another ambassador with Young Griff.  Such as Lemore?  But that too is only theory.

LOL, that isn't a theory, it is nonsense. If Lemore was Doran's agent then he wouldn't have sent Arianne to the Stormlands as this mission puts her in considerable danger. She could be captured or she could be killed. Not to mention that it would be completely pointless.

Also, if Doran knew about Aegon he would have *never* sent Quentyn to Dany.

If you want to theorize, do actually read the books.

12 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

I am slightly skeptical of your eagerness to glorify Arianne's newfound Stockholm Syndrome induced Daddy Love, occasioned by her isolation and conditioning in the Tower.  I wonder if a few nights in the sack with a hot dude, and she will not be merrily conspiring against her Dear Old Daddy once again.   And Doran may anticipate this peril and guard against it.  I'm not saying I know one way or the other.

Reread the books. Arianne never conspired against her father specifically, she wanted to implement a plan to avenge House Martell on the Lannisters because she believed her father was to weak to do it. She was also partially motivated by her wrong assumption that her father wanted to disown her in favor of Quentyn ... but they got over both of those issues. It wasn't her house arrest that changed her mind but the subsequent revelation about Doran's plans with Oberyn, the old marriage pact between her and Viserys III, and the Quentyn mission.

Arianne Martell is Doran's eldest child and anointed heir. He wants her to succeed him. And they both want the best for Dorne. They are on the same page.

[Gilbert Green]

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I think for this thread maybe it would be better to get past the question of IF Myrcella will ever be queen and focus on the HOW.

IF remains an open question we can’t answer. But looking at the how of it all makes for much more speculative fun when you just assume she will be queen, however briefly. You can, after all, never come up with good scenarios for how she becomes queen if you assume she will not.
The pieces are moving on the board.

Myrcella is in transit. she could be held up indefinitely in Dorne. She could be captured on the road just as Cersei had planned, but by different people. She could be captured at sea by Aurane Waters in the Stepstones, or by the Redwyne fleet going from Dragonstone to Oldtown. She could just as easily be captured by the Golden Company, who also have plenty of boats and just arrived. She could even, miraculously, make it back to KL safely though I would not bet on it.

Reach armies are in KL awaiting Margaery’s trial. If the trial goes badly, those armies will attack the Sparrows and Faith Millitant. What a mess. If the trial result is more favourable for Margaery then the armies will leave for Storm’s End, and the Faith will largely control KL. Predicament for Cersei.

Euron controls the Shield Islands, and so the Mander. Willas has gathered an army that he can’t move because Cersei refused him ships. An attack on Oldtown is imminent, and the Redwyne fleet may not arrive in time to help. Nor, it seems, will Willas Tyrell. Once Oldtown falls, which seems likely, everything along the Honeywine will also be vulnerable to Ironborn raids.

Stomlands armies are busy defending the Stormlands against the Golden Company. Only Dorne and the Vale are relatively unoccupied and theoretically available to help the Reach, but their leaders may have other plans.

I question many of these assumptions, even if you deem it better that I not.

- I doubt very much that Myrcella is going to be queened, then killed.  I think she has already been queened and killed.

- I doubt very much that Myrcella is in transit, unless you mean her corpse.  I think Rosamund is in transit.

- I doubt very much that Cersei plans to attack Myrcella's entourage.  I think Doran lied to inflame the Sand Snakes, now that he is ready to give them bloody work.

- I doubt Euron controls the Shields.  I think the Lords of the Shields control the Shields, and Euron has left them to their fate, exactly as he explained to Aeron.

- I doubt there is going to be an attack on Oldtown, still less that it will fall if attacked.

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I think for this thread maybe it would be better to get past the question of IF Myrcella will ever be queen and focus on the HOW.

IF remains an open question we can’t answer. But looking at the how of it all makes for much more speculative fun when you just assume she will be queen, however briefly. You can, after all, never come up with good scenarios for how she becomes queen if you assume she will not.

There are basically two ways for her to be queen. One would be as Tommen's short-lived successor if she gets back to KL with Lady Nym. That would be a kind of superfluous plot, I think, as Tommen's sudden death could just as well lead to the complete collapse of the Lannister-Tyrell regime. Not to mention that Tommen and Myrcella could both live long enough to fall into Aegon's hands alive. That could create the more interesting dilemma of what to do with them.

That plot could also work if only one of them were alive, but I'm still struggling with the idea that many people at court would deem it a great idea to proclaim or crown a Queen Myrcella with enemies closing in on them from all side. Very few people would fight for a (most likely fake) girl queen.

The other way would be for Myrcella to fall into Aegon's hands on the way to KL and her not becoming a queen regnant but merely Aegon's first (?) queen consort. That could be more interesting as it would cause us to ask what to do with Myrcella once she is no longer needed, i.e. after Aegon sits securely on the throne.

[Gilbert Green]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

LOL, what? The Hand has led the armies of the king in more than one occasion. And, again, in the king's absence he is effectively the king himself.

There is no theory there. Arianne is told to gather information on Aegon and then decide by herself if the guy is the one they should go to war with or not. And she acts independently from Doran there, as his heir and successor.

LOL, that isn't a theory, it is nonsense. If Lemore was Doran's agent then he wouldn't have sent Arianne to the Stormlands as this mission puts her in considerable danger. She could be captured or she could be killed. Not to mention that it would be completely pointless.

Also, if Doran knew about Aegon he would have *never* sent Quentyn to Dany.

If you want to theorize, do actually read the books.

Reread the books. Arianne never conspired against her father specifically, she wanted to implement a plan to avenge House Martell on the Lannisters because she believed her father was to weak to do it. She was also partially motivated by her wrong assumption that her father wanted to disown her in favor of Quentyn ... but they got over both of those issues. It wasn't her house arrest that changed her mind but the subsequent revelation about Doran's plans with Oberyn, the old marriage pact between her and Viserys III, and the Quentyn mission.

Arianne Martell is Doran's eldest child and anointed heir. He wants her to succeed him. And they both want the best for Dorne. They are on the same page.

The Hand of the King is the King's agent.  LOL all you want.

Arianne was asked to act on Doran's behalf, not on her own behalf.  There's a difference.

Agents must inevitably exercise judgment, because they rarely have their principals sitting on their shoulders telling them exactly what to do.  Nonetheless, the distinction matters.  An agent who knowingly acts contrary to his principals wishes, betrays his principal.

Arianne DID in the past conspire against her father's wishes.  She acted on what she wanted; not on what he wanted.  That's the difference.  I guess when you say she wasn't conspiring against him, you merely mean she was not plotting to murder or usurp him, which is true enough.

Edited January 10 by Gilbert Green

[Hippocras]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There are basically two ways for her to be queen. One would be as Tommen's short-lived successor if she gets back to KL with Lady Nym. That would be a kind of superfluous plot, I think, as Tommen's sudden death could just as well lead to the complete collapse of the Lannister-Tyrell regime. Not to mention that Tommen and Myrcella could both live long enough to fall into Aegon's hands alive. That could create the more interesting dilemma of what to do with them.

That plot could also work if only one of them were alive, but I'm still struggling with the idea that many people at court would deem it a great idea to proclaim or crown a Queen Myrcella with enemies closing in on them from all side. Very few people would fight for a (most likely fake) girl queen.

The other way would be for Myrcella to fall into Aegon's hands on the way to KL and her not becoming a queen regnant but merely Aegon's first (?) queen consort. That could be more interesting as it would cause us to ask what to do with Myrcella once she is no longer needed, i.e. after Aegon sits securely on the throne.

Yes, I tend to agree. If she just gets back to KL without incident and then succeeds Tommen it is a lot of wasted potential drama and just feels extra. So this scenario is the least likely.

For GRRM I think the real drama would come from forcing Cersei to choose between her daughter and her son. If Myrcella joins Aegon’s cause, willingly or otherwise, then Cersei will choose Tommen because he is the one who is with her and who she can control, and that will both break her heart and fully expose her as the power hungry manipulator she is.

Which means of course that either Myrcella’s betrothal to Trystane will be broken, or he will die during capture. But if the Golden Company is responsible for Trystane’s death it is hard to see Dorne then becoming Aegon’s ally. A bit of a puzzle. Who captures Myrcella and how is Trystane disposed of.

[Lord Varys]

On 1/10/2024 at 7:54 PM, Gilbert Green said:

The Hand of the King is the King's agent.  LOL all you want.

I do it just now, lol. The Hand is the highest royal official and the lieutenant of the king in his absence and incapacitation. In now treatise on statecraft and law would such a person be described as an 'agent'. It is like saying the British Prime Minister is an agent of the king. 

On 1/10/2024 at 7:54 PM, Gilbert Green said:

Arianne was asked to act on Doran's behalf, not on her own behalf.  There's a difference.

Not in a hereditary monarchy. Both Doran and Arianne act in the best interest of House Martell and Dorne. Arianne is the future of both, and Doran maintains and preserves his house's power as well as the integrity of the state of Dorne for his heir.

Arianne is sent to Aegon because the Prince of Dorne feels his daughter, heir, and successor has to make such a crucial call.

13 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Yes, I tend to agree. If she just gets back to KL without incident and then succeeds Tommen it is a lot of wasted potential drama and just feels extra. So this scenario is the least likely.

In part it would depend on when exactly Tommen were to die and how. If there is still a lot of plot going on between Tommen's death and Aegon's rise then it could make sense to have Myrcella as a queen in-between.

13 hours ago, Hippocras said:

For GRRM I think the real drama would come from forcing Cersei to choose between her daughter and her son. If Myrcella joins Aegon’s cause, willingly or otherwise, then Cersei will choose Tommen because he is the one who is with her and who she can control, and that will both break her heart and fully expose her as the power hungry manipulator she is.

Don't think that is an issue at all. Not only is Cersei not in charge of things, but Tommen is the crowned king. Whatever Myrcella does or is forced to do would not change who Cersei - or anyone running the show at Tommen's court - views as the king.

13 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Which means of course that either Myrcella’s betrothal to Trystane will be broken, or he will die during capture. But if the Golden Company is responsible for Trystane’s death it is hard to see Dorne then becoming Aegon’s ally. A bit of a puzzle. Who captures Myrcella and how is Trystane disposed of.

Here you seem unintentionally confused. Doran knows that Cersei wanted to murder Trystane on the way to KL which is why he decided to only sent Myrcella back to KL. Trystane is safe and sound with Doran in Sunspear.

The Golden Company and Aegon wouldn't care about Myrcella's betrothal to Trystane if they felt that her claim could strengthen Aegon's. And that call would then likely be made before a pact with Arianne is made ... and not play a big role in that context.

[Gilbert Green]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I do it just now, lol. The Hand is the highest royal official and the lieutenant of the king in his absence and incapacitation. In now treatise on statecraft and law would such a person be described as an 'agent'.

Why not?  What you describe is 100% consistent with the principles of Agency.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

It is like saying the British Prime Minister is an agent of the king.

It is not even remotely like that.  Westeros is not a constitutional monarchy.  The King can appoint and dismiss his Hand at will, just as I can hire and fire my lawyer at will.

Not so with the current PM of Britain.  So yeah.  Partly for that reason, and no doubt for other reasons, the PM of Britain cannot be called an agent of the King.

However, it might be more to the point to remember that the Hand of the King is the King's SUBJECT, just as Arianne is the SUBJECT of Prince Doran Martell.  Not to mention that she is his daughter.  That's two reasons why, normally, she would normally be thought to owe him loyalty and obedience.  A duty that will continue even after he removes her from whatever position of trust he has appointed her to.

Edited January 11 by Gilbert Green

[Hippocras]

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Here you seem unintentionally confused. Doran knows that Cersei wanted to murder Trystane on the way to KL which is why he decided to only sent Myrcella back to KL. Trystane is safe and sound with Doran in Sunspear.

The Golden Company and Aegon wouldn't care about Myrcella's betrothal to Trystane if they felt that her claim could strengthen Aegon's. And that call would then likely be made before a pact with Arianne is made ... and not play a big role in that context.

Doran knows of the plot to kill him on the road, so he changed the route. He told Swann he would send Trystane to KL and there is no sign actually that he went back on his word about that. He simply changed the means of travel and the timeline.

But even if Trysyane does stay in Dorne, he still needs to be disposed of, for any plot to go forward. His purpose in this is not that he will be Myrcella's consort, but that he will die to put Martells and Tyrells at each others' throats. The Martells will probably kill Margaery and the Tyrells will kill Trystane.

 

I firmly disagree BTW with your often stated belief that Cersei has been rendered powerless. It is temporary, and you underestimate her. Your dismissal of her colours all of your predictions but I believe it is a serious misjudgement on your part. She WILL get out from under the thumb of the High Sparrow, and she WILL find ways to enforce her wishes.

 

correction:

It does say in Arianne 2 WoW that Trystane stayed home, sorry. Don’t think it changes the picture much though. Trystane will die or his betrothal will be broken.

Edited January 12 by Hippocras

[SaffronLady]

1 hour ago, Hippocras said:

She WILL get out from under the thumb of the High Sparrow, and she WILL find ways to enforce her wishes.

To paraphrase the actual Lord Varys, "the good queen's work must not be undone", and what better way to make sure of that than let her come back into power.

[Lord Varys]

19 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I firmly disagree BTW with your often stated belief that Cersei has been rendered powerless. It is temporary, and you underestimate her. Your dismissal of her colours all of your predictions but I believe it is a serious misjudgement on your part. She WILL get out from under the thumb of the High Sparrow, and she WILL find ways to enforce her wishes.

Nah, this is a world where politics is depicted realistically. Cersei is not just a woman - who shouldn't wield any real power in this patriarchal society, anyway - but an aging woman who has been stripped naked and publicly humiliated. If magic wands were to decide politics in this world then Cersei could make her shame and humiliation go away.

But she cannot do that in Westeros.

More importantly, though, she doesn't even have the men she would need to seize power again. Reread AFfC. George had her deliberately disband the armies of the West, sending them back home. In KL there are right now 30,000-40,000 Reach men (half of the original Reach force that marched with Renly - the other half went back home with Garlan, Alerie, and Olenna). House Lannister only has a couple of hundred household guards ... and the City Watch is under the command of one Ser Humfrey Waters, a man whose name Cersei didn't even know when Qyburn mentioned him.

In addition, half the city is effectively under the control of the Faith Militant - a faction that would also oppose Cersei's return to power.

On the Small Council the last Lannister crony is Harys Swyft, and he is about to leave for Braavos. Pycelle is dead, Kevan is dead, and Qyburn has been dismissed from the council. Nobody would vote or even consider to restore the regency to Cersei.

Cersei does have a mild potential to stage assassinations ... under the assumption that Qyburn and his instrument Ser Robert Strong remain loyal to her (which isn't a given as Qyburn just needs somebody to sponsor his experiments). But it is obvious what would happen if Cersei were to have Ser Robert murder Mace, Margaery and/or Randyll - the Reach men in the city would not just accept that nor fall in line behind her. They would storm the castle and kill her or they would simply abandon King Tommen and his mother.

There is just no way for her to seize power again on her own. In the long(er) run there is a chance for her to get back into power if she (1) strikes alliances with other powerful factions (Euron), and/or (2) raises another army of Westermen. But to do either or both she does have to leave KL (and return to Casterly Rock).

19 hours ago, Hippocras said:

It does say in Arianne 2 WoW that Trystane stayed home, sorry. Don’t think it changes the picture much though. Trystane will die or his betrothal will be broken.

No need for Trystane to die. And the betrothal doesn't have to be broken, either. That is only for a scenario where Myrcella marries before her death. But it could also just be formally dissolved.

I do think, though, that there is a chance that both Doran and Trystane might die soon as I think that Euron's reaction to Aegon's proclamation and his subsequent alliance with Arianne and Dorne will either be a daring raid on the Water Gardens or even a successful sack/burning of the shadow city and Sunspear. He does have the men and means for that, and Sunspear/the Water Gardens are defenseless against attacks from the sea.

Euron is after the Iron Throne, so once he learns that there is another serious pretender he and his allies will become his next targets.

Edited January 13 by Lord Varys

[Hippocras]

50 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

 If magic wands were to decide politics in this world then Cersei could make her shame and humiliation go away.

It is not about magic wands. It is about fear. Her shame and humiliation mean absolutely nothing if people are terrified. So I insist. You underestimate her.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Hippocras said:

It is not about magic wands. It is about fear. Her shame and humiliation mean absolutely nothing if people are terrified. So I insist. You underestimate her.

Nobody is afraid of Cersei. People were never terrified of her ... and now the walk has turned her into a laughingstock.

She could seize power again if she had an army in the city and they were beholden to her (and not, you know, mocking her because of her sagging tits, stretch marks, and the shit she was covered in when she reached the castle) ... but there is none there.

It is also quite silly to repeat I was underestimating Cersei. She could be as cunning and subtle as Littlefinger and Varys ... without an army she has no way of seizing power now. Nor can she manipulate the people in charge to grant her a seat at the table as they all hate her. She has no friends left at her son's court.

What we can, perhaps, assume is that Cersei is going to leave the capital with a boom. There could be assassinations or assassination attempts. But she can't seize power from her current position.

14 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

To paraphrase the actual Lord Varys, "the good queen's work must not be undone", and what better way to make sure of that than let her come back into power.

That is a common misconception. Varys liked what Cersei did as Queen Regent - ruining Tommen's government and slowly destroying the Lannister-Tyrell alliance. But she doesn't want her or anyone decisive in control now that Aegon is out in the open with a target on his back.

Now it is crucial that Tommen's people distrust, fight and kill each other, preventing them from mounting a decisive attack against Aegon. That is what Varys tells the dying Kevan. It is why he murdered Pycelle and Kevan the way he did. This whole thing won't lead to Cersei regaining power.

[Willam Stark]

6 hours ago, Hippocras said:

It is not about magic wands. It is about fear. Her shame and humiliation mean absolutely nothing if people are terrified. So I insist. You underestimate her.

Tywin is the only Lannister people feared, but he's dead.

Cersei is just a joke compared to him.

[Lord Varys]

17 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

Tywin is the only Lannister people feared, but he's dead.

Cersei is just a joke compared to him.

While I'm fully behind that statement, I actually do think Cersei has the potential to become a truly feared figure if she successfully teams up with Euron. They could do such wonderfully terrible things together. And just think how much Qyburn and Euron could learn from each other!

Once her children are gone Cersei is going to want to see the world burn. And she will acquire the means to do that. Not just puny KL (which was never her city, anyway) but Westeros.

The people who assume or insist that Cersei's future is in KL lack the fantasy/imagination what she could accomplish if she teamed up with Euron and really unleashed the resources of Casterly Rock in the West.

[SaffronLady]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Now it is crucial that Tommen's people distrust, fight and kill each other, preventing them from mounting a decisive attack against Aegon. That is what Varys tells the dying Kevan. It is why he murdered Pycelle and Kevan the way he did. This whole thing won't lead to Cersei regaining power.

And who among "Tommen's people" distrust, fight and kill (by the hands of others) more than his own darling mother? I agree with your line of reasoning about Varys' goals, I just don't think Cersei returning to power conflicts with that.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, SaffronLady said:

And who among "Tommen's people" distrust, fight and kill (by the hands of others) more than his own darling mother? I agree with your line of reasoning about Varys' goals, I just don't think Cersei returning to power conflicts with that.

Of course it does.

What you mean is that the double murder will, as Varys predicts in the Epilogue, lead to further distrust, infighting, and killings ... but Cersei simply cannot be the person or faction who profits from that by regaining power.

Because, again, she lacks the support, resources, and manpower to do it.

Whatever she does cannot result in her regaining power. If she were to kill Mace/Margaery/Randyll she would be arrested by the Tyrell men in the castle. If she magically could kill them, too, then the tens of thousands of Tyrell men would just storm the castle and put her down. If she could magically make them disappear into thin air, the High Septon would turn the Kingslanders against her and they would storm the castle and put her down. And so on and so forth.

There is no scenario imaginable in which Cersei could remove her (imaginary) enemies and convince the men serving them that she had nothing to do with that and would be the ideal person to be in charge again. And even if she could do that magically then the result would be that the Realm and large would immediately turn against her and Tommen, declaring for Aegon or another pretender.

That is also why literally nobody suggesting that Cersei could regain power ever came up with a plausible scenario how this might happen. People just go on and say Cersei will be in charge again, treating the politics in the setting as non-existent and the characters involved as mindless drones.

The only plausible scenario for her to gain power again is for her to leave KL, make a new alliance and/or raise another army in the West. And there are very plausible scenarios for both. There is subtle foreshadowing for the Euron alliance, and AFfC includes lines that indicate that Cersei and Tommen are genuinely loved by the rank-and-file of the Westermen. They didn't see her being paraded naked through the streets, and if they hear about that (best from Cersei's own lips after her return to Casterly Rock), if Cersei presents herself as a poor and helpless widow in distress, if she were to only get back home after the deaths of not just Joffrey but also Tommen and/or Myrcella ... then this would have a lot of potential to motivate the Westermen to take up arms again on her behalf. She is their rightful liege lady right now.

If you look at AFfC it is also obviously a deliberate choice on George's part to not only have Cersei send the Westermen back home (to weaken Cersei/Tommen and make Aegon's rise easier and plausible) but also to have literally no Westermen but Ser Harys Swyft on the Small Council. Realistically Cersei should have staffed the council with her own lords bannermen in the wake of her father's death. Instead of Merryweather, Rosby, Qyburn, and the ridiculous Aurane Waters there should have been Marbrands, Presters, Crakehalls, Farmans, etc.

It just makes no sense that she would favor morons from the Reach and Crownlands over men sworn to her as Lady of Casterly Rock. But plot-wise it makes a lot of sense ... because George wants the West out of the picture for the time being until Cersei uses them after she has to leave KL.

[SaffronLady]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

treating the politics in the setting as non-existent

As my personal overspecialization is the Faith, I can assure you that the Faith's political logic ... is non-existent. No idea about politics in general though.

[Hippocras]

6 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

And who among "Tommen's people" distrust, fight and kill (by the hands of others) more than his own darling mother? I agree with your line of reasoning about Varys' goals, I just don't think Cersei returning to power conflicts with that.

Exactly. She is a vicious cornered rat ATM and will do anything. She no longer has any reason to care in the slightest what people think of her because they already think the worst. That, for someone like her, is very liberating. Not pretense. Only brutality.

 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

but Cersei simply cannot be the person or faction who profits from that by regaining power.

Sure she can:

Tyrell armies are leaving for Storm's end, so not a threat. She has in her service a monstrous brute who can't be killed by normal methods. She knows about all the hidden passages of the Red Keep from the Tyrion search, and about Aerys's hidden wildfire caches from her previous exploration in defense of KL.

And not everyone loves religious fanatics. She is now potentially a magnet for others who are unimpressed with their treatment by the Faith, while at the same time being someone the Faith think they have subdued. The Faith thinks as you do. They underestimate her and that is hubris.

 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Because, again, she lacks the support, resources, and manpower to do it.

She has Qyburn and the spy network, a monster who can't be killed and is utterly devoted to serving her, and will collect any and all enemies of the religious fanatics. With Kevan gone, she has noone to dispute her authority over Westerlands forces, and the Tyrell armies are leaving.

 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Whatever she does cannot result in her regaining power. If she were to kill Mace/Margaery/Randyll she would be arrested by the Tyrell men in the castle.

Randyll and Mace will be gone shorrly. They have both the Golden Company and the Ironborn to contend with. Possibly Dorne as well. And Margaery will probably die because of the Sand Snakes, making Cersei's hands appear clean.

 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If she magically could kill them, too, then the tens of thousands of Tyrell men would just storm the castle and put her down.

Where will these Tyrell men come from if they are off fighting in the Reach and the Stormlands?

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

the High Septon would turn the Kingslanders against her and they would storm the castle and put her down. And so on and so forth.

You assume first of all that Kingslanders are thrilled to be governed by religious fanatics and will not riot, and second, that Cersei will entirely lack her own moves. But surrounded by enemies, she will probably indeed evacuate and then burn her enemies. She does not care one ounce about the lives of the people of KL who saw her naked and threw chamber pot contents at her. Burn them all.

Or, she will find a way to burn her remaining enemies in KL more selectively, and once that is done, call the Western armies back to KL. With the Reach armies defending the Reach and the Faith Millitant mostly burned, noone will stop them coming.

 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If you look at AFfC it is also obviously a deliberate choice on George's part to not only have Cersei send the Westermen back home (to weaken Cersei/Tommen and make Aegon's rise easier and plausible) but also to have literally no Westermen but Ser Harys Swyft on the Small Council. Realistically Cersei should have staffed the council with her own lords bannermen in the wake of her father's death. Instead of Merryweather, Rosby, Qyburn, and the ridiculous Aurane Waters there should have been Marbrands, Presters, Crakehalls, Farmans, etc.

Her father's bannermen were loyal to her father, not her. Of course she is deluded by the idea Aurane and Taena etc are loyal to her, but the point is that she thought they were. She resents nothing more that the thumb her father held her down with, and so of course would not be promoting his people, particularly if they could then have more influence than her over Tommen.

But now all the Westerners are headed to a safe stronghold in the West. All she needs to do is go there as well, with her little King. Or, if she manages to deal with the Faith without destroying KL, she will call back the Western armies to entirely control the capital.

With Strong by her side, and acting as conduit to Tommen she will finally be able to assert grudging authority over her father's people. Any anyone who rebels: well, she is quite likely to ally with Euron, so rebels will simply find their lands raided, women raped and stolen and castles burned by Ironborn.

Edited January 13 by Hippocras

[Lord Varys]

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Exactly. She is a vicious cornered rat ATM and will do anything. She no longer has any reason to care in the slightest what people think of her because they already think the worst. That, for someone like her, is very liberating. Not pretense. Only brutality.

That is a wrong characterization at the moment. She still has a lot to lose. (Access to) her two children. While Tommen and Myrcella yet live, she won't turn into a loose cannon. That she restrains herself we could already see in the Epilogue.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Sure she can:

Tyrell armies are leaving for Storm's end, so not a threat. She has in her service a monstrous brute who can't be killed by normal methods. She knows about all the hidden passages of the Red Keep from the Tyrion search, and about Aerys's hidden wildfire caches from her previous exploration in defense of KL.

Some part of the Tyrell armies will eventually leave for the Stormlands. But it is ludicrous to assume all of the men will go as the Golden Company are only 10,000 men united (and Aegon has right now barely more than half of that) and Mace Tyrell would like to maintain order in the city and sure his position at court would not be challenged in his absence.

It is also equally clear that every unaffiliated people in the city will fall over themselves to attach themselves to the Tyrells. They have the power now, while Cersei is the whore queen who was hounded through the streets. No self-respecting person would like to be seen with her now.

Cersei has no clue about the hidden tunnels as she only searched the Tower of the Hand which is now gone.

Whatever wildfire caches were found were actually transported to the guildhall and thereafter to the ships for Tyrion's river trap. They are gone now. Whatever wildfire remains is still hidden and not at prominent places in the city as folks already found hidden wildfire both beneath the Dragonpit and the Great Sept.

To find more old wildfire Cersei would need men she didn't have and time she didn't have and the means to have her men do clandestine searches of the cellars of the city. She can't. Not to mention that Wisdom Hallyne has literally no reason to actually provide her with the means to burn down the city the alchemists live in. Cersei is not the Mad King. She doesn't rule.

Ser Robert Strong is certainly a factor to consider, but he can't murder openly or even clandestinely and the Tyrell men then just accept Cersei as the new ruler if Mace, Margaery, and Randyll all died violent deaths. That can't work in a society of actual people.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

And not everyone loves religious fanatics. She is now potentially a magnet for others who are unimpressed with their treatment by the Faith, while at the same time being someone the Faith think they have subdued. The Faith thinks as you do. They underestimate her and that is hubris.

So far there is no indication that anyone in KL hates the sparrows and the Faith Militant more than Cersei. She and her house are very much unpopular in this city, due to recent history, unlike Queen Margaery and her family.

The sparrows actually enjoy a sound support basis among the common people and also among some of the nobility (Cersei's own cousin among them). This is how and why they could turn their leader into the new High Septon.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

She has Qyburn and the spy network, a monster who can't be killed and is utterly devoted to serving her, and will collect any and all enemies of the religious fanatics. With Kevan gone, she has noone to dispute her authority over Westerlands forces, and the Tyrell armies are leaving.

Qyburn doesn't really have much a spy network on his own ... but even if he had - knowing stuff is not going to make Cersei's enemies go away and restore her to power.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Randyll and Mace will be gone shorrly. They have both the Golden Company and the Ironborn to contend with. Possibly Dorne as well. And Margaery will probably die because of the Sand Snakes, making Cersei's hands appear clean.

If you reread the books then the Ironborn threat is for Willas and Garlan to take care of. They have known about the fall of the Shield Islands for months, yet Mace and Randyll and Mathis didn't move a finger to deal with that. Mace continued the siege of Storm's End, and Randyll remained at Maidenpool (until Margaery was arrested).

There is not the slightest indication that Mace and Randyll will suddenly decide to send their men (lacking ships) down south to deal with Ironborn they can't reach and risk losing their hold in the capital.

There is not the slightest indication that Margaery would die 'because of the Sand Snakes' nor do the Sand Snakes have a motive to try to mess with or kill her. She is not their enemy. What the Sand Snakes would want to do is to ruin and destroy Tywin's daughter, especially once they figured out that the bitch queen turned the killer of their father into an undead monstrosity. Which is something Lady Nym should realize in about five minutes after she arrives at court.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Where will these Tyrell men come from if they are off fighting in the Reach and the Stormlands?

They won't all leave.

More importantly, though, the matter of the regency will be decided right now, when Kevan's corpse is discovered. Just as Mace Tyrell, the Hand, will decide who the Iron Throne is going to blame or accuse of the double murder. And their obvious scapegoat will be Cersei herself. Nobody is going to stop them from arresting her and accusing her of arranging the murders of Pycelle and Kevan, just as nobody saved Tyrion from getting arrested for Joffrey's murder.

If Cersei had weeks and months of freedom of the castle (she is already under house arrest) to reconnect with folks back home and trusted lieutenants to raise more armies she could eventually seize power again. But she won't get either.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

You assume first of all that Kingslanders are thrilled to be governed by religious fanatics and will not riot, and second, that Cersei will entirely lack her own moves. But surrounded by enemies, she will probably indeed evacuate and then burn her enemies. She does not care one ounce about the lives of the people of KL who saw her naked and threw chamber pot contents at her. Burn them all.

She can't 'burn the all'. She doesn't have the wildfire and even if she did - the city won't burn now that it is snowing. Reread the Epilogue.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Or, she will find a way to burn her remaining enemies in KL more selectively, and once that is done, call the Western armies back to KL. With the Reach armies defending the Reach and the Faith Millitant mostly burned, noone will stop them coming.

Nobody is going the Faith Militant - and even if that happened. There are tens of thousands of sparrows in the city. They are a mass movement which is going nowhere.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Her father's bannermen were loyal to her father, not her. Of course she is deluded by the idea Aurane and Taena etc are loyal to her, but the point is that she thought they were. She resents nothing more that the thumb her father held her down with, and so of course would not be promoting his people, particularly if they could then have more influence than her over Tommen.

As Cersei is the legal heir of her lord father and now Lady of Casterly Rock her father's bannermen are hers now. It makes some sense that she distrusts Jaime and Kevan, but there it makes literally no sense that she wouldn't staff her court and council with Westermen she either trusts or wants to bind to herself.

That is ... unless George wants to keep the Westermen out of the game until they are needed later on.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

But now all the Westerners are headed to a safe stronghold in the West. All she needs to do is go there as well, with her little King. Or, if she manages to deal with the Faith without destroying KL, she will call back the Western armies to entirely control the capital.

She might try that. But without an army she cannot possibly cross the Riverlands ... and she doesn't have an army. Not to mention she would have been quickly captured by the Tyrells if she were to run away with Tommen. Her only chance to flee is by ship.

And the notion that Cersei of all people could actually disguise herself properly or flee with no or only a very small retinue is pretty ludicrous. She once disguised herself as Jaime and she could pretend to be a serving girl while visiting Jaime in secret ... but she could not possibly travel the countryside without giving herself away immediately.

14 hours ago, Hippocras said:

With Strong by her side, and acting as conduit to Tommen she will finally be able to assert grudging authority over her father's people. Any anyone who rebels: well, she is quite likely to ally with Euron, so rebels will simply find their lands raided, women raped and stolen and castles burned by Ironborn.

To ally with Euron she has to search him out. And she could and would only do that once Tommen is gone as Euron wants Tommen's throne.