After dany essos

[astarkchoice]

Thought id start thread on how we feel essos could look post dany ending slavery.

It seems she will win upcomming battle which will probably trigger a fire rigion backed slave revolt followed by dany going to westeros to kill the walkers and possinly be queen etc.

Sooo its how do we think   the post slavery dany essos will shape up? 

 

Dothraki: minus slavery these guys will be as welcome as a fart in an enclosed space all over essos. If dany doesnt destroy them by burning their capital then all sides will attack them any time.they come near cities! They will be slowly replaced by the far more likeable(and useful,) lambmen or the various cultures around essos can reclaim their ruined cities  begin to build into the centte of esso again..the dothraki  are basicaly cancer for essos and they need cut out

 

Free cities: most of these will be just fine as they transition from slaver.control,  more democratic free cities will probably shy away more from.war over the disputed lands .  This will allow them to be settled safely  en masse The bearded  priests will need non slaves to make up their warrior caste though.

Slavers bay : will obviously need a serious rework.  It could start with making  its whore and pitfighting niche cities volunteer only. Building unsullied is out but it can now begin to produce something between unsulled and the 'slave troops worth less thn the sword they hold) to defend their new cities from dothraki. Now in the slaver bay chapters theres a lot of reffeences to crossbows,tyrion mentions seeming them and long spears a lot and mocks they wont help vs dragons....now this may be a temp.change in normal gear innresponse to dragons but feels m mentions seeming them and lomg spears a lot and mocks they wont help vs dragons....now this may be a temp.change in normal gear in response to danys dragons but feel sorta like something slavers bay would have enmasse  anyway as crossbows can make usesless.troops wortwhile and they are ideal cheap anti draon measure en-masee,.either way lots of crossbows is good vs dothraki! Theres evena small.island with a niche for professional crossbow men who could be hited to both help defend slavers bay and train up its defences! Astopors crumbling walls  havev gotta be built up but overall they are in a good place to resist and change. The new ghis iron legions can be brought.over to bulk up security and both thy and astopor are noted for having elephants...excellent anti horse weapons

Edited April 8 by astarkchoice

[Club-foot cleft-lips]

Mamluks were freed slave soldiers that formed a sultanate that existed from the 13th-16th century. One might think George is setting up the unsullied to take a similar role. I could see such a path for slavers bay.

There are also plenty examples of steppe nomad clans seizing power and becoming city people, from the Persian Cyrus to a over a thousand years later with the Mongol Temujin. Dany might be able to settle some, but eventually new horse lords will come to take their place.

Dany was more than willing to crown one brother as king, so maybe she will be willing to crown another, if she recognizes the claim. If she feels Westeros is secure under a rightful Targaryen ruler, she may even decide to go back to Essos and rule as Queen/Empress/Khaleesi there instead. 

Missandei might also make a good chosen successor so long as Dany's troops know she is her chosen rep. she also has unsullied brothers after all, and is a former slave, and confidante of the queen. not a bad choice if were deciding leaders meritoriously.

After uprising and regime change, on average it takes twenty years for things to really stabilize, and thats the modern pace. Essos may very well need Dany to lead after all her wars, otherwise...

Edited April 9 by Club-foot cleft-lips

[SeanF]

The destruction of the slaver coalition outside Meereen, and the revolt in Volantis, likely mean the game’s up for slavery in Western Essos (Myr, Lys, Tyrosh are not big military players, and would be quite isolated).

Steppe peoples tend quite rapidly to become settled peoples, once they acquire lands.  Many of the Dothraki who followed Dany, likely form a ruling caste, in parts of Essos, like the Goths and Vandals.

The city states no doubt go to war with each other, and they have their own tyrants and strongmen, who clash with the more democratic elements, within those states.  

[Aldarion]

Slavery will return, though perhaps not as extensively as it was before. So far Daenerys had done absolutely nothing to set up an alternative economic system from what we have seen. So overall, not much will change.

The only way Essos will come out of slavery permanently is if Daenerys, after winning the War for Dawn, returns to rule in Essos and keeps entire Slaver's Bay under control for long enough for any reforms she does (and as I said, she has to start from economic reforms) to take root.

[astarkchoice]

12 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Slavery will return, though perhaps not as extensively as it was before. So far Daenerys had done absolutely nothing to set up an alternative economic system from what we have seen. So overall, not much will change.

The only way Essos will come out of slavery permanently is if Daenerys, after winning the War for Dawn, returns to rule in Essos and keeps entire Slaver's Bay under control for long enough for any reforms she does (and as I said, she has to start from economic reforms) to take root.

Maybe but the fact shes now tied into what seems to be the majority religion in essos....if the fire god messiah says slavery is wrong it seems unlikely itd be allowed back.

[Aldarion]

7 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Maybe but the fact shes now tied into what seems to be the majority religion in essos....if the fire god messiah says slavery is wrong it seems unlikely itd be allowed back.

Christianity said war is wrong and Christians kept fighting each other. It also said that slavery was bad, yet slavery only began to be outlawed quite late in the Middle Ages:

• France 1315
• Sweden 1335
• Ragusa 1416
• Castille 1477
• Lithuania 1588
• Russia 1679

So yeah, I don't see religion making that much of a difference.

[SeanF]

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Christianity said war is wrong and Christians kept fighting each other. It also said that slavery was bad, yet slavery only began to be outlawed quite late in the Middle Ages:

• France 1315
• Sweden 1335
• Ragusa 1416
• Castille 1477
• Lithuania 1588
• Russia 1679

So yeah, I don't see religion making that much of a difference.

It was outlawed in England, in the 12th century.

For sure, some ex-slaves will want to start slaving.  But, you’ll still have millions of freed people who have no intention of being re-enslaved.  The people who were creating the Unsullied are all dead, and many of the Dothraki will have left the supply chain.

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

Probably war torn and slave ridden. Dany isn't changing people, she's just killing a few off and taking a few west.

[Aldarion]

16 hours ago, SeanF said:

It was outlawed in England, in the 12th century.

For sure, some ex-slaves will want to start slaving.  But, you’ll still have millions of freed people who have no intention of being re-enslaved.  The people who were creating the Unsullied are all dead, and many of the Dothraki will have left the supply chain.

If we look at history and human nature, most likely outcome is simply that there will appear a new slaver class, a combination of "old blood" slavers who survived and "new blood" slavers risen from the ranks.

You saw what happened at Astapor, with Cleon the Butcher and his new Unsullied.

[astarkchoice]

23 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Christianity said war is wrong and Christians kept fighting each other. It also said that slavery was bad, yet slavery only began to be outlawed quite late in the Middle Ages:

• France 1315
• Sweden 1335
• Ragusa 1416
• Castille 1477
• Lithuania 1588
• Russia 1679

So yeah, I don't see religion making that much of a difference.

It could maybe come back but id doubt it

 the anti slavery movement thats building will probably rip it out soo badly itl take some time for it to  grow back if ever.

In the meantime if the 2 major cogs  of the slavery macbine (dothraki and pirates) could die out in the short term.

The dothraki minus slavery will become public ebemy number 1 (assuming dany doesnt extermunate them) and the  now freedman controlled major naval powers will clean out the basilisk isles more often, hell they may look to settle there thus ending that as a slaver holdout too

Theres also the fact bravos is anti slavery (and possibly their facless men too) while they arent in a positiom to reverse it worldwide now they def would be in a position to stamp.out its resurgance

Edited April 11 by astarkchoice

[House Cambodia]

Marx gave a pretty decent blueprint nearly 2 centuries ago. Societies move on from slavery to feudalism (so Essos will adopt a Westerosi class system) to industrial capitalism. More recently industrial capitalism has been succeeded by neoliberal capitalism. Or maybe Essos will go down Marx's preferred route into socialism and communism, although I see no signs whatsoever of that happening.

[Aldarion]

7 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

It could maybe come back but id doubt it

 the anti slavery movement thats building will probably rip it out soo badly itl take some time for it to  grow back if ever.

In the meantime if the 2 major cogs  of the slavery macbine (dothraki and pirates) could die out in the short term.

The dothraki minus slavery will become public ebemy number 1 (assuming dany doesnt extermunate them) and the  now freedman controlled major naval powers will clean out the basilisk isles more often, hell they may look to settle there thus ending that as a slaver holdout too

Theres also the fact bravos is anti slavery (and possibly their facless men too) while they arent in a positiom to reverse it worldwide now they def would be in a position to stamp.out its resurgance

I don't see your scenario as likely. It might happen if Daenerys decides to stay in, or come back to, the Slaver's Bay. As it is however, the anti-slavery movement is nearly certain to fail in the short term, not too long after Daenerys leaves. Force of habit is simply too strong. It will certainly be significantly diminished, but realistically, complete overthrow is unlikely. Such things take time.

4 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

Marx gave a pretty decent blueprint nearly 2 centuries ago. Societies move on from slavery to feudalism (so Essos will adopt a Westerosi class system) to industrial capitalism. More recently industrial capitalism has been succeeded by neoliberal capitalism. Or maybe Essos will go down Marx's preferred route into socialism and communism, although I see no signs whatsoever of that happening.

Socialism and communism require extreme levels of bureocratic development, which we don't see in Essos - and they don't work anyway. Transition of Essos from slavery to feudalism is the only possible route, but since Daenerys failed (so far) at introducing feudalism (or anything, really) to replace slavery, resurgence of slavery in the short term is nearly certain.

[House Cambodia]

7 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Socialism and communism require extreme levels of bureocratic development, which we don't see in Essos - and they don't work anyway. Transition of Essos from slavery to feudalism is the only possible route, but since Daenerys failed (so far) at introducing feudalism (or anything, really) to replace slavery, resurgence of slavery in the short term is nearly certain.

I wrote exactly that about socialism and communism. As far as feudalism goes, Dany's only been in Slavers' Bay 5 minutes, hardly long enough to determine if she will eventually Break the Wheel. It depends on who she leaves behind to manage the cities and spread the word. Far too early to judge.

[astarkchoice]

47 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

I don't see your scenario as likely. It might happen if Daenerys decides to stay in, or come back to, the Slaver's Bay. As it is however, the anti-slavery movement is nearly certain to fail in the short term, not too long after Daenerys leaves. Force of habit is simply too strong. It will certainly be significantly diminished, but realistically, complete overthrow is unlikely. Such things take time.

I cant see how it can fail short term when all signs point to it being rooted out utterly of essos. The slavery machine itself requires slavers bay to break/train slaves and it will probably be feedmen run for the near future, the dothraki who are major slave capturers will either join dany or be exterminated/nearly wiped out , volantis is set to fall  as are most of the free cities.

Its hard.to see.how it recovers or ever gets.to the same.heights again once the slaver bay 'processing' part of the slavery machine is ended nd the same time the dothraki  as they are may cease to exist, this  all on top.of the free cities moving to the more efficent freedmen run  capitalism bravos model probably for good !!

once the slavers lose again in mereen..its a semi religiously motivated powderkeg basicaly! Also bravos (and or the faceless men) may intervene to prevent slavery taking hold again! 

 

 

Edited April 11 by astarkchoice

[SeanF]

15 hours ago, Aldarion said:

I don't see your scenario as likely. It might happen if Daenerys decides to stay in, or come back to, the Slaver's Bay. As it is however, the anti-slavery movement is nearly certain to fail in the short term, not too long after Daenerys leaves. Force of habit is simply too strong. It will certainly be significantly diminished, but realistically, complete overthrow is unlikely. Such things take time.

Socialism and communism require extreme levels of bureocratic development, which we don't see in Essos - and they don't work anyway. Transition of Essos from slavery to feudalism is the only possible route, but since Daenerys failed (so far) at introducing feudalism (or anything, really) to replace slavery, resurgence of slavery in the short term is nearly certain.

What I would expect to see, in the wake of the slavers’ defeat, and Volantene revolt, is an end to the vast disparity in numbers between free and slave.

Meereen, Volantis, and their hinterlands would have millions of freedmen, ranging from very poor to very rich.  Some of the very rich freedmen might well wish to acquire slaves as status symbols, but they can’t re-enslave the majority, and they can’t import the vast numbers needed to restore the proportion of slaves to 75-80% of the whole.

So, you might see up to 5% of the population, able to afford at least one slave, although some would refuse on ethical grounds, and slaves being 10-15% of the population, but the vast majority of people being free.  Most likely, the freed fieldhands would be mainly sharecroppers, or smallholders.
 

 I'm guessing the big landowners will be Dothraki nobility, Shavepates, some survivors of the Old Blood/Great Masters, freedmen who have made good, the Red Temples, and the government.

Edited April 12 by SeanF

[Vaegon the dragonless]

Well I guess it depends on if Dany goes to every slaver City before she goes to Westeros but also if she comes back to Essos. If she only goes to lets say Volantis, then I dont expect Norvos,  Qohor or even the Three sisters to stop slavery immediately but a anti-slavery campaign from both Braavos and Volantis could eventually root out slavery in western Essos.  And a coalition could fail especially if Dany stays or die in Westeros. If she comes back and actually reigns in Essos then slavery could be stomped out, but only in the same way as in Pentos, officially they would be no slaves but my guess would be that significant number of "indentured" servants or farmhands would magically appear, because Danny would not be able to be everywhere all of the time. So I guess that in the short terms Dany could make it so that at least a good chuck of slaves become free, but I expect that it would take a long time before slavery actually goes out of fashion. I also suspect that places like Slaver's bay will collapse and become a backward and dangerous place at least for a few decades if Dany wins and leaves with slavery coming back in some places but not in others with each side fighting each other. The question of the Dothraki is a interesting one, because a few people talked about how nomads typically become a ruling class in settled cities, but we know that that is not the case for the Dothraki, because they did it once, they did not settle has a ruling class once they conquered Sarnor, they enslaved and destroyed the cities turning back profitable farmlands to prairie, so I dont see them changing that, but if Dany takes over the rest of Essos with the helps of the Dothraki they might enjoy a upper status and some sort of privileged "freedom" but a newly unified Essos will certainly resent them and sooner or later a genocidal campaign against them seem probable, if it would succeed or not is another topic tho. 

[astarkchoice]

Id say again the slavers are done, their revival seems highly unlikely

The dothraki are an essential slave 'gathering ' part of slaver machinery and they are about to either follow anti slavery dany or shel possibly toast large numbers of them before she flees! 

Mereen is about to be resolved brutaly by the anti slaver forces victory and the fighting forces of the  slavers themselves being disease ridden when they flee home. That leaves slavers bay ie the place where almost all slaves get processed/trained up an anti slaverly zone for some time. No slave training = no slaves

The free cities we see slaves outnumber freemen 3 or 5 to 1 and are majority fire worshippers all ready to pop ans follow theit anti slavery messiahs example.

In Volantis we see half the guard are fire worshippers, the head priest is there with his own 1000 strong force. The widow can get inside the  inner black walls , has her own armed forces and says the entire slave population is ready to rock.

Add in we know most mercs would be in the disputed lands (varys says they are heating  up in 1st few books) and swarming towards bravos for stannis iron bank backed contact for 20k men so most will be too far to intervene in any way.

Finaly we know the faceless men  and bravos dont like slavery , they were in a position before where tbey had to  accept it but now they are in a position to stamp it out anywhere it threatens to emerge

 

 

Edited April 19 by astarkchoice

[Aldarion]

23 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Id say again the slavers are done, their revival seems highly unlikely

The dothraki are an essential slave 'gathering ' part of slaver machinery and they are about to either follow anti slavery dany or shel possibly toast large numbers of them before she flees! 

Mereen is about to be resolved brutaly by the anti slaver forces victory and the fighting forces of the  slavers themselves being disease ridden when they flee home. That leaves slavers bay ie the place where almost all slaves get processed/trained up an anti slaverly zone for some time. No slave training = no slaves

The free cities we see slaves outnumber freemen 3 or 5 to 1 and are majority fire worshippers all ready to pop ans follow theit anti slavery messiahs example.

In Volantis we see half the guard are fire worshippers, the head priest is there with his own 1000 strong force. The widow can get inside the  inner black walls , has her own armed forces and says the entire slave population is ready to rock.

Add in we know most mercs would be in the disputed lands (varys says they are heating  up in 1st few books) and swarming towards bravos for stannis iron bank backed contact for 20k men so most will be too far to intervene in any way.

Finaly we know the faceless men  and bravos dont like slavery , they were in a position before where tbey had to  accept it but now they are in a position to stamp it out anywhere it threatens to emerge

 

 

"Slavers" being done doesn't mean "slavery" is. See above what I wrote about the slavery in Medieval Europe.

[astarkchoice]

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

"Slavers" being done doesn't mean "slavery" is. See above what I wrote about the slavery in Medieval Europe.

Itd be hard to see how the logistics of a new slave trade get set up given how dramaticaly the old one is about to burn.

If most of the cities move to a bravosi model theyl be richer anyway prevebting slavery resurection.

Ig may not go away altogether like westeros with the ironborn thralls but bar a huge essosi wide  economic collapse it seems  unlikely to ever reemerge at the same industrial scale it is depicted as now

[Aldarion]

2 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Itd be hard to see how the logistics of a new slave trade get set up given how dramaticaly the old one is about to burn.

 

Slavery doesn't spring from slave trade, rather, slave trade springs from slavery.

People with no livelihood were historically quite ready to sell themselves to slavery just to put bread on the table. We actually see that happening already in Meereen, all because Daenerys focused on political emancipation but ignored economic realities.

So long as you have population, you have potential slaves. No trade necessary. In fact, slave trade only appears after slavery has already reached basically industrial levels.

2 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

If most of the cities move to a bravosi model theyl be richer anyway prevebting slavery resurection.

 

Which is why I consistently point out that if you want to destroy slavery, you have to make sure to replace it with something different.

Colonate / serfdom would probably be easiest to set up.

2 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Ig may not go away altogether like westeros with the ironborn thralls but bar a huge essosi wide  economic collapse it seems  unlikely to ever reemerge at the same industrial scale it is depicted as now

That I can agree with. As Sean said, we may see some 10 - 15% (though I would expect up to 25% in some areas) of population ending up in slavery again.

Massive improvement for sure, but hardly the complete end of slavery I get the impression some are expecting.