First Names as Clues

[Hippocras]

On a number of threads I have run into very strong opposition against the mere notion that first names of characters might be clues that help for deciphering lineages and allegiances. A very large number of participants on these forums it seems would prefer to believe that GRRM simply pulls random names out of a hat without giving them any thought.

Apart from the fact that this position is rather contemptuous of GRRM (which is an odd stance to take if you love the books he wrote enough to spend time discussing them here) it also goes against the evidence.

We do not have trees for every single family, and even the family trees we do have are clearly incomplete. They should ALL, until the series is finished, be considered works in progress. But even the little information we do have makes it abundantly clear that first names are not random. Family trees are deceptive because they represent only the patriarchic lens, following only the male line. This is a problem taken straight out of real life history, and so accurate and realistic. But it is also gives GRRM an opportunity to do the sort of thing he does best: HIDE IMPORTANT INFORMATION IN PLAIN SIGHT.

GRRM loves his little clues, and he loves his deceptions. First names create the possibility to do both. He can also use these names to "garden", meaning he can use a first name to indicate that he wants to build a connection between certain families, but work out the details of how exactly the connection works later. Some characters are named after their fathers, paternal grandfathers, etc. Other characters are named after someone who is not actually related by blood, for example Lollys's bastard being named after Tyrion. But just as often, particularly when it comes to daughters and younger sons, we find first names whose inspiration came from the MOTHER's family, not the father's.

This last point is very important. GRRM has written a series that is packed with very interesting female characters, going way back in the histories. Once can not plausibly argue that GRRM thinks male lines of descent are actually more important to his story than female ones. But the female lines of descent WILL NEVER BE SHOWN IN PATRIARCHICAL FAMILY TREES. So he needs other tools. Female lines of descent are communicated to his readers with a small list of tools:

1. History. He shows relationships between families and gives historic reasons why a marriage alliance might occur between them at a certain point in time. Sometimes this is because characters fight together in a war, or serve on the Small Council together. Sometimes this is because peace alliances between opposing sides are demanded by those in charge, in order to end a conflict. Sometimes also, the alliances occur to re-integrate important female line descendants into the new main line of a family. GRRM is in part writing his historical background stories precisely so that he can build up a vague sense of the relationships that lie behind the decisions that various characters make in the main series.

2. First names. These are actually important clues if you bother to look at them, but only as long as you always keep in mind that GRRM can also use them to deceive if he wishes.

3. Physical descriptions. Very often we do not know much about what a character looks like, but sometimes GRRM does use appearance as a vague way to suggest ancestry, and a character's ancestry is as much their mother's side as their father's.

4. Candidates for marriage. The Targaryens, have historically sought to "keep the bloodlines pure". This has of course led to many of them marrying their siblings or their cousins if no sibling was available. Many people seem to think that Aegon V, because he was not convinced by the practice of sibling marriage, had complete disregard for bloodlines at all. However this belief does not take into account just how many branches of female line Targaryen bloodlines had sprung up by the time of Aegon V. His queen Betha and the matches he chose for his children may not have been direct siblings or even first cousins, but, when the series is complete, there is IMO no doubt at all that we will find out every single one of them represented a reintegration of a different Targ line of descent into the main royal Targaryen family. The hints he has left for where they got their drops of Targ blood lie in the earlier histories where we learn about various betrothal arranged by queens, who was a candidate to marry a prince at various points in time, and who saved who's life or refused to fight who in which wars (to avoid kinslaying).

In short, first names matter. They are not random. But to find the pattens behind them you need to remember that the children of DAUGHTERS are found under OTHER family names.

[Darth Sidious]

Names in some instances could be correlated to the blood family.

Tyrion = little Ty, for being the son of Tywin.

Craster = Starc = Stark. Supports the belief that Craster is a Stark. There are clues to point the reader to this conclusion.

Karstark = Stark

Then the most important. Drogon = little Drogo. 

[Hippocras]

On the Vale Succession thread we have been discussing the name Jonos. These are the characters in the series and histories named Jonos:

Jonos Stark - no idea how long ago he lived or what his story was, but this tells us the name Jonos was probably of First Men origin.

Jonos Arryn - killed his own brother and tried to defy Targaryen rule. He probably represented those in the Vale who did not want the next rulers of the Vale to descend from a Stark. Ronnel and his Stark wife left no male heir but might have had a daughter(s). Jonos's failed coup and rebellion probably resulted in the name Jonos falling out of favour in the Vale.

Jonos Bracken - his story is incomplete. He currently has no known male heir but several daughters and was one of those who carried Hoster Tully for his funeral. Variations of the name Barba are common in the Bracken family, and that, along with the fact that there is a resemblance in the sigils, suggests that House Bracken has historic ties to House Ryswell in the North (Barb-rey Ryswell).

Jonos Frey - Son of Rhaegar Frey and Jeyne Beesbury, grandson of Aenys Frey and Tyana Wylde, great-grandson of Walder Frey and Perra Royce. House Wylde is one that I have flagged elsewhere as having suspected ties to House Bracken that predate the Dance. House Beesbury has a complex history of vague Targaryen connections, many of the more shady sort, which also fits with the striking naming practices of this branch of the Frey family.

 

Jonos Arryn probably received his name from his mother, as no other Arryns hold this name. We don't know his mother Sharra's origins but her name only exists one other time in the histories, and that is a witch queen of the Riverlands. 

We can therefore reasonably suspect that Sharra Arryn came from a family in the Riverlands with First Men origins, who later adopted the Fot7, and who allied with the Arryns in opposition to House Hoare not long before the Conquest. We are more likely to find other characters named Jonos in the the Riverlands because of this.

We can also reasonably suspect that way back in time King Jonos Stark had a mother from the more Southern part of the North (a Ryswell?), or maybe even directly from the Riverlands, and that is why this name, which does not otherwise appear in the North, was given to him. As he is the first Jonos we know of chronologically, it could also be the other way around, where he is the source and other Jonos characters were named after him, but IMO in that case there would be other characters named Jonos in the North in general and in the Stark tree in particular.

Edited April 21 by Hippocras

[Hippocras]

Having mentioned Jonos Bracken in the previous post, it is only fitting that I now turn my gaze to House Blackwood.

Interestingly, House Blackwood is currently led by Tytos Blackwood. Tytos is a name that only otherwise appears in the Westerlands. It follows the "Ty_" pattern that is so prevalent among the Lannisters.

The first Tytos we know of is Tywin Lannister's father, who he resented as an embarrassment. Tytos Blackwood is not in his immediate line of descent and he would not likely have been named in honour of that Tytos who was not all that respected. However other lines of descent from House Lannister exist, farther back and by more circuitous routes.

Another Tytos is found in House Brax, who are Lannister bannermen. Tytos Brax may descend from some different Tytos Lannister, but may also have simply been named after his father's liege lord.

Finally there is Tytos Frey. He is the son of Jared Frey and his cousin Alys Frey, grandson of Walder Frey and Cyrenna Swann. Descent from House Lannister may have come to him via House Swann, or via the non-Walder branch of House Frey.

Looking back in the Lannister family tree the most recent candidate offshoots we know of occurred when an unnamed Lannister married an unnamed Baratheon woman some time after the Dance, with whom he had 3 daughters and 1 son. This was not a Lannister who became a lord of Casterly Rock. The Baratheon match is key, because the Durrandons are connected to the Blackwoods historically, and Swanns are of course Baratheon bannermen.

Edited April 21 by Hippocras

[Here's Looking At You, Kid]

The Targaryens have Greek sounding names.  The author used the Greek gods as his inspiration for the Valyrian dragon lords.  

[Moiraine Sedai]

The menu of first names is limited. Look how often the name “ Walder” and “Jon” are used. The only clue we get from names are the bastards and where they were born.  It only applies for last names for those who have it. 

[Hippocras]

3 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

The menu of first names is limited. Look how often the name “ Walder” and “Jon” are used. The only clue we get from names are the bastards and where they were born.  It only applies for last names for those who have it. 

When people give long supporting arguments for something it is usually worth reading.

Edited April 22 by Hippocras

[Castellan]

On 4/21/2024 at 8:43 PM, Hippocras said:

On a number of threads I have run into very strong opposition against the mere notion that first names of characters might be clues that help for deciphering lineages and allegiances. A very large number of participants on these forums it seems would prefer to believe that GRRM simply pulls random names out of a hat without giving them any thought

I agree the author has put a lot of effort into nomenclature and seems to enjoy it.

Putting seemingly 'out of place' first names around the place could just reflect an exercise in 'fraying the edges' of his patterns so that it doesn't appear brand new and unrealistic. Names do spread about over time. But I suppose I am prepared to believe he'd take the trouble to put a Lannister connection somewhere in the family tree if he gave the name Tytos to a character pretty remote both geographically and in alliances from the current house.

I can't see the interest in it though, unless it had some effect on the plot, or on characterisation (eg a Blackwood that acted rather Lannister-like) or inheritance. or a hidden identity.

There are other aspects to nomenclature, too, like simply the meaning of the name in the real world, its historical associations, or homages or references to literature and popular culture. I'd be more interested in those.

Anyway good luck hunting down these connections.

[Hippocras]

@Castellan

I guess I have a strong hunch that lineages are about to become a major issue in Winds. We see multiple families with no clear heir, and with apoarent connections farther back to other regions. 

Everyone agrees of course that the Freys are all about to murder each or find other ways to climb.

The Vale has a more civil approach but a great deal is going on behind the scenes. Meanwhile the North mostly believes Bran and Rickon are dead and so some of the moves the families there are making are related to who they think is rightfully next in line.

Really every region has a bit of this going on. So the names are clues to where the story is going in this sense.

[Aebram]

18 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Really every region has a bit of this going on. So the names are clues to where the story is going in this sense.

Do you have any specific ideas about which of these similar names will reveal a hidden connection between families that has some effect on the story??

Are there any places in the story so far where this has already happened?

[Hippocras]

On 4/25/2024 at 7:49 AM, Aebram said:

Do you have any specific ideas about which of these similar names will reveal a hidden connection between families that has some effect on the story??

Are there any places in the story so far where this has already happened?

So far it is all set-up, much like the micro-clues that set up the red wedding; as we now know the signs of the Frey-Bolton scheme were all there, but very subtle. If I am wrong we will know when Winds comes out, but if I am right, the family connections and history element is going to all come to the fore all at once everywhere. GRRM is not going to do it in one place first and then give away what he has planned for other regions. Ultimately, given how tangled up between regions these various chains of inheritance are, it would probably be impossible to tell the story for a single family separately anyway.

So while some people think I am wasting my time looking at the histories and the names and trying to connect the dots as best I can, I kind of think that it is one of the best paths for theory making that we have available while we wait.

That said my strongest hunch, which is really where this comes from, is that LF believes that first Catelyn then Sansa was/is his key to power because of their lineage, and this is precisely why GRRM has concealed the Tully family tree. I suspect the reason why this is the case is going to untangle itself in the Vale, which implies they have a connection to the Vale farther back than simply via the Lysa-Jon marriage.

Edited April 26 by Hippocras

[Hippocras]

On 4/21/2024 at 6:35 PM, Hippocras said:

Having mentioned Jonos Bracken in the previous post, it is only fitting that I now turn my gaze to House Blackwood.

Interestingly, House Blackwood is currently led by Tytos Blackwood. Tytos is a name that only otherwise appears in the Westerlands. It follows the "Ty_" pattern that is so prevalent among the Lannisters.

The first Tytos we know of is Tywin Lannister's father, who he resented as an embarrassment. Tytos Blackwood is not in his immediate line of descent and he would not likely have been named in honour of that Tytos who was not all that respected. However other lines of descent from House Lannister exist, farther back and by more circuitous routes.

Another Tytos is found in House Brax, who are Lannister bannermen. Tytos Brax may descend from some different Tytos Lannister, but may also have simply been named after his father's liege lord.

Finally there is Tytos Frey. He is the son of Jared Frey and his cousin Alys Frey, grandson of Walder Frey and Cyrenna Swann. Descent from House Lannister may have come to him via House Swann, or via the non-Walder branch of House Frey.

Looking back in the Lannister family tree the most recent candidate offshoots we know of occurred when an unnamed Lannister married an unnamed Baratheon woman some time after the Dance, with whom he had 3 daughters and 1 son. This was not a Lannister who became a lord of Casterly Rock. The Baratheon match is key, because the Durrandons are connected to the Blackwoods historically, and Swanns are of course Baratheon bannermen.

I wanted to add a couple of thoughts to the Blackwood discussion:

In the above post I looked at the name Tytos. We do not know what relationship Tytos Blackwood had to Alyssa Blackwood, who was Lord Walder Frey's 4th wife. She was probably his great-aunt, going by the fact that she died around the time Tytos was born having first borne 5 children. She would have married Walder around 265 AC (early in King Aerys II's reign).

The fact that her branch of the Frey family makes use of names with the Ty_ prefix as well (Tyta, Tysane), and furthermore has marriage alliances with the Brax family (who also use the name Tytos), and Lefford family (also of the Westerlands) further strengthens the evidence that the Blackwoods have some Lannister in their lineage.

The evidence is therefore mounting that the current Blackwoods descend from the unnamed Lannister male who married a Baratheon woman in 178 AC (30 years before Tya+Gowen, who were 76 years before Cersei+Robert), during Aegon IV's reign (while Jeyne Lothston served as his mistress, House Lothston ascendant). This nameless couple had 3 daughters and 1 son.

Edited April 26 by Hippocras

[Hippocras]

The networks of families really are fascinating when looked at this way! I wish more people were interested.

Anyway, what is comes down to is a theory on GRRM’s process, which is based on the fact that all these names, families, backstories, historical events….all of it…are incredibly complex and difficult to manage UNLESS

there is an underlying process involved. Something that ties it all together. I really don’t think GRRM just writes his histories for fun (Fire and Blood, Dunk and Egg etc.), rather, he is trying to work out some of the details of the backstory that are actually needed for the main series. He wants the web of families to be complicated and tangled, and he wants that to also be justified. But some strands are more tied together than others.

[Sandy Clegg]

48 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

there is an underlying process involved. Something that ties it all together. I really don’t think GRRM just writes his histories for fun (Fire and Blood, Dunk and Egg etc.), rather, he is trying to work out some of the details of the backstory that are actually needed for the main series. He wants the web of families to be complicated and tangled, and he wants that to also be justified. But some strands are more tied together than others.

We need diagrams. Sometimes I wish this site allowed posting images in posts. Maybe that should be a reward for hitting Council Member?

[Hippocras]

On 4/29/2024 at 9:17 AM, Sandy Clegg said:

We need diagrams. Sometimes I wish this site allowed posting images in posts. Maybe that should be a reward for hitting Council Member?

I have actually tried mapping it but it is really difficult because it needs more than 3 dimensions really. Even just tracing one name at a time goes off on several relevant tangents. For example it is not just a single character's name that says something about their background; it is also the names that character helped choose for their children, the name of their spouse, etc. always keeping in mind of course that sometimes people are named in honour of someone not related by blood.
 

Two dimensional bubble maps quickly become a big mess of crossed lines, unless you only ever trace one descendant at a time.

 

EDIT:

Just wanted to add that characters named in honour of someone not related by blood are much less likely to then have their name passed down in their family - unless they themselves become famous and powerful. Brynden, Hoster and Robert for example are probably not generally Blackwood names as they are direct references to their liege and their King. Unless these names previously existed in the Blackwood family then they would not repeat.

Edited April 30 by Hippocras

[Hippocras]

I want to look next at the name Jeyne. It is one of the most common names in the Westerosi histories and main series. It therefore seems on first glance like it could be one of the most meaningless. But I guess that if we can draw some information from even a name as widespread as Jeyne, then we must be on to something here.

1. The first known Jeyne chronologically was Jeyne Nutt, briefly a queen (apparently a rebellious one) of the Trident. She claimed her Kingdom in opposition to the Storm Kings and House Durrandon. As we know already that House Blackwood was frequently allied with House Durrandon, it follows that House Nutt was probably not all that cozy with House Blackwood, or possibly that they descended from one of the brothers of Roderick Blackwood whom Arlan III Durrandon had distrusted and passed over when he added the Riverlands to his Kingdom. The domain of House Nutt was probably in and around Nutten, which is in the general vicinity of the Crossroads, Lord Harroway's Town and Saltpans, not far from Harrenhal.

2. Jeyne Poore was a leader of the Poor Fellows in the Faith Militant Uprisings, born in or before 28 AC. She operated in the Kingswood between KL and Storm's End. Her direct ancestors would be found in families connected also to the Uprisings, such as vassals or lesser branches of Bracken, Doggett, Morrigen, Hightower, Horpe, Beesbury and Ambrose. Same for her descendants if any.

3. The next Jeyne we find in the histories was also of the Riverlands. Jeyne Harroway was the sister of queen Alys Harroway. She died trying to protect her sister in 44 AC. We do no know if she was married or had any children before she died, however I have proposed elsewhere that it is possible that she was the mother of Maegor Towers, born earlier that same year. A Harroway match for Jordan Towers would have secured his hold over the lands of Harrenhal after his father won them, and would also have bound him to King Maegor.

4. From the same period of history there was also Jeyne Westerling; one of Maegor's wives. She was initially the wife of Alyn Tarbeck who died at the God's Eye fighting for Aegon the Uncrowned. She had a son with Alyn who became Lord Tarbeck, and therefore a line of descent from her starts with that House.

Jeyne Arryn b. 94 AC. Her companion was Jessamyn Redfort, and her heir was Joffrey Arryn whose right was disputed in the Vale succession crisis.

Jeyne Rowan b. in or before 101 AC was the mother of Samantha Tarly, a key figure in the reign of Aegon III whose sister Sansara may have married Torrhen Manderly or his son while he was Hand.

Jeyne Merryweather, Jeyne Mooton and Jeyne Smallwood were all b. in or before 130 AC and were contenders to marry Aegon III. All suffered the maiden's day curse, accused of going together to brothels and fondling women.

Jeyne Manderly b. before 149 AC. Mother of Sansa and Serena Stark (twins?). Daughter or granddaughter of Torrhen Manderly who served on the small council with Thaddeus Rowan. Her descendants are found in Houses Umber and Cerwyn but not in House Stark, at least not directly. Her grandmother may have been Jeyne Rowan.

Jeyne Lothston b. 164 AC was Aegon IV's 8th mistress in 178 AC. She may also have been his daughter. She is reminiscent of Jeyne Harroway in that her father was Lord of Harrenhal, and was named Lucas.

Jeyne Waters b. 171-176 was the bastard daughter of princess Elaena and Alyn Velaryon.  Her name suggests that queen Daenaera and perhaps Alyn himself descended from a Jeyne. This could have come via House Harte, but the name may also have existed in House Velaryon which seems to have unspecified links to the Vale of Arryn, particularly House Corbray. The Velaryon family tree is clearly incomplete.

Jeyne Marbrand b. circa 220 was the mother of Tywin Lannister. Her part of the Marbrand tree is interesting because it seems to imply descent from Baela and Alyn Velaryon; Jeyne's father was called Alyn, she had a brother named Damon, who had a son named Addam.  However all of these names did exist in the Westerlands and Reach by other paths, so this is not certain.

Jeyne Royce b. circa 220 was the first wife of Jon Arryn. She would have had an ancestor named after Jeyne Arryn, and likely the name came via more direct ancestry as well.

Jeyne Swann was rescued by Barristan Selmy from the Kingswood Brotherhood. House Swann has numerous names in their history that seem to connect them to the Westerlands as well as the mouth of the Trident although with no trees we can't be more specific. Swanns have, however, married into the Frey family, as have a large number of other Houses using the name Jeyne. Other Jeynes associated with House Frey include Beesbury (Hightower vassals), Darry (near name origin), Goodbrook (near name origin), and Lydden (Westerlands).

Jeyne Fowler b. in or before 275, a close friend of Nymeria Sand. Her father's name is Franklyn and the two names together may suggest House Farman connections, indirectly.

Jeyne Farman was Cersei's childhood friend, b. circa 266.

Jeyne Fossoway b. 271-285 is the wife of Gunthor Hightower. This couple strikes me as interesting as these were key names on opposing sides of the Vale succession conflict, meaning that this match appears to be an echo of the politics following the Dance. Also, as Fossoway lands are close to the Westerlands, the name likely passed to them via that path.

Jeyne Westerling b. 283 is the widow of Robb Stark. Probably descends from the first Jeyne Westerling via House Tarbeck as well as from any number of other Jeynes along the way.

Jeyne Poole b. 286-7 Could well descend from Jeyne Manderly via younger sons of daughters of Serena Stark.

So now that we have a picture of all of the known Jeynes, we can start to construct lines of connection, spreading outwards from Jeyne Nutt of Nutten, Riverlands. As she was a queen she had local allies. This includes direct ancestors of Houses Harroway, Mooton, Goodbrook, Darry, Lothston and Smallwood, and possibly neighbouring Vale Houses (Waxley, Grafton etc.), with the name continuing for generations in those families. Furthermore, allies of House Nutt were not allies of House Durrandon, a House that probably had some opposition elsewhere in their domain. This opposition close to home could include House Swann whose pride may have been offended when they became Durrandon vassals, and who likely had trade alliances with House Mooton. We also know that most of the Crownlands were not all that loyal to the Storm Kings and may have allied with Jeyne Nutt. 

Jeyne Nutt may have found allies in the Westerlands and Vale with an interest in opposing the Storm Kings. However a safer bet is that the transition of the name to those regions happened later, during the period when the Riverlands were ruled by Ironborn. During this period several Riverlands Houses united with families to the East and West who had similar antipathy towards the Ironborn, including specifically Houses Westerling and Farman.

We can therefore see that the name Jeyne spread by a logical path from the Riverlands to at least 3 other Kingdoms of Westeros well before the conquest, and nearly every family containing the name Jeyne is covered by that analysis. Only the North, Dorne and the Reach seem to have begun using the name post-conquest and there are still not all that many examples of it in those regions. 
 

[Hippocras]

Having traced the Jeynes, I now want to summarize the relevance to the main ASOIAF series.

What stands out to me is that Jeyne is a name that seems to originate near Harrenhal, and has a great many mishaps and misfortunes attached to it often with dark magic associations. Both Jeyne Westerlings, Jeyne Poole, Jeyne Harroway, Jeyne Lothston and more - all have really very tragic stories. Jeyne Farman seems relatively lucky in that she did have an encounter with dark magic but managed to flee and live a life free of tragedy (unless having 12 children is her version of tragedy). As for the many Jeynes associated with House Frey - dark magic and witchcraft do not appear to have entered much into it yet, but tragedy in the Frey family seems guaranteed in the next book.

As for lineages, piecing together the chain requires looking at associated names. Above I mentioned Lucas, which, along with Alys is another name that has over-frequent associations with dark deeds and rumours of witchcraft etc. which is why, even though we know nothing at all about Lucas Tyrell, we can certainly take note of the fact that his mother is Alys Beesbury, and the Beesbury family not so long ago provided a Jeyne in marriage into House Frey. Other characters named Lucas mostly come from Riverlands Houses so not far from the mouth of the Trident (Roote, Nayland, Blackwood, Lothston and Harroway) so the same apparent origin as the name Jeyne. Which is precisely why those that are NOT from Riverlands families are the most telling: Like Tyrell, Inchfield and Leygood are Reach Houses and both known Lucases from those Houses are again associated with shady deeds. Shared lineage with Riverlands Houses is all but confirmed even if we do not know the precise path. And the name Lucas is certainly not the only thing connecting House Corbray to the Riverlands either.

[Evolett]

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Having traced the Jeynes, I now want to summarize the relevance to the main ASOIAF series.

Love your breakdown of the name Jeyne. I would add two more to the list: two of Ramsay's girls - Red Jeyne and Grey Jeyne. We know Ramsay hunts and kills girls, naming his bitches after those who "give him good sport." Their origins are unknown to us, they could have been peasant girls or maybe even daughters of lesser known houses but they must have been Northern girls. What's certain is they fit the pattern of suffering very tragic circumstances.   

 

Like the Jeynes, GRRM attaches themes and symbolism to certain first names (or name groups). The characters may or may not be apparently related. I've noticed that some Quentyn characters are connected to fire and stand opposed to Targaryens for instance:

Quentyn Ball

- known as "Fireball" - coat-of-arms was a fireball blazing red and yellow across a night black field.
- his desire to join the kingsguard was rejected, prompting him to support Daemon Blackfyre.

Quentyn Martell

- Died a fiery death, became a "fireball" when blasted by Rhaegal

- Rejected by Daenerys resulting in his family most likely going over to fAegon/Blackfyre.

 

My favourite is the Bael group of names. This includes those named Baelor, Baelon, Balon, Baelish, as well as those not in the name group but exhibiting characteristics of the name group. Rhaegar is an example of the latter, also Mance as Abel (anagramm of Bael). 

The main Bael associations are:

1. usually a king or prince (if Targaryen, then Prince of Dragonstone)
2. roses / flowers
3. Abduction/confinement of a maiden
4. songs/singing
5. slain by kin
6. recognized warrior / great fighter / tourney winner

Our Baels do not always show all characteristics and some are echoed rather than actual. 

Bael the Bard is the lead figure to whom every point applies. Rhaegar mimics this and was even said by men to be "Baelor the Blessed born again." He is killed by his 2.nd cousin Robert.

Mance as Abel ticks almost everything. He is missing the flowers but there is that allusion of being "slain by kin" when Jon (his Black Brother) thinks he's putting Mance out of his misery during the burning of Rattleshirt. 

King Baelor the Blessed wore a crown of flowers and confined his sisters to the Maidenvault. Echo of kinslaying - some believe he was poisoned by Viserys, his Hand and uncle. 

Petyr Baelish - rescues (abducts) Sansa and keeps her confined at the Eyrie. Sigil is a mockingbird - the mockingbird imitates the cries and songs of other birds. Rose to high office in record time. Offered Sansa fruit rather than flowers but as a child, played at being the Prince of Dragonflies and Jenny "with flowers in her hair" - Catelyn wore the flowers. Is now Lord of Harrenhal where the important "Bael moment" took place between Rhaegar and Lyanna. 

Baelor Breakspear, Prince of  Dragonstone, tourney winner where he earned his name "'Breakspear;" his deeds at the Battle of the Redgrass Field inspired a song. Mistakenly slain at the tourney of Ashford Meadow by his brother Maekar. 

Balon Greyjoy - crowns himself king, great reaver/warrior in his youth, captured women as salt wives, slain by his brother Euron. 

 

In many of these cases, the male line of these Baels has difficulty surviving, if at all.

Rhaegar dies and his two children by Elia are slaughtered. Jon is a member of the NW, sworn to take no wife and have no children.

Baelor the Blessed was bound to the Faith and had no children (officially).

Baelor Breakspear's sons died during the Great Spring Sickness.

Balon Greyjoy's male line is in danger of petering out (unless the Captain's daughter has borne Theon a son).

Jon sends Mance's  baby away with Gilly because of the threat of the child being sacrificed by Melisandre.  

 

However, in the Targaryen family tree, prior to those mentioned above, a line of "Baelon" made it past the post. Prince Baelon Targaryen, also known as the Spring Prince, for the season of his birth,  fourth born child of King Jaehaerys I Targaryen and Queen Alysanne Targaryen. He married his sister Alyssa and had three sons with her - Viserys I, Daemon and Aegon (died.) So his line survived through Rhaenyra. 

So how are all accounts and deeds of all these "Baels" relevant to the narrative? I think the hints we get point to the final Bael character being the Last Hero, responsible for the return of Spring. I see Baelor Breakspear as a parallel to the last hero and his broken sword.
 

Note also that Spring is mentioned in some form or other in connection with some of these characters. There's Baelon the Spring Prince as a massive clue, then Baelor Breakspear's son's who die during the Great Spring Sickness, preventing their line from  continuing. Lastly, the tourney of Harrenhal with it's parallel to the tale of Bael the Bard / song of the winter rose took place during the Year of the False Spring. Speaking of roses and flowers - they are a sure sign of winter's end. Flowers bloom in spring.
 

It's also almost as though some force has sought to prevent the birth of such a "spring prince" until now. Each "Bael" tells some portion of the tale. It's up to us to unravel. 

I think the Faith of the Seven also plays a role in this, though I'm not quite sure what it is yet. There's Baelor the Blessed as well as Baelor Blacktyde, one of the very few Ironborn converts to the Faith, murdered by Euron Greyjoy. 

Edited 21 hours ago by Evolett

[Lissasalayaya]

I read about half of the first page, and several of those posts belong to the OP and are very long. I was ready to reply after the first one, but I saw that the OP is complaining that people aren't reading the evidence she's providing or giving it enough thought, so I read quite a bit more. There is a lot more I could read, but I think after reading four or five of your long posts I've given you enough of my attention to entitle me to a response that, whether you agree with it or not, you don't have a right to invalidate. 

First, I love the attention to detail you're giving to the story. It's true that practically every time a character's last name changes, a branch in the origin family's family tree gets dismembered. Undoubtedly, there are elements of the story where that dismemberment is doing some work to conceal information that readers want to know. In order to find it, we'll have to do the leg work of chasing down those family ties and understanding them in contexts ranging everything from love to war to politics. 

What you're describing is a kind of analysis. You're arguing for the value of it. Whatever other people might think about the value of this kind of analysis, I'm not those people, and probably neither are some of the other users here, so I don't appreciate being shoehorned into the role of your oppressor from the get go. This is a minor complaint about tone, so don't take it too harshly, but maybe this feedback will be useful to you. 

The main issue is about content. You present a good kind of analysis and make fine points for its validity, but you haven't shown a proof of its validity. That is to say, you don't appear to have put the idea into practice enough to discover something that readers want to know but don't know.

Tytos Blackwood's name may have some hidden relationship to Tytos Lannister. That hidden relationship may be marked by the fact that they have the same first name. And that hidden relationship may be an in-story relationship (as in the parents of the younger Tytos were inspired by the older Tytos) or an out-story relationship (as in GRRM is dropping a clue for the reader, of which the characters need not be conscious or involved in). But those are all speculations, or what a scientist would call hypotheses. If this kind of analysis is indeed useful for helping readers learn things they don't know and want to know, you need to advance a hypothesis to a proof by showing that it actually does predict things in the existing published story that readers don't know and want to know. 

You're relegating the proof to future books. While it's certainly possible that every meaningful prediction that a kind of analysis implies can be in the sixth and seventh books, it's an unconvincing point when we already have five fat books to work with. Even if we only had one book it would still amount to a confession of failure to prove the efficacy of a kind of analysis. Specific events and revelations in a story are certainly forthcoming in future books, but analysis of a kind should be expected to perform in each book in the series, because the safest assumption is that the author is not reinventing the story's fundamental mechanics or philosophies every time he writes a new installment of the series. With hundreds of families intermarrying for hundreds of years, it's incredibly unlikely that all the dramatic meanings hidden by dismembered family trees are inaccessibly stored up to be revealed all at once in a later book. You should be able to pick a major house at random and find at least one dramatic meaning hidden this way that we don't know. Do it with a few houses and you've got what a scientist would call a theory — a body of knowledge that has withstood an amount of rigorous testing sufficient to greatly eliminate the possibility of fluke in the method. 

In my own studies, I recently came across this mechanic in House Butterwell. I read that Lord Butterwell's daughters each married into a different family, and I had to follow those daughters into their husbands' family trees to see their children, who could be called Butterwell grandchildren just as fairly as Risley, Costayne and Heddle children. Similarly, the Stark kids are all Tully kids, but we call them Stark because they're also Stark, and because they're foremost Stark, by the laws and customs of their society (and by the laws and customs of our society, it bears noting). 

Anyway, I only mean to give constructive feedback and I hope I haven't been discouraging. Dismembered family trees are definitely a hurdle that ASOIAF requires us to leap, whether GRRM intended that or not. 

Edited 16 hours ago by Lissasalayaya

[Hippocras]

@Lissasalayaya I did respond to a couple of posts here and elsewhere that were trite and dismissive, while also being unreflective. But that is not what yours is. I will respond to your points as best I can.

1. Length. I actually try hard to be brief. But this type of analysis does not lend itself to brevity. There is a lot of history, and there are usually several examples of every name.

2. Proof. I agree it would be really very nice to have some. But insisting on it misses my central point really, because what I am trying to show is that GRRM is using first names to draw associative and historical links between families without having to create detailed family trees for every single family. He is writing novels, ultimately. Wasting his time on excessive family trees just to meet fans' needs for "proof" is not actually what any of us want from him. What we want is the actual books to be finished. I am trying to show that first names in fact replace in key ways the need to create an overwhelmingly abundance of family trees. Furthermore we know perfectly well that GRRM is not an "architect" but a "gardener" which is precisely WHY the proof is going to come later, and only where it is needed for him to tell his story. All the rest is really about him dropping seeds, each one of them being one he may or may not in future choose to water. There can be no proof where the author himself has not yet fully worked out the details.

3. The central premise. It is indeed a theory that the links between various families are going to come more and more to the fore in the next book, as each character and family adapts to the new politics and circumstances. Before the Wo5K there was a certain structure of power. However a large number of deaths and political shifts have now happened that dramatically changed where each character stands in lines of inheritance. The Frey family is openly discussing this fact. Littlefinger is manipulating this fact for his own ends in the Vale. So even if we do not have overt proof yet that other characters elsewhere are thinking along these same lines, I really don't think readers should be surprised if that turns out to be the case.

4. Tytos Blackwood is not a descendant of Tywin Lannister's father. Nor was he named out of respect for Tywin's father because Tywin's father was simply not respected. This embarrassment is one of the fundamental drivers of Tywin's character. This means that there must be another Tytos further back in history, whom Tytos Lannister, Tytos Brax and Tytos Blackwood were all named after. And as the Ty_ pattern exists almost exclusively in the Lannister family, and goes very very far back in time, it is very unlikely that this first Tytos was anything other than a Lannister. In my analysis above I showed the likely route.

 

Edited 10 hours ago by Hippocras