Arthur Dayne on the Trident

[Mezeh]

Once again in my opinion Connington’s absence was more critical then absence of Arthur Dayne. Experienced battle commander who knew rebels well by the time could have provided much better battle plan. Besides after his exile his troops were scattered and demoralized and I bet his cousin wasn’t the only one that went to Robert. True Connington was defeated but from what we know it was lack of luck and not lack of skill that caused it.

[saskganesh]

yea. Connington's absence could be argued as being more significant.

[Ran]

But the most important thing is that he wasn't the throne pretender ...

According to previous reports, GRRM stated Robert had made his claim to the throne around the time of the Trident. So he did in fact pretend to it by that point, it seems. His death would have done quite a lot to turn the tide against the rebels.

[Mezeh]

According to previous reports, GRRM stated Robert had made his claim to the throne around the time of the Trident. So he did in fact pretend to it by that point, it seems. His death would have done quite a lot to turn the tide against the rebels.

He had two brothers.

[Ran]

Neither of whom were present there to rally the forces if Robert died (and Renly, in any case, was just a boy), both of whom were trapped in Storm's End hopelessly under siege, and neither of whom were going to be remotely as compelling a choice for king as Robert then seemed to be.

Robert's death would have broken the rebels, IMO. Ned and Jon Arryn might be able to keep it from a rout, but it seems to me that with the inevitable loss at the Trident that would go along with Robert's death, that the rebels would have faded. The stormlords in particular might start peeling away to the Targaryens, the late lord Frey would throw in his troops to Rhaegar, and Tywin would probably throw his support to Aerys.

[Mezeh]

I agree that Robert’s death would be a hard blow to rebels but I really doubt that it would have broken them. You forget how Aerys treated the previous rebellion. The way he did it meant that rebels had no chance but to fight to the victory or death. Yet in the case that Robert that had a great personal hate for Rhaegar died and the prince survived and if Rhaegar was able to take his father under control some reconciliation would become possible. However this was already discussed in different thread. Yet it seems that we agree that presence at Trident of Rhaegar’s friends could have resulted with different outcome. However then it would be a completely different book and Rhaegar was doomed anyway…

[Ser Bruce the Hound KG]

What if Rhaegar was killed by Robert who was then kill by Dayne (who Rhaegar had sent the rally the donish men, even with the prince dead dorne greatest hero would have help, who return only when he was told his prince was in mortal danger) for this lets say the other KG are away are dead (let put Ser Barristan in Arthur place with Lyannna the other still there) who would have been able to rally the troops better

[Aerys]

I'd concede that Dayne, on his own, wouldn't have changed the Trident, but if all three of the Kingsguard present at ToJ had been at the Trident, then things would probably have gone in Rhaegar's favour.

[saskganesh]

Ned and 5 of his friends killed all three later, so its a wash.

I think Rheagar was (badly?) outnumbered, and had bad tactics. He would have to get luckier.

[Ran]

Rhaegar had some numerical superiority at the Trident, but Robert's forces were more experienced and battle-hardened. I doubt bad tactics played any part.

[Mezeh]

Tactics always play some part even it is absent. What is true that Rhaegar didn’t have any experience as battle commander and had very few able commanders on his side. We know only about Selmy and Lewyn Martell one of them was killed and another gravely wounded during the fight. Arthur Dayne White Bull and Jon Connington all had such an experience and their presence could have resulted with better initial planning of the battle. Yet all this is pure speculation.

[Ran]

I didn't say tactics didn't play a part. I said bad tactics probably did not play a part; just because Robert's tactics may have been better does not mean that Rhaegar's were "bad", but rather not sufficient. Though really, we don't actually know that Robert's tactics were superior.

[Mezeh]

You are right we don’t know anything about tactics. Robert’s troops were more experienced plus Rhaegar lacked knights and probably (this is important part for the subject) leaders. Even one good leader could rally routed troops like Bittersteel rallied rebels at Redgrass field.

[Paladin of Ice]

Re: Dayne

From the brief mentions of the battle and such, it seems that the members of the KG present were being used in the function of commanders, either of large portions of Rhaegar's forces, (the vanguard, the right, the left), or significant contingents, (such as Prince Lewyn leading the Dornish) rather than as personal bodyguards. Part of the reason for this is because Rhaegar's forces seem to have lacked experienced or capabale battle commanders. Worse yet, most of his army was made up of fresh levies, peasants and farmers who had never seen a battle before, and mercenaries, so he desperately needed dependable commanders to keep them from breaking.

Therefore, if Dayne had been there, either in addition to the KG members who were or in place of one of them, it's likely he would have been given a similar command position, and quite likely been in an entirely different area of the battlefield. So I think that even had he been there, his presence would have little effect.

Re: Robert dying on the Trident

The rebels might not have made further efforts to unseat Aerys themselves had the Trident been lost and Robert died, but considering how all the leaders and much of the nobility would have been under a death sentence, (and possibly their families as well, just from the evidence of how Aerys executed Rickard Stark and the other fathers of Brandon's band along with their sons and Aerys' actions in the wake of Duskendale), I doubt many would have been in favor of surrender.

Particularly given how forces from the North and the Vale can retreat behind seemingly impervious defenses, unless the battle had been a complete victory for Rhaegar they may have simply retreated and dug in, effectively sundering the kingdom. And so long as Aerys sat the Iron Throne, it might have remained that way. (If Robert had died and Rhaegar won the battle, he might have been able to effect a peace by deposing his father his father and extending a peace offer to the rebels... anything else would have probably resulted in a protracted and bitter conflict).

Re: Battle plans

I remember that Rhaegar had to cross the Trident to engage Robert's forces, but not all the circumstances around it... could he have been hoping to catch Robert by surprise ala Bolton's plan to try and catch Tywin off-guard at the Green Fork? Were Robert's forces laying in wait to ambush Rhaegar's after they crossed? I tried doing a quick search on the Citadel and couldn't find much info on the battle... can anyone recall the particulars offhand or have access to the info through the Citadel or wherever? But if Robert and his host were lying in wait, then it might not have made much difference what the Royalist strategy was.

[Ran]

We've no more information on the Trident than what's up at the Citadel, beyond the details from AFfC I haven't added yet, The implication is not that it was some sort of ambush, but instead a straight battle between two drawn-up armies. We're not even sure which army took the aggressive part and which the defensive, with the ruby ford the presumed focus of maneuvers.

[Bittersteel+]

According to previous reports, GRRM stated Robert had made his claim to the throne around the time of the Trident. So he did in fact pretend to it by that point, it seems. His death would have done quite a lot to turn the tide against the rebels.

I haven't seen this report. Could you give a link?

My assumption about no offical claim before the Sake is grounded on several places in the book which tell us that the whole thing about the new king wasn't desided before the Sake, for example:

Cersei tells Ned that it was his mistake that he didn't take the throne after chasing Jaime out.

Maester Picelle says that after the Sake he hoped Tywin would become the King, not Robert, but "Robert was too strong and Lord Stark moved too swiftly..."

So, everything was possible...

But I think, the more important thing is:

Although maybe Robert was seen as (a!) possible pretender trough Rhaella's blood already at the beginning of the rebellion, but IMHO even if he claimed the throne officially before the Trident, he nevertheless wasn't seen as the only "galeon figure" and the chief who's death would mean the end of the rebellion. Simply because the rebellion did not aim to make him the king, but to deal with the Mad King (that's the main difference between the Blackfire and Robert's rebellion, for example), the Mad King certainly wouldn't forgive any rebel...

[Ran]

Bittersteel+,

Huntington Beach signing:

Robert proclaimed his intention to take the throne ... around the time of the Trident. Would not elaborate any further.

[Bittersteel+]

We've no more information on the Trident than what's up at the Citadel, beyond the details from AFfC I haven't added yet, The implication is not that it was some sort of ambush, but instead a straight battle between two drawn-up armies. We're not even sure which army took the aggressive part and which the defensive, with the ruby ford the presumed focus of maneuvers.

Ran, I'm sure that somewhere in the book is said that the Raegar's forces were jammed against the river while trying to cross it. So Raegar's forces were offensive.

[Bittersteel+]

Bittersteel+,

Huntington Beach signing:

Thanx! You see, technically no one excluded Ned or Jon Arryn.

[Ran]

Bittersteel+,

I'd be interested in seeing that reference. I don't recall it. We know that when Rhaegar and Robert fought, the battle was raging around them, so both sides were focused on the river.

ETA: Found it. Well, not a reference to people jammed against the river, but in ACoK it's said Rhaegar was seeking to cross the Trident.