Arthur Dayne on the Trident

[Bittersteel+]

I'd try to find it a bit later. If I succeed I'll put it here, ok? Just a bit busy working right now...

[Mezeh]

Re: Dayne

From the brief mentions of the battle and such, it seems that the members of the KG present were being used in the function of commanders, either of large portions of Rhaegar's forces, (the vanguard, the right, the left), or significant contingents, (such as Prince Lewyn leading the Dornish) rather than as personal bodyguards. Part of the reason for this is because Rhaegar's forces seem to have lacked experienced or capabale battle commanders. Worse yet, most of his army was made up of fresh levies, peasants and farmers who had never seen a battle before, and mercenaries, so he desperately needed dependable commanders to keep them from breaking.

Therefore, if Dayne had been there, either in addition to the KG members who were or in place of one of them, it's likely he would have been given a similar command position, and quite likely been in an entirely different area of the battlefield. So I think that even had he been there, his presence would have little effect.

We don’t exactly know what Selmy or Jon Darry did and where exactly they were during combat yet you are most probably right. Yet presence of 6 and not 3 of Kingsgurd plus Jon Connington could have resulted that one of two of Kingsguard would be free for bodyguard duty. Arthur Dayne alone most probably would be given commander and not bodyguard position since we know that he commanded before.

[Bittersteel+]

To RAN:

It's in the CoK, chapter Catelyn, after she is back from the Storm's End, she is speaking with Edmure. Edmure says: "If he [Lord Tywin] attacks across the river, he'll end as Rhaegar did when he tried to cross the Trident".

Short, precise, but giving staff for a lot of speculation, why to hell Raegar got himself into such a bad position...

[Ran]

Bittersteel,

Already noted in my post, in an edit you don't seem to have seen. There are no remarks about Rhaegar's troops being jammed against the river, though, any more or less than Robert's. You may be thinking of the Lannisters trying to cross the Red Fork for that particular description.

[Paladin of Ice]

We don’t exactly know what Selmy or Jon Darry did and where exactly they were during combat yet you are most probably right. Yet presence of 6 and not 3 of Kingsgurd plus Jon Connington could have resulted that one of two of Kingsguard would be free for bodyguard duty. Arthur Dayne alone most probably would be given commander and not bodyguard position since we know that he commanded before.

I had the impression that Selmy was in the van for some reason, (perhaps thinking that was how he managed to get so many wounds), but I can't find anything in the Citadel or Wikipedia to back it up, and I'm not up to looking up my copy of GOT right now to see if it says anything. (Hell, I'm not even sure if I have one, since I have a habit of lending them out and not always getting them back).

[Bittersteel+]

Bittersteel,

Already noted in my post, in an edit you don't seem to have seen. There are no remarks about Rhaegar's troops being jammed against the river, though, any more or less than Robert's. You may be thinking of the Lannisters trying to cross the Red Fork for that particular description.

Right. It was my assumption from the whole way the battle could go on. I see no reason for Robert's troops to rush forward to meet loyalists in the middle of the river. They had to meet loyalists on the riverbank. Here there are two tactics: First - slash blindly as soon as the first knight comes across the river or wait a little with the main strike letting the van to come ashore and then drive them back into the rive. The second tactic should be prefered because in such a favorite position rebels had to want to destroy Raegar's troops, not to scare them away. It's also more possible because Raegar's troops IMHO were quite capable of achieving the shore even if Robert's troops just wanted them to stay in the river. So in both cases in the end it would come to driving Raegar's troops back into the river.

It's also very difficult to imagine that the whole battle happened on the ford - or it would be really great ford (flanks sertainly were mentioned by GRRM).

[Ran]

It's clearly a fairly broad ford, and quite shallow. As noted by Ned, the armies were crashing around Robert and Rhaegar while they were in the midst of the ford... so, it's hard to say how it proceeded, precisely.

Technically, Robert's forces could have preemptively attacked Rhaegar as a means of seizing the element of surprise, rather than Rhaegar attacking across the ford. So we really don't know for sure who was attacking and who was defending. Still, I think probably Rhaegar was the one on the attack.

[Craigopogo]

I think if Dayne had been at the battle, and actually with Rhaegar when he fought Robert, that Robert would have been killed. The rebels would have still won the battle though. What happened after that, however, is harder to gauge. Robert had the best claim of all the rebels on the Iron Throne, but even his claim wasn't that great. Stannis would have probably ended up King after Ned lifted the siege at Storm's End.

Losing Robert would have been a significant blow to the rebel's morale, but I get the feeling that Ned and Jon Arryn were good enough to be able to win despite losing Robert. I imagine Tywin would have still attacked King's Landing if the Rebels had won but Robert had died, and by that point things would have been sealed. With the Lannisters entering the war on the rebel's side, Aerys dead and Rhaegar's army defeated, Ned and Jon would have to be morons to not push it and just take the throne.

[Mezeh]

The most critical blow to royal cause was not the defeat itself but Rhaegar’s death. After it loyal forces remained completely without of leadership. So if Rhaegar was defeated but survived and Robert killed there still were other possibilities. Royals still had reserves – army besieged Storm End and Dorne. King Landing could have withstand siege long enough to be relieved and Rhaegar alive probably would not allow to open gates for Tywin forces.

[saskganesh]

so if Rheagar was outnumbered and had arguably worse troops why did he attack across a ford?

I think I have it. as per indications in the Jamie povs, he was calculating that if he won a quick victory, he could then use the opportunity to sort out Aerys (aka dethrone him), become king, and issue clemency to surviving rebels and so end the civil war.

[Lord Stormbringer]

so if Rheagar was outnumbered and had arguably worse troops why did he attack across a ford?

I think I have it. as per indications in the Jamie povs, he was calculating that if he won a quick victory, he could then use the opportunity to sort out Aerys (aka dethrone him), become king, and issue clemency to surviving rebels and so end the civil war.

Or he's simply inexperienced and out-classed. He wouldn't be the first general to attack recklessly because they didn't know any better.

[saskganesh]

Or he's simply inexperienced and out-classed. He wouldn't be the first general to attack recklessly because they didn't know any better.

could be both. he has motive to be aggressive, but he underestimates his foe.

[Amin]

Perhaps a better question might be what if Randyll Tarly and the forces seiging Storms End had participated, instead of being tied down uselessly sieging Storms End for most of the war? Tarly had beaten Robert before, although Mace claimed that victory

[thomaswhigham]

In the battle on the Trident Dayne would have taken out at least two top tieriesh knights from Robert's side, along with, on a conservative estimate, 4-5 other men. 2 top tier knights of Robert's nearest rhaegar, plus about 4 other soldiers, means six soldiers. Assuming the rank and file of robert's soldiers were a bit superior, and setting danye with his magical sword and best in the land skills at a kill limit of 4, that means he probably saved 5 of rhaegar's soldiers. This is because the four that dayne killed could otherwise have gone on and bested five of rhaegars soldiers.

eliminating two top tier fighters on robert's side is harder to calculate in terms of lives saved, but we can assume at least a 3 to 1 advantage in terms of kill ratios for the greatest knights, probably much higher. so all in all dayne would be, conservatively, saving about 11 soldiers by killing the people he killed had he been there. NOW, keeping the same ratio of 5/4 (though robert's were more battle hardened, it might more accurately be something closer to 9/8) this means that another 8 soldiers on Robert's side would die be incapacitated etc because of the 11 men who lived (because the men who otherwise would have killed them were incapacitated by dayne).

so all in all, conservatively, dayne would account for about 7 men, alone, and another 8-9 or so as a tangent for saving soldiers who then could kill more, with the high end of speculation being that dayne might contribute to eliminating 3 top tierish fighters and 6 other men, with about 14 additional deaths as a result, and the low end being 1 top tier fighter and 5 deaths, resulting in about 7 extra deaths. This is, on the strength of that alone, about 16-17 men, 2 of which would be top tierish fighter's of high renown.

Now if the other two kings guard were there, and we downgrade those numbers for them by a scale of at least ten percent, we get a conservative 1 top tier fighter gone a piece, plus 7 or so others.

The key point however, is not that the three would have killed about 30 men between them, and conservatively elmininated 4 top tierish fighters in the process, but that they would be saving the lives of about 30 other soldiers as well.

Besides, watching four of your top swords get cut down, and other rank and file who get too close, is demoralizing. Also, honestly, there would be another 24-36 soliders on rhaegar's side, nearest rhaegar, who were alive and fighting harder because, at least in this region, their side was winning, and kicking serious ass. So it might not change much on a large scale, but on a small scale, in the locale nearest rhaegar, you are talking about creating a huge difference. Robert would counter this by bringing in even more of his greatest kngihts to fight against the kingsguard, and in turn that would lower their presence throughout the length of the battle, and bring about the likelyhood of more top tier knights from his side falling.

speculation: my numbers seem inflated if one assumes that ned's party and their winning accurately demonstrates how the battle at the trident would have gone. the truth is there was no way to get such advantage of 3 to 1 on these guys at the fork. at the fork it is more likely just non stop combat but there would be no way to isolate them down to three fighters on one, and its possible that there was poison involved at the Tower of Joy anyways. So, though the three kingsguard were taken down by Ned and several others, I think that circumstance was unusual, and not how it would have been when they surrounded rhaegar.

You certainly can't discount, at least in the SOFAI, the presence of the best swordsman. if barristan had dayne backing him up, they would be much more effective than fighting alone, and in truth, that is the biggest value of having them. they would make others around them better. So the question of whether or not having Dayne there would matter seems to be yes.

Who would be the one to kill him? Can someone find the amount of men barristan killed? Wasn't it massively high? And wasn't Arthur Dayne at that point better?

[thomaswhigham]

Well Rhaegar's supposed actions about strategy presented here make more sense given his belief in the prophecy. I think if the battle was a bit impulsively over aggressive, it can be chalked up to his sense of destiny. that also explains why he decided to let single combat resolve the situation with Robert, something i always found a bit unusual.

[Andhaira]

Robert would have crushed Arthur Dyne. Note that Selmy was, from all accounts not given a commander's position; he wa probably protecting rhaegr. And he nearly perished from his wounds.

Had Dyne sought out Robert Dynes fate would have been similar. Though IMO robert would have tried NOT to kill Dyne, only take him out for the fight and then later pardon him.

Another thing i am curious about: Wasn't Rhaegar weilding a valyrian steel blade? (aka Blackfyre, or some other?) If not that would be pretty stupid.

[Piper]

Robert would have crushed Arthur Dyne.

You so sure about that? Dawn would have given him a large range advantage, and despite Robert's bestial strength, Dayne is one of he most well regarded knights in the realm.

But even if he could have taken down 1 on 1, remember Robert was so wounded by Rhaegar after the Trident that he couldn't go on to King's Landing himself and sent Ned. If he had to deal with the Sword of the Morning before the the Prince of Dragonstone, he almost certainly would be further wounded, perhaps to the extent that he wouldn't have survived.

Note that Selmy was, from all accounts not given a commander's position; he wa probably protecting rhaegr. And he nearly perished from his wounds.

I thought Selmy and Darry were sent to gather the remnants of Jon Connington's troops; that seems to imply some sort of command position, whereas I can't remember a single quote noting he was protecting Rhaegar at the time.

Had Dyne sought out Robert Dynes fate would have been similar. Though IMO robert would have tried NOT to kill Dyne, only take him out for the fight and then later pardon him.

I don't think Robert encountered Barristan Selmy trying to get to Rhaegar, wounded him only enough to incapacitate him, then moved on. First, as I said above, I don't think Selmy faced Robert (could be wrong though, do we have a quote either way?). I think Selmy was chopping up everyone he encountered, and eventualy the aggregate of those wounds just got to him, and Robert dealt with him after the battle. You can't fight by trying not to kill your opponent while he tries to kill you. Especially if that opponent is someone as good as Dayne or Selmy.

Another thing i am curious about: Wasn't Rhaegar weilding a valyrian steel blade? (aka Blackfyre, or some other?) If not that would be pretty stupid.

I don't think we know what the state of Blackfyre is in recent Westerosi history; some think its been lost. In any event, I think if he was using it, we would have heard. We had description of Robert's warhammer, and I think if Rhaegar was using so notable a weapon it would have been mentioned.

[Ran]

Indeed, there's no particular evidence that Barristan was in any close proximity to Rhaegar at the time of the Trident, and Barristan's injuries did not come from Robert (he was wounded by "arrow, spear, and sword", suggestive of the similar variety of wounds Ser Loras took in the course of the storming of Dragonstone, i.e. from different opponents in the course of the melee).

As to Valyrian steel, House Targaryen had long lost its last Valyrian steel sword by the time of the Trident, according to GRRM. Rhaegar fought with regular steel.

[Andhaira]

Indeed, there's no particular evidence that Barristan was in any close proximity to Rhaegar at the time of the Trident, and Barristan's injuries did not come from Robert (he was wounded by "arrow, spear, and sword", suggestive of the similar variety of wounds Ser Loras took in the course of the storming of Dragonstone, i.e. from different opponents in the course of the melee).

As to Valyrian steel, House Targaryen had long lost its last Valyrian steel sword by the time of the Trident, according to GRRM. Rhaegar fought with regular steel.

Ok assuming the Targs have lost both Blackfyre and Darksister, couldn't they get another VS blade from somewhere? Yes I know they are rare and Tywin himself had huge issues with finding one (so he eventually melted down ice) but I think its funny that the Targaryens are of Valyrian descent, and Dragonstone used to be a trading hub from where merchants brought the valyrian Blades that are in the 7 kingdoms 'today' And yet the Targ's find themseves without a VS blade of their own?

At the very least why not try to melt down the many VS daggers in the armory and make a blade out of that? Someone in AGoT mentions that the armory has many many Valyrian Steel daggers that n one uses. Robert prefers warhammers so he doesn't bother with VS blades.

[Guest Other-in-law]

At the very least why not try to melt down the many VS daggers in the armory and make a blade out of that?

Because pattern-welded steel (what VS is modeled after) is not a homogeneous substance, it's different types of steel mixed through the forging process...thus the patterns. Melting it down would make it homogeneous, and turn it into something less. And yes, I realise that one of the characters used the term "melting down", but that was a layman, not a smith or metallurgist. Tobho Mott would not have actually melted Ice down at all; he merely cut and reshaped it. And cutting a sword in twain is rather easier than making a new sword out of several daggers. I really doubt it's even possible, or that it would be as strong as the real thing if it was.

Someone in AGoT mentions that the armory has many many Valyrian Steel daggers that n one uses.

I don't recall more than one being mentioned.