MLB Thread

[Crow's Eye]

[quote name='Andrik the Unsmiling' post='1464806' date='Aug 1 2008, 00.53']I'll take Sheets' bigger sample size for the year and better chance of staying healthy, thanks.[/quote]

Sheets doesn't exactly have an injury-free history. Harden may not have as many innings under his belt this year, but when he's been on the mound, he's been utterly dominant. If he gets hurt, he gets hurt, but right now there's no way I take Sheets over Harden. Hell, I wouldn't take Sheets over Z or Dempster either.

But then again, I'm slightly biased...

[Jaxom 1974]

[quote name='Crow's Eye' post='1464950' date='Aug 1 2008, 06.33']Sheets doesn't exactly have an injury-free history. Harden may not have as many innings under his belt this year, but when he's been on the mound, he's been utterly dominant. If he gets hurt, he gets hurt, but right now there's no way I take Sheets over Harden. Hell, I wouldn't take Sheets over Z or Dempster either.

But then again, I'm slightly biased...[/quote]

That was pretty much my point. As far as dominace goes, it could go either way when they're healthy. Frankly it's a race to see which would be the first to the DL if you ask me.

[Andrik the Unsmiling]

[quote name='Crow's Eye' post='1464950' date='Aug 1 2008, 04.33']Sheets doesn't exactly have an injury-free history. Harden may not have as many innings under his belt this year, but when he's been on the mound, he's been utterly dominant. If he gets hurt, he gets hurt, but right now there's no way I take Sheets over Harden. Hell, I wouldn't take Sheets over Z or Dempster either.

But then again, I'm slightly biased...[/quote]

Compared to Harden, Sheets is Lou Gehrig. Sheets has never once failed to go at least 100 IP in in any year of his eight season ML career. And he's had 3 seasons in which he's pitched well over 200 innings.

Harden has never pitched over 200 innings in a season. Counting this season, he's had just three years in which he's made it to 100 IP. In the 06-07 campaigns he TOTALED just over 70 innings of work.

Sheets and Harden? Both injury prone guys. Both very good when they are pitching. Harden probably even a bit better than Sheets. But in terms of which of them has been more reliable over the course of his career, it's Sheets, hands down.

[Mexal]

[quote name='Dindale!' post='1464897' date='Aug 1 2008, 05.14']If the Dodgers are smart, they'll play Kemp, Ethier and Manny, and just have the most overpaid Bench in the history of man.[/quote]

They're not smart. I'd be very surprised if Ethier cracks the starting lineup once a week. For some stupid reason, Torre thinks that Pierre is the best player on the team and Jones isn't that far behind him. It frustrates me to no end.

[Jaime L]

[quote name='Mexal' post='1465624' date='Aug 1 2008, 15.26']They're not smart. I'd be very surprised if Ethier cracks the starting lineup once a week. For some stupid reason, Torre thinks that Pierre is the best player on the team and Jones isn't that far behind him. It frustrates me to no end.[/quote]

Pierre must have incriminating photos of Torre and I love him for it.

[TheBigTEA]

I am just depressed after the crap-tastic display by the Brewers vs. the Cubs. Granted the Cubs played really well (wow to the pitching staff...I had no idea) but the Brewers were clearly overwhelmed by the atmosphere....all those young guys just seemed in over their heads.

Hopefully the next series they can turn it around against the Cubs and I feel bad for the Braves tonight....

[Myshkin]

ManRam!!!!

[Caliban]

Marquis never gets hurt does that make him better then Harden too Andrik? Fact is Harden's 5 starts ive seen in cub blue have been as good a 5 start run ive ever seen by sumbody not named Mark Prior. People cant get the ball in play against this guy. Hes an animal. Ive seen Sheets throw many times. Hes very good but not great. Both pitchers are healthy right now and nd only have 7 weeks of baseball left. For the sake of a true comparisoon, Harden is obviously the guy all of us would want on the mound. The only thing id look for is for Rich to get some more efficient outs. Im not asking him to become roy halladay but carlos zambrano type efficiency would squeeze another few innings out of him coming down the stretch.

I also am in full support of throwing Harden's shoulder off his body come this fall. Let him throw 150 pitches. I dont give a shit. The kid is nasty but at this point I want a fucking championship.

Dont dismiss defense. You cant hide the kind of abysmal d that the brewers play over 162 games. Itds gonna creep out and cost them runs.

The Cubs are awesome in every way.

Bronn, Peavy isnt that good. Already at this point I take Lincecum over Peavy on the strength of Lincecum's ability on the road. You take Jake out of Petco and hes just another 2 starter, hes no ace and no cy young outside of tat park.

I cant tell you people how incredibly annoying this Griffey thing has been. Youd think this actuaqlly means anything. Hes a marginal upgrade. Thats it. They didnt give up value so i cant slam the trade but i will slam that douche Kenny Williams for this. Kenny is the most annoying, self-righteous assclown in front office sports. Kenny is a jackass, how can one root for that guy.

[Bronn Stone]

[quote name='Caliban' post='1466994' date='Aug 3 2008, 12.48']Bronn, Peavy isnt that good. Already at this point I take Lincecum over Peavy on the strength of Lincecum's ability on the road. You take Jake out of Petco and hes just another 2 starter, hes no ace and no cy young outside of tat park.[/quote]

Peavy has definitely played poorly on the road this season.. But his Cy Young season (last year), his road/home stats were virtually identical (He was 10-1 on the road with an ERA of 2.57, WHIP of 1.07 and BAA of .195). He's been around the league long enough to where it is easy to forget he's still young (27 to Lincecum's 24).

He really is that good. Go on believing otherwise. It would be far from the dumbest thing I've read here.

[Caliban]

[quote name='Bronn Stone' post='1467008' date='Aug 3 2008, 15.05']He really is that good. Go on believing otherwise. It would be far from the dumbest thing I've read here.[/quote]

His career away era is 3.75 a full run higher then at home. Acting like Petco isnt heavily factored into Peavy's production would be the dumb thing. Peavy is not better then Lincecum. Lincecum is better then Peavy.

[Mexal]

[quote name='Caliban' post='1467012' date='Aug 3 2008, 16.11']His career away era is 3.75 a full run higher then at home. Acting like Petco isnt heavily factored into Peavy's production would be the dumb thing. Peavy is not better then Lincecum. Lincecum is better then Peavy.[/quote]

San Fransisco is a pitches park as well. It's not like Petco but it's definitely above average.

Peavy is that good. We've seen an off year from Peavy and he still has a 2.5 era. Hell, if you look at his last 5 seasons, 4 of them had under a 3 ERA and averaged over a strikeout an inning. His home/away ERA is similar in every season except this one and 2006 (his one "poor" year before this one). In 07, 05 and 04, they were the similar. Even his K/BB is sick at 3.5 in his worst year. And as Bronn said, he's only 27.

The guy is a stud whether he plays in Petco or not. We don't have enough information Lincecum to say if he's better than Peavy or not.

[Bronn Stone]

[quote name='Caliban' post='1467012' date='Aug 3 2008, 13.11']His career away era is 3.75 a full run higher then at home. Acting like Petco isnt heavily factored into Peavy's production would be the dumb thing. Peavy is not better then Lincecum. Lincecum is better then Peavy.[/quote]

Lincecum plays in what is nearly as pitcher-friendly a ballpark as Peavy and has worse stats. Peavy also has nearly 200 career starts to less than 50 for Lincecum. Lincecum is good, but he's not at Peavy's level yet.

You haven't yet acknowledged you were dead wrong about Petco being the reason for his Cy Young. He won the award because he pitched really well last season, home and away. But that is par for the course from you. Lincecum is a great talent, but I'm not yet ready to proclaim that his 150th start is going to be as strong as his current performance.

Petco is a factor in his stats this year. But I'd say moreso is the fact that he pitched with a strained elbow in May and got knocked around - a time that mostly coincided with road games. If he comes back next season 100% healthy (and there is no reason to believe otherwise), he's as likely as not to be back to Cy Young form.

Peavy does have an interesting career pattern. In 2003, 2006 and 2008 he's been much better at home than on the road. In 2004, 2005 and 2007, the numbers were nearly identical. Which is the true Peavy? Hard to say. Can't make similar conclusions about Lincecum either, because the record is so short.

[Myshkin]

Peavy isn't that good?!? If he were in the NL Central you'd be singing a different tune. If he were a Cub you'd be calling him the best pitcher in baseball.

[Caliban]

Just to compare Peavy at home to Peavy on the road careerwise:

HR/PA

home - 1.72%
away - 3.27%

Ops against

home - .615
away - .737

SLG against

home - .335
away - .422

ERA

home - 2.79
awap - 3.76

Very unremarkable road pitcher and the above is all taken from a very large sample size of both home and road starts. Fact is that Jake Peavy is not an elite pitcher outside of Petco.

Away ERA
2002 - 6.23
2003 - 4.59
2004 - 2.33
2005 - 2.98
2006 - 4.57
2007 - 2.57
2008 - 4.10

Lincecum
22 home starts, 24 away starts
home era- 3.86 away era - 2.88
home ops - .703 away ops - .617

And he has 3 career starts in Petco and threw 20 innings for 4 ER.

Im not saying Peavy isnt a good pitcher. He is not an elite one when not throwing at Petco. Pure and simple. His splits show a massive discrepency between home and away. If there was a game tonight and i could either throw lincecum or peavy, id throw lincecum.

[Mexal]

So a guy that has 3 seasons worthy of the Cy Young in 6 full seasons in the league is relegated to a #2 pitcher? If you want to compare Lincecum to Peavy, wait another 3 years.

[Lord O' Bones]

You guys are both right. If I was managing a club with these two pitchers [i]right now[/i] I would start Lincecum over Peavy. But saying that Tim is a better pitcher than Jake is impossible at this point.

[Mexal]

[quote name='Lord O' Bones' post='1467175' date='Aug 3 2008, 21.10']You guys are both right. If I was managing a club with these two pitchers [i]right now[/i] I would start Lincecum over Peavy. But saying that Tim is a better pitcher than Jake is impossible at this point.[/quote]

I wouldn't.

[Caliban]

[quote name='Mexal' post='1467171' date='Aug 3 2008, 20.05']So a guy that has 3 seasons worthy of the Cy Young in 6 full seasons in the league is relegated to a #2 pitcher? If you want to compare Lincecum to Peavy, wait another 3 years.[/quote]

Carlos Zambrano (also 27) away Era
2002 - 2.98
2003 - 3.22
2004 - 3.13
2005 - 3.78
2006 - 2.97
2007 - 3.06
2008 - 3.38

career ave 3.26
away ops .670

Peavy
2002 - 6.23
2003 - 4.59
2004 - 2.33
2005 - 2.98
2006 - 4.57
2007 - 2.57
2008 - 4.10

career ave 3.76
away ops .737

Zambrano while a legit 1 starter has never sniffed a cy. Peavy having a really good road era 4 years ago and a 3.0 3 years ago does not qualify him for another 2 awards. Yes he won one last year and it appears deserving despite pitching 125 of his 220 innings at petco. This makes him a cy young caliber pitcher for exactly 15 road starts last year. Its not impossible for a not great pitcher to win a cy young (zito and colon come to mind).

I will say that Peavy is probably a number 1 caliber starter, and not merely a number 2 but i would really have to look at every team and see where he fits into their rotation. What he isnt is (as Bronn used, and evidence of his overratedness) one of the first names mentioned in pitching. Hes not an elite MLB starter. Never said he wasnt good. Hes just not among the best, and Id throw Lincecum in a heartbeat given the option.

[Mexal]

[quote name='Caliban' post='1467186' date='Aug 3 2008, 21.34']Carlos Zambrano (also 27) away Era
2002 - 2.98
2003 - 3.22
2004 - 3.13
2005 - 3.78
2006 - 2.97
2007 - 3.06
2008 - 3.38

career ave 3.26
away ops .670

Peavy
2002 - 6.23
2003 - 4.59
2004 - 2.33
2005 - 2.98
2006 - 4.57
2007 - 2.57
2008 - 4.10

career ave 3.76
away ops .737

Zambrano while a legit 1 starter has never sniffed a cy. Peavy having a really good road era 4 years ago and a 3.0 3 years ago does not qualify him for another 2 awards. Yes he won one last year and it appears deserving despite pitching 125 of his 220 innings at petco. This makes him a cy young caliber pitcher for exactly 15 road starts last year. Its not impossible for a not great pitcher to win a cy young (zito and colon come to mind).

I will say that Peavy is probably a number 1 caliber starter, and not merely a number 2 but i would really have to look at every team and see where he fits into their rotation. What he isnt is (as Bronn used, and evidence of his overratedness) one of the first names mentioned in pitching. Hes not an elite MLB starter. Never said he wasnt good. Hes just not among the best, and Id throw Lincecum in a heartbeat given the option.[/quote]


This is what annoys me. Zambrano's away ERA this year is a full point higher than his home ERA yet you don't say anything. That's because he plays in Wrigley field, not Petco park. Lincecum's home ERA is 1.5 pts higher than his away ERA and he plays in a pitcher's park that is nearly as good as Petco.

My point is, so what? Who cares if Peavy's first year in the league, he had poor away stats and if this year, while playing through a strained elbow which landed him on the DL for 5 weeks, he pitched poorly? Who cares if in '06, he pitched poorly on the road in an otherwise ok year? You ignore last year. You ignore '05 and you ignore '04. Those years, his away stats were better than your legit #1 starter in Zambrano. While Zambrano's away stats overall might be more consistent, it still ignores the fantastic years Peavy has had in which your little comparison just makes no sense. You talk like 3 out of his 6 full seasons were aberrations and that this season is null and void cause he's pitching worse on the road than at home (again, a lot of it was due to his injury). It doesn't matter that his K/9 is over 9. It doesn't matter that his WHIP is 1.12. It doesn't matter that his K/BB is 3.75. It just matters that he's pitched poorly on the road.

Now, his home stats are better and you say that's all Petco park. The problem is, you ignore the other stats.

Peavy in 7 seasons: 9.02 K9, 2.85 BB/9, .92 HR/9 and 1.18 WHIP

Zambrano in 8 seasons: 7.66 K9, 4.02 BB/9, .73 HR/9 and 1.28 WHIP

I just don't see your point. Your entire analysis is based on away statistics and that to me, just looks like cherry picking what you think will make your point.

[Caliban]

[quote name='Mexal' post='1467193' date='Aug 3 2008, 20.52']Peavy in 7 seasons: 9.02 K9, 2.85 BB/9, .92 HR/9 and 1.18 WHIP

Zambrano in 8 seasons: 7.66 K9, 4.02 BB/9, .73 HR/9 and 1.28 WHIP

I just don't see your point. Your entire analysis is based on away statistics and that to me, just looks like cherry picking what you think will make your point.[/quote]

Because Zambrano's away number this year is a small sample size and therefore not worth mention. The same reason why Cliff Lee is not the best pitcher in baseball. What is significant is Peavy entire road career which has been unremarkable. Do you think that you will find many elite MLB pitchers with a 3.8 career road era?

Im not denying that Peavy has impressive whip numbers and strikout totals. However, his home run statistics are massively skewed as i said upthread, a Peavy plate appearence is twice as likely to result in a home run on the road then at home. I pulled in the fact opponents ops 120 points higher on the road, how they slug an extra 100 points.