The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon thread, Part VIII

[Blue Steel]

No, if the Wall comes down it is only the start of a new phase of the Night's Watch's responsibility. They are guardians of the realms of men, not just guardians of the Wall. Jon, as Lord Commander, has his work cut out for him to unite all the contending forces of Westerosi against the Others.

Without the wall, I don't see them having a tangible purpose anymore. Also, they definitely won't get anymore criminals and other unwanted people if there isn't a place to contain them.

[Guest Other-in-Law]

If -

Horn of Winter (or whatever its called) is real

Wall comes down

End of Nights Watch

Without the wall, I don't see them having a tangible purpose anymore. Also, they definitely won't get anymore criminals and other unwanted people if there isn't a place to contain them.

:stillsick: No matter how many times these arguments get obliterated, they just keep coming back from the grave.

The last time the Others invaded there was no Wall. Humanity's near brush with extinction motivated them to promptly found the NW to forever keep watch against the terrible threat returning, and to start building a Wall to stop them. The Wall is not a prerequisite for the NW to exist; rather the absence of the Wall makes the NW's continuing existence more needed than ever (to rebuild and man the Wall after it's all done, if nothing else). Nor does the Wall "contain" criminal conscripts in the slightest. It doesn't do anything to stop them from deserting, the fact that they'll be hunted down and killed is all that does that.

[Blue Steel]

:stillsick: No matter how many times these arguments get obliterated, they just keep coming back from the grave.

The last time the Others invaded there was no Wall. Humanity's near brush with extinction motivated them to promptly found the NW to forever keep watch against the terrible threat returning, and to start building a Wall to stop them. The Wall is not a prerequisite for the NW to exist; rather the absence of the Wall makes the NW's continuing existence more needed than ever (to rebuild and man the Wall after it's all done, if nothing else). Nor does the Wall "contain" criminal conscripts in the slightest. It doesn't do anything to stop them from deserting, the fact that they'll be hunted down and killed is all that does that.

And the last time there was an invasion by the Others, there wasn't a NW either. So I don't see how that can be an argument.

Without the Wall, the purpose of the NW isn't tangible. There's nothing to guard. Nothing to patrol. IF the wall fell, do you really think that 100 years from that date there would still be a NW? They would forget about the Others just as the current NW had except this time there wouldn't be a wall to guard or Wildings to keep out.

No wall and the NW will die.

[SFDanny]

The Lords of the North have thousands of men. If Jon rocks up with 200 and tries to take control they'll probably tell him to piss off.

Money, Men and Power will drive the armies of the north. Jon has none.

Jon Stark however :) Depends on Robbs letter I suppose

If Jon claims leadership of the men of of the north by claiming to be Robb's successor as King in the North he will lose half of the North, Stannis, and all of the south. If he claims the throne as Rhaegar's son, assuming that is the case, he declares war on all the others who want the throne and invites the Others to destroy them all one by one. If, on the other hand, he claims leadership of the fight against the Others as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch and nothing more, he has small chance of uniting many of the forces now at each other's throats against the real enemy. He has a choice to make, but it really isn't much of a choice - rather the recognition of necessity.

[SFDanny]

And the last time there was an invasion by the Others, there wasn't a NW either. So I don't see how that can be an argument.

Without the Wall, the purpose of the NW isn't tangible. There's nothing to guard. Nothing to patrol. IF the wall fell, do you really think that 100 years from that date there would still be a NW? They would forget about the Others just as the current NW had except this time there wouldn't be a wall to guard or Wildings to keep out.

No wall and the NW will die.

Nonsense. Read the vow again. They guard the realms of men. The Wall is but a part of their duty. Jon is the Lord Commander of a force of men that was organized to unite hundreds of different kingdoms against the threat of the Others. A force that takes no part in the petty struggles of humanity in order to fight for humanity. Now that Westeros has dissolved again into many vying political forces it is precisely the Night's Watch that has to be the central unifying body against the Others. Even Dany and her dragons can't do it by themselves. That's my take on it anyway, and for all those who think Jon is going to walk away from the Night's Watch and be the next King of Westeros all I can say is I think we are reading a different story.

[Guest Other-in-Law]

And the last time there was an invasion by the Others, there wasn't a NW either. So I don't see how that can be an argument.

Then you're not looking. The Others were what motivated the realms of men to create the NW. Returning Others will only reinforce the feel that the realm needs a NW.

Look at it this way: someone's house catches on fire. They manage to put the fire out, with a terrible loss of property. Consequently, they decide to install fire alarms. But then, after a long time, the batteries of the fire alarms get weaker and they barely avoid burning up in their bed when their house catches fire again, being saved only because one of the alarms managed a feeble beeping that woke them up.

After all that, do you think they're going to decide that fire alarms are pointless, and chuck them out? Only if they're idiots. The sensible thing is reinstall new fire alarms, and this time religiously check the batteries to make sure they're in good working order.

Without the Wall, the purpose of the NW isn't tangible.

Was it tangible when it was founded, back when there was no Wall?

There's nothing to guard.

Realms of Men.

Nothing to patrol.

the Northern expanses of Westeros, keeping a vigilant eye out for any sign that the Others are returning.

IF the wall fell, do you really think that 100 years from that date there would still be a NW?

Of course. Do you think someone who's house burned down wouldn't buy fire alarms after they rebuilt? I have no doubt that 100 years after the second Long Night, the NW would be the strongest it's been in several centuries, flushed with new recruits for the most glorious and noble calling there is. They'd have men coming out their ears.

They would forget about the Others just as the current NW had except this time there wouldn't be a wall to guard or Wildings to keep out.

You think the human race nearly going extinct would be forgotten in a paltry century??? Last time it happened they took measures that still endure 8,000 years later.

No wall and the NW will die.

:bs:

[MattTaz]

If Jon claims leadership of the men of of the north by claiming to be Robb's successor as King in the North he will lose half of the North, Stannis, and all of the south. If he claims the throne as Rhaegar's son, assuming that is the case, he declares war on all the others who want the throne and invites the Others to destroy them all one by one. If, on the other hand, he claims leadership of the fight against the Others as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch and nothing more, he has small chance of uniting many of the forces now at each other's throats against the real enemy. He has a choice to make, but it really isn't much of a choice - rather the recognition of necessity.

I'm not sure whether I can mention this in this section. but from adwd spoiler chapters. The South will be too busy to notice or do anything about it for a while. And Stannis is headed for a reckoning with another character, and well I can say this - Has anyone noticed that what started out as a clenched jaw, has become a clenched jaw, neck and right arm. Donal Noye said he would break not bend, I think Stannis will either have a heart attack or stroke before this is out. The King in the North or a Targ bastard in Book 6 would have a significantly greater chance of uniting the North than a retreating force of 200 NW. I guess we'll agree to disagree :)

[jack-be-lucky]

If Jon claims leadership of the men of of the north by claiming to be Robb's successor as King in the North he will lose half of the North, Stannis, and all of the south. If he claims the throne as Rhaegar's son, assuming that is the case, he declares war on all the others who want the throne and invites the Others to destroy them all one by one. If, on the other hand, he claims leadership of the fight against the Others as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch and nothing more, he has small chance of uniting many of the forces now at each other's throats against the real enemy. He has a choice to make, but it really isn't much of a choice - rather the recognition of necessity.

If I were to predict how this will all play out, I would guess that the other's and their wights will easily rampage across the North. Jon will wind up in the swamps of Greywater, where he will slowly rebuild his forces. A take-off from Alfred the Great. With the help of the knowledge of the COTF, he will then begin a counter-attack. Now maybe, after he's saved westeros, he could wind up being offered a throne of either the North, or the seven kingdoms itself, but I tend to think not. I lean more towards him being responsible for bringing the Wildings back into the area of the Gift and the New Gift. A new major House, the house of Snow.

[Errant Bard]

I'm not sure whether I can mention this in this section. but from adwd spoiler chapters.

Spoiler tags. Use them. No, seriously, they are here for a purpose. and not even hard to write:

[spoiler][/spoiler]

Don't forget to say what the spoiler are for, too, there's nothing worse than a spoiler box which you have to click to know what's actually supposedly spoiling (yes, not everything is adwd)

And when you're not sure, don't. Would you, during a presentation at work, in front of hundreds of people, say anything like "I'm not sure whether I can mention this in your presence, but <blab stuff half the audience doesn't want to know>"?

[CFdS]

The Nightwatch wouldn't be needed anymore when the Others are exterminated. I don't know if this is possible but I guess grrm send Bran into the wilds for more than some meditation classes.

On the other hand: If the threat of the Others would become widely known and Westeros decides to unite behind the Lord Commander (very unlikely, I know. But if Jon is reveiled to be a Targ..), wouldn't that make the Lord Commander de facto king?

[History of Westeros]

And the last time there was an invasion by the Others, there wasn't a NW either. So I don't see how that can be an argument.

Without the Wall, the purpose of the NW isn't tangible. There's nothing to guard. Nothing to patrol. IF the wall fell, do you really think that 100 years from that date there would still be a NW? They would forget about the Others just as the current NW had except this time there wouldn't be a wall to guard or Wildings to keep out.

No wall and the NW will die.

Ridiculous. The Rangers patrol far north of the Wall constantly, so you can't say "nothing to patrol". The NW *might* disband, but clearly they would still have a purpose, it would just be a hell of a lot harder.

[Cendres]

Greetings,

I will not argue about the R+L=J theory but rather about Jon as the Lord Commandant of the Nightwatch. Something that bother me since he takes that position is that he is the 998 LCotNW and I find no meaning behind that number, although many numbers have meaning in ASoIaF (or I think so): 7 Kingdoms, 7 Kingsguard, 3x3 prophecies for Dany, the 13 LCotNW is the Night King, etc. I find it odd.

Pardon me if it has already been discuted somewhere else or if it is out of topic.

I also don't think that the Nigthwatch will disband if the Wall crumbles, they will just start building it again, especially if magic comes back to the world (it will be easier and the Wall stronger) - maybe another Brandon the Builder is reborn (like Azor Ahai).

[Mandurang]

I also don't think that the Nigthwatch will disband if the Wall crumbles, they will just start building it again, especially if magic comes back to the world (it will be easier and the Wall stronger) - maybe another Brandon the Builder is reborn (like Azor Ahai).

maybe another Brandon the Builder is reborn

another Brandon

Brandon

Bran

I see what you did there. :smoking:

[fragment]

Nonsense. Read the vow again. They guard the realms of men. The Wall is but a part of their duty. Jon is the Lord Commander of a force of men that was organized to unite hundreds of different kingdoms against the threat of the Others. A force that takes no part in the petty struggles of humanity in order to fight for humanity. Now that Westeros has dissolved again into many vying political forces it is precisely the Night's Watch that has to be the central unifying body against the Others. Even Dany and her dragons can't do it by themselves. That's my take on it anyway, and for all those who think Jon is going to walk away from the Night's Watch and be the next King of Westeros all I can say is I think we are reading a different story.

Finally, someone I see to eye-to-eye with. I doubt that Jon will end up on the Iron Throne, much less see the Iron Throne. Jon as the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch has a responsibility to attend to, the Others. That is a far more significant threat than any other Kingdom can pose to Jon at the moment. That is where GRRM will focus Jon's narrative, not him being Rhaegar's son or much less a Dayne. Jon is too much like Eddard to forsake responsibility for personal glory.

[Cendres]

Mandurang you find me... Yes I think that Bran will become important: he will surely become a magician, but not in the new traditions like the valyrian one, the red priest one, etc. but he will be trained in the ancient ways of the Children. And he can not fight save in a wolf hide so his role must be different.

I had an idea, I don't think it will happen but for me the only way for the NW to become useless is that the Children and Bran perform the same huge spell the Children did once, when they shattered the Arm of Dorne. With the condition that the Others don't swim.

[KyleLitke]

Maybe a little late, but one problem I have with the whole "Jon would be the rightful heir!" is the only way for it to come to pass would be pretty unbelieveable to me.

Look at it this way. First, he'd have to be legitimate (let's ignore the whole "making him legitimate" thing for a second, a King/Queen has to do it...Robb's followers who know might view him as legitimate, but they alone don't mean much, and no one else except MAYBE Dany would want him to become legitimate, and for Dany to do it it would essentially mean she's no longer really the Queen). Which means Rhaegar and Lyanna would have had to get secretly married, presumably with only dead kingsguard members and maybe one maester who has kept silent for a long time. Nobody even thinks there's a possibility they were married, so it's clearly not public knowledge.

So let's say that's the case, and a secret maester who is totally trustworthy suddenly comes forward and says they were married. How would this maester know that Jon is Lyanna and Rhaegar's kid? Howland Reed might (and if it's true, probably does) know, but is the word of Howland Reed and nobody else really enough to convince the entire Seven Kingdoms that Jon is the King? Doubt it. It just doesn't make sense to me. I do think he's Lyanna and Rhaegar's kid, and while I still think he's a bastard, I'll accept that in theory maybe he's legitimate, but there's still no real way to prove it to the degree that would convince everyone to believe he's actually the King.

[Blue Steel]

Ridiculous. The Rangers patrol far north of the Wall constantly, so you can't say "nothing to patrol". The NW *might* disband, but clearly they would still have a purpose, it would just be a hell of a lot harder.

How is that ridiculous? No wall = no Wildings to keep out. The patrols are to keep the Wildings in line. There's nothing ridiculous about sending out patrols when you are guarding a wall. I'm pretty sure the NW didn't exist until after the Wall was built if you base it on the Lord Commanders. The only reason the NW even exists in the present is because there were Wildings to guard against. No one belived in the Others. Heck, before they showed up, the only thing you heard about were tories of "grumpkins and snarks" whatever those were.

[History of Westeros]

How is that ridiculous? No wall = no Wildings to keep out. The patrols are to keep the Wildings in line. There's nothing ridiculous about sending out patrols when you are guarding a wall. I'm pretty sure the NW didn't exist until after the Wall was built if you base it on the Lord Commanders. The only reason the NW even exists in the present is because there were Wildings to guard against. No one belived in the Others. Heck, before they showed up, the only thing you heard about were tories of "grumpkins and snarks" whatever those were.

First, people eventually stopped believing in the Others, but this was after The Wall was built, not before. *Night*'s watch is the key here. The Long Night inspired the Night's Watch as far as we know. Their job, over time, became stopping the Wildlings, Giants, etc. because The Others hadn't been seen in so very long.

It's ridiculous because removing the Wall doesn't remove the threat, so they would still have to protect the borders... it would just be a hell of a lot harder. In the US there are border patrols, yet few walls. Similar to just about every country that's ever existed.

[jurble]

Reread GoT for the 3rd time, and it seems really obvious to me that GRRM intended for R+L=J, the amount of foreshadowing is immense compared to other foreshadowed guff. But at that time GRRM also intended for a 3 book trilogy and a 5 year time-skip. Who knows what changes he's made to the story since then (not because of fans realing r+l=j, but in terms of making the story just better). The fact that Ashara Dayne was put forward as a possible mother for Jon really clinches it in my mind. Ashara's coloring would have explained Jon's appearance if he turned out looking like a Targ.

The problem with that is though, it implies massive conspiracy. Howland Reed, and Ned, I get, but I don't see why Ashara would join the conspiracy, unless Ashara's "death" was real, and Howland and Ned used that to their advantage in forming their story. But, neither Howland or Ned seem like the rumor spreading type. Someone has to have spread the names Wylla and Ashara around to explain Jon. But who? There has to be someone good with rumors.

And I don't think either Littlefinger or Varys were in on it.

[corbon]

The problem with that is though, it implies massive conspiracy. Howland Reed, and Ned, I get, but I don't see why Ashara would join the conspiracy, unless Ashara's "death" was real, and Howland and Ned used that to their advantage in forming their story. But, neither Howland or Ned seem like the rumor spreading type. Someone has to have spread the names Wylla and Ashara around to explain Jon. But who? There has to be someone good with rumors.

Err, Ned and Howland turn up with a brand new baby at the Dayne castle (returning the sword remember), probably in secret, right after ToJ. Ned needs it to be his baby, not Lyanna's, so Robert won't kill it outright.

Local gossip says it is either Ashara's, since she and Ned were known to have the hots for each other, or Wylla, since Wylla gets chosen as wet-nurse. Both probably had 'opportunity' for conception months back and necessarily have to be in on the deception, so aren't going to spill the beans. Ashara dying (for what ever reason, whether real or not) just makes the gossip juicier.

Local gossip spreads as such juicy gossip does. Thus the young Dayne squire is quite certain when he tells Arya that Willa is Ned's mother - that's what he has heard all his life, and besides, both he and Jon (several years apart) nursed at Wylla's breast (milk brothers).

There is nothing strange in all this, no massive conspiracy. Howland Reed and Ned don't have to say anything at all, nor does Wylla or Ashara.

Just Ned turning up at Ashara's place and later leaving with a baby, nursed by Wylla, at the same time, is plenty enough, especially if Ashara (or Wylla) hasn't been 'out and about' locally much recently.

No one has to deliberately spread rumours, just normal gossip will do the job well enough (and be totally wrong, as gossip often is). The common folk probably think Ashara is the mother, and those who know she hasn't been pregnant probably think Wylla is the mother. Likely only a very, very few are in the know - Ned, Howland, Ashara and Wylla and maybe one or two other close family members (if there are any) are all that is strictly necessary if Ned can arrive fairly quietly.