College Football Again

[lokisnow]

Yeah, what scares me is a one-loss 'Bama team getting in over an undefeated BSU team.

that's not a scary possibility, that's a dead certainty.

I don't think there's any realistic scenario left in which Boise gets to the title game. for them to make it you need:

a two loss SEC champ

a one loss Big 10 champ that is not Ohio State, so you probably need Michigan State and Ohio State to lose ( a one loss big 10 team is taken by the rose bowl and ranked lower than other conference champs)

Baylor to win the Big 12 South and a team not Nebraska or Oklahoma to win the Big 12

Oregon to lose to USC and probably another team.

Hawaii and Nevada to win enough in upcoming weeks that they're ranked when Boise plays them (and ranked teams to lose enough to open a hole in the rankings for them.

If all those upsets occur it's possible Boise will be given a shot, but the system is designed to give them a BCS bowl shot but to never give them a plausible path to the National Title.

Additionally, all the coaches/sports information director polls will close ranks against Boise and vote them down the rankings, because they have a lot of interest and incentives in keeping the money in the family of six.

[lokisnow]

the ap national champ is, the BCS/coaches/sports information directors champ (crystal football) is contractually obligated to be awarded to only the winner of the NC game. but if an undefeated big 6 team wins the NC game there is no way the AP will have the spine to vote Boise number one over the undefeated NC game participant. even if the undefeated team is upset in the NC, they'll still vote Boise second, like they did to Utah a few years ago.

[BLU-RAY]

that's not a scary possibility, that's a dead certainty.

Yeah, I'm aware. As for the rest of your post; while it'd be nice to get Boise in the NCG, I don't really care about that; I just don't want them in the Rose Bowl, I want Stanford to get that spot, and I'll root for whatever asinine sequence of events is necessary to have that happen.

[Arakasi]

Pretty sure if Boise is number one in the AP poll going into the bowl game and win decisively against a top 10 team that they will be voted by the AP as champion. The AP is not beholden to the BCS and won't care about voting against them. All they need to do is beat their opponent more decisively then the BCS 1/2 beats there, which won't be difficult.

[Arakasi]

the ap national champ is, the BCS/coaches/sports information directors champ (crystal football) is contractually obligated to be awarded to only the winner of the NC game. but if an undefeated big 6 team wins the NC game there is no way the AP will have the spine to vote Boise number one over the undefeated NC game participant. even if the undefeated team is upset in the NC, they'll still vote Boise second, like they did to Utah a few years ago.

Utah wasn't first in the polls going into the game, so this comparison holds no water. If boise is number 1 in the AP going in to their bowl game and win decisively, they will win the AP national title. No ifs, ands or buts.

[lokisnow]

BCS prediction:

1. Auburn

2. Oregon

3. Missouri

4. Boise State

5. Michigan State

6. TCU

7. Utah

8. Alabama

9. Ohio State

10. Oklahoma

[Andriy Czarchenko]

I think you have Missouri too high as they are just 8th in both polls.

1. Auburn

2. Oregon

3. Boise State

4. Michigan State

5. TCU

6. Missouri

7. Alabama

8. Wisconsin

9. Utah

10. Oklahoma/Ohio State

[Andriy Czarchenko]

Damn, MSU and TCU in wrong order and Wisconsin 2 spots too high. <_<

[Ken Stone]

I guess we have to entertain the possibility that Missouri could run the table. Their biggest test is next week @ Nebraska, so Michigan State and Missouri really have something to prove this coming weekend. I would bet on Nebraska in that game though. And I think this week is Oregon's biggest remaining test as well.

That would be a terrible bet. So far this season Nebraska has been terrible at home. We traveled to Washington and put a 56-21 point ass-whoppin' on only to return home and barely beat South Dakota State 17-3. SDSU had two TD's called back on questionable penalties, so the score wasn't indicative of close the game actually was. Two weeks later we traveled to Kansas State and killed them 48-13, only to return home and lose to a pathetic Texas team, 13-20 in a game that featured 4 drops of easy TD's.

I don't know what it is about playing in Lincoln, but all year Nebraska has been bad at home. On the road we've had 8 turnovers, at home we've had 22. If the pattern that has developed this year stays true, Mizzu will walk all over Nebraska. I hope that it doesn't happen of course but the smart money is on Mizzu.

[Andriy Czarchenko]

Here is the new poll's top five.

Are you guys sure that Boise State doesn't have a shot at being in the top 2? If they are already #3 it seems to me that they have a shot if the other unbeatens lose.

Auburn looks really good, but I still think that they lose to 'Bama. Does Michigan State certainly pass Boise State if they stay unbeaten?

The only way I see Boise make it to top2 is if Oregon loses and Boise gets #1 in polls. They´ll never survive the computers as #2 in polls. Even as #1 it´s doubtful.

[Arakasi]

I would think people are insane if they put either Missouri or Michigan State in front of Boise. Sure you can say Boise hasn't beaten anyone, but neither have those teams. Their schedules were light and unlike Boise they are barely putting away their foes.

[Andriy Czarchenko]

OK, I'm not saying that you or lockesnow is wrong, but what makes you so sure? If they are already #3 and they are ahead of Michigan State and Missouri, how do we know that they can't finish in the top 2 especially if Auburn or Oregon loses? Will their strength of schedule drop them that much over the course of 4-5 games? Part of my point is that they are currently rated higher than unbeatens from big leagues.

Just remember that both polls are 1/3 of the score. It´s hard for more than 1 team from behind to pass them at a time. Especially with TCU at #4 in the polls.

The biggest problem for Boise is that without Oregon loss they need TCU to keep AQ teams away but then TCU probably jumps them. The built-in bias on the computers is just too strong.

[Ken Stone]

I would think people are insane if they put either Missouri or Michigan State in front of Boise. Sure you can say Boise hasn't beaten anyone, but neither have those teams. Their schedules were light and unlike Boise they are barely putting away their foes.

Mizzu beat the #1 team in the nation.

[Andriy Czarchenko]

Mizzu beat the #1 team in the nation.

But why was that team #1? Based on what exactly?

[Ken Stone]

This would be an instance in which I would say it's time to disregard the trend. It makes no sense that a team would be worse at home.

I know, right? And yet that is how it has been since Pelini took over. In 2008 we lost back-to-back games at home, first Virgina Techout and then got blown out by Mizzu 52-17. The very next week took #7 Texas Tech into overtime on the road. In 2009 lost 2 games in a row at home, one was to Iowa State(!) the other to Texas Tech, before reeling off a bunch of road victories.

It almost seems like the team thrives when there is hostile situation, and you have to adopt an "us against the world" attitude. At home everyone is patting them on the back and the focus isn't there. I don't know what it is but I know I would be much more comfortable with this game if it was in Mizzu.

[Ken Stone]

But why was that team #1? Based on what exactly?

Having a good season last year and returning a bunch of starters, then beating Florida State and Texas, and not losing any games. Does Boise State have a better claim? Who have they beaten?

ETA: At the time there were 9 undefeated teams. OK had beaten #17 Florida State and #19 Texas. Who had a better pedigree? Oregon had beaten #12 Stanford. Auburn had beaten #23 Ark and #21 South Car. MSU had beaten #13 Wisconsin. You could make an argument for any of those teams, but at best you could call it a wash.

[Arakasi]

Sure they beat OU, but OU is just not that good. Everyone was kind of shocked when they hit number 1 last week, but that is because the computers had no knowledge they barely beat a bunch of teams. Same with Auburn now. (who still have no defense) This is more so for MSU than Missouri, but those two teams have hardly looked impressive. While Boise is going out there and blowing most teams out. I think on a neutral field Boise would beat either team comfortably (as in by 10+) They have a better QB, better offensive weapons and a much better defense.

[Andriy Czarchenko]

The only way to rank teams with equal records should be what you think would happen if those teams faced on a neutral field. Asking who they have beaten is the same as saying non AQ team will never ever be #1, no matter how good they are.

[Kalbear]

To be honest, no disrespect to USC (well, maybe a little), but how is Iowa-MSU not the Gameday game? I really hope MSU loses, I want Oregon-Boise in the title game so that Stanford can get into the Rose Bowl.

Because honestly, MSU and Iowa don't have the audience and the fun that Oregon and USC both do. Two big offensive teams, one with a huge history, in a match that will likely decide the Pac-10 entirely? That's a better match than MSU (which is entertaining, but not as much as Oregon or USC to a neutral observer) or Iowa (which is boring and inconsistent).

And I do think that Oregon loses one of their games. I think they can and will beat USC, but I think they'll lose at least one. It's just too hard to run the table with Cal, Arizona and OSU left, and while they're an astoundingly good team when they don't kill themselves, they often do kill themselves with stupid stuff. All it take is one game where they start like at ASU and just can't quite recover.

[Bronn Stone]

The only way to rank teams with equal records should be what you think would happen if those teams faced on a neutral field. Asking who they have beaten is the same as saying non AQ team will never ever be #1, no matter how good they are.

Not true. They have to play tough out of conference matchups. That is all. Even if they go on the road. Plus they can easily be #1 if there are no undefeated teams in the Big 6 conferences.