[ADwD Spoilers]The Mummers dragon

[KristenM]

The question is what are Varys and Illyrio up to. And why is the Golden Company supporting the wrong side of the Targaryen coin (from their perspective)?

I'm also interested in what's up with the Golden Company. Didn't they originate as a company of exiles sworn to return to Westeros and defeat the (pretender) Targaryen's? If so, why were they willing to help Dany? And then, when Dany didn't show up in Volantis as expected, why were they willing to swear themselves to Aegon?

Perhaps it's just that passing time has made Blackfyre's original exile a thing of non-importance. But what if there's a more sinister reason they're helping out Aegon? Do they really believe he's the real deal?

[Narea]

Mummer's dragon definitely refers to Aegon being under Varys' thumb, it also quite likely means that Aegon is fake. Here is what makes me think that there is no way Aegon is a Targ :

It is said that when a Targaryen is born, the gods flip a coin. He will either be great, or mad.

There is no evidence that Aegon is either, unless you take his incredible stupidity and naiveté for insanity (which I wouldn't blame anyone for).

Another point against Aegon's authenticity is Varys' belief in him being just the right person for the throne. Varys always says he is working for the good of the realm, yet what we see is him destabilizing it and causing more death to the innocents both directly and indirectly. He has simply decided that his vision of what is best for the realm is the only right one. He is not someone who would ever endanger his power over Aegon and thus his plans for the realm by Aegon being the real heir to the throne, who could discard him anytime on a whim.

[Dragonfish]

I'm also interested in what's up with the Golden Company. Didn't they originate as a company of exiles sworn to return to Westeros and defeat the (pretender) Targaryen's? If so, why were they willing to help Dany? And then, when Dany didn't show up in Volantis as expected, why were they willing to swear themselves to Aegon?

Perhaps it's just that passing time has made Blackfyre's original exile a thing of non-importance. But what if there's a more sinister reason they're helping out Aegon? Do they really believe he's the real deal?

The male line of the Blackfyres has died out, so they may not have any pretenders available to put on the Iron Throne. Plus, at this point, I think they all care more about going home than anything else.

[Eaglewood]

I'm also interested in what's up with the Golden Company. Didn't they originate as a company of exiles sworn to return to Westeros and defeat the (pretender) Targaryen's? If so, why were they willing to help Dany? And then, when Dany didn't show up in Volantis as expected, why were they willing to swear themselves to Aegon?

Perhaps it's just that passing time has made Blackfyre's original exile a thing of non-importance. But what if there's a more sinister reason they're helping out Aegon? Do they really believe he's the real deal?

You pretty much nailed the answer yourself haha. As best as we can tell from the Dunk and Egg histories, and the background info we have on the War of the Ninepenny Kings, the Golden Company was founded by Bittersteel to "unite" all the exiles and castoffs from Westeros that ended up in Essos following the defeat of the Blackfyre Rebellion by Bloodraven and Co. The last of the male heirs of Deamon Blackfyre was named Maelys the Monstrous - because of his disfigured and oversized skull. He was killed by Ser Barristan in the War of the Ninepenny Kings, which was sort of a preemptive war against him. Maelys seems to have been Lord Commander of the Golden Company at this time, as his head is cast in gold like Bittersteel and other former Commanders. After his death is makes sense that the fervor to return the Blackfyres to the throne died out because well... they had failed to do it for over a hundred years, and the last legit heir of the Blackfyres was now dead.

All those outcasts just wanted to return to the land of their fathers, and Aegon seemed like a route to do that. Attaching yourself to a king, and winning his favor before he gains the throne has historically been a nice way to get some land in Westeros. They all must be hoping to find their own keeps.

[YoungPretender]

I don't see why anyone cares whether Aegon is real or not. He believes he is, all his companions do and he looks the deal.

So the only person who could possibly out him as a fake even if he was would be whoever planned the whole ruse. Ie Varys, and as of the epilogue he is on his side.

The only way such a reveal could have any meaning would be if he won the throne and was then discredited by Varys. And even then it would be of no more use than stannis' claims about joffrey. Revealing him now would render the whole character a pointless diversion.

But it would still have to be one of the insiders and the conditions for them to have a motive are highly convoluted.

[Tom Sawyer]

Here's what I don't get about Aegon being real. If the entire plan of Varys and Illyrio was to get Aegon onto the throne because he's the rightful ruler and the whole deal with Viserys and then Dany were just somehow steps towards that goal as Connigton suggested, why did they send Barristan to Dany instead of him?

They must have always known that there'd be a good number of questions about whether or not he was the real deal and having Aegon land with Barristan the Bold at his side would convince a hell of a lot of doubters that the kid's legit. Why ship him over to Dany with him thinking that she's the rightful heir when the true rightful heir that he's looking for was a hell of a lot closer?

Whether he's real or fake, there's not a lot about that guy's storyline which makes a lot of sense.

[Greggles]

Resurrecting this thread.

There is a huge amount of speculation about Young Griff's identity. Much based on Dany's vision in the house of the undying of a mummer's dragon which anti-Griff posters are using as proof positive that he's not an actual Targaryan. Many of the pro-Griff's are tying themselves in knots to find another candidate for the mummer's dragon while arguing passionately that Griff is the real deal.

I don't think that Young Griff's identity as a Targaryan AND as the mummer's dragon are mutually exclusive.

I'm basing this on the fact that throughout the series that 'mummery' has been used interchangeably with the word 'farce'

If we consider Young Griff as a farcical dragon we can ditch the argument about his identity since he'll be able to fulfill the prophecy and still be a bone fide Targaryan.

Consider; a young prince raised in hiding, while still young raises an army and returns home to claim his legacy and prove himself worthy to his future wife.

Then fails miserably, needing to be rescued by the princess he was trying to impress or having an appointment with Ser Ilyn Payne.

Pure farce.

[Free Northman]

Resurrecting this thread.

There is a huge amount of speculation about Young Griff's identity. Much based on Dany's vision in the house of the undying of a mummer's dragon which anti-Griff posters are using as proof positive that he's not an actual Targaryan. Many of the pro-Griff's are tying themselves in knots to find another candidate for the mummer's dragon while arguing passionately that Griff is the real deal.

I don't think that Young Griff's identity as a Targaryan AND as the mummer's dragon are mutually exclusive.

I'm basing this on the fact that throughout the series that 'mummery' has been used interchangeably with the word 'farce'

If we consider Young Griff as a farcical dragon we can ditch the argument about his identity since he'll be able to fulfill the prophecy and still be a bone fide Targaryan.

Consider; a young prince raised in hiding, while still young raises an army and returns home to claim his legacy and prove himself worthy to his future wife.

Then fails miserably, needing to be rescued by the princess he was trying to impress or having an appointment with Ser Ilyn Payne.

Pure farce.

The main reason Griff is almost certainly a fake, is that the tone of the series has consistently made it a really big deal to be a surviving Targaryen.

Daenerys and Viserys's introduction in Book 1 was highly significant. And Aemon's reveal to Jon was a very poignant moment in the books, and the TV series certainly did justice to it, succeeding in making it one of the most powerful scenes in Season 1.

Similarly, Jon's eventual revelation as Rhaegar's heir is probably the central mystery of the entire series, and the underlying tension around this issue has been gradually built up since Book 1. Up to the point where Mormont's raven starts calling him King for no apparent reason in Dance. And Mellisandre asking the flames to show her her King, but instead only being shown Jon Snow.

The point is, the revelation of a Targaryen heir is something that a HUGE amount of groundwork, foreshadowing and preperation is required for in this series. So a real bona fide Targeryen heir being introduced as late as Dance of Dragons, pretty much out of nowhere, simply doesn't have sufficient dramatic impact for it to be true. This is only highlighted by the way Martin crafted Tyrion's rather muted response to discovering Griff's supposed identity.

A fake Dragon, however, who is merely a plot device to prepare the ground for the dramatic arrival of the real Targaryens, is a much more sensible development, at this point in the story.

So I don't see the actual facts and events in the fictional world of Westeros as the main support for the Anti-Griff point of view. Instead, I see the dramatic needs of the story as a whole as the real basis of the anti Griff argument here, as it simply precludes the possibility of him being real in any way whatsoever.

[Ser Pink of Floyd]

I dont buy Aegon being anything other then a fake. I doubt GRRM would leave it to the 5th book to introduce a character that supposedly is the natural (alive) heir of the Iron Throne. If its true and he is really the real Aegon, then its nothing short of a cop-out (borderline deus ex machina device).

It just seems too convenient that when it appears that Dany isnt coming to Westeros just yet, someone claiming to be a Targ surviving child is released on the world to claim the Iron Throne by Varys and Illryio. But then i suppose.... why didnt those 2 help Dany further to get her to Westeros (e.g. sending ships).

[Black Crow]

There is a fairly simple factor to be taken into account here; Varys' story of the King, the Bishop and the Banker.

It really doesn't matter in the slightest whether Griff really is Aegon or not. What is important is whether enough people believe he is Aegon.

It therefore doesn't matter whether the term is interpreted as being a real Dragon/Targaryen controlled by a Mummer (Varys) or a fake dragon, because the end result is going to be the same.

As to the cloth dragon on poles being cheered by the crowds, this may be more literal than we thought:

In the Arianne 2 chapter from Winds of Winter we are told that the supposedly impregnable castle of Storms End has been taken by the Dragon, which sounds like Aegon (Targaryen) but suppose it was an actual dragon, or rather a mummer's dragon made of cloth held up with poles.

Leaving aside obvious precedents like that wooden horse at Troy, GRRM prides himself on a good working knowledge of mediaeval military history and the Scottish Wars of Independence and will therefore be pretty familiar with the Black Douglas taking Roxburgh Castle by moving up his men hidden under bits of cloth to look like cattle in the twilight.

:cool4:

[Greggles]

The main reason Griff is almost certainly a fake, is that the tone of the series has consistently made it a really big deal to be a surviving Targaryen.

----snip----

The point is, the revelation of a Targaryen heir is something that a HUGE amount of groundwork, foreshadowing and preperation is required for in this series. So a real bona fide Targeryen heir being introduced as late as Dance of Dragons, pretty much out of nowhere, simply doesn't have sufficient dramatic impact for it to be true. This is only highlighted by the way Martin crafted Tyrion's rather muted response to discovering Griff's supposed identity.

A fake Dragon, however, who is merely a plot device to prepare the ground for the dramatic arrival of the real Targaryens, is a much more sensible development, at this point in the story.

So I don't see the actual facts and events in the fictional world of Westeros as the main support for the Anti-Griff point of view. Instead, I see the dramatic needs of the story as a whole as the real basis of the anti Griff argument here, as it simply precludes the possibility of him being real in any way whatsoever.

As far as the groundwork, that was laid at the House of the Undying.

And back to my original point, that would be the point of the farce. The whole character set up to be a massive failure.

It really doesn't matter in the slightest whether Griff really is Aegon or not. What is important is whether enough people believe he is Aegon.

It therefore doesn't matter whether the term is interpreted as being a real Dragon/Targaryen controlled by a Mummer (Varys) or a fake dragon, because the end result is going to be the same.

As to the cloth dragon on poles being cheered by the crowds, this may be more literal than we thought:

Good point and upon further reflection is set up to take a whole pile of people down with him. Doran Martell, is now going to be torn between marrying his daughter off to this (mummer's) dragon or his son off to the actual dragon, assuming he hasn't heard of Quentyn's untimely demise. If people decide that they wish to accept and support Young Griff as Aegon for their own political advancement, he's going to be marriage fodder for every house with a nubile daughter like with the Tyrell's and their perpetually virginal daughter Margeary after Tommen's unfortunate hunting accident.

Endless potential for delicious irony when he fails.

[WillWork4NinjaPowers]

Young Griff being the "mummer's dragon" doesn't mean he isn't a Targ. He IS the dragon, in the possession of a mummer. That mummer could be Varys, Ilryo or Griff. He is THEIR dragon. As in their possession.

[Glyn Tarvoke]

Dany is a sure choice for the rider of Drogon, I agree.

In the other two, are you really serious? Tyrion a Targaryen, that is one of the weakest crackpot theories out there, reinforced by really ridiculous arguments. For example, it is obvious that Targaryens are not immune to diseases, King Daeron and his grandsons died in the Great Spring Sickness, Egg's brother died of a pox, counterexamples are all around us. All these greyscale speculations go down the drain.

"Jon is obviously Azor Ahai"? Come on, Daenerys is obviously Azor Ahai, despite the fact that some weak hints were thrown on in Dance that Jon might be it. Daenerys was the one who woke dragons from stone.

As to point #2, first be nice. No one really knows the answers but for GRMM. Who has stated in an interview he reserves the right to change his mind.

IMO, the targs are not immune from fire or disease. In the Dunk and Egg stories, and with Dany, we see that some Targs don't feel heat like normal men and rarely get ill. As you point out, they are not immune to diseases because we know some have died of illness. And we know from the Dance with Dragons back story they can be killed by fire. In ADWD, Dany ducks the main fire from Drogon and is singed. But she remarks that she knows she might have been killed. Rather, IMO this points to a conclusion that the Targs are very resistant to fire and disease rather than completely immune. (Makes sense to me and is more realistic).

As to point #3, since the "dragon has three heads" as we were told, the PWWP could well have three heads, Jon and Dany being two of them. If there is one PWWP, then I think Jon, however, is the PWWP. Because clues lead to him and I like his character more than I like Dany. She's also a viable candidate for sure. If its her, god help the world is all I can say.

[Black Crow]

She's also a viable candidate for sure. If its her, god help the world is all I can say.

Never fear, I reckon Jon's destiny is to save the world by slaying Dany

[LadyMary]

I think "Mummer's dragon" has a double meaning. 1) A "fake" dragon or a descendant of the bastard Targaryens not in line for the throne but being passed off as Rhaegar's heir, and 2) a "dragon" being trained/educated/manipulated to the iron throne by the Mummer. It's not just Quaithe who prophesies about a mummer's dragon, but Moqorro who sees "dragons true and false".

As Aegon the Conqueror and Robert Baratheon prove, winning the throne through conquest makes just as valid a King as the hereditary kings, despite claims of usurpation by those who were deposed. If the Lannisters hadn't screwed everything up so badly by incompetence, the Lords of the realm would probably accept Tommen as the legitimate king despite common knowledge that he's not Robert's true heir. I think that's why Lady Olenna - who seems to know that Cersei's children are not Robert's - is willing to let Margaery marry Tommen (after disposing of Joffrey), in the belief that no one really cares who rules as long as the realm is at peace and being ruled well which is why Margaery is trying to influence Tommen over his mother.

Anyway, back on topic...

I think Varys and his conspirators reckon that if/when doubts arise that "Aegon" is not be really Rhaegar's son, he will be married to the undisputed Targaryen and hereditary heir of Aerys, and if he also wins the throne through conquest, even those who have doubts will be placated into accepting the boy as King. Winter is coming, the realm is in a state of war and whoever occupies the throne is the least of anyone's worries as long as the occupant of the iron throne is just and reasonable and tries to right by his kingdom. People see what they want to see.

[Lummel]

Young Griff being the "mummer's dragon" doesn't mean he isn't a Targ. He IS the dragon, in the possession of a mummer. That mummer could be Varys, Ilryo or Griff. He is THEIR dragon. As in their possession.

The problem with this is that "Mummer's dragon" is shorthand for the vision that Dany has in the house of the undying which is of a cloth dragon on poles cheered by a crowd. This is afterwards described as a mummer's dragon. The point of the vision is not only that it is owned by mummers but that it is a fake, a mock up, a theatrical prop. And on the other hand - what kind of dragon would mummers own? If mummers owned a real fire breathing dragon they wouldn't be mummers for very long would they?

[Gianetta]

“A cloth dragon on poles,” Dany explained. “Mummers use them in their follies, to give the heroes something to fight.”

I have always thought that Aegon was the real deal, controlled by Varys (the mummer). After seeing this quote again, I think that he is real, but now I think that the "mummer's" bit also refers to the fact that he is a *false enemy* for Westeros - someone they will fight instead of the real enemy to come.

Layer upon layer. . .

[Black Crow]

... or perhaps (1) he's being set up for Dany to fight and so reveal herself as the true Targaryen, or (2) its the other way around and Viserys/Dany was intended as the Mummer's Dragon, inflicting the Dothraki on Westeros so that Aegon can ride to the rescue and save the day with the Golden Company.

Or then again its all mince and there really is a cloth dragon...

[mediterraneo]

Couldn't be Quentyn Martell the Mummer's Dragon?

That is, he's not the strongest candidate, but he was sent to her by the obedience to his father commands (as a mummer commands his dolls) and he was convinced to be more of a dragon that it turned out to be.

Cheers everybody.

[Lummel]

But then if you decide that Quentyn Martell is the mummer's dragon then who is going to be the Sun's son?