[ADWD Spoilers] Stannis and the Bastard

[George RR Martin]

Any chance that THEON wrote the letter (or maybe dictated it to Asha given his missing fingers)?

*He has a motive: get Jon's help to take out his tormenter.

*When he last saw Jon, Jon was still prickly about being called a bastard (before Tyrion told him to "wear it like armor"). He thought this would provoke him.

*Like Ramsay, he has a track record of lying about people's deaths.

*He knows Ramsay better than anyone in the world, and could probably imitate his tone/style.

*Most of the information in the letter (Lighbringer, Reek, Fake Arya's escape) he either knew or could have learned from Stannis.

[Jerry Fontano]

The Braavosi banker claims that Theon and Jeyne were rescued by Mors Umber's men who had Winterfell encircled and who were "waiting for the king's orders." We know Mors hates Ramsey because of Lady Hornwood, so it was his men that caused the raucous outside Winterfell, goading Roose to attack. Roose expects Stannis's army, with the Karstark traitors, and instead gets an Umber force with the White Harbor men turning on the Frey's (who would be lost in snow fighting). Roose is most likely dead, and Ramsey is alone with his men, panicked and surrounded. He probably has Mance (would make a cool prologue in book 6 imo), and he's the one who told Ramsey about the fake Lightbringer. Ramsey's letter is the babbling of a man who knows he's about to die.

As for Stannis, Asha's men from Deepwood would have passed on the message about the Karstarks, who had "brought their own supplies". Stannis most likely orders them slaughtered and their provisions and horses taken, so Stannis arrives at a besieged Winterfell with a refreshed army surrounding Ramsey's small group of personal guards and soldiers.

And as far as the letter goes, it's all the finalization of Melisandre's plan. Mance was sent to Winterfell so that he would get captured, Ramsey would send the letter, Jon would essentially abandon his duties, and be killed in fulfillment of the AA prophecy. She is strangly absent from the last few Jon chapters, aside from brief glimpses, so she has probably figured out what's going to happen, what needs to happen, and why she has to let Jon "die".

[variance]

I still think Stannis is either captured or dead. All these theories on why Ramsay would write the letter and it not being so seem hollow.

[Pipsmom]

Any chance that THEON wrote the letter (or maybe dictated it to Asha given his missing fingers)?

I think his days of that kind of scheming and manipulation are behind him. I can't see him being ready to seek revenge on Ramsay any time soon, if ever. More likely he's going to get on the first ship he can find on it's way to Volantis.

[Xenophon]

Jeyne thinks that he knows that she isn't the true Arya, and I do too. In his letter to Jon, he repeatedly calls her "my bride". Everyone else is referred to by name, except "my bride". He thinks Jon has her and knows that Jon would recognize her as not being Arya Stark.

It also would be very out of character for Roose not to tell Ramsey, IMO. Ramsey's hardly going to care that his bride is fake, and if he didn't know, he might not be as cautious about keeping her out of the public eye. It's an unnecessary risk, and we know Roose hates them.

[boonedog]

That was my big question upon reading the letter. Why is Ramsay writing the letter and not Roose?

Perhaps Roose has become a fine set of Bastard boots and gloves.

Revolutions eat, or in the Red Witch's case burn, their children and Stannis seems to be slowly burning away. Though I'd say Stannis is still on stage....

Me-sees the Red Witch having an exquisite, orgiastic exit in a hot hail of heated dragons breath...

Still she seems to want some Snow.... she really needs a Hendrix theme song

You don't care for me

I don'-a care about that

Gotta new fool, ha!

I like it like that

I have only one burning desire

Let me stand next to your fire

Let me stand next to your fire

And the North Man could counter...

A-ah-ahh-ah, ah-ah-ahh-ah / We come from the land of the ice and snow / from the midnight sun where the hot springs blow / The hammer of the gods will drive.......

Shame the books did not inspire Zepplin to reunite...they loved their Tolkien sorcery so.

[inkasrain]

Like others, I find the biggest mystery to be why Ramsey not Roose wrote the letter. The options seem to be:

1) Roose is dead, whether in battle or by Ramsey's hand. This would be incredibly stupid of Ramsey, but he's not particular politically savvy, so it's certainly possible.

2) Roose told Ramsey to write it. Perhaps to provoke Jon or to hide the fact that Roose has left Winterfell already.

3) Ramsey send the letter without his father's knowledge. It could be a panicked move on Ramsey's part, realizing that his father doesn't think all that highly of him and feeling his power slipping away.

1 seems the most likely to me right now. The letter was too unguarded to be written at Roose's command, IMO (isn't he still playing coy about his involvement in the Red Wedding), and I don't see Ramsey acting on his own otherwise.

I agree. Regardless of how much of the letter is true, it lacked any of the political intelligence Roose would have insisted Ramsay include if he'd known about or told him to write it. The thing reads like a tantrum-- "I want my Reek back. I want my bride back."-- which is why it's so frightening, and what makes me think things at Winterfell are not going the way Ramsay Snow/Bolton has decided he wants them to.

Although I rather hope Roose isn't dead, but dying extremely slowly. Maybe without his tongue.

[Starks in the Crypt]

Two quick asides. One, most badass banker of all time. My bank closes at 2 and this guy is out in snow storms in BFE. I want him as a POV just for backstory on his hat. Two, Manderly...he took his sweet time on the way to Winterfell and he is doing his same bit he had done with Davos where he goes for a 2 hour dump with his bodyguards in Winterfell. Does he have some guy on the outside he is contact with? Is he waiting on certain news or coordinating with someone? I had a thought that the Manderly contingent left with food on them or maybe there is some food cairn somewhere close by that would help solve the food shortage crisis.

This letter...I tend to think now that the poster who was thinking that maybe the sole purpose of this letter was to get Jon killed one way or the other. Jon can identify Arya as a fraud. Jon can also vouch for Theon's identity. Threatening Arya in the letter could get him to do something rash like abandoning his post to come south(done and done), resulting in him getting wacked by fellow NW. Also, the demands for hostages is another grenade being lobbed at Jon. A lot of the NW could be like, "Stannis is dead, the NW plays no part, hand over these hostages". If Jon refuses, again more conflict with the NW.

Killing Jon for the price of one raven is good business but unlike the Red Wedding or scheming to marry Robb to a nobody or even LF getting the KoT to kill Joff for him, any blowback on this letter will fall at Ramsay's feet. Tywin and LF always managed their schemes in a way that they would not precisely fall at their feet afterwards or if exposed. Ramsey has his name on this and it will be widely circulated if it is going to work. It presumably has falsehoods in it that will come out later. Perhaps Roose was quite happy for Ramsey to write this particular letter as lord of Winterfell, Roose can claim some deniability. (Also, Ramsey is so intent on proving himself that he might not suspect Roose setting him up here). One poster said it would be great if Ramsey killed Roose, I think it more likely that Roose would kill Ramsey if push came to shove. That would make for a nice prologue.

[Bumble Bee]

Jon's murder/attempted murder sadden me to no end because it came at a time when he is finally going to do something south of the Wall for a change. Big bummer there but I hope Stannis and him survive and team up. I have huge hopes for both of them.

[Kaitscralt]

It seems like most of the "good guys" are slowly rallying under Stannis, so he will likely die or become the Night King soon.

[King_Stannis]

I still think Stannis is either captured or dead. All these theories on why Ramsay would write the letter and it not being so seem hollow.

I disagree with some of the nuttier theories, but the one question that would need to be asked is why the Bastard would need hostages if he already killed Stannis. On a meta level, I find it hard to believe Martin would kill a character like Stannis offscreen when there were no less than two POV characters around. If he did I will be majorly PO'd.

The letter has an air of desperation about it once the initial chillingness wears off. When a man like Ramsay is truly scared this is the kind of letter I would imagine him writing - braggadocious and bullying. But if you read through it there is something wrong...something missing.

[jlk7e]

Everyone else is referred to by name, except "my bride".

"Bastard," "Your false king," "his red whore", "the six whores who came with him to Winterfell," "the false king's queen," "his daughter and his red witch", "his wildling princess," "his little prince, the wildling babe," "my Reek".

The only person referred to by name in the letter is Mance Rayder.

[John W]

I don't know if anyone brought this up yet but could that letter have come from Selyse or Mel to see what Jon would do? To see where his loyalties lay?

[variance]

I disagree with some of the nuttier theories, but the one question that would need to be asked is why the Bastard would need hostages if he already killed Stannis. On a meta level, I find it hard to believe Martin would kill a character like Stannis offscreen when there were no less than two POV characters around. If he did I will be majorly PO'd.

The letter has an air of desperation about it once the initial chillingness wears off. When a man like Ramsay is truly scared this is the kind of letter I would imagine him writing - braggadocious and bullying. But if you read through it there is something wrong...something missing.

Of course, he is desperate. 'Arya' is missing which means he is going to lose support of the North.

[Pipsmom]

"Bastard," "Your false king," "his red whore", "the six whores who came with him to Winterfell," "the false king's queen," "his daughter and his red witch", "his wildling princess," "his little prince, the wildling babe," "my Reek".

The only person referred to by name in the letter is Mance Rayder.

Exactly. I think that also gives us the signature of the writer. I don't see anyone else's purpose being served by that particular list of hostages Jon is supposed to bring except Mance. I figure Stannis is still freezing his ass off outside the wall, Roose is dead and Mance has Ramsay in a crow cage.

[Korvin]

Jon would not deliver such hostages, especially not the queen, and even his "friends" of the NW wouldn´t risk it before Stannis´ death is confirmed by some reliable sources. That is a clear attempt to create havoc and provoke some ill-conceived reaction including going south spontaneusly to save Stannis, Mance etc. Jon clearly understands the intention of Ramsey. That´s why he keeps the Night Watch out of the business (no internal conflict there), rallies a wildling host around him, wisely provoking them by reading the letter loud, and makes a solid plan (two hours brain storming with Tormund).

[King_In_The_North]

Two quick asides. One, most badass banker of all time. My bank closes at 2 and this guy is out in snow storms in BFE. I want him as a POV just for backstory on his hat. Two, Manderly...he took his sweet time on the way to Winterfell and he is doing his same bit he had done with Davos where he goes for a 2 hour dump with his bodyguards in Winterfell. Does he have some guy on the outside he is contact with? Is he waiting on certain news or coordinating with someone? I had a thought that the Manderly contingent left with food on them or maybe there is some food cairn somewhere close by that would help solve the food shortage crisis.

This letter...I tend to think now that the poster who was thinking that maybe the sole purpose of this letter was to get Jon killed one way or the other. Jon can identify Arya as a fraud. Jon can also vouch for Theon's identity. Threatening Arya in the letter could get him to do something rash like abandoning his post to come south(done and done), resulting in him getting wacked by fellow NW. Also, the demands for hostages is another grenade being lobbed at Jon. A lot of the NW could be like, "Stannis is dead, the NW plays no part, hand over these hostages". If Jon refuses, again more conflict with the NW.

Killing Jon for the price of one raven is good business but unlike the Red Wedding or scheming to marry Robb to a nobody or even LF getting the KoT to kill Joff for him, any blowback on this letter will fall at Ramsay's feet. Tywin and LF always managed their schemes in a way that they would not precisely fall at their feet afterwards or if exposed. Ramsey has his name on this and it will be widely circulated if it is going to work. It presumably has falsehoods in it that will come out later. Perhaps Roose was quite happy for Ramsey to write this particular letter as lord of Winterfell, Roose can claim some deniability. (Also, Ramsey is so intent on proving himself that he might not suspect Roose setting him up here). One poster said it would be great if Ramsey killed Roose, I think it more likely that Roose would kill Ramsey if push came to shove. That would make for a nice prologue.

I really don't think it's that. For Roose or Ramsay to actually do that, they have to know exactly what's the situation on the Wall is like, and also know the thought of individuals from the NW, as well as knowing the future. I mean, sending a letter full of lies that could, potentially, cause Jon to do something that may outrage some NWmen to kill him maybe is far too ambitious a ploy for anyone.

[Tyrion Stokeworth]

I think Former Lord of Winterfell has it right. Stannis breaking camp and moving to the Dreadfort, in hopes of giving the Boltons the slip in the low-visibility snows is the best catalyst for the chain of events that would make sending that letter necessary. Remember, if Stannis really did get the pants beaten off him, then Ramsay and Roose wouldn't have any reason to send a letter asking for hostages. They could just march up with their army, do cleanup (not much trouble, or so they would think, since the castles have no southern defences and they don't know about Tormund's host), and go back to Winterfell-since Stannis was their last declared enemy there'd be nothing stopping them from marching north, and they'd have no reason to warn Jon they were coming. Why demand what you can simply take? You could say that Ramsay's (and I'm pretty sure the letters from Ramsay-you can't fake his kind of crazy)demanding hostages to avoid unneccesary bloodshed...but this is Ramsay we're talking about. That muhfuh be crazy.

No, Stannis is en route to the Dreadfort, Roose is in hot pursuit, and Ramsay has been left at Winterfell. His...agitated choice of words ("TRUEBORN LORD OF WINTERFELL" - who is he trying to convince, there?) suggests that the Ghost of Winterfell may still be at large. Won't it be sweet if Ramsay goes down just like Theon?

As a side-note-going to the Dreadfort from Winterfell is also a good political move (once the truth about "Arya" is discovered, that is) for Stannis, because it keeps the Karstarks from defecting for a while. Arnolf's not going to defect till he finds himself in a situation where it's a relatively even matchup between Stannis and the Boltons. As long as Stannis keeps him away from Roose's main host, Karstark will have to stand by him. If Stannis does something to throw the war in his favor (taking the Dreadfort, fr'instance) before fighting Roose's army, Arnolf might rethink his treachery in favor of sticking with the winning side. It's risky, and not entirely in-character for Stannis (who would want to just kill the would-be turncloaks), but I can see him being persuaded otherwise.

Just my two groats.

[Ethan Dirtch]

I do not *believe* Stannis is dead. I also do not believe Mance being captured was NOT part of some greater scheme by Mance and Melisandre.

Here are my thoughts:

-Melisandre still firmly believes (until Jon proves otherwise) that Stannis is Azor Ahai

-That conviction makes her desperate to ensure Stannis' survival, so she sends Mance under the pretext of rescuing "Arya"

-If "Arya" escapes or dies, then Mance's job would be to provoke Ramsay

-by provoking Ramsay into taunting and calling out Jon, Melisandre banks on the chance that Jon would finally cave and join the fight for Winterfell, thus ensuring a more certain victory for Stannis

-to make this more convincing, Mance must provide Ramsay information that only Jon and others close to Stannis would know: the sword, the wildling princess, the heir-apparent to the King-Beyond-the-Wall, and Melisandre herself

It's also entirely possible that Mance is--aside from being humiliated and wearing the skins of at least a couple of spearwives--hale and healthy and ready for a fight should it come. I would not put it past Melisandre to offer him some sort of protection or added 'glamor' to enhance his discomfort and pain in the presence of Ramsay. Of course, I also would not put it past GRRM to have Ramsay flay Mance a little, though definitely not enough to put him out of the fight completely. After all, if Mance gets the Theon treatment, then what was the point of sparing him from the flames?

[jofo]

I want him as a POV just for backstory on his hat.

I've lurked on this site for years. I can't even guess how many tens of thousands of posts I've read about these books. I have to say, tho, that is the best one yet.