[ADWD Spoilers] Stannis and the Bastard

[Salander]

This letter really bugs me. Thanks for this thread and all your thoughts on it. I've been running the probabilities in my head and I can't decide whether Stannis is or isn't dead.

The thing that bugs me the most is the mention of Mance. Please someone, correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't Mel, Jon and Mance the only ones at the wall that know that Mance is alive? This is why his inclusion in the letter irks me. My crackpot theory is that Mance knows something (well, lots actually) about what is at the wall that Ramsey doesn't: that there's a wildling army there - loyal to him. I suspect that Mance has somehow got himself included in the letter as an appeal to the wildlings to come and get them. They are now inside the wall. Whether Stannis is dead or not (I hope he's not) isn't reliant on getting Jon and the wildlings to Winterfell to take the Boltons on.

*Shrugs* - seriously, I'm going to have to think on this some more, but the letter was, as other posters have stated, really chilling - as was what happened to Jon afterwards.

[mistrad]

This letter really bugs me. Thanks for this thread and all your thoughts on it. I've been running the probabilities in my head and I can't decide whether Stannis is or isn't dead.

The thing that bugs me the most is the mention of Mance. Please someone, correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't Mel, Jon and Mance the only ones at the wall that know that Mance is alive? This is why his inclusion in the letter irks me. My crackpot theory is that Mance knows something (well, lots actually) about what is at the wall that Ramsey doesn't: that there's a wildling army there - loyal to him. I suspect that Mance has somehow got himself included in the letter as an appeal to the wildlings to come and get them. They are now inside the wall. Whether Stannis is dead or not (I hope he's not) isn't reliant on getting Jon and the wildlings to Winterfell to take the Boltons on.

*Shrugs* - seriously, I'm going to have to think on this some more, but the letter was, as other posters have stated, really chilling - as was what happened to Jon afterwards.

Well, I always assumed the spearwives that went with him knew his identity as well.

As for Stannis being dead...nah, too easy. When does GRRM kill off a major character off screen like that? Though I guess the battle could be moved to the next book, in which case it is a cheap trick.

[Salander]

Well, I always assumed the spearwives that went with him knew his identity as well.

As for Stannis being dead...nah, too easy. When does GRRM kill off a major character off screen like that? Though I guess the battle could be moved to the next book, in which case it is a cheap trick.

They do now, but this is why I stated "at the wall". I'm sure he told them a long the way, but I'm not sure if this was clear when they left.

[Volderon]

I don't believe Stannis is dead at all, I mean c'mon, there's no way we'd hear about it instead of seeing it. Stannis has Theon and Asha and that's another plotline. The banker is with Stannis, that's another plotline.

People think Jon's not dead when they see him get stabbed but they think Stannis is dead when they don't see it :-p

[Hmm]

Don't know if this is significant or not, but Asha isn't mentioned in the letter. If Theon and "Arya" managed to slink away before or during this supposed 7-day battle with Stannis, it seems likely that Asha would have gone with them or bolted at the first opportunity. Had this battle actually taken place, wouldn't Ramsey have learned that Theon's sister was there at one time? Doesn't she qualify as a valuable hostage and someone else worthy of adding to his rambling list of people he thinks are in Jon's possession?

Also, would Ramsey call NW "crows?" I thought that was a wildling thing.

[darrylzero]

Don't know if this is significant or not, but Asha isn't mentioned in the letter. If Theon and "Arya" managed to slink away before or during this supposed 7-day battle with Stannis, it seems likely that Asha would have gone with them or bolted at the first opportunity. Had this battle actually taken place, wouldn't Ramsey have learned that Theon's sister was there at one time? Doesn't she qualify as a valuable hostage and someone else worthy of adding to his rambling list of people he thinks are in Jon's possession?

Also, would Ramsey call NW "crows?" I thought that was a wildling thing.

These are good points. I was just starting to feel foolish about looking for reasons that the letter could be false and Mance could be fine, but those are making me feel appropriately skeptical instead.

[mormont]

It provides plenty of useful information if you look at it from my angle.

So if we assume it's significant, it's significant? :P

The thing that bugs me about this is that George can do whatever he wants about Stannis and the letter because he does read these posts. He wants to surprise us when he can.

As has been said many times, GRRM does not read these posts: and he's writing what he believes to be the biggest story of his career, not trying to outwit random strangers on the internet. (Which would be a pointless exercise anyway: when you're writing the story, it's like shooting fish in a barrel.) Believe me, GRRM will be quite clear in his mind who wrote the letter, the truth of what happened at WF, and what will happen next, and that will stay fixed no matter what we say or do.

[Kaitscralt]

As has been said many times, GRRM does not read these posts:

People lie.

[Jamie Lannister]

The problem I have with the "Bolton bullshit" theory is that Ramsay is trying to bait Jon out. Why would he risk Jon's forces joining up with Stannis' unless he was utterly certain that Stannis was dead?

[kav2001c]

This is one of the most confusing points of the new book.

We know Ramsey does not care at all about anyone else (even Roose thinks he is an idiot on this point) so what benefit does he gain writing to Jon? (After all most people are contemptuous of the Nights Watch thinking them to have a tiny force of untrained criminals). Even if Ramsey caught Mance, the alliances with the wildlings came after Mance left so would still give no indication of the NW strength.

The only way Ramsey has Lightbringer is if Stannis forsakes the fire gods

Ramsay also would have no reason to capture Abel (Mance) and it seems far more likely to have taken one of the wildling spearwives

[redxavier]

The problem I have with the "Bolton bullshit" theory is that Ramsay is trying to bait Jon out. Why would he risk Jon's forces joining up with Stannis' unless he was utterly certain that Stannis was dead?

Who's to say that it's a bait at all? The letter is highly inflammatory to be sure, but that fits in with an angry and psychotic Ramsay saying "I want, I want, I want". Also, I doubt Ramsay knows anything of the large Wilding army Jon now has access to, he just thinks Jon has a few hundred men at most and is thus an easy victim to be bullied about.

From what he asks, I think it's clear he wants hostages against Stannis and hostages against Mance (or victims to help in Mance's torture).

[Lord Damian]

There is a reason that Ramsay kept calling Jon a "BASTARD", the wet crow with the wet parchment at Winterfell in Theon/Reek's chapter before they left to fight Stannis was Jon's legitimization by Robb and making him his heir. That is why Ramsay is so mad at Jon and referring to him repeatedly as "Bastard", as for the rest of the letter, We will have to wait but I am sure on the "Bastard" part.

[Dilshan Muthalib]

could this be the work of Stannis himself, he is loosing more men and possibly a message was sent to him by mel through the banker about the sister and Stannis needs more men and he knows Jon has built up a great deal of repo with the wildlings so his ploy to drag Jon to war. Stannis has always wanted Jon by his side

[Michael Jon Snow]

There are only a few people who could have known the details in the letter.

In my opinion the idea that someone at the wall wrote the letter doesn't hold water. How would they know about the escape of Theon and Jeyne? Motive, yes. Knowledge, no.

Ramsey has the necessary info.

Mance could have written the letter as he had access to the info. I don't think he had motive, but maybe.

Theon has access to all of the information in the letter. He knows that Able is Mance, he knows that he and Jeyne escaped and that Ramsey would be pissed. I don't think he has motive, but he has the correct info.

Stannis, thru Theon has the same info. Again I doubt he has the motve.

Which in my opinion leaves only Ramsey as the author.

[Michael Jon Snow]

There is a reason that Ramsay kept calling Jon a "BASTARD", the wet crow with the wet parchment at Winterfell in Theon/Reek's chapter before they left to fight Stannis was Jon's legitimization by Robb and making him his heir. That is why Ramsay is so mad at Jon and referring to him repeatedly as "Bastard", as for the rest of the letter, We will have to wait but I am sure on the "Bastard" part.

Yes, the signature "Trueborn Lord of Winterfell" also points to Bolton knowing that Robb legitimized Jon.

[mormont]

People lie.

People make silly unfounded accusations of lying, too.

Fact is, GRRM does not read these forums. Many times he's been shown to be blindsided by fan reactions or theories that he would certainly know about if he was not telling the truth here.

could this be the work of Stannis himself, he is loosing more men and possibly a message was sent to him by mel through the banker about the sister and Stannis needs more men and he knows Jon has built up a great deal of repo with the wildlings so his ploy to drag Jon to war. Stannis has always wanted Jon by his side.

Again, can you really see Stannis resorting to (or even consenting to) some really complex subterfuge for this, though? If Stannis wanted Jon by his side, he would send a command, not resort to tricks. It's just not his style.

[Michael Jon Snow]

We have to keep in mind that Mance is more or less a slave to Mel.

Anything he does is going to be influenced by Mel's scheming.

Good point. But I don't think Mel has motive. Except mayhaps to bring about Jon's death so she can bring him back to satisfy the rebirth. She had easier ways to do that.

[Kaitscralt]

I think that Mance sent the letter to get Jon to come south because he likes Jon and doesn't want him to be there when the wildlings take over the Wall and kill the Night's Watch beyond repair.

Mance is not a random good guy all of a sudden. He has motives for going to Winterfell and a vendetta against the NW.

[Relic]

So maybe that's the scenario. The Frey sorties gets wiped out by Stannis and Manderly's newly arrived troops. When they learn Arya is a fraud, they decide there's really no reason to beseige Winterfell, with its strong walls and thousands of defenders, so they march off to someplace else. Then at some point, the Boltons figure out the beseigers have disappeared, and figure "oh crap, they're marching on the Dreadfort." Roose then leads the majority of his troops to track down and engage the army heading towards his castle, leaving Ramsay in charge of Winterfell with a much smaller force again, and no beseigers.

This seems the most likely scenario if Stannis is still alive.

[Relic]

thanks for the double post sql gods