[ADWD Spoilers] Stannis and the Bastard

[fassreiter]

Back to the letter. Just noticed something, don't remember if it has ever been discussed, but it backs the theory that the letter is a forgery: Ramsay apparently demands the 'wildling princess' and the 'wildling prince' from Jon. So where would Ramsay get the idea the sister of the dead wife of a wildling king would suddenly make a 'princess'? Surely not by questioning Mance or the wildling girls, we know they don't follow names and titles. And it's a bit of a stretch for anyone to come up with those styles anyway, right? Stannis and Selyse were those that wouldn't leave the whole princess business. So there's one more point for Selyse being behind the letter. If Stannis knew about Mance, she could know, too. Or Melisandre could have told her for some reason. Those last minutes with Val and the giant also seem suspiciously as a set up. Besides, she even has a mustache to twirl, so my money is on her.

[Free Northman]

Some foreshadowing is provided in one of Theon's last chapters.

At one point he says that tensions are boiling over at Winterfell, with little love amongst the Northmen for the Freys or for Bolton, and that the only thing keeping a lid on things is the fact that Bolton holds Ned's precious daughter. He also mentions in a previous chapter that the very astute Roose shows a hint of fear at the divisions existing in his ranks.

The above really sets up the situation for Jeyne's rescue and paints a pretty picture of the likely situation at Winterfell after "Arya" is lost.

After the escape, Ramsay probably dresses Squirrel up as Arya, which shouldn't be too difficult given that no one is ever allowed to see her in any case. But he knows this cannot continue indefinitely. So he is desperate. He doesn't have a lot of time, he cannot go after Jeyne himself, and he needs a way out. He has probably also received a raven informing him of Jon's legitimization by Robb.

So he is frantic. His letter to Jon isn't a real solution, but it is the only option left to him.

So the next question is: Why does he want Selyse, Shereen, the wildling princess and Melisandre? Probably just to kill of any chances of Stannis or the wildlings still opposing him. He has probably gotten a lot of info from the captured wildlings, and is trying to wipe them all out as threats in one fell blow.

So, what happened to Stannis and the armies surrounding Winterfell?

Here's the thing. I don't think Martin wants to bleed too many more Northmen in this battle. So I don't think the northern clansmen with Stannis are going to be decimated. I think they are meant to form the basis of Rickon or Jon's future Northern Host.

So I don't think they were part of any battle lost by Stannis. They either left Stannis after Jeyne was revealed as a fake, or there was no battle.

I also don't think Stannis is meant to take Winterfell, nor is he going to unite the North under him. I think a Stark is going take back Winterfell. And it will either be Jon or Rickon.

I don't know about you, but the scene where Manderley reveals his true feelings to Davos was robbed of significant "Whoohoo" effect when Manderley offered to accept Stannis as his king in exchange for Davos retrieving Rickon. Staying true to the Young Wolf's heir, and proclaiming Rickon as King in the North would have had far more impact.

So I hope that this was just a temporary deal with the devil by Manderley, which will be made null and void by Stannis's death and the subsequent return of the heir to the King in the North. Rickon will probably not return until the end of WoW, by which time Jon will have been revealed as a Targaryen heir and Rickon will take his place.

Anyway, in summary:

Stannis is defeated - maybe not dead, but his cause is done, Jon has been revealed as heir to Winterfell, Ramsay is sitting in Winterfell, bloodied but temporarily victorious, but he has a huge problem. He has a Squirrel when he really needs a She-Wolf.

And he needs to kill the real heir as fast as possible, otherwise even his She-Wolf will not mean anything, even if he CAN get her back.

[Jeynethemaegi]

He has a Squirrel when he really needs a She-Wolf.

I hope Ramsay will find out that Squirrels are much more viscious than fake wolves

[tze]

I don't know about you, but the scene where Manderley reveals his true feelings to Davos was robbed of significant "Whoohoo" effect when Manderley offered to accept Stannis as his king in exchange for Davos retrieving Rickon. Staying true to the Young Wolf's heir, and proclaiming Rickon as King in the North would have had far more impact.

So I hope that this was just a temporary deal with the devil by Manderley, which will be made null and void by Stannis's death and the subsequent return of the heir to the King in the North. Rickon will probably not return until the end of WoW, by which time Jon will have been revealed as a Targaryen heir and Rickon will take his place.

Well, Manderly announces that he'll support Stannis if Davos brings Rickon to White Harbor, then goes off on what appears to be a suicide mission. That might not be a coincidence. Wyman Manderly promised something, but if he dies, Wylis Manderly has probably been instructed that he should not feel bound, since Wyman promised his own allegiance, not that of House Manderly in perpetuity. And once Rickon is safely ensconced in White Harbor, surrounded by Manderly knights, what's Davos going to do about it? We've seen Manderly stick to the absolute letter when it comes to honor before---he made sure to kill the Freys only after they were officially no longer his guests, after all.

I don't think the clansmen will be on Team Stannis for much longer. Honestly, I doubt they were ever really on Team Stannis. To them, Stannis is just a convenient way of getting to the Ned's little girl--have they ever actually declared Stannis their king? I think it would've been made explicit if they had. Not to mention the incredibly random appearance of Alysanne Mormont, especially after Lyanna Mormont pulled a Wylla Manderly and announced that House Mormont will only support the King in the North, a Stark. Maege could easily have sent a message to Bear Island from Greywater Watch (a rider, perhaps) instructing Alysanne that Jon Snow was declared King in the North by Robb, that Jon cannot be declared King until Stannis and his men are removed from the Wall (otherwise Jon would be killed or declared a hostage), and that Alysanne must make sure Stannis is neutralized. We're all expecting Karstark to turn his cloak, what about Mormont? She won't support the Boltons, but she could easily make sure that Stannis dies in the coming battle (and his men have been dropping like flies, so they won't be problem).

I think the Northerners all agree that Stannis cannot be permitted to take Winterfell, since nobody can take the seat of House Stark except a Stark. After all, the snowstorm has crippled Stannis, and the snows must come from the old gods, not R'hllor, so the old gods don't want Stannis to take over Winterfell. So the Northerners (Mormonts and the clansmen) wait until the battle is joined, allow Stannis's men to die taking out the Bolton men, then make sure Stannis dies. Voila--Stannis is no longer a threat to the King in the North, Winterfell has been retaken by Stark loyalists (clansmen and House Mormont), and Jon can be summoned from the Wall to take his seat as King in the North.

[Davos' Middle Finger]

I hope that the Northerners aren't just going to screw Stannis over. If it weren't for him their lands would be overrun with wildlings, he helped liberate Northern land from the Ironborn and his Hand is trying to personally return a Stark to the North at great risk to his own life, I'd say Stannis has earned some gratitude from the North.

[Davos' Middle Finger]

Double post sorry

[BoldAsYouPlease]

I don't think the clansmen will be on Team Stannis for much longer. Honestly, I doubt they were ever really on Team Stannis. To them, Stannis is just a convenient way of getting to the Ned's little girl--have they ever actually declared Stannis their king? I think it would've been made explicit if they had.

Jon instructed Stannis to require that Mors Umber take his vow of fealty before his heart-tree. I'd guess Stannis followed the same advice for the clansmen who, as Jon mentioned to Melisandre, are strong in their faith. These guys don't sound like the types to forswear vows they made with their gods as witnesses.

I think the Northerners all agree that Stannis cannot be permitted to take Winterfell, since nobody can take the seat of House Stark except a Stark.

They're all aware that Stannis took Deepwood Motte from the Ironborn and returned it to House Glover - and Robett Glover is still haggling with Davos for his House's fealty afterward, so there was no quid pro quo. Whatever other concerns the Northmen have, they know Stannis isn't interested in a seat in some Northern castle.

Maybe it's just that endless betrayal is becoming something of a cliche in the story, but I believe the Northern clans will live up to Jon's descriptions of their honor and loyalty and will keep faith with Stannis.

[Theo1]

Two things, about the letter and the situation at winterfell.

First, Mance is a badass, so may have been able to "take care of himself". He can send the letter (he is learned), the form of the message is different that Ramsey's earlier letter, he knows what provikes Jon (references to being a bastard three times), he is smart and obserrvant enough to know all about the magic sword, and other details, etc., and he has a motive to get Val, Monster and hostages (queen, pricess, etc) to deal with the living Stannis. He may respect Jon, but not sure he has fogiven his betrayal. Plus, Jon is the only one as LC who could take all those folks south. Now, how he plans to get them and overcome the group sent south is another thing (but, he knows enough about the watch to assume they might now all go down and break their vows), and perhaps he knows there may be some loyal wildlings in tow?

Second, what happened at Winterfell?

The timeline is interesting. We know, I think, that just as Bolton was assembling forces (Freys) out the front and White H's on the eastgate, that Reek and fake Ayra escaped. We know that Stanis (from both Roose - based on the wet raven and parchment) and Asha both confirm that Stannis' camp is three days ride from Winterfell. We know that Unber is outside making noise with green boys (The iron bnanker confirms it bacause its where they goot Theon and fake Ayra - from Umber outside Winterfell). So, the host did not seem to make it out of the wall to attack umbers green boys (they got Theon and Ayra and met with the banker and gave him over), unless the timing was right on the money and a quick handoff happened. So, three days after the theon/Arya exchange to the banker, they arrive at Stannis' camp. There is no montion that the Umbers outside the wall got their ass kicked. So, what happened at Winterfell? Did Manderley's group (aided by oither northmen, Umber inside, the lady, other Northmen who all figured out that Ayra was not Ayra - was it all set up by the lord of White Harbor as the dude is fat, and perhaps a bit too slow, but smart, political and loyal) end the "mummer's farce" and kick the frey's ass and Boltons too? Did Bolton read the writing on the wall, and turn on the Freys by sending them out one way and the manderlys to take them in the rear? Or, are there other possible theories?

The banker says the issue is urgent, which is why he must speak with Stannis, but that may be to reveal the Karsark traitor. Love people to weigh in, because the timeline means their was not an imminent charge out of winterfell soon after the escape.

[taurunum dire cat]

Ok,this may bee a bit crackpot but hear me out

1.There was two leters from Bolton erlier in the book,one for NW,and one for Asha,and bouth times it has been stated that it was writen in blood.There is no reference on leter of Stanises fall and mances capture of being writen in blood,witch would make more scence than ever scince Bolton is skining 6 women and aperantly tortureng Mance,not to manchen all blood that would be around after big batle.It would be in Boltons caracter to write it in Stanis own blood and brag about it and send some peace of skin,like he did with Teon.

2.I WANT MY BRIDE BACK,I WANT MY BRIDE BACK,I WANT MY BRIDE BACK!!!!

Last we sean his bride,she was just arived in Stanis camp with Teon,so if he had batled Stanis and win,wouldnt he already hawe his bride?

Now,there is one more person who could writen that leter,someone who is on a sceam of Mance,and someone who could see that Bolton lost his bride.

Melisandre.

Why would she do that?

"I look for Rllor to show me AA and all I see is Snow"

Maybe she see what will hapen when Jon read the letter,and she nead AA to be reeborn.

there was one other reacureng scentance that got stuck to my minde

Kill the boy,so man can be born

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I'm still not entirely convinced that Ramsay wrote the letter, or that he didn't write it under duress. I like the idea that Mance himself is behind it, using it as an excuse to get Val and the baby off the wall. Not sure why he'd ask for Selyse and Shireen, unless he wants to use them against Stannis.

But why would Ramsay have asked for Val and the baby? They have no value to him. Why would he care about Stannis' sword, which most people know or suspect is fake? And if Ramsay had defeated Stannis, wouldn't he have already retrieved Theon and Jeyne, who were with Stannis? Why not mention Asha's death or capture, a member of the Iron Islands royal family?

The biggest red flag for me about the letter: no piece of skin came with it. The Ramsay that sent Asha and Robb pieces of Theon's skin would have sent Jon a piece of Mance's skin. Something's rotten in Denmark.

[Guest]

On the letter's authorship: A great commenter on All Leather Must Be Boiled sees Ramsay's sociopathy (antisocial personality disorder) clear as day in the tone of the letter. This is characterized by a violation of the rights of others, deception, impulsiveness, aggressiveness, recklessness, and lack of remorse.

The letter is right out of "That's so Ramsay!" -- coming to a television near you.

[Theo1]

ok, so if you are a smart student of people (Mance is that and more as he made him self king beyond the wall, infiltrates, listens and learns) and you were trying to immitate another person (Jon knows lots about politics, people and personalities of those in the North as he proves time and time again in conversations) as part of a deception to accomplish your goal, wouldn't you want to sound like the person you were signing for? But, there are slips - calling them "crows" for example (do people in the South do that pr just people N of the wall). Your point begs the question - it is supposed to look like Ramsey (he may just not know he normally writes in blood, and sends skin with his letters). Sounds like it convinced you.

[fassreiter]

Now I definitely don't want Ramsay to be the letter writer. But I have given up on the Mance-theory by now, nice as it is. There is too much to say against it:

- There is no motive: If Mance wanted to run for it with Val and his son, he could have done that a thousand times when he was at Castle Black. He points out to Jon that his guards are a joke and he can easily get in and out via window, and he is a much better fighter than most.

And if he wanted to betray Stannis/Jon, why would he decide to go into Arya-rescue-action exactly at the moment Stannis seeemed to be standing in front of Winterfell?

And if his intention was to get Jon marching south - why should he want that?

- What I said above: The use of the words 'wildling princess/prince' is strange. Mance wouldn't call Val a princess, and he would not assume that Ramsay would use this style.

This is a point against Ramsay as letter writer as well, I think.

- There are technical difficulties, like finding a raven and someone who can send it to Castle Black, and before that, getting pink wax, hell, even getting something to write on - in Winterfell. And assuming he got all that after Winterfell had fallen makes no sense either, because then Stannis could also send a raven to Jon, and everything the letter claimed would appear as a lie.

So, apart from Ramsay, it could have been anyone who might have known about the Mance-switcheroo, someone who would call Val a princess and Mance's son a prince, someone who has an interest in Jon marching south, getting him in trouble or out of the Night's Watch:

Stannis, Melisandre, or Queen Selyse. I would like it to be Selyse.

[arakis]

what if the letter was Real and not a sack of lies, what if Theon and fake arya along with she bear and asha somehow escaped or were sent to the wall after stanis recived the messige form the Iron Bank, right before the battle. that would explain everything written. a since we know ho unexpecting and grim GRRM can be with starks why not with stanis. I somehow see this book as GRRMs experiment in how many readers convections he can brake, and killing off a pivotal character like stanis behind the seens seems posible considering what else he did during the series.

[Theo1]

Interesting point about wildling princess comment as Jon keeps shaking his head each time people in the queen's court use the term. Open to the thought. But if it is someone at CB, there is no need to ask for things like the queen, her daughter, etc. And no one there knows about Reek. Also, the dude who gets the ravens would have to be in on it or notice that a dry raven that had been there all along suddenly has a incoming message on it. Seems like is has to be from a different local. Mance may not know how much Jon understands about the wildlings (most of our insight comes from Jon's own thoughts), and there are three Maesters at Winterfell and lots of Ravens. Roose brings three with him from three different places. Not sure how they are coerced or manipulated into things, but again, it seems like Mance is one of the better people at observing, learning and studying people, things, process, culture, etc. I am convinced he is a badass mentally and physically.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

On the letter's authorship: A great commenter on All Leather Must Be Boiled sees Ramsay's sociopathy (antisocial personality disorder) clear as day in the tone of the letter. This is characterized by a violation of the rights of others, deception, impulsiveness, aggressiveness, recklessness, and lack of remorse.

The letter is right out of "That's so Ramsay!" -- coming to a television near you.

Well yeah ... if I wanted to pass off a letter as being Ramsay's, I'd want to come off like a sociopath in it, too.

[Guest]

Your point begs the question - it is supposed to look like Ramsey (he may just not know he normally writes in blood, and sends skin with his letters). Sounds like it convinced you.

All I'm saying is: I prefer to focus less on how its a forgery and turn the analysis back on Ramsay, someone who has already proved to be a master of deception in ACoK. Readers can predict Ramsay's next course of action with better accuracy than Mance or Mel's actions. Unlike those two who are complex and mysterious to us, George has given us license to read Ramsay like a fucking book, clear as day. So if the letter is faked, it might be a good idea to hypothesize what else Ramsay would possibly do, other than write that letter, once he found out Reek and Arya had escaped:

(If you believe he's dead then you can't participate in this thought experiment).

He could send his dogs to track Reek and Arya, marching out of Winterfell himself with men to find them.

He could explain that Arya was killed in the fighting with Stannis, and produce a fake body.

I'm having trouble thinking of others possibilities. Once I look at these laughable options, the snowstorm pretty much destroys his plans. Or, he writes the letter and does all of the above anyway. So to me he at minimum tortures Squirrel (the fake Jeyne), asks her why the hell she cares about Arya, tries to find out who planned the escape, then writes a threatening letter to a certain Lord Commander to distract him from harboring and naming the false Arya--the #1 thing he feared at the moment of writing the letter.

If you believe the letter is a fake then please explain what Ramsay is doing in the meantime, and how he deals with the fact that his claim on the North has disappeared. The text gives us a cause (the successful escape plan) and it's just overkill if George gave us another loose end here and doesn't let us see the effect (the letter). He'd be essentially punking us at a time in the book where some kind of resolution is required. Instead we get "Haha! You don't get to see Ramsay's reaction to a very big change in his circumstances! What you're really seeing is someone else's!" WTF?!

[the average Other]

Re: The letter

To me the letter makes perfect sense. It may seem like psychopathic rambling on the surface, but it's actually very carefully worded to send Jon a very particular message, which also makes me think that Roose either prompted Ramsay to send it or downright dictated it to him.

First look at the situation from the Boltons' point of view. All they know is that Reek and fake-Arya escaped with the help of Mance's spearwives, as they would have found out by torturing any of them. They'd also have found out that Jon Snow, Arya's half-brother, sent these wildlings. Ergo, the conclusion to draw is that the escapees are heading for the Wall as fast as they can travel, and if the tortured spearwife held out for some time before spilling the beans, they might have arrived there by the time Roose and Ramsay get this piece of info. On top of that the Boltons know that Ramsay's bride is a fake. Enter the letter.

Now look how the letter is worded, what is actually says:

- I'm the trueborn heir and you are the bastard. Remember what the attitude towards bastards is in Westeros: they're believed to be envious, malicious, and untrustworthy. Ramsay is underlining his own position as a trueborn Lord and how bad Jon will look in comparison.

- You lied about Mance Rayder and I can prove it. Ramsay can prove that Jon is exactly what bastards are believed to be: a liar and a turncloak. He's already put Mance on display so all the Lords of the North can see this.

- Stannis is dead. The only note-worthy person who might have supported Jon is dead and gone.

- Don't think I won't bother to come up there if you get difficult. Some standard posturing and threats.

Or to put it shortly: "Everyone will believe me and no one will believe you, because you're a bastard, a liar, and alone. If you know what's good for you you'll send the girl back and play along. P.S. Send hostages." The Boltons are trying to intimidate Jon, not to provoke him to come south. It's a reasonable expectation considering they don't know how far Jon is willing to stretch his vows or how much respect Jon is getting from the wildlings nowadays. If Jon had really descended on them with the wildlings the Boltons would have got the surprise of their lives.

Jon of course lacks the crucial bit of info - "Arya" is actually Jeyne - that would have enabled him to decipher Ramsay's message, so what he heard instead is: "I've noticed you now, bastard, and you've pissed me off. I'm gonna make you and your sister regret you ever defied me." Hence his reaction.

The part about hostages is also pretty revealing. Demanding Selyse and Shireen would be standard practice after killing Stannis, because Shireen is his heir, but demanding Val and Monster can only be explained if Boltons need them to threaten Mance. IMO, this strongly suggests that Mance has not been captured and is still causing trouble. Doesn't mean that the Boltons don't have someone in a cage to discredit Jon and Stannis, though.

[fassreiter]

Re: The letter

To me the letter makes perfect sense. It may seem like psychopathic rambling on the surface, but it's actually very carefully worded to send Jon a very particular message, which also makes me think that Roose either prompted Ramsay to send it or downright dictated it to him.

First look at the situation from the Boltons' point of view. All they know is that Reek and fake-Arya escaped with the help of Mance's spearwives, as they would have found out by torturing any of them. They'd also have found out that Jon Snow, Arya's half-brother, sent these wildlings. Ergo, the conclusion to draw is that the escapees are heading for the Wall as fast as they can travel, and if the tortured spearwife held out for some time before spilling the beans, they might have arrived there by the time Roose and Ramsay get this piece of info. On top of that the Boltons know that Ramsay's bride is a fake. Enter the letter.

Now look how the letter is worded, what is actually says:

- I'm the trueborn heir and you are the bastard. Remember what the attitude towards bastards is in Westeros: they're believed to be envious, malicious, and untrustworthy. Ramsay is underlining his own position as a trueborn Lord and how bad Jon will look in comparison.

- You lied about Mance Rayder and I can prove it. Ramsay can prove that Jon is exactly what bastards are believed to be: a liar and a turncloak. He's already put Mance on display so all the Lords of the North can see this.

- Stannis is dead. The only note-worthy person who might have supported Jon is dead and gone.

- Don't think I won't bother to come up there if you get difficult. Some standard posturing and threats.

Or to put it shortly: "Everyone will believe me and no one will believe you, because you're a bastard, a liar, and alone. If you know what's good for you you'll send the girl back and play along. P.S. Send hostages." The Boltons are trying to intimidate Jon, not to provoke him to come south. It's a reasonable expectation considering they don't know how far Jon is willing to stretch his vows or how much respect Jon is getting from the wildlings nowadays. If Jon had really descended on them with the wildlings the Boltons would have got the surprise of their lives.

Jon of course lacks the crucial bit of info - "Arya" is actually Jeyne - that would have enabled him to decipher Ramsay's message, so what he heard instead is: "I've noticed you now, bastard, and you've pissed me off. I'm gonna make you and your sister regret you ever defied me." Hence his reaction.

The part about hostages is also pretty revealing. Demanding Selyse and Shireen would be standard practice after killing Stannis, because Shireen is his heir, but demanding Val and Monster can only be explained if Boltons need them to threaten Mance. IMO, this strongly suggests that Mance has not been captured and is still causing trouble. Doesn't mean that the Boltons don't have someone in a cage to discredit Jon and Stannis, though.

Great post, I agree with all of it, especially with the communication failure because Jon doesn't know about Arya and the Boltons don't know he knows, but assume he does. Hope the last part about the wildling hostages is true as well. You just made my day.

[Cheesecake]

I think Stannis smashed the Bolton's army and that made Ramsey berserk.

Roose Bolton is the man who knows persuasion is much more effective than threats; if Roose is alive, he would not allow Ramsey to send a furious letter like that. Instead he would send a cold, emotionless one which has plenty evidence.

It is possible to think Roose is dead when he attacked Stannis' army. People of the North followed the Boltons because Roose Bolton is the warden of the North appointed by the Lannisters and he also has 'Arya Stark'. Ramsey already lost 'Arya Stark', and when his father dies.. Even Freys will not follow him, everyone knows Ramsey is a terrible leader and now he lacks his consensus.

Ramsey's letter is a desperate movement to have at least 'Arya Stark', because if he can't have her at least, now his own life is in peril.