[ADWD Spoilers] Stannis and the Bastard

[Markus]

I don't see a compelling reason to think that Stannis, Melisandre, Mance or some other party wrote the letter instead of Ramsay. They all lack either a plausible motive and/or specific knowledge. Whereas the specific use of key words like "Bastard", "Reek" and "trueborn son" strongly suggest that Ramsay was indeed the author.

As to the purpose of the letter, if Ramsay would've wanted to lure Jon south, then admitting that he didn't have "Arya" was hardly the smartest way to go about it. In fact, if he truly wanted to lure Jon south that's the very thing Ramsay shouldn't and probably wouldn't have stated. So his purpose was probably a different one. I wonder what's wrong with the stated purpose of the letter. Ramsay would want to get his hands on people he considers useful: to increase his legitimacy, to use them as hostages or simply to have some "fun" with people associated with his former or present enemies.

Hence, I think the mystery of the letter isn't who wrote it or its' general purpose but which parts of it are true and which aren't. As Ramsay did neither send skin of Mance nor Stannis I suppose this can be seen as a sign that he probably doesn't have them when he would consider them important enough to Jon to send their skin to him.

[darrylzero]

As much as I would like the theories about Mance Rayder as letter writer, I think this part about him being Ramsay's prisoner might be the only true part. Stannis is not dead. What would such a turn of events even do to the plot, not to mention the lack of narrative? I think the Mance-part was meant as the only true threat the letter could provide: As Ramsay assumes that fake Arya has reached the Wall by now, he must assume that Jon knows her true identity. So he lets him know that he knows Jon knows the truth (therefore calling her 'my bride' instead of 'your sister'), but that he, on his part, has proof of Jon's own cheating. He is, in fact, arraging a deal: If Jon will keep the secret about his fake Arya and secure his position in the North, he will keep silent about the fake burning of the King-Beyond-the-Wall, so Jon can secure his position as leader of the Night's Watch. Ramsay has the power to destroy Jon's status, as he assumes Jon has the power to destroy his. He has Mance, Jon has 'Arya'. He assumes that Jon would not care for some Northern girl that isn't his sister, and that he could give her up easily in order to secure his leadership in the NW. The story about Stannis and the sword could be, as most people assume, a trick to make Jon give up more hostages, it might work. But in the end he would be content with 'Arya' and maybe Theon.

This is really interesting, and I could definitely see it being true. It is awfully inflammatory language to use to seal a bargain like that, but it is Ramsay. I'm solidly on the side of Stannis still being alive (and Ramsay basically tipping his hand in this regard by asking for obvious hostages, as you mention). But it doesn't quite add up to me that no confrontation has taken place. Maybe the Manderlys have tricked the Boltons somehow, but the Boltons seem pretty wise to the possibility, honestly. If Mance killed Roose before being captured, that could make some sense.

To be honest, though, I just have trouble imagining Mance getting himself caught, by the Boltons of all people (knowing their reputation for cruelty, I'm sure), rather than just go out in a blaze of glory if absolutely necessary. I guess we don't really know that much about him, though. He could well have decided living long enough to try to escape was worth it.

There's also the matter of that cloaked man Theon passes in the night. In the Ghost of Winterfell thread, my best guess has been Harwin, but that's not so relevant for these purposes. The important thing is that he's there, and he's got an agenda that is probably pretty different from the Boltons' agenda. The chances are, even if Ramsay has Mance, all the spearwives, and the Manderlys are out of the picture somehow, there's still people dying in Winterfell. And that has to be driving Ramsay absolutely crazy.

[King_Stannis]

I don't think Stannis is dead. There were two POV characters with him, and if Martin chose to kill off a major contender for the Iron Throne offscreen like that then it is incredibly weak writing. I refuse to believe that, so Stannis is probably alive.

Didn't the banker know about Karstark's impending treachery before he left? If so, he would have told Stannis obviously.

Remember, too, Stannis doesn't think much of "Lightbringer". I could see him giving it up for a ruse. He talked about how it didn't serve him any better on the Blackwater than common steel would have.

[Nightstar]

Remember, too, Stannis doesn't think much of "Lightbringer". I could see him giving it up for a ruse. He talked about how it didn't serve him any better on the Blackwater than common steel would have.

That's because he's not the right person to wield it!

(It's like Voldemort and the Elder wand; it doesn't work because it's not the true master).

I kept hoping there'd be a moment when Jon would pick it up, quite casually, and the sword would burst into flame!

[Pipsmom]

Hostages are generally used to exert control over someone. If Ramsay had defeated and killed Stannis, why would he be asking for Jon to bring him Queen Selyse, Shireen and Mel? That only makes sense if Stannis is still alive, and Ramsay doesn't have him. He may or may not have Mance. Asking for Val and the wilding prince may mean he wants to use them to force Mance to give himself up. If he does have Mance, he might want to use them to force Mance to reveal the whereabouts of his bride and his Reek.

[jlk7e]

That's because he's not the right person to wield it!

No, it's because "Lightbringer" is a fake, a glamor - all light and no heat.

[The Floppy Fish]

What made it obvious to me that Ramsay was blagging for most of the letter was when he claimed to have overcome Stannis in 7 days of battle. Does anyone honestly believe that Stannis' army could have lasted for 7 days after the state it was shown to be in in Asha's last POV? 7 minutes would still be an optimistic estimate...

[Lost Time]

What made it obvious to me that Ramsay was blagging for most of the letter was when he claimed to have overcome Stannis in 7 days of battle. Does anyone honestly believe that Stannis' army could have lasted for 7 days after the state it was shown to be in in Asha's last POV? 7 minutes would still be an optimistic estimate...

That too stuck out to me. No way is there a 7 day siege/battle happening with his army like that. Also the fact that I don't see a Frey/Manderly alliance surviving 7 days...

And, we're talking more than a week that the Boltons don't have their only claim to Winterfell in their possession. The North could just be like, "well if Stannis has her, we could just make a deal with him and fuck over these Boltons who we don't like anyways and the Freys who we especially don't like".

[Ser Joe the Unknighted]

I for one highly doubt the Umbers' loyalty to the Boltons and so I have a hard time believing any theories that the Umbers betrayed Stannis.

[IheartTesla]

Loony theory: Arnolf Karstark wrote the letter! He wants Jon off the Wall so he can recover his kinsfolk and kill the last remaining male Stark.

More reasonable theory: Ramsay and Roose defeated the Crowfoot Umbers after an extended 7 day siege battle of Winterfell in which Roose died. Ramsay doesnt know where Theon is (could as easily be at the Wall rather than with Stannis's host) and wrot the letter in desparation. He probably tortured one of the spearwives to get the information about Stannis. As to whether Mance and Stannis are alive, I don't know. I also don't know what the point is in making Jon come south to Winterfell. Unless ... Ramsay plans to break out north of Winterfell, and hopes that Jon's party is small enough that he can deal with them along the road, and then go north to the Wall and possibly beyond.

[Aegonmyface]

Just a couple things that I feel make this complicated

1. Mors Umber is basically lurking outside of Winterfell with a portion of Stannis' army. What happened to them? Did they defect when they found out Mance is alive?

2. I just can't see old school Stannis not killing Theon, but then again this is newer Stannis.

3. All other factors aside, the Boltons still outnumber Stannis 2 or 3 to 1, right? I was figuring about 12 thousand to about 4 thousand.

[Aegonmyface]

Also, I still don't get why Stannis went straight from Deepwood to Winterfell.

The entire purpose of Deepwood was to serve as a "look Northerners, I kill ironman" PR job, so why would you do that and then charge into the realm's deepest forest? He never allowed for the potential advantages of capturing Asha to sink in.

[cybroleach]

Just a couple things that I feel make this complicated

1. Mors Umber is basically lurking outside of Winterfell with a portion of Stannis' army. What happened to them? Did they defect when they found out Mance is alive?

2. I just can't see old school Stannis not killing Theon, but then again this is newer Stannis.

3. All other factors aside, the Boltons still outnumber Stannis 2 or 3 to 1, right? I was figuring about 12 thousand to about 4 thousand.

Stannis mentions in his letter that some 5-6 thousand northmen have joined him after his victory at deepwood moat, plus Crowfood's men plus traitors' karstak's. It's hard to see Roose having over 10, including 1-2 of those with traitor Manderly.

[Markus]

All other factors aside, the Boltons still outnumber Stannis 2 or 3 to 1, right? I was figuring about 12 thousand to about 4 thousand.

It's hard to see Roose having over 10, including 1-2 of those with traitor Manderly.

Stannis wrote that he had 5k men at DM and that his numbers are growing every day. Later the 5k number is repeated in Winterfell. These would mainly consist of ca. 3k mountain clans, ca. 1-1.5k southerners and the rest various northmen sworn to Mormont, Tallhart, Cerwyn and Hornwood. He has been losing scores of men to the cold count though. Crowfood Umber will have had a few hundred men near Winterfell. Later Arnulf Karstark joined Stannis with ca. 450 men. So when you count the Umbers but not the Karstarks Stannis probably has a bit more than 5k men.

Bolton came back from the South with 4k northmen (mostly foot, mostly Boltons) and about 1.5k Freys (500 horse, the rest foot). At Barrowton and later Winterfell he is joined by Ramsay's Dreadfort men as well as the forces of Lord Ryswell and Lady Dustin. Lord Locke has also joined him. Whorebane Umber brought 400 men. Lord Manderly brought 300 men (100 knights, 200 spears). Other leaderless northmen sworn to Tallhart, Hornwood, Flint, Cerwyn, Slate, etc have also joined the Boltons.

The Boltons and Freys probably number about 5.5k. When one adds the forces of Lord Ryswell and Lady Dustin Roose may have 6-6.5k men he may think he can rely upon. He also has about 0.5k non-Bolton Northmen he brought back + 400 Umber men + 300 Manderlys + an unknown number (more than 0.5k but less than 2k I would guess) of other Northmen.

One conclusion one can draw is that the 300 Manderly men probably couldn't overwhelm 1.5k Freys on their own.

[mormont]

One conclusion one can draw is that the 300 Manderly men probably couldn't overwhelm 1.5 Freys on their own.

Indeed. But we know there are more Manderly forces, and it's entirely possible that they could have made their way to Winterfell via the river.

[King_Stannis]

Indeed. But we know there are more Manderly forces, and it's entirely possible that they could have made their way to Winterfell via the river.

I don't know...much as I want Manderly to join Stannis now, I don't think he does until he is 100% sure Rickon is found. He may have his troops engage in some "friendly fire" against the Freys, but to openly defy Bolton and the Bastard and risk losing his head...not yet.

[Nightstar]

No, it's because "Lightbringer" is a fake, a glamor - all light and no heat.

Why would it be a fake, if Melisandre truly believes Stannis to be Azor Ahai?

[mormont]

Why would it be a fake, if Melisandre truly believes Stannis to be Azor Ahai?

Because she doesn't have the real one, would be one answer. Aemon seems to indicate that it's fake when he muses that it produces no heat, would be another.

[Xenophon]

Like others, I find the biggest mystery to be why Ramsey not Roose wrote the letter. The options seem to be:

1) Roose is dead, whether in battle or by Ramsey's hand. This would be incredibly stupid of Ramsey, but he's not particular politically savvy, so it's certainly possible.

2) Roose told Ramsey to write it. Perhaps to provoke Jon or to hide the fact that Roose has left Winterfell already.

3) Ramsey send the letter without his father's knowledge. It could be a panicked move on Ramsey's part, realizing that his father doesn't think all that highly of him and feeling his power slipping away.

1 seems the most likely to me right now. The letter was too unguarded to be written at Roose's command, IMO (isn't he still playing coy about his involvement in the Red Wedding), and I don't see Ramsey acting on his own otherwise.

[Greyjoy Rebellion]

The real question is whether boltons host formed up quickly in comparison to when stannis received jeyne and theon. If I'm stannis and I have those two without an enemy already in the field i ride hard for the undefended dreadfort and leave the Bolton host to the ruin. The only reason not to do that (yes, I know arnolf, but stannis doesn't know it) was because Bolton could have beaten him back from moat cailin