[ADWD Spoilers] Stannis and the Bastard

[Lord Damian]

Ramsay wants Jon to come away from the wall where he is in essence, a Commander of an Army. Lets suppose Ramsay is beseiged at Winterfell. If he is trying to get hostages, what for? How could they be brought to him through seige lines? If the could, why give him hostages? Ramsay may have Mance, so what? I believe Ramsay is alive, in Winterfell, Roose is dead, Stannis is possibly dead. There is a big storm and the battle lines were confusing. Ramsay is scared and does not know what to do without daddy and his army to help him. His imposter wife is gone, so he has no "Stark" hostage to hold over the North. Ramsay is most likely paranoid and screaming out like a child, give me or else. The Northmen are still beholden to the Freys due to the fact that every family except the Manderley's that we know of has hostages still in the hands of the Freys/Lannisters, so they are constrained to a point.

[kupcho1]

OK, here's my theory regarding the Bastard letter:

I think the "Ramsay" letter was an inside job.

I don't think it came from Ramsay Bolton, I think it was a plant by the members of the Nights Watch that didn't like the direction Jon was heading.

Recall that Clydas was shaking when he delivered the letter, but remember that the letter was sealed with a smear of pink wax. I can't recall if Clydas could read (I imagine he could since he's serving in the Maester's stead), but even so, why would the fact that it was addressed to "Bastard" cause Mully to say that "Clydas don't look his proper self"? Clydas should have had no idea what the contents of the letter were, so why so shaken?

Also, everything in the letter – false king, magic sword, red whore, Mance Rayder is Abel, 6 whores – would have been more likely known by those at the wall than Bolton or anyone else at Winterfell.

ETA: I think much of the other information (i.e., that which wouldn't have been know at the Wall) was made up of whole cloth. I'm not sure a battle has even been fought yet at Winterfell, let alone Stannis being dead.

[mormont]

Also, everything in the letter – false king, magic sword, red whore, Mance Rayder is Abel, 6 whores – would have been more likely known by those at the wall than Bolton or anyone else at Winterfell.

But nobody at the Wall (other than Mel and Jon) knows that Mance is even alive, let alone his current guise or the mission he's on: and the other facts you list are public knowledge pretty much throughout Westeros. So that doesn't really work. I think the letter was most likely written by Ramsay.

People have asked why Ramsay would demand Selyse, Shireen and Melisandre if Stannis were dead. I don't really get this point. If Stannis were dead, Ramsay would naturally want his wife and heir to end his 'rebellion' once and for all, and that could easily include Mel, who is his closest confidante and most identifiable and powerful single servant. This demand gives us virtually no useful information, I think.

[kupcho1]

But nobody at the Wall (other than Mel and Jon) knows that Mance is even alive, let alone his current guise or the mission he's on: and the other facts you list are public knowledge pretty much throughout Westeros. So that doesn't really work. I think the letter was most likely written by Ramsay.

People have asked why Ramsay would demand Selyse, Shireen and Melisandre if Stannis were dead. I don't really get this point. If Stannis were dead, Ramsay would naturally want his wife and heir to end his 'rebellion' once and for all, and that could easily include Mel, who is his closest confidante and most identifiable and powerful single servant. This demand gives us virtually no useful information, I think.

It provides plenty of useful information if you look at it from my angle. The Night's Watch wants each and every one of them gone.

Again, I think its a NW cabal. Sealed letter, yet Clydas was shaken. I think he was forced to provide it as if it were received by raven. And why was Marsh crying when he stabbed Jon? Things happened far too fast after the letter arrived; it had to have been a conspiracy.

[Tyrion Stokeworth]

It provides plenty of useful information if you look at it from my angle. The Night's Watch wants each and every one of them gone.

Again, I think its a NW cabal. Sealed letter, yet Clydas was shaken. I think he was forced to provide it as if it were received by raven. And why was Marsh crying when he stabbed Jon? Things happened far too fast after the letter arrived; it had to have been a conspiracy.

The Men of the Night's Watch did not know about Jon's attempt to rescue Arya, and they believe that Mance Rayder is dead. If the letter was written by the NW, they would not have mentioned the Mance.

I think Clydas was freaked out because he doesn't often get letters addressed to "BASTARD". THat's not considered a polite way to address a letter, I can see why he'd have a bad feeling about it. If I was working as an AA for a guy who happened to be a homosexual, and I received a letter for him addressed to "YOU FUCKING FAGGOT", I'd be pretty freaked out on his behalf, and it's the same thing for Clydas. Plus, it's sealed with pink wax, which indicates it's from the Boltons, so Clydas would have every reason to assume that those dark wings brought dark words.

Finally, you should consider the character of the people that give Jon a Caesarian. Unlike Alliser Thorne, Marsh does not personally dislike Jon (that's why he's crying while he stabs his Lord Commander). He and Wick kill Jon because they disagree with his actions, not because of a personal vendetta. Assuming that is the case (and unless I see evidence of Jon personally wronging Bowen Marsh or other prominent stewards, I think this is a prudent assumption to make), why would they do something that could only encourage him to further diverge from what they wanted him to do? Marsh & Co. did not *want* to kill Jon, they killed him because they felt that Jon's actions would end the Night's Watch as they knew it. If Jon had gotten up in front of the wildlings and said, "I'm not going after Ramsay, and you all have to leave. After you go, we're going to seal up the tunnels with ice." then he would not have been assassinated, because then Marsh & Co would have no reason to oppose Jon.

[Guest]

Two quick asides. One, most badass banker of all time. My bank closes at 2 and this guy is out in snow storms in BFE. I want him as a POV just for backstory on his hat.

Oh, I so agree. That banker dude was awesome. In just two chapters he emerges as a player on the board game, gives the NW a loan, lends his ships to Jon for Hardhome, and seeks Stannis so he can win the iron throne by taking on its debts. Not a throw away character at ALL.

So if the next LC doesn't die at the hands of angry wildlings can he be thrown in a debtor's prison for refusing to pay back the loan?

I think Ramsay might be freaking out because he wants to get the hell out of Winterfell. That "ghost," whoever it was, had everyone on edge.

[Lord Damian]

The thing that bugs me about this is that George can do whatever he wants about Stannis and the letter because he does read these posts. He wants to surprise us when he can. The North to me is where the story is because Kings Landing and the Iron Throne can pound the sand of Dorne for all I care. The North is where all of the people I care about are (Starks and loyalalists to them). I am eager for payback to the Boltons and Freys for their treachery and I do not know how it will happen if Stannis and his army is inhialated, The Manderly's defeated and Jon dead. I am hoping for a false letter but I think Stannis is prob dead.

[Yeade]

While I've nothing to add to the debate over the authorship and authenticity of the Pink Letter, I'd like to point out there's at least two outstanding plotlines that I think are quite difficult to resolve satisfactorily if Stannis is truly dead: 1) Davos and his quest to find Rickon, 2) Theon, Asha, and perhaps Aeron's attempts to challenge the kingsmoot in Euron's absence. In order for either of these two developments to gain traction within the larger story, Stannis not only must be alive but likely victorious in ousting the Boltons from power, IMO.

Personally, I quite like the idea of Stannis decamping to Torrhen's Square or the Dreadfort after revealing fake!Arya's true identity to the northmen and somehow neutralizing the potential Karstark betrayal. He doesn't give battle to the forces in Winterfell unless it's to kill a bunch of Freys and march off with a portion of Manderly's strength. Roose Bolton sets off in pursuit, leaving Ramsay--now thoroughly humiliated by losing Theon and Jeyne Poole to Mance Rayder (who's still at large, exploring the crypts and murdering Bolton men to pass the time) and the spearwives--with a much reduced garrison and strict orders to halt his games in a sort of psychotic take on being grounded, lol.

I'd really like to see Ramsay make good on his implied threat to march on the Wall and Jon recover enough to retain field command of the wildlings (maybe even the NW) so I can read a vicious bastard vs. bastard throwdown on the kingsroad and Ghost can teach Ramsay's dogs what it takes to run with real (dire)wolves. That'd be a gazillion kinds of pure awesome, IMHO. Alas, it's probably just wishful thinking.

ETA:

At any rate, I feel the political situation in the North must stabilize to a certain extent or there won't be much that can be done to salvage anything when the Others inevitably invade in force. Keeping Stannis in play neatly serves my desire to have a three-way northern succession crisis between Jon, Sansa, and Rickon about halfway through TWOW, too. Actually, Jon taking an active part in the demise of House Bolton and reclaiming Winterfell makes that particular (hypothetical) conflict more contentious...

[Zeke]

Is anyone else annoyed that there has been no mention of a raven from Stannis to Castle Black? What gives?

I realize that one can't send a raven to an army in the field but what's stopping communication from an army to a point where ravens can be sent? We know that it's possible (e.g. the ranging led by Mormont is able to send ravens to Castle Black). Were they too stupid to bring some along? Did they eat them when they ran out of food? Was the storm too fierce (didn't seem to stop Ramsey, though)?

So, why no word from Stannis? It smacks of a plot contrivance to keep us from knowing much of anything about what's happened to Stannis.

[mor2]

I dont think that Stannis is dead nor do I think that the latter is fake. Ramizi could have easily extracted all that information from a wounded spear wife and from umber forces outside of Winterfell and sent it in rage/frustration because he lost reek/wife and cant find Stannis.

[Davos' Middle Finger]

Is anyone else annoyed that there has been no mention of a raven from Stannis to Castle Black? What gives?

I realize that one can't send a raven to an army in the field but what's stopping communication from an army to a point where ravens can be sent? We know that it's possible (e.g. the ranging led by Mormont is able to send ravens to Castle Black). Were they too stupid to bring some along? Did they eat them when they ran out of food? Was the storm too fierce (didn't seem to stop Ramsey, though)?

So, why no word from Stannis? It smacks of a plot contrivance to keep us from knowing much of anything about what's happened to Stannis.

If Stannis had a raven, he wouldn't want to risk it getting intercepted and giving away the route he was taking to Winterfell and his location.

[Zeke]

If Stannis had a raven, he wouldn't want to risk it getting intercepted and giving away the route he was taking to Winterfell and his location.

That's at least a possibility...Stannis was being cautious. But, presumably, Ramsey and his forces would already need to know Stannis' location to even hope to be able to intercept a raven and there's no particular need to specify any crucial information that might compromise them tactically in a general message back to home base.

[Pepi]

I have to bring this up; the banker was escorted by Asha's Ironmen. What if they, I dunno... Somehow assassinated Stannis, so they could escape? At which point his forces scattered, and Manderlys and Freys collected his(Stannis') remains? Ofcourse, in this case, why would Ramsay lie about the 7 days battle? But still... I think that Asha is looking for the fastest way out, and shouldn't be ignored, because i don't think she would hesitate to stab Stannis in the back. Especially if supported by some of her best men.

EDIT: Because, as far as the hill clans are concerned, their quest is over. They got "Arya".

[Theo1]

I think the letter is from Mance. He has a motive to get hostages than mean somethign to Stannis. He would get Val, etc. He is playing on Jon's anger about being a bastard thrughout the letter, trying to provoke an emotional and rash judgment. He would know and pick up many details about the sword from watching and listening at the Wall; and he would be able to pick up the details about reek from listening at WF. He could know that Jon would have to break from the NW to come South.

The writting does appear (because of what is left out of the descritpion) different than Ramsey's writting, and a different color.

Mance is intelligent, observant, and a bad ass (he can take care of himself), bested many a bad ass dude from North of the Wall and kicked Jon's ass (as rattleshirt in the practice yard)without much effort.

2 cents worth.

[mor2]

If Stannis had a raven, he wouldn't want to risk it getting intercepted and giving away the route he was taking to Winterfell and his location.

it would reveal his route\location only if he choose to write it down.

Besides who said he didnt sent any letters? we only know that he didnt sent any letters to Snow, not Melisandre or his queen. so there is nothing weird about it, unless you think that King stannis didnt feelt obligated to send regular updates to some Snow or they became writing buddy's.

[Zeke]

it would reveal his route\location only if he choose to write it down.

Besides who said he didnt sent any letters? we only know that he didnt sent any letters to Snow, not Melisandre or his queen. so there is nothing weird about it, unless you think that King stannis didnt feelt obligated to send regular updates to some Snow or they became writing buddy's.

Ravens aren't sent to individuals. They're sent to locations. In this case it would be Castle Black and its rookery.

ETA: Any message going to Castle Black would have gone through Clydas first.

[mor2]

and if Clydas was your POV instead of jon you would know more...

[Zeke]

Because Clydas would keep those messages to himself and not relay them to his Lord Commander?

[Jeejee]

Finally, you should consider the character of the people that give Jon a Caesarian.

This sentence gave me a very funny mental image.

Personally, I quite like the idea of Stannis decamping to Torrhen's Square or the Dreadfort after revealing fake!Arya's true identity to the northmen and somehow neutralizing the potential Karstark betrayal. He doesn't give battle to the forces in Winterfell unless it's to kill a bunch of Freys and march off with a portion of Manderly's strength. Roose Bolton sets off in pursuit, leaving Ramsay--now thoroughly humiliated by losing Theon and Jeyne Poole to Mance Rayder (who's still at large, exploring the crypts and murdering Bolton men to pass the time) and the spearwives--with a much reduced garrison and strict orders to halt his games in a sort of psychotic take on being grounded, lol.

I like this too. Once they have "Arya" there's no reason to attack Winterfell - unless doing so is the only way to acquire enough food to keep them alive. But with Theon and Co. Stannis has some idea of the strength of the force guarding Winterfell and he knows the Karstarks will turn on him, so maybe he'd decide that the smartest decision would be to take off for Torrhen's Square or Deepwood Motte.

However, I don't doubt that Ramsay has Mance. I suspect Lord Bolton left Winterfell with an army and hasn't returned; whether he fought Stannis or not TBD. Ramsay's left behind and, in his ignorance, is starting to panic.

[Dragons Dancing]

Lost my post when server went down.

Doubt Mance can read or write. He was a wilding child taken in by NW trained and after giving his oath he betrayed them and joined wildings. So, I do not think he wrote the letter.

I think it likely that Ramsey wrote the letter. He is desperate and it could be for any of the thoughtful scenarios posted here. I do not believe that Ramsey wants Jon because he would know that the fake is not Arya but rather because he thinks Jon & NW are supporting Stannis. I think he has Mance and Mance has convinced him that he is valuable to him by feeding him lies about the NW capability and Jon as LC involvement with Stannis.

Any fool would know that the letter would be insufficient to motivate Jon to bring all of the people listed and yet it could be hopeful that Jon will come himself. Ramsey or Mance wants something from Jon.

When the Braavos banker with his NW & Iron men contingent dumped Theon and fake Arya in the snow, you know that they knew of the deception. The dumping action says it all. They know, Stannis will know, and others will know as soon as the iron men statrt talking.

Now Ramsey does not know that the deception is over so maybe he still thinks he can carry on if he can just get her & Reek back.