[ADWD Spoilers] Stannis and the Bastard

[Former Lord of Winterfell]

I don't see a compelling reason to think that Stannis, Melisandre, Mance or some other party wrote the letter instead of Ramsay. They all lack either a plausible motive and/or specific knowledge. Whereas the specific use of key words like "Bastard", "Reek" and "trueborn son" strongly suggest that Ramsay was indeed the author.

I'd agree there's no compelling reason to reach that conclusion. But I don't think there is a compelling reason to reject it, either.

Individually, those people lack that knowledge. But we do leave the scene outside Winterfell with Theon co-located with Stannis, and Mance inside Winterfell. Collectively, those people have every bit of information contained in that letter. Motive is easy for Stannis and Melisandre. If Arya is a fraud, Stannis need a Stark to hold things together. Melisandre needs Jon to not go to Hardhome. Stannis knows Theon knows Ramsay better than anyone, and tells him to make it sound like it came from Ramsay. Easy enough.

I'd agree that the simplest explanation is that Ramsay wrote it, and that may well be correct. The one thing that makes me suspect that may not be the case is GRRM having Theon drop that nugget that Ramsay absolutely hates the word bastard, even if in reference to someone else. That's a curious thing to drop and then have Ramsay write that letter using the word anyway. But it does make sense that Stannis, etc., might bait Jon with that word, because Jon wouldn't know about Ramsay's aversion to its use.

As to the purpose of the letter, if Ramsay would've wanted to lure Jon south, then admitting that he didn't have "Arya" was hardly the smartest way to go about it. In fact, if he truly wanted to lure Jon south that's the very thing Ramsay shouldn't and probably wouldn't have stated. So his purpose was probably a different one. I wonder what's wrong with the stated purpose of the letter. Ramsay would want to get his hands on people he considers useful: to increase his legitimacy, to use them as hostages or simply to have some "fun" with people associated with his former or present enemies.

But doesn't that still leave the issue of why he mentioned Arya at all, if it went against his purposes? If he's really trying to make a trade, wouldn't it make more sense to lie and say that the rescue attempt failed, that he still holds Arya, and that if Jon wants her, he has to bring all those other people as hostages? I mean, if he's not trying to lure Jon south, how does he expect all those hostages to get to Winterfell at all? And would he really expect Jon just to ship them all of, and then just trust that Ramsay would release Mance in exchange? For that matter, why would Ramsay think Jon would value Mance more than all those other hostages he's requested?

It's really quite the puzzle because the content of the letter doesn't completely match up with the apparent motives of any of the suspects. Perhaps that disconnect is the strongest argument for resolving that problem in favor of the unbalanced Ramsay.

But I still think there is a plausible (certainly not conclusive) case that the letter was a collaborative Stannis/Melisandre/etc. effort. Assume that Stannis won completely, now sits in Winterfell, and that we'll get to see that battle at the beginning of WoW. He writes that letter with input from others to get Jon to come south. The ham-handed understanding of motive revealed in that letter may be somewhat consistent with Stannis' lack of compassion/understanding. The Arya escaped nugget is a sliver of compassion shown to Jon that lets him know that his sister isn't dead, but is still in danger.

Anyway, the purpose might have been to have Jon bring his army south, with Stannis' family. Stannis then presents him with an ultimatum -- "your sister Arya is a fraud. I still need a Stark in Winterfell. I've got all these mountain clans you expect me to rally who expect it. If you don't take up that role, I'm going to be forced to claim this castle for my own, as King, and by the way, thanks for bringing my family down to join me in my new home."

Eh, there are flaws with that too, I'm sure. It's really quite the puzzle because all of the explanations have some logical holes, which may lead us back to crazy Ramsay still being hte most likely suspect.

[Former Lord of Winterfell]

Stannis wrote that he had 5k men at DM and that his numbers are growing every day. Later the 5k number is repeated in Winterfell. These would mainly consist of ca. 3k mountain clans, ca. 1-1.5k southerners and the rest various northmen sworn to Mormont, Tallhart, Cerwyn and Hornwood. He has been losing scores of men to the cold count though. Crowfood Umber will have had a few hundred men near Winterfell. Later Arnulf Karstark joined Stannis with ca. 450 men. So when you count the Umbers but not the Karstarks Stannis probably has a bit more than 5k men.

Bolton came back from the South with 4k northmen (mostly foot, mostly Boltons) and about 1.5k Freys (500 horse, the rest foot). At Barrowton and later Winterfell he is joined by Ramsay's Dreadfort men as well as the forces of Lord Ryswell and Lady Dustin. Lord Locke has also joined him. Whorebane Umber brought 400 men. Lord Manderly brought 300 men (100 knights, 200 spears). Other leaderless northmen sworn to Tallhart, Hornwood, Flint, Cerwyn, Slate, etc have also joined the Boltons.

The Boltons and Freys probably number about 5k. When one adds the forces of Lord Ryswell and Lady Dustin Roose may have 5.5-6k men he may think he can rely upon. He also has about 0.5k non-Bolton Northmen he brought back + 400 Umber men + 300 Manderlys + an unknown number (more than 0.5k but less than 2k I would guess) of other Northmen.

One conclusion one can draw is that the 300 Manderly men probably couldn't overwhelm 1.5k Freys on their own.

Well, how loyal would those other northernors remain if they learned that they've been lied to by the Boltons, and that "Arya" is a fraud? If Stannis managed to clobber the Frey host, assisted by the timely arrival of the rest of Manderly's forces (likely a couple of thousand total, and perhaps accompanied by enough supplies to sustain both groups), the Boltons might find themselves outnumbered at Winterfell. They might also find themselves outnumbered in Winterfell by northernors who learn the truth about Arya, and maybe other truths about how it was the Boltons who sacked Winterfell in the first place, etc.

So I could see a possible huge falling out between the Boltons and their nominal supporters if that were to occur. That scenario might result in Roose being killed by fighting inside Winterfell, with Ramsay managing to maintain control. Or perhaps even problems inside the castle leading to the besieging force getting inside, with Ramsay slipping over the walls to escape as the Bolton rule crumbles. Of course, under the latter scenario, Ramsay couldn't have written the letter, although he would likely be the author in the former.

[mormont]

Eh, there are flaws with that too, I'm sure.

The biggest single one is that I just can't see Stannis forging a letter. Not only do I not think it's something he would do, I don't think it's something he could be talked into. Stannis might demand, threaten, bribe, even blackmail, but he would not resort to a complicated bit of deceit and imposture: I don't think he'd even consent to it. It just doesn't fit.

[House Stark for Life]

Well the bastard of Bolton (I refuse to call him by name) could be writing in desperation. A 7 day battle sounds crazy with such small armies.

He lost the fake Arya, and Theon. Chances are Stannis beat him in the battle with Manderly help, and Winterfell is under seige. He may be writing to Jon in the hope that the Northern lords will turn on Stannis when they see a huge wildling army marching south?

Mance....I am not so sure about. He may have escaped or may be a captive. But everyone knows about Stannis's sword.....so the bastard can just be making that up. He needs the hostages to get Stannis to lift the seige maybe?

I just had a thought. Maybe Roose left with an army heading North to intercept Jon before her gets to Winterfell and steal the hostages. Then use them to get Stannis to surrender?

The one theme in the entire letter is that it does not make sense. If the Bastard defeated Stannis why does he need hostages?

And how would Theon and Jeyene gotten away? They looked too weak to run away on their own.

I am thinking he wrote the letter in a last attempt to save his skin.

My hunch is that Stannis now has the upper hand and the bastard is trying to find some way out of his current position.

[Duskfire]

The banker informs Stannis that the Karstarks are basically about to stab him in the back, so Stannis deals with that issue. The Freys storm out of Winterfell to engage Stannis but get their ass kicked, helped by the sudden appearence of the rest of the Manderly army and the Glovers. Stannis' army is bouyed by a few thousand more men, as well as captives and whatnot, and lays siege to Winterfell. Ramsey then sends the letter just because he is a dick.

[King_Stannis]

But I still think there is a plausible (certainly not conclusive) case that the letter was a collaborative Stannis/Melisandre/etc. effort. Assume that Stannis won completely, now sits in Winterfell, and that we'll get to see that battle at the beginning of WoW. He writes that letter with input from others to get Jon to come south. The ham-handed understanding of motive revealed in that letter may be somewhat consistent with Stannis' lack of compassion/understanding. The Arya escaped nugget is a sliver of compassion shown to Jon that lets him know that his sister isn't dead, but is still in danger.

Anyway, the purpose might have been to have Jon bring his army south, with Stannis' family. Stannis then presents him with an ultimatum -- "your sister Arya is a fraud. I still need a Stark in Winterfell. I've got all these mountain clans you expect me to rally who expect it. If you don't take up that role, I'm going to be forced to claim this castle for my own, as King, and by the way, thanks for bringing my family down to join me in my new home."

Eh, there are flaws with that too, I'm sure. It's really quite the puzzle because all of the explanations have some logical holes, which may lead us back to crazy Ramsay still being hte most likely suspect.

Sorry man, that almost enters 9/11 conspiracy territory there. There is no way Stannis and Melisandre would treat Jon that way. Mel is trying to keep him alive and Stannis wrote him an almost friendlike letter after taking Deepwood. There is nothing in this book (or any other) that would make one believe your theory. I'd go so far as to say that if by some miracle you were correct it would be greeted as terrible writing by most.

Not a chance Stannis or Mel wrote that letter.

[King_Stannis]

The banker informs Stannis that the Karstarks are basically about to stab him in the back, so Stannis deals with that issue. The Freys storm out of Winterfell to engage Stannis but get their ass kicked, helped by the sudden appearence of the rest of the Manderly army and the Glovers. Stannis' army is bouyed by a few thousand more men, as well as captives and whatnot, and lays siege to Winterfell. Ramsey then sends the letter just because he is a dick.

That theory has Occam's Razor on its side, and I wouldn't surprised if most or all of it isn't true.

[Markus]

The one thing that makes me suspect that may not be the case is GRRM having Theon drop that nugget that Ramsay absolutely hates the word bastard, even if in reference to someone else. That's a curious thing to drop and then have Ramsay write that letter using the word anyway. But it does make sense that Stannis, etc., might bait Jon with that word, because Jon wouldn't know about Ramsay's aversion to its use.

Ramsay hating being reminded of his bastardy can also be seen as a reason why he would address Jon just so when he thinks Jon would hate it too. I mean, Ramsay may think he has every reason to be pissed off at Jon for stealing his bride so he might want to piss off Jon too.

As to Stannis writing the letter, Stannis is the guy who when he wrote a letter in ACoK refused to call Robert his "beloved brother" because he considered it a lie and insisted on calling Jaime "Ser Jaime the Kingslayer" and not merely "Jaime the Kingslayer". So I've real trouble to see Stannis writing or condoning such a deceiving letter. That's simply not his style at all. He is among the last persons who would ever be involved in such a letter.

But doesn't that still leave the issue of why he mentioned Arya at all, if it went against his purposes? If he's really trying to make a trade, wouldn't it make more sense to lie and say that the rescue attempt failed, that he still holds Arya, and that if Jon wants her, he has to bring all those other people as hostages?

Mentioning Arya escaped goes against the purpose of luring Jon south. Which is why I argued that this wasn't his purpose. It doesn't go against the purpose of getting her back when he thinks Jon has her or will have her though. If Ramsay would've lied to Jon about Arya to get the other hostages in trade for Arya, he would surely have risked Jon refusing his demands once Arya reached him at the Wall.

I mean, if he's not trying to lure Jon south, how does he expect all those hostages to get to Winterfell at all? And would he really expect Jon just to ship them all of, and then just trust that Ramsay would release Mance in exchange? For that matter, why would Ramsay think Jon would value Mance more than all those other hostages he's requested?

Ramsay could perhaps expect Jon to send some of his NW-men south with the hostages. As for Mance, Ramsay may believe Jon has no choice than to do what Ramsay demands regardless of whether he trusts Ramsay or whether Jon values Mance more than the other hostages.

I mean, Ramsay can't realistically expect that Jon would value Mance more than Arya for example or that Jon would necessarily trust him to give Mance back alive. And what would Ramsay realistically expect what Jon could do when Ramsay threatens Jon and by implication the NW if Jon refuses Ramsay's demands?

The castles of the NW aren't defendable against attacks from the south, the NW has fewer than 1000 sworn brothers and only a few hundred wildling fighters as far as Ramsay knew at the time. And Ramsay claims that Stannis, who could've helped Jon against Ramsay, is dead with his host defeated and smashed. So Ramsay may believe that Jon would think his situation is without much hope if he were to refuse Ramsay's demands.

[guad]

I only came here to see if you all have found proof that everything in this letter is a lie! (except that Ramsay lost Theon and Jeyne, that is). I refuse to believe that Mance escaped death in the fire to be flayed by Ramsay. NO WAY! Also no way that Stannis is dead. D:

Can we just say that it's Stannis and Mance in a random attempt to troll Jon? Just for the lulz?

[Duskfire]

I only came here to see if you all have found proof that everything in this letter is a lie! (except that Ramsay lost Theon and Jeyne, that is). I refuse to believe that Mance escaped death in the fire to be flayed by Ramsay. NO WAY! Also no way that Stannis is dead. D:

Can we just say that it's Stannis and Mance in a random attempt to troll Jon? Just for the lulz?

If Mances role in the novel was to help get "Arya" out then mission is accomplished. Maybe he does die. Or maybe he gets away and one of his women is captured and tortured for the truth. In any case, for Ramsey to have that sort of information means someone told him.

[wvlr]

Like others, I find the biggest mystery to be why Ramsey not Roose wrote the letter. The options seem to be:

1) Roose is dead, whether in battle or by Ramsey's hand. This would be incredibly stupid of Ramsey, but he's not particular politically savvy, so it's certainly possible.

2) Roose told Ramsey to write it. Perhaps to provoke Jon or to hide the fact that Roose has left Winterfell already.

3) Ramsey send the letter without his father's knowledge. It could be a panicked move on Ramsey's part, realizing that his father doesn't think all that highly of him and feeling his power slipping away.

1 seems the most likely to me right now. The letter was too unguarded to be written at Roose's command, IMO (isn't he still playing coy about his involvement in the Red Wedding), and I don't see Ramsey acting on his own otherwise.

One other possability is that Mance (or someone else) severly wounded Roose. So Roose is maybe laid up and Ramsey comes up with his great plan......

[Former Lord of Winterfell]

As to Stannis writing the letter, Stannis is the guy who when he wrote a letter in ACoK refused to call Robert his "beloved brother" because he considered it a lie and insisted on calling Jaime "Ser Jaime the Kingslayer" and not merely "Jaime the Kingslayer". So I've real trouble to see Stannis writing or condoning such a deceiving letter. That's simply not his style at all. He is among the last persons who would ever be involved in such a letter.

I'm not saying that Stannis personally wrote the letter, and he certainly didn't sign his own name to it. So I'm not sure the letter in ACoK is all that instructive.

I could see him just issuing a general directive -- perhaps at Mance -- to get Jon down to Winterfell. And turning a blind eye as to exactly what he says in the letter. So Stannis wouldn't write the letter himself, and might not even see it. All he knows is that a letter was written convincing Jon to come to Winterfell. Of course, that begs the question of why Mance would want to write the letter in the first. Would a threat from Stannis be enough? I don't know.

Mentioning Arya escaped goes against the purpose of luring Jon south. Which is why I argued that this wasn't his purpose. It doesn't go against the purpose of getting her back when he thinks Jon has her or will have her though. If Ramsay would've lied to Jon about Arya to get the other hostages in trade for Arya, he would surely have risked Jon refusing his demands once Arya reached him at the Wall.

Except that Ramsay knows she's only a fake Arya, and he knows that Jon will knows she's a fake Arya the instant he sees her. So if she manages to make it to the Wall, the whole thing is blown up and gets exposed.

Although, I suppose you could take the letter as implying that Jon had better keep his mouth shut about "Arya" if/when he finds her. And that if he does so, Ramsay won't march on the Wall. Eh, except he knows that if Arya has escaped with the help of Theon, her identity is likely to be blown before she reaches the Wall anyway. Especially if we assume Ramsay is lying about Stannis being defeated, because the logical thing for Ramsay to assume is that Stannis has her and would expose her. (of course, Stannis might not want to expose her to retain the loyalty of his clansmen, but Ramsay wouldn't know that.)

Ramsay could perhaps expect Jon to send some of his NW-men south with the hostages. As for Mance, Ramsay may believe Jon has no choice than to do what Ramsay demands regardless of whether he trusts Ramsay or whether Jon values Mance more than the other hostages.

So he expects compliance based solely on his threat to march on the Wall? I suppose that's possible. And again, it's a lower burden for making sense because Ramsay is a nutbag.

The castles of the NW aren't defendable against attacks from the south, the NW has fewer than 1000 sworn brothers and only a few hundred wildling fighters as far as Ramsay knew at the time. And Ramsay claims that Stannis, who could've helped Jon against Ramsay, is dead with his host defeated and smashed. So Ramsay may believe that Jon would think his situation is without much hope if he were to refuse Ramsay's demands.

No, that makes sense. In fact, it may make even more sense if we assume Ramsay doesn't want Jon to march south precisely because he is lying about having defeated Stannis, and if Jon marched south, he'd know that.

Eh, but if we assume that Ramsay is lying about having defeated Stannis, that means he has, at a minimum, lost Round 1 to Stannis, and is liekly bottled up in Winterfell. And if that is the case, then any such hostages couldn't get to Bolton anyway, and in fact would just run right into Stannis' own lines.

[Markus]

Well, how loyal would those other northernors remain if they learned that they've been lied to by the Boltons, and that "Arya" is a fraud? If .... They might also find themselves outnumbered in Winterfell by northernors who learn the truth about Arya, and maybe other truths about how it was the Boltons who sacked Winterfell in the first place, etc.

Many of the northmen with Bolton aren't really loyal to the Boltons. That's clear. But I wouldn't expect _all_ of them to desert him suddenly even if Arya is lost. Lord Ryswell and Lady Dustin may stay loyal as long as they think Bolton can still win or at least as long as they fear what Bolton could do to them. Whoresbane Umber may not dare to desert Bolton because he fears for the Greatjon. And I don't think there are more non-Bolton northmen than Boltons in Winterfell in any case.

So I could see a possible huge falling out between the Boltons and their nominal supporters if that were to occur. That scenario might result in Roose being killed by fighting inside Winterfell, with Ramsay managing to maintain control. Or perhaps even problems inside the castle leading to the besieging force getting inside, with Ramsay slipping over the walls to escape as the Bolton rule crumbles.

I don't doubt that there would be huge tension in Winterfell. Ramsay even wrote of Stannis' "friends" who are dead now, their heads on the walls of Winterfell. So there might have been fighting within Winterfell if he meant friends within Winterfell. I don't think there were enough northmen in Winterfell alone to overwhelm the Boltons when Ryswell and Dustin didn't change sides though and even then I'm sceptical.

It's a nice idea that problems within Winterfell could lead to the besieging force getting inside -- and it's a credible scenario in principle -- but why is Ramsay seemingly still in control then? How does Ramsay imagine hostages would get to him if he has lost Winterfell or if the castle is still besieged? And if the castle isn't besieged anymore, is this a sign that Stannis has been defeated and had to retreat or that he has given up the siege when he became persuaded that he couldn't win a siege, couldn't storm the castle and that he already had "Arya"?

[milliniar]

That theory has Occam's Razor on its side, and I wouldn't surprised if most or all of it isn't true.

Using Occam's Razor i find the most simple answer that it mostly lies.

[fassreiter]

I only came here to see if you all have found proof that everything in this letter is a lie! (except that Ramsay lost Theon and Jeyne, that is). I refuse to believe that Mance escaped death in the fire to be flayed by Ramsay. NO WAY! Also no way that Stannis is dead. D:

Can we just say that it's Stannis and Mance in a random attempt to troll Jon? Just for the lulz?

That's probably what happened.

Otherwise I am still on the theory that it's mostly a cheat for a cheat bargain that Ramsay is going to arrange. Fake 'Arya' against fake-death-Mance, no one can accuse them of anything cheatery, and all can go happy about their day, in Winterfell as well as on the Wall. If that's the case, being a hostage might not be too bad. Mance has lost his wife, his son, his army, his free folk, his kingship, his dignity and kingship value in the eyes of his people (even if it was not truly him) and his freedom, now he can't just end up being tortured and killed by a psychopath, right? I won't believe for one minute that Martin is going to do that to his character, would he now?

Yeah, he probably would, but come on. It's Mance Rayder!

[Markus]

I could see him just issuing a general directive -- perhaps at Mance -- to get Jon down to Winterfell. And turning a blind eye as to exactly what he says in the letter.

I just don't see Stannis being involved in such trickery. He is much too straightforward. Besides, why does Stannis absolutely need Jon in your scenario? If he has won Winterfell, perhaps with the help of the Manderlys, wouldn't he have been told of Bran and Rickon? Jon might be better for some purposes, but the northmen could still be rallied around any of Ned's sons.

Except that Ramsay knows she's only a fake Arya, and he knows that Jon will knows she's a fake Arya the instant he sees her. So if she manages to make it to the Wall, the whole thing is blown up and gets exposed.

Are we absolutely sure that Ramsay knows his bride is a fake? More, fake or not, he would still want his bride back either for his amusement and/or when he thinks that he can continue the deception whatever Jon knows and claims. And to get her back, he has to demand it of Jon, and so can't pretend he still has her.

the logical thing for Ramsay to assume is that Stannis has her and would expose her.

So when Ramsay actually thinks Jon has her this might be seen as supporting his claim that he has defeated Stannis and didn't find her there because he would otherwise assume she is still with Stannis and not with Jon.

Eh, but if we assume that Ramsay is lying about having defeated Stannis, that means he has, at a minimum, lost Round 1 to Stannis, and is liekly bottled up in Winterfell. And if that is the case, then any such hostages couldn't get to Bolton anyway, and in fact would just run right into Stannis' own lines.

Yes, that's the major problem with the hostage hypothesis. It makes a lot more sense when Ramsay believes that there is no army besieging Winterfell, and why would be believe so if he doesn't believe that Stannis is defeated or has retreated at least?

[Former Lord of Winterfell]

It's a nice idea that problems within Winterfell could lead to the besieging force getting inside -- and it's a credible scenario in principle -- but why is Ramsay seemingly still in control then? How does Ramsay imagine hostages would get to him if he has lost Winterfell or if the castle is still besieged? And if the castle isn't besieged anymore, is this a sign that Stannis has been defeated and had to retreat or that he has given up the siege when he became persuaded that he couldn't win a siege, couldn't storm the castle and that he already had "Arya"?

Heh, well, that gets into a somewhat circular justification for the claim that the letter was written by Ramsay. My point was that if we assume that there was a battle, but that Stannis won rather than lost, then the idea that Ramsay was trying to get hostages sent from the Wall to Winterfell loses some of its attraction because Winterfell is besieged by Stannis.

So part of all this is trying to figure out what the hell has happened. I can't see Stannis abandoning his seige if he won an initial battle. He's pretty much out of supplies, so where is he going to go? I suppose if we assume that Manderly's ships arrived with some supplies, it might be enough to supply a combined Stannis/Manderly force to march on Torrhen's Square, or perhaps even the Dreadfort, with "Arya" in tow.

So maybe that's the scenario. The Frey sorties gets wiped out by Stannis and Manderly's newly arrived troops. When they learn Arya is a fraud, they decide there's really no reason to beseige Winterfell, with its strong walls and thousands of defenders, so they march off to someplace else. Then at some point, the Boltons figure out the beseigers have disappeared, and figure "oh crap, they're marching on the Dreadfort." Roose then leads the majority of his troops to track down and engage the army heading towards his castle, leaving Ramsay in charge of Winterfell with a much smaller force again, and no beseigers.

Ramsay then sends the note hoping that the additional hostages can be used to prevent Stannis from going after the Dreadfort. That also explains why the note is written by Ramsay. Roose isn't dead, but he's in the field for the big showdown with Stannis.

[Maithanet]

A couple points:

First, we know that the letter cannot be entirely true. Even if the battle did somehow last 7 days (very unlikely) and resulted in Stannis being defeated and killed, Ramsay would not write that letter. Way too many people in Stannis' camp would know that Theon and Jeyne were there to keep it a secret. His letter does not make any sense if Ramsay knows that the two of them were with Stannis, even if we assume they escaped during the battle. And on top of that, Ramsay would not need hostages if he'd just won.

So I have been wracking my brain to come up with a compelling reason for why Ramsay would write that note, and what he was hoping to accomplish. Here's my best take on what I think is going down:

- Manderly and Frey leave the castle and encounter the Umbers, and win a confused battle somewhere outside of Winterfell. They return to the castle because the storm is still raging and they have no provisions to mount a campaign against Stannis who is still days away. Cabin fever grows ever worse with the various parties.

- Ramsay has lost his bride, but captured at least one of the spearwives, and possibly Mance as well.

- Stannis is warned about the betrayal of the Karstarks, and executes Anolf. He speaks with Theon and the Baraavosi, but until the storm abates, cannot attack Winterfell.

- Ramsay knows that the Bolton situation is precarious without "Arya" and that with so many Northmen penned together their position is unsustainable. When the weather breaks, he can march to fight Stannis, but with so many of the non-Bolton troops of dubious loyalty, he is uncertain of success. So he seeks to improve his odds through this letter.

- He uses what he learned from torturing a spearwife/Mance to bluff that he won the battle. He is hoping that if he displays sufficient details and ferocity that Jon will be cowed, and do what he can to ensure the survival of the Nights Watch. If Jon does indeed send down any of the people he asks for, they will serve as valuable hostages against Stannis or to maintain the loyalty of the Northmen or both. He is just hoping that they somehow arrive before the situation is decided.

[mnemosyne]

Except that Ramsay knows she's only a fake Arya, and he knows that Jon will knows she's a fake Arya the instant he sees her. So if she manages to make it to the Wall, the whole thing is blown up and gets exposed.

Does Ramsay really know that Fake Arya is fake? We know that Roose gets it, but Ramsay has been in the north the entire time. He has never in his life met the real Arya, and he has proven - to Roose, no less - that he is an idiot. Roose has to remind him - repeatedly - to remember to maintain the lies they are telling the rest of the North about the sack of Winterfell when he's angry. While there would be some benefit to having Ramsay know (so that he can hide her from the Northern lords who might've known her), would Roose really confide a truth like that to Ramsay, loose canon that he is?

[Alexia]

Jeyne thinks that he knows that she isn't the true Arya, and I do too. In his letter to Jon, he repeatedly calls her "my bride". Everyone else is referred to by name, except "my bride". He thinks Jon has her and knows that Jon would recognize her as not being Arya Stark.