He's not dead

[Giants bane]

With as much chaos as was going in in that moment and half queen's men and a mix of wildlings and nights watch he just needed to get everybody to focus for a second. It also kind of made him look around and notice the first blade coming just in time.

[bemused]

About the horn : When I was first reading it , I assumed it was to get the attention of Tormund and the men in the shieldhall . Now, I'm not sure. One more question...

ETA ; Yes , a horn sounding is the one thing that gets everyone to stop and hold their breath at the wall.

[Ygritte Lady Snow]

Whatever the real story behind the stabbing, we have a throat wound that doesn't seem serious at all, an abdominal wound and a shoulder/back wound whose severity depends on how deep they were and what they hit and a fourth wound that we don't see. I'd say that people have survived far worse wounds in the series. Combine that with cold (which would slow heavy bleeding) and what has to be several layers of clothing, and I don't see any reason why Jon couldn't just garden-variety survive the wounds.

I understand your point but if they really wanted to kill him (which makes all the sense considering how unsatisfied they were with his command) then why would they try to do it in public, with so many eyewitnesses? Why put themselves in a situation in what they'd lose their heads for treason? And if the intention was to kill Jon, why didn't they stabb him in a vital area? To cut his throat woud be quicker and less painful. The circumstances are incomprehensible, unless we start considering a collusion.

Jon was trying to defend Wun Wun when the whole mass started. The wildlings were 5 to 1 at that moment and they were close to Jon.

[Black Crow]

It wasn't planned. OK they may have discussed killing him to stop him becoming the next Night's King, but the whole thing was opportunistic and they simply tried to take advantage of the opportunity to scragg him - which is why they made such a bad job of it.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I understand your point but if they really wanted to kill him (which makes all the sense considering how unsatisfied they were with his command) then why would they try to do it in public, with so many eyewitnesses? Why put themselves in a situation in what they'd lose their heads for treason? And if the intention was to kill Jon, why didn't they stabb him in a vital area? To cut his throat woud be quicker and less painful. The circumstances are incomprehensible, unless we start considering a collusion.

Jon was trying to defend Wun Wun when the whole mass started. The wildlings were 5 to 1 at that moment and they were close to Jon.

What are you trying to argue? That Jon's not really dead? 'Cause I'm not denying that.

[skins7778]

I understand your point but if they really wanted to kill him (which makes all the sense considering how unsatisfied they were with his command) then why would they try to do it in public, with so many eyewitnesses? Why put themselves in a situation in what they'd lose their heads for treason? And if the intention was to kill Jon, why didn't they stabb him in a vital area? To cut his throat woud be quicker and less painful. The circumstances are incomprehensible, unless we start considering a collusion.

Jon was trying to defend Wun Wun when the whole mass started. The wildlings were 5 to 1 at that moment and they were close to Jon.

I think they knew they were going to attempt the attack and planned it. I dont think they expected Ser Patrek to be torn apart by Wun Wun though. I think their plan went to hell when the shit hit the fan but at the same time I think it helped their cause with all the confusion. Maybe without all the commotion Jon would have noticed quicker and could have defended himself better.

[lordthade]

I think the group intended to kill Jon more formally when he rode off with the wildlings toward Hardhome. Since he changed that plan and announced he would be leading an army SOUTH, they had to drastically change plans and act quickly.

I personally would have just locked the gates and sealed them up after he and his group rode north. They even hinted over and over that's what they should do, anyway. They needed to do something else if he went south with an army because everyone knows they can't stop an army from the south. :cool4:

[bemused]

I mostly agree with lordthade, but I'm thinking they wouldn't have just locked Jon out and sealed the gate , but killed him on the ranging..there are other gates and I would be really surprised to find that Jon's opposition was numerous enough to have sympathizers at all of them. Once he was taken care of, though , it would have been a done deal .

[Black Crow]

I mostly agree with lordthade, but I'm thinking they wouldn't have just locked Jon out and sealed the gate , but killed him on the ranging..there are other gates and I would be really surprised to find that Jon's opposition was numerous enough to have sympathizers at all of them. Once he was taken care of, though , it would have been a done deal .

I'm not so sure. I think what the assassination attempt showed was that there wasn't widespread opposition, just Bowen Marsh and his little gang who convinced themselves it was necessary to kill him. They probably had a variety of schemes half-thought through and rushed into this one because it was an opportunity to get him without relying on winning others over to them first - or through frustration that no-one was responding to their overtures. On earlier threads there was a lot of discussion on the similarities with the assassination of Julius Caesar, but I'd suggest there were closer parallels with the Lincoln assassination:

Jon is the leader who after a long conflict is trying to bring two sides together, and is attacked by a bitter clique intent on thwarting that reconciliation. Marsh's shout of "For the Watch" as he sticks the knife in isn't too far removed from Booth's "Sic semper tyrannis"; a cry justifying an otherwise outrageous act.

[FanTasy]

I hope (because I'd rather have Jon alive and continuing as lord Commander) that it is only a small group. Ow.. I forget so many things in the books, even after third read ... wasn't there a Kings Landing plot to send 100 men as recruits to the Night's Watch and start a rebellion from the inside, to support Janos Slynt? That plan was never executed, I guess? I don't remember that there was a sudden influx from recruits from Kings Landing.

[Val the Wildling Princess]

I hope (because I'd rather have Jon alive and continuing as lord Commander) that it is only a small group. Ow.. I forget so many things in the books, even after third read ... wasn't there a Kings Landing plot to send 100 men as recruits to the Night's Watch and start a rebellion from the inside, to support Janos Slynt? That plan was never executed, I guess? I don't remember that there was a sudden influx from recruits from Kings Landing.

Cersei was gonna send Osney Kettleblack (after accusing him of sleeping with Margaery) to Castle Black to kill Jon, but then the High Septon screwed up her plan and took him (and her xD) prisoner so I don't think she ever sent anyone to the Wall.

[FanTasy]

Cersei was gonna send Osney Kettleblack (after accusing him of sleeping with Margaery) to Castle Black to kill Jon, but then the High Septon screwed up her plan and took him (and her xD) prisoner so I don't think she ever sent anyone to the Wall.

Aha, that was the plot I was thinking about. That plot is moot. Thank you!

[Tini]

And if the intention was to kill Jon, why didn't they stabb him in a vital area? To cut his throat woud be quicker and less painful. The circumstances are incomprehensible, unless we start considering a collusion.

Have your read the detective novel "Murder on the Orient Express" by Agatha Christie? Hercule Poirot investigates the murder of a man who was stabbed 12 times. It turns out that he committed some heinous crimes but escaped justice. 12 people who were impacted by his crimes in one way or another teamed up, each stabbing him once. It was not their intention to kill him fast, it was their intention that every one of them took part in his death. They considered themselves his jury (hence the number 12), judge, and executioner.

I think it is similar here. They share out the blame, not only amongst each other but among the Watch. They don't have to feel guilty about killing Jon because they know that the stab wound they gave Jon personally wasn't lethal.

[bemused]

Black Crow.. I agree the number of conspirators was small but I think there may be a few more who are hidden .

Things that nag at me :

1. I'm not at all sure that Thorne is still north of the wall...Bowen is obviously a malcontent ,but how bold is he, really ? He just somehow doesn't seem like a ringleader to me , hasn't seemed so in the past . Nor does Othell , or the soused septon. Thorne is a take charge guy; even Jon thinks so, but he's also the guy who would work to undermine , so Jon wants to let him take charge elsewhere..supposedly where he'll be too busy to be undermining or hatching plots .

2. I'm not at all sure that the 3 heads left outside the gate were the work of the Weeper , who is reported to be miles and miles away ,preparing for a second try at the bridge. But considering Bowen's having been duped into following the Weeper's feint , and the outcome .. it was the perfect way to work on his fears.. perhaps push him beyond some sticking point.

3. Because of the physical appearance of Ramsay's letter , and maybe some of the content ( and also Clydas' being terror stricken when he delivers it ), I'm still not sure it wasn't tampered with,( recopied with additions or deletions ) before Jon receives it. The tone of the letter would be consistent with Ramsey ...or Thorne.( It wouldn't be a stretch for him to duplicate Ramsay's style. )

I don't know if I'd go so far as to say Thorne must have been at work here, but he may have been . All of the above suspicions are things that would seem easily believable of his character. And he's dropped so completely off the map , methinks we're due for an update in the next book.

I quite agree that " For the Watch " has always seemed , to me , more self-justifying and hopefully exculpatory than a noble sentiment.

ETA : I also feel that there's an element of panic in the attack ,but not that it's spontaneous . To me , it has the ring of "Quick ..plan B !" rather than something that was worked out on the spot .

[Giants bane]

I do agree with the idea that Bowen & co. had originally planned to take Jon out beyond the wall and now that he wasn't going they had to execut a quick plan b.

Slynt was the leader of the anti-Jon club. Jon put an end to that in proper fashion and that act in and of it's self set the tone at the wall that Jon would tolerate nothing less than obidience. Those that were loyal to Jon were rewarded. Unfortunately that required sending some or most of his good men far away, and pissing off (or should I say FURTHER pissing off) some of the leaders at the wall by giving positions to people such as Satin that others should have been given to the higher born criminals.

Jon also knew that he was losing friends in his dedication to his ranking. But he also knew that he could have no friends if he was going to lead. It's just too bad that in losing his friends he made so many new and apparently desperate enemies.

And Clyde can't read but the colors of the dreadfort and well known. As well as what is happening at Winterfell. And unless I'm mistaken (which is entirely possible) but the seal on the message was unbroken and Jon even got a little anxious at the sight of the bolton's colors.

But what really sealed Jon's fate was that he asked his other counsel to leave but kept tormund behind to confer with. I think thats what really set the ball rolling. Bowen already thinks Jon is turning wildinling and about to turn the wall over to the free folk. So once Jon was going to take the willing memebers of the watch south and leave the wall to what would basically consist of wildlings that was Bowen or whoever's time to strike and have some kind of defense for their heresy.

[Lord Mormont's Raven]

To me also the assassination attack looks strangely - unprofessional, somehow. Like they've been hatching that plot for a long time, but the exact when, where and how was not planned properly.

As to Ramsay's letter, I've read a hundred theories as to who wrote it, what of it (if any) is true, and why, but the idea that Alliser Thorne wrote it is new to me. Is it likely, though?

Is it likely that Alliser Thorne had the inside knowledge of what was going on at Winterfell that's revealed in the letter, re: Mance and the spearwives, Jeyne and Theon's flight (YAY!)?

And what about his motive? To intimidate Jon generally, to piss him off generally, or to set him on the road south? But for what reason? Just to get him out of the way, so Thorne and his cronies could take over control of the Watch?

And if Thorne wrote it, were Bowen Marsh and his fellow assassins in on the plan, or not? Was the assassination attempt part of Thorne's plan, or completely independent of it, and potentially counter-productive? (Can't you just see Thorne having a go at Marsh, "I come up with this brilliant fake letter so he tears off south after his stupid sister and we can quietly set things to rights again, and then you have to mess it all up by killing him, and not even managing to!!!")

I'd like to hear more thoughts on this, as I'm not convinced but still find the idea intriguing.

[FanTasy]

As to Ramsay's letter, I've read a hundred theories as to who wrote it, what of it (if any) is true, and why, but the idea that Alliser Thorne wrote it is new to me. Is it likely, though?

(snip)

I'd like to hear more thoughts on this, as I'm not convinced but still find the idea intriguing.

I seriously doubt that the letter is a set-up by Thorne and Marsh. Like you said, how would they have this information?

Could there be a agreement between the Boltons and the Queen's Men at the Wall? They seem to me as opposed to what Jon was doing as Thorne and Marsh.

And what was the intel the 'wrong way rangers' provided?

[Giants bane]

I'm convinced that Ramsey wrote that letter. If they would have smashed Stannis he would have found Theon and "Arya" in that camp. But I do believe Mance and the spear wives have been found out. If Mance is really still alive is the only problem I have with that end of the letter.

[bemused]

I don't say that Thorne is responsible for the entire letter..and perhaps not any of it. But the letter is a bit out of the ordinary for what we've seen of Ramsay's missives in the past. No part of it is written in blood , his preferred "ink" ( even Tormund seems to notice it's written in regular maester's ink ) . At least by the description we're given , it's not even Ramsay's own hand , and dictation hasn't been his style in the past , either. The smear of wax suggests a shortage of sealing wax ..only enough to smear, not the usual "hard button "...or that it was sealed in a hurry..or both.

Clydas was a bit apprehensive when he delivered the first letter... in response to which Jon , though stricken, did not go off the deep end. So why should Clydas be so much more distraught ( white faced , trembling ) when he delivers the second ? He says he's afraid , but is it only because of the arrival of the letter. ?..It makes me wonder if he had some inkling of the contents , or if he knew some one had tampered with it and was afraid of what might happen to him, as a result.( either at the hands of Jon, or whoever might have done the tampering ).

If there's any collusion with the Boltons , I would suspect the remnants of Slynt's Lannister faction ( among which , we find Thorne ) rather than Selyse and her men . Though her faction would have their own reasons for wanting Jon to go south , especially if Stannis is alive.

But some details may have been added ( or some subtracted ) to prompt Jon to take some action he might not , otherwise. ( Such as claims of Stannis' death, or additions to the hostage list )..Some action to place Jon even more firmly in Stannis camp , and perhaps provoke a reaction from KL. If someone tampered , they wouldn't yet know how much disarray the South is about to be in.

Marsh might have tampered ,thinking Jon might give up Hardhome while he tried to make sense of another threat.. but I think that's less likely.

Yes , I think Ramsay wrote a letter , but I can't be sure the letter he sent was exactly the letter Jon received .

[Lord Damian]

Something to consider too is that Stannis was behind Jon as lord commmander. Everyone up there thinks Stannis is dead, therefore if those that want to get rid of Jon saw that they had better do it now before he starts leading armies etc. Mel and the Queens men might now be in danger if in fact Mel did not set this up as a charade to begin with.