Why is he fake?

[Eejit]

I don't get Young Griff being Illyrio's child.

As far as I understand it's based on Illyrio mentioning his wife Serra who as a Lyseni resembles the Targaryen/Blackfyre family. Yet if she was Blackfyre and he's going to have to lie about her heritage to Tyrion why even bring her up?

Why look for a lie where there is no need for one? Everything Illyrio says about her is perfectly believable and consistent.

[Lummel]

Illyrio doesn't (presumably) tell Tyrion any lies. He says that serra was from a pleasure house in Lys and that he later married her to the disapproval of Pentoshi high society. And of course there is nothing odd about a wealth merchant marrying someone who would have effectively been his slave is there - perfectly normal behaviour!

It looks pretty certain that Aegon spent some time in Illyrio's household. There are the boy's clothes and Illyrio's mention of his favourite boyhood sweet, that Illyrio might be his father is suggested by Illyrio's eagerness to meet him again and the way he expresses his disappointment and the extent of his disappointment when he learns that he won't get to see the boy again - it's way more than you'd expect from some one you is just financing a coup attempt.

[Brynden Bloodraven]

Additionally, isn't Illyrio's wife described as having Targ features? There is also mention of the fact that the Blackfyre's only survive in the female line. This does not totally make Young Griff/Aegon a "fake" as there is still some hereditary claim to the throne as he (in theory) is descended from legitimized Targ bastards (at least as plausible as Robert's claim).

[the Scorpion Knight]

Additionally, isn't Illyrio's wife described as having Targ features? There is also mention of the fact that the Blackfyre's only survive in the female line. This does not totally make Young Griff/Aegon a "fake" as there is still some hereditary claim to the throne as he (in theory) is descended from legitimized Targ bastards (at least as plausible as Robert's claim).

serra had platin blonde hair and BLUE eyes

[Brynden Bloodraven]

ah good call, scorpion

.

[Tini]

Wasn't Elia staying in Maegor's Holdfast with her kids? A.k.a. the only part of Red Keep that doesn't have any hidden passages. So how did Varys smuggle a baby in and out without anyone seeing, again?

With the wetnurse, perhaps? It's how Jon smuggled out Mance Rayder's kid from under Melisandre's nose. No one wonders at the sight of a mother taking her child home / on errands.

[Bluefyre]

serra had platin blonde hair and BLUE eyes

Yup. And Aegon/YG has eyes that, with his hair died blue and in a special kind of light, seem blue too...

I'm going to repeat myself now from other threads, so readers who have read this before are advised to skip the next parts.

But I haven't seen aguments that I made in these other threads being brought up here, and I do think that they are relevant to this discussion. And I haven't heard convincing arguments for the contrary so far.

From a meta point of view, Aegon/YG has both character- and appearancewise very strong resemblances with the Blackfyre pretender in the last Dunk and Egg novella. Who also had blue(ish) eyes.

From an internal story logic point of view, it makes much more sense that the Golden Company would follow a Blackfyre to Westeros than if YG/Aegon were a Targ. It is in their founding principles that they are only allowed to break a contract when a BF claimant to the throne is around. Probably not all GC officers know this, and a lot are merely driven by prospects of plunder or land or lordship, but the commander Strickland will have to know.

Jon Connington on the other hand obviously doesn't know. (Which lends extra poignancy to his doomed hero role, with all the right intentions and all the wrong actions regarding these intentions - vintage GRRM if you ask me).

Several posters also agree that Aegon being Illyrio's (and Varys'?) main plan for the Iron Throne, with Dany (and Viserys) coming second, lends much more plausibility to Dany's part in Varys' and Illyrio's schemes so far - much more so than when both would have been Targs next in line of succession. Please see the other threads for more update on this.

I also find the internal story logic problems involving a baby switch around the sack of KL not a strong point in favor of "Aegon is real".

With regards to Varys' speech to Kevan: that sounded a bit too much like a mummer's exposé to be believed on face value. Especially since parts of it are apparently not true. Maybe Varys and Illyrio do have different goals as well.

[WillWork4NinjaPowers]

"The Sun's son and the Mummer's Dragon"

The "Sun" in this case doesn't have to be Doran, therefore not Quentyn. Elia was also a "Sun" and her son was Aegon.

The "Mummer" is Varys, his "Dragon" is Aegon.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

"The Sun's son and the Mummer's Dragon"

The "Sun" in this case doesn't have to be Doran, therefore not Quentyn. Elia was also a "Sun" and her son was Aegon.

The "Mummer" is Varys, his "Dragon" is Aegon.

Good call.

So you think it's one person with two different epithets (sun's son and mummer's dragon), and not too different people?

I still think Quentyn is the sun's son but it's cool to see different interpretations.

[WillWork4NinjaPowers]

Good call.

So you think it's one person with two different epithets (sun's son and mummer's dragon), and not too different people?

I still think Quentyn is the sun's son but it's cool to see different interpretations.

Two different people with the same name...which would mean YG is not Aegon.

BUT, it could also mean that Aegon IS Aegon, in this case.

[Eejit]

serra had platin blonde hair and BLUE eyes

She had blue eyes and golden hair streaked with silver according to the wiki. This sounds quite like Aerion Brightflame, described as having silver-gold hair (wiki has this wrong) and who we know spent time in Lys...

It seems as likely to me that Serra's description is an easter-egg, Brightflame's granddaughter as a Lyseni whore.

[FanTasy]

Hmm .... if two little bodies of children are presented by somebody like Gregor, in a blood stained cloth, I doubt anyone will check.

Cersei tells Sansa when the women of the royal household and entourage have locked themselves behind close doors what happens at a sack.

I think people would expect that Rhaegars children were murdered.

There is a nice parallel for this scene of two dead children, covered and presented, in ACOK.

I took this as a nice hint from GRRM for what could have happened before and it strenghtened me in my suspicions about a possibility that Baby Aegon was smuggled out before the sack.

Theon in ACOK tells us about the heads on the spikes at Winterfell of the miller's boys that people see what they think they see.

The only one who got suspicious and wanted to lift the cloak or cloth that covered the alleged bodies of Bran and Rickon was Luwin.

And as he tells us this was because he noticed that the legs of the biggest boy beneath the cover were straight and not crooked and bent, like Brans legs are described.

Theon says, to rub it in further, that he could have put up heads with horns and the folks at Winterfell would see only the heads of Bran and Rickon. Because people see what they expect to see. And if it is something gruesome you expect to see, most people tend to not examine too closely.

[the average Other]

With the wetnurse, perhaps? It's how Jon smuggled out Mance Rayder's kid from under Melisandre's nose. No one wonders at the sight of a mother taking her child home / on errands.

Hmmm, maybe. But still, you'd think someone would have asked where the hell she was taking the (crown) prince.

It was in this thread where people wondered about Varys' behaviour in the Kevan-killing scene, wasn't it? About why he would have been lying with no one but a dead man and his own little birds listening? I came up with another possible reason: maybe he wanted to test the story. Now that Aegon has declared himself people will be wanting to know how he survived. Well, it would be a good idea to see how a test audience reacts to the baby-swap story before they make it official. If Kevan had reacted strongly to some particular part or been obviously sceptical, there would still be time to tweak some details to make the story better. Kevan is ideal for this purpose, too, because he's politically experienced and close to Tywin, who'd have seen the bodies and everything. If he believes it, then most other people will.

[Eejit]

I would have thought Kevan would be a little preoccupied bleeding to death to quirk a skeptical eyebrow at any part of Varys' story.

[perfy]

Finally, we keep hearing about the Blackfyre Rebellion, which is supposed to be over and in the past. I don't think we'd be learning about this conflict in piecemeal bits unless something significant about it was in the pipeline. The Aegon storyline seems like the most obvious place for it to pop up.

Do you think that's also the reason why it is discussed so much during the Dunk and Egg series?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Do you think that's also the reason why it is discussed so much during the Dunk and Egg series?

I do.

[Bluefyre]

She had blue eyes and golden hair streaked with silver according to the wiki. This sounds quite like Aerion Brightflame, described as having silver-gold hair (wiki has this wrong) and who we know spent time in Lys...

It seems as likely to me that Serra's description is an easter-egg, Brightflame's granddaughter as a Lyseni whore.

Good call, Eejit.

It doesn't quite fit with what I conceive to be Varys' and Illyrio's plans, i.e. putting a Blackfyre on the throne, but here another hint has been thrown in by GRRM. Is this the red herring, or the Blackfyre hints?

Makes me like this piece of plotting even more.

[Bran Vras]

To elucidate the case of Young Griff, it's perhaps interesting to reconstitute what we know about his short life. Apparently he has lived in the poleboat since the age of 5 or so (this is what Tyrion says over the cyvasse board) with Lemore, Haldon, Griff, Duck, Ysille and Yandry. But the river is a dangerous place, with pirates, Dothraki, greyscale etc. So I guess the whole group, but Yisille and Yandry, who seem to have been hired for this specific journey, was based in a secure place. We do not know where the Shy Maid came from when we first see it near Pentos. On the map, I can't see any place of interest mentioned in the vicinity.

[hotweaselsoup]

She had blue eyes and golden hair streaked with silver according to the wiki. This sounds quite like Aerion Brightflame, described as having silver-gold hair (wiki has this wrong) and who we know spent time in Lys...

It seems as likely to me that Serra's description is an easter-egg, Brightflame's granddaughter as a Lyseni whore.

See also, Shiera Seastar:

Shiera was renowned as a famous beauty and seductress, with long Targaryen silver-gold hair, and a heart-shaped face. Although she had two mismatched eyes, (one blue, the other green), it was said that the "defect" only enhanced her beauty. She was a great reader, even at an early age, spoke many languages, and maintained a large and arcane library. She also was reputed to share her mother's skill in the dark arts.^[2]

Shiera's mother was Lady Serenei of Lys. Serenei-->Shiera-->?-->Serra?? Shiera had a famous necklace of alternating sapphires and emeralds, and I'm wondering if that is going to turn up at some point.

ETA: on Aerion, I think you're right that he is going to show up again, somehow. I don't think I believe that he died from drinking the wildfire. I've played with the idea that Brightflame was the sorcerer who castrated Varys - there is a passage in The Hedge Knight that might hint at this. I know the timelines get strange, but there is all this talk about people practicing "dark arts" to maintain their youth. Besides, Aerion Brightflame seems too perfect a villain to waste...

[dtones520]

People talk about how Aegon being real and how it makes Jons role less important, I don't agree with that. Jon, Danerys and Aegon were all born around the same time, probably within a few months, if not weeks of each other. It is said that there was comet seen at Aegons birth, which cause Rhaegar to believe that he was the PtwP, if they were all born around the same time that comet could have been seen at all of their births. If the Dragon needs three heads, Jon, Danerys and Aegon fit the billing for that. So, Aegon being realonly makes Jon and Danys story more important because the Dragon needs three heads and they, if R+L=J is true, are those three heads.

Also, I think the beware of the Mummers Dragon is more in reference to Varys himself than Aegon. If she can make Aegon her dragon, not Varys' toy, she has the second head, then just needs to get to the Wall and Jon to complete the three heads and the Song if Ice and Fire.