Why is he fake?

[Errant Bard]

A scenario he can engineer with any street urchin he can find.

If he cares about Targaryens and considers them his masters, he doesn't let them die, none of them. If he purposefully leaves Targaryens to die when he could have saved them, then the fact that one is a Targaryen or not doesn't matter one iota to him, and thus caring about saving and then placing a "true" Targaryen on the throne is really just talk.

Of course, this all supposes Varys can see into the future and can know Elia and Aegon will get killed and made unrecognizable. Else when that other kid grows to be either seen as the real heir or one with no physical similarities with Aegon, and he comes up with some pretender, it would severely diminish his case, or make the real Aegon be chased all the same. Not too useful as a rallying tactic.

[Eejit]

A scenario he can engineer with any street urchin he can find.

If he cares about Targaryens and considers them his masters, he doesn't let them die, none of them. If he purposefully leaves Targaryens to die when he could have saved them, then the fact that one is a Targaryen or not doesn't matter one iota to him, and thus caring about saving and then placing a "true" Targaryen on the throne is really just talk.

OR he doesn't care about Targaryens per se but only about the child he (and Rhaegar) thought was The Prince That Was Promised.

Really, him trying to help AADany used to be a popular theory, but it makes even more sense with him [initally] believing in AAegon...

[Errant Bard]

That just feels odd: Don't help Rhaenys when you can, but help Dany, then turn around and help "Aegon" against Dany, then turn around and claim he's working war for the sake of children. Doesn't really fit with his logorrhea in the epilogue, talking about the realm and children and whatnot.

[Buried Treasure]

Huh, if you have time to fetch a kid and grab another from his mother's arms, you could as well grab Rhaenys instead of the Aegon replacement, and you can also grab Elia while you are at it.

Why is a switch even so necessary as to sacrifice intentionally Elia of Dorne and Rhaenys? When you can just get everyone out and screw the guys who don't find babies to kill.

It is for this reason that I think if a switch happened it occurred days earlier and that Varys was keeping himself scarce on the night of the attack. A substitution was necessary, rather than simply removing Aegon, because they are trying to keep the secret from Aerys, who has forbidden the child to be sent out of the city. Rhaenys was too old and could not be changed for a lookalike as the people of the Red Keep would spot that immediately.

It solves the problem of not being able to anticipate the damage Gregor did in his attack - they were not trying to fool Robert, only Aerys. They switch was intended only to save the life of Aegon in an attack on the city, and worry about pursuit later. There are other problems with this scenario though, such as'why would Elia trust Varys'.

Mind you. I still think Aegon got his poor little head smashed in and that Varys is an opportunist with an imposter.

[Lummel]

The other problem with that idea is that Jaime remembers Varys as being shocked when Pycelle persuaded Aerys to have the gates opened to Tywin. If Varys wasn't expecting the city to fall why would he be swapping babies in advance?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

The other problem with that idea is that Jaime remembers Varys as being shocked when Pycelle persuaded Aerys to have the gates opened to Tywin. If Varys wasn't expecting the city to fall why would he be swapping babies in advance?

Apparently this is something he could have foreseen, or so people tell me. I'm a little more skeptical.

[Lummel]

Yes I've seen that argued too. But then I'm amazed that any readers are convinced by the baby swapping story at all. I suppose if you can believe that then it's easier to imagine that Varys had foreseen the fall of the city in principal but was just surprised at the exact moment that it transpired.

[Buried Treasure]

The other problem with that idea is that Jaime remembers Varys as being shocked when Pycelle persuaded Aerys to have the gates opened to Tywin. If Varys wasn't expecting the city to fall why would he be swapping babies in advance?

If the city hadn't fallen by treachery it still might have been taken by storm, and quite quickly, the city seems too large with too much wall to man for a long siege to be necessary. I'd have to check Tyrion's preperation for the Battle of the Blackwater to be certain how defensible Kings Landing is.

In any case the threat was deemed great enough that Rhaella and Viserys were sent away in advance. Elia and her children were only kept close because Aerys distrusted the Dornish.

[Lummel]

Oh for sure, but then you've got this scenario in which Varys believes the city may fall at some point, convinces Elia that it's dangerous enough to need to send Aegon away but not so dangerous for her and Rhaenys to need to go (or alternatively that they should be prepared to sacrifice themselves). Obviously Aerys is having them watched too closely for Elia to be able to escape but not so closely that Varys isn't able to swap the child, get a secret ship ready and wet nurse, servants and guards to look after Aegon without anyone noticing. But at the same time Varys is insufficiently in control of the situation that he is surprised when Pycelle has the gates opened.

I find it an odd mix of knowledge and ignorance, power and powerlessness on Varys' part :dunno: .

[Errant Bard]

Yes, it could work like that, good point. I still think it's easier to just have the kid dying and Aegon to be a fake (or more to the point, probably a descendant of a Blackfyre. We heard of everyone but Shiera so far, so it might be time). Not like anyone has DNA tests around.

[Alexia]

Yes, it could work like that, good point. I still think it's easier to just have the kid dying and Aegon to be a fake (or more to the point, probably a descendant of a Blackfyre. We heard of everyone but Shiera so far, so it might be time). Not like anyone has DNA tests around.

I agree that the child is either a Blackfyre (quite possible) and/or Illyrio's child. I'd be genuinely surprised if we were to learn that Aegon is truly Rhaegar's son.

That being said, I think Varys must have known that the city would fall. Aerys opening the gates to Tywin was pure lunacy, but there was no way KL could hold out against the rebels. It was pretty much inevitable.

[Prince of the North]

Yeah, this is a great question to speculate about (like so many others). Right now, I'm basically down with the idea that Aegon is a Blackfyre (Illyrio and Sera's(?) son) and the plan to pass him off as Aegon Targaryen was conceived of within a year or two after the sack of KL.

Now, as to Varys's monologue to Kevin, I think it could be a case of Varys wanting to feed info to Illyrio. Varys and Illyrio are both old hands at the game and are probably smart enough to not trust each other completely. They would only trust each other insofar as their goals coincide. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to think Illyrio could be using the little birds to keep tabs on Varys even as they are spying for Varys (and, of course, Varys would know this). After all, Illyrio supplies them so he would have ample opportunity to manipulate them! Why would Varys want to keep Illyrio thinking his goal is the same? I'm just speculating, of course, but maybe it could be that Varys is really for Dany but he needs Illyrio to think he's for Aegon for awhile longer? Perhaps Varys is not ready to make whatever moves he's going to make and he still needs what Illyrio provides? I don't know and it kind of makes my head hurt but it's fun to think about :P

[Lummel]

Yes, it could work like that, good point. I still think it's easier to just have the kid dying and Aegon to be a fake (or more to the point, probably a descendant of a Blackfyre. We heard of everyone but Shiera so far, so it might be time). Not like anyone has DNA tests around.

I don't think that it's impossible for Aegon to be a targaryen, it's just that the alternative that he is some kind of fake seems a lot more straight forward and avoids all these odd complicated scenerios and the later odd problems like how Viserys and Dany are treated and why Barristan isn't kept with Aegon. The Blackfyre Aegon seems to explain the evidence best in my opinion.

I agree that the child is either a Blackfyre (quite possible) and/or Illyrio's child. I'd be genuinely surprised if we were to learn that Aegon is truly Rhaegar's son.

That being said, I think Varys must have known that the city would fall. Aerys opening the gates to Tywin was pure lunacy, but there was no way KL could hold out against the rebels. It was pretty much inevitable.

Likewise. But that fall looks inevitable to us, I wonder how it looked then? Had they received word of the defeat on the Trident? Were they expecting a Dornish Army to be arrive up from the South? Wouldn't a Targaryen loyalist have tried to rescue Elia and Rhaenys as well?

[Buried Treasure]

Oh for sure, but then you've got this scenario in which Varys believes the city may fall at some point, convinces Elia that it's dangerous enough to need to send Aegon away but not so dangerous for her and Rhaenys to need to go (or alternatively that they should be prepared to sacrifice themselves). Obviously Aerys is having them watched too closely for Elia to be able to escape but not so closely that Varys isn't able to swap the child, get a secret ship ready and wet nurse, servants and guards to look after Aegon without anyone noticing. But at the same time Varys is insufficiently in control of the situation that he is surprised when Pycelle has the gates opened.

I find it an odd mix of knowledge and ignorance, power and powerlessness on Varys' part :dunno: .

Which is one the reasons I favour 'Aegon died'. This is merely my second choice scenario.

To address your points, I think Elia would have perceived two dangers:-

1. Robert's forces might sack the city and kill the royal family, best to flee - but they can't because...

2. Aerys is paranoid. If Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon do not remain in Kings Landing he will send his remaining forces to try and track them down. Another child can take Aegons place, and Elia can keep him close enough that only a couple of servants need know. Rhaenys cannot be switched because it would be too obvious even if she kept mostly to her rooms. Nobody is keeping track of Varys so it is easy for him to come and go to make the switch.

[Alexia]

Likewise. But that fall looks inevitable to us, I wonder how it looked then? Had they received word of the defeat on the Trident? Were they expecting a Dornish Army to be arrive up from the South? Wouldn't a Targaryen loyalist have tried to rescue Elia and Rhaenys as well?

Huh. I had it in my head that they knew Rhaegar was dead, but now I'm not sure. Tywin didn't march until he knew, so I think it would stand to reason that they had received word too, wouldn't it?

The whole thing about Elia and Rhaenys is what makes me feel that Aegon isn't the real deal.

[Errant Bard]

Huh. I had it in my head that they knew Rhaegar was dead, but now I'm not sure. Tywin didn't march until he knew, so I think it would stand to reason that they had received word too, wouldn't it?

If Aerys knew, of course the others did too. They were glad for the Lannisters precisely because they knew Ned was coming. Then they were not.

[Eejit]

I don't think that it's impossible for Aegon to be a targaryen, it's just that the alternative that he is some kind of fake seems a lot more straight forward and avoids all these odd complicated scenerios and the later odd problems like how Viserys and Dany are treated and why Barristan isn't kept with Aegon. The Blackfyre Aegon seems to explain the evidence best in my opinion.

Actually it's all fairly consistent if in fact Varys was chiefly concerned with Aegon as The Prince That Was Promised [to save the realm] and desired that he be raised away from Mad Targs. Accept that assumption for the sake of argument and Varys' actions all make sense.

However I think it does have to be one of the two to make sense of what we currently know - either Blackfyre-loyalist Varys of TPTWP-loyalist Varys. Targ-loyalist doesn't cut it for me.

Some symbology and thematic hints seem to favour Blackfyre while TPTWP explains better his actions after Dany's dragons arrived imo - Varys either unsure which is AA or under the impression they somehow both are.

[Sasha Steelsong]

I happen to believe the Blackfyre theory mostly because even though I can see how a baby switch could have happened and the need for it (there is a practical sense to not keeping the heir and the King in the same city about to be beseiged or potentially incinerated - Varys might have had a clue about the wildfire it is hard to completely rule it out)...the only reason the switch works is because the kid's face was caved in and there is no way Varys could have planned that. However Varys is opportunistic enough to take full advantage of that opening to put his Blackfyre decendant in play as Aegon hidden abroad for his own good.

Now I know the argument that you could sub one baby for another and even if he had just been smothered gotten away with it because those looking at the body really wouldn't have known it was another baby (with the exception of Jamie and Varys, none of the people inspecting the prince's body would have gotten a good look at him in life) but that seems like such a risk, since if the lie wasn't bought it would start the hunt for Aegon immediately. And with Jamie around and his sister about to become Queen, I don't see Varys taking that kind of risk. Particularly if what he was really looking for was an opening for his Blackfyre and not genuine Targaryen succession.

[chrisdaw]

So? You sacrifice the princess for that? One would wonder what are your goals in that case... but they are really not "the children and the realm".

Let's replace this in context: Let's say Manderly decided to grab Rickon, but leave Catelyn to die, and Sansa/Arya too, you think he'd be doing it "for the children" or even for the Starks?

It's not like fleeing the realm and living is not a time-honoured tradition. Blackfire, Mormont, Dany, whatever. Let people search, meanwhile you'll not have killed two princesses to get hold of some kid that you really could have scooped off the street, for all the regard you hold the life of Targaryen dynasty members in.

It's not a sacrifrice, he either tricks the lannisters or everyone gets slaughtered, he needs a prince for his plan, nothing more.

A scenario he can engineer with any street urchin he can find.

Or he could use the real deal as the opportunity to do so presented itself, it cuts both ways.

[the average Other]

Wasn't Elia staying in Maegor's Holdfast with her kids? A.k.a. the only part of Red Keep that doesn't have any hidden passages. So how did Varys smuggle a baby in and out without anyone seeing, again?