Fighting Dragons: the truth about dany's invasion

[Surfer of Saragar]

I know that the great majority of people here are not military. But the thing is that I would like to know the opinion of the people here about the subject of a war involving dragons. Actually I want to your answer to the question: Having adult fighting dragons makes an army invincible?

I don’t think so. And that is why:

In “On War” Clausewitz says:

•War must never be seen as having any purpose in itself, but should be seen as an instrument of “Politik”--a German word that conflates the meanings of the English words policy and politics: "War is not merely a political act, but also a real political instrument, a continuation of political commerce, a carrying out of the same by other means.".

•The military objectives in war that support one's political objectives fall into two broad types: "war to achieve limited aims" and war to "disarm” the enemy: “to render [him] politically helpless or militarily impotent."

•All else being equal, the course of war will tend to favor the party with the stronger emotional and political motivations, but especially the defender.

That means you don’t have to win in the battlefield to win a war.

Modern military use the concept of fourth generation war (4GW):

•A 4GW enemy has the following characteristics: lacks hierarchal authority, lack of formal structure, patience and flexibility, ability to keep a low profile when needed, and small size. A 4GW adversary might use the tactics of an insurgent, terrorist or guerrilla in order to wage war against a nation's infrastructure. Fourth generation warfare takes place on all fronts: economical, political, the media, military, and civilian.

•Another characteristic of fourth generation warfare is that the forces are decentralized. With fourth generation warfare there may even be no single organization and that smaller groups organize into impromptu alliances to target a bigger threat (that being the state armed forces or another faction).

•Fourth generation warfare goals:

◦Survival

◦To convince the enemy’s political decision makers that their goals are either unachievable or too costly for the perceived benefit

•Yet another factor is that political centers of gravity have changed. These centers of gravity may revolve around nationalism, religion, or family or clan honor.

•Disaggregated forces, such as guerrillas, terrorists and rioters, lacking a center of gravity, deny to their enemies a focal point at which to deliver a conflict ending blow

So here is what I think:

When Aegon the conqueror invaded westeros he had not only Dragons on his side but also the lack of the knowledge of how to fight against dragons. The kings of westeros lined up their armies just to see then burn. But when Dany finally gets to westeros she will face a society that has already fought a war involving Dragons: the first Dance.

That said I don’t think Dany will have an easy time subjugating westeros. Especially the most independent regions like the North or the Iron Islands.

So I don’t understand the fear most people have of a Deus Ex Machina ending to the warfare in westeros with Dany imposing a dragon peace, having her vengeance upon the traitor’s houses and uniting westeros against the others.

That won’t happen, and we know that GRRM knows how a Fourth generation warfare conflict is fought, by the way he handled the Meereen situation.

What do you people think?

[Tourniquet]

There is no way that Westeros is in any sort of 4GW situation however. They still operated under the very

hierarchical

structure of a feudal society. The armies of Aegon's day are very similar to the one's in present day Westeros.

The people of Westeros, although having fought dragons before (no one living mind you), still do not know of any way to defeat them. The only forces that have practice in guerrilla warfare are the Dornish, and they are going to side with the Dany/Dragons. The rest of Westeros still have a VERY healthy fear of dragons and will likely bend the knee rather than take up arms.

[Lord Davos Seaworth]

Dalla: "Sorcery is like a sword without a hilt, there is no safe way to hold it"

Melisandre: "A sword without a hilt is better than no sword at all"

The dragons are a result of some sort of sorcery. We don't know all the secrets yet, but there is something magical about the dragons and the secrets of Old Valyria that just can't be compared to what we know in actual reality.

If you really want to make a comparison, maybe nukes=dragons? There is no safe way to hold nuclear weapons, it is dangerous for the states both with and without them. However because of their threat, the use of deterrence allows countries to stay in power.

[redraike]

Dany won't have to subjugate Westeros.

My theory is that the Others will sweep aside Westerosi society like a cold wind (of winter), and Dany will ride (dragons) to the rescue.

[bayrodney]

My belief is that Dany's story will be the ultimate tragedy (think Greek and Roman tragedy). Her Dragon's are just a facade of her power and will result to slaughter, capture, betreyal or sacrifice and will bring her no glories. GRRM always makes us think one thing and does the exact opposite. This story will not tie-up in a perfect bow (afterall, he's been quoted to say that the ending of ASOIAF will just be a lot of tombstones). The use of the word 'song' is capital with the Ice (Jon) and Fire (Dany) stories, in a broad sense, some songs are happy and some are sad, and this is their song through the lives they live.

[MikeDC]

I tend to agree with the OP. Another way to put it is gaining power on the backs of dragons will be easy. Keeping power wasn't easy for the original Targaryens or for Danny in Mereen. Add to this, Danny's developed a real aversion to needlessly immolating innocents.

That being said, the dragons aren't just a facade of power. They are Danny's power. Without them, she'd either be sitting around with all the other old crones in Dosh Kahleen, or enslaved, or dead.

[Cassius]

I cant remember which book its in but isnt it said that the North could have probably defeated Aegons dragons but decided the cost would be to high and so bent the knee instead?

[Lord Damian]

I cant remember which book its in but isnt it said that the North could have probably defeated Aegons dragons but decided the cost would be to high and so bent the knee instead?

I do not remember the book but I figured with the North's knowledge of the wall and the legends of the others and white walkers, they worked out an alliance/submission in exchange for support if the wall was in jeopardy, particularly with the assistance of the dragons.

[Miles Mayan]

Does anyone think Victarion will succeed in controlling a dragon with his horn? It would be cool to see two armies both with dragons fighting each other

[TheKindlyMan]

By the time Dany reaches Westeros, I am willing to assume that the Long Winter has probably been going on for at least a year. I think desperation, casualties from the War of the Five Kings (and the invasion of Aegon/JC/GC), and strange news from the North concerning the Others will make pretty much every house aside from Lannister, Tyrell, Bolton, and Frey (houses tied tightly to the current power structure), willing to lay down their swords rather than face dragons and further destruction.

I think the dragons are more important to the war against the Others than any war for the 7Ks.

Dany won't have to subjugate Westeros.

My theory is that the Others will sweep aside Westerosi society like a cold wind (of winter), and Dany will ride (dragons) to the rescue.

I think you're pretty close to the mark. My guess is that many of Dany's "children" repopulate much of Westeros below the Neck, and the Wildlings settle the Gift and much of the North...after a giant swathe of the current population is killed by the Others.

Westeros becomes the melting pot of TWOFAI, grows into the world's lone superpower/empire and setups up free trade agreements...'Murica!

[Arkash]

The dragons are the only thing in the world that could take the Eyrie... so I'm expecting an amazing scene out there!

Oh, except, that... I just remember... the Eyrie are empty for the winter... sorry...

[Bolivar]

What we know about Dragons is probably about to be turned upside down with the horn and Euron. And I'm not convinced Dany will be the savior, rather it would be intersting if her progression has been to make her the Great Other. But Martin promised we'll see more of what's going on in the Lands of Always Winter soon so maybe that will be separate.

I think the Wo5K only devastated a part of the realm and Varys and Illyrio were waiting for a larger war to prepare for Dany's invasion. I think Aegon's reign is what will finally bring in all of the Kingdoms into conflict, potentially with Essos as well.

[CrypticWeirwood]

I think Aegon's reign is what will finally bring in all of the Kingdoms into conflict, potentially with Essos as well.

Howso Essos?

[redraike]

And I'm not convinced Dany will be the savior, rather it would be intersting if her progression has been to make her the Great Other.

I suspect Melisandre will meet Dany at some point and realize that she is in fact Azor Ahai reborn. Stannis will likely be dead by this point.

But Martin promised we'll see more of what's going on in the Lands of Always Winter soon so maybe that will be separate.

Seems likely that will involve Bran

[Hedge Knight of Shatfield]

I believe that there is the potential to have different characters controlling dragons leading to an actual "dance with dragons" aka Dany, Victorian, Bran etc which could potentially lead all sorts of disasters including the dragons killing each other.

[BoldAsYouPlease]

Dalla: "Sorcery is like a sword without a hilt, there is no safe way to hold it"

Melisandre: "A sword without a hilt is better than no sword at all"

The dragons are a result of some sort of sorcery. We don't know all the secrets yet, but there is something magical about the dragons and the secrets of Old Valyria that just can't be compared to what we know in actual reality.

If you really want to make a comparison, maybe nukes=dragons? There is no safe way to hold nuclear weapons, it is dangerous for the states both with and without them. However because of their threat, the use of deterrence allows countries to stay in power.

IMHO the most appropriate comparison would be to three well-armed, modern attack helicopters - three flying, fire-breathing dragons would have about the same military impact against the middle-ages infantries and cavalries of Westeros. Short of magic dragon-deterrents, the only alternatives would be swift surrender or utter devastation, just like the first time.

[House Balstroko]

The most important thing with the dragons is that they provide air power, and so far we haven't seen anything that could counter flying creatures. So even a small contigent of dragons could greatly help the invasion, without facing opposition.

[Arthanis]

Question:

Who will Invade Westeros first?

Dany and her dragons, or the Others?

It is definitely going to be final conflict of the series.

[House Balstroko]

Question:

Who will Invade Westeros first?

Dany and her dragons, or the Others?

It is definitely going to be final conflict of the series.

Probably the Others, since Dany doesn't seem to be anywear near being ready to land on Westeros.

[iamthedave]

I suspect Melisandre will meet Dany at some point and realize that she is in fact Azor Ahai reborn. Stannis will likely be dead by this point.

Seems more likely to be Jon at this point, given Mel's visions and suchlike.

I think everyone needs to consider the maester's conspiracy. I daresay that they are making plans for getting rid of the dragons. There's a reason dragons aren't around anymore. People killed them. Who's likely to have the knowledge on how to do that, I wonder?