Fighting Dragons: the truth about dany's invasion

[MtnLion]

Seems more likely to be Jon at this point, given Mel's visions and suchlike. I think everyone needs to consider the maester's conspiracy. I daresay that they are making plans for getting rid of the dragons. There's a reason dragons aren't around anymore. People killed them. Who's likely to have the knowledge on how to do that, I wonder?

I keep going back to the previous war and thinking about the focal point that generated the war. We have Rhaegar and Lyanna eloping. Hmmm, they are both high enough born to realize the ramifications of that maneuver would have on their respective families. Did they send ravens with appropriate messages to appropriate parties to stave off a pending disaster? I would think so, but we know that the messages never arrived. Were the maesters the architects of the war that doomed the Targaryens? We know that at least one maester was urging expansionism on Lord Rickon. It certainly looks like all of the major houses (surroiunding the ruling seat) were being united against the ruling house, Stormlands, Riverlands, North, Vale ...

[Drogon's Personal Trainer]

Question:

Who will Invade Westeros first?

Dany and her dragons, or the Others?

It is definitely going to be final conflict of the series.

I think this is obvious. The entire story kicks off with the famous prologue of Waymar Royce and his lads against the Others/White Walkers. George hasn't put that prologue there for decoration. I would even go further - the whole Game of Thrones plot is just how proud men amuse themselves, whereas the real threat to civilisation itself lies beyond the Wall. They play at power games, but Westeros really needs to unite against the Others. I've even wondered (knowing George as we do) whether he would actually end the series with a victory for the Others. I hope he wouldn't do this, as we've invested too much time in our human characters.

I can't help thinking that in some way Dany's dragons will bring down the Wall and triumph against the others at the cost of her own life, and probably the dragons' lives too. They will then have served a wonderful purpose in destroying the Others, which were a threat to civilisation itself. As to who will sit the Iron Throne? I can even see that being melted down again by Drogon's flames - hence, destroyed. Then I can see an epilogue from Bran the Weirwood who can see past and future, and he can tell the tale to men in the future of a place that once was Westeros.

[Fredwin]

Most of the Westerosi don't even believe dragons exist, what would make you think they have the means to combat them?

History repeats itself. It's just like with the Others. A few generations pass and you forget about how dangerous foreign threats can be. I doubt there would even be an army to stand against the dragons this time around. War has decimated the continent for years now. The only really organized military presence in Westeros currently still in tact is the Golden Company or the Dornish. I guess you could count the new religious cult as well.

Euron/Victarion have the only known counter against the Dragons. Any information for fighting them or the Others would have to reside in the Citadel.

[feardeathbywater]

I don't know that the Westerosi are that helpless. A large number of them have now had experience fighting as part of an army. A lot of new commanders will have been blooded, quite a lot of know-how on logistics, maneuvering, scouting, dealing with the unexpected etc. accumulated across the board. Anyone who wanted to (and was able to afford to) put together an army now would have a much easier task, especially with the food situation that's going to develop very soon. Fighting dragons is an esoteric art, but if the Maesters are so dead set against their return I think they might give out a few hints to the defenders. Remember also that Dany's dragons are not as old as Aegon the Conqueror's, nor as deadly.

The Others are a more complicated threat. As long as you have fire available you can fight the Wights, but only one weapon seems to matter to the Others themselves, so conventional soldiers would have to be rearmed to face them.

Wouldn't it make more sense to have built at least the outside of the Wall from obsidian? If you had enough, I mean. Seems to work like silver to werewolves...

[Miriamele]

My belief is that Dany's story will be the ultimate tragedy (think Greek and Roman tragedy). Her Dragon's are just a facade of her power and will result to slaughter, capture, betreyal or sacrifice and will bring her no glories. GRRM always makes us think one thing and does the exact opposite. This story will not tie-up in a perfect bow (afterall, he's been quoted to say that the ending of ASOIAF will just be a lot of tombstones). The use of the word 'song' is capital with the Ice (Jon) and Fire (Dany) stories, in a broad sense, some songs are happy and some are sad, and this is their song through the lives they live.

Didn't GRRM say the ending will be bittersweet? It means to me that some characters we like will die but others will survive. I'm not sure that Dany is the one who has to die. Maybe she will sit th Iron throne in the end, but at a high cost for her.

[romantic]

Someone (I think Tyrion) said dragons were vulnerable at their eyes so there is some knowledge about how to stop a dragon. Most commoners in Westeros probably wouldn't care if Dany was ruler provided there was peace.

[TKO]

Does anyone think Victarion will succeed in controlling a dragon with his horn? It would be cool to see two armies both with dragons fighting each other

i predict that that the horn will fail and Victarions POV will end as he is apparantly killed, but somehow emerges later to have killed the dragon,

[getisine]

Anyone thought about other ways to control the dragons? I think Bran might control one of the dragons since he is a very powerful warg/greenseer... We also know Rickon is alive from one of Davos' parts in DWD, prehaps Starks could take back the North again if Dany manages to invade?

[redraike]

The Others are a more complicated threat. As long as you have fire available you can fight the Wights, but only one weapon seems to matter to the Others themselves, so conventional soldiers would have to be rearmed to face them.

The fact that they can raise the fallen to support their forces will crush the westerosi. For every warrior you lose, they gain a warrior.

[redraike]

Didn't GRRM say the ending will be bittersweet? It means to me that some characters we like will die but others will survive. I'm not sure that Dany is the one who has to die. Maybe she will sit th Iron throne in the end, but at a high cost for her.

Both sides of this war can raise the dead. It will be interesting to see who survives.

[feardeathbywater]

The fact that they can raise the fallen to support their forces will crush the westerosi. For every warrior you lose, they gain a warrior.

And with a single spark they lose that warrior again. They can't revive their own, so if you can keep the Others at bay the wights can be wiped out.

I suspect the Others don't actually need their wights, however. Oh, useful slaves to be sure, but hardly necessary for their war effort. One Other seems to be the equivalent of a dozen human warriors (at least), so long as none of them are fighting with dragonsteel or obsidian. No, I think the wights aren't so much soldiers as weapons...and once south of the wall the Others won't need them any more.

Is it ever mentioned if wights made an appearance in the War for the Dawn?

[Fredwin]

Knowing a Dragon's weak spot is it's eyes is not really very helpful. Dragonfire in ASOIAF is pretty potent stuff from what I can gather, and it's definetly magical. I don't believe you could ever hope to field archers them. We've read about what they did to Harenhal. I don't think there is any type of cover that could protect against it except maybe Valyrian steel. I suppose if you had advanced notice you could set up a wall of Ballistae but they would need to be arrayed precisely and you would only get 1shot

[Lord Spark of House Spark]

The most important thing with the dragons is that they provide air power, and so far we haven't seen anything that could counter flying creatures. So even a small contigent of dragons could greatly help the invasion, without facing opposition.

IMHO the most appropriate comparison would be to three well-armed, modern attack helicopters - three flying, fire-breathing dragons would have about the same military impact against the middle-ages infantries and cavalries of Westeros. Short of magic dragon-deterrents, the only alternatives would be swift surrender or utter devastation, just like the first time.

Air power is the key

empires are built by being able to overpower all opposition hard and fast.

The Mongols swept the world with superior horsemanship and archery, the British empire was built because the Royal Navy was the strongest on the seas for over a century, but withmachine guns, airpower and missiles, horses and even ships have become ineffective over time. Dragons are the ASOIAF version.

Incedently, empires are held together by trade, and Dani has made good contact6s with powerful people over a large area, and though she has upset a few alnog the way, the chance of profit always tempers anger in people in powerful positions, and should lead the way, combined with her massive military deterrent for a lasting global peace.

Probably not though

[Bolivar]

Her Dragon's are just a facade of her power and will result to slaughter, capture, betreyal or sacrifice and will bring her no glories. GRRM always makes us think one thing and does the exact opposite. This story will not tie-up in a perfect bow (afterall, he's been quoted to say that the ending of ASOIAF will just be a lot of tombstones).

^ Yes. At this point, I don't believe Dany is conquering Westeros atop dragons, or even saving everyone after The Others have invaded. At this point I'm starting to doubt she's ever leaving Essos.

Then again, there is supposed to be a second "Dance of the Dragons," but it certainly didn't happen in the book with the title referring to it, so I don't really know anymore.

[aryagonnakill]

To the person who started the topic, I have to somewhat disagree. Yes, a dragon would be relatively useless in a guerilla war, however a plane beats a tank, beats a boat, beats a company of infantry, beats a helicopter, beats it all. A black plane, at night, that is invulnerable to bullets accept in one small spot (eyes) could burn any castle to the ground without too much resistance. Given what we have seen of Westeros, if the lord got burned to a crisp in his castle, his people belong to Dany now.

[wolfmaid7]

While i believe that Dany may have some contact with the Others battle wise she is not going defeat them.They are an army with now direction and Jon will be the one to lead them back where they came from.

[Sailor's Wife]

Does anyone think Victarion will succeed in controlling a dragon with his horn? It would be cool to see two armies both with dragons fighting each other

[Sailor's Wife]

It is hard for me to imagine that Victarion might find anyone who can tolerate the dragon horn other than maybe his personal red priest. However, Dany has definitely shown tolerance to various dragon-related fire episodes--I see her using the dragon horn to reassemble her unruly babes and head to Westeros after the issues in Mereen are resolved. It will be interesting to see what happens when the kraken comes to her as foretold by Quaithe.

Found the separate forum related to ice dragons very interesting. Could that be what lives in the caves close to Hard Home or just in the far north land beyond the wall? Old Nan did tell stories, and some are certainly ringing true. Could they be controlled by wargs like Jon/Bran/Bloodraven? Or are they firmly on the side of the others? How about a fire dragon/ice dragon showdown? Or could they work together?

[Montey14]

I know that the great majority of people here are not military. But the thing is that I would like to know the opinion of the people here about the subject of a war involving dragons. Actually I want to your answer to the question: Having adult fighting dragons makes an army invincible?

I don’t think so. And that is why:

In “On War” Clausewitz says:

•War must never be seen as having any purpose in itself, but should be seen as an instrument of “Politik”--a German word that conflates the meanings of the English words policy and politics: "War is not merely a political act, but also a real political instrument, a continuation of political commerce, a carrying out of the same by other means.".

•The military objectives in war that support one's political objectives fall into two broad types: "war to achieve limited aims" and war to "disarm” the enemy: “to render [him] politically helpless or militarily impotent."

•All else being equal, the course of war will tend to favor the party with the stronger emotional and political motivations, but especially the defender.

That means you don’t have to win in the battlefield to win a war.

Modern military use the concept of fourth generation war (4GW):

•A 4GW enemy has the following characteristics: lacks hierarchal authority, lack of formal structure, patience and flexibility, ability to keep a low profile when needed, and small size. A 4GW adversary might use the tactics of an insurgent, terrorist or guerrilla in order to wage war against a nation's infrastructure. Fourth generation warfare takes place on all fronts: economical, political, the media, military, and civilian.

•Another characteristic of fourth generation warfare is that the forces are decentralized. With fourth generation warfare there may even be no single organization and that smaller groups organize into impromptu alliances to target a bigger threat (that being the state armed forces or another faction).

•Fourth generation warfare goals:

◦Survival

75]◦To convince the enemy’s political decision makers that their goals are either unachievable or too costly for the perceived benefit

•Yet another factor is that political centers of gravity have changed. These centers of gravity may revolve around nationalism, religion, or family or clan honor.

•Disaggregated forces, such as guerrillas, terrorists and rioters, lacking a center of gravity, deny to their enemies a focal point at which to deliver a conflict ending blow

So here is what I think:

When Aegon the conqueror invaded westeros he had not only Dragons on his side but also the lack of the knowledge of how to fight against dragons. The kings of westeros lined up their armies just to see then burn. But when Dany finally gets to westeros she will face a society that has already fought a war involving Dragons: the first Dance.

That said I don’t think Dany will have an easy time subjugating westeros. Especially the most independent regions like the North or the Iron Islands.

So I don’t understand the fear most people have of a Deus Ex Machina ending to the warfare in westeros with Dany imposing a dragon peace, having her vengeance upon the traitor’s houses and uniting westeros against the others.

That won’t happen, and we know that GRRM knows how a Fourth generation warfare conflict is fought, by the way he handled the Meereen situation.

What do you people think?

the notion of a guerilla type warfare has already been proven by the dornishmen.....as the stories say....when the dragons came....they went underground and the only thing the dragons scorhed was the sand....the Dornish finally came into the fold through marriage when one of their princesses married a Targarean. Although it would take an immense amount of courage to dtand up to 3 giant dragons and a horde of Dothraki .....but the template is already been made by the Dornish ...at least to hold out against hte might of dragons....

[Erls]

It is hard for me to imagine that Victarion might find anyone who can tolerate the dragon horn other than maybe his personal red priest. However, Dany has definitely shown tolerance to various dragon-related fire episodes--I see her using the dragon horn to reassemble her unruly babes and head to Westeros after the issues in Mereen are resolved. It will be interesting to see what happens when the kraken comes to her as foretold by Quaithe.

^^ This.

I don't know why people assume that Victarion can have someone else blow the dragon horn yet he would control the dragon. I would assume that only the person who blows the horn would have control of the dragon- yet not everyone can survive blowing the horn.

Daenerys, on the other hand, seems a likely candidate for being able to both blow the horn but also survive.