Greyscale returns to Westeros!

[Clariana]

Yes I think greyscale will be an issue.

I suspect GRR might be inspired by the four horsemen of the apocalypse, death, war, plague and famine... As someone pointed out epidemics have played an important part in contacts between civilizations throughout history... I sincerely don't think GRR will miss that chance.

We haven't quite got to famine yet but its hinted at, in AFFC Jaime notes there's been no planting, Stannis's men are beginning to resort to cannibalism.

[Mad Monkey]

Famine is definitely coming, especially in the wintertime. Tywin was made sure to devastate the Riverlands in the early part of the War of the Five Kings, which means that the odds of them having a harvest able to withstand a winter of indeterminate length is implausible. The Reach remains fertile but Euron is currently harrying them too which probably means that they will be a disruption in the food supply from there too.

[Citadel_acolyte]

What if Greyscale does come back in the North? The Others exist in the North. The Others can manipulate the dead. What if there is a connection between the dead, scarred flesh of childhood Greyscale, and the Others? How do the others actually make the Wights? Do Greyscale victims somehow attract the Others? Val's fear of Shireen might have some basis.

[Lord of the Twins]

I think there are three different kinds of Greyscale: The quick, epidemic one, the Grey Plage (Serra died due to an outbreak of Grey Plage), the slow, malign greyscale of the Stone Men, that killed Urrigon Greyjoy and affects Jon Connington now, and the benign greyscale of children, that is not always mortal.

Jon Connington's greyscale is the slow, non-epidemic version. It has always been around (think of Urrigon), and will probably not become epidemic, but it may infect Aegon and maybe some other important people of his retinue or who visit him (like Arianne).

Urrigon Greyjoy lost his fingers in the finger dance, the maester sewed them back on, and the wounds were infected, so the maester cut off his arm, but too late, and Urrigon still died. It was one of Balon's older brothers who died of greyscale as a child, while Lord Quellon was still alive.

That form of greyscale does not seem very infectious; Aegon's group worries about touching the stone men, not about them being near. Maybe it can mutate between the three types though. I think Shireen is immune in any case, but Jon Connington will inadvertently cause a plague.

[Pero the first of His name]

Dany will pee in the sources of every major river and heal the epidemic.

(lets hope the show does not overrun the book)

[Summah]

By the way, medieval leprosy was way more virulent than modern leprosy. Modern leprosy isn't very infectious, you need close contact for a lot of time to get infected, and some people can't get infected at all, while medieval leprosy was quite easier to catch. The disease itself hasn't changed, but most modern europeans apparently have a genetic mutation that makes them resistant to it. The mutant gene has spread to Asia and Africa too, but when isolated communities that still don't have the mutant gene get infected (like it happened in some indonesian, melanesian and polynesian islands), leprosy can become epidemic (remember Molokai).

It wasn't epidemic on Molokai, it was that people who became infected with leprosy on the other more populated islands (like Oahu) were forcibly moved to and isolated on a part of Molokai (that was mostly only accessible by ocean) that was turned into a leper colony, I don't think that the other part of Molokai had a higher rate of leprosy than the other Hawaiian islands, but yes I do seem to remember that a lot (but not all) of the people affected were native Hawaiians who had no natural immunity.

[WeirwoodTreeHugger]

It is possible that Jon Connington's greyscale could mutate into a more communicable and fast form. Cholera bacteria on its own isn't that dangerous because it doesn't reproduce that fast. It only becomes an epidemic when the bacteria swaps genetic with a virus that allows it to reproduce at lightning speed. There's always a chance that Connington comes into contact with some other bacterium or virus that allows the greyscale to turn into the grey death.

[Muggle]

i think vals reaction is important, Everything that is put in the story is carefully planned by GRRM, its holds some significance.

the only useless over reacting fretting i see that can be passed off as nonsense is done by the dorhaki,

[Ser Lepus]

It wasn't epidemic on Molokai, it was that people who became infected with leprosy on the other more populated islands (like Oahu) were forcibly moved to and isolated on a part of Molokai (that was mostly only accessible by ocean) that was turned into a leper colony, I don't think that the other part of Molokai had a higher rate of leprosy than the other Hawaiian islands, but yes I do seem to remember that a lot (but not all) of the people affected were native Hawaiians who had no natural immunity.

The reason they created that leper colony in Molokai was because leprosy spred amazingly fast among the polynesians, so fast that it was decided that the best way to keep the infected isolated was to send them all there. When the portuguese arrived to Indonesia they already noticed that the population of Timor and Flores seemed awfully vulnerable to leprosy. The people from eastern Indonesia, Papua, Micronesia, Melanesia and Polynesia are vulnerable to the disease due to their relative isolation.

[Arkash]

It's gonna be hell in Westeros if it's struck by an epidemy of greyscale.

That being said, I think JC's gs serves only the purpose to make him suicidal or to drive him to his death, I'm not sure he'll infect a lot of people.

[joluoto2]

Shouldn't Westeros already have had countless of Greyscales epidemics? There are several busy harbors in Westeros that's visited By Essosi sailors and merchants, and some of them have to have had Greyscales.