Varys the Mastermind/ Littlefinger the Golddigger: A Comparison

[butterbumps!]

A "Varys/Bloodraven" comparison thread might be cool once we get more info on Bloodraven.

As luck would have it, Tze is writing up an essay on those comparisons! So stay tuned...

What I'm personally curious to read more about is his role during Bob's rebellion. Why did Varys "poison" Aerys' ears about Rhaegar (this indicates he was plotting against the Targs), and why did he then advise Aerys not to open the KL gates to Tywin (this indicates he wanted Aerys alive)?

Once we have more info on that his (future) actions is going to be much more clear to us.

Well, see, this is one of those questions that has me believing in something beyond political ends, though this might be the "easy answer." What we know seems to point to Varys working toward creating discord between Aerys and Rhaegar. If we take this as truth, it could mean he wanted Rhaegar to replace Aerys or it could mean he simply wanted the Targs to destroy themselves. Rhaegar was already dead by the time the question of opening the gates came up, so Rhaegar at least was not in his calculus at that point. So now there's the variables of Aerys + Rhaegar's children.

That he counseled against opening the gates could be a simple issue of "needing more time" for something yet unknown, but that he otherwise did want the Targs destroyed; this would make sense with what we know of his and Illyrio's plans in terms of raising a likely Blackfyre. But this doesn't add up yet, and perhaps in my quest for finding continuity/ logic, I end up wondering what he might know of this PtwP business-- that is, his goal was to secure a likely figure from Aerys and Rhaella's line, that he might have thought this was Rhaegar, and then transferred this belief to Rhaegar's kids, and by extension, there's something else he's up to since "Aegon" would be a feint. But this seems crazy, and I can't really say I subscribe to it, since I think we're missing some pieces that might point against this.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

That he counseled against opening the gates could be a simple issue of "needing more time" for something yet unknown, but that he otherwise did want the Targs destroyed; this would make sense with what we know of his and Illyrio's plans in terms of raising a likely Blackfyre. But this doesn't add up yet, and perhaps in my quest for finding continuity/ logic, I end up wondering what he might know of this PtwP business-- that is, his goal was to secure a likely figure from Aerys and Rhaella's line, that he might have thought this was Rhaegar, and then transferred this belief to Rhaegar's kids, and by extension, there's something else he's up to since "Aegon" would be a feint. But this seems crazy, and I can't really say I subscribe to it, since I think we're missing some pieces that might point against this.

It could be as easy as Varys increasing the chance for a bloody sacking that creates resentment against Lannister/Stark/Baratheon or offered him the chance for mischief with Rhaegars children. A city that yields often gets off comparatively easy, and Ned wouldn't have killed Rhaegars children if the city was yielded to him.

Tywin sacked the city nonetheless, but Varys couldn't know for sure.

[redviper9]

As luck would have it, Tze is writing up an essay on those comparisons! So stay tuned...

Excellent! Very much looking forwerd to it...

That he counseled against opening the gates could be a simple issue of "needing more time" for something yet unknown, but that he otherwise did want the Targs destroyed; this would make sense with what we know of his and Illyrio's plans in terms of raising a likely Blackfyre. But this doesn't add up yet, and perhaps in my quest for finding continuity/ logic, I end up wondering what he might know of this PtwP business-- that is, his goal was to secure a likely figure from Aerys and Rhaella's line, that he might have thought this was Rhaegar, and then transferred this belief to Rhaegar's kids, and by extension, there's something else he's up to since "Aegon" would be a feint. But this seems crazy, and I can't really say I subscribe to it, since I think we're missing some pieces that might point against this.

It could be as easy as Varys increasing the chance for a bloody sacking that creates resentment against Lannister/Stark/Baratheon or offered him the chance for mischief with Rhaegars children. A city that yields often gets off comparatively easy, and Ned wouldn't have killed Rhaegars children if the city was yielded to him.

Tywin sacked the city nonetheless, but Varys couldn't know for sure.

A question just popped into my mind: did Varys know about Aerys's plan to burn King's Landing down via wildfire? We know from Jaime's POV that the only people Aerys told were Rossart and a couple of other pyromancers (Jaime was told indirectly since he was guarding the room). I would be shocked if the little birds didn't hear the plan and report back. How could that have factored into Varys's actions as the rebel hosts approached King's Landing?

[ab aeterno]

It could be as easy as Varys increasing the chance for a bloody sacking that creates resentment against Lannister/Stark/Baratheon or offered him the chance for mischief with Rhaegars children. A city that yields often gets off comparatively easy, and Ned wouldn't have killed Rhaegars children if the city was yielded to him.

Tywin sacked the city nonetheless, but Varys couldn't know for sure.

A question just popped into my mind: did Varys know about Aerys's plan to burn King's Landing down via wildfire? We know from Jaime's POV that the only people Aerys told were Rossart and a couple of other pyromancers (Jaime was told indirectly since he was guarding the room). I would be shocked if the little birds didn't hear the plan and report back. How could that have factored into Varys's actions as the rebel hosts approached King's Landing?

He couldn't have known for sure that Tywin would sack it but it must have been pretty obvious that he was coming as an enemy. You don't sit out an entire war and then come to help the king after his army has been defeated and the war is over for all intents and purposes. Perhaps Varys' reason in counciling Aerys not to open the gates was to prevent Aerys blowing the city up, not expecting that Jaime would stop it.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

He couldn't have known for sure that Tywin would sack it but it must have been pretty obvious that he was coming as an enemy. You don't sit out an entire war and then come to help the king after his army has been defeated and the war is over for all intents and purposes. Perhaps Varys' reason in counciling Aerys not to open the gates was to prevent Aerys blowing the city up, not expecting that Jaime would stop it.

Well, yes, but a friendly takeover, no one harmed, wouldn't breed resentment like the Sack did. KL hates the Lannisters for it and it's easy to whip KL into a riot - easy pickings for everybody else. Similar for raping Elia with her toddlers brains on the hands.

The brutal way Tywin sacked KL and butchered Elia and her children wasn't foreseeable (or at least to be taken for granted).

[ab aeterno]

Well, yes, but a friendly takeover, no one harmed, wouldn't breed resentment like the Sack did. KL hates the Lannisters for it and it's easy to whip KL into a riot - easy pickings for everybody else. Similar for raping Elia with her toddlers brains on the hands.

The brutal way Tywin sacked KL and butchered Elia and her children wasn't foreseeable (or at least to be taken for granted).

I agree that he couldn't take it for granted, though I wonder if it was, if not forseeable, then at least something that Varys would have considered. Doesn't Jon Con mention something along the lines of how Tywin would have burnt the whole city to the ground during the Battle of the Bells? And Varys would presumably understand that Tywin would be looking to prove his loyalty to the rebels. That doesn't necessarily explain the sack, but it could give someone an indication about Elia, Aegon and Rhaenys.

[Lord Varys]

If Varys really wanted to destroy the Targaryens back during Aerys's reign he did a very poor job. It took Robert's Rebellion to deal with Aerys and Rhaegar, and everything we know does not indicate that Varys was behind this whole thing as well. Theoretically it's possible that Varys counseled Aerys to demand the heads of Eddard and Robert as well after he had already executed Rickard and Brandon Stark, but this has never been hinted as of yet. The whole background of the Rebellion grew independently of Varys since he cannot have been involved in this whole Rhaegar-Lyanna-thing which eventually led to the execution of the Rickard and Brandon.

If there is anything to the paranoia and madness of Aerys II (and apparently there is) then many (if not all) of Aerys's irrational and mad decisions were made due to his madness, not because he listened to Varys. The stuff about Varys fueling Aerys's madness by naming more and more (supposed) traitors are presented to us through Stannis (who got his knowledge from Barristan Selmy) and young Jaime. Both of them hold people like Varys in contempt, and both of them seem to be unwilling (or unable) to see Varys's true face behind his mask as slimy, cowardly spy master. Considering how mad and paranoid Aerys got towards the end, it's very likely that Varys was forced to provide Aerys with lists of traitors to save his own life. He had to appear useful to Aerys, or else he might have been killed himself. One might assume Varys would have been aware beforehand if Aerys wanted to get rid of him, but you cannot be completely sure when dealing with a madman. Varys would not have been able to do anything about it if Aerys had decided on a whim during a council session to blame for everything that has happened. And killing Aerys seems to have become surprisingly difficult towards the end as well. GRRM confirmed that he did not allow any blades in his presences besides those of the Kingsguard, that he grew haggard due to the fact that he ate very much to reduce the risk of being poisoned.

But anyway, both young Jaime and Barristan Selmy are completely unfit to describe to us the true motivations and goals Varys might have had back during Aerys's time. As to Varys trying to create a rift between Aerys and Rhaegar:

That makes little sense. If Varys told Aerys about Rhaegar's attempts to use the Tourney of Harrenhal as a pretext to plot with numerous lords behind his back, then the fact that Varys told Aerys about this prevented an open conflict between father and son. Whatever Rhaegar was trying to accomplish (and that he was trying to create an alliance against his father seems to fact now) it would have meant war. Not everyone was at Harrenhal - Lord Tywin was not, for instance - and there would have always been those lords who would keep a foot in each camp if it came to war, and those who would try to buy the king's favor by telling him about Rhaegar's plans. Ser Kevan reveals that Tywin and he still hoped that Aerys would recall Tywin as Hand even after the Battle of the Bells! When even Tywin remained this long a Targaryen loyalist at heart, I'm quite sure that many and more lords would have sticked to their rightful king instead of the rebellious prince. And if my assessment of the situation is correct, Varys would have had nothing/little to gain from warning Aerys about Rhaegar's plans. Instead he should have waited until Rhaegar had gone to far to go back, and then put Aerys into a military position that prevented Rhaegar from taking over the Realm in instant, thus plunging Westeros into a Targaryen civil war to end the reign of the dynasty. But he did nothing of this sort, and the whole assumption that Varys wanted to do such a thing at this particular time makes no sense at all because he apparently had no straw man to claim the empty Iron Throne. If Varys had a Blackfyre pretender (Illyrio, for instance) already in place when the Rebellion broke out, why on earth did he and Illyrio not make their move back then. The Realm was fighting a civil war, the Golden Company could have come to Westeros just as it did with Aegon in ADwD. And their chances would have been even better if the Golden Company had feigned loyalty to Aerys/Rhaegar (or Robert's coalition) when in fact they were only coming to make their own moves...

On the birds:

Yes, it's entirely possible that Varys ends up killing them. But that's by no means sure, if I remember correctly Varys is asking Illyrio for younger ones that are better trained 'and don't die so easily'. That would mean older children tend to be more involved in accidents while going about their spy business. I'm not so sure that all the birds have to be small children. This would mean that Maegor the Cruel had already Varys's bird system in mind when he designed the Red Keep with its secret passages and listening posts. Somehow I doubt that, and I'm quite convinced that many listening posts can be manned by adults as well. It is also striking that Varys seems to lack a staff of lieutenants/administrators. He is the head of the secret police of Westeros, yet he appears to be head of a branch of the government that is made up out of himself, and some guys the Crown pays for information. There is no middle management, there are no department heads, and no agents in the field. If the little birds are not killed, they might very well work in those capacities, down in Varys's secret base of operations where he met with Illyrio (this base seems to be down within that well from where Varys and Illyrio were ascending when Arya overheard them in AGoT). Someone has to look through all the reports of the little birds, and through all the reports Varys gets from all over the world. The man cannot be everywhere, and it's ridiculous to assume that he is doing all those things by himself, especially since he seems to be everywhere while doing all this time-intense loads of work. Littlefinger is a workaholic as well, but he has a staff. So where is Varys's staff?

The fact that Varys keeps it a secret how his whole spy network works exactly (especially from his superiors, at least during the Baratheon/Lannister regimes), strongly indicates that he does not want his superiors to know or meet the people he works with. This would make most sense if many of his trusted lieutenants/secretaries were former little birds who are now entrusted with running the day-to-day routine of the spy network within KL. And I'm quite sure we'll get more and more insight into this whole thing. We only met the first little birds in the Epilogue of ADwD, they and Varys will return, especially if Aegon ends up on the Iron Throne in TWoW, and Varys steps out into the open again.

On the warning thing:

Not sure if warning Aerys about Tywin would/could prevent Aerys from burning the city (and yes, we have to assume Varys knew about that plan). If Aerys had listened to Varys, and kept the gates closed, Tywin would have tried to take the city by force instead (he would have to do it, since he had to take the city before the Baratheon troops arrived to prove his loyalty to Robert!), which would have given Aerys much more time to put his wild fire plan in motion. The Sack took Aerys and the city by surprise, and thus reduced the time frame considerably during which Rossart and Aerys could pull it off.

[Lummel]

Fifty is rather a lot of children. I do wonder if the older ones are sent out to work as spies, presumably in the guise of servants, to other places.

[butterbumps!]

On the birds:

Yes, it's entirely possible that Varys ends up killing them. But that's by no means sure, if I remember correctly Varys is asking Illyrio for younger ones that are better trained 'and don't die so easily'. That would mean older children tend to be more involved in accidents while going about their spy business. I'm not so sure that all the birds have to be small children. This would mean that Maegor the Cruel had already Varys's bird system in mind when he designed the Red Keep with its secret passages and listening posts. Somehow I doubt that, and I'm quite convinced that many listening posts can be manned by adults as well. It is also striking that Varys seems to lack a staff of lieutenants/administrators. He is the head of the secret police of Westeros, yet he appears to be head of a branch of the government that is made up out of himself, and some guys the Crown pays for information. There is no middle management, there are no department heads, and no agents in the field. If the little birds are not killed, they might very well work in those capacities, down in Varys's secret base of operations where he met with Illyrio (this base seems to be down within that well from where Varys and Illyrio were ascending when Arya overheard them in AGoT). Someone has to look through all the reports of the little birds, and through all the reports Varys gets from all over the world. The man cannot be everywhere, and it's ridiculous to assume that he is doing all those things by himself, especially since he seems to be everywhere while doing all this time-intense loads of work. Littlefinger is a workaholic as well, but he has a staff. So where is Varys's staff?

The fact that Varys keeps it a secret how his whole spy network works exactly (especially from his superiors, at least during the Baratheon/Lannister regimes), strongly indicates that he does not want his superiors to know or meet the people he works with. This would make most sense if many of his trusted lieutenants/secretaries were former little birds who are now entrusted with running the day-to-day routine of the spy network within KL. And I'm quite sure we'll get more and more insight into this whole thing. We only met the first little birds in the Epilogue of ADwD, they and Varys will return, especially if Aegon ends up on the Iron Throne in TWoW, and Varys steps out into the open again.

I agree that some are likely promoted to "staff" as you suggest, but I think the implication is strong that a good many of them are killed. I get the sense that a bevy of mutes running around would raise suspicions (unless they retire from service on Euron's Silence I suppose).

So you think that Varys is actually trying to achieve peace in the realm?

[Little Wing]

Well, see, this is one of those questions that has me believing in something beyond political ends, though this might be the "easy answer." What we know seems to point to Varys working toward creating discord between Aerys and Rhaegar. If we take this as truth, it could mean he wanted Rhaegar to replace Aerys or it could mean he simply wanted the Targs to destroy themselves. Rhaegar was already dead by the time the question of opening the gates came up, so Rhaegar at least was not in his calculus at that point. So now there's the variables of Aerys + Rhaegar's children.

That he counseled against opening the gates could be a simple issue of "needing more time" for something yet unknown, but that he otherwise did want the Targs destroyed; this would make sense with what we know of his and Illyrio's plans in terms of raising a likely Blackfyre. But this doesn't add up yet, and perhaps in my quest for finding continuity/ logic, I end up wondering what he might know of this PtwP business-- that is, his goal was to secure a likely figure from Aerys and Rhaella's line, that he might have thought this was Rhaegar, and then transferred this belief to Rhaegar's kids, and by extension, there's something else he's up to since "Aegon" would be a feint. But this seems crazy, and I can't really say I subscribe to it, since I think we're missing some pieces that might point against this.

All of this made me think that Varys counseled against opening the gates because he was somehow sure Tywin won't allow for Rhaegar's children to be kept alive... and so, could the line "for the children...for the realm..." mean "for Rhaegar's children"?

[the Scorpion Knight]

All of this made me think that Varys counseled against opening the gates because he was somehow sure Tywin won't allow for Rhaegar's children to be kept alive... and so, could the line "for the children...for the realm..." mean "for Rhaegar's children"?

considering the reynes and the tarbecks highly likely

[Bright Blue Eyes]

On the birds:

Yes, it's entirely possible that Varys ends up killing them. But that's by no means sure, if I remember correctly Varys is asking Illyrio for younger ones that are better trained 'and don't die so easily'. That would mean older children tend to be more involved in accidents while going about their spy business. I'm not so sure that all the birds have to be small children. This would mean that Maegor the Cruel had already Varys's bird system in mind when he designed the Red Keep with its secret passages and listening posts. Somehow I doubt that, and I'm quite convinced that many listening posts can be manned by adults as well. It is also striking that Varys seems to lack a staff of lieutenants/administrators. He is the head of the secret police of Westeros, yet he appears to be head of a branch of the government that is made up out of himself, and some guys the Crown pays for information. There is no middle management, there are no department heads, and no agents in the field. If the little birds are not killed, they might very well work in those capacities, down in Varys's secret base of operations where he met with Illyrio (this base seems to be down within that well from where Varys and Illyrio were ascending when Arya overheard them in AGoT). Someone has to look through all the reports of the little birds, and through all the reports Varys gets from all over the world. The man cannot be everywhere, and it's ridiculous to assume that he is doing all those things by himself, especially since he seems to be everywhere while doing all this time-intense loads of work. Littlefinger is a workaholic as well, but he has a staff. So where is Varys's staff?

The fact that Varys keeps it a secret how his whole spy network works exactly (especially from his superiors, at least during the Baratheon/Lannister regimes), strongly indicates that he does not want his superiors to know or meet the people he works with. This would make most sense if many of his trusted lieutenants/secretaries were former little birds who are now entrusted with running the day-to-day routine of the spy network within KL. And I'm quite sure we'll get more and more insight into this whole thing. We only met the first little birds in the Epilogue of ADwD, they and Varys will return, especially if Aegon ends up on the Iron Throne in TWoW, and Varys steps out into the open again.

I'm not sure whether Varys wouldn't be able to do all that himself. His network isn't the CIA, It seems to be limited to the Red Keep and KL itself, some few agents like Jorah Mormont sending a report every few months and checking for rumours in the taverns. That should be administrable for one guy alone.

[ab aeterno]

I'm not sure whether Varys wouldn't be able to do all that himself. His network isn't the CIA, It seems to be limited to the Red Keep and KL itself, some few agents like Jorah Mormont sending a report every few months and checking for rumours in the taverns. That should be administrable for one guy alone.

This is a good point, and assuming that Varys is being relatively truthful, he does tell Tyrion (I think,) at one point that he hasn't heard from any of this contacts in the North for some time. I can't remember the time frame of this comment though.

[butterbumps!]

All of this made me think that Varys counseled against opening the gates because he was somehow sure Tywin won't allow for Rhaegar's children to be kept alive... and so, could the line "for the children...for the realm..." mean "for Rhaegar's children"?

It's something that's been tossed out-- that "the children" refer to Rhaegar's-- but I'm somewhat vexed as to how this would be compatible with this "Aegon" business, as not being Rhaegar's son makes this Aegon highly unlikely to be a PtwP candidate, and as Varys' plant, he would know that better than anyone. I've seen some arguments using this as "proof" for Aegon's legitimacy, but I don't think that works either. In terms of non-magical/ prophesy aspects, I also question whether he'd feel the rage for the treatment of Rhaegar's kids in the way the Martells would, which your substitution of "for Rhaegar's children" reminds me of.

[Lummel]

I'm not sure whether Varys wouldn't be able to do all that himself. His network isn't the CIA, It seems to be limited to the Red Keep and KL itself, some few agents like Jorah Mormont sending a report every few months and checking for rumours in the taverns. That should be administrable for one guy alone.

He has other informants too. When he reports Renly's death he mentions reports from a groom, a washerwoman and several men at arms. It could be he has one agent in Renly's camp who is collecting these stories but apparently he has people in places beyond king's landing too.

[Little Wing]

It's something that's been tossed out-- that "the children" refer to Rhaegar's-- but I'm somewhat vexed as to how this would be compatible with this "Aegon" business, as not being Rhaegar's son makes this Aegon highly unlikely to be a PtwP candidate, and as Varys' plant, he would know that better than anyone. I've seen some arguments using this as "proof" for Aegon's legitimacy, but I don't think that works either. In terms of non-magical/ prophesy aspects, I also question whether he'd feel the rage for the treatment of Rhaegar's kids in the way the Martells would, which your substitution of "for Rhaegar's children" reminds me of.

Maybe V is not a eunuch and Rhaegar's children were Varys'! :o Okay, I'll stop now... :leaving:

[Scipio Africanus]

But anyway, both young Jaime and Barristan Selmy are completely unfit to describe to us the true motivations and goals Varys might have had back during Aerys's time. As to Varys trying to create a rift between Aerys and Rhaegar:

And this is a bit of a problem in your arguements. You're argueing Barristan and Jaime are totally imcompetant to relate a reliable retelling of the events when Varys was "poisoning" Aerys' ears.

While you're correct in that they both can't gauge Varys' motivations for doing so, there's no reason why both wouldn't remember what happened at small council meetings. Barristan sat at Bob's council meeting when Eddard was hand, and we know KGs (particulairly Aerys Oakheart) liked to evesdrop on meetings, private or no. In other words they would've heard much more then john doe on the streets what Varys was saying to Aerys.

It could very well be that Varys was telling about Rhaegar's actions (true or no) to Aerys. But what motivation Varys had to do so remains a mystery. Barristan interpeted it as poisoning, but that does not mean to see he's totally nuts or has warped his memories - it could very well be Varys (for whatever reason) was indeed driving a rift between Aerys and Rhaegar.

I personally think butterbumps! is right and that Varys didn't want Aerys dead (yet) after Rhaegar died. I don't think Varys is working to a Targ restoration - till we know more about his role back then he could've indeed had another strawman back then waiting to step up to the throne.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

He has other informants too. When he reports Renly's death he mentions reports from a groom, a washerwoman and several men at arms. It could be he has one agent in Renly's camp who is collecting these stories but apparently he has people in places beyond king's landing too.

Yes, I said he had a few agents outside KL. Renleys camp is definitely in the top 5 to place one, and Renleys death important enough to send a letter.

But just to pull some numbers from the air, twenty letters per year and kingdom is easily handable by Varys himself - that isn't even a full one per day! And it may be way above the real number.

Until now, we have two reports from outside KL: Dany and Renley. No Robb, no Balon, no Lysa, no Doran, or somebody important else. Considering the expenses of sending messages across half the world, I doubt that Varys has many agents abroad. He seems to rely more on sifting rumours, and even more on surveilling the center of power in KL.

[butterbumps!]

Until now, we have two reports from outside KL: Dany and Renley. No Robb, no Balon, no Lysa, no Doran, or somebody important else. Considering the expenses of sending messages across half the world, I doubt that Varys has many agents abroad. He seems to rely more on sifting rumours, and even more on surveilling the center of power in KL.

Doran cautions that care should be taken, as Vary's network is limitless. Doran seems to think that Varys has plants in Dorne, so maybe we just haven't heard about what these other spies are telling him.

[Groat]

Until now, we have two reports from outside KL: Dany and Renley. No Robb, no Balon, no Lysa, no Doran, or somebody important else. Considering the expenses of sending messages across half the world, I doubt that Varys has many agents abroad. He seems to rely more on sifting rumours, and even more on surveilling the center of power in KL.

I believe he tells Cersei that his sources at Dargonstone stopped sending him info about Stannis's moves, so he has people at Dargonstone too.