Varys the Mastermind/ Littlefinger the Golddigger: A Comparison

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Doran cautions that care should be taken, as Vary's network is limitless. Doran seems to think that Varys has plants in Dorne, so maybe we just haven't heard about what these other spies are telling him.

Possible. Or Doran is just careful.

I believe he tells Cersei that his sources at Dargonstone stopped sending him info about Stannis's moves, so he has people at Dargonstone too.

And another place in the top 5 interesting ones.

But a report from, let's say Bear Island? Still in the top 100 or top 200 most interesting places. Not a whisper. Not a whisper about the situation at the Wall. Up until now, Varys has shown reports from agents surveilling kings and queens contending for the Iron Throne, and barely half of them.

[ab aeterno]

And another place in the top 5 interesting ones.

But a report from, let's say Bear Island? Still in the top 100 or top 200 most interesting places. Not a whisper. Not a whisper about the situation at the Wall. Up until now, Varys has shown reports from agents surveilling kings and queens contending for the Iron Throne, and barely half of them.

The question for me is, knowing that Varys apparently has agents on Dragonstone, in the North (though apparently not at the Wall, as you say,) how does he communicate with them? Presumably they can't send ravens. Even if he could use magic now how did he do it before?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

The question for me is, knowing that Varys apparently has agents on Dragonstone, in the North (though apparently not at the Wall, as you say,) how does he communicate with them? Presumably they can't send ravens. Even if he could use magic now how did he do it before?

I'd guess letters by ship. Takes a few weeks, is fucking expensive, is unreliable, can be read by everybody (who is literate) if it isn't encrypted (and that would need not only a literate spy, which are already quite rare, but also well versed in encryption).

[butterbumps!]

The question for me is, knowing that Varys apparently has agents on Dragonstone, in the North (though apparently not at the Wall, as you say,) how does he communicate with them? Presumably they can't send ravens. Even if he could use magic now how did he do it before?

We have no indication that this is the case, but logically, he might have an actual raven network, where he entrusts the birds to his spies who send messages back and forth from locations outside of castles, and thus bypass the maesters. Would bring new meaning to his "birds."

[Bright Blue Eyes]

We have no indication that this is the case, but logically, he might have an actual raven network, where he entrusts the birds to his spies who send messages back and forth from locations outside of castles, and thus bypass the maesters. Would bring new meaning to his "birds."

I can't imagine that. It would be a) really fucking expensive, B) really fucking obvious, c) need a really fucking big infrastructure and d) he would need to filch a lot of ravens from the Citadel, and they couldn't be trained on Pycelle's rookery.

Not sustainable.

[Scipio Africanus]

Doran cautions that care should be taken, as Vary's network is limitless. Doran seems to think that Varys has plants in Dorne, so maybe we just haven't heard about what these other spies are telling him.

For one, I don't think Varys' network is limitless. Two, just because it doesn't get mentioned doesn't mean Varys has no agent in a particulair territory. His network seems varied, from men-at-arms to servants. However they fill in their roles as informers not agents.

Back to one. Varys did not know any of LF's moves after he left for the Vale. If he did he would've found out about Sansa. It is only now that the Mad Mouse guy has entered LF's service that we now know for certain that he has at least one agent at LF's court. So it isn't like he has eyes and ears everywhere all the time. I doubt he ever had much info in Robb's entourage or what was going down on the Iron Isles. The Wall is a bit more tricky, he might've been in contact with Bowen Marsh (on the Lannister's behalf), as Cercei apparantly knows quite well who that guy is.

Two. But it works both ways. Just because it's not mentioned doesn't mean Varys has no agents in all the regions. But they either have no good info, or Varys choses not to mention it, or nobody asks him what's going down over there.

It does beg the question how he's managing all his little birds (his true agents) and informers. There must be a lot of info coming in and somehow he must pay all his informers for the info. There must be middle-men or two active on Varys' behalf. Also I'd imagine it would be harder to trace the information stream back to Varys if there are more people involved then just him, so I reckon he'd like that.

It also would explain how he communicates with the informers. While he may deal with his little birds personally, I imagine he only does deals with the middle-men and lets them pay informers.

[ab aeterno]

It also would explain how he communicates with the informers. While he may deal with his little birds personally, I imagine he only does deals with the middle-men and lets them pay informers.

I think this is a promising line of thought, but Ser Dontos at least tells Sansa that Varys pays his informers (implying that Varys either pays him or Moon Boy,) which suggests that Varys either doesn't always us a middle man of doesn't care for secrecy from his middle men all the time.

[butterbumps!]

oh-- or option 2: Varys does use the rookery at KL. Pycelle seems to know something about Varys. He tells Tyrion that he knows things about "the eunuch that would chill [his] blood." I could see it being the case that Varys has blackmailed Pycelle into letting he or his birds use the rookery and to keep silent about Varys' network. So I wonder if Pycelle could know something about it. But I think his spies are using off-site locations from which to send messages. This could explain why Pycelle is so afraid of Varys.

I can't imagine that. It would be a) really fucking expensive, B) really fucking obvious, c) need a really fucking big infrastructure and d) he would need to filch a lot of ravens from the Citadel, and they couldn't be trained on Pycelle's rookery.

Not sustainable.

1. I don't think Varys lacks for funds-- look at how rich Illyrio is, and consider that Varys is just as wealthy as they're business partners.

2. If it's so obvious, how come I haven't seen it suggested before :cool4:

3. It doesn't need much infrastructure-- all you need to do is train the ravens how to home.

4. Pycelle may have been blackmailed into allowing this to happen. Varys seems to be holding something over him. We've established he's got probably thousands of grown "birds" around that might not have been killed, so maybe they're training the ravens. Or maybe Bloodraven's sending them, lol (joke, joke....well, half joking)

A raven is significantly faster than a ship, and for men like Illyrio and Varys, I think time is money. It's a worthwhile investment to take the raven route.

For one, I don't think Varys' network is limitless. Two, just because it doesn't get mentioned doesn't mean Varys has no agent in a particulair territory. His network seems varied, from men-at-arms to servants. However they fill in their roles as informers not agents.

I don't think Varys' network is limitless either-- I think Doran thinks it is.

I don't think we'd have seen Varys discussing any of those things you mention with any of the characters (that is, if he does in fact know of these things). Does he have a reason to tell the Lannisers about Sansa-- Cersei's creating enough chaos in KL with the Tyrells? These things could go unmentioned simply because he doesn't believe that they interfere with his plans in any way. Plus, I'm not sure which POV we would see such conversations from.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

oh-- or option 2: Varys does use the rookery at KL. Pycelle seems to know something about Varys. He tells Tyrion that he knows things about "the eunuch that would chill [his] blood." I could see it being the case that Varys has blackmailed Pycelle into letting he or his birds use the rookery and to keep silent about Varys' network. So I wonder if Pycelle could know something about it. But I think his spies are using off-site locations from which to send messages. This could explain why Pycelle is so afraid of Varys.

1. I don't think Varys lacks for funds-- look at how rich Illyrio is, and consider that Varys is just as wealthy as they're business partners.

2. If it's so obvious, how come I haven't seen it suggested before :cool4:

3. It doesn't need much infrastructure-- all you need to do is train the ravens how to home.

4. Pycelle may have been blackmailed into allowing this to happen. Varys seems to be holding something over him. We've established he's got probably thousands of grown "birds" around that might not have been killed, so maybe they're training the ravens. Or maybe Bloodraven's sending them, lol (joke, joke....well, half joking)

A raven is significantly faster than a ship, and for men like Illyrio and Varys, I think time is money. It's a worthwhile investment to take the raven route.

1. Yes, they are rich - but we are talking about a continent-spanning network of ravens. There are maybe 200 rookeries around because they are so expensive, those founded by Lords that can field several thousand men each! No one else can afford it.

2. More like obvious to the spy's neighbours and Lords, Tending to a bunch of ravens every day is pretty hard to hide.

3. Train the ravens, distribute them to the agents, replace them if they are spent or died.

4. Maybe. That's actually the weakest case. But it is a maybe as in "maybe Aegon falls down a stair and dies" case.

A hidden raven network of such an extent could only work if it's powered by heavy doses of plotonium.

[butterbumps!]

1. Yes, they are rich - but we are talking about a continent-spanning network of ravens. There are maybe 200 rookeries around because they are so expensive, those founded by Lords that can field several thousand men each! No one else can afford it.

2. More like obvious to the spy's neighbours and Lords, Tending to a bunch of ravens every day is pretty hard to hide.

3. Train the ravens, distribute them to the agents, replace them if they are spent or died.

4. Maybe. That's actually the weakest case. But it is a maybe as in "maybe Aegon falls down a stair and dies" case.

A hidden raven network of such an extent could only work if it's powered by heavy doses of plotonium.

I don't think that it makes sense for Varys to be relying on ships and the pony express. Between Essos and Westeros, yes, I think ships are required as I'm not sure that a raven could span this distance. But intra-continent seems entirely plausible to me.

I don't quite understand why a raven network would seem egregiously expensive. They could be breeding the things themselves. Why is a raven network is more expensive or complicated than paying for ship passage and the like? The ravens are kept at a "home" location, brought to a secondary location, then released and fly to the original location. A raven trainer isn't exactly putting a man on the moon here. I actually think this is a really economical option in terms of both money and time.

Also, it's not as though Westeros is so developed such that a location right outside of town or something like that would necessarily stand out as curious if there were a bunch of birds coming in and out.

And Varys does seem to have the infrastructure to distribute and keep ravens--he has all those mute kids, and possibly mute adults. I don't think that a "hidden" raven network strains credulity.

There's something between Pycelle and Varys for a certainty; specifically, Pycelle knows something about Varys he finds incredibly disturbing and is about to give it up to Tyrion. It may not be this, but it's definitely something.

[ab aeterno]

There's something between Pycelle and Varys for a certainty; specifically, Pycelle knows something about Varys he finds incredibly disturbing and is about to give it up to Tyrion. It may not be this, but it's definitely something.

Or knew... :P

[Lord Varys]

Varys knows very much, and therefore he has to have sources to gain that knowledge. And then he has to have people who look through all the stuff that's coming in, and sort it out. Varys has to know what's important, he has to know what this or that person he is going to groom for something/try to manipulate into doing something etc. will most likely want to hear. Then he has to provide actual knowledge on stuff the whole council would want to know (say, news about the war(s), political developments elsewhere etc.

Considering that we do know more or less how the bird network within the Red Keep works (and I'm inclined to believe that the little birds only work there), Varys has to get tons of reports every day from the Red Keep itself. We know that there are everywhere secret passageways and listening posts except for Maegor's Holdfast (at least, that's what Varys told Tyrion - but it makes sense to assume that Maegor only wanted to build a secret escape way for himself into Maegor's, and was not interesting that his Master of Whisperers kept him under surveillance!), and the castle is not small. Considering the details Varys put forth during Tyrion's trial, we have to assume he has reports of whole conversations of every member of the court (and even of members of the royal family when they talk outside Maegor's), and this way very well include guardsmen, lieutenants etc. One man alone would not be able to manage all that. But that's only the core of Varys's network, and this core is mostly not used in his day-to-day business. He has to earn his keep with his knowledge about the outside world, and the internal affairs of all the other noble houses within in Westeros. News about these things are the things Varys refers to during most of the council sessions.

In my opinion, Varys has a bureaucratic front (we never saw the office of the Master of Whisperers, but there has to be one), just as he has a facade living room, but his true spy system is only known to, and accessible to him. Only this way Varys could prevent that all his assets in KL ended up under the control of his successor as Master of Whisperers should he ever be forced to go underground. Qyburn only controls this front of the business, he has no clue about, nor access to the birds. Qyburn's knowledge only comes from all those freelancer informers who sell their knowledge to the Master of Whisperers. None of those people was directly in Varys's employ (or if they were, they only told Qyburn what Varys wanted him to know).

But back to this bird-killing-thing:

The lines in AGoT don't indicate that Varys kills birds who have grown too old. He wants another fifty birds, best younger ones, since they don't die so easily. Illyrio asks him if they can keep their tongues, but Varys deems this too risky. If we assume that the birds are killed by Varys when they reach a certain age/size (or if it was generally impossible for grown-up people to use secret passageways), he would have said something like that: 'Give me younger ones, so that I can use them for a longer period of time.' But that's not the case.

As of yet, we lack decisive evidence that Varys is a mass-murderer of the child spies in his service. His 'not die so easily' line may very well only refer to the birds he loses from time to time within the tunnels. Jaime and Cersei discovered the remains of children within the ruins of the Tower of the Hand. Considering how dangerous some of the tunnels and passageways are, badly trained children may very well have plenty of accidents down there. And we have also to consider that Varys and Illyrio may use the birds in other capacities as well. For instance, the cabin boy who cleans up Tyrion in the beginning of ADwD is most likely a mute bird (and this fact is the reason why Illyrio is quite convinced that no one will ever learn that Tyrion has been brought to Pentos).

On Varys, Aerys, and the KG members:

Well, if Varys truly was poisoning Aerys's mind, my guess is he would have done it so subtly that Jaime and Selmy would not have realized what was going on even if they had been present, but Varys is too smart for that. He would have given Aerys the truly poisonous advice only when they were alone. And there are secrets a king keeps even from his Kingsguard.

Barristan has still not realized that Varys and Illyrio work together, and that he has to thank Varys for the fact that he got alive to Pentos. ADwD gave us a very subtle clue on that. When Selmy returned to KL he came through the Gate of the Gods, and we know that Varys's agents watch every newcomer through the eyes of the Gods (Varys told Tyrion this back in ACoK). I very much doubt that Varys's agents did not recognize Barristan Selmy. Especially since Selmy ended up hanging out in the pot shops and wine sinks of Flea Bottom, which are also closely monitored by Varys.

And Jaime, well, Jaime did not realize that Varys has played him when he 'forced' him to release Tyrion. I can't imagine those two seeing through Varys's game back during the Rebellion. Assuming that there was a game back then. The whole Aegon plot may very well be only a reaction to the chaos of the War of the Usurper.

[Scipio Africanus]

I think this is a promising line of thought, but Ser Dontos at least tells Sansa that Varys pays his informers (implying that Varys either pays him or Moon Boy,) which suggests that Varys either doesn't always us a middle man of doesn't care for secrecy from his middle men all the time.

Well the Moon Boy comment may be more on the line of Tyrion telling Jaime that Cercei "may be fucking Moon Boy for all he knew". In other words, Dontos suggests here Varys is paying anyone who's open for it to give him info.

However. This was at KL, in the Red Keep. How does Varys get his info from say, Renly camp? I doubt he went to Renly's camp at Storm's End or had servants and/or men-at-arms run up to KL to give him the scoop. That's why I'm reasoning he's working with middle-men, say, sub-contractors.

On a side note, how did LF insure Dontos wouldn't speal his beans to Varys about Sansa? Now I actually liked Dontos, and I didn't like it (as usual) when LF had him ruthlessly murdered, but LF was right in his reasoning that Dontos was unreliable. He was the kind of guy who either intentionally would blab (when he ran out of money for booze) or unintentionally would talk (when drunk).

Considering Dontos knew Varys was also offering money, why didn't Dantos spill his beans to Varys for some extra cash?

There's something between Pycelle and Varys for a certainty; specifically, Pycelle knows something about Varys he finds incredibly disturbing and is about to give it up to Tyrion. It may not be this, but it's definitely something.

We'll never know now but I fear Pycelle knows what Varys does to little birds who outlive their usefulness. :(

I don't think we'd have seen Varys discussing any of those things you mention with any of the characters (that is, if he does in fact know of these things). Does he have a reason to tell the Lannisers about Sansa-- Cersei's creating enough chaos in KL with the Tyrells? These things could go unmentioned simply because he doesn't believe that they interfere with his plans in any way. Plus, I'm not sure which POV we would see such conversations from.

This is going into Varys "does it for the realm and children" territory I'm afraid. For one, I don't believe for one minute he's doing all he does out of some altruistic vision of a new Westeros order which would benifit society. He just doesn't strike me as a revolutionairy type. ;)

Varys, by tipping Cercei off about Sansa's whereabouts and implying LF's involvement in that (and perhaps Joff's death), would remove LF from the Game I'd reckon. Varys isn't promising money to the likes of Mad Mouse (and many others) just for his own curiousity. At least I find this hard to believe.

Well, if Varys truly was poisoning Aerys's mind, my guess is he would have done it so subtly that Jaime and Selmy would not have realized what was going on even if they had been present, but Varys is too smart for that. He would have given Aerys the truly poisonous advice only when they were alone. And there are secrets a king keeps even from his Kingsguard.

Barristan has still not realized that Varys and Illyrio work together, and that he has to thank Varys for the fact that he got alive to Pentos. ADwD gave us a very subtle clue on that. When Selmy returned to KL he came through the Gate of the Gods, and we know that Varys's agents watch every newcomer through the eyes of the Gods (Varys told Tyrion this back in ACoK). I very much doubt that Varys's agents did not recognize Barristan Selmy. Especially since Selmy ended up hanging out in the pot shops and wine sinks of Flea Bottom, which are also closely monitored by Varys.

And Jaime, well, Jaime did not realize that Varys has played him when he 'forced' him to release Tyrion. I can't imagine those two seeing through Varys's game back during the Rebellion. Assuming that there was a game back then. The whole Aegon plot may very well be only a reaction to the chaos of the War of the Usurper.

I agree with the rest of your post (and the previous one) but I don't agree that Barristan (or Jaime), just because he isn't the most intelligent man around, would somehow distord what he heard.

That he thought Varys was "poisoning" Aerys' ears implies to me Varys was plainly negative somehow over Rhaegar's actions. Barristan is shown to us as a simple man who loves to serve and rarely questions. I somehow doubt he'd totally mishear what he heard Varys say about Rhaegar just because he didn't like Lord Eunuch. I think he thought Varys was basically saying to Aerys that his son was organizing an open rebellion against him.

[Lord Varys]

I'm also doubting that Varys is 'a revolutionary' in the sense that he wants to create a new social order. The point of the Aegon game seems to be to put a King on the Iron Throne who is worthy to be a king, and who would be able to preserve the peace as long as possible. Varys seems to create a second Jaehaerys the Conciliator. To ensure this, all the bad elements have to go.

It's possible that there is a different deeper layer to Varys's endgame, stuff connected to magic, prophecy, and even the Others. But if that's not the case, I can actually believe that he only wants to create a lasting peace.

The whole scene about the murder of Kevan and Pycelle actually shows that Varys does not like to kill. He most certainly has done it once in a while, but the Epilogue of ADwD is the first and as of yet only moment he commits an act of violence. This makes is actually believable that he does not like to do this stuff, which is truly remarkable, since Varys would actually be much better Littlefinger material. He was born a slave, ended up being abused as child, got unmaned by this cruel sorcerer for a mysterious purpose, and still ended up becoming a very powerful and wealthy man. Yet Varys does not show any tendencies of fucking the world and the people in it the same way he got all his life (which would be more or less Littlefinger's modus operandi). He may ruin and destroy people, but he does not relish in it, nor does he do it himself. If he can, he throws them the rope to do it themselves. The fact that he personally kills Kevan and Pycelle shows that his game is finally beginning. Aegon is not a pawn, he is (right now) the Queen of his game, and he is not going to risk losing him.

[The Sleeper]

Isn't it strange that Varys managed to arrange for a ship to take Tyrion to Illyrio at a moment's notice. I think he had planned to spring Tyrion regardless of Jaime's intervention.

[butterbumps!]

This is going into Varys "does it for the realm and children" territory I'm afraid. For one, I don't believe for one minute he's doing all he does out of some altruistic vision of a new Westeros order which would benifit society. He just doesn't strike me as a revolutionairy type. ;)

Varys, by tipping Cercei off about Sansa's whereabouts and implying LF's involvement in that (and perhaps Joff's death), would remove LF from the Game I'd reckon. Varys isn't promising money to the likes of Mad Mouse (and many others) just for his own curiousity. At least I find this hard to believe.

Sorry- did you mean my post makes Varys look like a revolutionary or truly caring for the realm? I thought I was implying the opposite-- that Varys knows what LF's up to, and as LF's don't presently conflict with his, he let's it be. That he doesn't have any real investment in LF's schemes, but doesn't consider him a threat presently. If Varys does know about some of the things you mention, telling someone might cause ripples that could interefere with his own main plan-- Varys isn't simply trying to sow discord, but strategic discord. So I was in absolutely no way trying to imply that anything Varys either does or doesn't tell is motivated by altruistic reasons.

[Dr. Pepper]

I'm also quite confused with the idea that a keeping a ravenry would be expensive. All it requires is keeping the birds fed, trained to fly to a specific location, a room set up to keep them, and someone who can write (we've already seen two illiterates learn to read, one who was mute and one who was well beyond the traditional age). The only mention we get about the 'cost' of keeping ravens is when it comes to having a maester. There are not enough maesters to go around, but I doubt maesters are the only ones who know the secrets of keeping a ravenry. Even if they are, anyone can train to be a maester. He can even drop out before earning his full chain. Maintaining a ravenry is significantly cheaper than the time and cost it takes to deliver messages via ship or road.

[Lummel]

The ravens also have to be transported back. Most of them can only fly to one location. Even being able to fly between two locations is apparently unusual.

But on the other hand Illyrio is bankrolling Varys' activities so he should be able to afford raven post.

[Scipio Africanus]

Sorry- did you mean my post makes Varys look like a revolutionary or truly caring for the realm? I thought I was implying the opposite-- that Varys knows what LF's up to, and as LF's don't presently conflict with his, he let's it be. That he doesn't have any real investment in LF's schemes, but doesn't consider him a threat presently. If Varys does know about some of the things you mention, telling someone might cause ripples that could interefere with his own main plan-- Varys isn't simply trying to sow discord, but strategic discord. So I was in absolutely no way trying to imply that anything Varys either does or doesn't tell is motivated by altruistic reasons.

Yeah my apologies after I posted I realized I was responding to another set of users (in another thread) who basically used the arguement that Varys, out of some sort of guilt, didn't want to tattle on Cercei were Sansa was. Which is something I would have a hard time believing.

However I don't see why Varys wouldn't want to eliminate LF. A male lion asserts his dominance by driving off all compitition, and LF is a hyena looking to nibble on a carcass claimed by said lion. Seeing LF is a lone hyena the lion should have no problem running him off.

I just don't see why Varys wouldn't take the opportunity to kill off LF. He must know he's about the only proficient player in the Game left, so why not get rid of him?

The ravens also have to be transported back. Most of them can only fly to one location. Even being able to fly between two locations is apparently unusual.

But on the other hand Illyrio is bankrolling Varys' activities so he should be able to afford raven post.

The question is not so much how Varys communicates. The question is who Varys communicates with. Who's on the other end of his communication line? I somehow doubt the washerwoman at Renly's camp is going to tie messages to ravens.

ps keeping ravens isn't that hard. Sam did it while he was no maester, and before him some smelly dude of little intellect was able to keep ravens as well.

The trick is the training probably.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I'm also quite confused with the idea that a keeping a ravenry would be expensive. All it requires is keeping the birds fed, trained to fly to a specific location, a room set up to keep them, and someone who can write (we've already seen two illiterates learn to read, one who was mute and one who was well beyond the traditional age). The only mention we get about the 'cost' of keeping ravens is when it comes to having a maester. There are not enough maesters to go around, but I doubt maesters are the only ones who know the secrets of keeping a ravenry. Even if they are, anyone can train to be a maester. He can even drop out before earning his full chain. Maintaining a ravenry is significantly cheaper than the time and cost it takes to deliver messages via ship or road.

Just quoting the one.

The costly transport of the ravens (several thousand miles) is one point, but it's the same for the "official ravens". The real expensive problem is that they are "illegal" ravens.

Problem 1: Smuggling a bunch of ravens to Varys spy. Transport, bribes for the smuggler, bribes for the customs officers, bribes for anybody noticing, bribes, bribes, bribes and a high risk for someone telling.

Problem 2: Keeping the ravens close to the spy. They need someone to feed them daily and shovel guano. Bribes for this guy, bribes for the neighbours noticing, bribes for tax collectors not noticing, bribes, bribes, bribes. And now hiding them is almost impossible. A whole village knows. A village sworn to the Lord you are spying on. A village where the Lords sons and soldiers look for girls. A village where the Lords soldiers were born.

And everybody wonders why this guy keeps some ravens...

Slipping a sealed letter to a trusted merchant that passes through every few months together with some stags is far easier, far cheaper and vastly more secure. Two people know that a letter changes hands. One guy knows what's in the letter. Merchants act as messengers all the time.