Israeli Elections & Politics- Jan 22-2013

[Datepalm]

Lapid supports Lapid. He has no principles, no ideology, no intellectual positions and no spine.

[Datepalm]

Arab parties seem to have crashed, as did the turnout - weird fizzling out at the end of the day or haven't they counted the soldiers yet or what?

[ljkeane]

Lapid supports Lapid. He has no principles, no ideology, no intellectual positions and no spine.

So you're a fan then?

I have to say regardless of the possible benefits of a party list proportional representation system I don't like the lack of interactive maps for me to play with.

[All-for-Joffrey]

Arab parties seem to have crashed, as did the turnout - weird fizzling out at the end of the day or haven't they counted the soldiers yet or what?

I read an article (I forget where exactly, I think on the BBC?) stating that this was because most Israeli-Arabs were frustrated with those parties' emphasis on the ever-so-elusive peace process where as they want them to focus more on domestic issues in Israel proper so they simply just didn't show up. Is this accurate?

[DaveRoid]

How does the decisions making work in the Knesset? for example is there a need for a bill to pass to allow more settlements (or less) or thats up to the prime minister only?

On the election front it looks like the right wing coalition is up by +1 or so from exit polls. That is pretty damn close...

[DaveRoid]

Lol my hunch was not that unfounded.

"Netanyahu's victory is a pyrrhic victory, and it is not clear he will be the next prime minister," said Israeli political analyst Yaron Ezrahi. "Netanyahu will face difficulty in constructing a viable coalition," Ezrahi said, estimating the life span of the next Israeli government at no more than 18 months.

Here is hoping!

[Datepalm]

final count still isn't in, and it mostly the army, which might well swing things right again, but might not - soldiers are young, they might actually have gone hard for Lapid. Arab parties resurged too, actually finishing one up with 12, but Balad are borderline and might be out yet (Let's say they're the one party that definitely isn't going to pick up any military votes) and so is Kadima, so who knows. Bad turn night for Balad in any case (looks like Zoabi is out either way - apparently her shenanigans weren't that popular?) in favour of ra'am-ta'al (as close as there is to a pragmatic arab party?)

[Schlimazl]

Final reuslts;

Likud 31

Kapid 19

Labour 15

Shas 11

Bennet 11

United Tora Judaism 7

Livni 6

Meretz 6

Raam-Taal 5

Hadash 4

Balad 3

Kadima 2

[Ser Reptitious]

Final reuslts;

Likud 31

Kapid 19

Labour 15

Shas 11

Bennet 11

United Tora Judaism 7

Livni 6

Meretz 6

Raam-Taal 5

Hadash 4

Balad 3

Kadima 2

So if I'm reading these numbers right, does this mean there is hope for the peace process after all? (Going into today's election the international news generally seemed pretty gloomy about it!)

[lumer]

Ser Rep,

I wouldn't count on it. Likud+Bennet will not budge much. Lapid will not insist on it. And any other combination is wishful thinking, not reality

[Datepalm]

I do wonder if all of Yesh Atid can survive any length of time in the same government as Bennet (not to mention Feiglin and whatever other psychos are knocking around the ends of Likud and Bennet's lists,) starting right with Shai Peron and Yael German. Like any good ersatz center party, I'm assuming Lapid will immediately go 180 on every single principle that got him elected (the first difficult thing he'll have to do as a politician, given that no one knows what those principles are) but i'd like to assume theres a limit to what at least some of the list will swallow. 19 is more than big enough to be unweildly - i'm going to guess a Bennet-Likud-Lapid-Kadima(+maybe even Shas) coalition that will fall apart over faultlines in Yesh Atid.

[Derfel Cadarn]

Lapid supports Lapid. He has no principles, no ideology, no intellectual positions and no spine.

You could have just said he was a politician and saved your fingers from typing the rest. :P

[Istakhr]

Datepalm -

Considering that left in israel seems to have no chance of being elected on their own any time soon, is there a chance that they might try to get votes from arabs in future elections?

Can any mostly jewish mainstream party like labor ever get a significant part of arab minority's vote especially arabs who don't usually vote?

[Datepalm]

They already do - about a quarter of arab votes go to parties that aren't in the Arab block, mostly left and center but not only. Ultra Orthodox parties tend to have a small but decent showing as well, mostly since they'll reliably support policies that are good for large families and sheer bloody minded conservatism, I suppose.

Browsing through votes in arab towns for procrastinations sake...

109 people in Jasr-a-Zarka voted for the Kahanists?!?

ETA what is it with the Druze and Kadima? Seriously? Kadima won Usfiya.

ETA2 - Shas (ultra orthodox) tied with Hadash (communists) to win Mr'ar. Snerk.

Itzhar seems to be the only place in the country won by Otzma, with 70+% of the vote. (well, of 390.) Congrats! You would be the craziest place in Israel, only you're not in Israel, so fuck you.

2 people in Kiryat4 voted Balad. :dunno:

[Fez]

I do wonder if all of Yesh Atid can survive any length of time in the same government as Bennet (not to mention Feiglin and whatever other psychos are knocking around the ends of Likud and Bennet's lists,) starting right with Shai Peron and Yael German. Like any good ersatz center party, I'm assuming Lapid will immediately go 180 on every single principle that got him elected (the first difficult thing he'll have to do as a politician, given that no one knows what those principles are) but i'd like to assume theres a limit to what at least some of the list will swallow. 19 is more than big enough to be unweildly - i'm going to guess a Bennet-Likud-Lapid-Kadima(+maybe even Shas) coalition that will fall apart over faultlines in Yesh Atid.

So if I set the over/under for the next election being in exactly 2 years; which would you take?

[Ser Reptitious]

Ser Rep,

I wouldn't count on it. Likud+Bennet will not budge much. Lapid will not insist on it. And any other combination is wishful thinking, not reality

But Likud, Lapid and Bennet together only have 61 seats. That's a pretty slim majority. I suppose they could invite Shas back into the coalition, but wouldn't that cause some problems with Lieberman's portion of the new Likud?

Any chance at all that Netanyahu could surprise everyone and form a grand coalition of Likud+Lapid+Labour? They have 65 seats among them. I know that Likud and Labour are traditional rivals, but such coalitions among rivals have been formed in the recent past in Germany and now Greece. Yes, in the latter case that was probably mainly due to the dire economic circumstances, which obviously don't apply to Israel, but if Bibi is first and foremost concerned with his own survival as PM that might be the most stable coalition available.

[Schlimazl]

I do wonder if all of Yesh Atid can survive any length of time in the same government as Bennet (not to mention Feiglin and whatever other psychos are knocking around the ends of Likud and Bennet's lists,) starting right with Shai Peron and Yael German. Like any good ersatz center party, I'm assuming Lapid will immediately go 180 on every single principle that got him elected (the first difficult thing he'll have to do as a politician, given that no one knows what those principles are) but i'd like to assume theres a limit to what at least some of the list will swallow. 19 is more than big enough to be unweildly - i'm going to guess a Bennet-Likud-Lapid-Kadima(+maybe even Shas) coalition that will fall apart over faultlines in Yesh Atid.

No reason for them to fall apart while they seat around government table, it's once they fall from warm seats to opposition center parties start to fall apart (Kadima, Shinui).

ETA:Since Meretz sat with Mafdal in 199 government, and the quit not after a year not because of the settlers, i wouldn't hold my breath on Yael german's principles

I think there will be Likud/Bennet/Lapid/Mofaz coalition, maybe with Livni, looks kind of similar to Sharon's 2003 government;Likud, Shinui(Lapid senior), Mafdal, Ikhud Leumi.That one fell apart over disengagement from Gaza.This time it's obviously not happening, but I think that bennet is far more likely to bring the coalition down over some shacks on random hilltop, repeat of Bar Ilan speech or another round negotiations farce.Then Bibi will turn to haredim/labor and then they will either fall over budget or hobble to something close to full term like now.

Any chance at all that Netanyahu could surprise everyone and form a grand coalition of Likud+Lapid+Labour? They have 65 seats among them. I know that Likud and Labour are traditional rivals, but such coalitions among rivals have been formed in the recent past in Germany and now Greece. Yes, in the latter case that was probably mainly due to the dire economic circumstances, which obviously don't apply to Israel, but if Bibi is first and foremost concerned with his own survival as PM that might be the most stable coalition available.

Likud and Labour actually sat in one government quite a lot (Shamir/Peres rotation government in the 80's, national unity government during Second Intifada, Sharon's government after rightwingers tried to topple it over disengagement, and at the start of Bibi's last reign) this time it would be unlikely since Labour's leader is quite explicit that she will not sit in government headed by Bibi.Of course as I said earlier labour's leaders do not last, it's quite possible that in a year or so she will be gone, or there will be a split, and that door may open again.

Itzhar seems to be the only place in the country won by Otzma

Kfar habad also, and they are on the left side of the green line(

[Datepalm]

No reason for them to fall apart while they seat around government table, it's once they fall from warm seats to opposition center parties start to fall apart (Kadima, Shinui).

ETA:Since Meretz sat with Mafdal in 199 government, and the quit not after a year not because of the settlers, i wouldn't hold my breath on Yael german's principles

I feel like it's a more polarizing issue today than in 1999, with the lines much more firmly drawn and tied up very tightly with other issues. Theres virtually no such thing as culturally progressive/secular settlers anymore, and I think theres an undercurrent of the economic left lining up on the right (er, left) side of the green line as well. I can't imagine Meretz joining Bennet today - theres simply not a single point of contact. ("Shiv'ion baNetel"? Even theres the left sees that quite differently from Lapid rightwards) Not saying that German might not cross that line, but I think she would have a hard time crossing it back.

Labour might end up doing anything under the sun once they're done with their ritual post-election human sacrifice of the leadership by burial in the desert outside Sde Boker in a few months and things settle down.

ETA - grrr hebrew letters, I want's them. 's'emek.

[Schlimazl]

I think that under the right conditions they might sit together, I think mainly because national-religious movement tends to be economically lefty in essence, and both would want to change status quo to to a more liberal position then the current.I am talking about political leadership that is, the electorate of course hates each other with a passion.

As an aside I think it's wrong to characterize Bennet's army as exclusively settler party, sure that is the cornerstone of the national-religious movement, but they also have settlement in Negev and Galilee (to prevent arab majority) as part of their ethos.On the flip side places like Beitar Ilit or Modiin Ilit don't vote for them, in kibbutzim of Dead Sea or Bikaat HaYarden they also don't seem to be doing that great as i recall, and of course large Russian populations in Ariel or Maale Adumim will vote for Moldovan Private First Class.

On a different note, I would really pay a lot to know what transpired between Bibi and Bennet. It feels that he is bringing him into government as readily as pick a pile of shit with barehanded.Since I really doubt it is ideologically motivated one has to wonder what did Bennet do.

[Datepalm]

Well, theres all the gossip about it being purely a personal thing with Sara Netanyahu, which just sounds nasty...

I think Bennet has a solid core of supporters among secular settlers as well (sure, not, I dunno, Kali"a or Almog, but they'd still vote Mapam if you let them. Plus, they're negligible numerically,) Russians and all, thought certainly not the overwhelming support of the religeous. I do think they view voting Likud or Bennet as fundamentally similar platforms with a change of character though. (Russians are as turned off by Liberman's turn to religeous sanctimony as they are by Bennets religeousness. Some are just hard enough right that they don't care. (some do - my dad voted Liberman, felt totally betrayed on civil rights issues, and voted meretz this time. :dunno: )

What gets me is apparently there were an honest to god, 4-5 seats at least, utterly up in the air between Lapid and Bennet. That's utterly beyond my comprehension...or they had the gut sense that I didn't, that Bennet and Lapid are basically indistinguishable except for the quality of their haircare products, and may turn out to be right after all.

And, yeah, it looking more and more like it's going to be an Anti-Haredi cheap populism covering up hard right economic+underground hard right political government. Things will suck.