It might arguably make sense for Aegon to be fake/a Blackfyre but there is very little textual evidence.

[PrimeRhaegar]

it happens man when a theory is popular alot of fans take it as a fact much like septa lemore is ashura dayne, sandor is the grave digger etc. We all know a baby swap is possible so until proven fo rme aegon is rhaegar's and elia's son. I think it has to do with alot of fans hating the targaryens since they are not painted in a good light in asoiaf time line.

[anon76returns]

the golden company was founded by bittersteel, another of aegon iv's legitimized bastards. the 'contract written in blood' gives the only credible reason in my mind why the company would break its contract with myr when they have never broken a contract in their entire existence. their original purpose predates the myrish contract.

I've seen this argument repeatedly in the Aegon debate, but I agree here with the OP about a lack of textual evidence. Certainly Griff thinks that Aegon is Rhaegar's son. Are we to believe that Harry Strickland and co. have been let in on the secret, while Grief hasn't? And that somehow the officers of the GC are going to be able to keep this secret from Griff?

That doesn't sound very likely to me.

(OTOH, the logistical difficulties for Varys to have been able to smuggle out the real Aegon & replace him without Elia's knowledge before the Mountain went to town seem equally unlikely, so whatareyougonnado?)

[Whitering]

The textual evidence for Aegon being a Blackfyre is in fact the absence of textual evidence. Please pay attention. Having a new character who has a legit claim to the throne of Westeros pop out of thin air in what was planned to be the second last book of the series at one point would be...well, silly.

However, if he exists as a challenge to an established character, that makes a lot more sense. That's all it took for me to write him off. Until George himself says he is real I will not believe anything anyone else has to say about it.

[Downright Daario]

To add onto the textual evidence for Aegon being a blackfyre, when Tyrion asks Illyrio why the Golden Company abandoned it's contract with Myr, Blemishing it's perfect record and he says that "Some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood. I say no more.". This makes more sense when you consider that the founder of the Golden Company was one of the first blackfyres, Aegor "Bittersteel" Rivers, they even fought in war of the Ninepenny Kings to seat Maelys the Monstrous, the last blackfyre in the male line on the Iron Throne.

[jon crow]

I've seen this argument repeatedly in the Aegon debate, but I agree here with the OP about a lack of textual evidence. Certainly Griff thinks that Aegon is Rhaegar's son. Are we to believe that Harry Strickland and co. have been let in on the secret, while Grief hasn't? And that somehow the officers of the GC are going to be able to keep this secret from Griff?

That doesn't sound very likely to me.

the fewer officers that know, the easier the secret is to keep. no way the common enlisted men know. but one or two higher ups? they can keep joncon in the dark no problem. connington is selling the lie to himself. all they have to do is go along with it. the bigger quandary for me is that joncon was in the golden company when myles toyne made the deal. that would have been the most vulnerable time for him to find out. once he was convinced, though, he's so attached to rhaegar's son that he's not going to dig too deep because they're giving him what he wants.

[Veltigar]

it happens man when a theory is popular alot of fans take it as a fact much like septa lemore is ashura dayne, sandor is the grave digger etc. We all know a baby swap is possible so until proven fo rme aegon is rhaegar's and elia's son. I think it has to do with alot of fans hating the targaryens since they are not painted in a good light in asoiaf time line.

I don't hate the Targaryens and yet I am a staunch supporter of the Faegon-theory.

Evidence pro-Blackfyre:

_Illyrio’s wife displayed Valyrian looks

_Tyrion is dressed up in expensive clothes made for a young boy

_The statue in Illyrio’s garden, depicting a young Illyrio looks very much like Faegon (implying that Illyrio is his father)

_Illyrio had sweets with him to give to Faegon. This shows that he cares for the boy. This is very strange since in that very same chapter he told Tyrion that he thought about keeping Dany for himself as a “concubine”. If he were a true Targ-loyalist than he wouldn’t think about Dany in that way, he should respect her as part of the royal family

_It would give both Varys and Illyrio motive. Illyrio is able to get his son on a throne (thus fulfilling the wish of his dead (?) wife) and Varys gets his nephew on the IT.

_If Varys was a Targ-loyalist why would he have fed Aerys paranoia? If Varys had sided with Rhaegar than a lot of bad things could have been avoided

_ Blackfyre’s are extinct in the male line, not in the female line

_ Varys lost his balls. If you believe that Varys is Faegon uncle, than some wizard might have chopped Varys balls of for his Kings blood

_ Harry Strickland: the man is described as being greedy and more hungry for gold than for battle, he’s more the LF-type than the honorable warrior type. His predecessor however was an honorable warrior type. A predecessor who had close ties with JonCon (and who would probably tell JonCon of the deceit). It wouldn’t surprise me if Varys and Illyrio arranged the death of Myles Toyne and made sure that Homeless Harry Strickland got the job

_The dragon sign that was made of black iron, it was tossed in the river and it washed up on the quiet isle red of rust

_ We are going to see a new Dance of Dragons. Why on earth would Dany fight her only living relative (apart from Jon Snow who she knows nothing about), why she basically longs for a family and a home (red door in Braavos). If you are not a Dany hater, than the only reason that makes sense is that Faegon isn’t a Targaryen.

_Tyrions behavior. Personally, I don’t think that Tyrion truly believes that Faegon is a Targaryen. I think that he guessed that the others believed Faegon to be real. He then went with the flow and tried to take advantage of the situation. And it worked, if Tyrion hadn’t been captured by Mormont, than he would be a lot closer to his revenge, because he had already earned the boys respect. And Tyrion knows that for his revenge, Faegon doesn’t have to be real since “power is just a shadow on the wall”. If people believed he was the true King and that they followed him than Tyrion could exploit that to get Casterley Rock.

Other arguments: Lots of people always say that if Illyrio truly is a Blackfyre supporter, it wouldn’t make sense to keep both Viserys and Dany alive. However, if Illyrio in fact is a Targ-loyalist than it would make sense to have both Viserys and Dany around to suck up all the attention of assassins.

However, you need to take into consideration that Faegon would always be suspected of being a Blackfyre, if he comes across the Narrow Sea with the GC. If Viserys and Dany however recognized him as a true Targaryen, than nobody would doubt Faegon being real. On top of that Faegon would get an army of Dothraki thanks to Dany’s husband and he could use Viserys to strike an additional marriage alliance (let’s say Viserys+Arianne and Faegon + Margaery). The dragon eggs also fit in this theory, because they would symbolize the “three Targaryens”. Since it was the custom for a Targaryen prince to get his own egg back in the days, it would make sense for Dany to gift her brother and nephew with one to celebrate their reunion (in this scenario the dragons wouldn’t have hached)

[Erudain]

Also the explanation given by Varys to Kevan about the magical baby swtich only works logically in hindsight for someone who already knows how Gregor kills the baby.

Varys had no way to know that Gregor would smash the baby head against the wall making him unrecognisable. If the Mountain kills the baby someway else (i.e. he chokes him) then his whole plan comes crashing down....when the Mountain presents the body to the court everyone would realise that was not Aegon (remember the baby already had signs of Targ looks)

Varys explanation also doesn't account for Elia's actions:

- "Elia fougth like a tigress" to defend the baby....if Varys aproached her and asked for a baby switch, why would she do that if that's not Aegon?

- Also if Varys informed her about the switch, why didn't she force him to take Rhaenys with them? They told Rhaenys "sorry sweetie, we are only going to save your brother, better luck on your next life"

- Even if Varys changed the babys without informing her, what kind of mother woudn't notice that baby is nor hers? She would had been desperate searching for him, not hiding in her room.

[anon76returns]

Evidence pro-Blackfyre:

_Illyrio’s wife displayed Valyrian looks

I don't recall anything beyond just 'blond hair', and I went back to re-read that part when I had access to books.

_Tyrion is dressed up in expensive clothes made for a young boy

Illyrio has a large household, and IIRC he offers up a boy if Tyrion is not pleased with his female bed warmer. I would imagine all the servants in Illyrio's manse are dressed in nice clothes.

_The statue in Illyrio’s garden, depicting a young Illyrio looks very much like Faegon (implying that Illyrio is his father)

Other than young and lithe, what other similarities do statue and Aegon share?

_Illyrio had sweets with him to give to Faegon. This shows that he cares for the boy. This is very strange since in that very same chapter he told Tyrion that he thought about keeping Dany for himself as a “concubine”. If he were a true Targ-loyalist than he wouldn’t think about Dany in that way, he should respect her as part of the royal family

As a parting gift he gives Aegon sweets, but gives Dany 3 dragon's eggs. Not very strong evidence in support of Blackfyriness, IMO.

_It would give both Varys and Illyrio motive. Illyrio is able to get his son on a throne (thus fulfilling the wish of his dead (?) wife) and Varys gets his nephew on the IT.

If Illyrio was a father (which I have my doubts) and Varys was an uncle (for which I've seen absolutely zero evidence).

_If Varys was a Targ-loyalist why would he have fed Aerys paranoia? If Varys had sided with Rhaegar than a lot of bad things could have been avoided

Probably best evidence for a Blackfyre plot, but not the only possible explanations for Varys' actions.

_ Blackfyre’s are extinct in the male line, not in the female line

We know about the male line, we are never told about the female line. Absence of evidence is not evidence either way!

_ Varys lost his balls. If you believe that Varys is Faegon uncle, than some wizard might have chopped Varys balls of for his Kings blood

I don't know that King's blood is necessary for any particular blood magic, though it may make it more potent. And if it was just the blood that was necessary, why not just leech Varys? Seems like the genitalia were more important to whatever magic occurred than the blood. And how would a scion to powerful house (albeit through the female line) wind up sold off to a mummer's troupe, anyway?

_ Harry Strickland: the man is described as being greedy and more hungry for gold than for battle, he’s more the LF-type than the honorable warrior type. His predecessor however was an honorable warrior type. A predecessor who had close ties with JonCon (and who would probably tell JonCon of the deceit). It wouldn’t surprise me if Varys and Illyrio arranged the death of Myles Toyne and made sure that Homeless Harry Strickland got the job

This seems pretty convoluted. Are you saying the GC 'pact of blood' for Aegon was not signed until after Toyne was out of the picture? It appears that the present leadership of the GC is quite divorced from that of Bittersteel, but is still mostly Westerosi exiled families. I see them as more eager to return to Westeros and reclaim family lands then support one or another faction of the royal family, certainly Strickland seems more interested in lands than honor, and Toyne wouldn't have hidden anything from Connington.

_The dragon sign that was made of black iron, it was tossed in the river and it washed up on the quiet isle red of rust

Perhaps just a sign that there's really not that much difference between the two.

_ We are going to see a new Dance of Dragons. Why on earth would Dany fight her only living relative (apart from Jon Snow who she knows nothing about), why she basically longs for a family and a home (red door in Braavos). If you are not a Dany hater, than the only reason that makes sense is that Faegon isn’t a Targaryen.

The original Dance of the Dragons had nothing to do with the Blackfyres, but instead about which of two Targaryen claimants would rule. That is the exact same dynamic that would lead a real Aegon and Dany to fight.

_Tyrions behavior. Personally, I don’t think that Tyrion truly believes that Faegon is a Targaryen. I think that he guessed that the others believed Faegon to be real. He then went with the flow and tried to take advantage of the situation. And it worked, if Tyrion hadn’t been captured by Mormont, than he would be a lot closer to his revenge, because he had already earned the boys respect. And Tyrion knows that for his revenge, Faegon doesn’t have to be real since “power is just a shadow on the wall”. If people believed he was the true King and that they followed him than Tyrion could exploit that to get Casterley Rock.

But this is in no way textual evidence. Via the POV we have insight into Tyrion's inner thoughts, and he never explicitly thinks "Aegon" is fake. Instead he mostly expresses ambivalence, which I take as neither an argument for or against Aegon's true identity.

[bent branch]

I suppose this is a good place to insert this bit of text from Tyrion VII-ADWD (the italics are the author's):

Haldon Halfmaester had spoken of using the red priest to Young Griff's advantage, Tyrion recalled. Now that he had seen and heard the man himself, that struck him as a very bad idea. He hoped Griff had better sense. Some allies are more dangerous than enemies. But Lord Connington will need to puzzle that out for himself. I am like to be a head on a spike.

The priest was pointing at the Black Wall behind the temple, gesturing up at its parapets, where a handful of armored guardsmen stood gazing down. "What is he saying?" Tyrion asked the knight.

"That Daenerys stands in peril. The dark eye has fallen upon her, and the minions of night are plotting her destruction, praying for their false gods in temples of deceit...conspiring at betrayal with godless outlanders..."

The hairs on the back of Tyrion's neck began to prickle. Prince Aegon will find no friend here. The red priest spoke of ancient prophecy, a prophecy that foretold the coming of a hero to deliver the world from darkness. One hero. Not two. Daenerys has dragons, Aegon does not. The dwarf did not need to be a prophet himself to foresee how Benerro and his followers might react to a second Targaryen. Griff will see that too, surely, he thought, surprised to find how much he cared.

I think it is clear from this section of text that:

1) Tyrion believes that Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

2) Tyrion knows about the PtwP/3HotD prophecies and that he learned about them from Haldon.

3) Tyrion is likes Aegon and crew and wishes them well.

I think this section of text also argues in favor of Aegon actually being Rhaegar's son. Not because the people in involved believe it, but because Illyrio and Varys have also been involved with all the planning on this enterprise. Therefore, they must also know about the PtwP angle. If this is the goal they are working towards, then no random boy will do. Aegon must be Rhaegar's son.

[Naathi Prince]

Aegon being a Blackfyre makes total sense based on the text. There's the story about the black dragon from the Tavern door being missing for so long that it turned up as a red dragon, there's the mummer's dragon prophecy, there's the fact that everyone on the entire boat is a complete fraud, and there's the fact that Ilyrio cares about putting him on the throne. That, above all.

Illyrio is a character we meet briefly, and then don't see for years. He's a fat glutton who is known primarily for his supreme greed. There is absolutely no indication from anyone who knows him that he has a heart or a soul....except when it comes to Serra.

We are given a long story about Serra. It goes on and on and on, and it becomes clear that she is the most important person Illyrio has ever come across in his life. He even swears by her hands, which he holds as a keepsake. She was from Lys, and have gold hair streaked with silver. I don't think it gets more obvious than that in these books. Its like if were told about a northern character who is a Stark loyalist whose origins we can't truly be certain about and happens to have brown hair and grey eyes.

Once you have accepted Serra's blackfyre ancestry, it becomes pretty elementary. Illyrio wants to spend his fortune on putting Aegon Targaryen and Daenerys Targaryen on the Iron Throne. Why? He's a slave trader, which Dany has smashed. The most similar character to Illyrio that we've met is Xaro Xhoan Daxos, and he rallied Qarth against the Queen of Meereen. As Tyrion says, there has to be a reason behind Illyrio's moves, a reason he has clothing for a young boy, and knows Aegon likes candied ginger.

[Naathi Prince]

In addition, there is Varys' king's blood. After all, the funeral pyre for the dragons created one dragon who has much more powerful than the others, the one which King's (Khal's) blood was used to create, Drogon.

[Veltigar]

I don't recall anything beyond just 'blond hair', and I went back to re-read that part when I had access to books.

She has blond hair streaked with silver.

Illyrio has a large household, and IIRC he offers up a boy if Tyrion is not pleased with his female bed warmer. I would imagine all the servants in Illyrio's manse are dressed in nice clothes.

Didn’t Tyrion specifically remark the quality of the clothes? He doesn’t do that for the female servants he meets and I certainly didn’t deduct from the text that they were dressed that nicely. On top of that we only saw female servants IIRC (I could be wrong),we have never seen a young boy in Illyrio’s mance.

Other than young and lithe, what other similarities do statue and Aegon share?

Young, lithe, handsome and dangerous. If you take away the blue hair of Faegon, the fysical resemblance is quite strong. Also both Illyrio’s statue and Faegon give of a very strong Daemon Blackfyre vibe IMO (Daemon the image of a true warrior).

As a parting gift he gives Aegon sweets, but gives Dany 3 dragon's eggs. Not very strong evidence in support of Blackfyriness, IMO.

The sweets are a sign of affection. Illyrio the cruel merchant who has shitload of servants, remembered some boys favorite kind of candy and bothered to take it with him. Why not a sword or a bow or something a young warrior King actually needs, because the sweets have a special meening for Illyrio and his relationship to Faegon (i.e. a gift from a loving father to his son).The dragon eggs were given to Dany not out of affection, but as a resource to be put to use. As I said in my post, Illyrio probably gave Dany three eggs to symbolize three “true” Targaryens.

We know about the male line, we are never told about the female line. Absence of evidence is not evidence either way

Alright than it’s a strong clue. Seriously, I don’t think you should bitch about it. There are loads of theories that use clues like this as ‘evidence’ (e.g. Rhaegar didn’t rape Lyanna , they loved each other).

I don't know that King's blood is necessary for any particular blood magic, though it may make it more potent. And if it was just the blood that was necessary, why not just leech Varys? Seems like the genitalia were more important to whatever magic occurred than the blood. And how would a scion to powerful house (albeit through the female line) wind up sold off to a mummer's troupe, anyway

Yet we have never heared about “cocks-and-balls-magic” maybe the important thing for the magic about cutting of his genitals was destroying the royal line since it ended Varys’s bloodline.

And how would a scion to powerful house (albeit through the female line) wind up sold off to a mummer's troupe, anyway

Because Maelys the Monstrous was a bad father who didn’t bother to leave a proper inheritance behind for his children?Because Varys lied about his live as a mummer?Because Varys mother ran away from the live (maybe she didn’t want her son to end up like Maelys).= > GRRM could write a bunch of different (sad) stories about Varys became part of a mummers troop. He already did this one time. The story of the young Glendon Ball for instance (from TMK) could very well resemble that of young Varys (with the slight change that Varys was sold to a mummers group). An alternative possibility: Varys and Serra are descendants of Aerion Brightflame (Aerion spent some time in Lys, Serra is from Lys) and Illyrio is in fact the descendant of the Blackfyre line. They might have struck a strategic alliance to unite the two Targaryen offshoot lines together and create a more pureblooded Blackfyre. Since Aerion was a total fucktard, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that he left his son high and dry. The sons offspring might have fallen even further of the social ladder, ending up as a eunuch and a whore.

This seems pretty convoluted. Are you saying the GC 'pact of blood' for Aegon was not signed until after Toyne was out of the picture? It appears that the present leadership of the GC is quite divorced from that of Bittersteel, but is still mostly Westerosi exiled families. I see them as more eager to return to Westeros and reclaim family lands then support one or another faction of the royal family, certainly Strickland seems more interested in lands than honor, and Toyne wouldn't have hidden anything from Connington.

As others have pointed out before the GC’s ‘pact of blood’ is more likely connected to their loyality to a Blackfyre pretender than with their pact with Faegon as a person. The present leadership of the GC are true Mercenaries. Strickland cares more for gold than for some long lost home (he is proud of being a mercenary, he boast about his four generations of gold for instance). He would be the perfect puppet for Varys. If Toyne had discovered that Aegon was indeed Faegon than he would have told JonCon, thus risking to blow there whole operation. Strickland wouldn’t care. Anyways, I agree that this is my weakest argument, it’s more of a guess based on the characters personalities.

Perhaps just a sign that there's really not that much difference between the two.

Could very well be, however I think it’s a rather bland explanation. And the other explanation given by us Blackfyre-supporters is a lot more plausible.

The original Dance of the Dragons had nothing to do with the Blackfyres, but instead about which of two Targaryen claimants would rule. That is the exact same dynamic that would lead a real Aegon and Dany to fight.

Yes, captain obvious I know that :P I simply don’t see Dany, who craves family and a home above anything else IMO (especially in the first books) fighting with someone over the IT who she believes is real. If Dany sees Aegon as real she would fight for him, not against him.

But this is in no way textual evidence. Via the POV we have insight into Tyrion's inner thoughts, and he never explicitly thinks "Aegon" is fake. Instead he mostly expresses ambivalence, which I take as neither an argument for or against Aegon's true identity.

That’s why I said that I “personally don’t think that Tyrion thinks that Faegon is the real thing”. Maybe I should have used another verb like I ‘interpret’ instead of I ‘think that. Anyways, just like the R+L=J theory you have to look at all these separate clues combined (there might be more evidence out there). If you do that than I think that they clearly make a much stronger case than the Aegon-is-real-theory.

[lcd52]

Until I started hanging out here, I'd never even considered the "unreliable narrator" concept. However, I haven't read anything to convince me Tyrion is NOT an accruate and reliable OBSERVER. And his observation was the Young Griff was about Dany's age. Rhaegar's son by Elia would be a least 18 months older.

If Illyrio was caring for the child, and SOMEONE had to, he'd naturally grow fond of him, know what his favorite sweets were, have clothing of his. He may have passed the boy off as a relative as Littlefinger did with "Alayne".

Jon Connington knew Elia's son. He probably said good-by to Elia and the children when he was fired as Hand. Infants change a lot in the first year of life; but if JonCon had been presented with an infant within a few months of saying good-by, I think there's a good chance he'd have been able to conclusively identify him.

So? the child entrusted to him was six or seven: page/squire age. In fact, he was kept entirely in the dark until then. If they were going to enlist him, why wait so long? Most of Aegon's credentials stem from Jon Connington. It's not like they have DNA testing. One answer: they need him to believe. Didn't Maester tell Sam about deceiving himself because he wanted to believe?

I agree that it will be irrelevant. People believe whatever gives them hope, regardless of the facts. Aegon probably looks very good on a horse and will have a Renly-esque campaign, beloved by the crowds. Whether he ends up like Renly or Quentyn, though, he's most likely to end up dead..

[The guy from the Vale]

As others have pointed out before the GC’s ‘pact of blood’ is more likely connected to their loyality to a Blackfyre pretender than with their pact with Faegon as a person. The present leadership of the GC are true Mercenaries. Strickland cares more for gold than for some long lost home (he is proud of being a mercenary, he boast about his four generations of gold for instance). He would be the perfect puppet for Varys. If Toyne had discovered that Aegon was indeed Faegon than he would have told JonCon, thus risking to blow there whole operation. Strickland wouldn’t care. Anyways, I agree that this is my weakest argument, it’s more of a guess based on the characters personalities.

I agree with most of the rest, but I disagree with you on this part. Toyne was an officer under Maelys the Monstrous. Strickland might not be a Blackfyre sympathizer any more (but that might just as well be a facade), but Toyne definitely was. If there's one person who might have been in on the scheme in the GC from the start, it must have been Toyne. Note that JC specifically wasn't part of the negotiations between Toyne and Illyrio/Varys. Griff doesn't know the contract. And the officers of the GC seem to know quite a bit more than Connington himself...

I agree that Strickland is firmly in Varys' pocket, though.

[Veltigar]

I agree with most of the rest, but I disagree with you on this part. Toyne was an officer under Maelys the Monstrous. Strickland might not be a Blackfyre sympathizer any more (but that might just as well be a facade), but Toyne definitely was. If there's one person who might have been in on the scheme in the GC from the start, it must have been Toyne. Note that JC specifically wasn't part of the negotiations between Toyne and Illyrio/Varys. Griff doesn't know the contract. And the officers of the GC seem to know quite a bit more than Connington himself...

I agree that Strickland is firmly in Varys' pocket, though.

I have a hard time seeing Toyne double crossing JonCon though... I mean IIRC wasn't there relationship "special"?

And who knows, maybe Toyne was opposed to the idea of a Blackfyre pretending to be a Targ. I don't see the honor in that do you? I can't imagine someone like Bitersteel or Maelys the Monstrous accept that. They probably wanted to take the throne with "fire and blood"and show that they were the strongest all along. Varys, Illyrio and Strickland on the other hand don't give a shit about honor. They care about power and gold, so they are cool with placing a Blackfyre on the throne who thinks that he is a Targ.

[Faint]

Veltigar has already done a good job outlying much of the evidence pointing to the fact that Aegon is a fake, which is considerable, although I think it should be noted that there is a good possibility that the reason Varys was made a eunuch was to end the Blackfyre line. And, indeed, the male line is probably extinct (as has been reference several times in the books), which necessitates the argument that Aegon is a Blackfyre via his mother.

For all those having doubts about the theory, I suggest replaying events since Varys arrived in Westeros, imagining him as a bitter and vengeful Blackfyre, stripped of his manhood and intent on gaining the ultimate revenge against the Targaryens. Also assume that Serra is a Blackfyre as well, possibly even Varys' sister, and that Aegon is her son with Illyrio. Now, think of all the events that have transpired from the moment Varys arrived in the court of Aerys Targaryen to the very present.

Funny how it all makes sense, right?

[Israel]

I think its a lot simpler than all that.

1. Verys' convo with a dying man ( readers).

a. deception by an author would not be a flat out lie to the readers they would be clues to a false truth. (if Verys told this lie to a breathing

character, maybe.)

b. If there had been one more person left alive in that scene that Verys needed to convince I would maybe agree.

2. Tyrion is the first to identify him, now Tyrion is far from perfect but having him just be wrong about him without being told ....

a. again , I can understand if JonCon pulled him aside and tells him and then we are supposed to believe the lie ,but he doesnt

b. Tyrion adds it up on his own it would be cheap just to have him make that goof.

I hear ya tho all this Blackfyre mythology for what?

[Dagon Greyjoy]

Theon listing what Ramsay took: x fingers, y toes, and that other thing

Or, say, a testicle. Does Ramsay ever refer to Theon as 'half a man'? IIRC, Theon doesn't think he can't fuck the spearwife, he's too broken to dare to touch her, nor in anger nor in lust. Theon's utter dread of being seen with only one egg could explain his extreme reluctance to being seen naked.

[anon76returns]

Veltigar has already done a good job outlying much of the evidence pointing to the fact that Aegon is a fake, which is considerable, although I think it should be noted that there is a good possibility that the reason Varys was made a eunuch was to end the Blackfyre line. And, indeed, the male line is probably extinct (as has been reference several times in the books), which necessitates the argument that Aegon is a Blackfyre via his mother.

For all those having doubts about the theory, I suggest replaying events since Varys arrived in Westeros, imagining him as a bitter and vengeful Blackfyre, stripped of his manhood and intent on gaining the ultimate revenge against the Targaryens. Also assume that Serra is a Blackfyre as well, possibly even Varys' sister, and that Aegon is her son with Illyrio. Now, think of all the events that have transpired from the moment Varys arrived in the court of Aerys Targaryen to the very present.

Funny how it all makes sense, right?

Many theories can make sense of events. I could say that Varys actually is some sort of magic practitioner that cut off his own genitalia, and that would explain his miraculous ability to know things he shouldn't. However there isn't much textual evidence to support such a theory.

I'll concede that if Aegon turns out to be a Blackfyre then many of these things will make sense. However I still agree with the OP that there is very little in the way of textual evidence (as opposed to "if you assume this, do things make sense" style of argumentation) supporting the Blackfyre claim. Illyrio is a fat Bravosi, yet according to some variations of the theory he should look like a Blackfyre. Varys has been with us since the very beginning of the story, and yet he has evinced no physical characteristics of a Blackfyre. Serra is supposed to be descended from the female Blackfyres, but all we know about her is that she has gold & silver hair (as do half the whores of Lys) and she's considered offensively common by the Pentoshi elite. Does Illyrio's statue look at all like Aegon? Not enough for Tyrion to remark on, certainly. They are both 'lithe', but this as common an adjective as I can imagine for a young male who's not brawny but in good shape. Loras Tyrell is lithe. Daario is lithe. I'm sure a young Bronn was lithe.

To add to the dubious nature of the physical resemblances, we have a sign that washes up with a new color on an island in the Riverlands that may or may not be prophetic, and the fact that Illyrio is fond of Aegon (though not fond enough in the end to travel the last bit to the boat to visit Aegon before he embarks to conquer Westeros). It just doesn't strike me as all that convincing, though as I say I won't be surprised if it turns out to be true.

[Dagon Greyjoy]

Varys shaves his head: It would be pretty hard to know whether or not he has classic High Valyrian hair. And many people in Essos have the telltale Valyrian eyes: The Freehold was massive.