Syria: End Game

[Former Lord of Winterfell]

This is an inaccurate characterisation. The Libyan government isn't in control of anywhere....

if that's true, then so is my statement.

When it comes to Islam in politics they've got a very Bible Belt take: Islam is a good thing, Muslims are good people and the government should reflect that, so why do we need an explicitly Islamic party?

so does Ansar al Sharia exist, or not? What about the other radical Islamic militias in Libya?

I'm not saying that all Libyans are violent, radical Islamists. I'm just saying that the lack of government control means that the organized radical Islamists who do exists present significant risks due to their militias. That is especially true in Eastern Libya.

[Samalander]

In a vain effort to prove that I can bring on the funny just as well as my compatriot, Datepalm, I put before you, my fellow board members, the following story:

“…and now let’s talk for a bit with this year’s favorite,” said the Host. He shoved the microphone into the face of the pale, caped woman standing beside him on the stage. “Victoria, you have managed to suck the blood of twelve virgins in one night, practically making yourself a shoe-in for this year’s Best Monster award. A truly spectacular achievement. Tell me, where did you find that many virgins?”

“San-Diego Comic Con,” answered the vampire. “I vould just like to add that this is the proudest moment of my unlife.”

A multitude of growls and shrieks issued from the crowd of ghouls, zombies, werewolves and other nasties in the audience. Naturally, each of them thought it was the most deserving of the award.

A single bloody tear rolled down the vampire’s cheek. “You hate me! You truly hate me!”

The Host touched his earpiece. He then brought the microphone to his lips. “Female-Monsters, Male-Monsters and Gender-Neutral-Abominations, an upset! I just got word that we have a human winner this year! I would like to call up to this very stage, none other than his benevolence, the Dictator of Syria!”

Ignoring the booing and hissing from the gathered monstrosities, raising his hands triumphantly in the air, the presumed-innocent-until-proven-guilty future war criminal took the steps leading up to the platform.

The Host motioned with his hand. “For getting tens of thousands of his own people brutally killed, I present to you this year’s Best Monster - Basher Hafez Al-Assad!” In a solitary deft move he got the microphone right beneath the moustache of his new interviewee. “What do you have to say to your adoring fans?”

“I would like to thank my dearly debarted father, who by his sterling examble, showed me everything I needed to know in order to succeed in this crazy business. I would like to thank my brother, for dying conveniently and in a timely fashion, under mysterious circumstances, baving the road for my succession. I would also like to thank the nations of the world, without whose mad blind-eye turning skills I would never have gotten to where I am today. But most imbortantly, I would like to thank my good friend and benefactor, for his staunch subbort and for always having my back – Bresident Butin! Hey Buddy!” He waved at the aforementioned head of state, which happened to be in attendance.

By way of acknowledgement of such high praise, the Lich-King inclined its head in a minute fashion.

“So what do I get?” asked Basher. “Is it a golden statuette? Asma would love one of those, for her next Vanity Fair sbread.”

“What you get,” said the Host, voice growing deeper, Trumpets of Doom echoing his every syllable, “is Celestial Justice!” pristine white wings sprouted from his back. “I am the Archangel Gabriel! Righting all inequities in the world is forbidden, but God does allow me one evildoer per century. Now I shall take you to your just deserts!” thus saying, he grabbed the Dictator, and started flapping his wings.

“Butin! Help me!” cried the Best Monster of the year. But the Lich-King shrugged impassively and left to go suck the life energy out of his people.

Angel and prey began rising up.

“You!” cried the Syrian, espying a member of the United Nations Human Rights Council, who also happened to be in attendance. “Tell the UN I’ll take the immunity deal! Tell them I’ll go to The Hague! As representative of the human race, beseech this entity for my release to face mortal justice!”

“Sorry, effendi,” yelled the man at the rapidly diminishing dot in the sky. “Far too busy working on my yearly condemnation of Israel! We aim to set a new Guinness world record this time!”

Soon the airborne duo vanished from sight.

“Vell,” said Victoria to no one in particular. “I vill surely vin come next avard season!”

But that surety wavered on her way back home to Transylvania, for she had ample opportunity to reflect upon her remaining mortal competition…

[Madness]

Not sure it was done by drones (the range is too far). As Syria does have something of an air defense (and now with Russian infusion of S-300's, will have a superior air defense), the launch was most likely made from outside Syrian territory.

Israel and Syria have a border, no?

Though, of course, the intraweb is blowing up with back and forth over Jordanian complicity.

Also, I'm not sure the latest Israeli retaliation was drone, it looks to be armed aircraft; I was trying to suggest that much of the rhetoric of the "official narratives" coming out of different regions is geared towards Israeli/US involvement on one side and Iranian/Russian involvement on the other. Stuck in the middle are these semi-sovereign states and then Hezbollah(/various armed religious entities).

Governance doesn't but can't think in terms of elected process, however that might be part and parcel of its interaction with the plebletariat. I'm not really disagreeing with you, Salamander, just looking to contribute to a greater depth of discussion.

The United States (and whomever uses it as a seat of power) needs to continue (in lieu of real competitors - though China is engineering hard) the developing gap between those with armed drones and those without. Currently, something like forty countries use drones for surveillance with the U.K. (NATO), Israel, and USA all using drones to conduct armed and mortal strikes - Obama is patiently consolidating exercise of lethal drone force in the Oval Office, making the President the final arbiter of life and death at the hands of his robot army.

There's also AFRICOM - but I feel I'm off topic.

Bottom line: there are a number of countries involved in civil and religious disagreements in the Middle-East. Yes, the loss of human life, especially on such arbitrary scales is something to raise a fist about. But as citizens of countries not explicitly involved in these engagements, we should think about what our Governance gains by the involvement of our nations before we blindly embody this All Life is Sacred, Damn the Costs rhetoric that the Western Empire seems to have been conditioned to believe.

USA, NATO, or UN involvement in Syria may take the form of increased drone warfare, setting more precedent for strikes against its own ex-patriot citizens (soon extending to include "foreign enemies"). Getting boots on the ground is expected, while getting drones in the sky thoughtlessly extends the complicity and acceptance by all peoples, foreign and domestic.

Just thoughts.

Sweet story.

[Horza]

if that's true, then so is my statement.

so does Ansar al Sharia exist, or not? What about the other radical Islamic militias in Libya?

I'm not saying that all Libyans are violent, radical Islamists. I'm just saying that the lack of government control means that the organized radical Islamists who do exists present significant risks due to their militias. That is especially true in Eastern Libya.

Now that's a little more nuanced than 'dominated by radical Islamists'.

I don't know what to tell you, FLOW, Libya has always lacked those layers of political infrastructure that most nation-states take for granted, even the Italians ruled there without much administrative baggage. You seem to resent Libyans for this, but that doesn't seem terribly reasonable to me.

[Horza]

Apologies if I missed it but I've stumbled into General Chatter for the first time and this was the most interesting thread on the first page. Also, cheers to the many of you who I do and don't recognize for your intelligent discourse. These might truly be the last bastions of thoughtful and communicative discussion among the plebes and proletariat (the kind that make monitoring algorithms go mad for reckless dissent :D).

So I'm curious and I'll apologize for my ignorance early; it is 3 a.m. here [when I wrote this], I skimmed from pages 4-9 (though I read decently quickly), and I'm Canadian... which seriously jeopardizes the legitimacy of my commentary ;).

How come no one has mentioned drone strikes? Even a curious glance at the latest information, which I do make attempts to monitor, suggests that Israel has already exercised lethal force a number of times, even citing American advocacy (in the form of diplomat agreements?) based on the requisite conditions for strikes: one of which was the use of chemical weaponry while another is the possible "Hezbollah drone," swiftly consolidated into allegations that Russia's given the "rebels" weaponry.

Drones are slow, defenceless aircraft. They're good for hanging around in places where there's no air defences (Somalia, Afghanistan) or the state is complicit in their use (Pakistan, Yemen) observing people and dispatching the odd missile; not as strike aircraft against hostile states.

For these reasons they'd be of some use to Assad but nobody else.

[Former Lord of Winterfell]

Now that's a little more nuanced than 'dominated by radical Islamists'.

You should reread my initial statement because I never said the country was dominated by radical Islamists. I said that because of the weak central government, about half the country was either lawless or dominated by radical Islamists.

I don't know what to tell you, FLOW, Libya has always lacked those layers of political infrastructure that most nation-states take for granted, even the Italians ruled there without much administrative baggage. You seem to resent Libyans for this, but that doesn't seem terribly reasonable to me.

I don't resent them at all. It's their country. My point is only that a big chunk of the country is not safe for American diplomats because of the lack of a host government capable of providing effective security over outlying regions.

[Horza]

You should retread my initial statement because I never said the country was dominated by radical Islamists. I said that because of the weak central government, about half the country was either lawless or dominated by radical Islamists.

Except there's a difference between radical Islamists operating in lawless territory and territory being lawless OR dominated by radical Islamists. If you have information to the effect that parts of Libya are 'dominated', which per your contrast with 'lawless' must mean 'ruled' by radical Islamists that would be news to me.

[Former Lord of Winterfell]

Except there's a difference between radical Islamists operating in lawless territory and territory being lawless OR dominated by radical Islamists. If you have information to the effect that parts of Libya are 'dominated', which per your contrast with 'lawless' must mean 'ruled' by radical Islamists that would be news to me.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL5N0E92DL20130531?irpc=932

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/2909693

http://m.guardiannews.com/world/2013/apr/28/libya-mali-islamist-violence-tripoli

again, the point isn't that radical Islamists are going to take over the country. The point is they have some safe havens, and therefore threaten large chunks with potential terrorist strikes, religious intimidation, etc.

I personally don't care what they do as long as we stay the hell out.

[Urine Greyjoy]

Gods bless Assad, crush these lunatic cannibals.

I am going to laugh when he prevails and all his commy white supporters shit themselves. The SAA has been kicking pure ass in their latest offensive. John McCain can pose in photos with his Al Qaeda buddies all he wants, it won't change anything.

[leon grayboat]

Gods bless Assad, crush these lunatic cannibals.

I am going to laugh when he prevails and all his commy white supporters shit themselves. The SAA has been kicking pure ass in their latest offensive. John McCain can pose in photos with his Al Qaeda buddies all he wants, it won't change anything.

Just because you are against intervention doesn't mean you have to support Assad's regime.

Assad's regime is no better than the rebels.

[thecryptile]

leon grayboat knows what he's talking about! I'm against US intervention myself, as anyone who has read this thread can see, but I don't support the Assad regime or its tyranny. As an American, I see little difference between a militant Shiite regime and a militant Sunni regime, both of which are tied to terror groups such as Hezbollah and al-Qaeda.

[Frog Eater]

Just because you are against intervention doesn't mean you have to support Assad's regime.

Assad's regime is no better than the rebels.

Can't we say that Assad's regime is better than the rebels? It has been stated that the rebels are made up mostly of foreign fighters and terrorists trying to topple the Syrian government and install an Al-quada and other extremist friendly government. Isn't that exactly what we have spent a decade fighting in Afghanistan?

[Shryke]

Can't we say that Assad's regime is better than the rebels? It has been stated that the rebels are made up mostly of foreign fighters and terrorists trying to topple the Syrian government and install an Al-quada and other extremist friendly government. Isn't that exactly what we have spent a decade fighting in Afghanistan?

Who's it been stated by and why are they spouting off stupid shit?

[Shryke]

Also:

http://www.guardian....sarin-uk-france

The British and French governments have said that medical samples smuggled out of Syria have tested positive for the nerve agent sarin, and added that they have shown the evidence to a UN investigation.

The Foreign Office confirmed that body fluids collected from victims of one or more attacks in the country were found to contain a chemical fingerprint of sarin at the Ministry of Defence's Porton Down facility in Wiltshire. In Paris, the French foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, said he had passed similar evidence to the head of the UN inquiry into chemical weapon use in Syria, Ake Sellström.

Appearing on French TV news, Fabius said France had no doubt that the gas was used and that in the second case, there was no doubt it was used by the regime and its accomplices as there was evidence all the way along the chain.

He added that a line had been crossed and Paris would speak to Washington and London about how to react, saying that "all the options are on the table".

[Frog Eater]

Who's it been stated by and why are they spouting off stupid shit?

By the Washington Post and the UK Telegraph But that's stupid shit, amiright?

[The Progressive]

Things are not looking good for the rebels with syrian government forces recapturing a major town.

I can't decide if assad is tywin lannister or joffrey.

[Shryke]

By the Washington Post and the UK Telegraph But that's stupid shit, amiright?

Those links do not say what you claim.

All they say is that their are Islamic-based elements to the rebels and also elements of the rebels tied to AQ. There are alot of rebel groups, with a wide variety of stances.

[Frog Eater]

And Al-Qaeda is working with these rebels out of the goodness of their hearts, not because they want a government that will be friendly to them in exchange for helping them come to power. Now I see, how naive of me. Thanks!

[leon grayboat]

Can't we say that Assad's regime is better than the rebels? It has been stated that the rebels are made up mostly of foreign fighters and terrorists trying to topple the Syrian government and install an Al-quada and other extremist friendly government. Isn't that exactly what we have spent a decade fighting in Afghanistan?

There are foreign fighters among the rebels. But the vast majority are Syrians. Al-Nusra even split in two when they made their Al-Qaeda affiliation official. A lot of their recruits just joined them because they were the best trained/funded group.

The biggest rebel group have even said that there will be another war when Assad's regime falls. This time against the Al-Nusra front and their allies.

Things are not looking good for the rebels with syrian government forces recapturing a major town.

I can't decide if assad is tywin lannister or joffrey.

More like Tommen, with Iran holding the strings.

The rebels still hold half the country. It's going to be a long and brutal war...

[Fez]

Unless there'

The rebels still hold half the country. It's going to be a long and brutal war...

Unless there's foreign intervention, I tend to think this'll eventually end in a stalemate with the Assad government still representing 'Syria' on the international stage but there being a vast autonomous region in rebel-hands that it has zero control over; with fighting between the two winding down to the skirmish level on account of enormous exhaustion on all sides.

Maybe in 20 years, Assad will be able to pull a Sri Lanka and recapture the rebel areas, but it doesn't seem like something that'll happen anytime soon.