R + L = J v 50

[Starkley]

Haha well actually when the half-maester suggested to JC that he marry YG to another house to build a strong alliance after they landed in Westeros and took back JC's home, JC refused saying that YG must remain available for Dany, so clearly JC still thinks she's very vital in the sense of validation.....I think it will come down to Dany having two candidates for the "mummers dragon" in YG and Jon Snow, and whoever's side she chooses will either be her salvation or her doom. Will she see the truth for what it really is and interpret YG as the pretender? Or will she misjudge the situation and falsely interpret Jon Snow who has no obvious physical Targaryen features and is of the North as the pretender?

Haha well actually when the half-maester suggested to JC that he marry YG to another house to build a strong alliance after they landed in Westeros and took back JC's home, JC refused saying that YG must remain available for Dany, so clearly JC still thinks she's very vital in the sense of validation.....I think it will come down to Dany having two candidates for the "mummers dragon" in YG and Jon Snow, and whoever's side she chooses will either be her salvation or her doom. Will she see the truth for what it really is and interpret YG as the pretender? Or will she misjudge the situation and falsely interpret Jon Snow who has no obvious physical Targaryen features and is of the North as the pretender?

:agree: Which is why I believe Tyrion could play a vital role in how Dany views Jon and YG (if he makes it to her) :dunno: . Tyrion has had the chance to get a sense of both boys and at times can be a good judge of character. Now will Dany listen to his advice or will she do her own thing?

[Maxpey]

@finger and Maxpey As you can see from the quote above it's already been confirmed by Ser Jorah himself in ASOS that Varys indeed informed him of the poison attempts, and that Varys wanted Jorah to watch Dany closely but to make sure she remained unharmed.....

I thought finger was asking why Varys would arrange the assassination on Robert's orders and then subsequently warn Jorah about it. It does seem somewhat risky. Why not just lie to Robert and tell him that you dispatched an assassin but he failed? Why actually have the assassin get close enough to Dany that he might have been successful?

[Jon Icefyre]

I thought finger was asking why Varys would arrange the assassination on Robert's orders and then subsequently warn Jorah about it. It does seem somewhat risky. Why not just lie to Robert and tell him that you dispatched an assassin but he failed? Why actually have the assassin get close enough to Dany that he might have been successful?

Because Varys needed to provoke Khal Drogo into wanting to cross the narrow sea and invade Westeros. And the poison attempt did exactly that. Drogo had no desire to invade Westeros whatsoever until after he found out Roberts tried to have his Khaleesi(Dany) poisoned....

[Maxpey]

Because Varys needed to provoke Khal Drogo into wanting to cross the narrow sea and invade Westeros. And the poison attempt did exactly that. Drogo had no desire to invade Westeros whatsoever until after he found out Roberts tried to have his Khaleesi(Dany) poisoned....

That's what I figured.

[Jon Icefyre]

That's what I figured.

Ya but I mean it doesn't really matter what lllyrio/Varys original intention with Dany was either way at this point, because as of now current Dany is a threat to be reckoned with and their current stance is they need Dany to validate YG's claim. So that's really all that matters at this point, although I do think if Dany doesn't work out for some reason the back up plan would probably be to marry YG to Arianne seeing as though YG is supposed to be the son of Elia Martell, so a marriage with Arianne could be seen as somewhat of a validation that the Martells accept him as the son of Elia and therefore the son of Rhaegar, making it more likely that the realm would acknowledge him as well. It's not nearly as validating as a marriage with Dany, but still it's a good backup plan.

[finger]

One possibility is that Varys tipped off Jorah about the assassination attempt so that he could foil it, and thus get Dany to think that she could trust Jorah. I am sure Varys was also counting on the the fact that Robert's attempt to assassinate Dany would also anger Khal Drogo, and make him even more likely to seek revenge by taking his horde to invade Westeros.

It does seem a little risky, in that there was no guarantee that Jorah would be able to prevent the assassination and Dany would die. However, if you subscribe to the theory that Dany was expendable to Varys at this point in time (she didn't have her dragons yet) then her dying would so enrage Khal Drogo that he would seek revenge by invading Westeros. Since the Dothraki invasion was what Varys was hoping for, it didn't really matter to him how it came about. In essence, the assassination attempt would have been a "win-win" for Varys either way.

In fact, they'd been wolfing down spiced sauccisses as if the world were going to rot that day. They could have all been poisoned before Jorah arrived.

They'd been years preparing it and it was too big a stake so what Varys could win. He should have control over the wineseller, even though we don't know how.

[finger]

@finger and Maxpey As you can see from the quote above it's already been confirmed by Ser Jorah himself in ASOS that Varys indeed informed him of the poison attempts, and that Varys wanted Jorah to watch Dany closely but to make sure she remained unharmed.....

Actually, I take the scene from the Dany's PoV in AGOT. At that moment, we had the first meeting of the Counsel, the conversation between Varys and Ned, Jorah's insistence in sneaking away,.. it was pretty clear that Jorah had been alerted.

The problem is that Varys prompted the intent of murdering Danaerys, and I don't see what he earned,... I think it only makes sense if he was ready to avoid it, and it seems he wasn't that ready.

No big deal, anyway.

[finger]

Because Varys needed to provoke Khal Drogo into wanting to cross the narrow sea and invade Westeros. And the poison attempt did exactly that. Drogo had no desire to invade Westeros whatsoever until after he found out Roberts tried to have his Khaleesi(Dany) poisoned....

But the wineseller gave Dany a cask, so that she drank it with Khal Drogo.

Should Jorah not have prevented it, there would be no Dany, no Khal, no Dothraki,... and Viserys was dead,... all those years plot going to the gutters.

He should have a Plan B, or it doesn't makes sense.

Eta: the wineseller might have been instructed to give the cask, so that Jorah had the time to prevent them from drinking it. This way, the wineseller would be a pawn gambit to entice Khal Drogo. I imagine cyvasse as a mix of checks an backgammon,...

[Jon Icefyre]

But the wineseller gave Dany a cask, so that she drank it with Khal Drogo.

Should Jorah not nave prevented it, there would be no Dany, no Khal, no Dothraki,... and Viserys was dead,... all those years plot going to the gutters.

He should have a Plan B, or it doesn't makes sense.

Varys employed the wineseller so it's likely he was having the wineseller followed along with the caravan that contained his letters to Ser Jorah therefore making sure the timing was right/perfect for Ser Jorah to prevent it. I think some of you forget that it was indeed Varys actions, but it was GRRM who wrote the thing lol. We don't have to worry about what ifs because GRRM wrote it so that Ser Jorah would prevent the poison from reaching Dany, it doesn't matter what would have happened if Varys plan didn't work out and Ser Jorah failed in preventing the poison attempt, because GRRM wrote it so that the plan worked and that's really all that matters.

[Maxpey]

Ya but I mean it doesn't really matter what lllyrio/Varys original intention with Dany was either way at this point, because as of now current Dany is a threat to be reckoned with and their current stance is they need Dany to validate YG's claim. So that's really all that matters at this point, although I do think if Dany doesn't work out for some reason the back up plan would probably be to marry YG to Arianne seeing as though YG is supposed to be the son of Elia Martell, so a marriage with Arianne could be seen as somewhat of a validation that the Martells accept him as the son of Elia and therefore the son of Rhaegar, making it more likely that the realm would acknowledge him as well. It's not nearly as validating as a marriage with Dany, but still it's a good backup plan.

It's also a pretty good back up plan considering Doran Martell has a fresh host at his disposal. Pretty shrewd of him to stay out of the War of the Five Kings thus far.

[Jon Icefyre]

It's also a pretty good back up plan considering Doran Martell has a fresh host at his disposal. Pretty shrewd of him to stay out of the War of the Five Kings thus far.

:agree: Well said

[Alia of the knife]

Going back to Varys and his machinations, I wonder if he doesn't know about Jon's idenity, and if Arya really escaped his "little birds" notice, or if he didn't just let her go?

Also, a little SciFi Misc. on the uses of ice and fire:

In "Stark Trek: Into the Darkness," they used Cold Fusion to neutralize a Volcano, so it makes one wonder if Dragons would be useful at all in a blizzard, or full on Winter?

Weren't Aegon the Conquerers Dragons grounded in a rainstorm in the Riverlands?

[Jon Icefyre]

Also, a little SciFi Misc. on the uses of ice and fire:

In "Stark Trek: Into the Darkness," they used Cold Fusion to neutralize a Volcano, so it makes one wonder if Dragons would be useful at all in a blizzard, or full on Winter?

Weren't Aegon the Conquerers Dragons grounded in a rainstorm in the Riverlands?

Ya I've always wondered this too, I know everyone loves the dragons(including myself) but I could totally see GRRM killing off the dragons in the battle with the Others even if they are victorious. Dragons are a powerful weapon and are pretty much as badass as you can get lol, but they're also dangerous, wild, unpredictable creatures that are capable of wrecking havoc on a horrific scale, they'd probably do a lot of damage in terms of innocent casualties, and are seen in a lot of fantasy novels as the antagonists.

OTOH the magical vibe dragons seem to have could be the key to perhaps shortening the supposedly 'long winter' that has just hit Westeros. It would also be interesting to see how the dragons effect, interact, and correlate with the magic from TCOTF, I mean as far as I can remember the dragons have never been in the presence of the magic from TCOTF(I could be wrong though) so the situation would certainly be an unprecedented one. But if the dragons survived and thrived with a select few houses of Westeros for years to come after the second battle for dawn I would totally be content with that ending as well though.

[Queen Nymeria Martell]

Varys employed the wineseller so it's likely he was having the wineseller followed along with the caravan that contained his letters to Ser Jorah therefore making sure the timing was right/perfect for Ser Jorah to prevent it. I think some of you forget that it was indeed Varys actions, but it was GRRM who wrote the thing lol. We don't have to worry about what ifs because GRRM wrote it so that Ser Jorah would prevent the poison from reaching Dany, it doesn't matter what would have happened if Varys plan didn't work out and Ser Jorah failed in preventing the poison attempt, because GRRM wrote it so that the plan worked and that's really all that matters.

Maybe I am wrong but did anybody drink the wine? Perhaps it was not poisoned at all and the wineseller did not know that...

[Queen Nymeria Martell]

Okay, I think I have the right link for the Ice and Fire Animal Project:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/85411-ice-and-fire-animal-project-wolves/unread/

Thank You :)

[Jon Icefyre]

Maybe I am wrong but did anybody drink the wine? Perhaps it was not poisoned at all and the wineseller did not know that...

Ya that's certainly a possibility as well.

[Alia of the knife]

Thank You :)

Your welcome! :D

Ya I've always wondered this too, I know everyone loves the dragons(including myself) but I could totally see GRRM killing off the dragons in the battle with the Others even if they are victorious. Dragons are a powerful weapon and are pretty much as badass as you can get lol, but they're also dangerous, wild, unpredictable creatures that are capable of wrecking havoc on a horrific scale, they'd probably do a lot of damage in terms of innocent casualties, and are seen in a lot of fantasy novels as the antagonists.

OTOH the magical vibe dragons seem to have could be the key to perhaps shortening the supposedly 'long winter' that has just hit Westeros. It would also be interesting to see how the dragons effect, interact, and correlate with the magic from TCOTF, I mean as far as I can remember the dragons have never been in the presence of the magic from TCOTF(I could be wrong though) so the situation would certainly be an unprecedented one. But if the dragons survived and thrived with a select few houses of Westeros for years to come after the second battle for dawn I would totally be content with that ending as well though.

I think that's why it's important that someone embody the balance between the two elements. Fire doesn't necessarily destroy ice, but Ice doesn't necessarily destroy fire, so there has to be an equality as both tend to be "cleansing" factors in Nature.

And yes, it may actually be a strange, but egalitarian relationship between the CoTF and the dragons which are technically enslaved and controlled by the Valaryians.

Given over to nature, and they can be who they are, but then again, being what they are is a danger unless there is a way to be "one" with them as in the power of the Warg.

[corbon]

Naw sorry, the Blackfyre references in ADWD are too great to just simply be ignored, House Blackfyre is most definitely back in play.

Except that outside the GC, there basically aren't any...

The non-GC references are nearly all invented by fans. Like making Serra a Blackfyre just because she had Valyrian hair, common in Lys.

[Jon Icefyre]

Except that outside the GC, there basically aren't any...

The non-GC references are nearly all invented by fans. Like making Serra a Blackfyre just because she had Valyrian hair, common in Lys.

No, I'd say lllyrio's conversation to Tyrion is another huge indicator, along with the washed up sign, and the presence of the GC, not mention the fact that GRRM decided to point out in the books that the Blackfyre's could have lasted through their female line. And then yes there's lllyrio's description of Serra and also the fact that Varys claims to be a Targ supporter and yet he's done suspicious things like warn the mad king about Rhaegar's plot to call a meeting among the lords at the TOH to discuss unseating Aerys. I mean if Varys was truly a Targ supporter and just wanted the best Targ king possible for the realm then I don't see why he would try to foil Rhaegar's plans to unseat Aerys when it was clear to everyone else in the realm that Rhaegar would have made for a much better king than Aerys.

Also as some others have mentioned on here, it's extremely suspicious that Varys never actually addresses 'Aegon' by his surname of Targaryen or mentions Rhaegar when he's talking to Kevan Lannister about YG and you would think that since this was Kevan's last dying moments that Varys would tell him the truth. There have been some other indicators in the text as well that don't necessarily say YG is a Blackfyre but do say he's a fake, and yet Dany is supposed to run into the 'mummer's dragon' at some point who is most likely YG. 'Mummer' means actor which is something Varys has admitted he used to be professionally, so by 'Mummer's dragon' that could simply mean a dragon(black or red but real) under Varys control. But if YG is truly Aegon Targaryen then I can't possibly see how Dany could rightfully see him as an antagonist to her or a pretender seeing as though his claim would be stronger than hers... But wait if YG is indeed a fake, then how can he still be a dragon? Well if he's not really Aegon Targaryen and yet he's still a dragon, I'd say a black dragon(Blackfyre) is more likely than most. Again I don't think it's a coincidence that the book that has the heaviest amount of Blackfyre references(ADWD) also happens to be the same book that YG appears in........

You don't have to believe or agree with it, it's just my opinion and you have yours and I respect that so we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. But hey that's fine after all human beings aren't made to agree on everything. :thumbsup:

[Ygrain]

No, I'd say lllyrio's conversation to Tyrion is another huge indicator, along with the washed up sign, and the presence of the GC, not mention the fact that GRRM decided to point out in the books that the Blackfyre's could have lasted through their female line. And then yes there's lllyrio's description of Serra and also the fact that Varys claims to be a Targ supporter and yet he's done suspicious things like warn the mad king about Rhaegar's plot to call a meeting among the lords at the TOH to discuss unseating Aerys. I mean if Varys was truly a Targ supporter and just wanted the best Targ king possible for the realm then I don't see why he would try to foil Rhaegar's plans to unseat Aerys when it was clear to everyone else in the realm that Rhaegar would have made for a much better king that Aerys.

Also as some others have mentioned on here, it's extremely suspicious that Varys never actually addresses 'Aegon' by his surname of Targaryen or mentions Rhaegar when he's talking to Kevan Lannister about YG and you would think that since this was Kevan's last dying moments that Varys would tell him the truth. There have been some other indicators in the text as well that don't necessarily say YG is a Blackfyre but do say he's a fake, and yet Dany is supposed to run into the 'mummer's dragon' at some point who is most likely YG. Mummer means actor which is something Varys has admitted he used to be professionally, so by 'Mummer's dragon' that could simply mean a dragon(black or red but real) under Varys control. But if YG is truly Aegon Targaryen then I can't possibly see how Dany could rightfully see him as an antagonist to her or a pretender seeing as though his claim would be stronger than hers... But wait if YG is indeed a fake then how can he be a dragon? Well if he's not really Aegon Targaryen and yet he's still a dragon, I'd say a black dragon(Blackfyre) is more likely than most. Again I don't think it's a coincidence that the book that has the heaviest amount of Blackfyre references(ADWD) also happens to be the same book that YG appears in........

You don't have to believe or agree with it, it's just my opinion and you have yours and I respect that so we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. But hey that's fine after all human beings aren't made to agree on everything. :thumbsup:

Speaking of prophecies, I usually tie "the mummer's dragon" with "slayer of lies" which appears among Dany's "titles" in HotU and Moquorro's "dragons true and false", which, unless it is a mystical mumbo jumbo, means that there is a false Targ out there.