R+L=J v. 52

[The guy from the Vale]

I hope this is the right place for this question... I just finished the books & have been super shocked to find out so many people think that Jon's father is Rhaegar. I have been super convinced that John's father was Robert Baratheon.

Is there some reason this theory has been dismissed that I'm unaware of?

My reasons...

(a) Robert was also in love with Lyanna. And he probably had sex with her; at one point Cersei complains that Robert used to cry out Lyanna's name in bed. So there's the possibility of a pregnancy.

( B) Jon's coloring. GRRM makes a big deal of the fact that the Baratheon coloring tends to breed true in Robert's sons, and Jon has Stark features but Baratheon coloring.

By contrast: Rhaegar would have had purple eyes. SOME of the Stark children, like Arya and Sansa, have blue eyes. So the Starks pass on recessive blue-eyed genes. Which means that a child of Lyanna and Rhaegar ought to have blue or purple eyes. Jon's are dark.

I've also read an interview where GRRM says that he's really weak thinking about and remembering eye color, so I doubt this is really THE clue, but after such a big deal was made about Baratheon coloring, it seems like a pretty obvious example of a plot point doing double duty, with the issue of C+J's incest distracting from the subject of Jon's parentage.

© In the first book Ned has memories of playing with Robert's bastard babies, but is vague about which ones.

Given the length of this topic I can't be the first person to bring this up. Is there an obvious answer?

Yes, the timeline shoots it down. Basically, Jon was definitely conceived after the start of the Rebellion, at a time when Lyanna was already "kidnapped".

I also seriously doubt Lyanna and Robert ever had sex; Robert may have loved her (I doubt that, but oh well), but she definitely didn't love Robert.

Jon also doesn't have Baratheon coloring, but purely Stark coloring: brown hair and dark grey eyes, not black hair and blue eyes. Arya and Sansa also both have grey eyes in the books, iirc.

As for Ned playing with Robert's bastard baby, that was almost surely Mya Stone.

[bobbybuilderton]

The obvious answer is that R+L=J has more evidence, and the evidence it has is more convincing.

I'm sure people have thought of every possible combination of people for Jon's parents. But this idea is still the most commonly held because it makes the most sense. Why would Lyanna not tell Robert that they had a child together? He wanted her and probably would have taken good care of him over his other bastards. Most likely would have considered him his true son, since Lyanna was supposed to be his. Why would she not tell Ned? I don't know if you've seen the article on tower of the hand, but go read it and see which one makes more sense.

http://towerofthehand.com/essays/chrisholden/jon_snows_parents.html

[Jory Cassel]

In addition to what theguyfromthevale has said, I can't think of a convincing reason why Ned would hide away Robert's son from him.

[Ygrain]

Jon also doesn't have Baratheon coloring, but purely Stark coloring: brown hair and dark grey eyes, not black hair and blue eyes. Arya and Sansa also both have grey eyes in the books, iirc.

As for Ned playing with Robert's bastard baby, that was almost surely Mya Stone.

Sansa has blue eyes :P

And yes, it was definitely Mya - it's the bastard from the Vale that even Lyanna had heard about, and Ned recalls that he held her in his arms.

Oh, and welcome to the forums, Albertine :-)

[J. Stargaryen]

Indeed. On a side note, Jon as R+L's offspring is not only the synthesis of ice and fire but also of north and south: born in Dorne, grew up in WF and ended on the Wall. All in all he represents the ultimate 'unifying force' (wink wink, nudge, nudge).

This reminds me that I once referred to him as "a vessel of unification."

<snip>

Great analysis, and I never thought of it that way.

Jon has Dorne in his bloodline as much as Winterfell. I suppose I "knew" that along with the Targaryens, Rhaegar would also be a connection to the Martells and Dorne, something that wily Doran may not be opposed to playing upon if he survives long enough to find out about Jon.

Thanks. :)

It also occurred to me that Princess (that was Promised) might not be the most fitting title for someone who has already named herself Queen on multiple occasions.

The main problem I see is that every clue point to Danaerys being TPTWP. Aemon named her, she was born between salt and smoke, she hatched three dragons from three stones, and so on,...

I can't magine she's not, it'd be deceit, imo.

Edit: Unless the three headed dragon means that TPTWP are three people :dunno:

It is true that Dany literally woke dragons out of stone. Which will make for a very persuasive piece of evidence the day that GRRM abandons symbolism. Remember that in THK and TMK the prophetic "dragons" aren't literally dragons, but Targaryens; Baelor Breakspear and Egg.

[Albertine]

Thanks for that link, bobbybuilderton. It does explain the R+L theory very well.

Personally, I will revise my assumptions to a 50/50 split. The R+L theory is very sound.

But I still think the Lyanna+Robert theory works. I was looking around for a clear timeline that would show dates--when Jon was born, when Robb was born, how long the Rebellion lasted. It seems like these dates are a LITTLE bit vague. Apparently the Rebellion lasted around two years. And apparently Jon and Robb were both 14 at the start of the books so they were conceived around the same time. Because of Robb's conception, we know that happened at the very beginning of the Rebellion.

Ned's memories of the Tower of Joy do always make it sound like he found Lyanna like, minutes after she gave birth. But either the Rebellion was really short or Jon was already ~1 year old at that point. Either way, Jon could have been conceived before Lyanna was in the Tower...or must have been conceived very soon after her arrival. (and I believe it's common to breast-feed babies until they're 2, wean them before 3, so he would have still needed a wet nurse).

So then the question is...why would Ned keep Jon's parentage a secret if he were Robert's baby? Obviously, because Lyanna made him promise to keep the parentage secret.

The secret parentage thing does make more strategic sense with a Targaryen baby than a Baratheon baby. The legitimate children of Rhaegar had been slaughtered by the time Ned found Lyanna, which didn't bode well for a newborn Targaryen. But it's not clear to me that Lyanna was in any state to be catching up on current events or making strategic decisions, since she was dying. But maybe.

It's Lyanna's wishes that we need to consider here, her death wish, and it's not necessarily a strategic one. If Robert raped her, for example, she might want to keep the child away from him for that reason alone. What mother wants to deliver her child into the hands of her rapist? Even if he is a King? (this explanation could work for either Robert OR Rhaegar, except that Robert is a more likely rapist--as her fiance, he might have felt he had every right--and Rhaegar a much less likely one).

If Robert raped Lyanna, that would give Rhaegar a good reason to kidnap her--for her own safety. Maybe he'd have hoped to have children with her himself, if she hadn't gotten pregnant, or after she gave birth. But he died.

If Lyanna had definitely conceived after she arrived in the Tower, there would be no doubt. But there IS doubt.

We know that Ned resented his promise to Lyanna, and all the lies he told as a result. I think that if Lyanna had given birth to Rhaegar's child, Ned would have had an easier time justifying the deception to himself, because he WAS a strategic thinker, and he'd have preferred claiming Jon as his own to watching Robert slaughter another baby.

Ned had his fight with Robert about slaughtering Targaryen babies in King's Landing. Before he went to find Lyanna, before he knew that she had a child. So that position is pre-established, not a selfish consequence of finding out his own family contained a Targaryen baby.

Coloring-wise...are we sure that Jon's eyes are blue/gray in the books? I might just be thinking of Kit Harrington, who DEFINITELY has Baratheon coloring. But show coloring isn't always perfect.

[Albertine]

Added note: there's also this one-year gap between the tourney at Harrenhal and Rhaegar's kidnapping.

So what spurred Rhaegar to DO the kidnapping?

(1) Rhaegar and Lyanna had a sweet romance, culminating in his decision to sweep her away for some fun times in the Tower.

(2) Robert, being engaged to Lyanna, resented Rhaegar's interest in her. If Lyanna returned Rhaegar's interest, Robert would have resented that, too. Since he loved Lyanna, he might have decided to rush the marriage. He might have decided the best way to hurry things along, and get Rhaegar out of the way, was to get Lyanna pregnant.

At which point Lyanna, if she'd been unwilling, would have been in a difficult situation. If she'd asked her family for help, they would not have offered any. The Starks would have done exactly what Robert wanted: they'd have rushed the marriage. So instead she asked Rhaegar for help. And off they go to the Tower to have a sad, sad time together, enjoying their doomed love even as Lyanna carried her rapist's baby & war spread.

Which one sounds more GRRM-like?

[The guy from the Vale]

The rebellion lasted a year in total. After the Sack, it took another 9 months until the rebels had built their fleet and conquered Dragonstone, but for all other intents and purposes, the rebellion was over about one year after it had started.

Ned found Lyanna dying of puerperal fever, which usually kills the mother within one to two weeks after birth. So two weeks are a possible timeline between Jon's birth and Ned's arrival. And yes, there was most likely a wetnurse at the tower.

Still, Ned only married Cat after Brandon was dead, and after returning from the Vale to Winterfell and then to Riverrun- Travel times alone dictate that Ned can't have married Cat until about 3-4 months after Lyanna was abducted... and 4 months are a remarkable difference in toddlers. Cat would have noticed if Jon was that much older than Robb.

As for the coloring... yes, it has been said numerous times that Jon has brown hair and dark grey eyes in the books. No black hair or blue eyes like a Baratheon.

[Jory Cassel]

Thanks for that link, bobbybuilderton. It does explain the R+L theory very well.

Personally, I will revise my assumptions to a 50/50 split. The R+L theory is very sound.

But I still think the Lyanna+Robert theory works. I was looking around for a clear timeline that would show dates--when Jon was born, when Robb was born, how long the Rebellion lasted. It seems like these dates are a LITTLE bit vague. Apparently the Rebellion lasted around two years. And apparently Jon and Robb were both 14 at the start of the books so they were conceived around the same time. Because of Robb's conception, we know that happened at the very beginning of the Rebellion.

Ned's memories of the Tower of Joy do always make it sound like he found Lyanna like, minutes after she gave birth. But either the Rebellion was really short or Jon was already ~1 year old at that point. Either way, Jon could have been conceived before Lyanna was in the Tower...or must have been conceived very soon after her arrival. (and I believe it's common to breast-feed babies until they're 2, wean them before 3, so he would have still needed a wet nurse).

So then the question is...why would Ned keep Jon's parentage a secret if he were Robert's baby? Obviously, because Lyanna made him promise to keep the parentage secret.

The secret parentage thing does make more strategic sense with a Targaryen baby than a Baratheon baby. The legitimate children of Rhaegar had been slaughtered by the time Ned found Lyanna, which didn't bode well for a newborn Targaryen. But it's not clear to me that Lyanna was in any state to be catching up on current events or making strategic decisions, since she was dying. But maybe.

It's Lyanna's wishes that we need to consider here, her death wish, and it's not necessarily a strategic one. If Robert raped her, for example, she might want to keep the child away from him for that reason alone. What mother wants to deliver her child into the hands of her rapist? Even if he is a King? (this explanation could work for either Robert OR Rhaegar, except that Robert is a more likely rapist--as her fiance, he might have felt he had every right--and Rhaegar a much less likely one).

If Robert raped Lyanna, that would give Rhaegar a good reason to kidnap her--for her own safety. Maybe he'd have hoped to have children with her himself, if she hadn't gotten pregnant, or after she gave birth. But he died.

If Lyanna had definitely conceived after she arrived in the Tower, there would be no doubt. But there IS doubt.

We know that Ned resented his promise to Lyanna, and all the lies he told as a result. I think that if Lyanna had given birth to Rhaegar's child, Ned would have had an easier time justifying the deception to himself, because he WAS a strategic thinker, and he'd have preferred claiming Jon as his own to watching Robert slaughter another baby.

Ned had his fight with Robert about slaughtering Targaryen babies in King's Landing. Before he went to find Lyanna, before he knew that she had a child. So that position is pre-established, not a selfish consequence of finding out his own family contained a Targaryen baby.

Coloring-wise...are we sure that Jon's eyes are blue/gray in the books? I might just be thinking of Kit Harrington, who DEFINITELY has Baratheon coloring. But show coloring isn't always perfect.

This is quite a stretch. The abduction happened (Lyanna is effectively out of reach for Robert), Brandon went to KL, Brandon was imprisoned, Rickard was called to KL and went there, both were murdered, the heads of Robert and Ned were demanded, Jon Arry called his banners, Ned went back to the north which was quite a complicated journey, he called his banners, went to Riverrun and only then married Catelyn and the marriage was consumated. So if they were conceived at the same time as you claim, that excludes Robert from the parentage.

Lyanna was probably at the ToJ when Rhaegar left for war, so fighting between the KG Rhaegar left at the ToJ only leaves one obvious conclusion for Lyanna, Rhaegar and the Targaryens lost the war and thus a targaryen heir would be in danger, not much of a strategic decision, really.

Furthermore, Ned and Robert had a dispute about the brutal killing of the Targaryen-children. And remember how concerned he was about Cersei when Robert slapped her, he inquires how often that has happened, how do you think Ned he would've felt towards Robert if he had indeed raped his little sister? Still Ned never shows a feeling of anger or hate towards Robert.

And why would Robert rape Lyanna in the first place, when he expects to marry her anyway?

edit: too slow

[The guy from the Vale]

Added note: there's also this one-year gap between the tourney at Harrenhal and Rhaegar's kidnapping.

So what spurred Rhaegar to DO the kidnapping?

(1) Rhaegar and Lyanna had a sweet romance, culminating in his decision to sweep her away for some fun times in the Tower.

(2) Robert, being engaged to Lyanna, resented Rhaegar's interest in her. If Lyanna returned Rhaegar's interest, Robert would have resented that, too. Since he loved Lyanna, he might have decided to rush the marriage. He might have decided the best way to hurry things along, and get Rhaegar out of the way, was to get Lyanna pregnant. At which point Lyanna, if she'd been unwilling, would have been in a difficult situation. If she'd asked her family for help, they would not have offered any. They'd have done exactly what Robert wanted: they'd have rushed the marriage. So instead she asked Rhaegar for help. And off they go to the Tower to have a sad, sad time together, enjoying their doomed love even as Lyanna carried her rapist's baby & war spread.

Which one sounds more GRRM-like?

Yes, there was a one-year break, but in that meantime Aegon was born and Elia declared unable to bear further children, which might have been part of Rhaegar's reasons. Another reason might have been that Aerys might have had found out who the Knight of the Laughing Tree was, and then it's Aerys, not Robert, who Rhaegar would be protecting Lyanna from.

[Ygrain]

But I still think the Lyanna+Robert theory works. I was looking around for a clear timeline that would show dates--when Jon was born, when Robb was born, how long the Rebellion lasted. It seems like these dates are a LITTLE bit vague. Apparently the Rebellion lasted around two years. And apparently Jon and Robb were both 14 at the start of the books so they were conceived around the same time. Because of Robb's conception, we know that happened at the very beginning of the Rebellion.

Ned's memories of the Tower of Joy do always make it sound like he found Lyanna like, minutes after she gave birth. But either the Rebellion was really short or Jon was already ~1 year old at that point. Either way, Jon could have been conceived before Lyanna was in the Tower...or must have been conceived very soon after her arrival. (and I believe it's common to breast-feed babies until they're 2, wean them before 3, so he would have still needed a wet nurse).

Jon and Robb were indeed conceived at around the same time, with Jon either being younger or at least being plausibly presentable as younger to Catelyn.

As for the timelines: Robb is conceived on Ned and Cat's wedding night, which was some time after the start of the rebellion. The rebellion lasted for about a year (the two-year period stated in the wiki is misleading, as it probably includes the taking of Dragonstone, which was long after all the fighting was done; Cat's PoV as well as the siege of Storm's End consistently establish a one-year period).

Per GRRM, Jon was born 8-9 months before Dany, who was conceived shortly prior the Sack and born nine months later, which sets Jon's birth at around the Sack or a couple of weeks later.

ETA: ninjaed

[bobbybuilderton]

I still think there is no reason for her to tell Ned to promise her to keep the kid’s parentage a secret if he was a Baratheon. Truly. Robert was going to be king, and he was fighting a war for her. Jon would grow up the son of a king and her brother’s honor would not have a stain upon it. Her son would be trained and educated and loved and have somewhere to belong, perhaps even legitimized. I just don’t see why, as she lay dying, she would tell Ned to promise to keep it a secret. It benefits no one.

[Albertine]

I was using this timeline for Robert's Rebellion: http://towerofthehan..._rebellion.html

If there's a different one that suggests a year-long timeline, I'd like to see it. A year-long timeline makes a Tower conception even more unlikely, however.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Thanks for that link, bobbybuilderton. It does explain the R+L theory very well.

Personally, I will revise my assumptions to a 50/50 split. The R+L theory is very sound.

But I still think the Lyanna+Robert theory works. I was looking around for a clear timeline that would show dates--when Jon was born, when Robb was born, how long the Rebellion lasted. It seems like these dates are a LITTLE bit vague. Apparently the Rebellion lasted around two years. And apparently Jon and Robb were both 14 at the start of the books so they were conceived around the same time. Because of Robb's conception, we know that happened at the very beginning of the Rebellion.

Ned's memories of the Tower of Joy do always make it sound like he found Lyanna like, minutes after she gave birth. But either the Rebellion was really short or Jon was already ~1 year old at that point. Either way, Jon could have been conceived before Lyanna was in the Tower...or must have been conceived very soon after her arrival. (and I believe it's common to breast-feed babies until they're 2, wean them before 3, so he would have still needed a wet nurse).

So then the question is...why would Ned keep Jon's parentage a secret if he were Robert's baby? Obviously, because Lyanna made him promise to keep the parentage secret.

The secret parentage thing does make more strategic sense with a Targaryen baby than a Baratheon baby. The legitimate children of Rhaegar had been slaughtered by the time Ned found Lyanna, which didn't bode well for a newborn Targaryen. But it's not clear to me that Lyanna was in any state to be catching up on current events or making strategic decisions, since she was dying. But maybe.

It's Lyanna's wishes that we need to consider here, her death wish, and it's not necessarily a strategic one. If Robert raped her, for example, she might want to keep the child away from him for that reason alone. What mother wants to deliver her child into the hands of her rapist? Even if he is a King? (this explanation could work for either Robert OR Rhaegar, except that Robert is a more likely rapist--as her fiance, he might have felt he had every right--and Rhaegar a much less likely one).

If Robert raped Lyanna, that would give Rhaegar a good reason to kidnap her--for her own safety. Maybe he'd have hoped to have children with her himself, if she hadn't gotten pregnant, or after she gave birth. But he died.

If Lyanna had definitely conceived after she arrived in the Tower, there would be no doubt. But there IS doubt.

We know that Ned resented his promise to Lyanna, and all the lies he told as a result. I think that if Lyanna had given birth to Rhaegar's child, Ned would have had an easier time justifying the deception to himself, because he WAS a strategic thinker, and he'd have preferred claiming Jon as his own to watching Robert slaughter another baby.

Ned had his fight with Robert about slaughtering Targaryen babies in King's Landing. Before he went to find Lyanna, before he knew that she had a child. So that position is pre-established, not a selfish consequence of finding out his own family contained a Targaryen baby.

Coloring-wise...are we sure that Jon's eyes are blue/gray in the books? I might just be thinking of Kit Harrington, who DEFINITELY has Baratheon coloring. But show coloring isn't always perfect.

A little help with the timeline: GRRM has stated that Jon is 8-9 months older than Dany, whom we know to have been conceived mere days or weeks before the Sack. So Jon's birth can be fixed to between immediately prior to up to 4 weeks following the Sack. Since we are reasonably confident that the Rebellion lasted at least a year then we should be able to safely rule out Robert as a father based on this:

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Chronology

As far as Jon's eyes, definitely grey!

Eta- multi ninja!

[The guy from the Vale]

Ok, that timeline does not give a clear date for Lyanna's abduction. However, I think it's clear from that timeline already that the rebellion proper didn't start until the middle of 282. The Timeline, imo, also places the Sack three months after the birth of Robb Stark, which imo is a false assumption. The rebellion lasted for close to a year, but this timeline somehow assumes the raising of the Tully banners was the start of said rebellion, when the raising of the rebel banners, coupled with the necessary travel times, means that three months must have passed between these two events.

[Ygrain]

I was using this timeline for Robert's Rebellion: http://towerofthehan..._rebellion.html

If there's a different one that suggests a year-long timeline, I'd like to see it. A year-long timeline makes a Tower conception even more unlikely, however.

How so?

ETA: BTW, no-one says that Jon must have been conceived at ToJ, only that he was conceived after Lyanna disappeared with Rhaegar.

[Albertine]

I still think there is no reason for her to tell Ned to promise her to keep the kid’s parentage a secret if he was a Baratheon. Truly. Robert was going to be king, and he was fighting a war for her. Jon would grow up the son of a king and her brother’s honor would not have a stain upon it. Her son would be trained and educated and loved and have somewhere to belong, perhaps even legitimized. I just don’t see why, as she lay dying, she would tell Ned to promise to keep it a secret. It benefits no one.

My reading of this really depends on the assumption that Robert raped Lyanna. (But I explain that in a post above).

We know from Cersei that while plenty of girls were more than willing to sleep with Robert, and he enjoyed that, he was perfectly happy to have sex with an unwilling woman. Cersei. That he would make excuses and never acknowledge how much he'd hurt Cersei, or how rough he was with her. That he didn't even try to change his behavior.

Whereas I'm not sure that anyone really buys the theory that Rhaegar raped Lyanna, we've already got plenty of information about Robert's sexual proclivities. If he wants something, he takes it. If it's a woman, and she enjoys herself, awesome. If not? Oh well.

[The guy from the Vale]

My reading of this really depends on the assumption that Robert raped Lyanna. (But I explain that in a post above).

We know from Cersei that while plenty of girls were more than willing to sleep with Robert, and he enjoyed that, he was perfectly happy to have sex with an unwilling woman. Cersei. That he would make excuses and never acknowledge how much he'd hurt Cersei, or how rough he was with her. That he didn't even try to change his behavior.

Whereas I'm not sure that anyone really buys the theory that Rhaegar raped Lyanna, we've already got plenty of information about Robert's sexual proclivities. If he wants something, he takes it. If it's a woman, and she enjoys herself, awesome. If not? Oh well.

Problem with this is simply that if Robert had raped Lyanna, you wouldn't see Ned being half as dedicated to Robert as he is...

[Jory Cassel]

My reading of this really depends on the assumption that Robert raped Lyanna. (But I explain that in a post above).

We know from Cersei that while plenty of girls were more than willing to sleep with Robert, and he enjoyed that, he was perfectly happy to have sex with an unwilling woman. Cersei. That he would make excuses and never acknowledge how much he'd hurt Cersei, or how rough he was with her. That he didn't even try to change his behavior.

Whereas I'm not sure that anyone really buys the theory that Rhaegar raped Lyanna, we've already got plenty of information about Robert's sexual proclivities. If he wants something, he takes it. If it's a woman, and she enjoys herself, awesome. If not? Oh well.

Did you read my answer? there is simply no way that Ned would still have any positive feeling or loyalty towards Robert if he had raped his little sister Lyanna.

too slow again, guyfromtheVale said it

[Ygrain]

My reading of this really depends on the assumption that Robert raped Lyanna. (But I explain that in a post above).

We know from Cersei that while plenty of girls were more than willing to sleep with Robert, and he enjoyed that, he was perfectly happy to have sex with an unwilling woman. Cersei. That he would make excuses and never acknowledge how much he'd hurt Cersei, or how rough he was with her. That he didn't even try to change his behavior.

Whereas I'm not sure that anyone really buys the theory that Rhaegar raped Lyanna, we've already got plenty of information about Robert's sexual proclivities. If he wants something, he takes it. If it's a woman, and she enjoys herself, awesome. If not? Oh well.

Ned would have killed Robert with his very hands if he had harmed Lyanna, and not be the faithful friend and vassal that he was.

Superfast ninjas here tonight :D