Does Catelyn have any empathy/sympathy for other parents at all?

[Zman1863]

So this is just based on an assumption that Tywin has spies in Robb's camp, even though we don't have those indications?

As was shown earlier, Tywin was prepared to let Jaime die as part of the price of winning. This has been the case since the chapter in which Tywin found out Jaime had been captured. When Tywin refers to Tyrion as "his son," this is how Tyrion, and the reader, knows that Tywin was treating Jaime as good as dead. This seems very convincing evidence that Jaime's safety and return was not a factor in Tywin's moves.

Notably, The Freys and Roose have begun turning against Robb after Blackwater and Winterfell is taken. This is before anyone knows about Jaime's release. Roose is already flirting with a Lannister alliance, because immediately after that council with the Freys, he leads Robett and Helmann into a Lannister trap. Roose has already turned, and given that he and Tywin are always writing letters on page, it doesn't take much to assume they are likely hatching a plot together. My best guess is that Roose informed Tywin of Jaime's escape once Jaime arrives in Harrenhal (right before Tywin commissions that sword).

Even beyond a timeline, it's very clear that Tywin was more than willing to let Jaime die. The RW would have happened if all of those other factors remained the same, changing only the variable of Jaime's escape. Besides, Cat wasn't supposed to be killed. She'd have provided a reasonable hostage to trade for Jaime had she been kept alive.

The scene between Tyrion and Tywin at the Green Fork is only indicative of what Tywin was thinking at that time. Sure it reveals that in some circumstances he would be willing to give Jaime up for dead. But the scene with the new swords indicates that Tywin wasn't feeling that way anymore. The post Green fork scene is stale as to how much Tywin would factor Jaime into his RW plans.

Even if Tywin had learned that Jaime was free just prior to commissioning the swords (and he may have known of it earlier than that since he later claims its through Varys he learns of the release, not Bolton), it does not necessarily mean that he had cast the die on the RW in the incarnation it ended up taking. As my earlier post argued, even if Tywin was plotting with Frey just after Frey pulled his forces from Robb, it doesn't mean that the entire scheme for the RW was concocted and set in stone immediately. Frey had to negotiate to have a wedding in the first place and then the mechanics of what exactly was to take place needed to be settled.

If Tywin had thought Jaime was still a prisoner prior to ironing out the details of the RW I would have to think that he would have insisted that the RW be a capture and not a kill operation. Capturing Robb would have been enough to barter Jaime's release and probably could have been enough to forge an advantageous peace. Going through with the massacre as it happened would have resulted in Jaime's certain execution. It's one thing to be willing to consider your son as good as dead in some circumstances. But it's another to send him to certain death where a minor change in plans would probably save his life.

[FuriousGeorge]

After this point Robb rightly points out that Cat's release of Jamie is unrelated to Karstark's 'treason'. However it does, in my opinion, point out that Karstark felt embolded, justly or no (that is irrelevant for this arguement), to commit the murders. And that Cat indeed knew that it was a consequence of her own actions.

Even if you can argue that Robb excecuting Rickard Karstark made the Karstarks hostile, it started before that, when Rickard felt embolded to murder the captives. This is, then, a direct result of Cat's releasing Jamie. Obviously this wasn't Cat's intention and Karstark's excuses are lame, but there you have it, like it or no.

So you take the way someone personally justifies their actions and just swallow it whole? Because that is how Karstark justifies it you just take it as a given? Lax laws governing the consumption of copyrighted media online embolden me to watch and download everything for free, but the people who make and enforce those laws obviously cannot be said to be directly responsible for me pirating media. It is surely an ridiculously teleological explanation of causation to say that once Catelyn frees Jaime the death of the other Lannister's in captivity is inevitable?

[Minsc]

If Tywin had thought Jaime was still a prisoner prior to ironing out the details of the RW I would have to think that he would have insisted that the RW be a capture and not a kill operation. Capturing Robb would have been enough to barter Jaime's release and probably could have been enough to forge an advantageous peace. Going through with the massacre as it happened would have resulted in Jaime's certain execution. It's one thing to be willing to consider your son as good as dead in some circumstances. But it's another to send him to certain death where a minor change in plans would probably save his life.

Why would Blackfish kill Jaime if it means that Tywin will kill Catelyn, Edmure, and Sansa? Simply, they were already planning on capturing hostages to ensure the North/Riverlanders compliance thus they could used some of those to trade for Jaime.

[SeanF]

I've never been able to decide whether Tywin really had written Jaime off, or whether Tyrion just misread his father. Given the vehemence of his father's reaction to the idea of Tyrion inheriting Casterly Rock, I'm inclined to think that Jaime's safety did matter to Tywin.

[Scipio Africanus]

So you take the way someone personally justifies their actions and just swallow it whole? Because that is how Karstark justifies it you just take it as a given? Lax laws governing the consumption of copyrighted media online embolden me to watch and download everything for free, but the people who make and enforce those laws obviously cannot be said to be directly responsible for me pirating media. It is surely an ridiculously teleological explanation of causation to say that once Catelyn frees Jaime the death of the other Lannister's in captivity is inevitable?

Just because we don't like it doesn't mean it wasn't a consequence. For every action there is a reaction and the reaction is not always something which is forseen or wanted.

Austrian Crown Prince Franz-Ferdinand was assassinated by Serbian nationalist Gavrilo Princip in june 1914, which caused Austro-Hungry to declare war on Serbia, which in turn caused a series of war declarations between various allies, and resulted in a war which caused tens of millions of casualties. Was it fair to those casualties that one act of terror sparked a big war? Was it just that one action of one man would lead to the deaths and sufferings of millions? Was it even a good excuse?

Nope, but there you have it.

[SeanF]

Why would Blackfish kill Jaime if it means that Tywin will kill Catelyn, Edmure, and Sansa? Simply, they were already planning on capturing hostages to ensure the North/Riverlanders compliance thus they could used some of those to trade for Jaime.

That's my suspicion. The Blackfish couldn't kill Jaime with his closest relatives all taken prisoner.

[Gannicus]

So this is just based on an assumption that Tywin has spies in Robb's camp, even though we don't have those indications?

As was shown earlier, Tywin was prepared to let Jaime die as part of the price of winning. This has been the case since the chapter in which Tywin found out Jaime had been captured. When Tywin refers to Tyrion as "his son," this is how Tyrion, and the reader, knows that Tywin was treating Jaime as good as dead. This seems very convincing evidence that Jaime's safety and return was not a factor in Tywin's moves.

To the best of my knowledge, here's the order of things:

1. Cat frees Jaime just before the Blackwater

2. The Freys believe the war is lost given the outcome of Blackwater and the loss of Winterfell. The Freys have a council with Roose at Harrenhal, from which Roose emerges saying that he plans to go kill wolves (Arya X, aCoK).

3. Riverrun sends ravens to Roose informing him that Jaime's escaped and to return him if he comes across him. (Cat I aSoS)

4. News of Robb's marriage comes to Riverrun (Cat II)

5. Roose had laid a trap for Ser Helman and Robett at Duskendale; he gave false commands to lead Robb's men into a trap in which Gregor defeats them. There's strong suggestion that Roose has been corresponding with Tywin to form an alliance, though I don't believe Roose has informed Tywin that Jaime was released yet, because Roose is the sort of man who wouldn't put all of his cards on the table at once (hence, showing his intentions by double-crossing men, but witholding information about Jaime's escape in case he must use Jaime for other ends). We also learn that Sybell has informed Tywin of Robb's marriage, and that he's planning something. (Tyrion III)

6. Jaime arrives at Harrenhal (Jaime IV)

7. Tywin commissions that sword for Jaime (Tyrion IV)

8. Roose declares loyalty to the Lannisters formally by sending Jaime off to Tywin (Jaime V)

Notably, The Freys and Roose have begun turning against Robb after Blackwater and Winterfell is taken. This is before anyone knows about Jaime's release. Roose is already flirting with a Lannister alliance, because immediately after that council with the Freys, he leads Robett and Helmann into a Lannister trap. Roose has already turned, and given that he and Tywin are always writing letters on page, it doesn't take much to assume they are likely hatching a plot together. My best guess is that Roose informed Tywin of Jaime's escape once Jaime arrives in Harrenhal (right before Tywin commissions that sword).

Even beyond a timeline, it's very clear that Tywin was more than willing to let Jaime die. The RW would have happened if all of those other factors remained the same, changing only the variable of Jaime's escape. Besides, Cat wasn't supposed to be killed. She'd have provided a reasonable hostage to trade for Jaime had she been kept alive.

I don't have the time to address each point individually. There was a discussion about this a week or so ago, but the search function isn't running.

I think it was clear Tywin was in communication with Roose, Walder, and probably Sybell. You seem to assert as much about Roose in your timeline, which is reasonable. That is why I refered to them as spies. Is it fair to say Roose or Walder wouldn't risk a move like the RW without some assurances from Tywin? I assume we can agree Tywin played a role.

Now more importantly, when does Tywin ever give Jaime up for dead? If you're basing that assumption on Tyrion's thought at the end of GOT it doesn't hold much if any weight. Tywin may fear Jaime is dead but he never says anything like that. When does he say he's prepaired to sacrifcie Jaime for the price of winning? No where as far as I'm aware.

Then we see him tell Tyrion to F off when he asks for Casterly Rock. Perhaps that is because he knows he may still get Jaime back?

[Zman1863]

Why would Blackfish kill Jaime if it means that Tywin will kill Catelyn, Edmure, and Sansa? Simply, they were already planning on capturing hostages to ensure the North/Riverlanders compliance thus they could used some of those to trade for Jaime.

I see the point, but I think it was still more risky than making it a purely capture scenario. As we know, Catelyn ended up dying regardless of the plans. What if Edmure had too? Capturing Robb alive would have been the optimal way to ensure Jaime's safety.

[Minsc]

I see the point, but I think it was still more risky than making it a purely capture scenario. As we know, Catelyn ended up dying regardless of the plans. What if Edmure had too? Capturing Robb alive would have been the optimal way to ensure Jaime's safety.

How does that change anything from how the situation was originally for regarding Catelyn?

Then we see him tell Tyrion to F off when he asks for Casterly Rock. Perhaps that is because he knows he may still get Jaime back?

Likely because he has discovered that Jaime has "escaped."

[Gannicus]

Why would Blackfish kill Jaime if it means that Tywin will kill Catelyn, Edmure, and Sansa? Simply, they were already planning on capturing hostages to ensure the North/Riverlanders compliance thus they could used some of those to trade for Jaime.

What assurances are there that any of them survive? Cat was supposed to be a prisoner and died. Those types of variables are hardly something Tywin will not count on, especially when you consider the type of men he has just made a deal with.

And I think Sansa would be more use to Tywin alive.

[Gannicus]

Likely because he has discovered that Jaime has "escaped."

Bingo! We have a winner.

Let the Red Wedding commence.

[Minsc]

Bingo! We have a winner.

Let the Red Wedding commence.

Too bad he was planning the RW beforehand and would have gone through with it anyways.

[butterbumps!]

The scene between Tyrion and Tywin at the Green Fork is only indicative of what Tywin was thinking at that time. Sure it reveals that in some circumstances he would be willing to give Jaime up for dead. But the scene with the new swords indicates that Tywin wasn't feeling that way anymore. The post Green fork scene is stale as to how much Tywin would factor Jaime into his RW plans.

Even if Tywin had learned that Jaime was free just prior to commissioning the swords (and he may have known of it earlier than that since he later claims its through Varys he learns of the release, not Bolton), it does not necessarily mean that he had cast the die on the RW in the incarnation it ended up taking. As my earlier post argued, even if Tywin was plotting with Frey just after Frey pulled his forces from Robb, it doesn't mean that the entire scheme for the RW was concocted and set in stone immediately. Frey had to negotiate to have a wedding in the first place and then the mechanics of what exactly was to take place needed to be settled.

If Tywin had thought Jaime was still a prisoner prior to ironing out the details of the RW I would have to think that he would have insisted that the RW be a capture and not a kill operation. Capturing Robb would have been enough to barter Jaime's release and probably could have been enough to forge an advantageous peace. Going through with the massacre as it happened would have resulted in Jaime's certain execution. It's one thing to be willing to consider your son as good as dead in some circumstances. But it's another to send him to certain death where a minor change in plans would probably save his life.

I see no indication to believe that Tyrion's take-away from Tywin's words in aGoT is conditional, especially on a reread once we know that Tyrion does truly understand his father better than anyone, and that Tywin is the sort of man who would call Tyrion his son only in the event that everyone else was lost to him.

Tywin cast the RW die when he gleefully informs Tyrion of Sybell's letter much earlier. I know that Varys told Tywin about Jaime's escape, and I'd thought that Roose informs him only after Jaime gets to Harrenhal (Roose could have informed him earlier, but I'd suspected he hadn't, was my point).

The issue here is twofold for me: 1. the release of Jaime was indeed a windfall for Tywin, but not something that would have deterred his plans. We have no reason to believe it was a factor, especially given the fact it's pointed out that he's given him up for dead. 2. Some form of decisive defeat of the Northmen was already written from the double blow of the loss of Winterfell and Stannis' defeat of Blackwater. Add in Robb's "betrayal," and the specific manifestation of this massacre at the wedding emerged.

Cat's release of Jaime doesn't impact these 3 very major factors that were going to bring full defeat to Robb no matter what. I'd even posit that the true blow that could have changed the tide was the loss of Winterfell. This is the event that pushed the Freys and Roose to change sides.

I don't have the time to address each point individually. There was a discussion about this a week or so ago, but the search function isn't running.

I think it was clear Tywin was in communication with Roose, Walder, and probably Sybell. You seem to assert as much about Roose in your timeline, which is reasonable. That is why I refered to them as spies. Is it fair to say Roose or Walder wouldn't risk a move like the RW without some assurances from Tywin? I assume we can agree Tywin played a role.

Now more importantly, when does Tywin ever give Jaime up for dead? If you're basing that assumption on Tyrion's thought at the end of GOT it doesn't hold much if any weight. Tywin may fear Jaime is dead but he never says anything like that. When does he say he's prepaired to sacrifcie Jaime for the price of winning? No where as far as I'm aware.

Then we see him tell Tyrion to F off when he asks for Casterly Rock. Perhaps that is because he knows he may still get Jaime back?

I see what you mean about spies now. Sorry, I had thought you were going somewhere else with that.

I really don't understand how you figure that the passage in aGoT doesn't hold weight?

But on your last point, we know Tywin knew Jaime had escaped, but also that he was in communication with Robb's men who were actively planning Robb's betrayal prior. It does not follow that releasing Jaime = RW, when we know Tywin had already given him up for dead, and we already know Tywin was hatching his plots.

[FuriousGeorge]

Just because we don't like it doesn't mean it wasn't a consequence. For every action there is a reaction and the reaction is not always something which is forseen or wanted.

Austrian Crown Prince Franz-Ferdinand was assassinated by Serbian nationalist Gavrilo Princip in june 1914, which caused Austro-Hungry to declare war on Serbia, which in turn caused a series of war declarations between various allies, and resulted in a war which caused tens of millions of casualties. Was it fair to those casualties that one act of terror sparked a big war? Was it just that one action of one man would lead to the deaths and sufferings of millions? Was it even a good excuse?

Nope, but there you have it.

This is just a ridiculously simplistic conception of historical change and causation. The assassination of Franz Ferdinand is just an arbitrary marker of the beginning of that historical narrative - what about the political and historical context of what motivated the Serbian nationalist to attempt an assassination? Does that have a role in explaining the origin of the WW1? How can you cut off the period of European history that preceded that event, and say that the beginning of a global war can be assuredly located in one specific action?

[Gannicus]

I see what you mean about spies now. Sorry, I had thought you were going somewhere else with that.

I really don't understand how you figure that the passage in aGoT doesn't hold weight?

But on your last point, we know Tywin knew Jaime had escaped, but also that he was in communication with Robb's men who were actively planning Robb's betrayal prior. It does not follow that releasing Jaime = RW, when we know Tywin had already given him up for dead, and we already know Tywin was hatching his plots.

Here's the quote I assume we're all talking about

Lord Tywin rose abruptly. "You are my son."

That was when he knew. You have given him up for lost, he thought. You bloody bastard, you think Jaime's good as dead, so I'm all you have left.

Personally I don't think Tyrion has it right of it.

But for kicks let's assume Tywin thinks Jaime will die. I don't see how fearing your son is lost = doing whatever you have to do to win the war even at the expense of your son's life. Jaime's life would have been in serious jeopardy if the RW played out. Don't you think if Tywin has the chance to free Jaime the ballgame still changes.

I know Roose and Walder were ready to turn against Robb and I know Tywin may have been making schemes before Jaime's release. But we don't know what these plans entailed. Tywin likely new about Jaime's release at the start of ACOK based on his conversation with Tyrion about CR so who know what scheme he was hatching at that point.

There is a difference between trying to find allies behind enemy lines and pulling the trigger on a scheme that could cost Jaime his life.

I don't know if we can say for certain one way or another what would have happend had Jaime remained a prisoner. But the possibilty remains that things could have been different.

[Errant Bard]

This often comes back to this, but how is the rationality of an action dependent on things the character has absolutely no way of knowing when he made that decision?

Whether Tywin did or did not plan the Red Wedding at that time is irrelevant. Whether Jaime's release was a factor in a success or a failure is irrelevant. What is relevant is that reasoning of the character, what he knew then, and how his decision was rational in regard to his goals.

And look here: when she lets Jaime out Catelyn:

• Did not know about the Blackwater
  
• Did not know about Jeyne
  
• Did not know about the Tyrion marriage
  
• Did not know about the Red Wedding preparation (they were not even started, for the most part anyway)
  
• Did know about Tyrion vowing to exchange the girls against Jaime.
  
• Did know about Robb's political and personal reluctance to condone exchanging a knight against two girls.
  
• Did know that the chance to see the girls released was zero except for an exchange with Jaime
  
• Did know that losing Jaime actually would not hurt Robb, because there was nothing to exchanging him against anyway
  
• Did not plan, like EVERYONE ELSE, that the situation would get so desperate as relying on having an hostage to save Robb's life (didn't work well anyway, see Jinglebells)

Sound reasoning, good plan, clear vision of the way to success and implications in what she knew of the situation, it's all there. Not her fault everything went to hell at the same time and she was not informed.

Her decision is way more rational than Robb or Kastark keeping Jaime because they hate him and nothing else, if it comes to that. Unless the argument is that she should have thought that Robb was an incompetent clown who would sink his own cause by breaking his alliance and compounding it by condoning what she did.

[Zman1863]

I see no indication to believe that Tyrion's take-away from Tywin's words in aGoT is conditional, especially on a reread once we know that Tyrion does truly understand his father better than anyone, and that Tywin is the sort of man who would call Tyrion his son only in the event that everyone else was lost to him.

Tywin cast the RW die when he gleefully informs Tyrion of Sybell's letter much earlier. I know that Varys told Tywin about Jaime's escape, and I'd thought that Roose informs him only after Jaime gets to Harrenhal (Roose could have informed him earlier, but I'd suspected he hadn't, was my point).

But as I've been arguing, the fact that Tywin has been conspiring with all the parties to the RW prior to learning of Jaime's release does not mean that the plot had been worked out and committed to in all its details. It's a leap to say that because Tywin was writing to Sybell Spicer that he had already resolved to have Robb shot with an arrow at a wedding that might not have been arranged yet.

[butterbumps!]

Here's the quote I assume we're all talking about

Lord Tywin rose abruptly. "You are my son."

That was when he knew. You have given him up for lost, he thought. You bloody bastard, you think Jaime's good as dead, so I'm all you have left.

Personally I don't think Tyrion has it right of it.

I'm not trying to give you a hard time about this, but I don't quite understand why you think Tyrion's not right about this. After reading through everything, Tyrion does know Tywin best. Tywin and Genna both admit that Tyrion understands Tywin's mind better than anyone. Tywin is also less attached to individual family members as he is to the name of his House. It is perfectly within the character of Tywin to truly sacrifice Jaime like that for the sake of winning the war.

But for kicks let's assume Tywin thinks Jaime will die. I don't see how fearing your son is lost = doing whatever you have to do to win the war even at the expense of your son's life. Jaime's life would have been in serious jeopardy if the RW played out. Don't you think if Tywin has the chance to free Jaime the ballgame still changes.

I'm not certain it changes anything too dramatically. Those other 3 factors I pointed out, I truly believe have far more to do with the RW than anything pertaining to Jaime's escape.

I don't know if we can say for certain one way or another what would have happend had Jaime remained a prisoner. But the possibilty remains that things could have been different.

I'm honestly not trying to whitewash Cat here or anything like that. I can see an argument that perhaps the level of brutality may have been lessened, but not by much. Robb needed to be killed, his chief officers as well. Even with knowledge of Jaime's release, it was supposed to be less bloody; Cat wasn't supposed to be killed, but that didn't go according to plan. To be honest, I think that something "RW-like" would have occurred even without the added pressure of Robb's marriage to Jeyne-- the tensions of the Freys and Roose were already breaking because of Stannis and Winterfell. Once Roose and the Freys had turned and began cooperating with Tywin, I don't believe anything could have saved Robb or his men in terms of not freeing Jaime.

But as I've been arguing, the fact that Tywin has been conspiring with all the parties to the RW prior to learning of Jaime's release does not mean that the plot had been worked out and committed to in all its details. It's a leap to say that because Tywin was writing to Sybell Spicer that he had already resolved to have Robb shot with an arrow at a wedding that might not have been arranged yet.

I get that the specifics may not have been hammered out. To that end, Robb offered the perfect opportunity by marrying Jeyne. It's not a leap to say that Tywin was already coordinating something "RW-like" because in the first chapter he speaks to Tyrion in aSoS he says "some battles are won with quills and ink" (paraphrased). I don't know if it matters whether Robb was shot with arrows, whether the band played Meat Loaf, or they served chicken kiev. Robb was going to be killed no matter what.

[TheMysteriousOne]

I love how most of the irrationally hated characters in this series are women. *sarcasm*

[redviper9]

I love how most of the irrationally hated characters in this series are women. *sarcasm*

I'm not sure I get the meaning of this post. Would you mind clarifying if you're actually being sarcastic?