Lysa and Baelish Killing Jon Arryn

[Chaircat Meow]

I think you have it backwards. It was Robert's idea, as he didn't want Sweetrobin to be raised by woman. Further, we have this passage from aGoT, p. 45:

"I will take him as a ward, if you wish," Ned said. . . A generous offer my friend," the King said, "but Lord Tywin has already given his consent. Fostering the boy elsewhere would be a grievous affront to him."

Also, Jon is dead by the time the Casterly Rock idea is floated. As such, the Lannisters don't need to have Sweetrobin in order to ensure his silence. Lysa is a different story. But wouldn't it be just as easy to dismiss any claims she makes as the product of her being batshit crazy?

That doesn't prove whose idea it was. I doubt it was Robert's. Why would he ask Tywin? The fostering could have been sold to him on the basis that Robin needed a man to bring him up (by Pycelle or Cersei). Again, we are told Tywin doesn't take wards, so he'd need a reason to take Robin. The lannisters don't need to silence Jon no, but they need to neutralize the Vale in preparation for a potential succession struggle (they also tried this by asking for Jaime to be appointed warden of the east), as well as halt any continuation of the attempt to cement Vale-Dragonstone relations (for the same reason).The author also needs a reason for mentioning this affair so many times, if it was so innocuous.

[A Man Has Said]

In the "biggest shockers" thread, I gave the answer of Lysa killing Jon Arryn at Baelish's behest, which I still believe to be the series' most legitimate "twist," in the sense that it's extremely difficult to see coming. Unlike, say, the Red Wedding, which is extremely shocking but the telegraphed repeatedly.

I'd kind of like to work backward though, and see how much material there is leading up the reveal that might have given it away. I firmly believe that GRRM doesn't do "gotcha" moments, so much as he leaves clues that you may or may not pick up. So let's hunt for clues about Lysa, Petyr and Jon.

The biggest one by far, courtesy of Varys:

"There was one boy. All he was, he owed to Jon Arryn, but when the widow fled to the Eyrie with her household, he stayed in King's Landing and prospered. It always gladdens my heart to see the young rise in this world."

Ned (and we) thinks it's in reference to Ser Hugh. It's not — it's a nod to Petyr, and Varys is slyly giving Ned some prodding toward the real murderer, while letting him believe it's the squire (not unlike what he does with Kevan and Aegon, but that's another story).

I agree that it's one of the biggest twists in the series - in fact I gave a similar answer in the 'shockers' thread. I'm not sure about the Varys quotation though. It's somewhere between so subtle a hint that it's not one and actually forcing an interpretation. I think Varys, if he'd wanted to prod Ned in the right direction (assuming he even knew the real killer) could have and would have given a more substantial hint, considering he doesn't have a very high opinion of Ned's intelligence.

When Catelyn arrives in the Vale, Lysa says she wrote the letter to warn her to stay away from the Lannisters, not bring one to the Eyrie. She seems scared of Tyrion. The first time through it looks like simple paranoia but in retrospect, she might have feared that Tyrion would make a persuasive case that the Lannisters were innocent of this crime.

I don't think Tyrion could have made such a case. We, the readers were pretty convinced it was Cersei's doing after all, and there's no-one in universe that demonstrably knows substantially more than we do. See my response to Afro.

Doesn't GRRM have to approve everything that goes 'on-screen' through HBO? Well as soon as you see Jon Arryn laid to rest, you see Jamie and Cersei conversing. And at least from what I remember they make it out to seem like they actually poisoned him. So I wonder if they DID attempt to poison him and Lysa just got to it first? But she was at the Vale & Jon was at KL? Flipping heck I'm confused lol

Well, it's damnably confusing, to tell the truth of it.

OK, here's where I think it gets interesting. I'm pretty sure that Ned confronts Cersei over this in the conversation he has with her telling her his intention to expose her twincest with Jaime - and she not only doesn't deny it, she acts guilty about it. (I'll have to look it up to confirm that.)

Even without that, assuming Cersei thought that Jon Arryn merely had a common stomach ailment. She saw to it that Maester Colemon was taken off the case and Grand Maester Pycelle gave Arryn treatments that were intended to guarantee his demise. That would leave Cersei and Pycelle believing they had killed him, (and it could even be true if Colemon stood a chance of curing him) when they really hadn't.

It's been mentioned in other threads but: Jon was poisoned by the Tears of Lys(a). Also, Alyssa's Tears is a waterfall in the Vale. Neither of these point to LF though, just Lysa.

Nice. Subtle as all get out. I like it.

Not a foreshadow that could by any stretch have given the most brilliant reader the key clue to have anticipated the twist though.

Edit: grammar (used the wrong pronoun)

[Maxpey]

That doesn't prove whose idea it was. I doubt it was Robert's. Why would he ask Tywin? The fostering could have been sold to him on the basis that Robin needed a man to bring him up (by Pycelle or Cersei). Again, we are told Tywin doesn't take wards, so he'd need a reason to take Robin. The lannisters don't need to silence Jon no, but they need to neutralize the Vale in preparation for a potential succession struggle (they also tried this by asking for Jaime to be appointed warden of the east), as well as halt any continuation of the attempt to cement Vale-Dragonstone relations (for the same reason).

You're moving the goal posts on me. You first claimed it was Tywin who approached Robert, but the text contradicts your assertion. Now you are telling me that although it was Robert who asked Tywin, a Lannister confidant (Cersei or Pycelle) must have planted the idea in his head.

[Chaircat Meow]

You're moving the goal posts on me. You first claimed it was Tywin who approached Robert, but the text contradicts your assertion. Now you are telling me that although it was Robert who asked Tywin, a Lannister confidant (Cersei or Pycelle) must have planted the idea in his head.

The important point though is that a lannister, or a lannister sympathizer began the idea (so, not Robert), as that clues us into the idea Casterly Rock knows, in some way, about the threat to their claim on the throne from Stannis, providing a reason for the author to keep bringing this incident up, and making it an important 'mystery.'

[Ragnorak]

I think you have it backwards. It was Robert's idea, as he didn't want Sweetrobin to be raised by woman. Further, we have this passage from aGoT, p. 45:

"I will take him as a ward, if you wish," Ned said. . . A generous offer my friend," the King said, "but Lord Tywin has already given his consent. Fostering the boy elsewhere would be a grievous affront to him."

Also, Jon is dead by the time the Casterly Rock idea is floated. As such, the Lannisters don't need to have Sweetrobin in order to ensure his silence. Lysa is a different story. But wouldn't it be just as easy to dismiss any claims she makes as the product of her being batshit crazy?

Even that line raises the question of why it is Ok to foster him with Tywin if he was promised to Stannis but not Ok to foster him with Ned if he was promised to Tywin. If Tywin never fostered anyone why would Robert think to ask him and not someone like Ned or even at Storms End with Edric Storm? It isn't impossible but begs the question all the same.

The Warden of the East comes up in the same conversation. It sounds like Cersei at Tywin's behest or Pycelle would have made the recommendation for fostering and Tywin used the opportunity to suggest that young lord Arryn's Warden title follow him to Casterly Rock under Jaime's care until he's older. That all fits with an anticipation for war. If Arryn was planning to "act" as Pycelle says he probably wasn't making his fostering with Stannis overly public (though no secret if he told Frey when asked) so it is reasonably possible Robert didn't know-- especially considering he and Stannis had some tensions and that for all his "acting" telling Robert wasn't on Arryn's to do list until his family was secure away from Kings Landing.

An alternative interpretation would be his deliberately slighting Stannis but that doesn't fit nearly as well with all the other details surrounding the issue or the overall plot as it unfolds. Not only is Ned family through Cat/Lysa, but he and Robert were both fostered by Jon Arryn. Why wouldn't Ned be Robert's obvious choice to foster Jon Arryn's son if he wasn't going to do it himself? He was Robert's choice for Theon.

We get this from Stannis talking about Slynt

Robert shrugged away your little lapses. ‘They all steal,’ I recall him saying. ‘Better a thief we know than one we don’t, the next man might be worse.’ Lord Petyr’s words in my brother’s mouth, I’ll warrant.

So, at least for me, it is more a question of whose words were in Robert's mouth than whether or not they were his own.

ETA:

The important point though is that a lannister, or a lannister sympathizer began the idea (so, not Robert), as that clues us into the idea Casterly Rock knows, in some way, about the threat to their claim on the throne from Stannis, providing a reason for the author to keep bringing this incident up, and making it an important 'mystery.'

Agreed. The idea is almost certainly Tywin's at the root. Which catspaw put them in Robert's mouth is the uncertainty. On my first read I certainly noticed the fostering discrepancy because it seemed that the author was taunting me with it-- haha, HUGE clue and you don't know what it means.... It is a rare "in your face" bit from an otherwise extraordinarily subtle writer.

[Mrs.Grumpy]

Funny isn't it? All these mess started because of "who's gonna foster Sweetrobin" competition... *sigh*

[zamieo]

Jon's death was a huge catalyst in The WoFK, so the best clues to his death being at the hands of Lysa and Petyr lie most likely in AGOT? The problem we have is the same one Ned Stark had.

Now that you mention it, think about how different the war would've been if Jon Arryn would've been alive. The forces of the Vale, his experience of scheming as well as battle experience along with the power of the North and the Riverlands, I'd say that would've easily tipped the war in Robb's favor.

[Maxpey]

Even that line raises the question of why it is Ok to foster him with Tywin if he was promised to Stannis but not Ok to foster him with Ned if he was promised to Tywin. If Tywin never fostered anyone why would Robert think to ask him and not someone like Ned or even at Storms End with Edric Storm? It isn't impossible but begs the question all the same.

The Warden of the East comes up in the same conversation. It sounds like Cersei at Tywin's behest or Pycelle would have made the recommendation for fostering and Tywin used the opportunity to suggest that young lord Arryn's Warden title follow him to Casterly Rock under Jaime's care until he's older. That all fits with an anticipation for war. If Arryn was planning to "act" as Pycelle says he probably wasn't making his fostering with Stannis overly public (though no secret if he told Frey when asked) so it is reasonably possible Robert didn't know-- especially considering he and Stannis had some tensions and that for all his "acting" telling Robert wasn't on Arryn's to do list until his family was secure away from Kings Landing.

An alternative interpretation would be his deliberately slighting Stannis but that doesn't fit nearly as well with all the other details surrounding the issue or the overall plot as it unfolds. Not only is Ned family through Cat/Lysa, but he and Robert were both fostered by Jon Arryn. Why wouldn't Ned be Robert's obvious choice to foster Jon Arryn's son if he wasn't going to do it himself? He was Robert's choice for Theon.

We get this from Stannis talking about Slynt

So, at least for me, it is more a question of whose words were in Robert's mouth than whether or not they were his own.

ETA:

Agreed. The idea is almost certainly Tywin's at the root. Which catspaw put them in Robert's mouth is the uncertainty. On my first read I certainly noticed the fostering discrepancy because it seemed that the author was taunting me with it-- haha, HUGE clue and you don't know what it means.... It is a rare "in your face" bit from an otherwise extraordinarily subtle writer.

I can't argue with your conclusions that the Lannisters were behind Robert's decision to ask Tywin to foster Sweetrobin because there is nothing in the text that contradicts it.

However, I think you are making the mistake of assuming that Robert knew about Jon's plan to foster Sweetrobin with Stannis. Remember, both Jon and Stannis had concerns about the Twincest and they were not ready to tell Robert. As such, it's not unreasonable to believe that they would not have told Robert about the plans for Sweetrobin.

I just wonder if GRRM's purpose in bringing up the "mystery" of where Sweetrobin was going to be fostered (I personally think it was a simple case of confusion on Catelyn's part) was a plot device to give us very subtle clues about Lysa's involvement with Jon's death. One common thread to all the references to fostering Sweetrobin, as you correctly pointed out, was Lysa's reaction.

[Mad Monkey]

Funny isn't it? All these mess started because of "who's gonna foster Sweetrobin" competition... *sigh*

Yeah, because he's such a great person to live with too, isn't he?

[James Arryn]

Funny isn't it? All these mess started because of "who's gonna foster Sweetrobin" competition... *sigh*

I find it more interesting that Jon Arryn's call to war was also the turning point for the previous dynastic upheaval.

The Arryns aren't much to look at right now, but they have been the kingdom's fulcrum for quite some time.

Here's to Harry?

[drstrangelove]

Did the ladder chaos speech occur in the books. I may be merging the show and series but if it did, it would preciley indicate his involvement

[Arya kiddin']

Did the ladder chaos speech occur in the books. I may be merging the show and series but if it did, it would preciley indicate his involvement

It did not happen in the books. We don't have a LF/ Varys POV.

[Mrs.Grumpy]

I find it more interesting that Jon Arryn's call to war was also the turning point for the previous dynastic upheaval.

The Arryns aren't much to look at right now, but they have been the kingdom's fulcrum for quite some time.

Here's to Harry?

Yeah, they seems to play the key roles and sit on their butt and watch the world burn. Interesting thoughts about Harry... hmmm... :idea:

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

We could have guessed right at the end of "A Game of Thrones", with these two clues...

Ding ding ding! Hot dog, we have a weiner! etc. I think these were some effective clues, not that we were able to piece it together.

It might be that everyone was telling truth, just at different periods of time.

Could be, but personally I don't think GRRM would have made as much of the discrepancies if they didn't add up to something. Someone upthread said that it was like he was dangling a big clue right in your front of your face and laughing that you couldn't get it, which was pretty much the way it felt to me.

My theory: Littlefinger knows about the incest, knows that Jon Arryn knows, knows that Arryn plans to foster Robin at Dragonstone when he blows the whistle. He also starts whispering in Robert's ear about fostering Robin at Casterly Rock. Perhaps he also allows the Lannisters to find out about the Dragonstone plan too.

I know that isn't exactly supported by the text, but I don't think it's implausible. Littefinger's an expert manipulator and Robert's a drunken oaf, I'm sure he could talk him into something and make him think it was his own idea. I'm sure Littlefinger could figure out that the idea of toughening up Robert's nephew would be a good sell (I suppose this assumes Robert doesn't know about the Dragonstone plan). There's also precedent for the idea of Robert at least contemplating what's best for other people's children, according to his own, dubious standards: that is, when he complains that the Starks ought to give Bran a mercy killing.

So, the sequence of events would run something like this:

- Littlefinger is plowing Lysa Arryn

- Jaime Lannister is plowing his sister

- Jon Arryn finds out, prepares to foster his son with Stannis

- Lysa finds out, is not happy

- Littlefinger finds out, leaks it to the Lannisters and somehow plants the idea of fostering Robin at Casterly Rock, which the Lannisters grab onto, because it would suit them to have a hostage

- Lysa finds out, and the pressure of two separate plans to take her son away from her - two groups fighting over her baby - puts her into the right frame of mind for Littlefinger to persuade her to poison Jon Arryn

(This assumes that it took some doing to convince Lysa to commit murder, which may not be the case.)

And then he has her write that letter... question: did Littlefinger know that with Jon Arryn dead Robert would ask Ned Stark to be Hand? i.e. was he specifically trying to mislead the next Hand, or was he just trying to sow chaos? This ties into that other question about Littlefinger: how much of his success is down to Machiavelli-grade political cunning, and how much is just down to brass balls and good luck? If the latter, I suspect Littlefinger has a downfall coming... but that is a question for another thread.

We later learn that Varys knows much and more of LF's plots but cares not to stop them, so it's not entirely implausible.

Off-topic, but what does Varys know of Littlefinger's plots? I thought that, while he knew Littlefinger was up to something, he didn't know what.