DORAN'S LAW - The Grass That Hides The Viper

[I S**t Gold]

Spoiler

Then he sends Arianne to Aegon, a plan very similar to the Quentyn plan in that it doesn't need to work to work. The Golden Company along with Dany are two of the biggest threats to Dorne, a marriage proposal shows desire for alliance and it shows you aren't a threat. Not only is Dorne going to be the last place to be burned by dragons, it's unlikely it will be getting trampled by elephants any time soon.

I see a lot of people who don't really rate Prince Doran and I can understand why. On the surface it looks like he makes some strange decisions and barely has Dorne under control. His own daughter conspires against him, the Sand Snakes seem on the verge of rebellion, his right hand man went off and got killed and whatever was going on with poor Quent, it seemed like a poorly thought through plan.
Tywin Lannister thought differently however, he had a lot of respect for Doran and that doesn't seem to tally with some of Doran's moves, and the behaviour of his subjects. Yet Tywin isn't one to praise people lightly, if at all. He also knows what he's talking about in my opinion. I re-read the Dorne stuff under the assumption that Tywin was right, and there may be more to this fella than meets the eye.
There's a lot about the Dorne storylines that don't really make sense, in terms of strategy. However I've been looking at all that stuff according to a theory I just made up that I call Doran's Law, which is essentially this...
"98% of everything that Doran says is bollocks, deliberately designed to draw attention away from his true plans."
Why? There's only two significant things that Doran says that I believe. The first is that Doran is 'the grass that hides the viper.' I believe this is a pretty good description of Doran's management style. There are bluffs and counter bluffs and the most important parts of his plan are the parts that don't seem that important to him at all.
Now I'll admit this is not the most scientific method, but I was surprised because Doran's Law produced some interesting results. Well, I enjoyed them anyway, and I thought I'd share them. To do this I'm going to reconsider the plans set in motion by Doran,and reconsider whether or not they were successful, and also think about Doran's health issues.

QUENTYN
One of the major reasons people underestimate Doran is poor old Quent, because lets face it that plan was poorly conceived and poorly executed. Tyrion sees it's not going to work in about three seconds.
Quent is Doran's heir isn't he? We know this from the letter he sent the Yronwoods. Yet he's complicit in sending Quent into the dragon's lair, and also he does nothing to make sure Quentyn is better prepared. We know from Arianne's POV's that he has books on dragons, like the one Tyrion was reading. Doran may well have possessed information that could have saved Quent's life.
Using Doran's Law, this plan can't possibly be as shit as it seems, and maybe it isn't...
Firstly, the Yronwood's and the Martell's have had a bit of a bad history. Clearly Doran needs to keep them onside, or he would never have sent Quentyn to them in the first place. The Yronwood's had a far bigger influence on Quent than the Martell's. I think the letter was sent to Quentyn knowing the Yronwood's would read it, and the person he intended to succeed him was another member of his family. I see Doran as being more from the Balon Greyjoy school of parenting, where he can't bring himself to trust a son raised by an enemy to run Dorne.
So Quentyn had been written off by Doran, he was expendable, even if Doran didn't wish him any harm. Why bother with the plan then?
Well Doran's plan was successful the moment Quentyn proposed to Dany, regardless of her response. When Dany gets to Dorne she will remember that Dorne reached out. The Prince of Doran offered her a marriage to his son and heir, first in line to the throne. She may even feel guilty about what happened next. Whatever else, when Dany reaches Westeros with her dragons, which of the seven kingdoms do you think will be the last to be scorched to the ground?
Losing Quentyn may have been a bonus, or at least an acceptable loss, but even if he had succeeded in wooing the dragon queen or stealing a dragon, that's still not such a bad outcome. However I doubt Doran ever seriously imagined the beautiful Dragon Queen would fall in love with someone who's handsome enough to be landed with the moniker 'Frog'.
So yeah, this was a plan that didn't have to work to be successful. One of the biggest threats to Dorne is those dragons, and Doran has pretty much guaranteed they won't be aimed at him and his people.

ARIANNE
Still if he was that good, you'd think he'd at least be able to keep his daughter under control. Ironically, if that letter to Quentyn promising him the kingdom was a ruse, it's a ruse that set Arianne on the path to rebellion. Another dunce move!
However, Doran kind of does keep Arianne under control doesn't he? She's very careful about who she invites into the rebellion, and from her POV, the choices she makes do seem logical. Yet Doran manages to snuff out the rebellion quickly and quietly and bring his daughter and heir under his wing.
My theory here is that Darkstar is the mole. The second time I believe Doran is when he refers to that guy as 'the most dangerous man in Dorne'. Yet the most dangerous man in Dorne failed to kill a little girl when he had a free shot at her and seemed keen to do just that. Unless that was what he was supposed to do.
See I don't think Darkstar would have failed to kill her unless he'd been forbidden from killing her. Myrcella is still going to be useful later on. Why would Doran want her maimed though? What does that accomplish?
Well the group Arianne picked, Darkstar aside, are all trusted confidantes who are loyal to Arianne. However Darkstar's actions mean that out of all the conspirators Arianne will never suspect him of being the mole, nor be inclined to work with him again because that's pretty horrific. Meanwhile she must doubt every single one of her most trusted allies. In one fell swoop Doran has neutered her as a potential threat.
Then he sends Arianne to Aegon, a plan very similar to the Quentyn plan in that it doesn't need to work to work. The Golden Company along with Dany are two of the biggest threats to Dorne, a marriage proposal shows desire for alliance and it shows you aren't a threat. Not only is Dorne going to be the last place to be burned by dragons, it's unlikely it will be getting trampled by elephants any time soon. The difference is Arianne isn't someone who is expendable, but she is someone who Doran doesn't trust. The only way to bring her onside is to give her a mission that seems to be of the utmost importance, and promise her the kingdom of Dorne, but according to Doran's Law, Arianne isn't going to be his heir either.

TRYSTANE
Just a short bit to say that in my opinion Trystane is the one Doran is grooming to succeed him. Quentyn became unviable when he became an Yronwood and Arianne has proved she cannot be trusted. We see Westerosi lords abandoning children for the good of their kingdom elsewhere, Randall Tarly for example. I believe Doran also wants what's best for Dorne. The end goal will still be a marriage to Myrcella, which is why she couldn't die. If something were to happen to Cersei and Tommen, that marriage could well bring Dorne a legitimate claim to the Iron Throne.

OBERYN
Now our brushes with the Viper have given us the impression of a man who is a law unto himself, and in many ways that's true, but there's little doubt that Oberyn and Doran were devoted to each other. Oberyn's actions in Kings Landing are potentially nothing short of awe inspiring, but needless to say I believe Doran was in on the whole thing.
This is mainly because if Oberyn was so set on revenge, why didn't he do it earlier? I believe Doran counselled restraint, and they waited until they could concoct a plan of revenge that could not possibly lead back to Dorne. Obviously Oberyn was responsible for the 'death' of the Mountain, and I subscribe to the theory he had poisoned Tywin and that's why he was on the toilet when Tyrion found him.
I'm not sure Varys' involvement in the whole affair was mere coincidence. Illyrio Mopatis has had dealings with Dorne before, and if you consider the possibility that Varys might therefore have an open line of communication to the Dornish, then it gets interesting.
Is it possible that Varys led Tyrion past his father's quarters on purpose knowing that Tyrion was set on revenge and manipulated him into taking the blame for the assassination? After all the Lannister's have Pycelle on the staff, who has an expertise in poisons that may have been sufficient enough to point the finger at Oberyn. He probably doesn't pursue that line of enquiry if Tywin is full of crossbow bolts.
Another thought was is it possible Shae was there without Tywin's knowledge? If the Oberyn theory is true then Tywin could have been on the bog awhile. This gives Varys time to act. He goes to Shae, tells he has a client for her, tells her to wait on the bed and wear the chains... what this would mean is Shae hasn't been unfaithful at all, and the same thing has happened to Tyrion twice. Why would Varys do this? He's twisted, and maybe it appeals to his sense of humour.
Anyway I'm digressing, and this may be crackpot enough without going down that route. Point being Oberyn and Doran may have conspired on pretty much the most audacious assassinations in the whole series, worthy of a faceless man all that. They enacted their revenge on Gregor and their revenge on Tywin and the plan would have been perfect if not for Oberyn's showboating. This was not part of the plan, Doran lost his right-hand man. That's OK though, he has at least 6 more that I can think of.

THE SAND SNAKES
OK, this is a stretch right? I mean you remember the Sand Snakes don't you? Openly questioning Doran's judgement as he bristles for revenge. One of them has even pissed off.
However there are things that don't make sense about this. For one thing he trusts them with important jobs too.
I believe that the Sand Snakes, given what we know about their history and their father are very much onside, and deliberately giving a misleading impression to Arianne. When I read it back, they seem to be having a lot of fun doing it too. This deception accomplishes a couple of things. Any spies watching believe the Sand Snakes are for turning. Arianne is kept ignorant of his plans because he doesn't trust her. He also looks weak, and Doran loves it when people think he's weak.
If you think of the Sand Snakes as loyal, then suddenly his decisions make sense.
Nymeria goes to take the council seat. Tyene is sent to infiltrate the Faith Militant. This is good strategic positioning of some of his key pieces.
Obara goes with Balon Swann to find and kill Darkstar. Nice knowing you Balon.
Elia Sand accompanies Arianne, on her trip to Aegon, and it's my feeling that she's going to be keeping tabs on Arianne for Doran.
What about Sarella? Doran says to 'let her play her silly games'. Hang on! According to Doran's Law, that's bollocks, which makes Sarella the most important Snake of all.

THE SPHINX IS THE RIDDLE NOT THE RIDDLER
Doran's the riddler, not the riddle. Sarella is the plan, but she's not the brains behind it.
Dorne has been interested in Oldtown before. Oberyn forged four links of a maester's chain before 'losing interest' or perhaps he found whatever it was he was looking for. After all, Oberyn seems to be very single-minded when it comes to achieving his goals. If being a Maester was the goal, does he seem like the kind of guy to give up after four links.
Sarella in my opinion, takes after her old man. I believe she's in Oldtown at Doran's behest. My gut instinct is that she's could be after information on dragons, or kill them, or maybe a mystical artefact that's there somewhere. There's so much we don't know about Oldtown, it could be anything. Whatever she's after, according to Doran's Law I must conclude that it's the most important part of Doran's plan.

DORAN'S HEALTH
Doran likes to be underestimated. He's got enemies, but he never seems to be that high on their list of priorities due to this policy.
We know that he has gout that is so painful he needs milk of the poppy, and as such we can presume physically he's not exactly one of the greatest warriors in Westeros. People don't see him as strong.
I feel like Doran may even be exaggerating the extent of his gout and his milk of the poppy usage in order to appear less formidable than he is. Gout is, to my understanding, something that can be bad on some days and good on others, a chronic arthritis type of thing.
However I had an argument in another topic on this exact same topic and it ended in a draw. The poster argued that Doran would have a weak heart from years of weak activity and that Hotah's POV (one narrator I feel we can trust to be honest) shows the truth of this.
So Doran may be exaggerating the extent of his health or he may not, but my point is that if Doran did not have gout, it would be necessary to invent gout. He's turned a negative into a positive by turning peoples low expectations of him into a positive.

DORAN'S REACH
Just as a little man can cast a very big shadow, so a man who sits on his arse all day can have an extremely long reach. Let's look at potentially, the allies Doran has, and the potential threats he has removed.
Quentyn's proposal to Dany presumably means Dany thinks of Dorne as friendly.
Arianne's proposal to Aegon, accepted or not would mean the same.
Nymeria is on the council at King's Landing. If Cersei manages to get away with the trial, Nymeria's in the perfect position to keep tabs on her, or slip something in her tea. Then there's only Rickon left to go.
Tyene is going to be working with the High Septon, who may end up being the most influential person in King's Landing if things go the other way.
Whatever Sarella is looking for in Oldtown, I believe it's of immense strategic value.
Dorne has established links with Illyrio Mopatis, one of the most influential schemers in the books, and potentially with Varys too. Good friends to have I would say.
Arianne has been neutered, and has a Snake watching her.
Darkstar may also still be an ace in the hole. Put it this way, I could see the next prologue being a Balon Swann POV.
So we have a situation where Dorne seems to be better positioned than the other kingdoms, and nobody seems to be aware they're doing it. Everyone else has their eye on other threats.

IN CONCLUSION
If you made it this far, thanks for reading, I admire your patience, and I'd love to hear your feedback. I appreciate a lot of this is speculation, and a little light on textual evidence. However there are lots of things that do not make sense to me about Doran and Dorne that do when I look at them this way. Suddenly these plans makes sense, and suddenly Doran starts to look pretty fucking badass to me. I also can't find much evidence against it, or rather when I do, I can always find a reason the information we receive may be deliberately misleading. When Doran speaks to Arianne, he has more reason to mistrust her and con her than he does to instantly forgive her, take her under his wing and hand her the keys to Dorne. At least in my opinion.
I would love to hear any feedback, positive or negative on this, and again, if you made it this far, thanks for reading.

[MotherAnduin]

Tywin called Doran a wimp in nicer terms. He doesn't respect Doran or any Martell in the slightest. All Tywin said about Doran was that Oberyn isn't a walkover like Doran is. Tywin has acted again and again against the Martells. He ordered raped the rape and murder of Doran's sister. He also ordered his niece and nephew to be butchered. He promised Martells justice about it and quickly backtracked from that promise the moment he could. Sorry, but Tywin has an extremely poor opinion about Doran.

[Gneisenau]

See it depends on your POV, I mean Dorne hasn't really been affected by the war, unlike the Riverlands...

I think this applies to real life too, like for example, usually the "great presidents" were involved in some war or conflict (FDR, Lincoln), but rarely do people put presidents like Eisenhower as a great president (despite the fact that Eisenhower had 8 years of calm, peace and prosperity).

[Wise Fool]

All good points. I think there's a reason we get so much Dorne POVs and action in Dorne and with the Dornish, and the reason is that Doran's a powerful and subtle player. He does seem to be more "grass" than "viper" - instead of simply lashing out against anyone he thinks is a foe, he spreads out, covers all grounds. He doesn't trust anyone, so each pawn he moves, he also has moves prepared against that very pawn, just in case. Very cautious, yes - which is why the chivalry-drunk he-man types disrespect him - but he's alive, he's a Prince, and he's got a good shot of being the last kingdom standing. Cautious, intelligent types who are also ruthless and cunning win. He plays the game as LF outlined it, and as one plays chess.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Sorry, but *crackpot alert*. Just too many things that don't add up or based on wrong assumptions.

Tywin Lannister doesn't respect Doran at all.

Quentyn was never Doran's heir. Arianne was and still is. There would be two ways to get her out of the way: killing or queening her.

The Trystane-Myrcella marriage would end the blood feud with the Lannisters. Not happening.

Darkstar wounding Myrcella got dangerously close to getting Dorne in open rebellion at just the wrong time.

Illyrio has had no dealings with Dorne at all. They are working at cross purposes.

Doran is very ill. We've got a good impression how ill. He has to have his business in order and his heir informed in case he kicks the bucket.

And I haven't even touched Doran deliberately sacrificing half his family and a good grip on Dorne for a blood feud caused by murdered family. Doesn't add up at all.

By and large, it is way more likely that Doran's plans have simply cooked too long.

[Ser Underline]

Doran's been cooking his plan for what, 20 years? And STILL he waits and he remains patient. I believe it, the man is the most patient in the 7 kingdoms, and he's got plenty of time and space to think, sitting in the Gardens. Mayhaps the death of Quent was a sad thing, but he really was expendable - if he had succeeded - great!; if not - well, plan B time.

I believe he's working with Darkstar. I for one am i fan of the Gerold Martell theory, where Doran is actually Darkie's uncle. Doran is the grass which hides the viper. He's lost his plan A viper in KL, but hey - plan B time, and some say Darkstar is more viper than Daddy O ever was. He can be the one the Dornish people will follow, he who made the first sword swing at the member of the Royal family. (After Doran dies of course.)

[Lord Damian]

I must ask this of Doran, When was he planning on reaching Viserys with the wedding contract for him and Dany to Arianne and Quentin? He only made a move for Dany when he heard about Dragons. He did nothing that we know of, through covert means to help keep the Targs safe while in exile either. This was his biggest mistake. Despite all this however, I blame Dany on the rejection of Quentin and with him, the rejection of Dorne as well.

[Minsc]

Doran is extremely overrated, seeing how his best accomplishment (keeping his region out of the war) is equally matched by Lysa Tully. Moreover, in respect to his desire for vengeance he is beaten by a 10 year old girl who has done better then him in that regards.

[I S**t Gold]

Sorry, but Tywin has an extremely poor opinion about Doran.

"[Doran] is cautious man, a reasoned man, subtle, deliberate, even indolent to a degree. He is a man who weighs the consequences of every word and every action. [14]"

Guess who said that? Go on guess! For an enemy that's quite nice isn't it? I should have put that quote at the top of the post to be honest. I guess to some extent that's open to interpretation, but that is exactly the philosophy I'd like a leader to have..

See it depends on your POV, I mean Dorne hasn't really been affected by the war, unlike the Riverlands...

I think this applies to real life too, like for example, usually the "great presidents" were involved in some war or conflict (FDR, Lincoln), but rarely do people put presidents like Eisenhower as a great president (despite the fact that Eisenhower had 8 years of calm, peace and prosperity).

This is exactly the sense I'm getting from Doran. He does things in a different way, certainly not the Ned Stark way, but I feel like it's a pretty smart way myself. I wish I'd thought to use real world analogies. Thank you.

All good points. I think there's a reason we get so much Dorne POVs and action in Dorne and with the Dornish, and the reason is that Doran's a powerful and subtle player. He does seem to be more "grass" than "viper" - instead of simply lashing out against anyone he thinks is a foe, he spreads out, covers all grounds. He doesn't trust anyone, so each pawn he moves, he also has moves prepared against that very pawn, just in case. Very cautious, yes - which is why the chivalry-drunk he-man types disrespect him - but he's alive, he's a Prince, and he's got a good shot of being the last kingdom standing. Cautious, intelligent types who are also ruthless and cunning win. He plays the game as LF outlined it, and as one plays chess.

This is the thing for me too. Why put so much emphasis on Dorne and Doran if there is absolutely nothing going on except what appears to be going on? That doesn't seem very GRRM.

Snip.

Firstly thank you. This is my first topic, and now someone has used the word 'crackpot alert' I honestly feel like I've arrived.

I addressed the Tywin thing higher up.

RE - Arianne. Doran said she was his heir, the same way he wrote a letter to Quentyn saying she was his heir. You are right in that she has a claim. Samwell Tarly had a claim to the Tarly estate. Theon Greyjoy had a claim with the Ironborn. However for differing reasons, their respective parents decided they didn't trust them with the realm so they took steps to make sure it never happened. I believe Doran puts Dorne above his interests in the same way and that he is markedly more subtle about it. If the goal is the Iron Throne maybe he could tell her Dornish Law doesn't apply? If not, then he'll have to be more creative.

The Trystane-Myrcella marriage isn't going to happen tomorrow, but what if there was no more Cersei and no more Tommen? Then there's no blood feud, and the marriage puts Dorne in a good position. We have no evidence Dorne are planning to take out Cersei and Tommen, but we do know there's two Sand Snakes awfully close to the action. What happened the last time a Sand Snake entered Kings Landing?

Illyrio has had dealings with Dorne, he said so to Tyrion. In work so I can't pinpoint the text but essentially I think there was a marriage contract (between Viserys and Arianne?), or at any rate some event where Illyrio and Dorne signed the same document. I can say with much more certainty we get this information told to Tyrion by Illyrio when Tyrion is a guest in his house.

I don't think Doran is faking either, but the only diagnosable condition we get is gout which is why I mentioned the possibility he was faking it as being interesting. I also mentioned the fact there's a lot of evidence he isn't so I kind of did your job there for you on this one. The point was that Doran turns his infirmity into an advantage, in that his physical deficiencies make him seem incapable, and that Doran is happy for people to think that, because it's a silly thing to think. It might well be why he's escalating his plans at this point, and I could see that when his plans come to fruition he might well be not around to enjoy the results.

I never said Doran deliberately sacrificed his family. With Quentyn I don't believe he planned for Quent to meet the dragon, I just doubt he was upset when that happened. If he'd cared about Quent he could have helped him in two ways with fatherly advice he doesn't put forward. Firstly Doran went a long way to woo his own bride, successfully I might add. Then he clearly has access to information on dragons, but he doesn't make it available to Quentyn because that would be making it available to the Yronwoods too. Either of those things could have saved Quent, but that doesn't matter to Doran. All that matters is that Quent gets to Dany and offers her his hand in marriage.

There's a great Selmy quote talking to Quentyn. 'Your father keeps his secrets well. Too well I fear.' That to me might be a bit of foreshadowing. I don't think he plans to sacrifice Arianne, I think he's probably quite fond of her for the simple reason he watched her grow up. Instead I believe he is manoeuvring to deny her her birthright. I'm not sure I follow when you say he sacrificed a good grip on Dorne. The whole point of what I'm saying is that everything Doran does tightens his grip on Dorne.

Oh and finally I just found this quote from GRRM, which doesn't even go here, but is cool enough.

"Doran plays to win, whether at cyvasse or the game of thrones.[16]"

Thanks for your feedback though, you make a lot of good points.

I believe he's working with Darkstar. I for one am i fan of the Gerold Martell theory, where Doran is actually Darkie's uncle. Doran is the grass which hides the viper. He's lost his plan A viper in KL, but hey - plan B time, and some say Darkstar is more viper than Daddy O ever was. He can be the one the Dornish people will follow, he who made the first sword swing at the member of the Royal family. (After Doran dies of course.)

I did like the Darkstar's father thread and couldn't see anything wrong with it. I really like the idea that Darkstar could end up being a Dornish figurehead, that never occurred to me at all. I saw him more as a guy who does the horrible shit but makes people uncomfortable. Thank you, that's cool stuff.

I must ask this of Doran, When was he planning on reaching Viserys with the wedding contract for him and Dany to Arianne and Quentin? He only made a move for Dany when he heard about Dragons. He did nothing that we know of, through covert means to help keep the Targs safe while in exile either. This was his biggest mistake. Despite all this however, I blame Dany on the rejection of Quentin and with him, the rejection of Dorne as well.

I wish I had a conclusive answer for this, but I think it can be explained by the fact that for a long while there was no strategic advantage to pressing ahead with those plans. Viserys was the beggar king, so let Dany marry the Dothraki guy, bring them onside. Now when the dragons come, that all changes. Suddenly there's a big threat to Dorne which is just badly in the way if she's headed to Westeros. Dany did reject Quentyn, but the only thing that gave her pause was that she remembered being told as a child that Dorne were her friends. She didn't reject Dorne, she rejected Quent.

I don't blame Dany for Quent's death, I don't blame Doran. I'm saying that Quentyn dying didn't really matter in terms of Doran's plan.

Moreover, in respect to his desire for vengeance he is beaten by a 10 year old girl who has done better then him in that regards.

Funny, because the reason I actually ended up writing this topic was that he seemed to me to be extremely underrated by a lot of people. I think his best accomplishments include snuffing out a rebellion planned by his own daughter in a manner that only Varys could match. We've got examples of supposedly great leaders who fell for shit like that fatally - Robb Stark, Robert Baratheon. I think they certainly include going to Kings Landing and taking out Tywin, and apparently taking out the Mountain who appears to have a flexible approach to being murdered, but it would seem churlish to criticise Doran for not anticipating that.

For a second I thought you meant Myrcella by the '10 year old girl' which confused me but you're talking about Arya, aren't you? She's definitely done a lot of revenge, that's true, but what exactly has she gained from it? She's one of the most tragic characters in the book for me Arya, do we ever get any sense that any of it makes her feel better?

As for Lysa, you're right in that she also kept the Eyrie out of the war. She also got tricked into poisoning the one man who might have been trusted to rule them honourably in Jon Arryn. However let me ask you, is keeping the Eyrie out of the war such a bad thing? Lysa did it because she was terrified, confused and a little mad. It was still better for all the smallfolk under her rule who weren't forced to wield pitchforks and rush at loads of men in armour with better weapons. It's only the knights who are seeing their arse about it, the smallfolk don't have any choice in the matter. So maybe she's not such a bad ruler, if you're the little guy, even if it's a very different thought process leading her to that goal. She's right about one thing, Lysa, who in their right mind would try to take the Eyrie.

I'll also add that when Littlefinger 'succeeds' her, he is very keen to follow pretty much the same policy, and we know he had Lysa's ear. I think the policy of sitting there and doing nothing may have been initiated by Littlefinger because he wanted to make sure the place was in good nick when he took it over. If Doran's doing as well as Littlefinger, he's doing very well indeed.

[King Tam Stark]

If Doran was as smart as he's been made out he would let his enemys under rate him but those close to him would know him better and would have respect for him, they don't can you imagine any other Great houses own relatives being so disrespectful and openly challengeing there leaders authority

[Minsc]

Funny, because the reason I actually ended up writing this topic was that he seemed to me to be extremely underrated by a lot of people. I think his best accomplishments include snuffing out a rebellion planned by his own daughter in a manner that only Varys could match.

Overcoming his daughter's idiotic plan is hardly comparable to Varys, moreover it is hardly an accomplishment.

[I S**t Gold]

If Doran was as smart as he's been made out he would let his enemys under rate him but those close to him would know him better and would have respect for him, they don't can you imagine any other Great houses own relatives being so disrespectful and openly challengeing there leaders authority

I did cover this in the OP, but it's dead long, so I forgive you. When the Sand Snakes are being openly disrespectful to Doran, we always see it from Arianne's POV. Personally I think the Sand Snakes are absolutely onside and loyal, and that the comments are purely for Arianne's benefit. Why? Doran doesn't trust her. She had a relationship with Arys, who is sworn to the 'enemy'. Who knows what kind of shit she told him, who knows what kind of shit she might tell other people. Not even to fuck Doran up, just because she has a habit of running her mouth off. If she spreads disinformation that is fucking fantastic, if she spreads the truth then not so much.

Doran's best pal Oberyn took the Sand Snakes and trained them for years and years, but trained them for what? I think we'll find out in Winds of Winter. He obviously trained them to be vipers, but I'd go a bit further, he trained them to be vipers who were absolutely loyal to Doran.

Doran is the grass that hides the vipers. It suits Doran if people think his kingdom is in disarray, that his most useful assets are on the verge of open rebellion. Firstly it makes Doran look like a peace keeper, someone you can deal with, much better than the alternatives of the Sand Snakes who seem to be a law unto themselves.

If Doran can't trust them, why give them such important jobs? Look at Nymeria, on the Kings council. How does it make sense to send someone he can't trust to do that for him? He presents it as getting them out of the way, but I think they're onside myself. Admittedly it makes sense if Doran's just shit, but then why go into much details of all the Dorne machinations if they're just shit plan after shit plan?

My feeling is there's a reason there are two POV's in Dorne. I could see Doran letting his guard down in Hotah's POV's but never in Arianne's. She's the one he's getting out of the way in my opinion.

[I S**t Gold]

Overcoming his daughter's idiotic plan is hardly comparable to Varys, moreover it is hardly an accomplishment.

Not only overcoming his daughters plan, but also putting her in a position where she can't trust any of her trusted allies. I'm not comparing the way he did it to the way that Varys did it. I'm saying that Varys would find out about something before it even began in the same way Doran did. In fairness I listed other accomplishments too.

[brAnthelAstgreenseer]

Some part of the op should be in spoilers for people who have not read the sample chapters of TWOW. I like the theory other than that.

[I S**t Gold]

Some part of the op should be in spoilers for people who have not read the sample chapters of TWOW. I like the theory other than that.

I know exactly which bit of the OP you're referring to and if someone could explain how to do that I'd be happy to. New to the forums I'm afraid. I tried to be light on detail on that point, because it was referred to in Dance, but if someone can explain how to spoiler I will spoiler away. Thanks for reading.

[brAnthelAstgreenseer]

The icon above U which looks like a green-bluish box(whatever colour you are seeing) is special bbc code (3rd from top left) .Click on it you will see the spoiler box in it. Just put whatever content you want to hide in that. :)

[Minsc]

I'm saying that Varys would find out about something before it even began in the same way Doran did. In fairness I listed other accomplishments too.

I am guessing most players have a general spy system to help discover things before they happen.

[King Tam Stark]

I did cover this in the OP, but it's dead long, so I forgive you. When the Sand Snakes are being openly disrespectful to Doran, we always see it from Arianne's POV. Personally I think the Sand Snakes are absolutely onside and loyal, and that the comments are purely for Arianne's benefit. Why? Doran doesn't trust her. She had a relationship with Arys, who is sworn to the 'enemy'. Who knows what kind of shit she told him, who knows what kind of shit she might tell other people. Not even to fuck Doran up, just because she has a habit of running her mouth off. If she spreads disinformation that is fucking fantastic, if she spreads the truth then not so much.

Doran's best pal Oberyn took the Sand Snakes and trained them for years and years, but trained them for what? I think we'll find out in Winds of Winter. He obviously trained them to be vipers, but I'd go a bit further, he trained them to be vipers who were absolutely loyal to Doran.

Doran is the grass that hides the vipers. It suits Doran if people think his kingdom is in disarray, that his most useful assets are on the verge of open rebellion. Firstly it makes Doran look like a peace keeper, someone you can deal with, much better than the alternatives of the Sand Snakes who seem to be a law unto themselves.

If Doran can't trust them, why give them such important jobs? Look at Nymeria, on the Kings council. How does it make sense to send someone he can't trust to do that for him? He presents it as getting them out of the way, but I think they're onside myself. Admittedly it makes sense if Doran's just shit, but then why go into much details of all the Dorne machinations if they're just shit plan after shit plan?

My feeling is there's a reason there are two POV's in Dorne. I could see Doran letting his guard down in Hotah's POV's but never in Arianne's. She's the one he's getting out of the way in my opinion.

well thank you for forgiving me lol

I did read the op in full and hear what you are saying but im just not convinced its part of a super devious plan to lull people in to a false sense of him and that he actually has complete control and respect from the sand snakes, the text certainly doesn't suggest it although I wouldn't totally rule it out tbf to you, are you female because the plan seems to be the same as trying to read a womans actions "believe the opposite of what his actions tell you" :)

your theory on why he let arianne go so far in her plan was extremely risky and messy and could have been stopped earlier without myrcella needing to be injured, have darkstar kill a few expendable soldiers instead of injuring her and risking trouble with the lannisters so there's to many holes in that part for me to accept that was how he wanted it to play out

[I S**t Gold]

The icon above U which looks like a green-bluish box(whatever colour you are seeing) is special bbc code (3rd from top left) .Click on it you will see the spoiler box in it. Just put whatever content you want to hide in that. :)

I have to apologize. Your directions were spot on, but it looks like it's a lot more difficult to go back and spoiler stuff as an edit. When I use the spoiler code on already typed text it won't let me click OK. I am genuinely puzzled here.

I am guessing most players have a general spy system to help discover things before they happen.

True, a lot do, but also a lot don't. It doesn't seem to be a very Northern way of doing things, the likes of Dany and Aegon don't seem to go into subterfuge.

I'm just saying that to me, it seems as though Doran has an efficient system. Obviously though, there's a debate to be had over that, we don't have much to go on.

your theory on why he let arianne go so far in her plan was extremely risky and messy and could have been stopped earlier without myrcella needing to be injured, have darkstar kill a few expendable soldiers instead of injuring her and risking trouble with the lannisters so there's to many holes in that part for me to accept that was how he wanted it to play out

Sorry, didn't mean anything by that other than I had already posted my reasons for believing the Sand Snakes are loyal. I appreciate they aren't conclusive, they're suspicions, it's just I really don't have any more to offer than that, but those are the reasons I think it.

I'm not a woman though, but that made me chuckle.

You're right about the Myrcella thing. I can't be sure it wasn't an unintended product of trusting Darkstar, or tbf that Darkstar was the mole. However I would say that I don't think he intends for the Lannisters to find out. This is why he 'cooperates' with Balon in the search for Darkstar and sends a Sand Snake along for the ride. I mean that has to mean bye bye Balon.

There's definitely a lot of holes in pretty much everything, especially with the stuff that seems to be directly contradicted in the text. I appreciate people pointing them out. I'm not an ASOIAF expert, but I did get very into this theory for the theory's sake.

I started out with the assumption that 'Doran Is Awesome' and went to try to find a possible explanation for every one of his weirder-seeming moves. I will admit that this is going to lend itself to quite skewed conclusions. The appeal for me was that they were quite interesting conclusions. When I first read the Dorne chapters, I could hardly see the point of them, so it was quite a turnaround to get to this point. There's no pride thrown in with the series, but I'm enjoying trying to defend it as a mental exercise, if nothing else. Thanks for the responses mate.

[Jon of the Dead]

Sending Quentyn to Dany was stupid but it wasn't such a huge mistake overall, as the OP says.

But letting Arianne run off with Myrcella was what cost him the game. All he had to do was to declare for both Targs, and meanwhile just wait until Stannis, Shireen, Tommen, Dany and Aegon kick the bucket. Then, when the dust settled, he could've marry Myrcella, the last remaining heir on the IT, to Trystane and boom! Dorne wins the game.

But I don't think this is gonna happen. Doran had no reason to wound Myrcella, let alone kill her, so I don't think Dorkstar was working for him. DS was working alone or he's someone else's pawn. And I think his blade was poisoned and Myrcella is already dead, and Doran is using Rosamund as a decoy.

So if Myrcella is really dead, Dorne will have to bet all on Aegon. And I'm sure that will work out just fine /sarcasm