DORAN'S LAW - The Grass That Hides The Viper

[jarl the climber]

I'm not sure if Wilas and Oberyn were exactly freinds but they did correspond with each other according to Oberyn. They shared an interest in horses and both of them are intellectualy inclined(Oberyn did attend the Citadel for a time). Lady Ollenna is fond of WIlas and stated that unlike most men she does not consider him a fool. Yet her display in the yard where she call Ellaria the serpents whore could indicate that Wilas is merely being polite for reasons of state. Or Oberyn and her could have laughed over the scene later that night while having a secret meeting. In other words the whole thing might have been staged to make the Lannisters nervous about keeping their alliance together. Still there is no love loss between the Reach and Dorne and Oberyns statement about him and Wilas is about the only thing that contradicts the reputed hostility. Ollennas statement about Wilas might have been meant to reassure Sansa, she had to admit he was a cripple was she going to admit that he was an imbecile as well?

[chrisdaw]

I'm not sure, while its true that Oberyn thought poorly of Joffrey he might have considered it better to keep Joff where he was and have him married to Margery. Having Loras kill Joff for mistreating Marge would have been favorable outcome for the Martells. Considering Tywins age and the arduos campaign he had just fought, his death by a stomach disorder might have seemed natural. Jaimies disability would have made a duel between him and the Viper unlikely. I do not know if Obeyn poisoned Tywin or not. Its not impossible and he might have had the oppurtunity but I can not go any further with that theory.

It's an assumption that Loras would kill Joff, and if it were to happen there's no control over when or where. When Doran would have worked out the plan Jaime was not maimed, nor was he known to be maimed when Oberyn and Tywin broke bread (that's when Jaime arrived back) which is when it's alleged Oberyn poisoned Tywin. And it's a fairly decent bet that in Jaime's absence he'd get to face Gregor, which Oberyn would consider an even better outcome.

Here's the thing though, he'd be handing himself over to the Lannister's as a murderer of one of them. Look at what they did to Ned. I mean regardless of what he asks for, he's just killed Daddy. I just don't see it being a sensible move. Not if you can get away with it.

I agree standing for Tyrion was opportunistic. I think if there was no trial, Gregor might very well have ended up dying on the bog somewhere and Oberyn would have done things stealthily.

Again that's why Myrcella is important and why Doran is the shield. If he is not to be caught and stand trial then there must be another reason why Doran calls himself Oberyn's shield, as there's no other going theory as to how he shielded or intended to shield Oberyn, the theory primarily gives relevance to that quote which otherwise has none.

I don't allege Oberyn poisoned Joff, although he may well have, I theorise that he intended to, as it gives relevance to his conversations with Tyrion both before and after the wedding. Certainly there was a LF/Tyrell plot to poison Joff.

I don't think Varys had any intention for Tyrion to kill Tywin.

[I S**t Gold]

Ollennas statement about Wilas might have been meant to reassure Sansa, she had to admit he was a cripple was she going to admit that he was an imbecile as well?

I have the feeling that Willas will be pretty awesome just because everyone in ASOIAF who is crippled tends to be pretty awesome. Plus he's been corresponding with Oberyn which might imply he's an intellectual equal of him as well. Just my hunch.

Snip.

Well the shield thing could just refer to all the times he's had to bail Oberyn out of trouble and smooth things over. Oberyn has a nasty habit of poisoning Yronwood's and crippling Tyrell's, so that's two instances where Doran has had to step in on Oberyn's behalf. In your scenario Myrcella would be the shield really, with Oberyn and Doran both hiding behind her.

I don't think Joffrey was a priority compared to Tywin and the Mountain who were directly responsible for the vendetta. He was a much higher priority for Olenna because she knew he was going to be marrying Margaery imminently.

The Tyrion thing just seems too convenient as a genuine coincidence for me.

[qixoticneurotic]

i think the roosevelt paralells are pretty obvious. i think doran will cover all his bases and make an overture to stannis as well

[I S**t Gold]

i think the roosevelt paralells are pretty obvious. i think doran will cover all his bases and make an overture to stannis as well

Haha. They weren't obvious to me until you just mentioned it, but it certainly seems obvious now. The Stannis thing would definitely be in line with his other moves so far, unless Stannis is so weakened by the messing about in the north it doesn't seem worth the trouble.

[setmyheartafire]

I always thought that when Varys called Petyr the second most powerful that he was really saying he, Varys, was.

On the whole the Dornish chapters have bored me to sleep often so I am really not well versed on their contents BUT...

I just wonder if anyone has drawn connections between Doran's revenge and Shae?

Namely, has anyone considered she was a spy? I did some searching to try and find this topic but didn't see any.

In the show I noticed that they put two foreign girls in camp: Talisa and Shae. Those of us who read the books were miffed at the Talisa plot but WHAT IF that was an on screen ironic parallel. Consider...

Talisa: Planted by Tywin to undermine Robb.

Shae: Planted by Doran to undermine Tywin.

It has a nice congruency.

Shae really did finally ruin Tywin's legacy. His honor was literally shown to be shit. His own daughter saw his "whore" in his bed. His own son shot him dead. His other rejected his wishes. Tywin's legacy is shot!

Is Varys part of the Doran plot? Did he move Shae into place for Doran?

Is there a secret alliance between Varys, Illyrio, and Doran?

I've read somewhere that Lemore is Mellario, that Doran has known about Aegon the entire time and has just been biding his time to get Arianne on the throne.

[Ludd]

I think Doran's plan is poortly written. While the character he portrays is great, there are so many holes in his plan it is silly. Now I do not blame Doran - I blame GRRM.

The dual marriage plan was fine - except that it should have been organised when Arianne was 16 not 22, and BEFORE Dany was married. Contact with Viserys should have been made much, much earlier.

[Nucky Thompson]

What I'd like to add to this theory, is the similarity between Dorne's and the Vale's lack of involvement in the War of the Five Kings. In the case of the Vale, it was due to Littlefinger strictly forbidding it. However, I believe that Dorne also remained neutral due to Varys being Doran's pawn. The involvement of Varys and Illyrio which was stated above can also be looked at from the opposite perspective: they may be under Doran's command and not vice versa. What I don't seem to agree with is the speculation that Myrcella is being prepared for a marriage to Trystane. It seems unlikely that Doran would allow any offspring of Tywin to survive at all, let alone have them crowned, or worse still, uniting their houses. What Myrcella's purpose, at best, is to be a valuable hostage to stay the Lannister's hand should the upcoming war go wrong and Dorne faces an invasion.

[I S**t Gold]

Wow, just when I think this thread is dead... thanks for the input people.

@Setmyheartafire - RE - Talisa, I may have missed something, but I thought the change from the books that miffed people was precisely that she wasn't planted and a genuine love interest. As far as I'm aware there's no evidence that Tywin was involved and this was more something that happened naturally that worked out great for him. RE - Shae, I guess my question is if she was sent to undermine Tywin why bring Tyrion into it? I'm pretty sure she was manipulated to a degree by Varys, and I can't rule out your theory, but I was personally under the impression they took advantage of her vulnerable situation.

@ Ludd - I can understand why you might think that. Initially they were possibly my least favourite part of the books but I've found they improve greatly on re-reading and I feel like there's a myriad of possibilities presented in the text that make very intrigued to see where it goes. I guess we'll find out in the next two books.

@ Nucky - Thanks a lot for this. I definitely like the synergy between the Vale and Dorne now you point it out. There's that scene in GOT where Arya inadvertently eavesdrops on Varys and Illyrio and they refer repeatedly to a third person. I would dearly love to think that Doran is pulling the strings, but even if he isn't I still can't think of a better candidate to be that third person in the conspiracy. RE- Myrcella you raise a point that I am surprised I never considered. I am totally in agreement that Lannister hatred outweighs strategic value for Doran, and if my 'Darkstar is the mole' theory turns out to be true it might explain why he took a swing at her.

[Nucky Thompson]

Another similarity between Varys and Doran is their seeming fondness for children - i.e. Doran's Water Gardens. Now, it might be a coincidence, but what if Varys' "For the children!" is to be interpreted as "For the children [of the Water Gardens]"? It would be too scary a thought if we consider that this is where he gets his little birds from, but there may be a connection there, too. And it's not entirely clear whether Doran is the one calling the shots, Varys may be the one in charge, but given Doran's stealthy attitude, he seems more likely to be the mastermind. There may be more to Doran' connection with the Free Cities, too. His Norvosi wife may be the one who is in charge, after all - and it may be her who set the agenda of the two residents of the Free Cities (Illyrio and Varys).

What could be considered in this line of thinking, are two GRRM quotes, which apparently infer what is going to happen at the end of the series (at least according to members of these forums which have quoted them). One of those says that "Doran plays to win." - which seems a logical motivation, but is also viewed as suggestiong that Doran will be at least close to winning the Game of Thrones. Now, if we contrast this with another quote, which cautions us to not compare Stannis with a certain English king (forgot which one exactly), the one who won the War of the Roses. Therefore, we might also infer that Stannis will be the one to win the dynastic struggle. It is unclear whether we could reconcile those two quotes (if interpreted correctly), but it seems that they provide food for thought and Stannis and Doran aren't exiting the stage any time soon.

[Mithras]

“Your father,” said Prince Oberyn, “may not live forever.”

Something about the way he said it made the hairs on the back of Tyrion’s neck bristle. Suddenly he was mindful of Elia again, and all that Oberyn had said as they crossed the field of ashes. He wants the head that spoke the words, not just the hand that swung the sword. “It is not wise to speak such treasons in the Red Keep, my prince. The little birds are listening.”

“You will have no cause for complaint. Though Ser Gregor may. However thick his plate, there will be gaps at the joints. Inside the elbow and knee, beneath the arms... I will find a place to tickle him, I promise you.” He set the spear aside. “It is said that a Lannister always pays his debts. Perhaps you will return to Sunspear with me when the day’s bloodletting is done. My brother Doran would be most pleased to meet the rightful heir to Casterly Rock... especially if he brought his lovely wife, the Lady of Winterfell.”

Does the snake think I have Sansa squirreled away somewhere, like a nut I’m hoarding for winter? If so, Tyrion was not about to disabuse him. “A trip to Dorne might be very pleasant, now that I reflect on it.”

“Plan on a lengthy visit.” Prince Oberyn sipped his wine. “You and Doran have many matters of mutual interest to discuss. Music, trade, history, wine, the dwarf’s penny... the laws of inheritance and succession. No doubt an uncle’s counsel would be of benefit to Queen Myrcella in the trying times ahead.”

If Varys had his little birds listening, Oberyn was giving them a ripe earful. “I believe I will have that cup of wine,” said Tyrion. Queen Myrcella? It would have been more tempting if only he did have Sansa tucked beneath his cloak. If she declared for Myrcella over Tommen, would the north follow? What the Red Viper was hinting at was treason. Could Tyrion truly take up arms against Tommen, against his own father? Cersei would spit blood. It might be worth it for that alone.

Two times Tyrion fears that the little birds may hear them. Later in the tunnels, he understands he was right to fear because it was very easy to eyedrop secret dialogues, let alone Oberyn’s cocky sentences. I think the bolded parts are very important in understanding Doran’s game and they are especially told loud fort he little birds to hear.

[Coldwater Stone]

snip

Two times Tyrion fears that the little birds may hear them. Later in the tunnels, he understands he was right to fear because it was very easy to eyedrop secret dialogues, let alone Oberyn’s cocky sentences. I think the bolded parts are very important in understanding Doran’s game and they are especially told loud fort he little birds to hear.

Perhaps this belongs in heresy or crakpot, but Oberyn twice alludes to Tyrion as rightful heir and laws of inheritance and succession, which would support those who theorize that Jaime/Cersei are not legitimate offspring of Tywin, but rather Aerys.