DORAN'S LAW - The Grass That Hides The Viper

[TheTowerOfJoy]

It's nice, I like it a lot. The 'more viper than Oberyn' quote does seem significant to me. It adds a little frisson to the idea of Darkstar going rogue also.

There's a pretty well fleshed out theory in the link below that pulls it all together, though it's in a spoiler section, so I'm going to attempt to put it in spoiler tags:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/93481-theory-darkstars-father-twow-spoilers/

[I S**t Gold]

Snip.

Thanks mate. Seems plausible to me.

[Kasporio]

Ok i didn't read the last few (exaustives) posts. Tywin poisoning ? is there any clue he was poisened? This piece of trash, the red viper, was never close to him until tyrion's trial.

About Tywin's management ... Not the same as Doran, really. Doran had Robb imprisoned, probably, he's too nice to order (or let happen) the murder of a grieving youth...

Remember the tarbecks and reynes? Tywin is ruthless, and, imo, have many sociopathic traits (like most of his children), he's manipulative, lack empathy, utterly cruel... well he's the shark in the jar. Doran, in 15 years always avoided fighting. He sent his son to yronwood because he tried to avoid conflict with his mightiest bannerman. He's realistic but not pragmatic. The grudge between yronwood and martell, so far, is only Oberyn's fault. So if Doran tried to avoid conflict, it was : A/ Yronwood was stronger

B/ He could not afford a civil war because he planned a move against the lannisters.

Anyway, martells and yronwood were united by this act, the stupid journey to meereen proves it : Cletus gave his life, Arch had his hands burnt.

Imo, most plans don't come to fruition because of random event anyway : Cersei, despite being dumb and cruel, never intended to have Ned executed, it resulted from Joff will (ok cersei is responsible for him being a jerk) and Slynt eagerness to please the king.

Tyrion/Tywin : i don't believe Varys planned to get rid of tywin that way, but he saw the opportunity. It's Jaime confession which lead Tyrion to kill Tywin.

Darkstar : So he's supposed to be Doran's undercover operative ? That's why even the almighty Areo couldn't stop him ? I can't believe it. Doran did his best to avoid an open war, ok, but to order the maiming of Myrcella? what the point? Know he's sending her back to KL (minus an ear), and will lose any leverage against cersei. Ok it could be because cersei had lost any power.

About the lannisters/tyrell union, i never said the tyrell were fiercely loyal to the lannisters, they were the second most powerful family, know they're the first, but cersei did most of the job. Tommen, anyway, will feel better away from the dear cersei, but with kevan's death, it's not impossible Cersei could take the upper hand.

About Varys/illyrio, i have no clue they was part of Doran's plan. Synergy, like you said.

But to conclude, if Doran's plan was to send his bro to poison tywin and clegane, well it was successful to that extent.

And about quentyn? what is the point? Did he sent him to die in meereen because he was wary of him ? What is it left? a son too young, a wayward daughter.

If he's truly a good schemer, he's even grimer than tywin. Ty never intended to sacrifice anyone of his family (Tyrion except).

No, to me, Doran is too cautious, he lost 2 people he cared for too avoid a war.

Unlike Manderly. He lost only one son but he dealt with the frey's and boltons in their own ways.

[chrisdaw]

OBERYN

Now our brushes with the Viper have given us the impression of a man who is a law unto himself, and in many ways that's true, but there's little doubt that Oberyn and Doran were devoted to each other. Oberyn's actions in Kings Landing are potentially nothing short of awe inspiring, but needless to say I believe Doran was in on the whole thing.

This is mainly because if Oberyn was so set on revenge, why didn't he do it earlier?

First off there's nothing to suggest Dorne and Varys/Illyrio are in cahoots to any degree whatsoever. Against it GRRM has confirmed the marriage pact between Arianne and Viserys was unknown to Varys and Illyrio and Doran states he fears the spider's spies.

The reason Doran and Oberyn didn't act earlier is two-fold.

Oberyn's actions are a means to an end, whatever he may have done or been intending to do, however conveniently vengeful, they're a step in a bigger plan. He's there now because his actions would destabilise the IT as a means of making it easier to conquer for Dany and Quentyn. It is preparation for their coming, and to have acted earlier would have given the IT time to regroup and again stabilise before their arrival.

The second reason is Myrcella. Doran is Oberyn's shield because he holds Myrcella and the Lannister's hence have less options against an aggressive Oberyn.

It's my belief Oberyn was sent to KL to eventually be brought to trial for murdering Tywin, although he himself may have altered his plan to include the murder Joff once he realised what Joff was. If Doran didn't hold Myrcella the Lannisters would most likely just throw Oberyn in a dungeon and then kill him, but because of Myrcella they'd have to take it to a trial. If he is put on trial Oberyn could then request a trial by combat, in which case it can be expected he'd face either Gregor or Jaime, both of which Dorne hold among the principle offenders.

When Oberyn won, he'd be free to go, and the remaining Lannisters would then suffer the pain that Dorne has felt, that a murderer of their beloved family members would be remain free and there's nothing they can do about it.

[I S**t Gold]

Snip

Basically there's a theory out there that Oberyn poisoned Tywin.

http://boiledleather.com/post/24196234491/tywin-lannister-dead-man-shitting

This is it. It seems plausible to be, although in fairness I don't view it as conclusive proof and you may see it differently. One of the first quotes prove that Oberyn was breaking bread with Mace and Tywin earlier on that evening so he had the means, the motive and the opportunity.

That's just one example of Tywin's management, and in general he puts a lot of thought into his plans which is why I made the comparison. Didn't say he was exactly the same in terms of personality and psychology, only that the attributes Tywin believes Doran has are attributes that Tywin himself has. I agree Doran wouldn't have gone the Red Wedding route.

I disagree strongly that the Yronwoods and Martells get on fine now. All the Quentyn story proves is that the Yronwoods and the Martells were working together. It does not prove in any way that they've put the past behind them. The Sand Snakes and Quentyn for example, have an extremely poor relationship, and the reason for this is absolutely that Quent is on the side of the Yronwoods and the Snakes definitely aren't.

Cersei wanted Ned to take the black, so essentially her plan was to 'destroy' him in that she wanted to win and leave him in a position where he never had any power. Also that's kind of irrelevant, because my point was that trusting Cersei led to the beheading, which is irrefutably true. There's no indication Doran is sending Myrcella back to Kings Landing. The last few posts contain a reassessed theory about the Darkstar as mole theory which is much better. I now believe the maiming of Myrcella was not part of Doran's plan. Oberyn's death may have changed things for Darkstar. The point of maiming Myrcella is something I was grappling with myself.

You said the Lannisters had the Tyrells, and I took that to mean that they had them in their pocket. The Tyrells are undeniably a future problem, but the Dornish aren't high on the Tyrell's list of priorities at the moment because the Dornish aren't attracting attention to their plans.

I do find it very implausible that Cersei is going to recover from all this. She has alienated the vast majority of her useful allies. Kevan had contacts and loads of loyal men, and for Tywin's guys supporting Kevan would be a natural progression. Qyburn seems to be hers, given that he owes his lofty position to her favour and is likely to lose it if she goes, and that could count for a lot to be fair. All we know about if Ungregor, but we also know he's been doing a lot of experiments for a very long time, so maybe there's more there. Aside from that, I figure the Tyrell's are likely to be actively against her, so for me she's living on borrowed time. If she did end up still in power, I figure that would likely be a good thing for her enemies, since she's rash, paranoid and incompetent.

Doran couldn't have anticipated Quentyn's death, and Oberyn only has himself to blame for his death because he started showboating which wasn't part of the plan. The point of the Quentyn thing was to propose to Dany. This means that when Dany gets to Dorne they are seen as friends whether she accepts or not. Strategically that could be huge. I did call Quent expendable in the OP, but I do now believe Doran is sad he didn't survive thanks to some quotes in the topic provided by one of the posters.

So yeah, I definitely think he's not as grim as Tywin, although I do think he would put the interests of Dorne above his own. I'm glad you mention Manderly actually, I think his style is very similar to Doran's.

The reason Doran and Oberyn didn't act earlier is two-fold.

Oberyn's actions are a means to an end, whatever he may have done or been intending to do, however conveniently vengeful, they're a step in a bigger plan. He's there now because his actions would destabilise the IT as a means of making it easier to conquer for Dany and Quentyn. It is preparation for their coming, and to have acted earlier would have given the IT time to regroup and again stabilise before their arrival.

The second reason is Myrcella. Doran is Oberyn's shield because he holds Myrcella and the Lannister's hence have less options against an aggressive Oberyn.

It's my belief Oberyn was sent to KL to eventually be brought to trial for murdering Tywin, although he himself may have altered his plan to include the murder Joff once he realised what Joff was. If Doran didn't hold Myrcella the Lannisters would most likely just throw Oberyn in a dungeon and then kill him, but because of Myrcella they'd have to take it to a trial. If he is put on trial Oberyn could then request a trial by combat, in which case it can be expected he'd face either Gregor or Jaime, both of which Dorne hold among the principle offenders.

When Oberyn won, he'd be free to go, and the remaining Lannisters would then suffer the pain that Dorne has felt, that a murderer of their beloved family members would be remain free and there's nothing they can do about it.

Aside from the coincidental synergy in their manoeuvring I agree with you, though I haven't given up on linking Dorne and Illyrio/Varys. I mistakenly thought they were both involved with the marriage pact.

I must say I am very interested in your take on Oberyn. I agree that Doran and Oberyn waited for a time that was right to strike, that's part of what makes the plan so interesting for me.

The idea that Oberyn wanted to be tried made my jaw drop to be honest. From their POV definitely it makes sense. Obviously we know Jaime wouldn't have defended Cersei, but Dorne wouldn't. Does that mean you think Oberyn defending Tyrion was a little bit of initiative? A chance to get Gregor and Jaime, as a two for one deal?

Also where does the Tyrion factor fit in? Coincidence?

I'm not sure I can get with the idea they wanted it to go to trial and be public, but I really like your reasoning and I really like the idea. I guess I don't see how that's better than just doing it all in secret and getting away with it clean. That said, it's a really interesting take on the whole thing for me. It would be very poetic.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

The idea that Oberyn wanted to be tried made my jaw drop to be honest. From their POV definitely it makes sense. Obviously we know Jaime wouldn't have defended Cersei, but Dorne wouldn't. Does that mean you think Oberyn defending Tyrion was a little bit of initiative? A chance to get Gregor and Jaime, as a two for one deal?

That would fit in with why Oberyn poisoned Tywin (since in this theory he was supposed to be on trial for murdering him in the first place), and knowing that he might not have another opportunity if Gregor was victorious (though he realized all he had to do was to knick Gregor and he'd get his revenge, eventually even if defeated).

I like it...

[TheTowerOfJoy]

Also where does the Tyrion factor fit in? Coincidence?

I'm not sure I can get with the idea they wanted it to go to trial and be public, but I really like your reasoning and I really like the idea. I guess I don't see how that's better than just doing it all in secret and getting away with it clean. That said, it's a really interesting take on the whole thing for me. It would be very poetic.

As for Varys/Illyrio... Is it possible that Varys found out that Oberyn poisoned Tywin, and used Tyrion to cover it up to keep Dorne out of the war, because he plans for Aegon to marry Arianne down the line and wants a fresh, unblemished Dornish army at his back?

That could explain Varys's motives without the need for Varys to be scheming with Doran.

[I S**t Gold]

The thing I like about it is it explains the coincidence of Tyrion and Oberyn. Obviously I was coming at it from completely the other direction, but 50,000 Dornish spears would be a considerable boost to Aegon's prospects, it has to be said.

One thing that just occurs to me about that prospective marriage is that if it happens it could actually undo a lot of Doran's good work. He gave Arianne free choice over the betrothal which to me always felt like he figured she was bound to refuse.

When you think about Dany, she's maybe not going to be too impressed when she hears about Aegon marrying Arianne, maybe interpret it as Dorne siding with the enemy and if a Dornish princess has just married him then Dorne is going to be squarely between the mummers dragon and the dragon queen. That's why I think that maybe this is a plan that works if it doesn't work, if you get me, but maybe doesn't work if it works.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

As for Varys/Illyrio... Is it possible that Varys found out that Oberyn poisoned Tywin, and used Tyrion to cover it up to keep Dorne out of the war, because he plans for Aegon to marry Arianne down the line and wants a fresh, unblemished Dornish army at his back?

That could explain Varys's motives without the need for Varys to be scheming with Doran.

There's no way Varys could have known Tyrion would murder Tywin. Too many things had to line up: Tywin being in his chambers, Tyrion wanting to murder his father (for reasons Varys wouldn't have known about), Jaime forcing Varys to release Tyrion, Tyrion recognising the tiles or whatever it was that made him realise where that secret passage went...

Tywin's murder was a happy accident. I'm sure Varys realised, once Tyrion became insistent that he wanted to climb that ladder, that it probably wasn't for a tearful goodbye, and was glad to let whatever was going to happen, happen: Tywin like's an enemy Queen, and Tyrion's only a Rook to Varys, so it's worth the sacrifice. But he couldn't have prearranged it.

I don't think Varys even gave enough of a shit to save Tyrion at all. Remember that Jaime forced him to. But through luck, wit and foresight Varys was able to turn the situation to his advantage: he can make use of Tyrion in Essos; Tyrion seems to be about to kill his father, which is the sort of thing that Varys was going to have to do sooner or later anyway; the only downside is that Varys will be rumbled as a traitor, but he can counter that: commence Operation Hidey Longtime!

Some of the events in this narrative are just supposed to be coincidences, I think. But I am foursquare behind the poisoned Tywin theory, and I do like the idea that Oberyn was anticipating a trial by combat and wanted the Lannisters to feel the sting of their enemies getting away with murder. Revenge is a dish best served cold, they say, and that one is positively freezing. Derp.

In hindsight, Tyrion made quite a large error by giving the Dornish a hostage. And there lies some of the genius of Doran: it's been so long that people have started to let their guard down, to think that the Dornish couldn't still be mad for vengeance after all these years. Again: best served cold.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

There's no way Varys could have known Tyrion would murder Tywin. Too many things had to line up: Tywin being in his chambers, Tyrion wanting to murder his father (for reasons Varys wouldn't have known about), Jaime forcing Varys to release Tyrion, Tyrion recognising the tiles or whatever it was that made him realise where that secret passage went...

Tywin's murder was a happy accident. I'm sure Varys realised, once Tyrion became insistent that he wanted to climb that ladder, that it probably wasn't for a tearful goodbye, and was glad to let whatever was going to happen, happen: Tywin like's an enemy Queen, and Tyrion's only a Rook to Varys, so it's worth the sacrifice. But he couldn't have prearranged it.

I don't think Varys even gave enough of a shit to save Tyrion at all. Remember that Jaime forced him to. But through luck, wit and foresight Varys was able to turn the situation to his advantage: he can make use of Tyrion in Essos; Tyrion seems to be about to kill his father, which is the sort of thing that Varys was going to have to do sooner or later anyway; the only downside is that Varys will be rumbled as a traitor, but he can counter that: commence Operation Hidey Longtime!

Good points, though I will say Varys seems to have a knack for making people think things are their own ideas....

[I S**t Gold]

There's no way Varys could have known Tyrion would murder Tywin. Too many things had to line up: Tywin being in his chambers, Tyrion wanting to murder his father (for reasons Varys wouldn't have known about), Jaime forcing Varys to release Tyrion, Tyrion recognising the tiles or whatever it was that made him realise where that secret passage went...

Tywin's murder was a happy accident. I'm sure Varys realised, once Tyrion became insistent that he wanted to climb that ladder, that it probably wasn't for a tearful goodbye, and was glad to let whatever was going to happen, happen: Tywin like's an enemy Queen, and Tyrion's only a Rook to Varys, so it's worth the sacrifice. But he couldn't have prearranged it.

I don't think Varys even gave enough of a shit to save Tyrion at all. Remember that Jaime forced him to. But through luck, wit and foresight Varys was able to turn the situation to his advantage: he can make use of Tyrion in Essos; Tyrion seems to be about to kill his father, which is the sort of thing that Varys was going to have to do sooner or later anyway; the only downside is that Varys will be rumbled as a traitor, but he can counter that: commence Operation Hidey Longtime!

Some of the events in this narrative are just supposed to be coincidences, I think. But I am foursquare behind the poisoned Tywin theory, and I do like the idea that Oberyn was anticipating a trial by combat and wanted the Lannisters to feel the sting of their enemies getting away with murder. Revenge is a dish best served cold, they say, and that one is positively freezing. Derp.

In hindsight, Tyrion made quite a large error by giving the Dornish a hostage. And there lies some of the genius of Doran: it's been so long that people have started to let their guard down, to think that the Dornish couldn't still be mad for vengeance after all these years. Again: best served cold.

Varys was aware that Oberyn, Tywin and Mace were supping together earlier that evening, perhaps he had eyes on Tywin? He doesn't need to check with his little birds to answer that question so presumably he's keeping a close eye on one if not all of the trio.

Varys was well aware of Shae and he has eyes all over Kings Landing. I even think that Varys might have conceivably planted Shae there to guarantee Tyrion would kill Tywin. I think the presence of Shae is odd considering Tywin's attitudes towards prostitutes and also the fact that if I had been poisoned and was noisily emptying my bowels, that would not put me personally in the mood for love. Varys was keeping her safe which means that Shae would be at his mercy. If he tells her to go to the room who is Shae to argue? This would mean that essentially Tyrion has been turned against the only two women who ever loved them and only discovered this when it was too late to 'bring them back' if you remember what happened to his first love. Probably going a little crackpot there, but what the hell.

Anyway I do think Varys could have found out about the plot, through colluding with Doran or otherwise, and I agree with TowerofJoy also. Doran does play the long game really well in my opinion.

[Clariana]

@ISG

I think this is a great theory that brings many things together. I would say that whereas the Starks have endurance, the Lannisters the ability to wield power, the Tyrells money, Sunspear’s strength is knowing how to foster diversity. Thus we have Doran and Oberyn two brothers who could not be more different in personality but who love and respect each other and who learn to convert those differences into a strength and utilise each other’s skills to obtain a shared objective.

I think the key to Doran’s policy is hedging, his aim is to have the widest spread on the table in order to boost his chances of success. So whereas I disagree that his aim in sending Quent on the quest was specifically for Quent to fail, Doran did realise there was a very high chance that he would but even should that prove to be the case, he had back-up in the form of Arianne and Tristayne. It was a calculated risk. Should Quent fail, a loss but by no means a fatal one, should he succeed, a triumph, should he get even half way (say he had survived his journey but not secured Dany’s hand) then that still would have been a considerable success, and the skill and knowledge Quent would have gained could be easily directed elsewhere. Arianne is much the same, Doran is challenging her, taking her out of her comfort zone because he hopes it will enhance her survivor skills, should she not survive, Dorn still has fallback.

Oberyn has done much the same with the sand snakes, he ensured that each of them was as different from the others as they could possibly be in order that Sunspear have a wide pool of talent and skill sets to draw upon but like their father and their uncle they are bound, by love, as one.

I was one of the early subscribers to the Oberyn poisoned Tywin theory so I am with you there. This may be a little out there but I simply found it too much of a coincidence that there were two notorious poisoners in KL at the time of Tywin’s death, Oberyn and QoT. I know Sunspear and the Martell’s are wary of each other but “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” may well have applied and it would have availed the Tyrell’s interests very little to poison Joffrey while Tywin was still around. Perhaps they called a temporary truce and agreed to divvy up the poisonings?

As for Sarella/Alleras, I’m pretty sure she’s in Old Town to learn how to kill dragons… Just as back up, you see…

[I S**t Gold]

Snip.

That's a really nice summary, I enjoyed reading it. What I meant with Quent was that even though his marriage proposal was rejected the plan worked essentially, because now Dorne is in Dany's good books.

The Tyrell's are s family I would love to link to the Dornish. The Tyrell's feud with Dorne is over Oberyn crippling Willas by accident. Willas himself bears no grudge.

The Tyrell's seem to be making similar moves and we'll see how that plays out. If you think of Olenna as the Viper, maybe Mace is their Doran? Mace was in the room when Oberyn poisoned Tywin, so if they are truly mortal enemies you'd think that might be a good time for Oberyn to go double-or-quits.

The idea that the Martells, the Tyrells, Illyrio, Varys, and maybe even the Sealord of Braavos (by extension the Iron Bank?) might all be working together to make sure the Lannisters are boned is probably too good to be true, but there's no evidence against it damn it. I will say of all Doran's potential allies I kind of find the Tyrell's the least likely, but when you point out the synergies it's really interesting to me.

The Sarella reasoning sounds good too. I reckon whether there's a weapon, or another horn, or a rare book, Oberyn saw something when he was at the Citadel getting the four links of his chain. I can't think of anything it would be but dragons.

[chrisdaw]

Aside from the coincidental synergy in their manoeuvring I agree with you, though I haven't given up on linking Dorne and Illyrio/Varys. I mistakenly thought they were both involved with the marriage pact.

I must say I am very interested in your take on Oberyn. I agree that Doran and Oberyn waited for a time that was right to strike, that's part of what makes the plan so interesting for me.

The idea that Oberyn wanted to be tried made my jaw drop to be honest. From their POV definitely it makes sense. Obviously we know Jaime wouldn't have defended Cersei, but Dorne wouldn't. Does that mean you think Oberyn defending Tyrion was a little bit of initiative? A chance to get Gregor and Jaime, as a two for one deal?

Also where does the Tyrion factor fit in? Coincidence?

I'm not sure I can get with the idea they wanted it to go to trial and be public, but I really like your reasoning and I really like the idea. I guess I don't see how that's better than just doing it all in secret and getting away with it clean. That said, it's a really interesting take on the whole thing for me. It would be very poetic.

Yes I believe Tyrion was coincidence and Oberyn therefor took the initiative. Oberyn says it to Tyrion, had Tyrion not been there to be accused Oberyn would have been the one blamed, and I believe that was actually the plan, to be blamed at some point for one of his murders. Oberyn then stepped in to defend Tyrion as the position is essentially the same as what he had planned.

The blame for what exactly is the question. I believe it was always the plan to murder Tywin and that was what he and Doran had agreed to. I think he altered his plan to include Joff when he realises what Joff is. I don't think Doran would consent to murdering an innocent child and I don't believe Oberyn would act in this without Doran's consent, but having been in KL a while Oberyn comes to the conclusion that Joff is very much deserving of death. This realisation is evident in his conversation with Tyrion at the wedding, and I think it's possible Oberyn planned to poison Joff or did poison Joff.

The fact he used a slow working poison on Tywin strongly suggests there was more work for Oberyn to do while Tywin slowly withered away. Eventually it'd become apparent that Tywin had been poisoned and then Oberyn would be accused and get his trial but not so soon as Tyrion was put on trial. Given this it's possible the Sandsnakes Doran has sent to KL may finish what Oberyn was to do in the first place.

I don't think Oberyn or Doran could have put together a plan that would allow them to murder Tywin and get away with it clean, they couldn't really have known that Tyrion was so hated that he'd get accused. I don't think they had any scope to plan to murder Tywin and get away with Oberyn not being accused, and so that's why Myrcella was so important, she ensures Oberyn gets a trial at least. Also the trial would allow Oberyn to not only kill Jaime but defeat him in single combat, Jaime's prowess in combat is of considerable renown and a source of pride for the Lannisters, defeating him pulls the name down.

Also so long as we're reaching for Doran's true plans, the thought had occurred to me that Oberyn's and Willas's friendship was more than merely an understanding between gentlemen, and that there was some political manoeuvring happening there between supposed enemies. Oberyn says he had written correspondence with Willas regarding "horse flesh", the implication is that it is reference to quality horse breeding. Perhaps though it's a hidden reference to the Dothraki, Doran says he shared his plans with Oberyn, and perhaps Oberyn shared some of those plans with Willas for reasons we can only speculate.

[jarl the climber]

Yes I believe Tyrion was coincidence and Oberyn therefor took the initiative. Oberyn says it to Tyrion, had Tyrion not been there to be accused Oberyn would have been the one blamed, and I believe that was actually the plan, to be blamed at some point for one of his murders. Oberyn then stepped in to defend Tyrion as the position is essentially the same as what he had planned.

The blame for what exactly is the question. I believe it was always the plan to murder Tywin and that was what he and Doran had agreed to. I think he altered his plan to include Joff when he realises what Joff is. I don't think Doran would consent to murdering an innocent child and I don't believe Oberyn would act in this without Doran's consent, but having been in KL a while Oberyn comes to the conclusion that Joff is very much deserving of death. This realisation is evident in his conversation with Tyrion at the wedding, and I think it's possible Oberyn planned to poison Joff or did poison Joff.

The fact he used a slow working poison on Tywin strongly suggests there was more work for Oberyn to do while Tywin slowly withered away. Eventually it'd become apparent that Tywin had been poisoned and then Oberyn would be accused and get his trial but not so soon as Tyrion was put on trial. Given this it's possible the Sandsnakes Doran has sent to KL may finish what Oberyn was to do in the first place.

I don't think Oberyn or Doran could have put together a plan that would allow them to murder Tywin and get away with it clean, they couldn't really have known that Tyrion was so hated that he'd get accused. I don't think they had any scope to plan to murder Tywin and get away with Oberyn not being accused, and so that's why Myrcella was so important, she ensures Oberyn gets a trial at least. Also the trial would allow Oberyn to not only kill Jaime but defeat him in single combat, Jaime's prowess in combat is of considerable renown and a source of pride for the Lannisters, defeating him pulls the name down.

I'm not sure, while its true that Oberyn thought poorly of Joffrey he might have considered it better to keep Joff where he was and have him married to Margery. Having Loras kill Joff for mistreating Marge would have been favorable outcome for the Martells. Considering Tywins age and the arduos campaign he had just fought, his death by a stomach disorder might have seemed natural. Jaimies disability would have made a duel between him and the Viper unlikely. I do not know if Obeyn poisoned Tywin or not. Its not impossible and he might have had the oppurtunity but I can not go any further with that theory.

[I S**t Gold]

The blame for what exactly is the question. I believe it was always the plan to murder Tywin and that was what he and Doran had agreed to. I think he altered his plan to include Joff when he realises what Joff is. I don't think Doran would consent to murdering an innocent child and I don't believe Oberyn would act in this without Doran's consent, but having been in KL a while Oberyn comes to the conclusion that Joff is very much deserving of death. This realisation is evident in his conversation with Tyrion at the wedding, and I think it's possible Oberyn planned to poison Joff or did poison Joff.

The fact he used a slow working poison on Tywin strongly suggests there was more work for Oberyn to do while Tywin slowly withered away. Eventually it'd become apparent that Tywin had been poisoned and then Oberyn would be accused and get his trial but not so soon as Tyrion was put on trial. Given this it's possible the Sandsnakes Doran has sent to KL may finish what Oberyn was to do in the first place.

I don't think Oberyn or Doran could have put together a plan that would allow them to murder Tywin and get away with it clean, they couldn't really have known that Tyrion was so hated that he'd get accused. I don't think they had any scope to plan to murder Tywin and get away with Oberyn not being accused, and so that's why Myrcella was so important, she ensures Oberyn gets a trial at least. Also the trial would allow Oberyn to not only kill Jaime but defeat him in single combat, Jaime's prowess in combat is of considerable renown and a source of pride for the Lannisters, defeating him pulls the name down.

Here's the thing though, he'd be handing himself over to the Lannister's as a murderer of one of them. Look at what they did to Ned. I mean regardless of what he asks for, he's just killed Daddy. I just don't see it being a sensible move. Not if you can get away with it.

I agree standing for Tyrion was opportunistic. I think if there was no trial, Gregor might very well have ended up dying on the bog somewhere and Oberyn would have done things stealthily.

I have big doubts about Oberyn - Joff. Mainly I don't understand why Littlefinger would explain to Sansa that the poison came from her hairnet, and imply that Olenna was responsible. I don't see what the advantage is of lying in that situation at all.

They could have known that they would have it covered up if I'm right about the collusion with Varys. There's just something too perfect about his involvement with Tyrion. 'Where's my Dad?' 'Oh we just happen to be going past his room, but please don't go in, I hope your prostitute girlfriend isn't waiting for your Dad to finish his poop!' I think the fact he could respond without checking and say that Mace, Oberyn and Tywin were dining together meant the master of whisperers had a close eye on proceedings, so it's not inconceivable he manipulated events to aid Dorne, who could be a potent ally for Aegon, whether Doran knew about it or not.

The theory is interesting, but I can't get with Oberyn giving himself up to the Lannisters or Joffrey being poisoned by the Viper.

Snip.

You're right in saying Loras killing Joffrey would be a favourable outcome, but I think the Tyrell's took matters into their own hands and Olenna was responsible, so it's the same result with a lot less fuss. Olenna seems to have anticipated the possibility and acted if that's the case, but I think she was just motivated by the desire to spare Margaery the ordeal of a Joffrey marriage when sweet little Tommen's available as a spare.

The thing that makes me think Tywin's poisoning would have been detected under normal circumstances is the presence at court of Pycelle. We know the Maester has expertise in poisons and given the presence of renowned poisoners and potential enemies like "cough" Oberyn in Kings Landing I think they'd check.

I think Oberyn might have gone the same route with Jaime as he did with Tywin, subtle. Tywin and the Mountain were obviously top of the list there.

[sertravisredbeard]

All of these implied scenarios are pretty thinly referenced but some of them could be true. It goes to explaining what Doran meant by telling Arianne that he'd been planning Tywin Lannister's downfall for so long. I always thought that statement was full of bravado. The only time I saw Dorne or Doran or any Martell doing anything remotely resembling contributing to Tywin's downfall was Oberyn showing up in King's Landing. That's 16 years without any other progress that any reader could discern.

If true, Doran's super Machiavellian planning deserves more credit than I've ever given him.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

I like this idea that Oberyn poisoned Joffrey; I always thought Littlefinger's story was a little fishy. He'd have just as much reason to lie as to tell the truth, he's certainly not averse to lying, and at this point his is the only explanation we've received. So all we've got is the word of a known liar and manipulator. My problems with it:

1. That the Tyrells would murder Joffrey now rather than see if they can get away without murdering him. Regicide is very risky, why not at least try to manage any difficulties that crop up during the marriage?

2. That Littlefinger would collude so directly with the Tyrells. For this plot to work, at some point he had to sit down in a room with Olenna Tyrell and say "Alright, so Sansa will have some poison in her hairnet, just plop it in Joffrey's drink, yeah?" They don't know each other; why would they trust each other?

3. That Littlefinger trusts Sansa with this information. Tywin's still alive at this point; the Lannisters aren't a spent force. If Sansa lets slip - and she might, she's a 14-yr old girl - then he's toast. He could also be trying to drive a wedge between Sansa and the Tyrells.

Of course, there's perfectly good explanations for all that, and I do think his version of events is probably the truth. I just wouldn't be totally surprised to find out he lied.

Also, Oberyn and Willas were friends? I must have missed that. What's the deal there?

[Clariana]

I like this idea that Oberyn poisoned Joffrey; I always thought Littlefinger's story was a little fishy. He'd have just as much reason to lie as to tell the truth, he's certainly not averse to lying, and at this point his is the only explanation we've received. So all we've got is the word of a known liar and manipulator. My problems with it:

1. That the Tyrells would murder Joffrey now rather than see if they can get away without murdering him. Regicide is very risky, why not at least try to manage any difficulties that crop up during the marriage?

2. That Littlefinger would collude so directly with the Tyrells. For this plot to work, at some point he had to sit down in a room with Olenna Tyrell and say "Alright, so Sansa will have some poison in her hairnet, just plop it in Joffrey's drink, yeah?" They don't know each other; why would they trust each other?

3. That Littlefinger trusts Sansa with this information. Tywin's still alive at this point; the Lannisters aren't a spent force. If Sansa lets slip - and she might, she's a 14-yr old girl - then he's toast. He could also be trying to drive a wedge between Sansa and the Tyrells.

Of course, there's perfectly good explanations for all that, and I do think his version of events is probably the truth. I just wouldn't be totally surprised to find out he lied.

Also, Oberyn and Willas were friends? I must have missed that. What's the deal there?

1. They would never get the chance to, Tywin would "manage" any difficulties.

2. Why would they need to go into such detail? The essence of the deal would be Joff dies and LF gets Sansa.

3. But aren't they in the vale when LF confides in Sansa? That's pretty far from KL. Are you suggesting that peeps are going to believe a 14 year old girl from a traitor's family over the word of a lord and former Master of Coin? In any event it would seem LF's main purpose is to keep Sansa dependent only on him and this disclosure assists that aim in two main ways. Firstly by allowing Sansa to realize just how instrumental she was in Joff's death (and make her feel a little guilty about it) and secondly by relaying to her that the Tyrells were simply using her, and therefore had no concern for her welfare, unlike Dada LF who is telling her all his secrets...

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

1. They would never get the chance to, Tywin would "manage" any difficulties.

2. Why would they need to go into such detail? The essence of the deal would be Joff dies and LF gets Sansa.

3. But aren't they in the vale when LF confides in Sansa? That's pretty far from KL. Are you suggesting that peeps are going to believe a 14 year old girl from a traitor's family over the word of a lord and former Master of Coin? In any event it would seem LF's main purpose is to keep Sansa dependent only on him and this disclosure assists that aim in two main ways. Firstly by allowing Sansa to realize just how instrumental she was in Joff's death (and make her feel a little guilty about it) and secondly by relaying to her that the Tyrells were simply using her, and therefore had no concern for her welfare, unlike Dada LF who is telling her all his secrets...

You're pretty well right, and I do think that Littlefinger's story is probably the truth. I just wouldn't be totally shocked to find out he lied. It wouldn't be the first time... and it wouldn't be the first twist Mr. Martin had pulled on us, either.

Just to clarify a couple of points when reasoning why Littlefinger's story is fishy:

2. They'd need to go into detail because Olenna would need to know to pluck the poison from Sansa's hairnet. Obviously they wouldn't have been as blunt about it as I said, but they'd still need to be clear enough with each other to understand that they were plotting a regicide together. Either one of them could have ratted the other out, and there was no great reason for them to trust each other. They didn't know each other.

3. They are in the Vale, but gossip travels easy enough and information is power. Peeps mightn't believe Sansa, but all it takes is for one careless whisper to somehow make it back to Tywin Lannister, and Littlefinger could find himself in the soup. He has the Vale backing him at that point, but he might not be able to rely on them if Tywin is accusing him of regicide. Although, he's taken steps to better ensure their reliability by marrying Lysa. Perhaps at this point in the story he considers it an acceptable risk? The Lannisters are dependent on the Tyrells for the time being, and Littlefinger feels safe enough in the Vale that, even if Sansa did let the cat out of the bag, the chances they will do anything about it are slim. He also has reason to believe Sansa will keep quiet: she's managed to keep her meetings with Ser Dontos a secret for months, and she's now terrified that she will face punishment herself. She knows she's innocent, but why would the Lannisters believe her?

Quoth:

In any event it would seem LF's main purpose is to keep Sansa dependent only on him and this disclosure assists that aim in two main ways. Firstly by allowing Sansa to realize just how instrumental she was in Joff's death (and make her feel a little guilty about it) and secondly by relaying to her that the Tyrells were simply using her, and therefore had no concern for her welfare, unlike Dada LF who is telling her all his secrets...

I think you're right on both counts. Earlier I said that Littlefinger could have just been trying to drive a wedge between Sansa and the Tyrells, but he has just as much reason to do that if his story's true as if it's not.

It's tempting, when going through these books with a fine-toothed comb, to look for evidence of deviousness and conspiracy as the key to all the series's mysteries. I'm as guilty of that as anyone. But it's not all about plot: sometimes it's about character. If Littlefinger's story to Sansa is true - which it probably is - then I suppose it follows that his telling her is motivated less or as much by the needs of his schemes as by his feelings towards Sansa. He needs her dependent on him so that he can utilise her in his plots, true: but he also has other, even less honourable intentions towards her. I wonder whether a big reason he lets her in on his plans is a simple need to boast; to impress her with his cleverness so that she'll be awed and a little scared by him. He spends his time in the Vale reinforcing this idea: he's devious and clever; he's, in his way, a strong man, and he's able to protect her from the evil that will surely befall her if she left his side. And then he kisses her, planting a different view of him in her mind... I suppose it's to be expected that a brothel-owner would pick up a bit of pimpology. I shudder to think what's coming up for Sansa in TWOW.

Apologies for going off-topic