DORAN'S LAW - The Grass That Hides The Viper

[TalalOfDorne]

Nice thread, even if I disagree with some of it. Such an under rated player the Prince of Dorne is. I never really understood the argument that "He put Quentyn in danger!". Yes, there was a risk, but even the most cautious person has to take a risk to move somewhere. And it turns out Quent did a great job getting there. And its not like the Martells are the ONLY house that lost someone. Almost every one of the great houses suffered, and yet the Martells are the ones singled out.

Im still skeptical about who ratted out Arianne. I think that the fact that he changed his mind about sending her to Tyrosh could be considered a mistake, though a mistake he did so his wife wouldnt commit suicide I guess, so as much as I hate the fact that it happened, its a little understandable.

Most people here just like to hate on a character for the fact that he doesnt do anything " interesting", and dont realize that in his position theres not much he can do.

And Tywin hates on everybody. In fact he should be hating himself since he also has his fair share of idiotic mistakes IMO.

[I S**t Gold]

Snip.

Thanks mate! Honestly the reason I settled on Trystane is mainly the application of 'Doran's Law'. Quentyn and Arianne are the kids who are very prominent, so it can't be them. I wonder a little about why Trys was selected as Myrcella's bride. Maybe it was because Trys was the only one on offer. My hunch is that convincing Cersei would be tricky enough, and maybe you could at least sell Trys and Myrcella as a cute couple. No better idea than that though, you raise an interesting question there

It might help to have a read of this.

http://branvras.free.fr/HuisClos/Princes.html

Not that I always agree with his overall conclusions,but Bran Vas is always worth reading for the detail and pattern recognition.It might help with you're theory.

Thank you! I haven't had time to sink into that yet, but it looks really in-depth and interesting. I will be trawling through that later.

And Tywin hates on everybody. In fact he should be hating himself since he also has his fair share of idiotic mistakes IMO.

Thanks. The thought does occur to me that if he had been able to send Arianne away she might well have ended up being groomed as his heir. Of course she might still end up being his heir, but only if I'm wrong, which is of course impossible! Or not. Heh.

That little quote from Tywin stuck out to me because it seems as nice as Tywin gets. It's also a lovely description of how I see Doran's management style. Thanks for the feedback.

[King Tam Stark]

I have to apologize. Your directions were spot on, but it looks like it's a lot more difficult to go back and spoiler stuff as an edit. When I use the spoiler code on already typed text it won't let me click OK. I am genuinely puzzled here.

True, a lot do, but also a lot don't. It doesn't seem to be a very Northern way of doing things, the likes of Dany and Aegon don't seem to go into subterfuge.

I'm just saying that to me, it seems as though Doran has an efficient system. Obviously though, there's a debate to be had over that, we don't have much to go on.

Sorry, didn't mean anything by that other than I had already posted my reasons for believing the Sand Snakes are loyal. I appreciate they aren't conclusive, they're suspicions, it's just I really don't have any more to offer than that, but those are the reasons I think it.

I'm not a woman though, but that made me chuckle.

You're right about the Myrcella thing. I can't be sure it wasn't an unintended product of trusting Darkstar, or tbf that Darkstar was the mole. However I would say that I don't think he intends for the Lannisters to find out. This is why he 'cooperates' with Balon in the search for Darkstar and sends a Sand Snake along for the ride. I mean that has to mean bye bye Balon.

There's definitely a lot of holes in pretty much everything, especially with the stuff that seems to be directly contradicted in the text. I appreciate people pointing them out. I'm not an ASOIAF expert, but I did get very into this theory for the theory's sake.

I started out with the assumption that 'Doran Is Awesome' and went to try to find a possible explanation for every one of his weirder-seeming moves. I will admit that this is going to lend itself to quite skewed conclusions. The appeal for me was that they were quite interesting conclusions. When I first read the Dorne chapters, I could hardly see the point of them, so it was quite a turnaround to get to this point. There's no pride thrown in with the series, but I'm enjoying trying to defend it as a mental exercise, if nothing else. Thanks for the responses mate.

your welcome

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

It was Oberyn and Darry who signed the marriage deal between Viserys and Arrianne and it was witnessed by the Sealord of Bravos. Illryio had nothing to do with it.

Off-topic, but does this mean that the Sealord of Braavos is part of things somehow? Or does he routinely bear witness to conspiracies to overthrow foreign powers, and then keep it a secret for 20 years, never trying to spin the knowledge to his advantage or use it to advance his own foreign policy goals?

His voice broke when he said that. "Where are the dragons?" he asked. "Where is Daenerys?" and Arianne knew that he was really saying, "Where is my son?"

Made me tear up a little :crying:

Awwww

IIRC, there was a thread on here about who Varys was thinking of when he told Ned that Littlefinger was only the second-most dangerous man in the 7 kingdoms, and a lot of people speculated it was Doran.

Darkstar, obviously. He is the night, can't get much scarier than that.

Myrcella getting injured kind of reminds me of Jaime being maimed, and there was a bit of reasoning in the book about what the Goat's motivations there were.. maybe a foreshadowing of the Myrcella situation?

I'm trying to puzzle this out but I'm having trouble remembering exactly what Hoat hoped to accomplish beyond driving a wedge between Bolton and Tywin. Was it that he thought that Bolton would have to take ownership of the maiming and thus shield Hoat?

So... what, having ratted out Arianne's scheme, Darkstar is now expendable , but if he slices up Myrcella then he forces Doran to... what? I don't get it.

Thinking about it, I suppose it's far more likely that Darkstar is, for reasons not yet clear, trying to start war between Dorne and the Iron Throne. Possible reasons include:

- a Sand Snake-esque thirst for vengeance (assuming the OP's ideas are wrong)

- he's working for someone for whom chaos is a desirable state of affairs, e.g. Varys, Littlefinger

- a desire to oust Doran as Prince of Dorne

- shits and giggles

Or maybe he just really hates Myrcella.

[Ser Underline]

No mate, my bad, that was me misreading your post. It sounds like you and I are completely in agreement on the answer to the Darkstar riddle. There's just so many things that don't make sense otherwise, for me at least. I like the way you think Ser Underline, cheers.

Liked your Doran's law theory on first read, so keep it up! :D

It might help to have a read of this.

http://branvras.free...os/Princes.html

Not that I always agree with his overall conclusions,but Bran Vas is always worth reading for the detail and pattern recognition.It might help with you're theory.

Ooh, missed that one, currently breaking my head with the Huis Clos immense details. thanks for the link!

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Firstly thank you. This is my first topic, and now someone has used the word 'crackpot alert' I honestly feel like I've arrived.

I addressed the Tywin thing higher up.

RE - Arianne. Doran said she was his heir, the same way he wrote a letter to Quentyn saying she was his heir. You are right in that she has a claim. Samwell Tarly had a claim to the Tarly estate. Theon Greyjoy had a claim with the Ironborn. However for differing reasons, their respective parents decided they didn't trust them with the realm so they took steps to make sure it never happened. I believe Doran puts Dorne above his interests in the same way and that he is markedly more subtle about it. If the goal is the Iron Throne maybe he could tell her Dornish Law doesn't apply? If not, then he'll have to be more creative.

There are exactly three ways to keep Arianne from becoming ruling princess of Dorne:

• marry her upwards (Viserys)
  
• murder her
  
• fight a civil war against her (and end up losing because 90% of Dorne sides with her)
  

Tarly was open for the murder option, Balon open for the civil war (and he had better chances).

The Trystane-Myrcella marriage isn't going to happen tomorrow, but what if there was no more Cersei and no more Tommen? Then there's no blood feud, and the marriage puts Dorne in a good position. We have no evidence Dorne are planning to take out Cersei and Tommen, but we do know there's two Sand Snakes awfully close to the action. What happened the last time a Sand Snake entered Kings Landing?

Then there is still a blood feud. The Dornish want to exterminate Tywin's line root and stem.

Illyrio has had dealings with Dorne, he said so to Tyrion. In work so I can't pinpoint the text but essentially I think there was a marriage contract (between Viserys and Arianne?), or at any rate some event where Illyrio and Dorne signed the same document. I can say with much more certainty we get this information told to Tyrion by Illyrio when Tyrion is a guest in his house.

Illyrio has no idea at all about the marriage contract between Viserys and Arianne. Illyrio and Dorne never signed the same document. The only statement by Illyrio in the Tyrion chapters regarding Dorne is the question whether Tyrion wants to go to Dorne to crown Myrcella queen and pit her against Tommen.

.

I never said Doran deliberately sacrificed his family. With Quentyn I don't believe he planned for Quent to meet the dragon, I just doubt he was upset when that happened. If he'd cared about Quent he could have helped him in two ways with fatherly advice he doesn't put forward. Firstly Doran went a long way to woo his own bride, successfully I might add. Then he clearly has access to information on dragons, but he doesn't make it available to Quentyn because that would be making it available to the Yronwoods too. Either of those things could have saved Quent, but that doesn't matter to Doran. All that matters is that Quent gets to Dany and offers her his hand in marriage.

Doran outfitted Quentyn with a maester, a bunch of friends, some of them with a lot of experience in wooing women. The maester died mid-voyage. So did half the company.

There's a great Selmy quote talking to Quentyn. 'Your father keeps his secrets well. Too well I fear.' That to me might be a bit of foreshadowing. I don't think he plans to sacrifice Arianne, I think he's probably quite fond of her for the simple reason he watched her grow up. Instead I believe he is manoeuvring to deny her her birthright. I'm not sure I follow when you say he sacrificed a good grip on Dorne. The whole point of what I'm saying is that everything Doran does tightens his grip on Dorne.

Doran experiences a mob attacking himself every time he leaves his keep because he kisses Lannister ass. Sunspear is tinder waiting for the spark and the countryside not far behind.

I wish I had a conclusive answer for this, but I think it can be explained by the fact that for a long while there was no strategic advantage to pressing ahead with those plans. Viserys was the beggar king, so let Dany marry the Dothraki guy, bring them onside. Now when the dragons come, that all changes. Suddenly there's a big threat to Dorne which is just badly in the way if she's headed to Westeros. Dany did reject Quentyn, but the only thing that gave her pause was that she remembered being told as a child that Dorne were her friends. She didn't reject Dorne, she rejected Quent.

I don't blame Dany for Quent's death, I don't blame Doran. I'm saying that Quentyn dying didn't really matter in terms of Doran's plan.

Doran had no idea of the Dothraki marriage before it happened. He still has no idea that Varys supports them or that Illyrio is more than a merchant who housed them for a bit of time.

I did cover this in the OP, but it's dead long, so I forgive you. When the Sand Snakes are being openly disrespectful to Doran, we always see it from Arianne's POV. Personally I think the Sand Snakes are absolutely onside and loyal, and that the comments are purely for Arianne's benefit. Why? Doran doesn't trust her. She had a relationship with Arys, who is sworn to the 'enemy'. Who knows what kind of shit she told him, who knows what kind of shit she might tell other people. Not even to fuck Doran up, just because she has a habit of running her mouth off. If she spreads disinformation that is fucking fantastic, if she spreads the truth then not so much.

It isn't Arianne's PoV, it is always Areoh Hotah's.

My feeling is there's a reason there are two POV's in Dorne. I could see Doran letting his guard down in Hotah's POV's but never in Arianne's. She's the one he's getting out of the way in my opinion.

See above. If he wants to fool someone with the Sand Snake, he fools the wrong one.

[I S**t Gold]

Snip.

I don't feel properly qualified to talk about the Sealord, because of how little we know about him. That said if he was part of the circle, I doubt he got invited at random, there must be some trust there no? Does anyone know how much influence the Sealord exerts over the Iron Bank? I'm suddenly thinking of Tycho and I'm glad you brought that up. In any case he seems like a powerful friend to have, but I'm pretty sure he'll be working with Braavos in mind rather than Dorne.

I definitely think Darkstar is the mole. Definitely. However the Myrcella thing is puzzling me more and more. I still think if Darkstar really hated Myrcella, she'd be dead, but less and less sure about this.

Then there is still a blood feud. The Dornish want to exterminate Tywin's line root and stem.

Illyrio has no idea at all about the marriage contract between Viserys and Arianne. Illyrio and Dorne never signed the same document. The only statement by Illyrio in the Tyrion chapters regarding Dorne is the question whether Tyrion wants to go to Dorne to crown Myrcella queen and pit her against Tommen.

Doran outfitted Quentyn with a maester, a bunch of friends, some of them with a lot of experience in wooing women. The maester died mid-voyage. So did half the company.

Doran experiences a mob attacking himself every time he leaves his keep because he kisses Lannister ass. Sunspear is tinder waiting for the spark and the countryside not far behind.

Doran had no idea of the Dothraki marriage before it happened. He still has no idea that Varys supports them or that Illyrio is more than a merchant who housed them for a bit of time.

It isn't Arianne's PoV, it is always Areoh Hotah's.

See above. If he wants to fool someone with the Sand Snake, he fools the wrong one.

Firstly I would like to say damn you, in the nicest possible way, but still, damn you. You make points that are far too good to argue with and appear to have rather ripped this to shreds.

On your first point I'm not sure I agree with you entirely. Would Arianne marrying Aegon not be marrying her upwards? (That's a genuine question, not trying to score points). Where do you get the 90% of Dorne from? (Again, genuine question). I felt, and still do, that Doran is not as weak in Dorne as he appears. However I also think he's fond of Arianne and wouldn't try and harm her, otherwise why make the effort to bring her onside? My original theory was that Dorne would break with the tradition of naming female heirs, that it would be a bloodless political manoeuvre of some kind. I wasn't saying that he's exactly the same as Balon or Tarly, just that he might put the good of the realm over his love for his children. I still do sort of think that, to be honest, but this is possibly inconsequential when you factor in the other points you make.

Again, on the blood feud I feel that there's a little bit of room for me to defend myself. After Cersei and Tommen are gone the blood feud may remain, but none of the remaining Lannisters would represent a significant threat would they? The likes of Joanna and Lancel don't seem to have anywhere near as much sway as Tywin did. But again, this is kind of a moot point.

The Illyrio thing is the killer. Just been poring through the books and you're dead right. The Illyrio thing, there's just no evidence for that at all.

Doran's 'help' was more of a hindrance though wasn't it? Gerris being a ladies man only made poor little froggy look even worse in comparison when Dany was checking them out. That dragon book, some direct advice from the old man, I do think he would have made those things available for Quent if he was really rooting for him.

The Areo Hotah POV thing is kind of the final nail in the coffin though. I'm still not prepared to admit that Doran is some tool who doesn't know what he's doing, he's made a lot of moves that are very good for Dorne, but my theory now has so many holes in it that swiss cheese is getting jealous.

Thanks for reading and responding though mate. If nothing else I do enjoy talking about Doran.

Out of interest, given that you clearly know the books a lot better than me, where do you stand on the guy?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Arianne marrying Aegon would indeed be marrying upwards. But as late as the last Dornish chapter, Dorne has no idea at all the Aegon exists. In between Viserys receiving his crown and JonCon sending a raven from Griffins Roost to Sunspear, there is no option to marry her upwards.

Discarding Dornish inheritance laws means that all reigning Ladies with brothers would be in danger - 50%. So would all reigning Lords who inherited from their mother, with uncles - 75%. Grandmother - 87.5%. I'll stop here. It applies to women being currently heirs as well. They will stand with Arianne to prevent a dangerous precedent.

Furthermore, even Doran himself inherited from his mother (not for the first time in Martell history) and has cousins. If Manfryd Martell or some first, second or third cousin else is descended from a male, he kicks the base of his own seat.

The blood feud is arguable as it's based mostly on the opinions of the Sand Snakes and Oberyn. But the streets of Sunspear already made a statement after Oberyn died. They will only tolerate so much. Still, Doran may pull through. It's arguable either way.

In my opinion, Doran simply waited to long. He was to cautious. Neat planning, but he let every chance for revenge slip through his fingers.

• letting Prince Viserys become the Beggar King instead of providing education, a court and other necessities through 10+ strawmen.
  
• not attacking the Lannisters when they were down. Allying with Renley? Lannister exterminated. Allying with Stannis? Lannister exterminated. Allying with Robb? Lannister exterminated. Instead, he even stabilized the Lannister regime. The risk was small, but he didn't commit.
  

By and large, he's like the poker player who folds and folds and folds waiting for the Royal Flush. He needn't to go all in, a small bet would suffice. But he folded time and again till he is out all his coin.

[I S**t Gold]

Now the 90% of Dorne standing together against Doran comment makes a lot more sense.

I would say we don't know why Doran abandoned Viserys, but I would definitely admit it seems strange. He may have reasons for it. Didn't they keep it secret from Viserys because he'd immediately head to Dorne and that would bring the Baratheon's down on Dorne? Maybe Doran felt the gain wasn't worth the risk.

I would argue Doran did attack the Lannisters when they were down, and in fact got Tywin. As for allying with Renley or Stannis, I can see what you're saying, but I still think Doran may have bigger designs than simply a vendetta against the Lannisters. I still think the Dornish end game may be the Iron Throne, and that Doran doesn't want to settle for being a mere bannerman, having a seat on the council. Also if Renly and Stannis get the credit for crushing Stannis that doesn't seem a very satisfactory way to end a blood feud. Obviously I subscribe to the Oberyn poisoning Tywin theory, so ultimately I believe Dorne did crush the Lannisters. Obviously I have a lot less proof of the Varys angle, but if that were true, you could argue that they took Tyrion out of the equation too, possibly the only man qualified to replace Tywin adequately, along with Kevan who Varys also took out. I'm not ready to completely give up on that yet, to be honest. I know there's no proof of any alliance, but there also isn't anything that specifically rules it out, and their goals do seem to coincide beautifully. Anyway, even if you only accept the Oberyn-Tywin thing, that alone is a massive blow to the Lannisters who were a joke before he came along and restored their honour. If you don't accept the Oberyn thing, then that's fair enough really, but I'm squarely in the Oberyn killed Tywin camp.

I like your analogy of Doran though. My feeling is that the truth is somewhere between my 'Doran is slightly better than the best ruler ever' point I was originally trying to make and your much more succinct description. I definitely think he folds a lot, I don't think he's out of coin.

Thanks for your feedback though.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

I think you've possibly hit on some of Doran's plans, but I'm not sure all of your theories here are on point. Darkstar as the mole is interesting, and could be true, though I think the answer to why he maimed Myrcella is not because Doran wanted him to, but because he has his own plans and schemes, but those two are not mutually exclusive. Let's say for a second that Darkstar really is Oberyn's son, raised to respect Doran and to do as he asks. In that situation, he's also just recently lost his father to one of Doran and Oberyn's plots. So he goes ahead with the plan and informs Doran on Arianne, but he does so selfishly, because it undermines Arianne, and ultimately, he tries to maim Myrcella in order to attempt to spark the war, and force the hand of Doran that his father didn't have the guts to do. I think that Darkstar was working with Oberyn and Doran, but when Oberyn died, things changed drastically, and perhaps he believes that he would make a better ruler than Doran, despite ratting out Arianne to Doran.

I think Doran planned on Quentyn either winning Dany's hand or at least letting Dany know that Dorne was behind her, but I don't think he foresaw Quentyn dying in the attempt, or saw him as "expendable", it's just that many of the resources he sent to help Quentyn did not make it there to do they job they were intended to do.

His original plan was to marry Arianne to Viserys, obviously. When Viserys died, he planned to marry Quentyn to Dany, and now it's to marry Arianne to Aegon.

I do like your ideas of the Sand Snakes secretly working with Doran despite appearing to despise him openly, and the gout thing is interesting.

[Martell Spy]

In regards to Viserys, he probaly had enough sources in Essos to tell him that Viserys was a madman. Nothing worth betting on.

In regards to allying with a king, there are no small bets to make. He can make moderate bets, by marrying a child off, which he has been doing. Or he can ally and call the spears, the large bet.

Once he makes the large bet and calls the spears, he is all in. And he's not fully aware of what is going on in the world. We know now for example if he had allied with Robb, he'd now be embroiled in a huge mess in the North...and White Walkers coming down on him. In fact any kind of victory he found by allying with a King might be later washed away by the White Walkers or other sorts of chaos such as LF's schemes or Dany's Dragons.

It seems a very dangerous time for Westeros and the perfect time to be such a careful and long term player as Doran. He still has the option open to call the spears. Also, they fight best defensively.

There's also the fact that the Lannisters seem skilled at destroying themselves. Giving them little pushes is pretty effective, rather than confronting them.

BTW, Darkstar says to Arianne that he wants to start war.

[Ser Underline]

There's also the fact that the Lannisters seem skilled at destroying themselves. Giving them little pushes is pretty effective, rather than confronting them.

BTW, Darkstar says to Arianne that he wants to start war.

Two good things. He has kept Dorne out of conflict even though he had good reason to fight the Lannisters. Wht did he get? Weakened Lannister family (Tywin, Kevan, Jaime, Cersei, Tyrion, all in messy positions), and his country more eager than ever to get their revenge.

Second: Darkie. He's working with Doran, he's the spy. He tell Arianne that he wants to start a war. He probably thinks in that hot headed -head- of his that Doran's ways are too slow, so he play his part and then takes matters into his own hands and has a go at Myrcella. This however brings out the question of no venom on his blade, but let's assign that as "human error".

[Martell Spy]

Oh, something else. If he attacks anywhere but up the Boneway by land, it's hugely messy logistics and communication wise. That also limits his options. In fact, if he had did what many readers would have liked and helped Robb, he might have lost half his army in a storm. This assumes he can even afford and get the ships needed to carry them. It's mentioned that Dorne is poor.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

Second: Darkie. He's working with Doran, he's the spy. He tell Arianne that he wants to start a war. He probably thinks in that hot headed -head- of his that Doran's ways are too slow, so he play his part and then takes matters into his own hands and has a go at Myrcella. This however brings out the question of no venom on his blade, but let's assign that as "human error".

Well, there's still the possibility that he didn't want to actually kill Myrcella (she's innocent after all), but wanted to provoke the Lannisters. Plus, if he's been working with Oberyn and Doran, and their long game really was to seat a Myrcella/Trystane combo on the IT, then he may want to keep that as an option, while he works to take control of Dorne from his "too slow" uncle Doran.

[I S**t Gold]

Snip.

Haha. Well I'm pretty much 100% sure some of my theories are off-base, that's pretty much been conclusively proven over the course of this thread, so we're in agreement there.

RE: Darkstar, I think you've actually hit on the answer I was looking for. If you wouldn't mind, I would appreciate an explanation as to why you think Darkstar might be Oberyn's son, but suddenly I start thinking about the 'more viper than Oberyn' quote in a different light. I like it. Even if he's not Oberyn's son, if he was working with Oberyn and Doran, you could definitely see why he'd respect Oberyn but not Doran and maybe that would be enough to motivate him to 'surprise' Doran in any case. That would mean when Doran calls him 'the most dangerous man in Dorne' he's only just realized how dangerous himself, which is kind of cool.

http://branvras.free...os/Princes.html

The link above is to a theory by Branvas regarding Quent, and it's a much better explanation that I gave about why I think the Quentyn thing is just off. He has an interesting theory, that seems plausible to me, that the real Quentyn might be off hiding with mummy while the 'fake' Quentyn makes the Yronwoods think they have someone important to Doran. Also all kinds of Blackfyre theories. I can't say it's all on the money - really not qualified to - but if nothing else it was an interesting read.

There's also quotes, like where Doran's wife asks 'what kind of father sends his son away' and Doran replies 'the princely sort' that certainly make my original Quentyn theory seem plausible to me. I could see the fake Quent being possible considering the Martells hate the Yronwoods. There's definitely something wrong with that whole play mate, I do see that as being a decoy designed to distract us from our true intentions.

I'm so happy with that Darkstar theory though mate, thank you!

Snip.

In fairness, Doran would have heard Viserys was in need of assistance while he was still in the house with the red door, it would become apparent after Darry died. So I'm not sure it's because of the beggar king thing, because he hadn't really become the beggar king yet. I'd say your explanation of why he didn't make any large bets is nearer the mark as an explanation for abandoning him.

If he can use Viserys in secret, he's useful. If he tries to make use of him publicly, he makes new enemies. One of the things linking all Doran's plans for me is he tries to make gains while accruing no losses.

Like you say, the outcome of that war was quite impossible to predict, and by allying with any of the kings you make an enemy of all the others. Far better to keep out of it and let them all chip away at each other.

The Lannisters seem pretty boned to me mate. I'm betting on Dorne finishing them off in a subtle way. Thanks mate.

This however brings out the question of no venom on his blade, but let's assign that as "human error".

I still think that with Darkstar knowing he's walking into a fake trap, in which there's no way he's getting harmed, then that might be a reason to not coat the blade in poison, just for a change. And maiming Myrcella would be enough to start a war, so maybe that explains the 'Darkstar fails to kill a little girl' headline too.

It's mentioned that Dorne is poor.

Again, from the Branvas 'Princes of Dorne' theory, the author makes a fantastic point. Quentyn promises Dany 50,000 spears. Now in almost any other scenario you could argue that Quent might lie, but if Dorne promises Dany 50,000 spears, and she gets there to find only 2,000, that has the opposite effect if he's trying to get Dany onside. He also compares that with the forces Robb managed to band together, and that numbered approximately 20,000, and that army did pretty good before they went for a Frey party. Dorne may be in pretty good shape.

Well, there's still the possibility that he didn't want to actually kill Myrcella (she's innocent after all), but wanted to provoke the Lannisters. Plus, if he's been working with Oberyn and Doran, and their long game really was to seat a Myrcella/Trystane combo on the IT, then he may want to keep that as an option, while he works to take control of Dorne from his "too slow" uncle Doran.

Yeah those seem to be the main possibilities there. Maiming accomplishes just as much as killing her for the purposes of provoking a conflict. Of course, she may genuinely have just flinched, and Darkstar ran off because Hotah and that might turn on him, knowing that wasn't part of the plan at all.

[Kasporio]

Poor Doran is a douche. he said he planned to rob Tywin of everything he had before let him die (a feast for crow)?

Well, 15 y for a revenge is a long-term scheme. We saw others schemers on long-term who saw they're plans foiled by unexpected events : Illyrio and Varys. In that plot, they were allied with Doran by the way. Their initial plot was to crown Viserys and marry him to Arianne, but unbeknowst to them (except Illyrio) Viserys was mad, rash and stupid. Unreliable.

Tywin said Doran was careful and indolent, no compliment here, he saw Doran, imo, like his own father, and he had a poor opinion about him.

About Quentyn, Doran genuinely cared about him, as he does about his whole family, and even Myrcella. He isn't devoid of empathy like Tywin or his own brother.

He sent Quentyn to ironwood because Oberyn poisened the Yronwood lord, and the letter Arianne read, in which he calls Quentyn his heir, its just because he intended to see her queen.

Like Eddard, his lack of ruthlessness and inability to act swiftly prevented him to get the upper hand. His last chance to get his revenge about the lannisters would be to join Aegon and Daenerys, but he had no part in the destruction of the lannisters might as it resulted mostly from random events or unconnected plots : Tyrion rightful (imo) murder of his father, Olenna's and baelish poisoning of Joff, Cersei's paranoia and stupidity leading to her stupid vendetta against Margaery.

Frankly, i hardly believe Doran should be feared, he's unpopular, too much cautious, this is why his plans backfired.

So even if lannisters are a shadow of their former selves, they still have the tyrells, and their might is unscathed. No way tyrell would ever ally martel.

[jarl the climber]

Off-topic, but does this mean that the Sealord of Braavos is part of things somehow? Or does he routinely bear witness to conspiracies to overthrow foreign powers, and then keep it a secret for 20 years, never trying to spin the knowledge to his advantage or use it to advance his own foreign policy goals?

I'm not sure if the signer is the current Sealord or not but Dany did relay to us that he did sign the agreement. Its been hinted to us that Bravos likes to stay nuetral in these sorts of things so I guess its a little odd but I do not see how it commits Bravos to anything. The best thing I can come up with is that it left some options open for Bravos in case Roberts rule faltered and imperiled their interests in Westeros.

@ I Shit Gold

I'll also say that as far as Ilryio knowing anything about this marriage its possible that he suspected that there might be such a contract. Tywin admits to Tyrion that Oberyn tried to raise Dorne for Viserys claim. Varys might have found out about Oberyns trip to Bravos and his meeting with Darry and suspected some sort of agreement had been reached but they probaly did not know for sure. Of course Doran wanted this agreement to make his daughter Queen and Illryio would have wanted it to secure Dornes support for Aegons claim. not sure how this would have played out if Viserys had stayed with Illryio and lived. Its also not clear to me what Doran knows or suspects about Illryio. He must know that Illryio arranged the marriage to Khal Drogo. If Viserys had gotten an army from them that would have met his conditions for marrying Arrianne to him. So I can understand your confusion. There does seem to be some synergy between the two plans

[I S**t Gold]

Snip

Heh. Well obviously we disagree he's a douche, but I'm open to being persuaded. I was definitely interested to read what you think, and there's some points you raise that I'm very glad you raised, but I would like to know more about why you think it.

I will definitely be your best friend in the world if you can provide me with any evidence that links Doran directly to Varys and Illyrio. I haven't given up on that link (although a previous poster pointed out the 'evidence' I gathered was based on information I'd gotten wrong - gutted) but I do think there's some evidence they may have mutual goals, and it's so much more interesting that way, even if we can't find any proof of that, there's not actually any evidence against it. More on that later.

RE - the Tywin quote, it is open to interpretation. I think Tywin might describe his own style of management in similar fashion.

A previous poster convinced me that Doran cared about Quent with a beautiful quote. I do not think he trusted him though. The Yronwoods and the Martells have a fractious history, they hold a grudge against them. I think Doran loves his kids, but his duty to Dorne outweighs his duty to his family, and there's proof in a way. 'What kind of father sends his son away?' 'The princely sort.' I've definitely reassessed the idea that Doran ordered Darkstar to maim Myrcella thanks to a previous poster who nailed the Darkstar thing in my opinion.

I would argue that Eddards failure to consider the consequences of every word and every action is exactly what got him killed and led to the apparent downfall of the Starks. In particular, he failed to consider that going to Cersei and voicing his suspicions would lead to his head being chopped off.

I'm of the opinion that Doran has been getting Dany and Aegon onside. That's explained in the OP.

The random nature of the Lannister's downfall is something we disagree with. I subscribe to the theory that Oberyn poisoned Tywin before Tyrion shot him, although I agree Tyrion was right to kill him. Tyrion was tricked by Varys into doing this. Pycelle is a poisons expert, but he probably doesn't examine Tywin if he's full of crossbow bolts. That's the motive for the cover up.

That might be because he's in cahoots with Dorne, it might not. So from my POV, I believe that Oberyn settled the vendetta against Tywin and the Mountain in one fell swoop, on Doran's orders, in a way that will never lead back to Dorne.

Finally I agree that the Tyrell's and the Dornish will never be friends. The crippling of Willas seems to have been taken personally by the Tyrells even though it was apparently accidental. However with Kevan and Tywin gone, who exactly has the Tyrell's? The Olenna-Joffrey thing proves that the Tyrell's have never been blindly loyal to the Lannisters. As you yourself say, Cersei launched a stupid vendetta against Margaery. There's no way they're blindly loyal to her. I think the Tyrell's are also manoeuvring to get Cersei out of the way, for their own reasons, specifically because without Cersei, Tommen is going to basically be their pawn. The Lannisters are basically done, there's no strategic advantage to the alliance. The Tyrell's do not give a toss about them, trust me.

On top of that, I've read a couple of theories that suggest the Tyrell's may have a weakness. A lot of their bannermen have traditionally been Targ loyalists, the Tarly's for example who tend to lead the vanguard of the Tyrell forces (a position of honour given to those who are a major asset).

Thanks for your response though.

Another reason might be the purpose of having the Sealord of Braavos was just because they needed a witness of great repute to make sure the Dornish and Viserys kept their sides of the bargain. A secret pact could otherwise be denied later, and so is basically worthless. The Sealord's neutrality would make him ideal.

RE - Dorne & Illyrio, the synergy is what keeps me coming back to it. Their complicity has not been disproved, but I've got a lot further away from being able to prove it.

Another bit of synergy... but you need to believe the Oberyn poisoned Tywin theory.

If Oberyn poisons Tywin, that's risky.

If Varys tricked Tyrion into killing Tywin, then essentially he's performing a cover up on Dorne's behalf.

If he isn't covering up for Dorne, then isn't this random thing happening a remarkable coincidence.

Then the Kevan Lannister death also coincides remarkably well with Dornish goals.

Hey maybe Doran is just about the luckiest guy in Westeros and it did all happen independently, maybe Varys has a grudge, or maybe we should just believe what Varys says. But I've not given up on that link yet.

There's a line by Illyrio talking to Tyrion, where he responds to Tyrion's idea of going to Dorne and Queening Myrcella by asking why he'd want to kill his niece. Tyrion says 'I said queen her, not kill her.' Illyrio says that Dorne alone is not enough. Doran seems to think this too. He's trying to get Aegon and Dany onside. There's a lot of synergy between the goals of Dorne and Illyrio/Varys, and I still feel like if they're not allied they really should be. Doran does know all about the Dany marriage to Drogo, and Arianne too. However they could have got that from other sources too.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

Haha. Well I'm pretty much 100% sure some of my theories are off-base, that's pretty much been conclusively proven over the course of this thread, so we're in agreement there.

RE: Darkstar, I think you've actually hit on the answer I was looking for. If you wouldn't mind, I would appreciate an explanation as to why you think Darkstar might be Oberyn's son, but suddenly I start thinking about the 'more viper than Oberyn' quote in a different light. I like it. Even if he's not Oberyn's son, if he was working with Oberyn and Doran, you could definitely see why he'd respect Oberyn but not Doran and maybe that would be enough to motivate him to 'surprise' Doran in any case. That would mean when Doran calls him 'the most dangerous man in Dorne' he's only just realized how dangerous himself, which is kind of cool.

It's simply a guess based on him being referred to as a viper, as poison, and as the most dangerous man in Dorne. It does kind of pull the whole thing together though :)

A lot of people have said Darkstar is too old to be Oberyn's son, but that's simply not true. Oberyn was born in 258, so he'd have been 41/42 when we meet Darkstar, who appears to be early 20's, and about the same age as the oldest Sand Snake.

[I S**t Gold]

Snip.

It's nice, I like it a lot. The 'more viper than Oberyn' quote does seem significant to me. It adds a little frisson to the idea of Darkstar going rogue also.