Beware the bite of the snakes

[Musashisamurai]

I think Sarella/ Alleras's the one to watch.... she's a crafty one, her

She's in oldtown. I see Sarella as taking out that FM in the Citadel eventually. Unless she forces the measters to make her grand maester...

[Jon of the Dead]

She's in oldtown. I see Sarella as taking out that FM in the Citadel eventually. Unless she forces the measters to make her grand maester...

Sarella could be the most useful sand snake in the end. If what Jaquen/Euron are looking for in the Citadel is what the maesters used to kill the dragons, then that would be very useful for Dorne in the Dance 2.0

[Northernmonkey]

I think Tyene must be in Kings Landing to try and motivate the Faith Militant to turn on the Lannisters and back Aegon. I think Tyene, Nym and the Faith Militant will probably take out Tommen fairly soon.

[Pod The Impaler]

I have a feeling, mostly just in the gut, that Tyene's going to be the one to get the most damage done.

I agree. She seems like the one to fear most.

I think Tyene must be in Kings Landing to try and motivate the Faith Militant to turn on the Lannisters and back Aegon. I think Tyene, Nym and the Faith Militant will probably take out Tommen fairly soon.

They may decide to kill the High Sparrow to touch off a war between the Lannisters and the Faith. Or some other sort of chaos-breeding act.

[SeanF]

I agree. She seems like the one to fear most.

act.

She's the most dangerous. She's a skilful poisoner, and a gifted liar. I think she'll convince the HS of her piety, and be chosen as one of Margaery's jurors. And I could see Varys' little birds feeding her information about Margaery's role in Joffrey's poisoning.

Alleras/Sarella seems a much nicer person than the other three.

[SeanF]

I agree. She seems like the one to fear most.

act.

She's the most dangerous. She's a skilful poisoner, and a gifted liar. I think she'll convince the HS of her piety, and be chosen as one of Margaery's jurors. And I could see Varys' little birds feeding her information about Margaery's role in Joffrey's poisoning.

Alleras/Sarella seems a much nicer person than the other three.

[Alhazred]

Alleras/Sarella seems a much nicer person than the other three.

Yes. But perhaps that merely makes her the most subtle. The other 3 are kinda obvious, making them less dangerous than they might be.

Aemon's warning to Sam could be taken as: Try to figure out the Sphynx's secrets; don't tell her your own secrets. But then, the first thing Sam does in Oldtown is spill his guts to the Sphynx (who seems nice). I'd say things are looking bad for Sam. He's about to be replaced by a faceless man.

But I don't know that Sarella's role in the narrative will have anything to do with revenge on Lannisters.

[Alhazred]

She's in oldtown. I see Sarella as taking out that FM in the Citadel eventually.

Why would she do that? She's apparently in league with him.

[Robin the Mighty]

It is possible that Darkstar may be the one to do the dirty deed, having been hired as Tommen's Dornish weaponsmaster (Cersei was planning to hire a Dornish weaponsmaster for Tommen in Feast). Of course, Darkstar is supposedly holed up in his stronghold, but that could easily be Doran feeding Swann misinformation.

Fixed it!

And Tyene as for revenge, but Sarella for the game

[Mithras]

Hotah said Lady Nym is more dangerous than Tyene, because she seems like a proper highborn lady.

[Veltigar]

Tyene and Nymeria will play an important part in the KL storyline. They'll arive and bring Myrcella back with them. They'll immediatley start plotting and try to make the rift between Cersei, Mace and the HS even bigger. I believe that their plotting, combined with that of Varys, LF and Cersei herself will eventually lead to the conviction of Margaery.

Mace will not take kindly to that and attack the Faith after Marg's conviction. There will be carnage and bloodshed in the streats of KL. Cersei will return to the Red Keep with her children and company, away from the fighting. That's where they'll fall into the trap of the Dornish. Lannister guards will clash with the Dornish soldiers and mercenaries. Lady Nym and Tyene will move in for the kill and try to get close to Cersei and her kids.

The snakes and some of their most trusted man will close in for the kill, only to be stopped by Ungregor. Tyene poisons the shit out of the silent giant, while Nym throws knives at him and the Dornish soldiers attack him with swords and other weapons. Ungregor kills the Dornish soldiers and then attacks the snakes. In a last ditch effort, both snakes whale on him and succeed in taking his helmet off, revealing the horror that lies underneath it to the world. Ungregor then kills them, but before Nym dies she throws a dagger over his shoulders and kills Tommen.

Obara will die in the fight against Darkstar.

Lady Lance will probably fall in love with Faegon, perhaps even starting a relationship with him. But after the news of Quentyn's death and the fall of Highgarden to Euron reaches them, Faegon sets her aside to marry Arianne and get the Dornish armies on his side. She'll eventually die trying to do something heroic (e.g. killing a dragon or killing a famous knight like Ser Barristan) in order to get Faegon back to her.

Sarella will have a great connection with Sam. She'll probably be impressed with his intelligence (I believe Sam will have forged several links in a very short amount of time) and they'll bond further when she finds Sam practising his archery (she'll probably teach him). Both will find Pate carious and they'll be wary of the pending Ironborn attack, even though others (Leo Tyrell) will laugh about the possibility.

Eventually, they'll discover that Pate is after the dragon book and that he's not what he claims to be. Then the Ironborn attack and Leyton Hightower tries to use a new weapon which goes horribly wrong. The inhabitants (Maesters and non-Maesters) will flee from the city. During the chaos, Pate tries to steal the book, but Sam and Sarella beat him to it. They leave the city and try to blend in with the refugees untill they reach Horn Hill. Shortly after their arrival, they find out that Randyll Tarly has revealed himself as a Blackfyre loyalist and that Faegon and Arianne are now married. Affraid of Pate they decide to use their connections (Sam to Randyll and Sarella to Arianne) and find shelter at the BF court.

They arrive shortly before Faegon takes KL and Dany lands in the Vale. Because of their family ties they are both welcomed at court. Sam starts pleading for the NW (untill he hears of Jon's stabbity stab incident) and quickly rises in rank amongst the Maesters, because of his connections to the most important BF loyalist. After taking KL, Faegon's troops head up north where they find out that Dany's troops have landed in the Vale and that the Lords of the Vale have declared for her. The first clashes between Faegon's troops and the Daenerys loyalists turn out to be disastrous after Dany throws her dragons into the fray.

That's when Sam and Sarella, still affraid for Pate and after hearing the dreadful stories about Daenerys (spread by Arianne of course) decide to hand the dragonslaying manuel over to Faegon, giving him a fighting chance against Dany's dragons.

[Clariana]

Tyene and Nymeria will play an important part in the KL storyline. They'll arive and bring Myrcella back with them. They'll immediatley start plotting and try to make the rift between Cersei, Mace and the HS even bigger. I believe that their plotting, combined with that of Varys, LF and Cersei herself will eventually lead to the conviction of Margaery.

Mace will not take kindly to that and attack the Faith after Marg's conviction. There will be carnage and bloodshed in the streats of KL. Cersei will return to the Red Keep with her children and company, away from the fighting. That's where they'll fall into the trap of the Dornish. Lannister guards will clash with the Dornish soldiers and mercenaries. Lady Nym and Tyene will move in for the kill and try to get close to Cersei and her kids.

The snakes and some of their most trusted man will close in for the kill, only to be stopped by Ungregor. Tyene poisons the shit out of the silent giant, while Nym throws knives at him and the Dornish soldiers attack him with swords and other weapons. Ungregor kills the Dornish soldiers and then attacks the snakes. In a last ditch effort, both snakes whale on him and succeed in taking his helmet off, revealing the horror that lies underneath it to the world. Ungregor then kills them, but before Nym dies she throws a dagger over his shoulders and kills Tommen.

Obara will die in the fight against Darkstar.

Lady Lance will probably fall in love with Faegon, perhaps even starting a relationship with him. But after the news of Quentyn's death and the fall of Highgarden to Euron reaches them, Faegon sets her aside to marry Arianne and get the Dornish armies on his side. She'll eventually die trying to do something heroic (e.g. killing a dragon or killing a famous knight like Ser Barristan) in order to get Faegon back to her.

Sarella will have a great connection with Sam. She'll probably be impressed with his intelligence (I believe Sam will have forged several links in a very short amount of time) and they'll bond further when she finds Sam practising his archery (she'll probably teach him). Both will find Pate carious and they'll be wary of the pending Ironborn attack, even though others (Leo Tyrell) will laugh about the possibility.

Eventually, they'll discover that Pate is after the dragon book and that he's not what he claims to be. Then the Ironborn attack and Leyton Hightower tries to use a new weapon which goes horribly wrong. The inhabitants (Maesters and non-Maesters) will flee from the city. During the chaos, Pate tries to steal the book, but Sam and Sarella beat him to it. They leave the city and try to blend in with the refugees untill they reach Horn Hill. Shortly after their arrival, they find out that Randyll Tarly has revealed himself as a Blackfyre loyalist and that Faegon and Arianne are now married. Affraid of Pate they decide to use their connections (Sam to Randyll and Sarella to Arianne) and find shelter at the BF court.

They arrive shortly before Faegon takes KL and Dany lands in the Vale. Because of their family ties they are both welcomed at court. Sam starts pleading for the NW (untill he hears of Jon's stabbity stab incident) and quickly rises in rank amongst the Maesters, because of his connections to the most important BF loyalist. After taking KL, Faegon's troops head up north where they find out that Dany's troops have landed in the Vale and that the Lords of the Vale have declared for her. The first clashes between Faegon's troops and the Daenerys loyalists turn out to be disastrous after Dany throws her dragons into the fray.

That's when Sam and Sarella, still affraid for Pate and after hearing the dreadful stories about Daenerys (spread by Arianne of course) decide to hand the dragonslaying manuel over to Faegon, giving him a fighting chance against Dany's dragons.

Ah... Wow?

Not sure all/any of this will come to pass but some of it sounds pretty exciting!

[Rheagar Prime]

Tyene i think she is going to the the man with the most "power" in KL (high sparrow) and how she behaves she will get close and leave a trail of bodies behind along with a sweet innocent smile.

[Alhazred]

Veltigar & I don't think alike at all.

Even if Myrcella is still alive (which I doubt) Doran will never allow her to return safely to King's Landing. Any suggestion to the contrary is merely a ruse.

The Sand Snakes will never involve themselves in subtle, patient plotting like framing Margaery. The reason Doran is releasing the Sand Snakes is because he is finally ready for sudden acts of bloody violence; stealthy? -- yes, but fast and deadly. While he was still engaged in patient plotting, he had them locked away.

Obara vs Darkstar? Never. They are on the same team. Any suggestion to the contrary is a ruse to mislead King's Landing.

Sam and Sarella best buds? Not likely. After Sarella pumped Sam for info, and led him to Marwyn and Fake Pate, then Sam was a goner. After they finish pumping him for info, they will dispose of him, and Fake Pate will become Fake Sam. Fake Sam will then become a problem for Dany or Jon Snow to deal with. But Sam never disclosed he was a coward, and this will be a flaw in Fake Sam's impersonation of "Sam the Slayer".

[The Holy Goat]

Tyene can probably cause the most havoc if she actually manages to gain influence within the Faith. And even if she don't she can cause havoc by using poison. Nymeria won't have it fully as esay on the Small Council, but she's up there.

Sarella is the interesting one though IMO, and she's probably the most capable among them. I believe that she will have a large impact in some way, but probably not in the way it's expected, and possibly in a benevolent way (helping Sam and the Night's Watch or something).

[Veltigar]

Ah... Wow?

Not sure all/any of this will come to pass but some of it sounds pretty exciting!

Not everything will come to pass (certainly not the details). However I think it will go this way in broad strokes. I just wrote it down like this as a mental exercise. The fact that you find it exciting is a pretty good sign, since GRRM wants to write a fascinating/exciting story. :D

Veltigar & I don't think alike at all.

:crying:

Even if Myrcella is still alive (which I doubt) Doran will never allow her to return safely to King's Landing. Any suggestion to the contrary is merely a ruse.

Of course Myrcella is still alive. How can you doubt that! "Gold will be their shrouds and gold will be their crowns" = as long as Myrcella isn't Queen she'll live. And in order for Myrcella to become Queen Tommen has to die. He's still alive and kicking at the end of ADWD, ergo Myrcella is still alive.

Doran will let Myrcella return with Lady Nym. He can't keep Myrcella away without attracting attention to Dornish intentions, which would blow his cautious approach. By letting Myrcella return home, he'll also make sure that Cersei has no reason to doubt the Dornish loyality. This would allow Lady Nym and Tyene to come close to them when they make their move and score a hattrick (Tommen, Myrcella and Cersei in one swoop).

The Sand Snakes will never involve themselves in subtle, patient plotting like framing Margaery. The reason Doran is releasing the Sand Snakes is because he is finally ready for sudden acts of bloody violence; stealthy? -- yes, but fast and deadly. While he was still engaged in patient plotting, he had them locked away.

Tss, do you really think that Lady Nym will get of the boat, pull her knife and call out "ERMAHGERD WUR IS MY REVENGE". My scenario on the other hand does include some finer acts of manipulation (which would be farm more damaging than attacking immediatley like a baboon on heat), but it all culminates in one giant bloody mess, namely fighting in the streets of KL (FM vs. Tyrells) and fighting in the Red Keep (Dornish vs. Lannisters). This scenario also has the bonus of making KL vunerable from attack, breaking the Tyrells and havind the Faith switch side to Team Faegon.

Obara vs Darkstar? Never. They are on the same team. Any suggestion to the contrary is a ruse to mislead King's Landing.

No, they are not. Otherwise they would have gotten rid of Myrcella already and since Tommen is alive she can't be dead.

Sam and Sarella best buds? Not likely. After Sarella pumped Sam for info, and led him to Marwyn and Fake Pate, then Sam was a goner. After they finish pumping him for info, they will dispose of him, and Fake Pate will become Fake Sam. Fake Sam will then become a problem for Dany or Jon Snow to deal with. But Sam never disclosed he was a coward, and this will be a flaw in Fake Sam's impersonation of "Sam the Slayer".

:shocked: I have no idea how you came up with that theory and I don't think I want to know.

Sarella herself seems to find something creepy about Pate. The fact that she asked Sam some questions is not suspicious at all. After all she's curious by nature and Sam's arrival was an odd one. A son of House Tarly, a member of the NW and he apparently told Maester Marwyn something important since the guy just packed his bags and left. I mean who wouldn't be curious to know what Sam has seen up the far North.

And they are made to become friends. Sarella would like Sam because:

1) He's super smart

2) He's a bit of a puzzle (NW-member, ...)

3) He's openminded

4) He's familiar with Summer Islanders and he certainly is no racist

5) Jon ordered him to keep on practicing with the bow, even at the citadel. Sarella seems to be a world class archer. They could bond when she sees Sam training.

[Alhazred]

Of course Myrcella is still alive. How can you doubt that! "Gold will be their shrouds and gold will be their crowns" = as long as Myrcella isn't Queen she'll live.

Rosamund Lannister, Myrcella's double, is a Checkov's Gun waiting to be used. This, coupled with Doran's hints to the Sand Snakes about low-born children resembling high-born children at the Water Gardens (an idea he says he avoided mentioning to Balon Swann - which is another hint), prove that the girl at the Water Gardens is not Myrcella. And if Myrcella is not at the Water Gardens, she is probably dead.

Darkstar's blade was poisoned. Of course it was! Even Oberyn thought that Darkstar was dangerous! Are we really supposed to think he cannot even kill one little girl?

So she dies shortly after the "Queenmaker" chapter. The same chapter in which we learn that a crown was made for her. Her "golden crown and golden shroud" have already been fulfilled. Doran delays the discovery of this secret for a short time, because he is not quite yet ready to strike.

He can't keep Myrcella away without attracting attention to Dornish intentions, which would blow his cautious approach.

He has no choice at this point. Myrcella is already dead, and there is no way he can delay the discovery of this fact beyond a certain point. That's why he tells the Sand Snakes that "war is already upon us."

Tss, do you really think that Lady Nym will get of the boat, pull her knife and call out "ERMAHGERD WUR IS MY REVENGE".

No. That's not her style or function. She's not incapable of stealth. However, she is still a soldier, not a master puppeteer.

Sarella herself seems to find something creepy about Pate.

Fake Pate? Not at all. Sam finds something creepy about Pate. No other reactions are mentioned.

The fact that she asked Sam some questions is not suspicious at all. After all she's curious by nature and Sam's arrival was an odd one.

Idle curiosity? Hardly. Alleras was sent by Marwyn to intercept Sam. Alleras even admitted that much. And Marwyn is in league with Fake Pate; since it is clear enough that someone like Marwyn would never innocently allow someone like the Real Pate to be present at what he claims is a super-secret meeting. And they convince Sam to do the opposite of what Aemon asked of him (DON'T be questioned by Sphynxes; and DO talk to the Archmaesters). And then they arrange to get him an isolated cell overlooking the river, from whence his body will be readily disposed.

Yeah. It's totally suspicious. And possibly the last we'll ever see of Real Sam.

[Veltigar]

Rosamund Lannister, Myrcella's double, is a Checkov's Gun waiting to be used. This, coupled with Doran's hints to the Sand Snakes about low-born children resembling high-born children at the Water Gardens (an idea he avoided mentioning to Balon Swann), prove that the girl at the Water Gardens is not Myrcella. And if Myrcella is not at the Water Gardens, she is probably dead.

It's called a red herring

Darkstar's blade was poisoned. Of course it was! Even Oberyn thought that Darkstar was dangerous! Are we really supposed to think he cannot even kill one little girl?

Yes, of course. GRRM admitted it himself in a response to all the Darkstar hate. Most people ridiculed him because he wasn't even able to kill a little girl. GRRM responded with (I'm parafrasing) "no one could have managed to kill Myrcella that day, not two handed Jaime, not Ser Arthur. Her horse moved out of the way and that's why she survived. She lucked out."

So she dies shortly after the "Queenmaker" chapter. The same chapter in which we learn that a crown was made for her. Her "golden crown and golden shroud" have already been fulfilled. Doran delays the discovery of this secret for a short time, because he is not quite yet ready to strike.

The quote implied that she would actually be crowned, i.e. that all Cersei's children have to become a monarch before they die. It's not just about a physical crown.

If he killed Myrcella than his hand is forced. He has no alternative but to enter immediatley into a full blown war. This is the complete opposite of Doran's MO, as witnessed by his constant thought about the suffering of children and the fact that he

aske

d Arriane in the tWoW to be cautious before commiting Dorne to a war against the IT.

No. That's not her style or function. She's not incapable of stealth. However, she is still a soldier, not a master puppeteer.

She's not a soldier. She uses throwing knives and Tyene uses poison. They are both hitmen. And they relish in intrigue (Tyene's angelic appearance, Lady Nym's use of her body). They are more than up to the task of manipulating.

Idle curiosity? Hardly. Alleras was sent by Marwyn to intercept Sam. Alleras even admitted that much. And Marwyn is in league with Fake Pate; since it is clear enough that someone like Marwyn would never innocently allow someone like the Real Pate to be present at what he claims is a super-secret meeting. And they convince Sam to do the opposite of what Aemon asked of him (DON'T be questioned by Sphynxes; and DO talk to the Archmaesters). And then they arrange to get him an isolated cell overlooking the river, from whence his body will be readily disposed.

Yeah. It's totally suspicious. And possibly the last we'll ever see of Real Sam.

Conspiracy crackpot

[Alhazred]

It's called a red herring

??? Distracting us from what?

Yes, of course. GRRM admitted it himself in a response to all the Darkstar hate. Most people ridiculed him because he wasn't even able to kill a little girl. GRRM responded with (I'm paraphrasing) "no one could have managed to kill Myrcella that day, not two handed Jaime, not Ser Arthur. Her horse moved out of the way and that's why she survived. She lucked out."

However, nobody is claiming she died "that day". His exact words matter. Hence, if you can provide a source, I would appreciate it. In any event, I can see nothing here that proves that Myrcella is not already dead; just GRRM being evasive.

The quote implied that she would actually be crowned [...]

Prophesy is treacherous, as GRRM loves to tell us. Implications are not necessarily correct. And who is to say that she was not "actually crowned"? Whether she actually receives he crown, whether before or after her death, is up to Doran now, isn't it? I am sure that when he sends Cersei Myrcella's bones in a box, it will contain a golden shroud, together with the golden crown that was made for her in Arianne's Queenmaker Plot.

If he killed Myrcella than his hand is forced. He has no alternative but to enter immediatley into a full blown war.

That's pretty much exactly what he tells us the situation is: "War is already upon us."

This is the complete opposite of Doran's MO, as witnessed by his constant thought about the suffering of children

Sorry, but I do not think that is Doran at all. His constant thoughts of children are thoughts of using children as tools for his political schemes. Even his own children. Which is why his wife left him. If his words are deliberately ambiguous, and open to another interpretation, it is only because he is "the grass that hides the snakes."

and the fact that he

aske

d Arriane in the tWoW to be cautious before commiting Dorne to a war against the IT.

Doran is still being cautious yes. But he is moving his pieces into place for a surprise strike.

And he is trying to get accurate information on Fake Aegon. Arianne, in the sample chapter, does not seem to have any doubts either: "War is already upon us, and this time Dorne will not be spared."

Yes, Doran needs information. But what he is trying to decide is whether to throw his lot in with Aegon, or to continue to wait for Dany and Quentyn. Either way, he is nervous and desperate, because he knows Myrcella's death cannot be hidden forever.

But Doran was desperately plotting action before he even heard of the arrival of allied forces. He needs allies, but Myrcella's death means there is a limit to how long he can delay. His situation is desperate, yes. But he all-but tells us as much.

She's not a soldier. She uses throwing knives and Tyene uses poison. They are both hitmen.

Fine. You prefer the semantics "hitman", we will go with that. My point is, she is not the equivalent of a spymaster, like George Smiley, or Karla or M. She is not a grand schemer. She is a field agent. An impulsive, reckless field agent, who Doran had to lock up when he was not ready for action.

And they relish in intrigue

What they relish is action. Surely they have made that clear. That's why he had to lock them up.

Conspiracy crackpot

Dude, now you're just sticking your head in the sand. At the very least you should acknowledge that some of your own ideas (like Alleras' expressing distrust or dislike for Fake Pate) have no basis in the text.

FEAST FOR CROWS ends on what is, at the very least, a cliffhanger. When pasty-faced boy says "I'm Pate, like the pig boy," the reader is supposed to put his hands to his head and say "OMG, Sam is in deep doodoo, now". If the reader has been paying attention at all, then he knows that these are the exact same people Sam has just placed his trust in, by disregarding the dying words of Maester Aemon.

Now perhaps Sam will get out of this dire situation, as heroes often do. Though Sam is really a secondary character, without a lot of plot armor. But at the very least, GRRM intends us to be worried.

Marwyn claims that Sam should not talk to any other Archmaester, because they will murder him. Is that also "conspiracy crackpot"? How is it less crackpot than the idea that Sam should not talk to Marwyn and Alleras and Fake Pate because THEY will murder him? We do know, at the very least, that Fake Pate is indeed a murderer. How can we avoid the suspicion that Sam has indeed talked to the wrong people?

Especially after Marwyn tells Alleras to "take care of" Sam. And Fake Pate (in Alleras' presence) then offers Sam a cell in a remote isolated tower immediately below his own, overlooking the river, from which his body can be readily disposed. Why is Pate the Pig Boy assigning cells to new accolytes? Why so close to his own? And why is Alleras, who was told to "take care of" Sam, going along with it? They are plotting his death.

Now maybe Alleras will turn-coat against Marwyn and save Sam. But, at this point, there is no reason to he/she will do so. That would be a TWIST, at this point.

[Veltigar]

??? Distracting us from what?

Well, you seem pretty distracted from the Dornish plot and how it will unfold ik KL.

However, nobody is claiming she died "that day". His exact words matter. Hence, if you can provide a source, I would appreciate it. In any event, I can see nothing here that proves that Myrcella is not already dead; just GRRM being evasive.

I have tracked the report back to http://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/1jkhgc/spoilers_all_thoughts_on_darkstar/ (second post in the thread and the posters name is Stauncho). I'm awful at tracking these things but I'm pretty sure I read it somewhere.

Anyways, chapter 38 pretty much shows it all since Ser Balon Swann is asked to hunt for Darkstar by Myrcella (ADWD).

Prophesy is treacherous, as GRRM loves to tell us. Implications are not necessarily correct. And who is to say that she was not "actually crowned"? Whether she actually receives he crown, whether before or after her death, is up to Doran now, isn't it? I am sure that when he sends Cersei Myrcella's bones in a box, it will contain a golden shroud, together with the golden crown that was made for her in Arianne's Queenmaker Plot.

If they actually crowned her that would have been shown. The whole sending-Myrcella-home-in-a-box goes against everything Doran's style of playing stands for. It's madness.

That's pretty much exactly what he tells us the situation is: "War is already upon us."

Yeah, but he hasn't exactly made his move yet. He hasn't commited his troops to anything, because he isn't retarded. He knows Dorne can not win this on their own from a military PoV (Doran quote "Valor is a poor substitute for numbers."). To kill myrcella would basically fuck all his plans up. It's much better to send your agents inside, let them get close to your enemies and then when the time is ripe you pounce. So, it's a war of subterfuge, espionage and assassinations.

Sorry, but I do not think that is Doran at all. His constant thoughts of children are thoughts of using children as tools for his political schemes. Even his own children. Which is why his wife left him. If his words are deliberately ambiguous, and open to another interpretation, it is only because he is "the grass that hides the snakes."

Every scene where he sits staring at the kids basicaly says " I must make a wise decision, otherwise my people will suffer". If he declares outright war on Lannisters and Tyrells at this moment they'll eventually crush him. He has to play it more subtly.

Doran is still being cautious yes. But he is moving his pieces into place for a surprise strike.

And he is trying to get accurate information on Fake Aegon. Arianne, in the sample chapter, does not seem to have any doubts either: "War is already upon us, and this time Dorne will not be spared."

Yes, Doran needs information. But what he is trying to decide is whether to throw his lot in with Aegon, or to continue to wait for Dany and Quentyn. Either way, he is nervous and desperate, because he knows Myrcella's death cannot be hidden forever.

But Doran was desperately plotting action before he even heard of the arrival of allied forces. He needs allies, but Myrcella's death means there is a limit to how long he can delay. His situation is desperate, yes. But he all-but tells us as much.

His action is sending in Tyene and Nym with Myrcella. The first to get in deep with the HS and the later to throw in with Cersei. When the time is ripe they pull the rug from under the Lannisters and make their move (= surprise strike or whatever you want to call them). This is action.

Fine. You prefer the semantics "hitman", we will go with that. My point is, she is not the equivalent of a spymaster, like George Smiley, or Karla or M. She is not a grand schemer. She is a field agent. An impulsive, reckless field agent, who Doran had to lock up when he was not ready for action.

Her mission is simple and well described. She doesn't need to be a Varys level spymaster. And for the record both Sand Snakes are a lot more capable than you seem to think (lol never thought I'd be defending the Dornish), now that they have been fully briefed they know to which goal they are working for. They are more than able enough.

What they relish is action. Surely they have made that clear. That's why he had to lock them up.

And Doran gives them that. He makes them part of the action since they'll be thrown in the thick of it. It's a high risk game the Sand snakes are playing and far more suited to their respective MO than a simple war.

Dude, now you're just sticking your head in the sand. At the very least you should acknowledge that some of your own ideas (like Alleras' expressing distrust or dislike for Fake Pate) have no basis in the text.

She finds something quirky about Pate that's what I got from the text don't know what you got out of it.

FEAST FOR CROWS ends on what is, at the very least, a cliffhanger. When pasty-faced boy says "I'm Pate, like the pig boy," the reader is supposed to put his hands to his head and say "OMG, Sam is in deep doodoo, now". If the reader has been paying attention at all, then he knows that these are the exact same people Sam has just placed his trust in, by disregarding the dying words of Maester Aemon.

Now perhaps Sam will get out of this dire situation, as heroes often do. Though Sam is really a secondary character, without a lot of plot armor. But at the very least, GRRM intends us to be worried.

Yeah... Of course we are worried. He's in the vicinity of a freaking FM. That doesn't make your scenario anymore likely to be true, because any reader who knows that Pate = FM and develops a theory about it knows that Sam will be dropped in a pretty dire situation.

Marwyn claims that Sam should not talk to any other Archmaester, because they will murder him. Is that also "conspiracy crackpot"? How is it less crackpot than the idea that Sam should not talk to Marwyn and Alleras and Fake Pate because THEY will murder him? We do know, at the very least, that Fake Pate is indeed a murderer. How can we avoid the suspicion that Sam has indeed talked to the wrong people?

Especially after Marwyn tells Alleras to "take care of" Sam. And Fake Pate (in Alleras' presence) then offers Sam a cell in a remote isolated tower immediately below his own, overlooking the river, from which his body can be readily disposed. Why is Pate the Pig Boy assigning cells to new accolytes? Why so close to his own? And why is Alleras, who was told to "take care of" Sam, going along with it? They are plotting his death.

They might but it's highly unlikely. We'll have to wait for tWoW.