"If one Hand can die, why not a second?"

[Jon of the Dead]

Apologies if this has been mentioned before.

So, who do you think was the Hand Varys killed? I think there are 3 options:

1. Jon Arryn: As we know, he and Stannis were doing their little research on the bastards, and were probably going to share their findings with Robert soon. Varys didn't want that to happen because he needed to delay the war. So killing Jon Arryn seemed to be a relatively good move: he knew Robert was less likely to believe Stannis than Jon. Or perhaps Varys was also planning on killing Stannis before he went away to Dragonstone, who knows.

But...here's the thing: Lysa confessed that she killed Jon, following Petyr's instructions. So, did she lie? Were Petyr and Varys working together in this instance? Maybe Varys knew of that plot but chose to let it happen, and that counts as killing for him? I don't know, I'm not entirely sold on this.

2. Jon Arryn wasn't the only Hand Varys served. Of the other Hands serving during Aerys' reign, we have Tywin (the last Hand who left King's Landing with both his life and titles), Owen Merryweather (exiled), and Jon Connington (exiled).

There are 2 Hands that were less lucky: Qarlton Chelsted and Rossart. Chelsted was decent and competent enough (although Jaime thought he was a craven at first, until he stood up to Aerys when he wanted to burn the city), so maybe Varys thought the man could've helped in some way to save the Targ regime. Varys wanted Aerys to fail, so maybe he was the one who convinced Aerys to burn Chelsted alive (not that Aerys needed much convincing to burn anyone).

As to Rossart, Jaime was the one who killed him, pretty much, so I think Chelsted is a better option.

3. We are told Aerys heard of Varys' work in Essos and offered him the position of Master of Whisperers. But we don't know if Varys was already working in the shadows against the Targs, maybe during the reign of Jahaerys or other, although I'm not sure if the timelines would fit because how old is Varys anyway?

Of course, it can all be a lot of :bs: but who knows with Varys. What do you think?

P.S. I also thought that maybe it was just a clever wordplay by Martin, that maybe IIIlyrio was saying that Varys had killed before, but not necessarily a Hand. It also works that way, but if so it would be one hell of a wordplay

[Mad Monkey]

It's possible that Varys didn't kill anyone, and that the quote only means that since one Hand has already died under mysterious circumstances without causing much issue then the same thing can be repeated here. In this case, Varys may be aware that Arryn was murdered and is simply saying that he can do the same thing to the next one and get away with it.

Or it could be just a reference to how Varys made Connington die (as far as anyone knows, Connington was dead until he resurfaces in the last book).

[Jory Cassel]

I expected an elaborate crackpot on Jaime losing his second hand, I now feel cheated.

[The Great and Mighty Poo]

It's possible that Varys didn't kill anyone, and that the quote only means that since one Hand has already died under mysterious circumstances without causing much issue then the same thing can be repeated here. In this case, Varys may be aware that Arryn was murdered and is simply saying that he can do the same thing to the next one and get away with it.

Or it could be just a reference to how Varys made Connington die (as far as anyone knows, Connington was dead until he resurfaces in the last book).

I go with this

[Jon of the Dead]

It's possible that Varys didn't kill anyone, and that the quote only means that since one Hand has already died under mysterious circumstances without causing much issue then the same thing can be repeated here. In this case, Varys may be aware that Arryn was murdered and is simply saying that he can do the same thing to the next one and get away with it.

Or it could be just a reference to how Varys made Connington die (as far as anyone knows, Connington was dead until he resurfaces in the last book).

Yeah, could be. As I said, it could be just an elaborate way for Martin to mislead the audience.

And yeah, the Connigton thing works well because I'm pretty sure Varys convinced Aerys to exile him, like he did with Barristan, to use him later in his plots. It's a bit strange because both Varys and IIIlyrio know JonCon is not dead and they're talking about a dead Hand, but yeah, it could be too and it definetely works as another option

I expected an elaborate crackpot on Jaime losing his second hand, I now feel cheated.

Sorry to dissapoint :lol:

[Blutraven]

I expected an elaborate crackpot on Jaime losing his second hand, I now feel cheated.

Varys is Zollo the Fat.

It is known.

[Usrnmhsnomning]

It's a blatant reference to the fact that being "Hand of the King" doesn't mean a thing in the game of thrones. It's foreshadowing the fact that Neds position of power was essentially meaningless to the Lannisters because they simply ignored his 'paper shield' and used swords to remove him from power. Nevermind the fact that both LF and Varys essentially ignored the Hand and did whatever the fuck they pleased.

[Hagen of Tronje]

Maybe he didn't kill any hand so far and Jon Arryn's murder (by Littlefinger/Lysa) just came in handy for him and Illyrio?

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

I'm sorry but isn'n it Illyrio who suggest killing Ned and Varys speaks against it? Or am I getting the book and show confused? And I don't think there was any confusion about WHO killed Arryn, just an offhand comment. Hey the last guy died and solved some of our problems why not this one too.

[mindchap]

He could have been referring to JonCon too.

[BigFella69]

As people have previously mentioned I interpret it as Vary's made JonCon "die" so he can also make Ned "die" but really he would send him into exile

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think it just references Arryn's death without necessarily implying that Varys is responsible. "Someone offed the last guy, why can't something similar happen to this one?"

[Aerys Ahai Reborn]

Let us not forget: "You have danced the dance before"
This implies Varys had some involvement, or maybe it just implies Varys knew (or thought he knew) about Arryn's death from LF (or Grandmaester Pycelle) and did nothing.

We also need to consider Varys response.

"Then is not now"
What has really changed since Arryn's death? Stannis went to Dragonstone, the Starks think the Lannisters tried having Bran killed, the Lannisters tried killing Robert in the melee, and word is about to reach Ned about the Catnapping of Tyrion (Yoren at end of chapter).
"And this Hand is not the other"

How is Ned different from Arryn? Arryn was like a father figure to Robert, Ned is like a brother.
Though Cat is much more likely to act after her husband dies compared to Lysa, but Varys really does not know what Lysa is up to in the Vale.


This leaves me to think it is Qarlton Chelsted. But it is supposed to sound like Arryn for us readers to make his death more mysterious.

[RumHam]

I think it just references Arryn's death without necessarily implying that Varys is responsible. "Someone offed the last guy, why can't something similar happen to this one?"

:agree:

Let us not forget: "You have danced the dance before"
This implies Varys had some involvement, or maybe it just implies Varys knew (or thought he knew) about Arryn's death from LF (or Grandmaester Pycelle) and did nothing.

We also need to consider Varys response.

"Then is not now"
What has really changed since Arryn's death? Stannis went to Dragonstone, the Starks think the Lannisters tried having Bran killed, the Lannisters tried killing Robert in the melee, and word is about to reach Ned about the Catnapping of Tyrion (Yoren at end of chapter).
"And this Hand is not the other"

How is Ned different from Arryn? Arryn was like a father figure to Robert, Ned is like a brother.
Though Cat is much more likely to act after her husband dies compared to Lysa, but Varys really does not know what Lysa is up to in the Vale.


This leaves me to think it is Qarlton Chelsted. But it is supposed to sound like Arryn for us readers to make his death more mysterious.

Sorry, but you're over-thinking it. "You have danced the dance before" could just mean that Varys has killed others for this plot, or had to contend with a Hand who was asking similar questions. The burning of Chelsted over a decade ago doesn't seem to fit.

[Queen‍‍‍‍‍‍ Alysanne‍‍™]

I expected an elaborate crackpot on Jaime losing his second hand, I now feel cheated.

:eek:

[Aerys Ahai Reborn]

Sorry, but you're over-thinking it. "You have danced the dance before" could just mean that Varys has killed others for this plot, or had to contend with a Hand who was asking similar questions. The burning of Chelsted over a decade ago doesn't seem to fit.

Probably.

Actually what I think is that "If one hand can die why not a second" refers to Jon Arryn, but "You have done the dance before" and "Then is not now, and this hand is not the other" refers to Qarlton Chelsted.

But I'm probably still over-thinking it.

[Tim Thomason]

Let us not forget: "You have danced the dance before"

This implies Varys had some involvement, or maybe it just implies Varys knew (or thought he knew) about Arryn's death from LF (or Grandmaester Pycelle) and did nothing.

Littlefinger and Varys were not above hanging out together, especially early on during A Game of Thrones (for their own agendas of course). It's not out of the realm of possibility that they both conspired to have Jon Arryn killed, for their own mutual benefit.

We also need to consider Varys response.

"Then is not now"

What has really changed since Arryn's death? Stannis went to Dragonstone, the Starks think the Lannisters tried having Bran killed, the Lannisters tried killing Robert in the melee, and word is about to reach Ned about the Catnapping of Tyrion (Yoren at end of chapter).

"And this Hand is not the other"

How is Ned different from Arryn? Arryn was like a father figure to Robert, Ned is like a brother.

Though Cat is much more likely to act after her husband dies compared to Lysa, but Varys really does not know what Lysa is up to in the Vale.

Varys probably has a good idea what kind of person Lysa Arryn is, from her time in King's Landing. Tyrion understood at least, and he wasn't Master of Whisperers. And while Jon Arryn pretty much raised Ned from childhood, they are two very different individuals. Arryn was a realpolitik, conciliatory, utilitarian-type ruler. Stark was an honor-above-all-else idealist. Varys knows or suspects that Littlefinger's ploy will keep the Vale in line (which it does), while the North is just itching to rise up at the slightest provocation (which they do). Arryn's death doesn't lead directly to war, but helps Varys' overall plan of keeping things murky and almost ready to pop. Stark's death pops everything and seems to send alot of his own plans into (temporary) disarray.

[im317]

the this hand is not the other is probably just Ned being youngish where as Jon was old so his 'natural' death would not be (as) questioned

[Usrnmhsnomning]

the this hand is not the other is probably just Ned being youngish where as Jon was old so his 'natural' death would not be (as) questioned

Jons death wasn't questioned at all.

Wheras

The difference between the Hands is that Jon isn't Ned; Ned is alot harder to bend, and to paraphrase LF, is a pawn that acts with its own mind.

[RumHam]

Jons death wasn't questioned at all.

He was at the door when Ned called, “Varys. “ The eunuch turned back. “How did Jon Arryn die?”

“I wondered when you would get around to that.”