A Northern Conspiracy of Grand Proportions: Part V

[I am of the Night]

Looking closely at the relations between those in the South and North can probably give a hint (though nothing more). There is a real divide in the relationship, yet from what we see the North and South speak the same languages. There may perhaps be a disdain amongst the North for all things southern, but it still doesn't change the fact that for some reason the North seems to have taken up the tongue of the Andals as well as a few other cultural aspects. And yet, the people of Skagos appear to hold to words from the old tongue in their titles/name for their houses and region that they live in. With this in mind, it is easy to glimpse a divide amongst the people of Skagos and the North at large. If there is, then it would fit in with a possible resurgence of Rickon.

Just pictured a scene that gave me goosebumps!

The Northern lords being terrorized by a rampaging giant, only to be saved by little Rickon riding in on Shaggydog telling at the giant in the Old Tongue and have the giant obey him.

Fanfiction territory for sure, but still awesome!

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

IIRC this passage has yet to be mentioned in relation to the GNC, i could be wrong - sorry if this is old news.

Jamie ADwD:

Tyrion would like this one. They could talk from dusk to dawn, arguing about books. For a moment his bitterness toward his brother was forgotten, until he remembered what the Imp had done. “So you are fighting over a crown that one of you took from the other back when the Casterlys still held Casterly Rock, is that the root of it? The crown of a kingdom that has not existed for thousands of years?” He chuckled. “So many years, so many wars, so many kings … you’d think someone would have made a peace.”

“Someone did, my lord. Many someones. We’ve had a hundred peaces with the Brackens, many sealed with marriages. There’s Blackwood blood in every Bracken, and Bracken blood in every Blackwood.The Old King’s Peace lasted half a century. But then some fresh quarrel broke out, and the old wounds opened and began to bleed again. That’s how it always happens, my father says. So long as men remember the wrongs done to their forebears, no peace will ever last. So we go on century after century, with us hating the Brackens and them hating us. My father says there will never be an end to it.”

“There could be.”

“How, my lord? The old wounds never heal, my father says.”

“My father had a saying too. Never wound a foe when you can kill him. Dead men don’t claim vengeance.”

“Their sons do,” said Hoster, apologetically.

“Not if you kill the sons as well. Ask the Casterlys about that if you doubt me. Ask Lord and Lady Tarbeck, or the Reynes of Castamere. Ask the Prince of Dragonstone.” For an instant, the deep red clouds that crowned the western hills reminded him of Rhaegar’s children, all wrapped up in crimson cloaks.

“Is that why you killed all the Starks?”

“Not all,” said Jaime. “Lord Eddard’s daughters live. One has just been wed. The other …” Brienne, where are you? Have you found her? “… if the gods are good, she’ll forget she was a Stark. She’ll wed some burly blacksmith or fat-faced innkeep, fill his house with children, and never need to fear that some knight might come along to smash their heads against a wall.”

“The gods are good,” his hostage said, uncertainly.

I think this pretty clearly foreshadows continued northern resistance and commitment Robb's Kingdom. Jamie's essentially being told just how fragile the IT's peace w/ the North and the Riverlands (Robb's Kingdom) actually is. The reference to age old Blackwood-Braken conflict boiling down to a fight over "The crown of a kingdom that has not existed for thousands of years" is obviously significant considering Robb's crown and the recent hanging of Ryman Frey and recovery of said crown by the BwB/LS. The crown itself is a rallying point. The failure to seal a lasting peace via marriage is also applicable considering (F)Arya and the failed attempt to subdue the North by marrying Sansa to Tyrion. Jamie's attitude is also strikingly similar to those on the boards who act like the North has forgotten and will meekly give up their Kingdom to rejoin the south/IT.

tPatQ spoiler:

The reference to "old wounds" that "never heal" could be an allusion to Daemon and the slashes he made on the weirwood in Harrenhal to mark the passage of time before he battled Aemond which are also referred to as "old wounds" that "bleed afresh every spring." It's also worth noting that the Blackwood were allied to Daemon and the Blacks in the Dance of Dragons

[I am of the Night]

Blackwoods sided with Bloodraven, Brackens with Damien and Bittersteel.

[Lord Martin]

I am a huge fan of GNC... I'm sure it's been posted before, but what role does Jeyne Westerling play?

I used to think she was pregnant and escaped River Run. I no longer believe she was pregnant based on the WOIAF App... but I still think she is not with Edmure and Forley Prester headed west for Casterly Rock... I think she escaped with the Blackfish and is headed for the Neck and/or the Brotherhood here's why:

Two Westerling girls clearly enter River Run but we only have reports of one leaving. More important, Jaime's description of "Jeyne" at River Run does not match Catelyn's from before. Lastly, there is a theme running through Jaime's story line at River Run, that theme being "Jaime is not Tywin." The unstated implication is that Jaime can be fooled more easily than Tywin and indeed is being played at River Run. Also consider the Blackfish's loyalty to the Stark Kingdom and Queen Jeyne.

Here is the textual proof that all three Westerling children were in River Run before the seige, Catelyn II in ASOS:

Robb beckoned the other strangers forward, each in turn. "Ser Rolph Spicer, Lady Sybell's brother. He was castellan at the Crag when we took it." The pepperpot knight inclined his head. A square-built man with a broken nose and a close-cropped grey beard, he looked doughty enough. "The children of Lord Gawen and Lady Sybell. Ser Raynald Westerling." The seashell knight smiled beneath a bushy mustache. Young, lean, rough-hewn, he had good teeth and a thick mop of chestnut hair. "Elenya." The little girl did a quick curtsy. "Rollam Westerling, my squire." The boy started to kneel, saw no one else was kneeling, and bowed instead.

And here's Catelyn V in ASOS:

Lady Westerling had remained at Riverrun with her children; Jeyne, her little sister Eleyna, and young Rollam, Robb's squire, who complained bitterly about being left. Yet that was wise as well. Olyvar Frey had squired for Robb previously, and would doubtless be present for his sister's wedding; to parade his replacement before him would be as unwise as it was unkind. As for Ser Raynald, he was a cheerful young knight who swore that no insult of Walder Frey's could possibly provoke him. And let us pray that insults are all we need to contend with.

Here's Jaime V in AFFC when he’s getting the update on the siege at River Run:

"That's how I see it too. Our good-uncle Emm . . . ah, Lord Emmon, that is . . . he wants Edmure hanged at once. The presence of a Tully Lord of Riverrun distresses him almost as much as the prospective birth of yet another. Daily he beseeches me to make Ser Ryman dangle Tully, never mind how. Meanwhile, I have Lord Gawen Westerling tugging at my other sleeve. The Blackfish has his lady wife inside the castle, along with three of his snot-nosed whelps. His lordship fears Tully will kill them if the Freys hang Edmure. One of them is the Young Wolf's little queen."

So far this is consistent with there being 3 Westerlings at River Run, the 2 girls and Rollam.

Then Jaime appears for his parlay with the Blackfish:

He drew up a yard from Ser Brynden, and inclined his head to the older man. "Kingslayer," said Tully.

That he would make that name the first word from his mouth spoke volumes, but Jaime was resolved to keep his temper. "Blackfish," he responded. "Thank you for coming."

"I assume you have returned to fulfill the oaths you swore my niece," Ser Brynden said. "As I recall, you promised Catelyn her daughters in return for your freedom." His mouth tightened. "Yet I do not see the girls. Where are they?"

Must he make me say it? "I do not have them."

"Pity. Do you wish to resume your captivity? Your old cell is still available. We have put fresh rushes on the floor."

And a nice new pail for me to shit in, I don't doubt. "That was thoughtful of you, ser, but I fear I must decline. I prefer the comforts of my pavilion."

"Whilst Catelyn enjoys the comforts of her grave."

I had no hand in Lady Catelyn's death, he might have said, and her daughters were gone before I reached King's Landing. It was on his tongue to speak of Brienne and the sword he'd given her, but the Blackfish was looking at him the way that Eddard Stark had looked at him when he'd found him on the Iron Throne with the Mad King's blood upon his blade. "I came to speak of the living, not the dead. Of those who need not die, but shall . . ."

". . . unless I hand you Riverrun. Is this where you threaten to hang Edmure?" Beneath his bushy brows, Tully's eyes were stone. "My nephew is marked for death no matter what I do. So hang him and be done with it. I expect that Edmure is as weary of standing on those gallows as I am of seeing him there."

Ryman Frey is a bloody fool. His mummer's show with Edmure and the gallows had only made the Blackfish more obdurate, that was plain. "You hold Lady Sybelle Westerling and three of her children. I'll return your nephew in exchange for them."

"As you returned Lady Catelyn's daughters?"

Jaime did not allow himself to be provoked. "An old woman and three children for your liege lord. That's a better bargain than you could have hoped for."

Ser Brynden smiled a hard smile. "You do not lack for gall, Kingslayer. Bargaining with oathbreakers is like building on quicksand, though. Cat should have known better than to trust the likes of you."

It was Tyrion she trusted in, Jaime almost said. The Imp deceived her too. "The promises I made to Lady Catelyn were wrung from me at swordpoint."

"And the oath you swore to Aerys?"

He felt his phantom fingers twitching. "Aerys is no part of this. Will you exchange the Westerlings for Edmure?"

"No. My king entrusted his queen to my keeping, and I swore to keep her safe. I will not hand her over to a Frey noose."

"The girl has been pardoned. No harm will come to her. You have my word on that."

"Your word of honor?" Ser Brynden raised an eyebrow. "Do you even know what honor is?"

A horse. "I will swear any oath that you require."

"Spare me, Kingslayer."

"I want to. Strike your banners and open your gates and I'll grant your men their lives. Those who wish to remain at Riverrun in service to Lord Emmon may do so. The rest shall be free to go where they will, though I will require them to surrender their arms and armor."

"I wonder, how far will they get, unarmed, before 'outlaws' set upon them? You dare not allow them to join Lord Beric, we both know that. And what of me? Will I be paraded through King's Landing to die like Eddard Stark?"

"I will permit you to take the black. Ned Stark's bastard is the Lord Commander on the Wall."

The Blackfish narrowed his eyes. "Did your father arrange for that as well? Catelyn never trusted the boy, as I recall, no more than she ever trusted Theon Greyjoy. It would seem she was right about them both. No, ser, I think not. I'll die warm, if you please, with a sword in hand running red with lion blood."

"Tully blood runs just as red," Jaime reminded him. "If you will not yield the castle, I must storm it. Hundreds will die."

"Hundreds of mine. Thousands of yours."

"Your garrison will perish to a man."

"I know that song. Do you sing it to the tune of 'The Rains of Castamere'? My men would sooner die upon their feet fighting than on their knees beneath a headsman's axe."

This is not going well. "This defiance serves no purpose, ser. The war is done, and your Young Wolf is dead."

"Murdered in breach of all the sacred laws of hospitality."

"Frey's work, not mine."

"Call it what you will. It stinks of Tywin Lannister."

Jaime could not deny that. "My father is dead as well."

"May the Father judge him justly."

Now, there's an awful prospect. "I would have slain Robb Stark in the Whispering Wood, if I could have reached him. Some fools got in my way. Does it matter how the boy perished? He's no less dead, and his kingdom died when he did."

"You must be blind as well as maimed, ser. Lift your eyes, and you will see that the direwolf still flies above our walls."

"I've seen him. He looks lonely. Harrenhal has fallen. Seagard and Maidenpool. The Brackens have bent the knee, and they've got Tytos Blackwood penned up in Raventree. Piper, Vance, Mooton, all your bannermen have yielded. Only Riverrun remains. We have twenty times your numbers."

"Twenty times the men require twenty times the food. How well are you provisioned, my lord?"

"Well enough to sit here till the end of days if need be, whilst you starve inside your walls." He told the lie as boldly as he could and hoped his face did not betray him.

The Blackfish was not deceived. "The end of your days, perhaps. Our own supplies are ample, though I fear we did not leave much in the fields for visitors."

"We can bring food down from the Twins," said Jaime, "or over the hills from the west, if it comes to that."

"If you say so. Far be it from me to question the word of such an honorable knight."

The scorn in his voice made Jaime bristle. "There is a quicker way to decide the matter. A single combat. My champion against yours."

"I was wondering when you would get to that." Ser Brynden laughed. "Who will it be? Strongboar? Addam Marbrand? Black Walder Frey?" He leaned forward. "Why not you and me, ser?"

That would have been a sweet fight once, Jaime thought, fine fodder for the singers. "When Lady Catelyn freed me, she made me swear not to take arms again against the Starks or Tullys."

"A most convenient oath, ser."

His face darkened. "Are you calling me a coward?"

"No. I am calling you a cripple." The Blackfish nodded at Jaime's golden hand. "We both know you cannot fight with that."

"I had two hands." Would you throw your life away for pride? a voice inside him whispered. "Some might say a cripple and an old man are well matched. Free me from my vow to Lady Catelyn and I will meet you sword to sword. If I win, Riverrun is ours. If you slay me, we'll lift the siege."

Ser Brynden laughed again. "Much as I would welcome the chance to take that golden sword away from you and cut out your black heart, your promises are worthless. I would gain nothing from your death but the pleasure of killing you, and I will not risk my own life for that . . . as small a risk as that may be."

It was a good thing that Jaime wore no sword; elsewise he would have ripped his blade out, and if Ser Brynden did not slay him, the archers on the walls most surely would. "Are there any terms you will accept?" he demanded of the Blackfish.

"From you?" Ser Brynden shrugged. "No."

A few moments worth highlighting. First, the Blackfish won't make a deal for the Westerlings. Trading them for Edmure is a very good deal and could easily be accomplished despite any distrust in Jaime Lannister. Archers on the walls of River Run would keep the exchange honest for example. The better conclusion to reach is that the Blackfish is protecting Jeyne either as the last remnant of Robb's kingdom or perhaps to marry her to Robb's successor. I am sure the history buffs can find examples of brother or cousins marrying widow's in order to keep lands or titles in a particular family.

Next, the Blackfish is clearly still loyal to House Stark despite knowing that only River Run and Raventree remain, so it would be odd for him to flee merely out of cowardice. Why would he be willing to go through a siege that is destined to end badly in order to save "Jeyne" but willing to abandon her to Jaime Lannister? The most obvious answer is, he's not!

And the last point is about Jon Snow. Nowhere in Cat's POVs does she speak to the Blackfish about Jon Snow, in fact she seldom thinks about him except when the issue is raised by someone else. And certainly, Cat never thought of Jon Snow as untrustworthy or duplicitous like Theon Greyjoy. So I think the Blackfish said this to throw Jaime off. The Blackfish doesn't want Jaime contemplating the important of Ned Stark's last living son. So he makes Jaime think that he does not trust Jon Snow and considers him a Lannister ally.

So now I'll turn to earlier in Jaime's travels to River Run. When he first arrives, he meets with Aunt Genna and she ends their conversation, indeed the entire chapter on a funny little note:

His aunt looked at him strangely. "I was seven when Walder Frey persuaded my lord father to give my hand to Emm. His second son, not even his heir. Father was himself a thirdborn son, and younger children crave the approval of their elders. Frey sensed that weakness in him, and Father agreed for no better reason than to please him. My betrothal was announced at a feast with half the west in attendance. Ellyn Tarbeck laughed and the Red Lion went angry from the hall. The rest sat on their tongues. Only Tywin dared speak against the match. A boy of ten. Father turned as white as mare's milk, and Walder Frey was quivering." She smiled. "How could I not love him, after that? That is not to say that I approved of all he did, or much enjoyed the company of the man that he became . . . but every little girl needs a big brother to protect her. Tywin was big even when he was little." She gave a sigh. "Who will protect us now?"

Jaime kissed her cheek. "He left a son."

"Aye, he did. That is what I fear the most, in truth."

That was a queer remark. "Why should you fear?"

"Jaime," she said, tugging on his ear, "sweetling, I have known you since you were a babe at Joanna's breast. You smile like Gerion and fight like Tyg, and there's some of Kevan in you, else you would not wear that cloak . . . but Tyrion is Tywin's son, not you. I said so once to your father's face, and he would not speak to me for half a year. Men are such thundering great fools. Even the sort who come along once in a thousand years."

The important take away is that Jaime is no Tywin. I think this is GRRM's hint to us that Jaime is about to get played like a fiddle at River Run.

So here's Jaime when he first when he meets with Sybil Spicer and “Jeyne Westerling:”

"Lord Commander?" A guardsman stood in the open door. "Lady Westerling and her daughter are without, as you commanded."
Jaime shoved the map aside. "Show them in." At least the girl did not vanish too. Jeyne Westerling had been Robb Stark's queen, the girl who cost him everything. With a wolf in her belly, she could have proved more dangerous than the Blackfish.
She did not look dangerous. Jeyne was a willowy girl, no more than fifteen or sixteen, more awkward than graceful. She had narrow hips, breasts the size of apples, a mop of chestnut curls, and the soft brown eyes of a doe. Pretty enough for a child, Jaime decided, but not a girl to lose a kingdom for. Her face was puffy, and there was a scab on her forehead, half-hidden by a lock of brown hair. "What happened there?" he asked her.

The girl turned her head away. "It is nothing," insisted her mother, a stern-faced woman in a gown of green velvet. A necklace of golden seashells looped about her long, thin neck. "She would not give up the little crown the rebel gave her, and when I tried to take it from her head the willful child fought me."

"It was mine." Jeyne sobbed. "You had no right. Robb had it made for me. I loved him."

Her mother made to slap her, but Jaime stepped between them. "None of that," he warned Lady Sybell. "Sit down, both of you." The girl curled up in her chair like a frightened animal, but her mother sat stiffly, her head high. "Will you have wine?" he asked them. The girl did not answer. "No, thank you," said her mother.

"As you will." Jaime turned to the daughter. "I am sorry for your loss. The boy had courage, I'll give him that. There is a question I must ask you. Are you carrying his child, my lady?"

Jeyne burst from her chair and would have fled the room if the guard at the door had not seized her by the arm. "She is not," said Lady Sybell, as her daughter struggled to escape. "I made certain of that, as your lord father bid me."

Jaime nodded. Tywin Lannister was not a man to overlook such details. "Unhand the girl," he said, "I'm done with her for now." As Jeyne fled sobbing down the stairs, he considered her mother. "House Westerling has its pardon, and your brother Rolph has been made Lord of Castamere. What else would you have of us?"

"Your lord father promised me worthy marriages for Jeyne and her younger sister. Lords or heirs, he swore to me, not younger sons nor household knights."

Lords or heirs. To be sure. The Westerlings were an old House, and proud, but Lady Sybell herself had been born a Spicer, from a line of upjumped merchants. Her grandmother had been some sort of half-mad witch woman from the east, he seemed to recall. And the Westerlings were impoverished. Younger sons would have been the best that Sybell Spicer's daughters could have hoped for in the ordinary course of events, but a nice fat pot of Lannister gold would make even a dead rebel's widow look attractive to some lord. "You'll have your marriages," said Jaime, "but Jeyne must wait two full years before she weds again." If the girl took another husband too soon and had a child by him, inevitably there would come whispers that the Young Wolf was the father.

"I have two sons as well," Lady Westerling reminded him. "Rollam is with me, but Raynald was a knight and went with the rebels to the Twins. If I had known what was to happen there, I would never have allowed that." There was a hint of reproach in her voice. "Raynald knew nought of any . . . of the understanding with your lord father. He may be a captive at the Twins."

Or he may be dead. Walder Frey would not have known of the understanding either. "I will make inquiries. If Ser Raynald is still a captive, we'll pay his ransom for you."

"Mention was made of a match for him as well. A bride from Casterly Rock. Your lord father said that Raynald should have joy of him, if all went as we hoped."

Even from the grave, Lord Tywin's dead hand moves us all. "Joy is my late uncle Gerion's natural daughter. A betrothal can be arranged, if that is your wish, but any marriage will need to wait. Joy was nine or ten when last I saw her."

"His natural daughter?" Lady Sybell looked as if she had swallowed a lemon. "You want a Westerling to wed a bastard?"

"No more than I want Joy to marry the son of some scheming turncloak bitch. She deserves better." Jaime would happily have strangled the woman with her seashell necklace. Joy was a sweet child, albeit a lonely one; her father had been Jaime's favorite uncle. "Your daughter is worth ten of you, my lady. You'll leave with Edmure and Ser Forley on the morrow. Until then, you would do well to stay out of my sight." He shouted for a guardsman, and Lady Sybell went off with her lips pressed primly together. Jaime had to wonder how much Lord Gawen knew about his wife's scheming. How much do we men ever know?

So a few points to note. First, Jaime thinks to himself, thank god Jeyne didn't escape too. I wonder if this is GRRM needling us and Jaime over how unlike Tywin he is. Its an incredibly ironic line suggesting that she did escape.

Next, Jaime's description of Jeyne doesn't match Catelyn's from ASOS when she commented that Jeyne had wide hips for birthing, Jaime notes the opposite.

Lastly for Jeyne, I note that her face is puffy and swollen and her hair in her face. It sort of reminded me of Hermoine's attempts to hide Harry Potter's face in the 7th book by using the bee sting curse. Sisters are expected to look much alike, sisters with a beaten up face would be even more difficult to tell apart.

Next, I highlight the bit about cousin Joy. In ASOS when Tywin is telling Tyrion the price of the Red Wedding, he states that Joy was promised to Walder Frey's bastard son when she comes of age. Tywin wouldn't promise a bastard to both houses, so I think Sybell is lying to Jaime. She likely knows who Joy is, the bastard relative of a regional Lord is usually well known to other regional lords (e.g. Jon Snow). IMO, Sybell is trying to convince Jaime she was in on the RW from the start and that everything was done with Tywin's blessing.

Then Jaime brings it all home when he calls Sybell a "scheming bitch" and wonders how much men ever know of their women's schemes. Speaking of schemes, I'll refer back to Lord Tywin's assessment of Jeyne Westerling, "Jeyne Westerling is her mother's daughter," said Lord Tywin, "and Robb Stark is his father's son." In other words, Jeyne can scheme as well.

Now I go to the Westerling departure from River Run, Jaime VII:

When Edmure and the Westerlings departed, four hundred men rode with them; Jaime had doubled the escort again at the last moment. He rode with them a few miles, to talk with Ser Forley Prester. Though he bore a bull's head upon his surcoat and horns upon his helm, Ser Forley could not have been less bovine. He was a short, spare, hard-bitten man. With his pinched nose, bald pate, and grizzled brown beard, he looked more like an innkeep than a knight. "We don't know where the Blackfish is," Jaime reminded him, "but if he can cut Edmure free, he will."

"That will not happen, my lord." Like most innkeeps, Ser Forley was no man's fool. "Scouts and outriders will screen our march, and we'll fortify our camps by night. I have picked ten men to stay with Tully day and night, my best longbowmen. If he should ride so much as a foot off the road, they will loose so many shafts at him that his own mother would take him for a goose."

"Good." Jaime would as lief have Tully reach Casterly Rock safely, but better dead than fled. "Best keep some archers near Lord Westerling's daughter as well."

Ser Forley seemed taken aback. "Gawen's girl? She's—"

"—the Young Wolf's widow," Jaime finished, "and twice as dangerous as Edmure if she were ever to escape us."
"As you say, my lord. She will be watched."

Jaime had to canter past the Westerlings as he rode down the column on his way back to Riverrun. Lord Gawen nodded gravely as he passed, but Lady Sybell looked through him with eyes like chips of ice. Jeyne never saw him at all. The widow rode with downcast eyes, huddled beneath a hooded cloak. Underneath its heavy folds, her clothes were finely made, but torn. She ripped them herself, as a mark of mourning, Jaime realized. That could not have pleased her mother. He found himself wondering if Cersei would tear her gown if she should ever hear that he was dead.

I note that Eleyna is never seen at River Run. When Jaime sees the Westerlings leave there is no mention of a second daughter, Jaime even uses the singular "daughter" vs. plural "daughters." And again note that Jeyne wears a hood to hide her face and tears her clothes, so we cannot tell if they are ill fitting. Both Jeyne and Sybell as schemers and Jaime is no Tywin to catch them at their lies.

My thought is that the Blackfish has taken Jeyne to the BWB. At the time of his escape,it is noted that he could be 10 leagues down river, which is 30 miles. That has to be close to the Inn of the Kneeling man which is itself a few leagues south of Fairmarket. We know that the BWB took Ryman Frey just a few leagues south of Fairmarket as well.

The way this would work is, Tom O' Sevens was left alone with Edmure before Edmure was free by Jaime into River Run. Edmure then enters and tells the Blackfish about the BWB, their loyalty to the realm and perhaps even that Edmure's sister is now with the Brotherhood. Edmure is basically the go between for the BWB and Blackfish. Blackfish then leaves with Jeyne to seek out the BWB further down the river. North of that is Oldstones and Hag's Mire, which is the last place we saw UnCat and the Brotherhood. So this seems a likely place for the Blackfish to head.

Thoughts?

[Phonzadellika]

I am a huge fan of GNC... I'm sure it's been posted before, but what role does Jeyne Westerling play?

I used to think she was pregnant and escaped River Run. I no longer believe she was pregnant based on the WOIAF App... but I still think she is not with Edmure and Forley Prester headed west for Casterly Rock... I think she escaped with the Blackfish and is headed for the Neck and/or the Brotherhood here's why:

Two Westerling girls clearly enter River Run but we only have reports of one leaving. More important, Jaime's description of "Jeyne" at River Run does not match Catelyn's from before. Lastly, there is a theme running through Jaime's story line at River Run, that theme being "Jaime is not Tywin." The unstated implication is that Jaime can be fooled more easily than Tywin and indeed is being played at River Run. Also consider the Blackfish's loyalty to the Stark Kingdom and Queen Jeyne.

Here is the textual proof that all three Westerling children were in River Run before the seige, Catelyn II in ASOS:

Robb beckoned the other strangers forward, each in turn. "Ser Rolph Spicer, Lady Sybell's brother. He was castellan at the Crag when we took it." The pepperpot knight inclined his head. A square-built man with a broken nose and a close-cropped grey beard, he looked doughty enough. "The children of Lord Gawen and Lady Sybell. Ser Raynald Westerling." The seashell knight smiled beneath a bushy mustache. Young, lean, rough-hewn, he had good teeth and a thick mop of chestnut hair. "Elenya." The little girl did a quick curtsy. "Rollam Westerling, my squire." The boy started to kneel, saw no one else was kneeling, and bowed instead.

And here's Catelyn V in ASOS:

Lady Westerling had remained at Riverrun with her children; Jeyne, her little sister Eleyna, and young Rollam, Robb's squire, who complained bitterly about being left. Yet that was wise as well. Olyvar Frey had squired for Robb previously, and would doubtless be present for his sister's wedding; to parade his replacement before him would be as unwise as it was unkind. As for Ser Raynald, he was a cheerful young knight who swore that no insult of Walder Frey's could possibly provoke him. And let us pray that insults are all we need to contend with.

Here's Jaime V in AFFC when he’s getting the update on the siege at River Run:

"That's how I see it too. Our good-uncle Emm . . . ah, Lord Emmon, that is . . . he wants Edmure hanged at once. The presence of a Tully Lord of Riverrun distresses him almost as much as the prospective birth of yet another. Daily he beseeches me to make Ser Ryman dangle Tully, never mind how. Meanwhile, I have Lord Gawen Westerling tugging at my other sleeve. The Blackfish has his lady wife inside the castle, along with three of his snot-nosed whelps. His lordship fears Tully will kill them if the Freys hang Edmure. One of them is the Young Wolf's little queen."

So far this is consistent with there being 3 Westerlings at River Run, the 2 girls and Rollam.

Then Jaime appears for his parlay with the Blackfish:

He drew up a yard from Ser Brynden, and inclined his head to the older man. "Kingslayer," said Tully.

That he would make that name the first word from his mouth spoke volumes, but Jaime was resolved to keep his temper. "Blackfish," he responded. "Thank you for coming."

"I assume you have returned to fulfill the oaths you swore my niece," Ser Brynden said. "As I recall, you promised Catelyn her daughters in return for your freedom." His mouth tightened. "Yet I do not see the girls. Where are they?"

Must he make me say it? "I do not have them."

"Pity. Do you wish to resume your captivity? Your old cell is still available. We have put fresh rushes on the floor."

And a nice new pail for me to shit in, I don't doubt. "That was thoughtful of you, ser, but I fear I must decline. I prefer the comforts of my pavilion."

"Whilst Catelyn enjoys the comforts of her grave."

I had no hand in Lady Catelyn's death, he might have said, and her daughters were gone before I reached King's Landing. It was on his tongue to speak of Brienne and the sword he'd given her, but the Blackfish was looking at him the way that Eddard Stark had looked at him when he'd found him on the Iron Throne with the Mad King's blood upon his blade. "I came to speak of the living, not the dead. Of those who need not die, but shall . . ."

". . . unless I hand you Riverrun. Is this where you threaten to hang Edmure?" Beneath his bushy brows, Tully's eyes were stone. "My nephew is marked for death no matter what I do. So hang him and be done with it. I expect that Edmure is as weary of standing on those gallows as I am of seeing him there."

Ryman Frey is a bloody fool. His mummer's show with Edmure and the gallows had only made the Blackfish more obdurate, that was plain. "You hold Lady Sybelle Westerling and three of her children. I'll return your nephew in exchange for them."

"As you returned Lady Catelyn's daughters?"

Jaime did not allow himself to be provoked. "An old woman and three children for your liege lord. That's a better bargain than you could have hoped for."

Ser Brynden smiled a hard smile. "You do not lack for gall, Kingslayer. Bargaining with oathbreakers is like building on quicksand, though. Cat should have known better than to trust the likes of you."

It was Tyrion she trusted in, Jaime almost said. The Imp deceived her too. "The promises I made to Lady Catelyn were wrung from me at swordpoint."

"And the oath you swore to Aerys?"

He felt his phantom fingers twitching. "Aerys is no part of this. Will you exchange the Westerlings for Edmure?"

"No. My king entrusted his queen to my keeping, and I swore to keep her safe. I will not hand her over to a Frey noose."

"The girl has been pardoned. No harm will come to her. You have my word on that."

"Your word of honor?" Ser Brynden raised an eyebrow. "Do you even know what honor is?"

A horse. "I will swear any oath that you require."

"Spare me, Kingslayer."

"I want to. Strike your banners and open your gates and I'll grant your men their lives. Those who wish to remain at Riverrun in service to Lord Emmon may do so. The rest shall be free to go where they will, though I will require them to surrender their arms and armor."

"I wonder, how far will they get, unarmed, before 'outlaws' set upon them? You dare not allow them to join Lord Beric, we both know that. And what of me? Will I be paraded through King's Landing to die like Eddard Stark?"

"I will permit you to take the black. Ned Stark's bastard is the Lord Commander on the Wall."

The Blackfish narrowed his eyes. "Did your father arrange for that as well? Catelyn never trusted the boy, as I recall, no more than she ever trusted Theon Greyjoy. It would seem she was right about them both. No, ser, I think not. I'll die warm, if you please, with a sword in hand running red with lion blood."

"Tully blood runs just as red," Jaime reminded him. "If you will not yield the castle, I must storm it. Hundreds will die."

"Hundreds of mine. Thousands of yours."

"Your garrison will perish to a man."

"I know that song. Do you sing it to the tune of 'The Rains of Castamere'? My men would sooner die upon their feet fighting than on their knees beneath a headsman's axe."

This is not going well. "This defiance serves no purpose, ser. The war is done, and your Young Wolf is dead."

"Murdered in breach of all the sacred laws of hospitality."

"Frey's work, not mine."

"Call it what you will. It stinks of Tywin Lannister."

Jaime could not deny that. "My father is dead as well."

"May the Father judge him justly."

Now, there's an awful prospect. "I would have slain Robb Stark in the Whispering Wood, if I could have reached him. Some fools got in my way. Does it matter how the boy perished? He's no less dead, and his kingdom died when he did."

"You must be blind as well as maimed, ser. Lift your eyes, and you will see that the direwolf still flies above our walls."

"I've seen him. He looks lonely. Harrenhal has fallen. Seagard and Maidenpool. The Brackens have bent the knee, and they've got Tytos Blackwood penned up in Raventree. Piper, Vance, Mooton, all your bannermen have yielded. Only Riverrun remains. We have twenty times your numbers."

"Twenty times the men require twenty times the food. How well are you provisioned, my lord?"

"Well enough to sit here till the end of days if need be, whilst you starve inside your walls." He told the lie as boldly as he could and hoped his face did not betray him.

The Blackfish was not deceived. "The end of your days, perhaps. Our own supplies are ample, though I fear we did not leave much in the fields for visitors."

"We can bring food down from the Twins," said Jaime, "or over the hills from the west, if it comes to that."

"If you say so. Far be it from me to question the word of such an honorable knight."

The scorn in his voice made Jaime bristle. "There is a quicker way to decide the matter. A single combat. My champion against yours."

"I was wondering when you would get to that." Ser Brynden laughed. "Who will it be? Strongboar? Addam Marbrand? Black Walder Frey?" He leaned forward. "Why not you and me, ser?"

That would have been a sweet fight once, Jaime thought, fine fodder for the singers. "When Lady Catelyn freed me, she made me swear not to take arms again against the Starks or Tullys."

"A most convenient oath, ser."

His face darkened. "Are you calling me a coward?"

"No. I am calling you a cripple." The Blackfish nodded at Jaime's golden hand. "We both know you cannot fight with that."

"I had two hands." Would you throw your life away for pride? a voice inside him whispered. "Some might say a cripple and an old man are well matched. Free me from my vow to Lady Catelyn and I will meet you sword to sword. If I win, Riverrun is ours. If you slay me, we'll lift the siege."

Ser Brynden laughed again. "Much as I would welcome the chance to take that golden sword away from you and cut out your black heart, your promises are worthless. I would gain nothing from your death but the pleasure of killing you, and I will not risk my own life for that . . . as small a risk as that may be."

It was a good thing that Jaime wore no sword; elsewise he would have ripped his blade out, and if Ser Brynden did not slay him, the archers on the walls most surely would. "Are there any terms you will accept?" he demanded of the Blackfish.

"From you?" Ser Brynden shrugged. "No."

A few moments worth highlighting. First, the Blackfish won't make a deal for the Westerlings. Trading them for Edmure is a very good deal and could easily be accomplished despite any distrust in Jaime Lannister. Archers on the walls of River Run would keep the exchange honest for example. The better conclusion to reach is that the Blackfish is protecting Jeyne either as the last remnant of Robb's kingdom or perhaps to marry her to Robb's successor. I am sure the history buffs can find examples of brother or cousins marrying widow's in order to keep lands or titles in a particular family.

Next, the Blackfish is clearly still loyal to House Stark despite knowing that only River Run and Raventree remain, so it would be odd for him to flee merely out of cowardice. Why would he be willing to go through a siege that is destined to end badly in order to save "Jeyne" but willing to abandon her to Jaime Lannister? The most obvious answer is, he's not!

And the last point is about Jon Snow. Nowhere in Cat's POVs does she speak to the Blackfish about Jon Snow, in fact she seldom thinks about him except when the issue is raised by someone else. And certainly, Cat never thought of Jon Snow as untrustworthy or duplicitous like Theon Greyjoy. So I think the Blackfish said this to throw Jaime off. The Blackfish doesn't want Jaime contemplating the important of Ned Stark's last living son. So he makes Jaime think that he does not trust Jon Snow and considers him a Lannister ally.

So now I'll turn to earlier in Jaime's travels to River Run. When he first arrives, he meets with Aunt Genna and she ends their conversation, indeed the entire chapter on a funny little note:

His aunt looked at him strangely. "I was seven when Walder Frey persuaded my lord father to give my hand to Emm. His second son, not even his heir. Father was himself a thirdborn son, and younger children crave the approval of their elders. Frey sensed that weakness in him, and Father agreed for no better reason than to please him. My betrothal was announced at a feast with half the west in attendance. Ellyn Tarbeck laughed and the Red Lion went angry from the hall. The rest sat on their tongues. Only Tywin dared speak against the match. A boy of ten. Father turned as white as mare's milk, and Walder Frey was quivering." She smiled. "How could I not love him, after that? That is not to say that I approved of all he did, or much enjoyed the company of the man that he became . . . but every little girl needs a big brother to protect her. Tywin was big even when he was little." She gave a sigh. "Who will protect us now?"

Jaime kissed her cheek. "He left a son."

"Aye, he did. That is what I fear the most, in truth."

That was a queer remark. "Why should you fear?"

"Jaime," she said, tugging on his ear, "sweetling, I have known you since you were a babe at Joanna's breast. You smile like Gerion and fight like Tyg, and there's some of Kevan in you, else you would not wear that cloak . . . but Tyrion is Tywin's son, not you. I said so once to your father's face, and he would not speak to me for half a year. Men are such thundering great fools. Even the sort who come along once in a thousand years."

The important take away is that Jaime is no Tywin. I think this is GRRM's hint to us that Jaime is about to get played like a fiddle at River Run.

So here's Jaime when he first when he meets with Sybil Spicer and “Jeyne Westerling:”

"Lord Commander?" A guardsman stood in the open door. "Lady Westerling and her daughter are without, as you commanded."

Jaime shoved the map aside. "Show them in." At least the girl did not vanish too. Jeyne Westerling had been Robb Stark's queen, the girl who cost him everything. With a wolf in her belly, she could have proved more dangerous than the Blackfish.

She did not look dangerous. Jeyne was a willowy girl, no more than fifteen or sixteen, more awkward than graceful. She had narrow hips, breasts the size of apples, a mop of chestnut curls, and the soft brown eyes of a doe. Pretty enough for a child, Jaime decided, but not a girl to lose a kingdom for. Her face was puffy, and there was a scab on her forehead, half-hidden by a lock of brown hair. "What happened there?" he asked her.

The girl turned her head away. "It is nothing," insisted her mother, a stern-faced woman in a gown of green velvet. A necklace of golden seashells looped about her long, thin neck. "She would not give up the little crown the rebel gave her, and when I tried to take it from her head the willful child fought me."

"It was mine." Jeyne sobbed. "You had no right. Robb had it made for me. I loved him."

Her mother made to slap her, but Jaime stepped between them. "None of that," he warned Lady Sybell. "Sit down, both of you." The girl curled up in her chair like a frightened animal, but her mother sat stiffly, her head high. "Will you have wine?" he asked them. The girl did not answer. "No, thank you," said her mother.

"As you will." Jaime turned to the daughter. "I am sorry for your loss. The boy had courage, I'll give him that. There is a question I must ask you. Are you carrying his child, my lady?"

Jeyne burst from her chair and would have fled the room if the guard at the door had not seized her by the arm. "She is not," said Lady Sybell, as her daughter struggled to escape. "I made certain of that, as your lord father bid me."

Jaime nodded. Tywin Lannister was not a man to overlook such details. "Unhand the girl," he said, "I'm done with her for now." As Jeyne fled sobbing down the stairs, he considered her mother. "House Westerling has its pardon, and your brother Rolph has been made Lord of Castamere. What else would you have of us?"

"Your lord father promised me worthy marriages for Jeyne and her younger sister. Lords or heirs, he swore to me, not younger sons nor household knights."

Lords or heirs. To be sure. The Westerlings were an old House, and proud, but Lady Sybell herself had been born a Spicer, from a line of upjumped merchants. Her grandmother had been some sort of half-mad witch woman from the east, he seemed to recall. And the Westerlings were impoverished. Younger sons would have been the best that Sybell Spicer's daughters could have hoped for in the ordinary course of events, but a nice fat pot of Lannister gold would make even a dead rebel's widow look attractive to some lord. "You'll have your marriages," said Jaime, "but Jeyne must wait two full years before she weds again." If the girl took another husband too soon and had a child by him, inevitably there would come whispers that the Young Wolf was the father.

"I have two sons as well," Lady Westerling reminded him. "Rollam is with me, but Raynald was a knight and went with the rebels to the Twins. If I had known what was to happen there, I would never have allowed that." There was a hint of reproach in her voice. "Raynald knew nought of any . . . of the understanding with your lord father. He may be a captive at the Twins."

Or he may be dead. Walder Frey would not have known of the understanding either. "I will make inquiries. If Ser Raynald is still a captive, we'll pay his ransom for you."

"Mention was made of a match for him as well. A bride from Casterly Rock. Your lord father said that Raynald should have joy of him, if all went as we hoped."

Even from the grave, Lord Tywin's dead hand moves us all. "Joy is my late uncle Gerion's natural daughter. A betrothal can be arranged, if that is your wish, but any marriage will need to wait. Joy was nine or ten when last I saw her."

"His natural daughter?" Lady Sybell looked as if she had swallowed a lemon. "You want a Westerling to wed a bastard?"

"No more than I want Joy to marry the son of some scheming turncloak bitch. She deserves better." Jaime would happily have strangled the woman with her seashell necklace. Joy was a sweet child, albeit a lonely one; her father had been Jaime's favorite uncle. "Your daughter is worth ten of you, my lady. You'll leave with Edmure and Ser Forley on the morrow. Until then, you would do well to stay out of my sight." He shouted for a guardsman, and Lady Sybell went off with her lips pressed primly together. Jaime had to wonder how much Lord Gawen knew about his wife's scheming. How much do we men ever know?

So a few points to note. First, Jaime thinks to himself, thank god Jeyne didn't escape too. I wonder if this is GRRM needling us and Jaime over how unlike Tywin he is. Its an incredibly ironic line suggesting that she did escape.

Next, Jaime's description of Jeyne doesn't match Catelyn's from ASOS when she commented that Jeyne had wide hips for birthing, Jaime notes the opposite.

Lastly for Jeyne, I note that her face is puffy and swollen and her hair in her face. It sort of reminded me of Hermoine's attempts to hide Harry Potter's face in the 7th book by using the bee sting curse. Sisters are expected to look much alike, sisters with a beaten up face would be even more difficult to tell apart.

Next, I highlight the bit about cousin Joy. In ASOS when Tywin is telling Tyrion the price of the Red Wedding, he states that Joy was promised to Walder Frey's bastard son when she comes of age. Tywin wouldn't promise a bastard to both houses, so I think Sybell is lying to Jaime. She likely knows who Joy is, the bastard relative of a regional Lord is usually well known to other regional lords (e.g. Jon Snow). IMO, Sybell is trying to convince Jaime she was in on the RW from the start and that everything was done with Tywin's blessing.

Then Jaime brings it all home when he calls Sybell a "scheming bitch" and wonders how much men ever know of their women's schemes. Speaking of schemes, I'll refer back to Lord Tywin's assessment of Jeyne Westerling, "Jeyne Westerling is her mother's daughter," said Lord Tywin, "and Robb Stark is his father's son." In other words, Jeyne can scheme as well.

Now I go to the Westerling departure from River Run, Jaime VII:

When Edmure and the Westerlings departed, four hundred men rode with them; Jaime had doubled the escort again at the last moment. He rode with them a few miles, to talk with Ser Forley Prester. Though he bore a bull's head upon his surcoat and horns upon his helm, Ser Forley could not have been less bovine. He was a short, spare, hard-bitten man. With his pinched nose, bald pate, and grizzled brown beard, he looked more like an innkeep than a knight. "We don't know where the Blackfish is," Jaime reminded him, "but if he can cut Edmure free, he will."

"That will not happen, my lord." Like most innkeeps, Ser Forley was no man's fool. "Scouts and outriders will screen our march, and we'll fortify our camps by night. I have picked ten men to stay with Tully day and night, my best longbowmen. If he should ride so much as a foot off the road, they will loose so many shafts at him that his own mother would take him for a goose."

"Good." Jaime would as lief have Tully reach Casterly Rock safely, but better dead than fled. "Best keep some archers near Lord Westerling's daughter as well."

Ser Forley seemed taken aback. "Gawen's girl? She's—"

"—the Young Wolf's widow," Jaime finished, "and twice as dangerous as Edmure if she were ever to escape us."

"As you say, my lord. She will be watched."

Jaime had to canter past the Westerlings as he rode down the column on his way back to Riverrun. Lord Gawen nodded gravely as he passed, but Lady Sybell looked through him with eyes like chips of ice. Jeyne never saw him at all. The widow rode with downcast eyes, huddled beneath a hooded cloak. Underneath its heavy folds, her clothes were finely made, but torn. She ripped them herself, as a mark of mourning, Jaime realized. That could not have pleased her mother. He found himself wondering if Cersei would tear her gown if she should ever hear that he was dead.

I note that Eleyna is never seen at River Run. When Jaime sees the Westerlings leave there is no mention of a second daughter, Jaime even uses the singular "daughter" vs. plural "daughters." And again note that Jeyne wears a hood to hide her face and tears her clothes, so we cannot tell if they are ill fitting. Both Jeyne and Sybell as schemers and Jaime is no Tywin to catch them at their lies.

My thought is that the Blackfish has taken Jeyne to the BWB. At the time of his escape,it is noted that he could be 10 leagues down river, which is 30 miles. That has to be close to the Inn of the Kneeling man which is itself a few leagues south of Fairmarket. We know that the BWB took Ryman Frey just a few leagues south of Fairmarket as well.

The way this would work is, Tom O' Sevens was left alone with Edmure before Edmure was free by Jaime into River Run. Edmure then enters and tells the Blackfish about the BWB, their loyalty to the realm and perhaps even that Edmure's sister is now with the Brotherhood. Edmure is basically the go between for the BWB and Blackfish. Blackfish then leaves with Jeyne to seek out the BWB further down the river. North of that is Oldstones and Hag's Mire, which is the last place we saw UnCat and the Brotherhood. So this seems a likely place for the Blackfish to head.

Thoughts?

Well researched and analyzed.

One question, why would Sybell go along with it? They are going back to the Westerlands and will be far richer because of their role in bringing down Robb's kingdom. If Jeyne Westerling is found to be alive the rest of the Westerlings are within reach of Casterly Rock and doomed.

[Lord Martin]

Well researched and analyzed.

One question, why would Sybell go along with it? They are going back to the Westerlands and will be far richer because of their role in bringing down Robb's kingdom. If Jeyne Westerling is found to be alive the rest of the Westerlings are within reach of Casterly Rock and doomed.

Very good question and I'd admittedly be guessing but my thoughts are:

1. She doesn't know... its possible Jeyne left w/o telling Sybell putting Sybell in the awkward position of having to decide whether to tell Jaime the truth and risk facing his wrath. Or, go along with the plan to use Elyna as the double and hope she gets away with it.

2. She's pissed Rollam died in the Red Wedding and is trying to snub Tywin.

3. She wants her daughter to have a claim to the North...

All are options, but admittedly its tough to know....

[sertravisredbeard]

As to the reasons Sybell might not go along with it, Brynden, Jeyne, and Edmure might not have given her a choice. If at some point Sybell or Jeyne let slip to the Blackfish about the "fertility" medicine she'd been giving Jeyne, he could have begun to suspect Sybell was colluding with Tywin from the beginning. The cavalier attitude she displays about Robb and her instructions from Tywin when talking to Jaime shows that she was acting from a realpolitik stance the entire time.

The Blackfish is a smart guy, if he thought for a second that Jeyne's mother was playing both sides, and that resulted in his niece and her son the king being murdered I doubt he'd have any mercy for her. Jeyne probably wouldn't either I would think. When/if Blackish and Edmure floated the idea of escaping with Jeyne and Sybell protested too fervently, she might have risked being killed herself, so she had no choice but to let them try to ruse of passing Eleyna off as Jeyne.

[Minstral]

I'm not one that really wants to get hung up on the Jeyne idea escaping (anymore that is)... but I will pick up on something that concerns both the Westerlings and the Tullys. That is, that if Stoneheart or the Blackfish were to attempt overtake the escort that Jaime left in the command of Prestor who would be a higher priority to secure? Factors need to be considered first, such as if real Jeyne is there or not, and that teh BWB or the BL knows it. Still who is more of a benefit to a Northern cause. Jeyne may be a widow, but the fact that she was married to a king means that it is very possible that her status could be raised amongst the rebels that did continue to support the Starks to the end, or she can be moved about to tell the world at large in detail the duplicity of the Lannisters and their involvement in Robb's death.

As to Edmure, he is now the attainted Lord Paramount of the Riverlands. Still hugely important to those that want to have House Tully back in Riverrun, but how would he personally weigh to the likes of Brynden and Stoneheart. Obviously, his sister is not the woman he knew, which is an understatement, she has irreversibly changed and supposedly lost part of herself as it was hinted that memory was a cost of a resurrection. Much of what remains in her is hate and terrifying cruelty to those that wronged her. So assuming that she would wish to secure these prisoners, how does she weigh the brother who could very much look as a traitor to her when he turned their home over to said hated enemies (Lannisters and Freys both) who also happens to have a Frey wife?

The Blackfish is more rational than FrankenCat, but I am not convinced that he has a very high opinion of his nephew... Over the course of the war I think that he has come to resent him for what he perceives as Edmure's failure on and off the battlefield to his family and king. He was critical of his nephew to the point that he threatened him, and even goaded Jaime into attempting to hanging him. There is a good possibility that the two made plans for when Edmure surrendered the garrison and castle, but I have a feeling that the agreement was grudging. He now gets to see his nephew abandon their cause (perhaps) when he is given the reins of authority which could translate to another failure in Brynden's eyes. So does he go after the Widow Queen or his nephew?

[Feliciano69]

Out of all the crackpots and crazy theories, I find this to be the most stupid.

It's basically a second Red Wedding what peole are proposing, it involves that several, if not practically all Lords, break their vow of loyalty to a king, which will end in his death and somehow end up as the "glorious return" of a King in The North.

It sounds so much like a "fan pleasing" theory for people dissapointed at how Robb's campaign turned out, I don't know, I hate it.

[Valkyrist]

I recently helped host a 40-minute audio discussion on the Grand Northern Conspiracy. If anyone is interested, you can listen to it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgDRuRaM5Nw

[Yeade]

So, I finally decided to get my lazy ass in gear and try to finish the long planned additions to my GNC essay footnotes. I need help finding a few references, though.

The first is one of the Stark children's memory of Ned inviting members of the Winterfell household to dine with him and his family at the high table. I cannot for the life of me figure out whose POV or even which book this is in. Since the argument's that the northern lords are familiar enough with Arya to suss out Jeyne Poole as a fake, any passages about the speculated conspirators coming to Winterfell or the Starks going to call on their bannermen--Arya's throwaway line in her second AFFC chapter about visiting White Harbor twice with her father, for example--would be appreciated, too.

The second is descriptions of the Umber forces within (Whoresbane) and without (Crowfood) Winterfell in ADWD, specifically any noting the ages of the men. It might also be interesting to see which other northern contingents have the same division of ages as the Umbers. One of Manderly's knights is "a hard-faced greybeard," though he's the eldest of the bunch defending his lord from Hosteen Frey in Theon's last POV.

As an unrelated observation, upon re-reading, the way Robett introduces himself to Davos can be taken as a very light hint that he's in contact with Galbart, IMO.

Davos eyed the stranger warily... "Who are you?"

"Robett Glover, if it please, my lord."

"Glover. Your seat was Deepwood Motte."

"My brother Galbart's seat. It was and is, thanks to your King Stannis. He has taken Deepwood back from the iron bitch who stole it and offers to restore it to its rightful owners."

Robett seems certain at least that his brother's alive and well, similar to Alysane Mormont's knowledge of her mother and sisters. Looking at the map, it makes sense to me that, if the crannogmen were to send a loyal messenger to another northern house, White Harbor would be the first stop, and Galbart learns prior to leaving for Greywater Watch that Robett takes ship north from Duskendale, with White Harbor as the obvious destination. It's possible then that Howland Reed and his guests have been conspiring with Manderly for some time, I think, sharing news of Robb naming Jon his heir and plans to retake the North from the ironborn and Boltons alike. In fact, it may have been Manderly all along who relays Maege's instructions to Alysane about Deepwood Motte and who knows what else, perhaps via his existing connections to the Umbers since he (supposedly) doesn't trust his Lannister of Lannisport maester.

Well, I feel a lot of questions remain about the timeline of events. For now, Manderly, Umber, Reed, Mormont, Glover, and maybe Locke are the houses I suspect of being in collusion prior to Barrowton. The Hornwoods, Cerwyns, and Tallharts join the conspiracy at Barrowton or, more generally, before the wedding party reaches Winterfell while the mountain clansmen do likewise at Deepwood Motte or shortly thereafter on the march with Stannis. That leaves the Dustins and Ryswells as the last to be turned against the Boltons, in Winterfell after Ramsay's married to fake!Arya and Lady Dustin tours the crypts with Theon as her guide.

[Pecan]

So, I finally decided to get my lazy ass in gear and try to finish the long planned additions to my GNC essay footnotes. I need help finding a few references, though.

The first is one of the Stark children's memory of Ned inviting members of the Winterfell household to dine with him and his family at the high table. I cannot for the life of me figure out whose POV or even which book this is in. Since the argument's that the northern lords are familiar enough with Arya to suss out Jeyne Poole as a fake, any passages about the speculated conspirators coming to Winterfell or the Starks going to call on their bannermen--Arya's throwaway line in her second AFFC chapter about visiting White Harbor twice with her father, for example--would be appreciated, too.

That's Bran's POV in AGOT. I believe he's narrating about "Robb the Lord" trying to emulate their father.

[Ghost's Shadow]

Arya II, Feast:

“Could I be Cat?”

“Cat.” He considered. “Yes. Braavos is full of cats. One more will not be noticed. You are Cat, an orphan of...”

“King’s Landing.” She had visited White Harbor with her father twice, but she knew King’s Landing better.

Bran VI, aGoT (after Arya left, Bran and Robb are present but don't have the Stark looks):

The maester had taught him all the banners: the mailed fist of the Glovers, silver on scarlet; Lady Mormont’s black bear; the hideous flayed man that went before Roose Bolton of the Dreadfort; a bull moose for the Hornwoods; a battle-axe for the Cerwyns; three sentinel trees for the Tallharts; and the fearsome sigil of House Umber, a roaring giant in shattered chains.

And soon enough he learned the faces too, when the lords and their sons and knights retainer came to Winterfell to feast. Even the Great Hall was not large enough to seat all of them at once, so Robb hosted each of the principal bannermen in turn. Bran was always given the place of honor at his brother’s right hand. Some of the lords bannermen gave him queer hard stares as he sat there, as if they wondered by what right a green boy should be placed above them, and him a cripple too.

Catelyn VIII, aGoT:

She was hearing the lords bannermen speaking with her son’s voice, she realized. Over the years, she had hosted many of them at Winterfell, and been welcomed with Ned to their own hearths and tables. She knew what sorts of men they were, each one. She wondered if Robb did.

Catelyn IX, aGoT:

Robb rode at the front of the column, beneath the flapping white banner of Winterfell. Each day he would ask one of his lords to join him, so they might confer as they marched; he honored every man in turn, showing no favorites, listening as his lord father had listened, weighing the words of one against the other. He has learned so much from Ned, she thought as she watched him, but has he learned enough?

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

These aren't the references you were looking for nevertheless they're relevant to who knows (F)arya's a fake.

Jaime ASoS Ch. 72

The outer ward was crowded and noisy that morning. Jaime made for the stables, where a large group of men were saddling their horses. “Steelshanks!” he called. “Are you off, then?”

“As soon as m’lady is mounted,” said Steelshanks Walton. “My lord of Bolton expects us. Here she is now.”

A groom led a fine grey mare out the stable door. On her back was mounted a skinny hollow- eyed girl wrapped in a heavy cloak. Grey, it was, like the dress beneath it, and trimmed with white satin. The clasp that pinned it to her breast was wrought in the shape of a wolf ‘s head with slitted opal eyes. The girl’s long brown hair blew wild in the wind. She had a pretty face, he thought, but her eyes were sad and wary.

When she saw him, she inclined her head. “Ser Jaime,” she said in a thin anxious voice. “You are kind to see me off.”

Jaime studied her closely. “You know me, then?”

She bit her lip. “You may not recall, my lord, as I was littler then... but I had the honor to meet you at Winterfell when King Robert came to visit my father Lord Eddard.” She lowered her big brown eyes and mumbled, “I’m Arya Stark.”

Jaime had never paid much attention to Arya Stark, but it seemed to him that this girl was older. “I understand you’re to be married.”

Arguably the most self absorbed man in Westeros even noticed the difference without even paying any attention.

Jon ASoS Ch. 7

“The Wall can stop an army, but not a man alone. I took a lute and a bag of silver, scaled the ice near Long Barrow, walked a few leagues south of the New Gift, and bought a horse. All in all I made much better time than Robert, who was traveling with a ponderous great wheelhouse to keep his queen in comfort. A day south of Winterfell I came up on him and fell in with his company. Freeriders and hedge knights are always attaching themselves to royal processions, in hopes of finding service with the king, and my lute gained me easy acceptance.” He laughed. “I know every bawdy song that’s ever been made, north or south of the Wall. So there you are. The night your father feasted Robert, I sat in the back of his hall on a bench with the other freeriders, listening to Orland of Oldtown play the high harp and sing of dead kings beneath the sea. I betook of your lord father’s meat and mead, had a look at Kingslayer and Imp... and made passing note of Lord Eddard’s children and the wolf pups that ran at their heels.”

“Bael the Bard,” said Jon, remembering the tale that Ygritte had told him in the Frostfangs, the night he’d almost killed her.

“Would that I were. I will not deny that Bael’s exploit inspired mine own... but I did not steal either of your sisters that I recall. Bael wrote his own songs, and lived them. I only sing the songs that better men have made. More mead?”

Mance, whom I see as far more preceptive, specifically takes note of Ned's daughters.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

So, I finally decided to get my lazy ass in gear and try to finish the long planned additions to my GNC essay footnotes. I need help finding a few references, though.

The first is one of the Stark children's memory of Ned inviting members of the Winterfell household to dine with him and his family at the high table. I cannot for the life of me figure out whose POV or even which book this is in. Since the argument's that the northern lords are familiar enough with Arya to suss out Jeyne Poole as a fake, any passages about the speculated conspirators coming to Winterfell or the Starks going to call on their bannermen--Arya's throwaway line in her second AFFC chapter about visiting White Harbor twice with her father, for example--would be appreciated, too.

The second is descriptions of the Umber forces within (Whoresbane) and without (Crowfood) Winterfell in ADWD, specifically any noting the ages of the men. It might also be interesting to see which other northern contingents have the same division of ages as the Umbers. One of Manderly's knights is "a hard-faced greybeard," though he's the eldest of the bunch defending his lord from Hosteen Frey in Theon's last POV.

As an unrelated observation, upon re-reading, the way Robett introduces himself to Davos can be taken as a very light hint that he's in contact with Galbart, IMO.

Davos eyed the stranger warily... "Who are you?"

"Robett Glover, if it please, my lord."

"Glover. Your seat was Deepwood Motte."

"My brother Galbart's seat. It was and is, thanks to your King Stannis. He has taken Deepwood back from the iron bitch who stole it and offers to restore it to its rightful owners."

Robett seems certain at least that his brother's alive and well, similar to Alysane Mormont's knowledge of her mother and sisters. Looking at the map, it makes sense to me that, if the crannogmen were to send a loyal messenger to another northern house, White Harbor would be the first stop, and Galbart learns prior to leaving for Greywater Watch that Robett takes ship north from Duskendale, with White Harbor as the obvious destination. It's possible then that Howland Reed and his guests have been conspiring with Manderly for some time, I think, sharing news of Robb naming Jon his heir and plans to retake the North from the ironborn and Boltons alike. In fact, it may have been Manderly all along who relays Maege's instructions to Alysane about Deepwood Motte and who knows what else, perhaps via his existing connections to the Umbers since he (supposedly) doesn't trust his Lannister of Lannisport maester.

Well, I feel a lot of questions remain about the timeline of events. For now, Manderly, Umber, Reed, Mormont, Glover, and maybe Locke are the houses I suspect of being in collusion prior to Barrowton. The Hornwoods, Cerwyns, and Tallharts join the conspiracy at Barrowton or, more generally, before the wedding party reaches Winterfell while the mountain clansmen do likewise at Deepwood Motte or shortly thereafter on the march with Stannis. That leaves the Dustins and Ryswells as the last to be turned against the Boltons, in Winterfell after Ramsay's married to fake!Arya and Lady Dustin tours the crypts with Theon as her guide.

Regarding Ned inviting WF household to dine at table with the family, it is AGoT, ch.22 Arya:

"Back at Winterfell, they had eaten in the Great Hall almost half the time. Her father used to say that a lord needed to eat with his men, if he hoped to keep them. "Know the men who follow you. Don't ask your men to die for a stranger." At Winterfell, he always had an extra seat at his own table,, and every day a different man would be asked to join him. One night it would be Vayon Poole, and the talk would be coppers and bread stores and servants. The next time it would be Mikken, and her father would listen to him go on about armor and swords and how hot a forge should be and the best way to temper steel. Another day it might be Hullen with his endless horse talk, or Septon Chayle from the library, or Jory, or Ser Rodrik, or even Old Nan with her stories."

Regarding communication, the Manderlys and Umbers would have been in contact regarding the cooperative building of ships ordered by Ser Rodrik. Possibly an Umber representative delivering lumber to WH may have been able to carry messages? Also, as far as the Glovers go I agree that there appears to have been communication and there is no reason to think Galbart wouldn't have been carefully in touch with other loyal northern lords. But I also think that opportunity existed for Lady Glover at Deepwood to have been in contact with someone (possibly GW or Umbers) as she was noted to spend much of her time praying in the godswood with her master. We have seen "praying" used as a cover for secret communications by Sansa in the Red Keep.

The description of the Umber groups is from the Theon spoiler chapter, I believe? I will check my locator to see which other houses have men in both camps so we can reference any descriptions.

[Yeade]

Lord of Groans, do you mean the Bran POV that begins with the arrival of the Karstarks in Winterfell and ends with Robb's departure for the march south? A quick skim didn't find the passage I'm looking for, though I enjoyed re-reading Robb the Lord's handling of the Stark bannermen. Oh, how I hope the Greatjon will soon be freed from captivity!

ETA: Never mind! Lady Gwynhyfvar's answered my question!

Ghost's Shadow, thanks for the Catelyn quotes! The first is somewhat more relevant than the second, I feel, because Robb heading off to war with his father's men, who he must familiarize himself with, is not perhaps the best indicator of how Ned would've ruled in peacetime. I'll probably review Bran's ACOK chapters yet again and Alys Karstark's memory of when she visited Winterfell as a girl of six for hints of what the norm might've been. Actually, Wylla Manderly's almost the same age as Alys, who's about sixteen in ADWD, right? What are the chances that Manderly called on the Starks with his daughter fishing for a betrothal to Robb as the late Lord Karstark did with his?

By the Old Gods, Not the New, yeah, I've already cited Jaime's skeptical assessment of fake!Arya. Later in the same chapter, to Brienne, he specifically notes the two discrepancies (eye color, age) that are generally speculated to have clued the northmen in to the Boltons' deception. Caught Mance Rayder's quote, too. Still appreciate the help!

Anyone been able to track down descriptions of the Umber forces at Winterfell in ADWD? Well, I guess I should probably stop being lazy and just page through all of Theon's chapters, then Asha's myself...

Lady Gwynhyfvar, Lady Sybelle being a party to secret communications can't be ruled out, I suppose, but I must admit she strikes me as having little interest in such affairs. Isn't the running of the keep essentially left in the hands of the steward and maester after Galbart and Robett head south? It's the steward who comes to Winterfell in ACOK for the audience with Ser Rodrik and Maester Luwin, not Lady Glover, which Bran takes as evidence that she's not the true ruler of Deepwood Motte. Are names ever given for the Glover steward and maester? All I can recall is that the steward lost a leg when Asha took the castle, and neither had a fun time under the ironborn occupation, lol.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

Asha "the sacrifice" ADwD:

The Braavosi smiled. “We’ve brought a gift for you.” He beckoned to the men behind him. “We had expected to find the king at Winterfell. This same blizzard has engulfed the castle, alas. Beneath its walls we found Mors Umber with a troop of raw green boys, waiting for the king’s coming. He gave us this.”

Theon TWoW sample chapter:

"As you will. Tell me, Theon, how many men did Mors Umber have with him at Winterfell?"

"None. No men." He grinned at his own wit. "He had boys. I saw them." Aside from a handful of half-crippled serjeants, the warriors that Crowfood had brought down from Last Hearth were hardly old enough to shave. "Their spears and axes were older than the hands that clutched them. It was Whoresbane Umber who had the men, inside the castle. I saw them too. Old men, every one." Theon tittered. "Mors took the green boys and Hother took the greybeards. All the real men went with the Greatjon and died at the Red Wedding. Is that what you wanted to know, Your Grace?"

[Julian Rayne]

I think the description of the Umber forces is from TWoW, not ADwD.

Edit: Never mind.

[Yeade]

Thanks, By the Old Gods, Not the New, Julian Rayne! Though now I'm in a bit of a pickle because sample chapters from TWOW are beyond the spoiler scope of my essay, lol. Well, perhaps I'll include the excerpt, anyways, carefully hidden and with an appropriate warning for the unwary.

On another note, have we finally run out of things to argue about in this thread? The regular posters (including me!) have maybe been too thorough in our analyses. ^^;;

In the interests of promoting new discussion, then, I'll resurrect my list of suggested topics from the GNC's fourth incarnation.

First, Heyo Winter Comin' asking about when the Boltons learn of Stannis's march on Winterfell reminded me that not much analysis has been done, at least in these GNC threads, about what Roose may or may not know. His motivations in betraying the Starks for the apparent reward of the rule of the North are hard to divine, and what he has planned as his next move, given that he's fully aware Manderly at the very least is looking to backstab him at the earliest chance, is equally mysterious.

tze proposed a characteristically brilliant alternative theory to the usual explanations that Roose is a self-serving opportunist. Whether Roose is purposely leading House Bolton to destruction for the sake of avenging Domeric's death on Ramsay or not, though, he probably still doesn't want to be around when the wrath of the other northern lords descends upon his hated bastard with extreme prejudice, lol. So, a quick and quiet exit stage right to the Dreadfort? Where he can expect to withstand a siege for years until either he dies or his enemies are forced to the negotiating table, unable to continue hostilities in the face of winter. Maybe slipping away while everyone's preoccupied with Stannis? Or does Roose await the outcome of that battle?

Second, I can't remember if the Winterfell murders have ever been discussed in relation to the GNC. Besides Little Walder's killer most likely being Big Walder, I honestly have no clue where to begin on this.

Finally, instead of us regulars being our usual obsessive-compulsive selves and intimidating the hell out of lurkers with our novel-length posts filled with endless minutia, lol, we can... take turns writing about how we think and/or hope the GNC will play out in TWOW? Its role in the ongoing northern storylines and impact on key characters like Stannis, Jon, Sansa, etc. as well as on events south. We can even try to predict our reactions should this pet theory of ours turn out to be wrong! I mean, doesn't that sound like great fun?

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Lady Gwynhyfvar, Lady Sybelle being a party to secret communications can't be ruled out, I suppose, but I must admit she strikes me as having little interest in such affairs. Isn't the running of the keep essentially left in the hands of the steward and maester after Galbart and Robett head south? It's the steward who comes to Winterfell in ACOK for the audience with Ser Rodrik and Maester Luwin, not Lady Glover, which Bran takes as evidence that she's not the true ruler of Deepwood Motte. Are names ever given for the Glover steward and maester? All I can recall is that the steward lost a leg when Asha took the castle, and neither had a fun time under the ironborn occupation, lol.

It's true that Bran notes that she sent her steward to Winterfell, but we should recall that at that time she was recently delivered of her youngest child. Bran may not have understood the implications of that (although it may have been mentioned?) but we should, lol. I don't think a post partum mother declining to make a journey should be taken as evidence that she isn't engaged in the protection of home and lands. She is a Locke by birth, which family we suspect has been involved from the start. I don't think we are given names for either the stewart or master... everything at Deepwood (including those individuals) is described as "Galbart Glover's" this and "Galbart Glover's" that, iirc. (Almost as if we're being directed towards one thing, or maybe away from something else?) In Asha's POV (ADwD, ch.26) a message is received from Ramsay Bolton at Moat Cailin:

Galbart Glover's master hovered expectantly at her elbow. "There will be no answer," she informed him.

"May I share these tidings with Lady Sybelle?"

"If it please you." Whether Sybelle Glover would find any joy in the fall of Moat Cailin, Asha could not say. Lady Sybelle all but lived in her godswood, praying for her children and for her husband's safe return. [...]

Asha shoved the letter into the maester's hands. "Here. Let her find some solace here if she can. You have my leave to go."

The master inclined his head and departed.

I feel, if this is the norm (Lady Sybelle + master secluded in godswood) we should be very curious about what is going on there besides praying. ;)