A Northern Conspiracy of Grand Proportions: Part V

[I am of the Night]

Why would they believe that Ned would lie about Jon if he was Brandon's son? Why would it make a difference to anyone by Barbery.

Also, a question, how popular do you think the Northern Conspiracy of Grand Proportions theory is? I've whiled away many a happy hour reading the threads, but I was surprised on a "What do you believe" thread the other day to read lots of scepticism.

I think people are just too afraid to believe it and get their hopes up.

Even worse, if the NCoGP is true but the Boltons smash it.

[I am of the Night]

It feels like the kind of thing the Boltons would do (if not openly). I feel that the others may take advantage of the chaos (do we know the timing ing/circumstances of the Skagos rebellion.)

However, the impression I get is that it has been a long time since most of the northern houses have considered defying Winterfel.

I just looked up wiki, 1st Blackfyre rebellion was 195AL-196AL. The Skagos rebellion was about 100 years ago. I'm thinking it's about the year 301-302 AL now. If, and that's a big if, the rebellions coincide, the Skagosi might have been BF supporters rather than just taking advantage of the turmoil. Could they be some of Vary's allies, rather than the Ryswells as Bran Vras suggests?

[intheswamp]

The Northern lords are definitely plotting against the Boltons and Freys. Even Lady Dustin hates them. She flatly tells the Freys at Winterfell that the northerners are out to get them and that the north remembers (I've always found it interesting that she makes a reference to Lady Hornwood eating her fingers when she rages at the Freys, thus tying the Boltons into it.) Lady Dustin also cared for her nephew Domeric that everyone suspects Ramsay poisoned. Common sense dictates that they have to know that the Boltons betrayed the Starks and helped in the butchering of thousands of northerners. They all hate Ramsay: For what he did to Lady Hornwood, his well known vile actions, his abuse of "Arya", etc...

The question is, is Jon at all a part of the plan?

On a similar note, I'd like to know if any northern houses backed the Blackfyres.

Egg thinks that the Starks "remained true", but there doesn't seem to be any mention of any Northern house actually participating on one side or the other, probably because they were dealing with the Skagosi Rebellion and the death of one or more Lord Starks.

I think the Northern houses didn't really care too much about the south. Even after bending the knee to the Targs, the Starks ruled pretty much like nothing changed. Also, the north is very different: They are First Men and Old God worshippers, deal with the worst of Winter, deal with Wildlings, and are probably used to the idea of the Starks being the boss.

[Addam of Hull]

The Northern lords are definitely plotting against the Boltons and Freys. Even Lady Dustin hates them. She flatly tells the Freys at Winterfell that the northerners are out to get them and that the north remembers (I've always found it interesting that she makes a reference to Lady Hornwood eating her fingers when she rages at the Freys, thus tying the Boltons into it.) Lady Dustin also cared for her nephew Domeric that everyone suspects Ramsay poisoned. Common sense dictates that they have to know that the Boltons betrayed the Starks and helped in the butchering of thousands of northerners. They all hate Ramsay: For what he did to Lady Hornwood, his well known vile actions, his abuse of "Arya", etc...

The question is, is Jon at all a part of the plan?

Egg thinks that the Starks "remained true", but there doesn't seem to be any mention of any Northern house actually participating on one side or the other, probably because they were dealing with the Skagosi Rebellion and the death of one or more Lord Starks.

I think the Northern houses didn't really care too much about the south. Even after bending the knee to the Targs, the Starks ruled pretty much like nothing changed. Also, the north is very different: They are First Men and Old God worshippers, deal with the worst of Winter, deal with Wildlings, and are probably used to the idea of the Starks being the boss.

My gut feeling is that Jon has to be part of the plan. Maybe not everyone's plan, since I definitely think it's possible that there are several different groups working to install different characters, but I think someone has included him in their plan. He's the easiest Stark to gain access to and, when the going gets tough, it's pretty clear that Jon's status as Ned's son overrides the taint of bastardy and his position as a member of the Watch. Alys demonstrates that for us, at least.

In a unified scenario, where all parties are working towards the same end and have access to the same information, I think Jon's an invaluable piece that they can not afford to ignore. Setting aside the issue of who is the actual Lord of Winterfell, the only Starks the North knows of the location of are Rickon and Jon, which means one of them is needed to rule and the other is needed as an heir. Rickon can't produce heirs for another eight to ten years, which means that as long as Arya, Sansa, and Bran remain missing, Jon's the only option left available as Rickon's heir (in the scenario where Rickon is crowned). Realistically, his presence is needed to ensure the future of the Stark line.

[I am of the Night]

I think the Northern houses didn't really care too much about the south. Even after bending the knee to the Targs, the Starks ruled pretty much like nothing changed. Also, the north is very different: They are First Men and Old God worshippers, deal with the worst of Winter, deal with Wildlings, and are probably used to the idea of the Starks being the boss.

Doesn't explain why the Skagosi rebelled.

[shearstone]

Doesn't explain why the Skagosi rebelled.

Judging by what Davos knows of Skagos and the southern opinion on the northerners in general, I'd be surprised if any petitioners for Daemon made their way to Skagos.

[BeWareOfMyHouse]

Speaking again about Barbrey Dustin, if she IS in on the conspiracy, it wouldn't necessarily surprise me. After all, the plot to kill Robb at the RW was a conspiracy only made possible by certain members of Robb's shaky alliance, primarily Roose the Goose and Walder Frey.

Robb only came to doubt Bolton's loyalty the very second he plunged his dagger into Robb's chest. I wonder what the probability is that there will be a sense of symmetry with Roose and Barbrey, with her doing the same to him.

Something like, "For you, Lord Leech, Winter has Come."

*STABBY STAB STAB*

[I am of the Night]

Judging by what Davos knows of Skagos and the southern opinion on the northerners in general, I'd be surprised if any petitioners for Daemon made their way to Skagos.

True, but until tWoW comes speculating is all we'ves got!

[Arthur Dayne's Honor]

Speaking again about Barbrey Dustin, if she IS in on the conspiracy, it wouldn't necessarily surprise me. After all, the plot to kill Robb at the RW was a conspiracy only made possible by certain members of Robb's shaky alliance, primarily Roose the Goose and Walder Frey.

Robb only came to doubt Bolton's loyalty the very second he plunged his dagger into Robb's chest. I wonder what the probability is that there will be a sense of symmetry with Roose and Barbrey, with her doing the same to him.

Something like, "For you, Lord Leech, Winter has Come."

*STABBY STAB STAB*

Nope, Jaime Lannister will find out about what Roose said to Robb as he killed him from LS. This will piss Jaime off and when he goes North to get to Rhaegars only living son, Jon, he will prove his loyalty first by approaching Roose as a friend and then stabbing him the chest whispering "Robb Stark sends his regards!"

The Kingslayer Slays the Kingslayer to Become the Kingmaker

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/97603-the-kingslayer-slays-the-kingslayer-to-become-the-kingmaker/

[Blutraven]

Nope, Jaime Lannister will find out about what Roose said to Robb as he killed him from LS. This will piss Jaime off and when he goes North to get to Rhaegars only living son, Jon, he will prove his loyalty first by approaching Roose as a friend and then stabbing him the chest whispering "Robb Stark sends his regards!"

The Kingslayer Slays the Kingslayer to Become the Kingmaker

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/97603-the-kingslayer-slays-the-kingslayer-to-become-the-kingmaker/

I'd prefer it to be The Greatjon or Blackfish, but as long is it's delivered with that line, I'll be happy.

[Arthur Dayne's Honor]

I'd prefer it to be The Greatjon or Blackfish, but as long is it's delivered with that line, I'll be happy.

Id be happy as well. But the only people saying that to Roose as he dies that would make sense would be Lady Stoneheart or Jaime.

[Little and Less]

Not sure if anyone knows, but have there been any Stark bastards that became Lord of Winterfell? I don't recall this mentioned by Old Nan or anyone from the Stark household.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Well there's the Bael the Bard story, but that seems to be more legendary than historical.

[Little and Less]

Thanks.

[Minstral]

Doesn't explain why the Skagosi rebelled.

Looking closely at the relations between those in the South and North can probably give a hint (though nothing more). There is a real divide in the relationship, yet from what we see the North and South speak the same languages. There may perhaps be a disdain amongst the North for all things southern, but it still doesn't change the fact that for some reason the North seems to have taken up the tongue of the Andals as well as a few other cultural aspects. And yet, the people of Skagos appear to hold to words from the old tongue in their titles/name for their houses and region that they live in. With this in mind, it is easy to glimpse a divide amongst the people of Skagos and the North at large. If there is, then it would fit in with a possible resurgence of Rickon.

[Musashisamurai]

Good catch about Theon. It's appropriate in a way because he sees much but is blind to a lot.

About Barbrey, you may be right. She has an understandable grudge against Ned, but supporting Roose? The flayed man lord? And with that disgusting son of his? I find it hard that any non-corrupt, non-avaricious noble would be drawn to the leech lord. While I'm not convinced she is dissimulating, if so she is doing a flawless job. And knowing that Roose is ultra-perceptive and good at reading people, she would have to if she's to fool him.

I bet the irony will be that later she thinks that Jon (who some theorize the GNC is rallying around) is the son of Ashara dayne-as many characters theorize-and brandon stark.

But yeah, theres a difference between hating the starks and loving the boltons, and its not like there were any problems before the war with her and WF. You'd think itd be more obvious, like with Walder fret and hoster Tully

[jarl the climber]

Why would they believe that Ned would lie about Jon if he was Brandon's son? Why would it make a difference to anyone by Barbery.

Also, a question, how popular do you think the Northern Conspiracy of Grand Proportions theory is? I've whiled away many a happy hour reading the threads, but I was surprised on a "What do you believe" thread the other day to read lots of scepticism.

It's bad manners to ask overmuch of the parentage of a mans bastard or so we have heard. People were talking about Jon's at one point and Ned put a stop to it. His being Brandon's son would be of importance because he was the older brother and that would give Jon the better claim. The only arguement against him would be that Jon is baseborn but his Mother in all other respects was of a high enough station to marry Brandon and bear him heirs. As far as Barbery goes, she the Widow of Barrowton and a Ryswell by birth, so her opinions carry weight with others. So Jon could serve in pinch if that is what is required to get Barberys support.

I think that things are brewing in the North but there is no master plan being implemented. You've got a dozen people trying to push the situation in a certain direction independently of each other. Something decisive will happen, Roose will win or be defeated and those who are left standing will have to come together and figure something out or the Civil War will continue in some form. Roose himself considers it as bickering over the spoils. He is well aware that people are plotting against him and that they might use Brandons, Rickons, Jons and even Sansas or Aryas claim against him. Some of these people have joined Stannis and some others are in Winterfell with him. It just seems like people are stating the obvious, that Roose has open and secret enemies in the North and probaly outside of it as well, which every informed person in the realm knows and that if these dissedents overthrow him, they might have different ideas about what comes next and some sort of consensus will have to be reached among them one way or another. Its an open revolt not a conspiracy.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I think Barbrey is lying about her grudge against Ned. She had a relative(unknown how clearly related) die at the TOJ but not once does she mention him. All she mentions is her husband who she likely didn't love because she was in love with Brandon. It just doesn't add up to me.

Her husband Lord Willam Dustin was the one that got wacked fighting for the Ned at the TOJ.

[Arthur Dayne's Honor]

Her husband Lord Willam Dustin was the one that got wacked fighting for the Ned at the TOJ.

Mark Ryswell died there as well

[Eira Seren]

Good catch about Theon. It's appropriate in a way because he sees much but is blind to a lot.

About Barbrey, you may be right. She has an understandable grudge against Ned, but supporting Roose? The flayed man lord? And with that disgusting son of his? I find it hard that any non-corrupt, non-avaricious noble would be drawn to the leech lord. While I'm not convinced she is dissimulating, if so she is doing a flawless job. And knowing that Roose is ultra-perceptive and good at reading people, she would have to if she's to fool him.

agreed. It's interesting that she only shows her hand after taking a tour of the crypt with Theon. I even wonder if Lady D might be helping the hooded man? I get the sense that they get along well, and that perhaps Roose has always had a bit of a thing for her, which would tend to blind him if she were pretending.

I think Barbrey is lying about her grudge against Ned. She had a relative(unknown how clearly related) die at the TOJ but not once does she mention him. All she mentions is her husband who she likely didn't love because she was in love with Brandon. It just doesn't add up to me.

If so, it would be another instance (like Blackwoods and Brackens) were the grudge/feud is played up in order to create a distraction from another purpose. In these instances, everyone involved in the deception has lost people at the RW.

Speaking again about Barbrey Dustin, if she IS in on the conspiracy, it wouldn't necessarily surprise me. After all, the plot to kill Robb at the RW was a conspiracy only made possible by certain members of Robb's shaky alliance, primarily Roose the Goose and Walder Frey.

Robb only came to doubt Bolton's loyalty the very second he plunged his dagger into Robb's chest. I wonder what the probability is that there will be a sense of symmetry with Roose and Barbrey, with her doing the same to him.

Something like, "For you, Lord Leech, Winter has Come."

*STABBY STAB STAB*

Except I think Roose senses that it's coming. Even though she doesn't say it to him, he turns quite pale when Lady D says, "The North remembers, Frey."