Arya's next step

[Ice Turtle]

I think that there is one important question that needs to be answered before predicting anything: Is Arya going to leave FM immediately or will she stay with them a little longer?

Personally I think that she will stay for a while. IMO she needs to learn how to change her face and she needs to be our POV in Braavos and what more a POV who is near important people. My little theory is that her next apprenticeship is going to be under the Black Pearl.

[Giorgio Corrado]

I think Arya will complete her trainning the problem I see is the whole timeline issue GRRM needs to reintroduce the timeline back into the books and the TV show. Arya's trainning is going to take some years not weeks added to the fact the actress nolonger looks like a child of 10 or 12years of age but more like a teen of 15 or 16.

[The Mountain That Flies]

She'll stick around for a bit, and just keep hiding indiscretions like this until she is either discovered or decides she has to leave.

[Elaena Targaryen]

I think that there is one important question that needs to be answered before predicting anything: Is Arya going to leave FM immediately or will she stay with them a little longer?

Personally I think that she will stay for a while. IMO she needs to learn how to change her face and she needs to be our POV in Braavos and what more a POV who is near important people. My little theory is that her next apprenticeship is going to be under the Black Pearl.

Great minds think alike Ice Turtle, lol. ;) (Just like we did with Izembaro, ha, ha) I just posted in the Mercy chapter thread;

The quote about the Black Pearl - "She was so lovely that the lamps seemed to burn brighter when she passed." - made me wonder if it was a 'glamor technique'? So maybe these world famous courtesans have more skills than we give them credit for :dunno: but if so Arya could possibly be spending some time with the Black Pearl next as, according to the Kindly Man, she does need to learn this art.

“Mummers change their faces with artifice,” the kindly man was saying, “and sorcerers use glamors, weaving light and shadow and desire to make illusions that trick the eye. These arts you shall learn, but what we do here goes deeper.

[MegaAIP]

after reading the Mercy chapter it would seem she is on the fast track back to westoros. I think she has a thirst for revenge and some training and now sees that home is where she needs to go.

[Winnief]

I think Arya is planning on staying with the FM...but soon she's going to get word that the party from KL includes the Master of Coin and has an "in" to the Red Keep and even Cersei. At which point, she's going to try to find a way to get "in" with that group, as a member so she can not only get home to Westeros, (which Bran may soon be urging her to do quickly anyway,) but also have access to some of those names on her list with her newfound skills...

[Needs More Salt]

Hey, newcomer here :) I've been a longtime lurker but recently registered.

As a preface, although I do enjoy reading some of the theories regarding this topic -- and even some of the wilder theories regarding different characters and potential plot twists -- I feel as if people are reading too far into Arya's character and some of the details. Not everything must unfold into a major branching storyline much like how not every character has a history nor will have an ending (something I believe Martin elaborated on in a couple of his speeches and interviews). At its heart, it's simply a story meant to be enjoyed, not surgically picked apart and analyzed ad nauseum.

Having said that, I feel like I have a few things to add that spurred my will to register (finally) and elaborate, all stemming from the recently released Arya chapter from The Winds of Winter:

I've noticed that people are drawing conclusions as to what will happen to Arya from her wolf dreams. I see Nymeria as a parallel to Arya's character. Arya, although typically seen as a lone wolf type of character (something I myself would ascribe to), has had several 'packs,' so to speak; from Hot Pie and Gendry to the Faceless Men to the Starks, she's rarely actually been truly alone. Nymeria, too, has always had a pack -- of varying sizes, but nonetheless a pack. Furthermore, I've never gotten the vibe that Nymeria ever truly needed a pack. Much like Arya, whichever group she finds herself with seems like it will be temporary and only there to serve the purpose of survival and/or training (and it's always both). Arya and Nymeria seem to really enjoy the hunt to the point that it's clearly more than just about survival but about nurturing a primal or even guttural instinct. Even still, drawing conclusions for Arya's future from Nymeria is something I'd find silly and not adhering to the books. Robb's wolf may have been killed along with Robb himself, but Sansa is still very much alive. One can make the argument that the death in Sansa's case isn't literal, but Robb's certainly was. Thus where the current parallel between Nymeria and Arya twists and turns may or may not be jointly decided. I feel we must consider the notion that these two tightly entwined yet vastly separated characters may have wholly independent outcomes.

I've also seen Arya referred to as being psychopathic, and this, too, is something I see as overly analytical of a single character while ignoring the whole. Sure, Arya killed a Bolton guard at Harrenhal (among others) but this doesn't make her psychopathic nor evil. In fact, Martin's world seems completely devoid of a single soul that can be seen as not having done something perceived as evil. Those that are faultless only appear to be because they aren't a central character. In a phrase, if Martin writes about them for longer than a few sentences then the chances are that something questionable will inevitably crop up. Murder, sex, backstabbing (sometimes literally), and betrayal are to be expected in the Game of Thrones. No one is exempt when even minor lapses in judgment can have massive, and often times deadly consequences. Therefore I find some of the perceptions of Arya to be ungrounded given the story and its characters are defined in endless shades of gray. Taking a single step in another direction to consider a missed detail (Do you feel that bad about a Bolton dying? or is it just because he's a Bolton means he's inherently evil?) can have a huge change on one's feelings towards a certain character.

With regards to the recent chapter, I don't think there's enough evidence to state that the key has any sort of significance. Likewise, The Black Pearl may have been there just to accompany and "treat" an envoy. There just isn't enough to claim that there's something bigger going on here. However, I do feel that Arya took it upon herself to kill Raff specifically. She noted all of the guards and ultimately picked the one that coincides with her own list. Upon reading it, I got the notion that Mercy was to be killed that night, but whether it was supposed to draw in the King's Landing envoy or not, I'm not sure. It's clear that Arya has been with the mummer group for at least a little while as part of her training, and that night bore a certain importance. The murder was likely Mercy's murder, but I don't feel as though she was on a mission to cause a ruckus because of how her first murder for the Faceless Men occurred. When she was asked to give 'the gift' to the old man, it was ultimately her own choice as to how to do it. The Kindly Man had given her the tools to do so -- training in poison and stalking -- but it was Arya who derived and executed the plan. Although the prior killing of Dareon wasn't an endorsed assassination, it showed that Arya is also willing to give 'the gift' as she so chooses. Arya could have been with the mummer group as part of her training and that night could have simply been her last. Thus Mercy's murder, whether it was to be blamed on the envoy or not, is simply Arya concluding that part of her training and/or mission. Whether her history with Raff coupled with her independent nature is what led to the murder (Dareon) or whether this was part of a plot by the Faceless Men (the old man), I'm not sure. Both are equally as likely, in my opinion.

Has anyone noticed just how skilled and calculated Arya is? She didn't just kill Raff the Sweetling, she used sex and innocence as a weapon to lure him in, crippled him, manipulated him perfectly, and then left behind an organized mess of a crime scene with no body to be found, that can explain both of their disappeareances. The one niggling problem I have is this:

“Mercy, Mercy, Mercy,” she sang sadly. A foolish, giddy girl she’d been, but good hearted. She would miss her, and she would miss Daena and the Snapper and the rest, even Izembaro and Bobono. This would make trouble for the Sealord and the envoy with the chicken on his chest, she did not doubt.

She would think about that later, though. Just now, there was no time. I had best run. Mercy still had some lines to say, her first lines and her last, and Izembaro would have her pretty little empty head if she were late for her own rape.

The final two paragraphs imply that she's running back so as to not miss 'her own rape.' Killing Raff and faking Mercy's death in one swoop won't work if she has to run back to participate in the play as she'll inevitably be spotted by the other guard who saw Raff scamper off with her. I don't think Mercy's death and/or disappearance occurs until after (or perhaps during?) the play. The 'I had best run' implies she's heading back, not disposing of the body and running away for good. It seems to me that Mercy still has a role to play in the events about to unfold, even if it's only finishing the play.

The above may seem like verbose digression, but it really depends on how we're phrasing the question. Is it the next step following this newly released TWoW chapter? or is it the next step after Arya abandons her Mercy persona? These two aren't necessarily the same questions. Furthermore, I feel that in order to examine Arya's potential plot twists in the coming books requires one to understand the character. Arya, for all her development and hardships, seems to be the same character -- the same shade of gray, if you will :P

[Ice Turtle]

The above may seem like verbose digression, but it really depends on how we're phrasing the question. Is it the next step following this newly released TWoW chapter? or is it the next step after Arya abandons her Mercy persona? These two aren't necessarily the same questions.

Mercy is going to recite her lines, she is going to get "raped" and then is is going to die. I am 99% sure that Arya won't be Mercy in her next chapter. To ask differently what will be the content of the next Arya chapter, her travel to Westeros, her lending in Riverlands or KL or more time in Braavos?

[Giorgio Corrado]

I am wondering if the Arya chapters will cover a certain time frame meaning when Arya was 12yrs old and then the next chapter would cover Arya's life at 13yrs of age and so on so on until GRRM desides that Arya will reach a certain age where she completes her trainning and makes her way home?

[Brother Seamus]

after reading the Mercy chapter it would seem she is on the fast track back to westoros. I think she has a thirst for revenge and some training and now sees that home is where she needs to go.

this is what I think, for numerous interrelated reasons. I say she takes her first step toward home within no more than 2 Arya chapters following Mercy. The Mercy chapter says she's going to go through with performing her role in the play (which will also allow us to see the play-within-the-novel). That will be the next Arya chapter. my bet is she's left the FM and on her way home by the end of that chapter; if not that one, the next.

[Phonzadellika]

I believe that the FM might kick her out because of the Raff kill.

Let's say that she was playing the part of Shae in the in the play and the writer made an assumption that Shae was killed after the trial...Mercy could be referring to missing her own rape and murder in the play and that there was not actual FM mission going on which she was a part of.

So, she goes back to the HOBAW and says 'Hi I'm done I've learned everything I can' and KM says 'uhh...why'd you stab that guard?' and subsequently boots her out because he decides that she's more trouble than she's worth. She gets her face back and gets put out onto the street. Meets up with Massey, goes North. Uses mummer talents to bring the justice.

Thematically, I don't see that she has a lot of time left at HOBAW. She's either going to get sent on a FM mission, leave on her own, or get kicked out. I think that she wants to stick around as long as she can but she's becoming a liability.

[Whitering]

I believe that the FM might kick her out because of the Raff kill.

Let's say that she was playing the part of Shae in the in the play and the writer made an assumption that Shae was killed after the trial...Mercy could be referring to missing her own rape and murder in the play and that there was not actual FM mission going on which she was a part of.

So, she goes back to the HOBAW and says 'Hi I'm done I've learned everything I can' and KM says 'uhh...why'd you stab that guard?' and subsequently boots her out because he decides that she's more trouble than she's worth. She gets her face back and gets put out onto the street. Meets up with Massey, goes North. Uses mummer talents to bring the justice.

Thematically, I don't see that she has a lot of time left at HOBAW. She's either going to get sent on a FM mission, leave on her own, or get kicked out. I think that she wants to stick around as long as she can but she's becoming a liability.

Well, I do not think they would kick her out, a high born girl that doesn't mind wading around in the muck and is one of the hardest workers they've probably seen in a while that can also kill, and kill in ways nobody sees who did it? I mean, all they did last time she went off book is jump her training forward.

If Izembaro reports back saying that she's a fantastic actress, or maybe that's not how it works, maybe someone was shadowing her to see how fully she dove into the Mercy personality can report back saying she was great.

Maybe you are right, but throwing out candidates like her because she's got a list of like 10 people she wants to kill seems wrong, they should just kill everyone on her list to get it over with.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Great minds think alike Ice Turtle, lol. ;) (Just like we did with Izembaro, ha, ha) I just posted in the Mercy chapter thread;

The quote about the Black Pearl - "She was so lovely that the lamps seemed to burn brighter when she passed." - made me wonder if it was a 'glamor technique'? So maybe these world famous courtesans have more skills than we give them credit for :dunno: but if so Arya could possibly be spending some time with the Black Pearl next as, according to the Kindly Man, she does need to learn this art.

“Mummers change their faces with artifice,” the kindly man was saying, “and sorcerers use glamors, weaving light and shadow and desire to make illusions that trick the eye. These arts you shall learn, but what we do here goes deeper.

This

After all, Braavos is famous for its Bravos, Mummers, Courtesans, assassins, bankers and priests (given its unparalleled religious freedom)

Arya already got training from a Bravo. She already knows mummer´s tricks,. Is training to be a Faceless (wo)man. And her plot line seems to be linked with the Iron Bank.

Learning glamors from a courtesan sounds like the next step.

BTW the kindly man already offered Arya to send her with the black pearl.

“You believe this is the only place for you.” It was as if he’d heard her thoughts. “You are wrong in that. You would find softer service in the household of some merchant. Or would you sooner be a courtesan, and have songs sung of your beauty? Speak the word, and we will send you to the Black Pearl or the Daughter of the Dusk.

[Giorgio Corrado]

I don't think the FM will kick Arya out she is too valuable of an asset in trainning once she completes her trainning because who Arya family is she can play a very important part in the establishment of a new government. Arya can be placed in the service of Stannis or Dany in the hunt for the Iron Throne as the eyes and ears of the FM and IB.

[A Bong of Ice and Fire]

I imagine that Arya will have to abandon the FM and high-tail it out of Braavos somehow. There will be no way to cover up her murder of Raff, as the other guard can finger Mercy in Raff's disappearance.

The FM will know what she did, and they won't be happy. She's clearly not and will never be "no one"; Arya's spirit and her connection to Nymeria ensure that.

I think she's got enough training now, and her warging powers are growing. So she can head back to Westeros and start making the bodies hit the floor!

[Littlefinger's dagger]

One possible outcome:

The FM tell her: last chance, we're sending you to Tobho Mott in KL. Go off book again and you're on your own.

At least that way she's already where she's most likely to ask to be sent if she blows it again, given that it's her most target-rich environment.

Likely, I don't know, but possible.

[Big Daddy]

I think that in Arya's very next chapter, she will be on a boat back to Westeros having infiltrated that company. In flashback she'll reminisce about how she left. She'll either be on a mission for the FM, or she'll be thinking about how she got kicked out or quit.

Then she'll pop up in a later chapter in Westeros in her new disguise. Maybe not even her own POV.

[Slayer of Lies]

Fun, speculative topic, OP. Thanks for starting it!

I just wanted to bring up – in addition to all the in-story possibilities – what feels to me like the “mechanical necessity” of keeping Arya in Braavos for at least a chapter or two.

First, there’s the aftermath of Raff’s murder which would seem to require the presence of a POV, or else all that time with the KM, Izembaro, Brusco, etc. would seem a little empty.

Secondly, Massey’s on his way to Braavos post Theon I with no other POVs to shed light on his situation. (Side note: being sent to Braavos in Theon I would appear to eliminate Massey’s time in Braavos as a prologue possibility, which is probably for the best anyway).

Further, the other four POVs that are in Essos (Dany, Tyrion, Victarion and Barristan) would seem tied to the Meereenese arc, leaving Arya to be the only POV in Braavos until “it’s time” to leave.

Finally, Arya herself would seem to leave us with a “cliffhanger clue” that she’s staying for a bit, then leaving, per the last two lines of the chapter. In short, despite the fact that she’s running back to finish the play, she’ll think on the trouble Raff’s murder will cause Harys and the Sealord (something she would only care about if she was staying in Braavos) “later.”

As to what she does immediately next, I think the door is fairly open, but if learning the art of mummery/acting via Izembaro was another training mission like hawking seafood as Cat under Brusco’s tutelage, then she would ostensibly return to the KM for further direction, despite the fact that she committed another unsanctioned kill (if we can put Dareon on a similar level of “breaking the rules” as Raff, after which she returned to the HoB&W in AFFC).

As for the KM, I’m continually plagued by the closely matching descriptions of the KM and BR (as indicated in this post and elsewhere), and so I tend to liken the KM’s significance in Arya’s arc to BR’s significance in Bran’s, which might be another indicator that Arya can’t simply leave without at least one more brush with the KM.

I do think, though, that the KM’s line about sending Arya to the Black Pearl or the Daughter of the Dusk (quoted above) has a ring of “doing so will mean you have admitted you’re not cut out to be a FM.”

So perhaps Arya will go to the BP of her own volition, and perhaps even that’s how she interfaces with Massey, but – despite Arya’s murder of Raff not being part of her assignment to train under Izembaro – I think it’s fair to expect Arya to return to the KM prior to leaving to Braavos, and possibly even in her next chapter.

[House Ross]

I'm wondering about her marks she spots in the audience. Probably her next step is taking this unknown couple out.

She could also be punished for killing Raff.

[Winnief]

I think that in Arya's very next chapter, she will be on a boat back to Westeros having infiltrated that company. In flashback she'll reminisce about how she left. She'll either be on a mission for the FM, or she'll be thinking about how she got kicked out or quit.

Then she'll pop up in a later chapter in Westeros in her new disguise. Maybe not even her own POV.

I really, REALLY hope that's how it plays...we could use some more fast paced plotting again.