Is Roose as smart as we have been lead to believe?

[Stannatic]

First off, hello to everyone. Been lurking for awhile and finally decided to join the other night. Good to be here =)

Now on to the topic at hand. One of the things that has been bugging me for awhile is the notion that Roose Bolton is some Palpatine-esque mastermind that destroyed his Houses ancient rivals and seized power in one fell swoop. Here are some points I have against him:

1)The Red Wedding

How did Roose think he'd ever escape this ugly affair with his image untarnished with as big of a role as he played? He murdered Robb Stark in plain sight and even if most people were sworn to secrecy and what not, that IS the kind of thing that tends to get around no matter what. With a land that is already going to be seethign after losing the war, and with the long memories of northmen, did Roose seriously think he would have anything resembling a long and peaceful reign?

2)Warden of the North

Obviously after the RW, Roose got a lofty new position as Warden of the North. House Stark was seemingly destroyed, Winterfell put to the torch and everything else Boltons had ever strived for. But surely he must have guessed his Houses new position would not last, not with the Tyrion-Sansa marriage. Not even with the Ramsay-f!Arya match. If Roose really were as smart as he likes to think as he is, he would have seen that obviously he wasn't a part of Tywin's long game. Winterfell being rebuilt and the North being rulled by Stark-Lannister babies doesn't sound like something he'd approve of, either.

3)Ramsay

My last point is my shortest, but I think it's worth pointing out that Roose places alot of faith in a wildcard like Ramsay for the survival of House Bolton and it's holdings and titles. Smart as Ramsay may be, he's also a total loon.

So, I really don't think Roose is at all smart in the long-term. What do you think?

[Robb_Warged]

Because of the Red Wedding his continued success really depends on being pals with who sits the IT and a North that is too weak to stand up to him

Once a king on the IT calls him out on the RW, he's in a completely different position.

[MyLittleFinger]

One major issue to his claim on the North is Stannis and I hardly think anybody could have figured he would sail to the Wall, crush the wildlings and then decide to march on Winterfell with all the rallied clansmen. Manderly and what was left of the Umber forces that decided to side with Stannis could never match the Bolton/Frey/Dustin pact.

No Stannis showing up, no real threats to his immediate rule in the North.

[The Holy Goat]

I do indeed think that Roose is highly intelligent, one of the most intelligent individuals in the series. The problem I see here is that you apparently assume his goal is to 'win' the Game. I personally do not think that is the case. Roose is not Tywin, Varys, Olenna or Littlefinger, all of whome play the game to get out on top and satisfy their ambitions. Roose... Roose is a sadist, through and through, and his goals seem more in line with 'staying' in the Game, or 'playing' the Game. A man who want to watch the world burn. Like Gregor or Ramsay or Vargo Hoat he plays with men, only far more subtly.

[Game Of Thrones]

Roose wants to see Ned.

[Janicia]

I agree. I really wonder what Roose is thinking. Butterbumps has some pretty convincing arguments that Roose does actually have a sane plan to survive this whole thing and remain in charge - basically arguing that Roose has been masterminding all sorts of things to set up dominos just right so that events always work out to Roose's advantage, but even if Stannis wasn't in the North, Roose would be in serious trouble with all of the other houses determined to destroy his house. Stannis' presence in the north has so far been helping Roose by keeping a large portion of the Northerners bunched up together under Roose's supervision.

Some people think Roose might be supernatural/a vampire, in which case he might not worry too much about little things like everybody wanting him dead and Ramsay being such a liability (since he's planning to kill Ramsay and take over his body). I dunno, if he is a vampire why did he wait until now to act and why is a vampire happy being Lord Bolton? And Roose being a vampire would be hard to write as a not-terrible plot development.

I kind of like the idea that Bloodraven has been whispering at Roose for years and promising him things. So Roose is doing these strange things because he thinks he is a champion of the Old Gods and has supernatural support. It seems like Bloodraven wants to intervene in the world (all that squacking at Jon through Mormont's raven), but we haven't seen Bloodraven achieving much beyond getting Bran to the cave. So maybe Bloodraven has more pieces in play than we know about, like a northern lord that obeys him.

[Frances Bean Corbray]

[Pure speculation and inference incoming, take the appropriate grains of salt]

Roose is very intelligent. However, deep down he has the same irrational violent impulses we see in Ramsay (who had to get it from somewhere, after all).

Look at the story he tells about how he met Ramsay's mom. That's not the cold, cautious, deliberate Roose we've come to know. That was a very impulsive, hot-blooded, "See, Want, Take" moment.

He leeches compulsively to "purge the bad blood". Or, in other words, to keep himself from flying off the handle. He's come with a way to manage his madness, so to speak, so most of the time he is able to think clearly and let that intelligence rule him. But every once in a while the CRAZY has to come out. In this moments where he's ruled by his emotions (and psycho impulses) he can do some unintelligent things.

Being so close to the scene of the crime that is the RW, ostensibly being on Robb's side yet escaping unscathed (and being an in-law of House Frey) may well prove to be one of them. Hilarious and in-keeping-with-Northern-tradition as it surely was for him to "Swing The Sword" on Robb Stark after "Passing The Sentence" i.e. organizing the RW and selling Robb out in general.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Personally, I think Ramsay drove him to the Red Wedding.

Straight up until Ramsay killing "Bran" and "Rickon" and later the attack on Ser Rodrik, House Bolton has done nothing that can't be explained away, playing both sides of the field.

But Ramsay did. Without a way to communicate with Roose beforehand. And he has drawn House Bolton in. Now the Starks must go before Robb learns of it, whatever the risk.

[butterbumps!]

First off, hello to everyone. Been lurking for awhile and finally decided to join the other night. Good to be here =)

Now on to the topic at hand. One of the things that has been bugging me for awhile is the notion that Roose Bolton is some Palpatine-esque mastermind that destroyed his Houses ancient rivals and seized power in one fell swoop. Here are some points I have against him:

1)The Red Wedding

How did Roose think he'd ever escape this ugly affair with his image untarnished with as big of a role as he played? He murdered Robb Stark in plain sight and even if most people were sworn to secrecy and what not, that IS the kind of thing that tends to get around no matter what. With a land that is already going to be seethign after losing the war, and with the long memories of northmen, did Roose seriously think he would have anything resembling a long and peaceful reign?

2)Warden of the North

Obviously after the RW, Roose got a lofty new position as Warden of the North. House Stark was seemingly destroyed, Winterfell put to the torch and everything else Boltons had ever strived for. But surely he must have guessed his Houses new position would not last, not with the Tyrion-Sansa marriage. Not even with the Ramsay-f!Arya match. If Roose really were as smart as he likes to think as he is, he would have seen that obviously he wasn't a part of Tywin's long game. Winterfell being rebuilt and the North being rulled by Stark-Lannister babies doesn't sound like something he'd approve of, either.

3)Ramsay

My last point is my shortest, but I think it's worth pointing out that Roose places alot of faith in a wildcard like Ramsay for the survival of House Bolton and it's holdings and titles. Smart as Ramsay may be, he's also a total loon.

So, I really don't think Roose is at all smart in the long-term. What do you think?

1. Roose isn't trying to win friends. He's trying to destroy his competition, taking out the heads of each house one at a time. That's why he's luring them all to Winterfell like this. I don't really think he's looking to rule by diplomatic consensus here.

2. If he manages total submission of North, who's really going to be around on the IT to challenge him come spring? And, as a side note, who says he's not making moves to that end as well. His pal Qyburn is the master of whispers now.

3. I'm quite cautious about seeing Rams as a loose cannon/ liability. Rams is actually on a pretty tight leash; he's very obedient to Roose (which tells us that when he does these crazy things, he's being enabled to/ sanctioned by Roose). I think it's more like the way Tywin puts Gregor in the front seat, and then tries to distance himself from Gregor's enormities publicly. Only difference is, I think Roose is trying to test Rams to replace him as Lord of the Dreadfort. I kind of think there's a "most dangerous game" thing going on with this.

[Dolorous22]

I don't believe so no. He's a calculated opportunist but his goals don't seem too obvious. The conversation he had with Theon/Reek gave me the impression he doesn't expect to live that long. His allies seem dubious (especially the Freys) and his enemies are numerous. I don't believe we truly understand his motives. All seems a bit desperate otherwise.

[butterbumps!]

I don't believe so no. He's a calculated opportunist but his goals don't seem too obvious. The conversation he had with Theon/Reek gave me the impression he doesn't expect to live that long. His allies seem dubious (especially the Freys) and his enemies are numerous. I don't believe we truly understand his motives. All seems a bit desperate otherwise.

The conversation he has with Reek isn't some truth-saying confessional. He's trying to pretend he's a helpless victim of Rams too (and therefore, a kind of ally to Theon) in order to determine whether Theon can be used in the wedding and trusted amongst the Northmen. As in, if any Northmen try to cozy up to Theon, showing him kindness at any point to try to get him to turn on the Boltons (or confess who burned Winterfell/ killed the Stark boys), will Theon betray them. I think that passage deserves a cautious reading, and the part about not living that long shouldn't maybe be taken at face value.

[Dolorous22]

The conversation he has with Reek isn't some truth-saying confessional. He's trying to pretend he's a helpless victim of Rams too (and therefore, a kind of ally to Theon) in order to determine whether Theon can be used in the wedding and trusted amongst the Northmen. As in, if any Northmen try to cozy up to Theon, showing him kindness at any point to try to get him to turn on the Boltons (or confess who burned Winterfell/ killed the Stark boys), will Theon betray them. I think that passage deserves a cautious reading, and the part about not living that long shouldn't maybe be taken at face value.

Of course, it's how you interpret it. I always saw it as, Bolton confiding in a very broken man. And why not? Nobody likes or will listen to Theon. He's been alienated from everyone and most if not all Northmen would sooner gut him than listen to his tails. He's a turncloack and a kinslayer. If there's anyone in the whole damn book he cant let slip a few secrets to it's Theon.

If Roose and Ramsey are playing with Theon, even allowing him to escape to further their insidious schemes, then Roose is a 100% bonefied genius.

I think Ramsey is a "sword without a hilt" and Roose needs him to destabilize the North. He cannot control him fully but without him he wouldn't be able to accomplish his goals. It's probably a good time to mention that I see Roose as equally as suicidal as Manderly. He's sat in what I see as the most dangerous spot in all of Westeros when he could hold up in the DF with FArya. It isn't beyond possibility that he is eagerly awaiting the arrival of the 'others' and or needs to occupy WF for that very reason. If you are a military strategist, now is not the time to take the North. In fact, it's literally the worst time.

[butterbumps!]

Of course, it's how you interpret it. I always saw it as, Bolton confiding in a very broken man. And why not? Nobody likes or will listen to Theon. He's been alienated from everyone and most if not all Northmen would sooner gut him than listen to his tails. He's a turncloack and a kinslayer. If there's anyone in the whole damn book he cant let slip a few secrets to it's Theon.

Roose starts the conversation with a lesson in talking like a peasant ("it's m'lord"). Which means he's coaching Theon on how to be a convincing nobody servant. Then he tests Theon. Then when they arrive at Barrowton to see Lady Dustin, he introduces Theon as Theon (not left as some random servant), which tells us that had Theon failed his loyalty test, he'd have not been introduced as "Theon," and instead hidden off as a servant, rendered useless to their purpose. Basically, Roose is testing Rams' "good work," and seeing if Theon needs more "training" to be useful. If not just killed as totally useless.

Also, I'm not so sure Roose is exactly immune from kinslaying. There's that whole issue of his dead sons buried under the Dreadfort. The ones that can't be pinned on Rams.

[Primalsplit]

I didn't find a better theory other than the Vampire Bolton theory. As crazy as it might sound, it seems to make the most sense. Roose/Ramsay eyes, regular leechings, motives behind actions... nearly everything fits the best.

[Fat Mac]

I think Roose is very intelligent. If it wasn't for Stannis or secret Stark heirs, there'd be no one to rally behind in the North except for Roose. Which meant that if things went differently, the Northmen probably wouldn't dare challenge him until spring. By then he might have made a game plan for keeping power.

[Loic]

Roose took a gamble that it's starting to backfire, but since he's already in there's no choice but keep playing with the cards he has.

Back then he had no way to know that Bran and Rickon were actually still alive, no idea that the other Northerns may eventually happen to know that there were still Stark heirs and Tywin was supposed to stay on command instead of Cersei.

[PirateVergo]

No he is not.

Seriously all he did was outsmarting a 15 year old kid.

[Dr. Pepper]

Of course, it's how you interpret it. I always saw it as, Bolton confiding in a very broken man. And why not? Nobody likes or will listen to Theon. He's been alienated from everyone and most if not all Northmen would sooner gut him than listen to his tails. He's a turncloack and a kinslayer. If there's anyone in the whole damn book he cant let slip a few secrets to it's Theon.

In addition to what bumps! mentioned above about this scene, Roose had also prepared Lady Dustin for the possibility that Ramsay would not release Theon. Theon's responses to Roose's interview determined whether or not he's be introduced to Lady Dustin as Theon or just passed off as a random servant.

[aryagonnakill#2]

I believe the OP has missed some of the subtleties that went down at the red wedding and also Lady Dustins convo with Theon in the Crypts. Lady Dustin tells Theon that Roose never intended to stay allied with Tywin and that may be because he properly read Tywin and knew Tywin had no such plans either. Dustin says Roose was going to clear out the Ironborn and eventually declare himself king in the north. I think he intended on his alliance with the Freys helping him more than his alliance to the Lannisters.

Roose is now married to Walda, and it is Frey reinforces he brought back north with him not Lannisters. If we look at how Tywin intended to take control of the North threw Sansa and Tyrion, I think it is clear why Tywin was surprised to get "2 wolf pelts" after the red wedding, he wanted Catlyn alive either to marry to Baelish or himself. Marrying Catlyn could have provided LF with the legitimacy he needed, or as I said Tywin.

Roose then expected to have a whole winter to deal with everything, a winter where neither the Iron Isles, or the North could be conquered.

[The Emerald Knight]

Roose was just given opportunities which he's made use of. Though ultimately his lack of likability and his very clear betrayal of the North by helping to kill Robb and a bunch of his bannermen will lead to him being isolated. Nobody can rule a realm for long if their bannermen don't like them. Maybe if Bolton had dragons he'd be able to coax submission through fear but right now even he has wounds to lick and he's stuck in a ruined Winterfell with one army moving at him, an unknown assassin in the castle and nearly all the lords of the North plotting to have him killed.

A ruler has to inspire loyalty. Fear and intimidation are good short term ways, but if your vassals love you like the Northmen loved Eddard and Robb then you're going to have a much easier time ruling, especially in Westeros where everyone's got a plan to kill someone.