Is Roose as smart as we have been lead to believe?

[Petyr Patter]

Basically, Roose discovered that it was easily to get people who think you are allies killed. Either by killing them yourself, or by sending them on suicide missions.

So, he kept getting his allies killed, to the point where he was the strongest figure in the North.

Is this smart? It isn't clear. On one hand, it apparently worked, because he has the biggest army in the North and a dominant position over his rivals. On the other hand, he killed his allies. Those are the people you need to count on when times get tough.

More importantly, people will catch on. It is pretty hard to betray somebody when you have a very long history of betraying people. And Roose has never won a battle without a heavy dose of treachery.

On another note, for those with a lot of time on their hand, check out this podcast discussing the complete political situation in the North: http://bryndenbfish.wordpress.com/2014/08/26/history-of-westeros-battle-of-ice-part-2-coming-live-at-1pm-est-on-8302014/ .

[Ramsay Gimp]

I interpreted the "Jaime Lannister sends his regards" as an ironic example of Jaime trying to be decent and it having unintended terrible consequences. The last time Jaime was with Roose, he assumed that Roose was still loyal to Robb, and when Robb comes up in conversation Jaime asks Roose to give him his regards. When Roose does so, perhaps as a joke, perhaps just because he remembered he said he would at the last minute and realized this was his last chance, Catelyn hears this and it just intensifies her hatred for Jaime right before she dies.

This is why I think the show made a big mis-step changing the line to "The Lannisters send their regards". The point of the line, I thought, was that Roose was actually relaying genuinely felt well-wishes from a former enemy right before killing him, not trying to tell Robb that the Lannisters were behind it.

You think Jaime had any good-will toward Robb Stark at that point? Plus he knew Roose was at least somewhat disloyal, or else Roose wouldn't have released him in the first place

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I interpreted the "Jaime Lannister sends his regards" as an ironic example of Jaime trying to be decent and it having unintended terrible consequences. The last time Jaime was with Roose, he assumed that Roose was still loyal to Robb, and when Robb comes up in conversation Jaime asks Roose to give him his regards. When Roose does so, perhaps as a joke, perhaps just because he remembered he said he would at the last minute and realized this was his last chance, Catelyn hears this and it just intensifies her hatred for Jaime right before she dies.

This is why I think the show made a big mis-step changing the line to "The Lannisters send their regards". The point of the line, I thought, was that Roose was actually relaying genuinely felt well-wishes from a former enemy right before killing him, not trying to tell Robb that the Lannisters were behind it.

No, he doesn't. He knows that Roose plans treachery and they basically discuss terms for it.

[The Fourth Head]

I think a lot of people assume little will change come winter, that peoples' preferences will still matter, that noones plans really factor in winter, and that the power games will continue as normal with a bit of snow on the ground. From here, we form a projection of how dumb or smart someone has been.

BB puts it beautifully- Roose has gathered all the lords and ladies and doesn't intend ruling by consensus. To take this further, whether Manderley or Locke would prefer a Stark leader or a Bolton leader is moot when the food runs out and starvation sets in. At that moment, survival comes first.

As macabre as it sounds, a "sacrifice" to the gods, "drawing lots" or a leader choosing where the designated source of "food" will come from may be the only way of surviving winter. For those who can't hack it they will be the first to go. In those conditions, the RW will be a distant summers picnic, and a strong leader will be needed. If a Manderley or Locke, or a Dustin or Ryswell doen't want the responsibility, or doesn't have the stomach for leading under those conditions, then I guess Roose could even call himself King. If this was Lord of the Flies, I think Winter would signal the end of Ralph's natural reign and the beginning of Jack's. Indeed, Wyman has already led with the amuse' bouche' - they are all tainted already.

[Taenqyrhae]

You think Jaime had any good-will toward Robb Stark at that point? Plus he knew Roose was at least somewhat disloyal, or else Roose wouldn't have released him in the first place

I wasn't sure that Roose knew that the prisoner exchange that Catelyn was doing was against the will of Robb. I saw it as him at least pretending to be loyal to the mother of his liege lord.

[mb2518]

Jaime didn't know that the Red Wedding was coming, but, he figures out that Bolton was planning something during their meeting.

[Minstral]

I wasn't sure that Roose knew that the prisoner exchange that Catelyn was doing was against the will of Robb. I saw it as him at least pretending to be loyal to the mother of his liege lord.

He lets Jaime go while keeping a hold of Brienne. He outright states that the exchange was against the wishes of Robb, so he makes sure to let it be known that he is not doing it for Cat.

[Taenqyrhae]

He lets Jaime go while keeping a hold of Brienne. He outright states that the exchange was against the wishes of Robb, so he makes sure to let it be known that he is not doing it for Cat.

OK, it's been a long time since I read that so I must have remembered it wrong. Part of my point still stands, though - there was no animosity from Jaime towards Robb at that point, nor did he know that Roose was actually going to kill Robb, just thought that Roose was probably going to switch allegiances. Roose relaying Jaime's message did give the inaccurate impression that Jaime was behind the Red Wedding. Of course, maybe he did say that for Catelyn's benefit, because the plan was originally to keep her alive before she started tearing her own face apart.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

OK, it's been a long time since I read that so I must have remembered it wrong. Part of my point still stands, though - there was no animosity from Jaime towards Robb at that point, nor did he know that Roose was actually going to kill Robb, just thought that Roose was probably going to switch allegiances. Roose relaying Jaime's message did give the inaccurate impression that Jaime was behind the Red Wedding. Of course, maybe he did say that for Catelyn's benefit, because the plan was originally to keep her alive before she started tearing her own face apart.

True, but Roose knew that Jaime knew that Roose intended to switch sides. They negotiated about that in regards to Jaime's dismemberment. He could interpret Jaime's throwaway comment as the order to kill Robb.

[mvd10]

Im not sure where I read it, but somewhere I read that Roose didn't give a shit about his legacy. All Roose thinks about is Roose, and not house Bolton. Currently Roose is warden of the north and he thinks he will die as warden of the north, he probably doesn't care if Ramsay fucks everything up when he is death. He knows his position is frail, but than again, he probably is about 50-55 now and probably doesn't expect living another 15 years, so he thinks he will die as a warden of the north and Ramsay will have to deal with the real shit. But he does not know about Manderly's plans, so his demise might be sooner than he expects.

[Taenqyrhae]

True, but Roose knew that Jaime knew that Roose intended to switch sides. They negotiated about that in regards to Jaime's dismemberment. He could interpret Jaime's throwaway comment as the order to kill Robb.

I seriously doubt that. Roose was already working with Tywin on planning the Red Wedding, and Roose knew that Jaime was not in contact with Tywin during that time. Why would he expect an order to kill Robb to come from Jaime, and why would it come in the form of a pleasantry instead of "I'd like for you to kill Robb Stark"?

I think at this point Jaime was already trying to be a more honorable person, and what reason would he have to hate Robb? He wasn't treated cruelly in his captivity, they had fought in battle but I don't think there was any personal animosity from Jaime towards Robb. I think his "give my regards" was nothing other than what it was on the surface…a small politeness from one noble to another that Roose allowed to be misinterpreted, out of a sense of humor or cruelty.

[James Arryn]

I always took Jaime's comment as another swipe at the world and all things in it, including Roose and himself.

Jaime's a broken romantic/ idealist. He desperately wants the world to be better than it is even while he sees his understanding of the realities as his trump card. So he wants his own destruction, in a way. He wants the vanities of honour and loyalty and nobility which he despises as empty to become real, even though that will almost certainly mean disaster for him and those he cares for.

So that comment, imo, was him shittng on Roose's disloyalty/dishonour and even more shitting on himself for requiring Roose to be dishonourable at the moment, and generally shitting on the whole situation. I doubt he gave it too much thought beyond figuring out that Roose was yet another example of his expectations being met/inner hopes being dashed.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I seriously doubt that. Roose was already working with Tywin on planning the Red Wedding, and Roose knew that Jaime was not in contact with Tywin during that time. Why would he expect an order to kill Robb to come from Jaime, and why would it come in the form of a pleasantry instead of "I'd like for you to kill Robb Stark"?

Yes. But don't call it an order, call it a favor for Tywin's son. And please remember that they are talking over Brienne's head.

I think at this point Jaime was already trying to be a more honorable person, and what reason would he have to hate Robb? He wasn't treated cruelly in his captivity, they had fought in battle but I don't think there was any personal animosity from Jaime towards Robb. I think his "give my regards" was nothing other than what it was on the surface…a small politeness from one noble to another that Roose allowed to be misinterpreted, out of a sense of humor or cruelty.

Yes, but Roose can't look into Jaime's head.

[Ramsay Gimp]

Yes, but Roose can't look into Jaime's head.

Roose is usually a good judge of character though. He would be taking a big leap to assume Jaime's comment meant "you better kill Robb personally." Plus I don't think he'd care

[RainGhost]

Just had a thought. Roose was incredibly lucky that the ironborn chose Euron as king and he decided to invade the Reach. How was Roose planning on taking on the Iron born after destroying the majority of the northern army?

Also, he should have warned the Lannisters not to return Manderly ' s son to him. How is he planning on feeding the north in winter? King bread will rule and the once the stores run out, the only person who will be able to feed the north is the Lord of White Harbour or the Vale where Sansa is.

[l2 0 5 5]

Roose is an opportunist. In the world of Westeros, that is the smart move.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Just had a thought. Roose was incredibly lucky that the ironborn chose Euron as king and he decided to invade the Reach. How was Roose planning on taking on the Iron born after destroying the majority of the northern army?

With the remaining rest.

The Ironborn had about 12,000 men in the North at their maximum, while the North had 35,000-50,000 remaining men. Furthermore, the Ironborn are rather bad fighters on land, easy pickings for Northern cavalry. And they had to try to keep their parts of the North occupied, which they were already struggling with against guerillas.

Roose could probably throw them out with 5,000-10,000 men, the former being his own soldiers, the latter being supplied by the Dustins alone.

[Petyr Patter]

Roose is usually a good judge of character though. He would be taking a big leap to assume Jaime's comment meant "you better kill Robb personally." Plus I don't think he'd care

All I have to say on Jaime and Roose's interaction is Roose didn't much care what Jaime thought. Tywin mattered... and Tywin might be upset when his son was returned maimed. Jaime was a prisoner with almost no bargaining power... except that one day he might tell his father and that father would "pay his debts." So, in some ways it was safer for Roose to just quietly kill him.

Just had a thought. Roose was incredibly lucky that the ironborn chose Euron as king and he decided to invade the Reach. How was Roose planning on taking on the Iron born after destroying the majority of the northern army?

Also, he should have warned the Lannisters not to return Manderly ' s son to him. How is he planning on feeding the north in winter? King bread will rule and the once the stores run out, the only person who will be able to feed the north is the Lord of White Harbour or the Vale where Sansa is.

Did he need to take on the Ironborn? At Moat Catlin, yes, so he could move his army forward. However, I don't think Roose much cared if Deepwood Motte and the west coast of the North had occupiers. Regardless, he still had soldiers and could chip away at the invaders when it was most convenient for him. Probably after the Winter.