Let's Talk About Marillion

[JonCon's Red Beard]

True enough. I wouldn't say that the Blackfish - who worked closely with Lysa - saying something to Cat, who could be trusted to keep it private, qualifies as it being widely known. But the fact that Myranda knows... is quite telling indeed.

The maester knew she breastfeed SR despite he was too old for that. I'm sure some of her maids knew as well. Their servants were probably very aware of her overprotection. One of them talks with another maid, she tells her lover in confidence, he tells the stable boys, they tell the squires, they tell the knights...

[Nerevanin]

One question thought: Why would Marmillion try and rape Sansa if he was working for LF? I would imagine LF would have made it pretty clear that Sansa is off limits.

Earlier post by Roose on the Loose:

If Marillion is LF's man, then the whole attempted rape was a farce designed to make Sansa grateful for LF's protection.

I think this is a very good point and honestly something like that would be pretty Littlefinger-ish to me.

[Alaynsa Starne]

One question thought: Why would Marmillion try and rape Sansa if he was working for LF? I would imagine LF would have made it pretty clear that Sansa is off limits.

Marillion is described as pretty drunk during this episode. Even if LF had told him in no uncertain terms that Sansa was off limits, Marillion probably wasn't fully in control of himself and may have relied upon his proclivity to sexually force himself upon other women when inebriated.

That said, there is also an alternate explanation offered in several other comments on this thread suggesting that the attempted attack was actually a ploy designed by LF to further Sansa's dependency on his protection.

We must ask why LF wouldn't send Marillion away after the attempted assault, especially considering his prolific reputation throughout the Eyrie.

The guy tried to force himself onto the virgin daughter of his patron's new husband and an influential man besides.

I'm going to say he's not very bright, and certainly not in Littlefinger's employ.

The entire purpose of the sky cells is to drive its occupants to confession or suicide. Keep in mind that its not just a room without a fourth wall. It is prison also exposed to the elements, which due to high elevations are quite severe. Furthermore, he was getting his 3 hot meals a day. Probably just bread and water. So, malnourishment would soon be a factor. This explains his voice, and weakness and a sloped floor explains his eventual fall.

I think Sweet Robin's "perception," if it is a real thing, is that his mother's killer is still alive. Not that Marillion is still alive.

For your first point, see my reply above to pigpiginsunspear. Although, I will extrapolate on your comments about Marillion being none too bright. He must be somewhat clever as he survived both the trip through the Vale with Cat and Tyrion and became Lysa's favorite in the Eyrie. And I'm actually glad you brought up these questions as they actually further my argument. We were given an example of justice in the Vale in AGOT when Tyrion is almost thrown through the Moon Door on suspicion of killing Jon Arryn. Now, why wasn't Marillion thrown through the Moon Door after confessing to Lysa's murder? She's the former wife of the Hand of the King and the Lord of the Vale and Warden of the East, and the mother of the current Lord of the Vale. Marillion is supposed to have killed the head honcho of one of the most important regions in Westeros, and yet he's put back into the Sky Cells... so that LF can kill him in secret... at some undisclosed date and time even though his life is already forfeit. Or, I suppose, so that he can eventually fall to his death or die of exposure. It's utterly convoluted when you consider that it would be far more efficient and a damned bit more convenient for the rest of the castle who's being kept awake at night by Marillion's singing to execute him immediately and in the tradition of the Vale. Why would anyone take a convicted criminal out of the public eye so that he can die in a fairly questionable way?

And malnourishment and exposure to the elements doesn't explain how his voice can be strong enough to sing loudly enough for the entire Eyrie to hear one hour, and then be barely strong enough to speak the next. I think he was throwing his voice during his trial so that his "torture" wouldn't be suspected of being illegitimate, although Sansa noting the disparity in the quality of his voice actually has the opposite desired effect. I would also note that the nature of the Sky Cells makes it fairly easy to spirit a prisoner out of them. "Oh the prisoner isn't here this morning? Must have jumped to his death." *shrugs and goes about day unconcerned and unsuspicious* The Sky Cells are great as torture methods for suspects who haven't confessed or haven't been convicted, but upon conviction one would naturally assume that subsequent punishment would be immediate or near-immediate execution to save on resources and to make a public example of the criminal, especially considering that one's lifespan within the Sky Cells would be fairly short anyway. Someone jumping to their death out of public notice is a waste of a perfectly good terror tactic that is necessary to keep ambitious lords and knights in their place.

I checked the timelime and Tommen's wedding happens 2 chapters after Marillion confession. Which doesn't really say anything. There could be 2 days, 2 weeks, 2 months between the Cersei and the Sansa chapters... In times like that I wish there was a date in each chapter so it would be much easier to know how much time passed.

Yeah, it's definitely hard to say for sure, but it is good to think about. I would say that LF might consider it too risky to place a supposedly-dead Marillion in such a high-profile place as KL in case a Vale lord or knight or servant or whoever travels there and recognizes him.

[Nerevanin]

Yeah, it's definitely hard to say for sure, but it is good to think about. I would say that LF might consider it too risky to place a supposedly-dead Marillion in such a high-profile place as KL in case a Vale lord or knight or servant or whoever travels there and recognizes him.

Of course it is possible that some Vale lord would go to KL or would send some servant there. But there are two questions to ask: 1. Would that Vale person be even able to get close enough to the top tier in the court to see the Blue Bard? and 2. Would that person recognize Marillion? Although the answer to question 1 might be "yes", I'm not sure about the other one. If you don't look for someone, you might not recognize the person. Just tomorrow I can across a photo of my grandpa in his ~20's. If I didn't know it is he, I wouldn't recognize him at all, although now, when I know it is he, I can see some familiar features. Doesn't the Blue Bard dye his hair? That might be enough to mask Marillion.

[Alaynsa Starne]

Of course it is possible that some Vale lord would go to KL or would send some servant there. But there are two questions to ask: 1. Would that Vale person be even able to get close enough to the top tier in the court to see the Blue Bard? and 2. Would that person recognize Marillion? Although the answer to question 1 might be "yes", I'm not sure about the other one. If you don't look for someone, you might not recognize the person. Just tomorrow I can across a photo of my grandpa in his ~20's. If I didn't know it is he, I wouldn't recognize him at all, although now, when I know it is he, I can see some familiar features. Doesn't the Blue Bard dye his hair? That might be enough to mask Marillion.

Hmm... I'm not entirely sold on this, but it is a fairly good possibility. Thanks for bringing it up!

The main issue I do have with Marillion = BB is that Marillion's most distinctive feature at this point would be his voice, which anyone from the Eyrie would likely recognize if they heard it again due to his employment under Lysa and the time he spent singing in the Sky Cell. If the Blue Bard is Marillion, then one note from him would make someone from the Eyrie take a second look at him, and that might be all it would take.

Furthermore, sending Marillion to KL seems like a bit of a wasted opportunity. LF must have quite a network of spies in KL, but is distrusted by the Vale lords in his immediate location. Spies in the Vale would seem to serve LF better. Plus, if Marillion is indeed on the contingency to murder SR, it would make more sense to keep him close at hand. Having a "ghost" as an alibi in the suspicious death of a high lord would be awfully convenient.

On the other hand, LF does seem fairly confident that SR will die soon. Maybe he'd prefer to keep an eye on Margaery to get a good measure of what the Tyrells have planned, in which case Marillion = the Blue Bard is a pretty plausible connection.

[Nerevanin]

This was just an idea of course. :)

You're very right about Marillion's voice, I was thinking about it as well. I suppose pretty much all the Vale lords would be able to recognize it immediately. But maybe LF doesn't think that anyone from the Vale would go there? Honestly I don't think so either. The Vale is pretty isolated both geographically and politically and right now it has enough problems on its own. Lysa is dead, the little lord is a sick kid who's most likely going to die soon, Lord Protector is generally despised a bit. I don't think any of the lords would go beg for help to KL because Petyr Baelish was and is (at least he tries to preserve that feeling) supported by the Crown. It would take quite some nerve to complain of him directly to the King, the Queen or the Hand.

To the third paragraph of your previous post, I think just in the opposite way. A spy placed that highly in the court would be perfect for LF. Surely he does have tons of spies in KL but the Blue Bard is very close to Margaery and this means to the Tyrells which might be very useful.

How would LF keep Marillion in the Eyrie unnoticed? KL, the city itself, would serve as a great camouflage for the agent but Eyrie is something else. Honestly, the only place I can think of where could Marillion be hidden in the Vale is LF's keep in the Fingers. But that's not really close at hand. When I try to imagine the singer spying somewhere in the Eyrie, the only thing that comes to my mind is the basilisk in water pipes in Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets.

[Ser Giggity]

i understand why he "tried" to rape sansa, at least in the way you explained it, but the fact that he already tried to rape some other girls makes this whole "spy" theory quite unlikely

i mean, how could he have known that lysa wouldn't send him away or kill him after the first accusations against him? there's no chance he knew exactly how she would react to that

and even if he only did it because he was drunk etc. it would be quite implausible for littlefinger to keep such an unreliable spy in his service, because these accidents could easily have ruined his whole plan

[Alaynsa Starne]

i understand why he "tried" to rape sansa, at least in the way you explained it, but the fact that he already tried to rape some other girls makes this whole "spy" theory quite unlikely

i mean, how could he have known that lysa wouldn't send him away or kill him after the first accusations against him? there's no chance he knew exactly how she would react to that

and even if he only did it because he was drunk etc. it would be quite implausible for littlefinger to keep such an unreliable spy in his service, because these accidents could easily have ruined his whole plan

That's only assuming that LF knew about the rapes before he got to the Vale and that he actually cared about them. LF might not consider Marillion's value as a spy to be contingent on the singer's ability to keep it in his pants, particularly if his victims are low-profile servants. If Lysa knows Marillion is LF's man and LF tells her he stays, she's not going to send him away no matter who he rapes.

Welcome to this thread and the boards. :)

[Alaynsa Starne]

How would LF keep Marillion in the Eyrie unnoticed? KL, the city itself, would serve as a great camouflage for the agent but Eyrie is something else. Honestly, the only place I can think of where could Marillion be hidden in the Vale is LF's keep in the Fingers. But that's not really close at hand. When I try to imagine the singer spying somewhere in the Eyrie, the only thing that comes to my mind is the basilisk in water pipes in Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets.

Well, LF and Co. don't stay in the Eyrie for long after Marillion's alleged death so if he is still around, he's either in an empty Eyrie or somewhere closer to where SR currently is. Although I will admit, I'm not sure on the logistics of keeping Marillion hidden and it's a major flaw in my theory as of now. I'd like to think that LF could manage it if he tried hard and believed in himself, but LF isn't a wizard and keeping a grown man hidden in a castle full of Lords Declarant would be a helluva task.

Though now that you mention it, Marillion is described as thin. Definitely thinner than the Basilisk. He could easily fit through those pipes. ;)

[Petyr Patter]

For your first point, see my reply above to pigpiginsunspear. Although, I will extrapolate on your comments about Marillion being none too bright. He must be somewhat clever as he survived both the trip through the Vale with Cat and Tyrion and became Lysa's favorite in the Eyrie. And I'm actually glad you brought up these questions as they actually further my argument.

You know, when you start seeing arguments against a theory as evidence for it, you might be engaging in CONFIRMATION BIAS.

Sure, it possible that Marillion was a Littlefinger agent. However, ask Ser Dontos what the retirement package for a Littlefinger agent is. Furthermore, if he is a Littlefinger agent, his behavior made him well hated by most of the Eyrie except Lysa. So, the one individual Littlefinger could count on, thats the one Marillion ingratiated himself with. For example, Lyn Corbray made himself a public enemy of Littlefinger... the guy he was spying for, so people who were anti-Littlefinger would approach him. Marillion, made an enemy of EVERYBODY, so no one is going to bring him into their trust... except the one individual who really already was an ally of Littlefinger.

Maybe Marillion still is alive, but I think it was Littlefinger letting him kill himself so he could "keep his hands clean." The alternative, is Marillion is not an entitled drunk, but rather the cleverest and most well disguised spy outside of the faceless men.

[Alaynsa Starne]

You know, when you start seeing arguments against a theory as evidence for it, you might be engaging in CONFIRMATION BIAS.

Sure, it possible that Marillion was a Littlefinger agent. However, ask Ser Dontos what the retirement package for a Littlefinger agent is. Furthermore, if he is a Littlefinger agent, his behavior made him well hated by most of the Eyrie except Lysa. So, the one individual Littlefinger could count on, thats the one Marillion ingratiated himself with. For example, Lyn Corbray made himself a public enemy of Littlefinger... the guy he was spying for, so people who were anti-Littlefinger would approach him. Marillion, made an enemy of EVERYBODY, so no one is going to bring him into their trust... except the one individual who really already was an ally of Littlefinger.

Maybe Marillion still is alive, but I think it was Littlefinger letting him kill himself so he could "keep his hands clean." The alternative, is Marillion is not an entitled drunk, but rather the cleverest and most well disguised spy outside of the faceless men.

I won't pretend to be unbiased as this theory is my current brainbaby and I'm very suspicious of the circumstances of Marillion's involvement throughout several of the major characters' arcs. I would, however, note that you also fail to address discrepancies between what LF and Marillion say and what they do in relation to this topic and instead rely on the assumption that Marillion is dead based on binary absolutes.

And while the points you bring up are not invalid, they are also fairly easy to dispute. Lyn Corbray is tasked with informing on the suspicious and disdainful Vale lords who are actively conspiring against LF, while Marillion is not. If Marillion was tasked by LF with following either Cat or Tyrion and the mission later changes to keeping an eye on Lysa after she has proven herself to be a liability and a loose cannon by nearly executing Tyrion then Marillion's job would be to surely ingratiate himself with Lysa even at the expense of making other alliances. Lysa is severely unstable and is insecure about the power that the other lords may have over her. Having overly-friendly relations with powerful families like the Royces would undermine the nature of Marillion's mission. To compare to other employees of LF, Dontos' mission was to spirit Sansa out of the Red Keep, yet he doesn't work with the people closest with her or coordinate a network of alliances around her because he already has contact with Sansa herself. Different spies have different missions and different methods through which they must work. I am by no means suggesting that Marillion is a brilliant mastermind or a perfect spy and nor must he be for my suspicions to prove correct. I am simply putting forward that he is/was an employee of LF and that over time, Marillion's job description evolved from keeping an eye on Cat/Tyrion to babysitting Lysa to being an instrument of terror to weaken SR.

Plus, we must think of why LF would want to "keep his hands clean" (odd considering LF has no qualms about killing others) when -- if Marillion is not working for him and LF truly plans to leave him rotting in a Sky Cell until his inevitable demise -- Marillion has the leverage to utterly destroy all of LF's plans with a single sentence. LF can't know for certain that 10 hours after Marillion is returned to a cell that he won't start screaming the truth. And that is a very huge risk to take, especially when said risk could be mitigated with a completely justifiable summary execution.

[Pashernate Reader]

one of my favourite moments is when tyrion breaks his fingers, just because he's an annoying singer.

Imp, imp, it rhymes with gimp.

[Nerevanin]

Well, LF and Co. don't stay in the Eyrie for long after Marillion's alleged death so if he is still around, he's either in an empty Eyrie or somewhere closer to where SR currently is. Although I will admit, I'm not sure on the logistics of keeping Marillion hidden and it's a major flaw in my theory as of now. I'd like to think that LF could manage it if he tried hard and believed in himself, but LF isn't a wizard and keeping a grown man hidden in a castle full of Lords Declarant would be a helluva task.

Though now that you mention it, Marillion is described as thin. Definitely thinner than the Basilisk. He could easily fit through those pipes. ;)

Yeah, the logistics are the problem of it. Marillion would have to leave the Eyrie soon after his "trial" but it seems that a guide (for example Mya) is pretty much needed while going to or away from Eyrie. The guide would see him and Mya doesn't seem to be the kind of person to be bribed or to be LF's man (well, woman).

I don't find it possible at all for him to be in the abandoned Eyrie. Everyone left because of the winter and the winter might last several years. I am gonna change my previous opinion a bit: He CAN be in the Eyrie but he can hardly survive. It'll be very very cold there, he probably doesn't have enough food for ~ 3+ years and even if someone went there every let's say 2 weeks to supply him with more food, the Eyrie might be difficult to reach in winter. Plus if Marillion was pretty much locked down in the Eyrie what use would he be of? Even if LF thought he was a great loyal servant, he 99% wouldn't wait several years to use him again.

[Avlonnic]

Nice work, Alaynsa Starne. I am delighted you got this started and in a very nice fashion. I have been thinking about this quite a bit (along with Satin questions and a couple of other niggling unsolved questions/suspicions so I am thrilled I am not the only one. I'll try to pull some commentary together soon on this.

eta: typos

[Alaynsa Starne]

Yeah, the logistics are the problem of it. Marillion would have to leave the Eyrie soon after his "trial" but it seems that a guide (for example Mya) is pretty much needed while going to or away from Eyrie. The guide would see him and Mya doesn't seem to be the kind of person to be bribed or to be LF's man (well, woman).

I don't find it possible at all for him to be in the abandoned Eyrie. Everyone left because of the winter and the winter might last several years. I am gonna change my previous opinion a bit: He CAN be in the Eyrie but he can hardly survive. It'll be very very cold there, he probably doesn't have enough food for ~ 3+ years and even if someone went there every let's say 2 weeks to supply him with more food, the Eyrie might be difficult to reach in winter. Plus if Marillion was pretty much locked down in the Eyrie what use would he be of? Even if LF thought he was a great loyal servant, he 99% wouldn't wait several years to use him again.

Good points. There must be other guides in the Vale besides Mya, otherwise everyone would be SOL if she had a tragic fall or something. Assuming I am correct in my theory, LF either IS a wizard and was actually capable of keeping Marillion hidden in the Eyrie during the remainder of their stay (seemingly unlikely) or he has sent him somewhere else where we as readers will presumably see him again. It definitely seems like you're onto something with the Blue Bard, but we do still need to figure out if the timeline bears out and it might be constructive to compare their descriptions and any other clues that they might be the same person. I'll try to look into that when I have time. :)

Nice work, Alaynsa Starne. I am delighted you got this started and in a very nice fashion. I have been thinking about this quite a bit (along with Satin questions and a couple of other niggling unsolved questions/suspicions so I am thrilled I am not the only one. I'll try to pull some commentary together soon on this.

eta: typos

Thanks for joining the conversation! I'd be interested to read any comments you have.

[Ser Not Appearing]

What were the odds Lysa would end up being the one to fall out the moon door?

A Marillion to one!

[Mikkel]

What were the odds Lysa would end up being the one to fall out the moon door?

A Marillion to one!

badum-tisch!

[SeanF]

Marillion's fate is sufficiently vague that GRRM could write him back into the story if he wished, but my own view is that he was thrown from the sky cells. Mord had worked him over to the point where he'd confess to anything to end the pain. Once he'd confessed, his usefulness was at an end.

[Alaynsa Starne]

Marillion's fate is sufficiently vague that GRRM could write him back into the story if he wished, but my own view is that he was thrown from the sky cells. Mord had worked him over to the point where he'd confess to anything to end the pain. Once he'd confessed, his usefulness was at an end.

Yeah, this very well may be the case and it's what I initially thought as well. It wouldn't devastate me if we never see Marillion again, but it wouldn't surprise me if he popped back up. He's written with so many contradictions embedded throughout his involvement in the story that taking him for granted as nothing more than a young drunk singer is (in my opinion) to assume that GRRM doesn't pay as much attention to detail as many of believe.

[Walda]

Yes, Nice topic. We so need to talk about Marillion.

Alaynsa Starne's first post covered where he was going to, when he met Catelyn at the Inn at the Crossroads, but I'm wondering where he came from.

Marillion says he lost a fat purse when he bet on the Kingslayer against Loras Tyrell, which, if we take him at his word, places him at Kings Landing about 23 weeks earlier¹. Marillion's preferred customers are "Kings and Lords", so if he didn't follow the Kings van to Winterfell, why not stay at Kings Landing, which has the next highest concentration of Nobility and courtiers in the Kingdom?

If he could no longer afford to stay in Kings Landing, or had to keep clear of the city for some reason, the Crownlands still have the most inns and a prosperous population. If he is too poor to stay at an inn, why not head South from Kings landing, where the weather is clement and there are peaches the size of your head dropping from the orchard trees? It's the second best choice after the Crownlands.

So five and a half months or so later, Marillion is at the Crossroads north of Kings Landing, at least claiming that he is returning for the Hands Tourney. We know he did not taken the East road to the Inn, he claims he has not gone north (or at least, not as far as Winterfell). These are both lonely, dangerous, and not well populated roads, with few inns, so that is natural enough (although, if he chose to head North from Kings Landing, I wonder why he did not chose to leave with a departing party of Knights and freeriders, for company, protection and meals. But maybe he did, and parted company from them when they reached their destination.)

That leaves the West road, the third best choice for a strolling singer. If Riverrun keeps no bed for him, he might head to Wayfarers rest, or take the river to Pinkmaiden. He could entertain the Darrys, Pipers and Vances, or keep going into Lannister territory (as the Mountain has yet to reave the area).

I'm not as certain as Catelyn that he hasn't been to Riverrun. Marillion was three the last time she was at Riverrun, and while Edmure clearly has issues with Tom Sevenstreams, Rymond the Rhymer entertained the troops at Riverrun while the King in the North was there. If Marillion was attached to a friend, say, Marc Piper, Edmure may well give him a bed and treat him hospitably.

Marillion recognizes Tyrion, and has Lannister songs, but is quick to side with Lady Stark, so maybe he is from the Riverlands and not so great a liar as Catelyn sets him up to be.

Then again, maybe he is. Maybe he went North with the King and played the high harp at Winterfell, and his pointedly enthusiastic greeting for Lannister, and the dismissive comment about the Stark ear, were a way of soothing his ego when it became clear Lady Stark had forgotten his brilliant performance at her feast. It is hard to tell if he was lying in wait for her, or just for a meal. He did draw Catelyn to Tyrion's attention, but could he have predicted what came next? And Tyrion had flashed a golden dragon.

Speaking of gold dragons, everywhere except in Astapor the price of a human (dead or alive, as ransom, blood price, sellsword hire, or even just a part, like a maidenhead) is paid in gold. Silver is the currency for accommodation, information, and silence. Even prosperous smallfolk struggle to find the change for a Golden Dragon, which is why only Lannisters use them for services (they might always pay their debts, but I've yet to see them count their change). To the stingy mind of a mother, 90 silver stags might seem an assassin's fee, but even an amateur assassin would know to ask more. Catelyn must have paid at least that much for her passage to Kings Landing, for goodness sakes.

90 stags is not too large a purse for a gambler's winnings. Perhaps, if Marillion had been at Winterfell, that was the purse he lost. We know Marillion was not lying about his gambling, and that even a fear of death can't override his scavenging habits, from the Shadowskin coat Tyrion wins from him on the road to the Eyrie.

On his songs: Alaynsa Starne's explanation of their choice as a sinister lullaby at SweetRobin's bedtime fits perfectly for the first set (Day they Hanged Black Robin, Mother's Tears, Rains of Castamere), but the second set is timed for Sansa's bedtime, and might relate to her secret identity. Six Sorrows (Eddard, Catlyn, Robb, Bran, Arya, Rickon), Fallen Leaves (was a Lady, now a bastard), Alysanne (the name is a portmanteu of 'Alyane' and 'Sansa', and was played at the Red Wedding - could Marillion have known that?).

The set he sung the night before (with harp accompaniment) might have been intended for Petyr. Dance of Dragons, Florian and Jonquil, Jenny and the Knight of the Dragonflies are all duets (Ok, Dance of the Dragons is a motet that can be sung as a duet), about love betrayed in the Game of Thrones. We know Jenny's song has a particular significance for Petyr and Catelyn, Petyr has replaced Sansa's Florian, and the last Lord Protector of the Vale to hold Harrenhal figured prominently in the Dance of the Dragons.

Sansa thinks Marillion sings his dawn song for himself, and maybe he does - he could have lightened his chestnut brown hair when he took up the identity of Marillion, as easily as Sansa had darkened her Auburn to become Alayne. His Riverlands repertoire would be normal for a boy raised in now-destroyed Wendish town.

Songs are not the most precise guide to the origin of a singer. The Mother's Tears might be a ballad to Alyssa Arryn, but then, it might be a hymn to the Mother, or the story of another weeping woman. Jenny was from Oldstones, but Edric Storm could tell you that; Florian spied Jonquil at Maidenstone but Sansa learnt the song at Winterfell; and the Dance of the Dragons took place all over Westeros.

Tom Sevenstreams shares the most repertoire with Marillion. He plays Black Robin, Mother's Tears and Rains; but Dareon from the Reach sang The Day they Hanged Black Robin too; and Mance Rayder knows Two Hearts that Beat as One as well as Northern songs in the Old Tongue. According to Tyrion, Seasons of My Love is a Myrish song.

But enough on where he might have come from: Marillion's reaction on hearing Catelyn was bound for the Eyrie was interesting. That is, it was predictable he chose to continue with her rather than turn back and face the mountain clans alone, but his awe and wonder on passing the Bloody Gates was unexpected. He reacts as if his deepest desire was a passport to the Eyrie, as if he was realising a dream rather than escaping a nightmare. GRRM's use of the word "haggard" to describe his voice is interesting too. The word comes from the falconry term for an adult bird captured from the wild - it usually describes visual appearance.

Sansa and SweetRobin have an ear for music (judging by the amount of songs they know and the attention they pay to music), so there is no danger of them mistaking Marillion's singing for someone else. The blindfolded man with the whispery, cracked voice that is brought in front of Lord Nestor and Ser Albar - is that Marillion?² His confession reads like Marillion: starting with the usual excuses a rapist might make for his conduct, and the bit about Lysa telling him she carried Petyr's child is truth, adjusted for the circumstances, But maybe there are other prisoners in the skycells (if it was only Marillion and Tyrion, Mord would be more janitor than turnkey).

Nerevanin, the basilisk in the water pipes is a good analogy for the tricks sound can play. My first thought was of the well in the guard-room of Khazad-dum, but it's the same idea. I haven't much idea of how the Eyrie's plumbing works (well, I know Robin has a chamber pot, and they have to have a source of fresh water somewhere), but I think its a hint that Marillion is not dead, and has moved or been moved.

The acoustics of the Eyrie are odd. The cavernous interiors are full of polished stone and marble, and should be as live as a bathroom, yet "the footsteps of the guards seemed strangely muffled as they walked the pale stone halls" .

Maybe not so strange, if they were walking on the blue silk carpets, or fresh rushes. Certainly not as strange as "Alayne listened to his footsteps recede" when Lyn Corbray exits Littlefinger's solar, across the Myrish carpet. Sansa could hear the murmur of the waterfall when she first came to the Eyrie, but Catelyn must have ignored the sounds of Mord lashing Tyrion.

Two nights before Lord Nestor and Ser Albar visit the Eyrie, "every chord the dead man played flew free to echo off the stony shoulders of the Giant’s Lance" and "No matter where she went in the castle, Sansa could not escape the music." The night before they arrive, both Sansa and SweetRobin hear the singing. The night Lord Nestor sleeps over, SweetRobin sleeps with Sansa and they hear no singing, but, when Lord Nestor gets home and closes the Gates of the Moon against the gathering Lords Declarant, SweetRobin is complaining about the singing and Alayne is certain the singer is dead.

Alayne moved into new apartments after her aunt died. From the description of the view, they were the same apartments that Catelyn occupied, looking West across the Vale and in the Westernmost tower, given "Catelyn could feel the faint touch of spray on her face" from Alyssa's Tears. I am not sure if Robin's bedchamber is in the Easternmost tower, but his Lady mother's balustrade looked out on the Godswood, and is in one of the three or four towers opposite the westernmost tower.

The sky cells open out in the same direction as Alayne's balcony (when she looks down over her balustrade "She could see Sky six hundred feet below, and the stone steps carved into the mountain, the winding way that led past Snow and Stone all the way down to the valley floor.", and when, from the oak barrel on the winch, she looks directly up "The sky cells on the lower levels made the castle look something like a honeycomb from below"), so she should at least be able to hear the near sky cells from her balcony (I'm not sure about "all through the Eyrie" - it takes a lot of power to move sound through open air, and it is easier to hear from below than above, where there are no surfaces to direct or amplify the sound. But Alayne probably isn't doing a full tour of the castle.)

When SweetRobin can hear, but not Alayne, maybe that is a clue that Marillion is not in the sky cells, but the granary or maybe even the stairwell "that bypassed both undercrofts and dungeons and passed beneath three murder holes" that could wick the sound straight to SweetRobin's chamber.

SweetRobin is neurotic, but he had no auditory hallucinations before this unvalidated singing. I doubt dreamwine would make a great difference to his perception: while a cup of dreamwine is enough to knock Jon Snow or Lollys Tanda out for the night, half a cup is just enough to calm SweetRobin's nerves. Alayne, who is quite certain “The Lord of the Eyrie cannot descend from his mountain tied up like a sack of barleycorn” nonetheless offers him a small cup of dreamwine just to get him out of bed in the morning.

Plus, why give the singer a falcon if he isn't going use it?

ETA: Numerous typos and footnote

Note

(1)Because the tourney for Crown Prince Joffrey's name day was apparently the first time the Kingslayer had been up against Loras Tyrell, and the first time he had been defeated for a long time, as well as the most recent tourney he had participated in, before the Tourney of the Hand.

My time-line goes:
14 days from the Tourney of the hand to Jon Arryn's death
3 days from Arryn's death to the King's departure to Winterfell
15 days from Kings Landing to the Inn at the Crossroads (we know that Eddard had "a fortnight of misery" on the same road, travelling at least half a day ahead of the wheelhouse)
14 days from the Inn at the Crossroads to the start of the Neck/the Twins
12 days through the Neck (Twins to Moat Cailin: on the way back "They had been twelve days crossing the Neck")
15 days from Moat Cailin to Winterfell (From the map this segment is significantly longer than the other three, and while it is not as difficult to get through as the Neck, and the traffic is lighter than before the Neck, there are more opportunities to hunt etc.)
After King Robert arrives in Winterfell, I used dotheknifefight's chronology for the first 57 days,
plus 3 days for the Storm Dancer to arrive in Kings Landing
plus 14 days for Eddard to arrive in Kings Landing
plus 14 days for Cat to get from Kings Landing to the Inn at the Crossroads

gives 23 weeks, give or take a week (weeks are a suitably vauge but not too vauge unit of measurement for this purpose)

2/ "We keep a whipping boy for Robert" A proper little gaolers pet?