R+L=J v.140

[Lord Varys]

Rhaenys,

I think dishonored means 'seduced/deflowered/raped' in this context. I'm pretty sure Ashara's daughter was conceived at Harrenhal - all I tried to say it is that it would technically possible for her to have yet another child before her death however that child would then have almost no chance of being fathered by one of the Stark suspects since they would be elsewhere. But the time line would allow that she have another child. But I'm not sure this would make sense story-wise.

If she was truly in love with Ned - and if she is truly dead - then having gotten pregnant involuntarily, leaving court, losing the child, losing Ned to Catelyn, and finally having Ned slay/help to slay her brother Arthur may have been simply to much to bear. I could easily see a person who had her own station in life/future prospects/happiness being destroyed so thoroughly committing suicide in the end. This is one of the reason why I actually never considered or was a fan of the theory that Ashara may still be alive.

[MtnLion]

Between Harrenhal and Brandon's trip from Riverrun towards Winterfell, back to Riverrun - interrupted by news about Lyanna - and to KL to his death, quite a few months pass. I'd estimate it to have been more than 6 months, at least, and Ashara would have only been sent away from court when her pregnancy became known - if she hadn't left by her own free choice. Time enough for Brandon to meet up with Ashara once.

One needs to assume that Ashara was at court, but we know that Aegon was born at Dragonstone, and likely Ashara was there, as well. Between Harrenhal's tourney (during the false spring) and Brandon's answering Littlefinger's challenge there is a winter, that eventually gets so cold that the Blackwater is frozen solid. I believe that there is about a year between Harrenhal and Brandon's trip to King's Landing. At least six months is okay, but Rhaegar needs to witness Aegon's birth and go missing before the Blackwater is frozen.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

One needs to assume that Ashara was at court, but we know that Aegon was born at Dragonstone, and likely Ashara was there, as well. Between Harrenhal's tourney (during the false spring) and Brandon's answering Littlefinger's challenge there is a winter, that eventually gets so cold that the Blackwater is frozen solid. I believe that there is about a year between Harrenhal and Brandon's trip to King's Landing. At least six months is okay, but Rhaegar needs to witness Aegon's birth and go missing before the Blackwater is frozen.

Oh, I agree that a year in between seems most likely, but not wanting to go too much into the territory where speculation is needed, I went with 'more than six months'..

Ashara would indeed most likely have been at Dragonstone, you are right, I hadn't completely factored that in... But as I said, she could have decided on her own to leave employment..

[BearQueen87]

Oh, I agree that a year in between seems most likely, but not wanting to go too much into the territory where speculation is needed, I went with 'more than six months'..

Ashara would indeed most likely have been at Dragonstone, you are right, I hadn't completely factored that in... But as I said, she could have decided on her own to leave employment..

Ashara could have decided to leave on her own, but wouldn't she still have to ask Elia for permission? Noy saying Elia would necessarily keep her around against Ashara's wishes but it's not like Ash can just "leave" when she decides she wants to go. I sorta think Elia had to cast her out, even if she didn't want to, when it was discovered that her supposed virgin highborn lady was with child.

[Lord Varys]

If Rhaella had the final word on the ladies of the royal household - Dragonstone included - then she might have forced Ashara to leave - with or without Elia's permission. However, I'd be surprised if Elia wanted pregnant Ashara around her, or if Ashara was eager to stay at court (on Dragonstone or in KL) to publicly suffer her shame.

The fact that Barristan knew about her pregnancy could be a hint that it was known in KL despite the fact that Ashara most likely would have been with Elia on Dragonstone - if we go with the assumption that he did not only find out much later.

On the season change in the Year of the False Spring:

We have it confirmed that the official 'false spring' of 281 in itself only lasted two turns. But I think it is reasonable to assume that the winter months preceding the false spring was very mild, and possibly nearly 'spring-like' for quite some time. After all, we know that Lord Walter Whent either first announced his great tourney in 280 or early 281, and would not have done so if winter still held the land in his grip at this time.

It makes also no sense to assume that the announcement of the tourney came only during the official 'false spring' as a turn would have been way too short a time to arrange a tourney of this splendor nor for all the guests to make travel arrangements or for the court to second-guess Lord Whent's intentions.

But we don't have to go with a gradual seasonal changes after the official end of the false spring. The weather could suddenly and dramatically change from spring weather to very cold temperatures. Those things happen. My guess is that there may have been a fortnight/month gloomy autumn/winterly weather followed by a drastic and continuous drop of the temperature. If it was very cold at KL and the surrounding lands for a fortnight or a month then rivers begin freezing, it is not necessary that it is cold for that long a time, it is enough if it is quite cold for a continuous period of time. But a month is easily enough time for that. We have to go with a gradual decline of temperature there, especially not with the magical quality the seasons have in Westeros.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Ashara could have decided to leave on her own, but wouldn't she still have to ask Elia for permission? Noy saying Elia would necessarily keep her around against Ashara's wishes but it's not like Ash can just "leave" when she decides she wants to go. I sorta think Elia had to cast her out, even if she didn't want to, when it was discovered that her supposed virgin highborn lady was with child.

Could be.

If Rhaella had the final word on the ladies of the royal household - Dragonstone included - then she might have forced Ashara to leave - with or without Elia's permission. However, I'd be surprised if Elia wanted pregnant Ashara around her, or if Ashara was eager to stay at court (on Dragonstone or in KL) to publicly suffer her shame.

But would Rhaella have a say about the household on Dragonstone?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Rhaenys,

I think dishonored means 'seduced/deflowered/raped' in this context.

I wasn't saying that it doesn't. I agree. I just don't think we can assume with 100% certainty that the conception of the child occurred at Harrenhal as well.

Personally, I think that chances are best for Brandon having been the father, and for Ashara to turn to 'Stark' after having been dishonored, the dishonoring would have been done by someone else, right?

[MtnLion]

Personally, I think that chances are best for Brandon having been the father, and for Ashara to turn to 'Stark' after having been dishonored, the dishonoring would have been done by someone else, right?

Yeah, I have another theory about that. It makes ultimate sense, if Ned didn't know anything about it when Ashara asked him about the details of the sack. Hold that thought, Ashara suffered a deep and troubling loss that led her to commit suicide. We have the baby switch, that Jon authors, and have been looking for another. What if Aegon was truly Ashara's child, and Ned told her in gory detail about the presents offered to Robert? That would make the stillborn girl Elia's child, and indeed she and Ashara would have motive to make the switch. For the child to have the Targaryen features that we are told, it would require a Targaryen father, making the source of Ashara's dishonor Rhaegar or Aerys. If it had been Rhaegar, Ashara could look to the king for justice, no need for Barristan or Stark to get involved. But, if Aerys had forced Ashara, then . . .

ETA: Too bad Cressen is dead . . . (Oh, wait he was at Storm's End. Some other Maester was on Dragonstone, Walgrave?)

But, back to the subject, R+L=J. ;)

[J. Stargaryen]

Oh, I agree that a year in between seems most likely, but not wanting to go too much into the territory where speculation is needed, I went with 'more than six months'..

Ashara would indeed most likely have been at Dragonstone, you are right, I hadn't completely factored that in... But as I said, she could have decided on her own to leave employment..

Yep. Along with Prince Lewyn, most likely. :)

[Jon Weirgaryen]

how so? We don't know the month in which the war broke out, and we also don't know in which month of 281 AC the tourney was. My usual take is to place the tourney in the midst of the year - say, in the May-August months - and if it was at the far end of that time frame then there might only be 6-8 months between Harrenhal and the outbreak of the war.

Elia's health and the marriage date and birth date of Rhaenys are usually used to do those calculations. We cannot move the dates around all that much as the information simply does not allow it.

There's an SSM:

When was the year of the false spring?

Don't have my references to hand, but it was a year or two before the start of Robert's Rebellion.

Concerning the False Spring

...which effectively does not say too much to go with, although it has the ring of "one year" from tourney to Robellion in it.

[Lord Varys]

TWoIaF has clearly superseded the two years aspect of that SSM as we know for a certainty now that the false spring was in 281 AC, and the Rebellion began in 282 AC, and ended in 283 AC.

Considering that Rhaegar seemed to have left Dragonstone for the Riverlands in January 282 AC, I can see a 1-2 month time frame until the beginning of open hostilities, but not much more. That is, if Rhaegar went straight to Harrenhal. Both Rickard and Brandon were apparently already on their way south so travel time could not have slowed things down all that much. And considering that both Ned and Robert would have to spend quite some time raising troops after had returned home - just as the loyalists would - there really isn't much time.

Especially not since Aegon cannot have been nearly two years old during the Sack.

Dishonoring thing:

I always read ADwD as if Stark had been the one who dishonored Ashara. I understand Barristan's line of thought in the way that had he talked to Ashara she might never have fallen for Stark, and had thus consequently never been dishonored by her unwanted pregnancy. It never crossed my mind that there could be a separate 'dishonoring' going on, nor do I know how that could look like or how this could make sense in relation to the story.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Lord Varys,

Rhaegars journey into the riverlands would 'ultimately' lead him to Harrenhal, heavily suggesting that Rhaegar first went elsewhere, leaving plenty of possibility, what imo is more likely, for the open hostilities (from Brandon) to take place somewhere in the middle of the year.

Why can't Aegon have been nearly two years old during the Sack? His age upon deah came from an SSM, and it would appear that that SSM is no longer valid, I think.. that Aegon was a few months older at his death.. a year and a half, two years, something like that.

[SFDanny]

I know the SSM in question, but I don't know why you think it is no longer valid? Can you enlighten me?

edit: let me be a little clearer in my question. I'm aware of the timeline problems from a strict interpretation of the old SSM, but I'm wondering if there is some change in information from George about the matter that causes you to think his old statement about Aegon being about a year old at the sack, give or take a turn, is no longer valid?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I know the SSM in question, but I don't know why you think it is no longer valid? Can you enlighten me?

edit: let me be a little clearer in my question. I'm aware of the timeline problems from a strict interpretation of the old SSM, but I'm wondering if there is some change in information from George about the matter that causes you to think his old statement about Aegon being about a year old at the sack, give or take a turn, is no longer valid?

Well, the timing of the Sack seems to be quite established..

Catelyn remembers that Ned was still in the south when Robb was born. With Catelyn and Ned marrying in 283 AC, and Robb born 9 months later, the war won´t have ended halfway through the year. We can also see from the books, that only a few months pass between the Blackwater and Joffrey´s wedding.. Robb turns 16 only shortly after the Blackwater.

Then there´s Rhaenys, who had already turned 3 (according to the app) at the time of her death, and who had been close to her nameday (suggested by Tywin's doubt about whether she was still 2 or 3 at her death) when she died. Rhaensy was born somewhere around the end of september, beginning of october.

In addition, Dany's nameday seems to occur towards the middle of the year (may/june), and as that was 9 months after Rhaella's flight, which itself was only a fortnight or so before the Sack..

All suggesting the Sack took place somewhere early october, perhaps end september.. Can't have been much later, as Ned would need to discover Lyanna not too long after Jon's birth (as she only died after his arrival, and GRRM's widest window of time for dying of childbirth seems to be "within a month" - Jeyne Marbrand), and as Dany's nameday falls within the first half of the year definitly, and there have to be 8,5 months in between her birth and the Sack (due to the fortnight between Rhaella's flight and the Sack itself).

Further, If Catelyn's quote about LF's age in 298 AC is correct, the duel against Brandon took place multiple months into 282 AC (at least 4, possibly more), and Brandon learning of Lyanna's disappearance took place after that, meaning that the war would start a few months after that.

With the information of Aegon's birth having been either late 281 AC or early 282 AC, being 12 to 14 months old at the time of the Sack has become impossible.. As that was only an SSM, and an old one, I would guess that GRRM has decided to make Aegon slightly older than that.

[pytri993]

Something's been nagging at me often of late, that is: (I hope this hasn't been brought up already, search button was no help)

Let's go full ad absurdum and take R+L=J at face value, wholesale. So Jon is really Jon Targaryen and so on.

What I can't figure out is--- why would Ned go to such unbelievable lengths to keep Jon safe and his secret intact, and then ship him off to the Wall? What's the point in saving the heir to westeros if you do nothing afterwards? Ned did not look keen to reveal Jon anytime soon and he sure as hell did not mean to unseat Robert or otherwise reinstate Targaryens on the IT.

So, again, why? What's the point in this whole mess if Jon was then supposed to live off his days at the Wall like any other NW man?

Am I missing something obvious here?

Plus, how could a honorable man like Ned live happily knowing that he had basically helped Robert take the throne on the grounds of two enormous lies? (1. Lyanna's not-abduction : if R+L=J is to be believed, the lass was more than willing to be abducted, 2. The rightful heir to the IT being alive and well and having a better claim than Dany and Viserys, let alone Robert)

[BearQueen87]

Something's been nagging at me often of late, that is: (I hope this hasn't been brought up already, search button was no help)

Let's go full ad absurdum and take R+L=J at face value, wholesale. So Jon is really Jon Targaryen and so on.

What I can't figure out is--- why would Ned go to such unbelievable lengths to keep Jon safe and his secret intact, and then ship him off to the Wall? What's the point in saving the heir to westeros if you do nothing afterwards? Ned did not look keen to reveal Jon anytime soon and he sure as hell did not mean to unseat Robert or otherwise reinstate Targaryens on the IT.

Well, Ned didn't ship Jon off to the Wall--Jon wanted to go. And if Ned had strictly forbidden him, Jon would just go when he turned 15 very soon and was "a man." Ned doesn't reveal anyhting because why would he? The Targaryens are gone. Jon is the last one left with Dany and Viserys over in Essos. Ned' mission was to keep Jon safe--just that, safe. He never (so far as we know) had plans to made promises to put Jon on the IT at some point. He's the Targaryen heir, but that means nothing when the Targaryens are no longer in power and the Baratheon throne seems plenty secured and has the backing of the major houses in Westeros

Plus, how could a honorable man like Ned live happily knowing that he had basically helped Robert take the throne on the grounds of two enormous lies? (1. Lyanna's not-abduction : if R+L=J is to be believed, the lass was more than willing to be abducted, 2. The rightful heir to the IT being alive and well and having a better claim than Dany and Viserys, let alone Robert)

You think Ned was living happily? Really? The melancholy guy who thinks about Lyanna, refuses to speak about Jon's birth, and who has dreams of the KG at the TOJ?

[Alia of the knife]

Something's been nagging at me often of late, that is: (I hope this hasn't been brought up already, search button was no help)

Let's go full ad absurdum and take R+L=J at face value, wholesale. So Jon is really Jon Targaryen and so on.

What I can't figure out is--- why would Ned go to such unbelievable lengths to keep Jon safe and his secret intact, and then ship him off to the Wall? What's the point in saving the heir to westeros if you do nothing afterwards? Ned did not look keen to reveal Jon anytime soon and he sure as hell did not mean to unseat Robert or otherwise reinstate Targaryens on the IT.

So, again, why? What's the point in this whole mess if Jon was then supposed to live off his days at the Wall like any other NW man?

Am I missing something obvious here?

Plus, how could a honorable man like Ned live happily knowing that he had basically helped Robert take the throne on the grounds of two enormous lies? (1. Lyanna's not-abduction : if R+L=J is to be believed, the lass was more than willing to be abducted, 2. The rightful heir to the IT being alive and well and having a better claim than Dany and Viserys, let alone Robert)

If I had to guess, Ned was still loyal to Robert and probably didn't want his own family a target, or Jon to be used as a political pawn, or figurehead in what Ned probably thought would be a futile rebellion on the part of Targaryen loyalists.

My own speculation is that brother Benjen might have been of a different mind.

[pytri993]

Not saying he was living happily, I'm saying I just can't see a man of his moral standing help robert take the throne knowing he truly has not one bit of right to sit on it.

I also am quite skeptical of it all being just to keep Jon safe. Strikes me as mightily unlike GRRM.

Thanks for the quick response tho

[BearQueen87]

Not saying he was living happily, I'm saying I just can't see a man of his moral standing help robert take the throne knowing he truly has not one bit of right to sit on it.

I also am quite skeptical of it all being just to keep Jon safe. Strikes me as mightily unlike GRRM.

Thanks for the quick response tho

Robert's "right" to it was that he won it by conquest. Something Ned helped him do. Jon, upon Ned's discovery, is a few days-weeks old at most. Maybe 90% of the realm at that point has gone Team Baratheon. Even if Ned were to walk into KL and hold up Baby Boy Jon, Rafiki style, it's hard to wage a war for a baby's throne. I also have a strong suspicion that it's not what Lyanna would have wanted. Promise me that you'll keep him safe, Ned. That means keeping Jon hidden away, as a bastard, for all of time.

Do you think Lyanna asked Ned to keep him safe until such a time that he could be revealed, Aragon style?

[BearQueen87]

If I had to guess, Ned was still loyal to Robert and probably didn't want his own family a target, or Jon to be used as a political pawn, or figurehead in what Ned probably thought would be a futile rebellion on the part of Targaryen loyalists.

My own speculation is that brother Benjen might have been of a different mind.

Ben is my giant question mark as well.