Why can't Aegon be the real deal?

[mtwebster]

Been reading Dance with Dragons, and my focus during Tyrion/Griff POV's has been on looking for clues and details about Aegon - I've seen nothing that would lead me to believe he's NOT the genuine article -

- Has the eyes

- Griff/Jon gives away no thoughts or feelings in any way that he might not be protecting the true Aegon, believing it seemingly enough to be willing to go off script and head back to Westeros rather than try to get Dany on board.

- He exhibits a temper to Tyrion, as well as leadership with the Golden Company, both perceived traits of Targaryans

- Lemore seems convinced - "you are not the only one who must needs hide" she says to Aegon when changing out of her Septa outfit

- The switch explanation is fleshed out enough to be believable (The tanner's son from Pisswater Bend being the stand-in

- A baby switch seems to have been effective enough at the Wall - no one has seen through it that I can see

The only thing that niggles at me is how would Varys have the forsight to do the switch in the first place? And following that line of thought, I suppose he could have used the switch story as an excuse to insert a Blackfyre baby.

[Turkey Jack]

Im with you, If he is not the real deal I would say Griff is in on it, or completely deluding himself

[Eejit]

It's mostly people finding Varys' prediction of it unlikely or meta-objections about introducing the 'true heir' this late in the series. As if anything makes a claimant to the throne legitimate beyond the power to take and hold it in these books.

[Arkash]

I must be one of the few that believe him genuine too.

[Euphail]

I do not doubt that Jon/griff truely believes it to be the real Aegon.

Where I have doubt is in Verys/Illyrio. They seem the type to try and take advantage of any situation for themselves. I also think it's odd that they would choose the Gold Company to retake Westeros given the rebellion connection.

I think a twist will come with something Tyrion knows. There's a reason he counciled Aegon away from Dany, and I doubt it's the reason he gave.

[the Scorpion Knight]

I must be one of the few that believe him genuine too.

me too

we should realy found an "aegon is Real" Faction

[Gingerly Grumkin]

Some chapter from TWOW that i have never been able to find is about the Prince's daughter and apparently she thinks Aegon is fake. But since i have never seen this chapter im inclined to think Arianne's first chapter in TWOW is fake

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I don't think he can't be, I think he isn't. Big difference there.

And Jon Connington, I'm sure, thinks he's 100% real. But that isn't really evidence of anything, given that Connington didn't meet this child until he was 4-5 years old. The problem with the switch is that it only really works in hindsight. Namely, Varys had no way to know that Gregor would make Aegon unrecognizable. Aegon was very young but still old enough to have certain distinct features (i.e. we know he had the Targ look). If Varys had made a switch and Gregor hadn't destroyed Aegon's face, the jig would've been up. The idea of a switch being plausible "because Aegon was unrecognizable" works because Aegon was unrecognizable. Meaning, Varys can retcon a baby switch and people can go, "Well yeah, it's possible because no one could've recognized Aegon's face." But at the time, it wasn't a guarantee that Aegon would be unidentifiable pulp.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

This has been discussed many times over the highlights of the Aegon is fake argument:

-Quaithe warns Dany about a 'mummer's dragon'

-In the House of the Undying Dany sees a cloth dragon

-Dany is supposed to be the 'slayer of lies'

-The Golden Company was founded by Bittersteel, a Blackfyre supporter, who vowed to one day seat a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne. The Golden Company is now supporting Aegon

-Varys is said to have contributed to Aerys' madness, leading many to suspect he is a Blackfyre trying to undermine the Targs

-If Illyrio and Varys are all about Targs, why did they do such a shitty job of helping Dany and Viserys, why didn't they reveal Aegon to them? Perhaps because they actually support the Blackfyres

-Illyrio appears to be very attached to Young Griff, suggesting that he is his child with a female Blackfyre

[Ice Turtle]

There is three reason why I don't believe he is true:

1, Golden Company broke it's contract for him.

2, If he is real Varys' actions don't make much sense

3, Certain old raven probably warged by one or two powerful sorcerers is calling someone else king

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I'm going to hit these one at a time.

- Has the eyes

And half the whores in Lys look like Dany. Valyrian features aren't unique in Essos.

- Griff/Jon gives away no thoughts or feelings in any way that he might not be protecting the true Aegon, believing it seemingly enough to be willing to go off script and head back to Westeros rather than try to get Dany on board.

Like I said, I'm sure Connington does think he's real. Denial is also a powerful thing.

- He exhibits a temper to Tyrion, as well as leadership with the Golden Company, both perceived traits of Targaryans

Because no one else in the series gets mad or acts like a leader except the Targs?

- Lemore seems convinced - "you are not the only one who must needs hide" she says to Aegon when changing out of her Septa outfit

We don't even know who Lemore is, what she knows or how long she's been with this child. Like Connington, she might think he's real, but that doesn't mean anything.

- The switch explanation is fleshed out enough to be believable (The tanner's son from Pisswater Bend being the stand-in)

Like I said, the switch makes sense only in hindsight.

- A baby switch seems to have been effective enough at the Wall - no one has seen through it that I can see

Neither of those babies were actually royal, both of them were actual newborns (less distinctive appearances), neither of them had rare (for Westeros) Targaryen features and they weren't switched in the middle of a chaotic city sacking.

[Michael Jon Snow]

As others have said, its not that he can't be. There is nothing that conclusively proves that he is or is not. He could be, but I don't think he is.

For me it comes down to the behavior and motivations of Illyrio and Varys. If Aegon is the real deal, then there are some holes in their motivations that bug me. If he is a Blackfyre, those problems go away. That is why I think he is an imposter.

But I could be wrong.

[David Selig]

I also believe he's real, mostly because I hate basing anything on the House of Undying visions and Quaithe's cryptic sayings. I dislike this mystical stuff and the other prophesies and would love to see them proven wrong as much as possible.

[Faint]

I admit I’ve never even considered the possibility that Aegon is actually who he thinks he is but, then again, I’ve been waiting on a fake Aegon since ACoK and nothing since has done the least bit to sway my mind. Reading the earlier Tyrion chapters in ADwD I have a hard time believing anyone could think he is actually Rhaegar’s son. I think the author was rather heavy handed in hinting who his real parents are.

[Turkey Jack]

There is three reason why I don't believe he is true:

1, Golden Company broke it's contract for him.

2, If he is real Varys' actions don't make much sense

3, Certain old raven probably warged by one or two powerful sorcerers is calling someone else king

Makes sense if the original contact was with Varys, and the elders who are now dead still longed to return to their homeland, so this contract was more worthwhile than one for mere gold.

He just wants to f-up the whole realm? whatever his motives we have not seen them and they will come as a surprise.

The dragon has three heads so another king dose not rule out Aeogn

[gramblor]

Septa Lemore is Elia of Dorne

You heard it hear first.

[Ice Turtle]

Makes sense if the original contact was with Varys, and the elders who are now dead still longed to return to their homeland, so this contract was more worthwhile than one for mere gold.

He just wants to f-up the whole realm? whatever his motives we have not seen them and they will come as a surprise.

The dragon has three heads so another king dose not rule out Aeogn

And what Varys offered them that was worth more than gold? Home, they could have tried even without him. And why would they trust him anyway.

It's only in book 5 where we learn anything about his motives, that is surprising enough.

You may not be wrong, but I kind of hope that Jon will choose his mother's side of family.

[Euphail]

Septa Lemore is Elia of Dorne

You heard it hear first.

And the mountain was just lying during his fight?

[the Scorpion Knight]

I also believe he's real, mostly because I hate basing anything on the House of Undying visions and Quaithe's cryptic sayings...

and if we learned one thing that prophecies are unreliable and have many meanings

[Buried Treasure]

Septa Lemore is Elia of Dorne

You heard it hear first.

Her body wasn't battered beyond recognition. Aegon is the only one that didn't have a 100% positively ID'd body 17 (?) years ago, so he is the only one that can turn up again now - real or fake.

The fact that he can turn up makes it unsuprising that he did. In theory there could be dozens of young men being raised in Essos who think they are Aegon Targaryen - all it requires is a motive, child of the correct age & enough resources to give him an education. If there were a dozen young Aegons 11 of them would have to be fake but there is nothing to gurantee the 12th is real - he may have actually been killed by Gregor. There isn't enough space in the story for any Aegon's but this one, but I haven't yet seen anything to prove that this Aegon is real.

I don't accept the arguement that the GC would only back a Blackfyre not a Targaryen - they discuss the possibility of going East to support Dany. From the conversation we heard, they seem willing to accept Aegon is real, but they don't bother asking for proof. The posibilty he is fake must have occurred to them, but it doesn't matter if he can lead them back to Westeros; - using his (supposed) status as Doran's nephew to get Dorne's support in the civil war that has already weakened the kingdom.