SeanF

It’s hard to think of many successful wars of conquest, since the end of WWII. Military strategy, and international public opinion tend to favour defenders. And, initially victorious conquerors tend to face insurgencies.

Does “out” mean “out of a window?”

TWOW and ADOS will witness scenes of unbridled cruelty and horror. I think Dany’s journey West encompasses Volantis, whose slaves are about to revolt. I’d expect wholesale slaughter of the master class, across Western Essos, like Haiti. Centuries of suffering are being avenged. That does not mean an end to slavery, but does pretty much, end situations where 75/85% of the people are chattels. By the time Dany gets to Westeros, Kings Landing is likely a blood-stained ruin. Any of Jon Con, Euron, Cersei will have destroyed it The final conflict against the Others takes place well South of Winterfell. Gilly’s boy is sacrificed to revive Jon. Stannis sacrifices Shireen, after the Others breach the Wall, in a last ditch effort to secure Divine backing. Jeyne Poole is unmasked, and burned for treason. Riverrun and the Twins are sacked, and the inhabitants put to the sword. Tyrion lusts after Daenerys, and is furious when she rejects him for Jon. Like Iago, he plots to destroy them both (the unwhitewashed version of his actions on the show).

The Tale of the Children of Hurin is completely at variance with Christianity. A man's family are cursed by a vindictive archangel, and there is absolutely nothing that any of them can do about it.

Well, the Sept and Godswood in question were owned by Stannis. It’s as if some sixteenth century lord converted to Protestantism, destroyed the statues in his chapel, and had it reconsecrated as a Lutheran church. Deeply offensive to many, but within his rights.

Presumably, they see servitude to R’hllor as being different to being another human’s chattel. They expect their converts to destroy their own idols. So far as I know, they aren’t attacking the religious buildings and relics of those who are not converts. Melisandre isn’t attempting to stop Jon and the rest from worshipping as they choose, up at the Wall.

I tend to agree that attacking the Black Goat, a Satanic religion founded upon child sacrifice, is a good thing. As is the Red Faith’s championing of emancipation. I don’t think the Red Clergy want to forcibly suppress other religions, despite viewing them as false. Stannis has plenty of “unbelievers” in his ranks, and Melisandre accepts that fact. They champion Daenerys, despite her being a pagan, in their eyes. But, the Faith might well see them as a threat. Followers of the Old Gods and the Drowned God are restricted to specific ethnic groups, and they are not making converts. They aren’t a problem. But, R’hllorism is out to make converts. No problem if they’re under 5% of the population, but what if they reach 10%+, and stop paying tithes, and accepting the moral jurisdiction of the Faith, like English Nonconformists? What if Dany converts? Even if she guarantees all the rights and privileges of the Faith, the clergy may still fear that nobles will follow her example, followed by their tenants and serfs.

My view is based upon Jon Con wanting to extinguish Robert’s bloodline, and the Sand Snakes being mad for revenge.

One can overthink all this. All the armies that we've seen are similar in size to the armies of the Thirty Years War/Spanish-Dutch Wars/The Deluge, rather than the typical size of a medieval army. 100,000 soldiers from the Reach would likely be supported by a similar number of camp followers, as well as having more than 100,000 horses, who would eat 1.5% to 3% of their body weight, every day. The soldiers alone, would consume about 75 tons of meat, 100 tons of bread, and 70,000 gallons of ale, every day. The camp followers would receive less, but you can still probably up that figure by 60-70% to take account of them. And, they need firewood to cook their stews, often made from stringy draft animals that have reached the end of their lives. That's a lot of peasant hovels being dismantled for their wood. Medieval states (other than China or the Eastern Empire) could not raise such armies for any length of time. Early modern states, more centralised, could do, if with difficulty. If the author wants Daenerys' army to be well-supplied, then it will be.

Nothing that I’ve seen of young Griff suggests to me a particularly capable ruler. And, I think that his capture of Kings Landing will be accompanied by the executions of Myrcella, Tommen, Margaery, and a bloodbath of anyone associated with the ancien regime. This may well be popular with his supporters, but will create opposition from the relatives of the victims.

I had understood your argument to be that industrialisation meant that a large slave workforce was no longer required. However, slavery had vanished from the domestic economies of Western Europe, long before industrialisation, and long before their involvement in the trans-Atlantic slave trade. There’s a very long period, beginning in the mid-12th century, where Western Europe abandons slavery, followed by a period, beginning about 200 years later, where serfdom gradually disappears. The Venetians continue to trade and use slaves in their Eastern colonies, but they’re atypical. Slavery in the British and French and Dutch colonies only starts becoming important in the latter half of the 17th century.

North Western Europe.

I think that depends upon the Revolution. Communism was a blind alley. The Chinese, Cambodian, and Russian Communists were more enthusiastic killers than the people they replaced. Revolutions such as those in France or 17th century England, were brutal, but beneficial in the long run. The US Revolution set the USA on the path to world hegemon.

Industrialisation got going in regions that hadn’t had slavery for centuries. While slavery has been common in many parts of the world, the kind of chatteldom that is practised in Western Essos is pretty unusual. Only a few societies, like Sparta or Haiti, have had such disparity in numbers between slave and free.

Slavery, I doubt, will be much of an issue. I’d expect the Dothraki to be well-sated with plunder, taken from Eastern masters. For them, taking slaves is simply a means to acquire luxury goods in exchange. In matters of religion, I’d expect Daenerys to be like Alexander.

WRT losses on the Hungarian Marches, and other frontiers between Christians and Muslims, there was a religious dimension to that conflict that will be lacking in this case. Threatening peoples’ religion is the surest way of motivating them to fight to the death. Which is why sensible imperialists don’t threaten the local religion. And, capture in such fights usually meant enslavement. Dany won’t be stupid enough to force people to convert to R’hllor, or impose special taxes on followers of the Seven or the devsirme. Nor will she be taking slaves.

Robert was a bad king. He plunged the Realm in debt, ignored rampant corruption, favoured the Lannisters, the worst of the major Houses, failed to give justice for Elia and her children, or for Mycah, and was oblivious to the impending signs of civil war. The less said about his personal behaviour, the better. But, that does not make Aerys a good king, a man who was a capricious sadist, who planned to murder thousands of his subjects, people who should be able to count upon him for protection.

It ended Jeremy Thorpe’s political career. ”Rinka lives. Woof, woof! Vote Waugh, if you believe dogs enjoy the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”

As I said, I could see them doing that. Hugely resenting the fact that a woman and her “savages” played a big part in their survival, and absolutely preferring a male claimant. ”No good deed goes unpunished, no act of charity unresented.” There are people who hate to feel beholden. What was truly bizarre about the show was to present such an outlook as reasonable. The narrative was that it was awfully selfish of Daenerys to expect anything in return for using her armies against the Dead and Cersei; that of course the North deserved independence under Sansa; and that Jon, not she, was the rightful ruler.

This is Westeros. Imagine the kind of retribution that Genghis Khan visited on Otrar, after Inalchuk, the governor, slew his envoys. That is what is coming to The Twins.

Likewise, I found Dune Messiah pretty dismal. And, Children of Dune is better, by quite a long way, if not as good as the original. I've never read beyond that, as the musings of a giant worm never struck me as particularly gripping.

Duke of Dune reminds me too much of Duck of Death in Unforgiven.

I visited Batsford Arboretum yesterday, and standing on the bridge in the Japanese garden, I was reminded of Lord Yabusighe composing a haiku, contrasting his inner tranquility with the screams of his captive being boiled alive.

I'm no fan of the SNP, but I have considerable sympathy for him. He was handed a pretty awful inheritance by Nicola Sturgeon, and then he had to worry about the fate of his parents in Gaza.

Continuing the Aragorn/Daenerys parallel, Tolkien never criticises the system of government in Gondor. We can assume that slavery (always presented as a very great evil in Tolkien’s universe), does not exist, but the Numenorean aristocracy must wield very great power over the masses. Aragorn is a great man, who will rule justly and well, by the lights of his world, but he’s not going to alter the system much. A common argument that’s used against Daenerys is that she’s made to look better than she is, because her slaver enemies are made out to be so evil - that this is really an elaborate form of authorial bait-and-switch. But the Freys, Boltons, Ser Gregor and his followers, the Karstarks, are made to be just as repulsive as the slavers are. And, yet their deaths attract none of the controversy that slavers’ deaths do. Martin wants to critique this system, showing that power that is concentrated in the hands of a few is going to be abused. And that’s fine. But that’s incompatible with everything being all right in the end, just because a few magnates, who think of the smallfolk as livestock, choose Bran as king; and just because Sansa is the North’s new autocrat.