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Everything posted by SeanF

  1. If Dany wins, I imagine that Maester Yandel will completely rewrite the most recent chapters of his chronicle.
  2. I don't think that Dany will be a mediocre ruler. I think she'll either be very good or very bad. She is magical and plainly has a huge role to play in world history. She has a mix of good qualities (courage, intelligence, compassion, a conscience ) and bad ones (cruelty, arrogance, impulsiveness). Her coin is still spinning.
  3. Many people don't. A high profile MP can build a personal following, but usually, people are voting for a party.
  4. I was privately amused by an acquaintance who was so pissed off at Brexit, that she switched from Conservatives to Labour. She lives in Vauxhall. I didn't have the heart to tell her who her MP is.
  5. Politics is about trying to win over the voters. If someone tells me (incorrectly) I'm part of a "dying demographic" I'd be unlikely to vote for them. But, each to their own.
  6. Not out of the top of my head, but it's human nature to react against people telling you you're a "dying demographic."
  7. Telling people that they're a "dying demographic" is an excellent way of motivating them to vote against you. In any case, your problem is white women as well white men. Although, I did read an article on Huffington Post which suggested that white men should simply be disenfranchised, which would solve your problem, but I can't see them agreeing to it.
  8. I think there were places where Brexit mattered, and places where it didn't. I think that in Scotland, being the party of both the Union and Leave, benefitted the Tories hugely. In some constituencies where UKIP were previously strong, in the East and West Midlands, the Tory vote really shot up. But, then you get the constituencies where there had been big votes for UKIP, and this time the Labour vote shot up (Luton North and South being good examples of this). Such voters would still have supported Brexit, but trusted Labour not to reverse it, and their economic concerns came to the fore. Then you have a number of wealthy constituencies where Tory Remainers were plainly very angry about Brexit, and were willing to vote for anyone who could beat the Tories as a result, places like Kensington, Battersea, Oxford West, Twickenham, Southgate were lost. But other Tory Remain constituencies, where I thought Remainers might vote against the Conservatives (eg Wokingham, St. Alban's, Guildford, South Cambridgeshire) produced easy wins.
  9. I agree with abolishing the triple lock. The mistake was to issue a manifesto which simply took things away, and offered nothing in return to the voters. As Pierre Trudeau put it, you have to offer the voters some prizes. Quite why anyone thought abolishing free school lunches was a good idea escapes me, since the cost of providing them is peanuts in the scheme of things, but it was precisely the kind of measure that angered people in the 35-44 age bracket, where the Conservatives did so badly. The Conservatives could have absorbed any one or two of a big lead for Labour among 18-34 year olds, a swing to Labour among 35-44 year olds, or a drop in turnout among 55+ year olds, and still won a majority, but they couldn't absorb all three.
  10. The Swiss themselves seem to have no desire to join the EU.
  11. Parts of it are. Where I live is very nice, and crucially, I can afford a much nicer property than I could get in London.
  12. The FTPA makes it very difficult to get rid of a government. It does require an explicit vote of No Confidence.
  13. The DUP have confirmed they'll vote for the Queen's Speech (and it's most unlikely that Lady Sylvia Hermon will vote against it). The arguments are about Supply, not Confidence.
  14. Like a lot of big capital cities, there's a dearth of comfortably off professional people, the lower middle classes, and skilled working classes in Inner London, compared to smaller cities and large towns. The gap between rich and poor is stark and in your face. The middle groups just can't afford to live there. I live in Luton, which despite its rough reputation, is a place where people on average earnings can afford to buy houses, and I enjoy a much better standard of living than I would if I lived in London.
  15. If they can pass the Queen's Speech, they can govern. Churchill in 1951 and Wilson in 1964 were able to govern with very small leads.
  16. Once the two main parties get up to 85% between them, then a lead of 2% can be sufficient to give a working majority. A lead of 5-6% can produce a landslide, as it did for Macmillan in 1959 and Wilson in 1966.
  17. Turnout among young people was well up, but still only at 57%. The Conservatives would have won comfortably, had they not also alienated a lot of older and middle-aged voters.
  18. There are some very hard questions that the local council needs to answer. Kensington & Chelsea Borough is rolling in money. They could afford to cover the £1.5m loss made by the Holland Park Opera Festival, but not, it seems, the relatively small amount needed for fireproof cladding.
  19. They were "dragonspawn". Rhaella, Viserys, and Dany would have been given very short shrift, if they had been captured. Even if they weren't murdered on the spot, they woudl never have been heard of again.
  20. So far as I can tell, most media have described it as a terrorist attack.
  21. It depends how she comes to power. If she's offered the Iron Throne by most of the nobility, she'll probably want to govern in consensual manner. If she takes it by force, she'll probably govern in a more autocratic manner. If the latter, I think there are ways she'd make things better, and ways she'd make things worse. She'd very likely want to renew her great-grandfather's reforms, in order to benefit the Smallfolk. At the same time, she'd probably resort to violence to smash opposition to her reforms. So, I'd expect her to centralise power, maintain both a large standing army and a secret police force, and deal harshly with opponents.
  22. Only the Conservatives can provide any sort of government at the moment, so they must get on and govern. And, I think it would be dereliction of duty if she were to step down right now. The voters would rightly be very unhappy about another election called for party advantage.
  23. I expect that Theresa May will remain in office longer than most people anticipate, because right now, there's no good alternative to her.
  24. People were certainly not better off in the Sixties and Seventies than they are now.
  25. That is standard advice, and usually, it's good advice. This is horrific. The courage of firefighters going inside, to rescue people is incredible.