SeanF

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Everything posted by SeanF

  1. Is Revolution The Only Viable Solution?

    In recent times, the Democrats held the Presidency from 1976 to 1980, 1992 to 2000, and from 2008 to 2016. The Republicans held it from 1980 to 1992, 2000 to 2008, and from 2016. 20 years each. The Democrats held the Senate from 1976 to 1980, 1986 to 1994, 2001-02, 2008 to 2014. The Republicans from 1980 to 1986, 1994 to 2001, 2002-06, and from 2014. 20 years each. The Democrats held the House from 1976 to 1994, and from 2006 to 2010. The Republicans from 1994 to 2000, and from 2010. 22 years for the Democrats and 18 for the Republicans. The Democrats will probably win it back in 2018. So, yes, the peaceful transfer of power works pretty well in the US.
  2. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    French pollster Kantar have just published their first voting intention poll here. Con 46%, Lab 24%, Lib Dem 11%, UKIP 8%.
  3. Is Revolution The Only Viable Solution?

    Democracy can go wrong. But, I think it's a good deal less likely to go wrong than various brands of oligarchy, such as the one proposed in the O/P. If nothing else, democracy enables power to be transferred peacefully between factions, rather than one or more factions resorting to violence to gain or retain power.
  4. Anyone else see Dany as becoming evil?

    I hope she'll become like Caligula in I Claudius, and demand that she be worshipped.
  5. Is Revolution The Only Viable Solution?

    That is an interesting change. Likewise, in the Ancient World, the elite considered it shameful to have to work for another person to make a living. Though it would be unfair to view them (and their medieval counterparts) as idle rich. Fighting and dying on behalf of the State was something the elite took seriously - eg about a quarter of the Roman Senate were killed at Cannae. Could you imagine the modern US Senate taking such casualties? These days, though, paid work certainly generates self-respect.
  6. Is Revolution The Only Viable Solution?

    WRT the O/P. How high would people have to score on IQ tests, before they were allowed to vote?
  7. Is Revolution The Only Viable Solution?

    They were partly right. For most people, the working week is shorter than it was in the 1920's. But, people want more than what was considered a good standard of living in the 1920's.
  8. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    Inner London is the old London County Council area, now the boroughs of Kensington, Westminster, Hammersmith & Fulham, Wandsworth, Lambeth, Lewisham, Southwark, Greenwich, Tower Hamlets, Hackney, Islington, and Camden. Politically, I would add the constituency of Hornsey & Wood Green. Inner London voted 72% to Remain in the EU; the 20 boroughs of Outer London only voted 54% to Remain. Politically, Outer London is very different to Inner London. The "Stockbroker Belt" covers wealthy constituencies down the M3 and M4 corridors. The politics of counties like Hertfordshire and Essex are quite different.
  9. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    I'm certainly hearing that Corbyn's views on violent Irish Republicanism are very much a live issue in the West Midlands, an area which is full of marginal seats.
  10. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    There is about 20% of the electorate that is utterly opposed to Brexit, and would try to reverse it (and that percentage is far higher in Inner London, and the Stockbroker Belt). It makes sense for the Lib Dems, who won 8% last time, to try and corner that market.
  11. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    I think it's the only thing that Labour can do, to mitigate the likely losses. The Conservatives' stance on Brexit has however, won them back significant support from people who voted UKIP in 2015.
  12. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    No, he's still Leader. Most MPs would like to be rid of him, but the members kept him.
  13. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    Currently, polls are showing an average swing of 7% from Labour to Conservative, compared to 2015. In practice, that probably means there will be a range between a couple of seats showing small swings to Labour (even in 1983, Labour gained a handful of seats) at one end, to swings of 14-15% to the Conservatives, at the other. The range is from Brighton Kemptown being won by Labour to Doncaster North being won by the Conservatives, with the large majority of seats showing swings to the Conservatives.
  14. Andrzej Sapkowski II

    It's hard to believe that the games haven't boosted book sales in English-speaking countries. I don't play games, but heard of the book series through people who do, and then looked for reviews on this forum, and bought all seven books.
  15. Yes, everything points to a massive drop in status and power after Robert's victory. They've gone from being a branch of the royal family and almost hereditary Masters of Ships to being Stannis' vassal. They were probably lucky not to have been completely dispossessed and sent into exile.
  16. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    In ordinary circumstances, I think that ex-Labour voting UKIP supporters would return to the party, but I think that's impossible while Corbyn remains leader.
  17. Evil Daenerys?

    Maybe they'll submit without a fight, in which case, there would be no need for a sack. But, I can imagine that there'll be some resistance to begin with. Even if capital cities surrender on terms, lesser cities (eg Selhorys) might be sacked to break resistance.
  18. Evil Daenerys?

    In part, you answer your own question. She will have unfinished business in Volantis. And Ser Barristan has promised the Tattered Prince Pentos. But, if, as I think most of us assume, she unites all, or a large proportion of, the Dothraki behind her, those two cities and their territories will be the likely targets. Most commanders in a medieval world would not sack castles, towns, and cities for fun. They would sack those that offered resistance, in order to persuade others to surrender. Exemplary massacres can break an opponent's will to resist, while ravaging the countryside harms their ability to feed themselves, while supplying one's own men.
  19. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    I'd expect something like 375 Conservatives, 180 Labour, 20 Lib Dem, 50 SNP, 25 Others.
  20. Evil Daenerys?

    I don't think that we'll get a definitive answer to that question. She's likely to do good things like freeing slaves, and to play a major role in the fight against the Others. And, she's likely to do cruel and ruthless things (such as invading Western Essos, sacking cities and so on.)
  21. I think the Lib Dems should regain 10-12 seats, but I'd be very surprised if it was more.
  22. Things are only going to get worse for Labour under Corbyn. It's best to lance the boil now (from their point of view).
  23. Andrzej Sapkowski II

    I was sad about that, but I still thought it was a strong ending.
  24. April Reads: What, fool, are you reading?!?

    I'm currently rereading Sailing to Sarantium and Lord of Emperors by Guy Gavriel Kay. A very satisfying read.
  25. The Books That Have Just Come Out: New Release Thread

    I just finished it, and that it very good (I went through the entire Witcher series in three weeks).