Two questions about Oberyn Martell

[Thia Stark]

8 hours ago, MinotaurWarrior said:

Blessing of the Father and the Mother?

Yeah, sure, why not. Or just the universe's balance

[Seams]

Quote

I have worked at the downfall of Tywin Lannister since the day they told me of Elia and her children. It was my hope to strip him of all that he held most dear before I killed him -- AFFC, The Princess in the Tower

I may be splitting hairs, but I don't think the toppling game in the water refers to single combat. I think you are right in interpreting it as a reference to the plan to destroy Tywin's hopes and dreams. And when you take a step back and look at the larger context, I think it points to a plan to poison Joffrey. (Honestly, the more I look at Joffrey's death, the more I think it's like an Agatha Christie plot with multiple murderers helping - or at least plotting - to murder the victim.)

We can probably all agree that the games children play in ASOIAF are symbolic of the larger game of thrones being played by the adults - Come Into My Castle, Maidens and Monsters, Cyvasse, Lord of the Crossing, etc. In ADwD, Tyrion informs the reader that some games are played by highborn children only, so Penny, for instance, doesn't know how to play Come Into My Castle until she makes up her own rules and kisses Tyrion. In Dorne, the Prince watches children play in the water all day long and leaves only when he has to attend to a crisis. So (in the literary sense) the water game seems to be a game that is unique to Dorne, for what that's worth. But the larger point is that the game is a longstanding Martell family practice run for the grown-up Game of Thrones, not just a substitute for swordplay.

So what does it involve?

A score or more had gathered in the big pool, to watch the battles as smaller children rode through the waist-deep shallows on the shoulders of the larger and tried to shove each other into the water. Every time a pair went down, the splash was followed by a roar of laughter. They watched a nut-brown girl yank a towheaded boy off his brother’s shoulders to tumble him headfirst into the pool.

“Your father played that same game once, as I did before him,” said the prince. “We had ten years between us, so I had left the pools by the time he was old enough to play, but I would watch him when I cam to visit Mother. He was so fierce, even as a boy. Quick as a water snake. I oft saw him topple boys much bigger than himself. He reminded me of that the day he left for King’s Landing. He swore that the would do it one more time, else I would never have let him go.”

Small children ride on the shoulders of larger (older?) children. Prince Doran has just told us that he was the older child. And he says that Oberyn was the one doing the toppling, which means he was on top, I think. Could Prince Oberyn be riding on Doran's shoulders in his mission to King's Landing? And when Doran says, "He swore that he would do it one more time, else I would never have let him go," he does not say that Oberyn promised he would return safely to Dorne, he says that Oberyn promised to topple someone. Doran allowed him to go only because he promised to topple someone, not because he promised to be careful or to play fairly or to send back reports.

As you pointed out, Doran's goal was to strip away everything that Tywin "held most dear" before killing Tywin himself. So maybe the pair being figuratively toppled by Doran and Oberyn was Joffrey sitting on Tywin's shoulders. I don't think Tywin's grandchildren were particularly important to him except as pawns that allowed him to rule Westeros. (There may be a pun on "held most dear" and "held most deer" - these grandchildren carry the Baratheon name, so they are not as important to Tywin as a Lannister-surname grandchild might be.) But Doran would believe that Tywin's efforts to build a dynasty and to rule the seven kingdoms would be set back if he saw Joffrey die before he could produce an heir.

As Arianne Martell knows, Joffrey's death could throw Westeros into a crisis since Myrcella is older than Tommen and she resides in the region of Westeros where girls can legitimately rule. So killing Joffrey would be a big move in the game of thrones, from the Dornish perspective.

The main clue that Oberyn might have been specifically (or initially) targeting Joffrey is the gift he gave Joffrey on the morning of his wedding. In accordance with the wedding customs of the Reach, individual gifts are given to the bride and groom on the morning of the wedding, with gifts for the couple presented at a later point in the festivities. Joffrey receives, "a red gold brooch wrought in the shape of a scorpion from the Dornishman, Prince Oberyn." This seems like a pretty direct threat for those of us who have been examining symbols. Scorpions sting with their venomous tails, so this pin seems like a poison metaphor. (For what it's worth, the harpies of ASOIAF have scorpion tales and I have seen some interesting points comparing Sansa to the Harpy. They are also in the same arachnid class as spiders, so there could be a connection to Varys, nicknamed the Spider, or to Whitewalkers, who are said to have giant spiders.)

If you've seen the interesting analysis of jousting victories in the Sansa and the Giants thread in this forum (OP and analysis by sweetsunray), it become clear that it's important to decide whether Clegane actually "wins" the single combat against Prince Oberyn, or whether it is a draw or even a loss for Clegane. Obviously the people watching the match see Oberyn die and Clegane carried off the field still breathing, so they find Tyrion guilty. But the reader knows that the outcome of the match is much more complicated.

If Oberyn successfully completed his mission, did he really lose? If his eight daughters rise up to continue his (and Doran's) work, did he really lose?

As for your second question, I don't know if Oberyn had hidden sons. (The pun-seeker in me would like to see more sons in Sunspear.) Although I do like the idea of the girl-power embodied by the Sand Snakes. Maybe we need to examine Maege Mormont and her daughters to figure out whether there is a hidden paramour or sons who are kept in a separate location in Oberyn's world. The Dornish are famous for being able to hide people, so it wouldn't surprise me.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

27 minutes ago, Seams said:

I may be splitting hairs, but I don't think the toppling game in the water refers to single combat. I think you are right in interpreting it as a reference to the plan to destroy Tywin's hopes and dreams. And when you take a step back and look at the larger context, I think it points to a plan to poison Joffrey. (Honestly, the more I look at Joffrey's death, the more I think it's like an Agatha Christie plot with multiple murderers helping - or at least plotting - to murder the victim.)

Well, I really don't agree that Doran would expect Joffrey's death to give the Dornish a legitimate claim to the throne. They know full well that the rest of the realm will regard Tommen as the king, which is exactly what happened. Dornish law only applies in Dorne. I suppose it gives Doran the opportunity to raise a stink, maybe as a distraction... but since he didn't take that opportunity, I have to assume that he had a different plan.

But - I think you're right about Joffrey's murder. There's quite possibly more to that story. My personal pet theory - which I fully acknowledge is full of holes - is that Joffrey really choked on the pie, and Pycelle lied about the autopsy results to get revenge on Tyrion.

In the course of arguing about that theory, however, I discovered something: the logistics of the poisoning are very vague. We only have Tyrion's POV, and there really isn't enough information there to explain exactly how it happened.

I can link you to some of the old threads if you like, but I warn you, it's fucking ball-achingly tedious. Take it from me: there's plenty of room for further developments with regard to Joffrey's poisoning.

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I'm not familiar with the jousting stuff that you mentioned. But it's an interesting to consider who actually won the fight. Seems to me like it was something of a draw. (I wonder if it'd normally be considered a mistrial for both fighters to die?)

Preston Jacobs points out that Oberyn's victory was well-assured:

 

Quote

 

"Ser Gregor." Qyburn shrugged. "I have examined him, as you commanded. The poison on the Viper's spear was manticore venom from the east, I would stake my life on that."

"Pycelle says no. He told my lord father that manticore venom kills the instant it reaches the heart."

"And so it does. But this venom has been thickened somehow, so as to draw out the Mountain's dying."

 

-- AFFC, Cersei II

 

Quote

"Just as Father intended," said Tyene. "Sisters, truly, I know the poison Father used. If his spear so much as broke the Mountain's skin, Clegane is dead, I do not care how big he was. Doubt your little sister if you like, but never doubt our sire."

-- ADWD, The Watcher

Oberyn did a lot more than break the Mountain's skin, so it seems that, had he wanted, he could have dispatched his foe quite easily. Preston's conclusion, which I support, is that killing the Mountain was of secondary importance:

Quote

"Dwarf," said the Red Viper, in a tone grown markedly less cordial, "spare me your Lannister lies. Is it sheep you take us for, or fools? My brother is not a bloodthirsty man, but neither has he been asleep for sixteen years. Jon Arryn came to Sunspear the year after Robert took the throne, and you can be sure that he was questioned closely. Him, and a hundred more. I did not come for some mummer's show of an inquiry. I came for justice for Elia and her children, and I will have it. Starting with this lummox Gregor Clegane . . . but not, I think, ending there. Before he dies, the Enormity That Rides will tell me whence came his orders, please assure your lord father of that."

 

-- ASOS, Tyrion V (my emphasis) (obviously)

The trial afforded Oberyn the opportunity to have the Mountain tell him wherefrom he got his orders, and to do so publicly. This was apparently worth the risk to his life inherent in letting the Mountain stay alive longer than the poison would normally have let him. I suspect that if he hadn't been killed when he was, he would have kept up the questioning, publicly torturing Clegane and daring anybody to stop him. How could they? It was a trial-by-battle, a sacred judicial rite; to intervene would surely have been grossly unthinkable.

With that in mind, he didn't win or lose outright. He achieved a small victory in getting Gregor Clegane to make a public confession, and another one in consigning Clegane to a slow and painful death. But Gregor didn't implicate Tywin in his confession, and worse, he got his fucking head cracked open and died. So, er... probably more of a loss overall, really.

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27 minutes ago, Seams said:

So (in the literary sense) the water game seems to be a game that is unique to Dorne, for what that's worth.

Well, it's probably unique to the Water Gardens, really. It's a game you can only play in shallow, still water, i.e. swimming pools and maybe some ponds or lakes.

But in terms of the significance of the game, there's this part:

Quote

They watched a nut-brown girl yank a towheaded boy off his brother's shoulders to tumble him headfirst into the pool.

-- AFFC, The Captain of Guards

Preston Jacobs again: this could refer to Dornish victory over the Lannisters, or even the rest of Westeros:

• "nut-brown" = Rhoynish = Dornish
• "towheaded" = blonde
• a girl beating a boy = the triumph of Dornish proto-feminism over the Westerosi patriarchy

Whether that's foreshadowing, or merely a hint at what Doran wants, remains to be seen.

[anjulibai]

Uh, my grandmother had 7 daughters. There's a family in Michigan with 13 sons. It happens. 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

15 minutes ago, anjulibai said:

Uh, my grandmother had 7 daughters. There's a family in Michigan with 13 sons. It happens. 

Oh shit, really? I thought a 1 in 128 chance meant it would never happen. Everything's changed!

Close the thread mods, some guys grandma had 7 daughters!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[anjulibai]

To quote Arya, I'm a girl. 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Oh no, I took a guess on a coin-flip and got it wrong, woe is me

 

[Winter Rose Crown]

Maybe he had fragile x syndrome. His sons just didn't live.

Interesting info on birth percentages WRT sex of the baby.

http://www.ingender.com/Gender-info/Odds-of-having-another-boy-or-girl.aspx

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

1 minute ago, Winter Rose Crown said:

Maybe he had fragile x syndrome. His sons just didn't live.

Is that a thing? Well, you learn something every day

[Seams]

9 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Well, I really don't agree that Doran would expect Joffrey's death to give the Dornish a legitimate claim to the throne. They know full well that the rest of the realm will regard Tommen as the king, which is exactly what happened. Dornish law only applies in Dorne. I suppose it gives Doran the opportunity to raise a stink, maybe as a distraction... but since he didn't take that opportunity, I have to assume that he had a different plan.

But - I think you're right about Joffrey's murder. There's quite possibly more to that story. My personal pet theory - which I fully acknowledge is full of holes - is that Joffrey really choked on the pie, and Pycelle lied about the autopsy results to get revenge on Tyrion.

In the course of arguing about that theory, however, I discovered something: the logistics of the poisoning are very vague. We only have Tyrion's POV, and there really isn't enough information there to explain exactly how it happened.

I can link you to some of the old threads if you like, but I warn you, it's fucking ball-achingly tedious. Take it from me: there's plenty of room for further developments with regard to Joffrey's poisoning.

You're right. Prince Doran and Prince Oberyn probably didn't expect Joffrey's death to lead directly to Myrcella as a captive monarch. I think they saw it as a key step in a larger strategy to create chaos. Maybe they knew it would inflame Cersei's desire to get her daughter back to King's Landing - torturing Cersei could be part of the strategy to make Tywin miserable before killing him. Activating the Sand Snakes and teaming up with an invading army seems to be the next step in their strategy.

I wonder whether the death of Tywin is actually a setback for them? He was their #1 target. Joffrey and the Mountain were means to an end, to some extent. A new development from the way things played out is that Tyrion strengthened his personal alliance with the Dornish. He already made one gesture by sending them Myrcella; now he killed Tywin in a way that was humiliating and not glorious at all.

My own pet theory, also full of holes, about Joffrey's death is that Tywin killed him with the help of Ser Ilyn Payne. Based on the subtext, I think that Ser Ilyn's silver sword with runes on it was ensorcered with a spell to kill any king who touched it. Maybe there was poison on the handle, but then Margaery would have been at risk, too, and I think everyone needed her alive so they had to single out Joffrey without hurting her.

But I love your pie theory - simple and with a clear motive by Pycelle. The pie is a big symbol - I think it may have to do with the kingdom as a whole and with rebirth. And Pycelle's name seems to refer to both pie and to a cell, which is another symbol - a place from which people emerge for rebirth. Maybe the pie itself is a cell, and the birds flying out represents the birth or rebirth of something.

It's probably also significant that the pie Joffrey ate was Tyrion's pie, and that it was covered with lemon sauce. The coating of sauce suggests a cloak to me, and lemons are associated with Sansa (and with Dany, of course). So the lemon "cloak" on Tyrion's serving of pie could symbolically represent Sansa and Tyrion together causing Joffrey to choke. (It doesn't suggest that they deliberately caused Joffrey's death. Just the symbolism.) To bring this meandering comment back to the main topic, Tyrion promised to give Joffrey a sharp dagger after Joffrey destroyed the book Tyrion had given him as a wedding gift. Like Oberyn's scorpion pin, the dagger could be seen as a symbolic death threat (especially because Tyrion was thinking that Joffrey had sponsored the murder attempt on Bran when he discussed the dagger with Joffrey).

There is a "kill the boy and let the man be born" situation with Joffrey's death, but I'm not sure which man is reborn. Originally I thought it was Tyrion, then I thought it was Gregor Clegane reborn as Ser Robert Strong, then I thought it's probably Jaime, who returns to King's Landing just after Joffrey dies.

As you point out, though, there are many threads already discussing Joffrey's death. Part of me would love to know exactly who killed Joffrey and how, but I enjoy the speculation, too. Maybe GRRM will let us debate the details without providing a definitive answer.

Rereading the feast scene yesterday, though, I realized there is also a strong Renly presence in the subtext. There is a 77-verse song that features Renly's ghost returning to gaze on the face of his lady love one more time after the battle of the Blackwater, followed immediately by Ser Garlan Tyrell, who wore Renly's armor in that battle, having a lot of dialogue with Tyrion and Sansa. So maybe Renly is the man who is briefly reborn. Except Ser Garlan's dialogue takes place before Joffrey's death. More likely, he represents some sort of specter at the feast. When Jaime arrives and discusses Joffrey's death with Tywin, Jaime repeatedly compares the murder of Joffrey to the murder of Renly using sorcery. Tywin repeatedly denies that any magic was involved. The poisoned wine theory is much more convenient for his purposes.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

10 minutes ago, Seams said:

I wonder whether the death of Tywin is actually a setback for them? He was their #1 target. Joffrey and the Mountain were means to an end, to some extent. A new development from the way things played out is that Tyrion strengthened his personal alliance with the Dornish. He already made one gesture by sending them Myrcella; now he killed Tywin in a way that was humiliating and not glorious at all.

Tywin's death has an interesting impact on the Dornish. If Doran's plan is motivated by revenge, then Tywin's death should have been the end of it. He might be disappointed that it didn't play out exactly as he'd hoped, but either way, the goals have been met, and everybody who was responsible for Elia's death is now themselves dead. Destroying the works of Tywin's hands after Tywin's already dead seems pointless if the reason you're doing it was to hurt Tywin.

Now, it's possible that the pointlessness is the point. The author has taken away the rationale for Doran's plan, and thus presented him with a choice about whether or not to keep going. ("The human heart in conflict with itself.) The fact that Doran obviously does plow ahead with it intensifies the tragedies that will surely ensue, and comments on the seductive and corrosive nature of vengeance and violence: Doran's been nursing his grievance for so long that he can't give it up, even when he knows he should.

But the other reason he might have for continuing is that it was never about revenge at all. Once again I'm indebted to Preston Jacobs: his series on the Dorne plot ultimately posits that Doran's endgame is probably something more like a Rhoynish revival, which might mean the capture of the Iron Throne by Doran's children and the extending of Dornish law to the whole of Westeros. This series is unfinished, but in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55N8Q6OINHg">this video</a> he proposes two interesting reasons for why Doran would want to do that. (Ceebs watching? Dorne is dying, and Doran's been to Chroyanne and seen how great his people used to be.)

We shall see.

10 minutes ago, Seams said:

My own pet theory, also full of holes, about Joffrey's death is that Tywin killed him with the help of Ser Ilyn Payne. Based on the subtext, I think that Ser Ilyn's silver sword with runes on it was ensorcered with a spell to kill any king who touched it. [...]

But I love your pie theory - simple and with a clear motive by Pycelle. The pie is a big symbol - I think it may have to do with the kingdom as a whole and with rebirth. And Pycelle's name seems to refer to both pie and to a cell, which is another symbol - a place from which people emerge for rebirth. Maybe the pie itself is a cell, and the birds flying out represents the birth or rebirth of something.

It's probably also significant that the pie Joffrey ate was Tyrion's pie, and that it was covered with lemon sauce.

[...]

Rereading the feast scene yesterday, though, I realized there is also a strong Renly presence in the subtext. There is a 77-verse song that features Renly's ghost returning to gaze on the face of his lady love one more time after the battle of the Blackwater, followed immediately by Ser Garlan Tyrell, who wore Renly's armor in that battle, having a lot of dialogue with Tyrion and Sansa. So maybe Renly is the man who is briefly reborn. Except Ser Garlan's dialogue takes place before Joffrey's death. More likely, he represents some sort of specter at the feast. When Jaime arrives and discusses Joffrey's death with Tywin, Jaime repeatedly compares the murder of Joffrey to the murder of Renly using sorcery. Tywin repeatedly denies that any magic was involved. The poisoned wine theory is much more convenient for his purposes.

Yes, my pie theory is pretty tasty. I started from the idea that anything Littlefinger (or any proven liar) says ought to be taken with a grain of salt, and it snowballed from there.

Of course, it's actually the Littlefinger side of the theory that has the holes in it. The King's Landing side is rock solid, so far at least: there's nothing that happens in King's Landing after Joffrey's death that debunks the theory, except maybe, on a meta-level, Pycelle's death. (If it is true, then what character is in a place to tell us now?)

But if Littlefinger's story isn't true, then we need to explain how he came to know certain things - I forget which - and more importantly, what was the deal with the hairnet? I don't have good answers to those questions.

It's interesting you mention the pie and the cream, though. I remember there was one guy who was adamant that the Tyrells were trying to poison Tyrion, and that either the pie or the lemon cream was the vessel. And it's interesting you mention Garlan, because there's a number of reasons to think he might've been involved, whoever the target and whatever was poisoned.

Your notion about Joffrey being killed by Tywin is very interesting, but I'm not sold on the idea of Tywin using magic. I don't think he even believes in magic, although I haven't read the text as closely as you.

Which reminds me: when I was only a show-watcher I was so convinced that Tywin and Olenna were going to have Joffrey killed, because he wasn't pliable enough, that I e-mailed my theory to myself: I wanted it date- and time-stamped for when I bragged to my friends that I'd seen it coming. So much for my predictive powers, eh?

[RedShirt47]

I think the chances of it being The Mountain are quite high. Cersei would have chosen The Mountain knowing that he had killed Oberyn's sister. This would have been done as an insult and to anger Oberyn into a mistake (they not knowing that he was fully prepared for this fight). Cersei would have been thinking "You killed my father, well our champion killed your sister, so there!".

The reason Oberyn couldn't just slit Tywin's throat is that there would be no need for a trial if he was so obviously guilty. There needed to be some doubt in order for him to get a trial and be in a position to request trial by combat.

[CJ McLannister]

If having 8 daughters is a 1:128 chance, we've met far more than 128 characters, so we should expect at least one instance.  However, it's more of 1:128 of people who have 8 children.  We don't have enough data on that.  The more remarkable thing might be that he had 8 children that all survived.  It's also possible that his gametes are irregular leading to a better than 50/50 chance of siring a female.  

[M_Tootles]

On 7/4/2016 at 9:14 PM, Seams said:

As for your second question, I don't know if Oberyn had hidden sons. (The pun-seeker in me would like to see more sons in Sunspear.) Although I do like the idea of the girl-power embodied by the Sand Snakes. Maybe we need to examine Maege Mormont and her daughters to figure out whether there is a hidden paramour or sons who are kept in a separate location in Oberyn's world. The Dornish are famous for being able to hide people, so it wouldn't surprise me.

That's funny re: the Mormonts, because Maege is Unella. Her younger daughters are probably one of the nameless haircutters. Maege happens to be hanging out with Doran's still-living mother the Princess of Dorne, Sarella aka Septa Scolera (google "gout sour milk") in disguise as Septas (along with Septa Mordane aka Moelle), and tongueless Joanna Lannister ain't far away, because she and Sarella are thick as thieves.

So Oberyn's mom and the mom of the Mormont daughters are in VERY close proximity to one another.

Re: what's being said about the need for revenge dying with Tywin: I think Doran aims at either the utter destruction of House Lannister (with the possible exception of Tyrion, assuming he thinks Lewyn [or Marwyn M.] is his father) or its takeover by Joanna. The latter could be construed to fit into a feminist master plan, certainly, and would mean Doran is still taking orders from his mother.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

2 hours ago, M_Tootles said:

That's funny re: the Mormonts, because Maege is Unella.

Oh gods, that too?

[Seams]

8 hours ago, M_Tootles said:

That's funny re: the Mormonts, because Maege is Unella. Her younger daughters are probably one of the nameless haircutters. Maege happens to be hanging out with Doran's still-living mother the Princess of Dorne, Sarella aka Septa Scolera (google "gout sour milk") in disguise as Septas (along with Septa Mordane aka Moelle), and tongueless Joanna Lannister ain't far away, because she and Sarella are thick as thieves.

So Oberyn's mom and the mom of the Mormont daughters are in VERY close proximity to one another.

Re: what's being said about the need for revenge dying with Tywin: I think Doran aims at either the utter destruction of House Lannister (with the possible exception of Tyrion, assuming he thinks Lewyn [or Marwyn M.] is his father) or its takeover by Joanna. The latter could be construed to fit into a feminist master plan, certainly, and would mean Doran is still taking orders from his mother.

Fascinating! The "sour milk gout" search led me to your Reddit post about the Princess of Dorne and all the other fantastic details of the previous generation. Do you realize you have probably found the answer to, "Where do whores go?" The whore term is Tywin's, but the women who plague him apparently become Silent Sisters or Septas. (And then come back to plague him again, it seems.) Since Maege is also a "hoary snark," (not to be confused with an Arya Stark) this may be supporting evidence.

I think this also may provide some support and explanation for Catelyn's arc to Lady Stoneheart. She starts out as something of a foil for Cersei, but then becomes an angry and vengeful silent women who leads a group of warriors . . .

You have probably already taken into account the Tarbeck daughters, Rohanne and Cyrelle, who were forced to join the Silent Sisters when Tywin destroyed Tarbeck Hall and killed most of their family, including throwing Rohanne's toddler son down a well. How does that fit with your Serala / Melara theory? I kept wondering why GRRM included the detail about the little Tarbeck boy in the well, and whether it was connected to the Melara story. I hope your explanation is correct!

If the Silent Sisters is full of women with a mission, think of the Glamours they could create: they could probably take finger bones from thousands of corpses every year and no one would notice! Who is going to count out all the finger bones when their loved one's skeleton arrives for permanent burial or other disposition.

I had noticed that Cersei seemed to have a bad relationship with crones and tried to puzzle out some of the crone characteristics in a post here. Your theory definitely helps to make sense of some of the patterns I couldn't quite work out.

I realize this is straying from the Oberyn topic in the OP, and I apologize. Folks, if you check out that Reddit post for which I just provided a link, you will find a lot of Oberyn and Doran information to enrich your anticipation of the last two books! Or maybe for a whole new "prequel" series to ASOIAF.

[Ser Leftwich]

The rumor that Gregor was guilty of the deaths of Elia and Rhaenys was wide-spread. If Oberyn got any confirmation of it in KL, he could accuse Gregor of the crime and Gregor would have to defend himself.

Oberyn got offered a different route to the same end and he took it.

 

[M_Tootles]

4 hours ago, Seams said:

Fascinating! The "sour milk gout" search led me to your Reddit post about the Princess of Dorne and all the other fantastic details of the previous generation. Do you realize you have probably found the answer to, "Where do whores go?" The whore term is Tywin's, but the women who plague him apparently become Silent Sisters or Septas. (And then come back to plague him again, it seems.) Since Maege is also a "hoary snark," (not to be confused with an Arya Stark) this may be supporting evidence.

Interesting... if we don't put Tysha in the brothel in Braavos. The "hoary" thing suggests we ought not.

4 hours ago, Seams said:

I think this also may provide some support and explanation for Catelyn's arc to Lady Stoneheart. She starts out as something of a foil for Cersei, but then becomes an angry and vengeful silent women who leads a group of warriors . . .

An anti-Joanna, almost? I mean, they both seek vengeance, but Cat's "doing it wrong"? I like it.

4 hours ago, Seams said:

You have probably already taken into account the Tarbeck daughters, Rohanne and Cyrelle, who were forced to join the Silent Sisters when Tywin destroyed Tarbeck Hall and killed most of their family, including throwing Rohanne's toddler son down a well. How does that fit with your Serala / Melara theory? I kept wondering why GRRM included the detail about the little Tarbeck boy in the well, and whether it was connected to the Melara story. I hope your explanation is correct!

Oh shit. No. Nice catch, gotta revisit. The Serala / Melara thing is really speculative. Since writing that stuff I've become more and more convinced that Aegon's madness is the product of attempted skinchanging. I haven't written anything other than the vague speculations about this in there, but it might mean it's more likely that the FM were behind the Defiance and Tywin was just being opportunistic.

Re: that idea: Either click my name on reddit or go to my blog asongoficeandtootles to read up on my theory that that's the Faceless Men's ultimate weapon: they mummer, they glamor, they do the "face-surgery", and ultimately they skin-change men, which is why Arya, who can warg Nymeria from 2000 miles, is such a hot commodity.

 

4 hours ago, Seams said:

If the Silent Sisters is full of women with a mission, think of the Glamours they could create: they could probably take finger bones from thousands of corpses every year and no one would notice! Who is going to count out all the finger bones when their loved one's skeleton arrives for permanent burial or other disposition.

Yup. And, as you'll read in my Faceless Man High Septon "Balon" theory, they took Tywin's face to use as a "mask" and glamored one back on either his body or the body of a corpse dead a bit longer (thus the stench). It might be the glamor weakening that causes the twisting smile.

4 hours ago, Seams said:

I had noticed that Cersei seemed to have a bad relationship with crones and tried to puzzle out some of the crone characteristics in a post here. Your theory definitely helps to make sense of some of the patterns I couldn't quite work out.

I realize this is straying from the Oberyn topic in the OP, and I apologize. Folks, if you check out that Reddit post for which I just provided a link, you will find a lot of Oberyn and Doran information to enrich your anticipation of the last two books! Or maybe for a whole new "prequel" series to ASOIAF.

 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

20 hours ago, Seams said:

If the Silent Sisters is full of women with a mission...

Wow, now there's an interesting thought. We've previously assumed that organisation to be wholly innocuous, but if they have an agenda of their own - or if their members are willing to use the organisation for their own agenda - basically the same thing... mmm. It occurs there's a lot of mysteries that somehow tangentially involve the Silent Sisters...

Alright, there's only two: Tywin's corpse and Ned's bones. But I feel like there's more that I'm forgetting. Anybody help?

20 hours ago, Seams said:

I realize this is straying from the Oberyn topic in the OP, and I apologize.

Hey, I don't mind, say what you want. I'm not gonna lay any rule trip on you, maaaaaaaan

[Eden-Mackenzie]

If I remember correctly, Tyrion's proposal for an alliance with Doran Martell included Myrcella and Trystane's engagement, a seat on the Small Council, and justice for Elia, Rhaenys, and Aegon. Since Gregor was well known to be involved in their deaths, a chance to confront Gregor seemed likely. Of course, Oberyn was really after Tywin, but no one in King's Landing was expecting Oberyn to be the one to come to fill the Small Council seat. 

As far as the timing of Oberyn's departure for/arrival in King's Landing, he probably waited until Myrcella arrived, fulfilling part one of the deal, before leaving. He also had to collect his entourage, which, as we learned from Tyrion and Pod, consisted of a significant portion of the Lords and Ladies of Dorne. Preparing for and making a journey of that size over that distance would have taken a decent amount of time. 

Westerosi genetics follows its own rules. Oberyn having eight daughters and no sons is no different than Davos having seven sons and no daughters, or Baratheon blue eyes being dominant, or Targaryen pale hair and purple eyes being dominant unless mixed with Dornish, or 300 years of Targaryen inbreeding not resulting in physical deformities like the Hapsburg chin.